How Active Are Retailers in EMEA? - Internews Richard Ellis How... · retailers.! Fashion and...
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 1 How Active Are Retailers in EMEA? CB Richard Ellis European Retail Outlook MAPIC, November 2009
Transcript of How Active Are Retailers in EMEA? - Internews Richard Ellis How... · retailers.! Fashion and...
CB Richard Ellis | Page 1
How Active Are
Retailers in EMEA?
CB Richard Ellis
European Retail Outlook
MAPIC, November 2009
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
Rental growth slowing dramatically
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Se
p-8
8
Se
p-8
9
Se
p-9
0
Se
p-9
1
Se
p-9
2
Se
p-9
3
Se
p-9
4
Se
p-9
5
Se
p-9
6
Se
p-9
7
Se
p-9
8
Se
p-9
9
Se
p-0
0
Se
p-0
1
Se
p-0
2
Se
p-0
3
Se
p-0
4
Se
p-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Se
p-0
7
Se
p-0
8
Se
p-0
9
Office Retail Industrial
% per annum
CB Richard Ellis EU-15 Rent Indices
Source: CB Richard Ellis
CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
GDP Forecasts
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Po
lan
d
No
rwa
y
Fra
nce
US
A
Po
rtu
ga
l
Be
lgiu
m
De
nm
ark
Sp
ain
Eu
rop
ea
n U
nio
n
Cze
ch
Re
pu
blic
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
UK
Sw
ed
en
Bu
lga
ria
Ge
rma
ny
Ita
ly
Hu
ng
ary
Ru
ssia
Ire
lan
d
Source: Consensus Economics (October 2009)
Consensus forecast for GDP growth 2009
CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
January 2009
February
March
AprilMay
JuneJuly
August
September
October
France Germany
UK Spain
Poland Western Europe
Changing economic sentiment
% growth per annum
Source: Consensus Economics (October 2009)
How forecasts for GDP growth in 2010 have changed over time
CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
Unemployment has risen sharply
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
7.50%
8.00%
8.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
Se
p-9
3
Se
p-9
4
Se
p-9
5
Se
p-9
6
Se
p-9
7
Se
p-9
8
Se
p-9
9
Se
p-0
0
Se
p-0
1
Se
p-0
2
Se
p-0
3
Se
p-0
4
Se
p-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Se
p-0
7
Se
p-0
8
Se
p-0
9
EU 15 Unemployment rate
Source: Eurostat (September 2009)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Se
p-9
9
Se
p-0
0
Se
p-0
1
Se
p-0
2
Se
p-0
3
Se
p-0
4
Se
p-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Se
p-0
7
Se
p-0
8
Se
p-0
9
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
European Consumer Confidence (r)
Source: Eurostat
Consumer confidence remains fragile …
CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Se
p-9
9
Se
p-0
0
Se
p-0
1
Se
p-0
2
Se
p-0
3
Se
p-0
4
Se
p-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Se
p-0
7
Se
p-0
8
Se
p-0
9
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
EU-27 Rental Growth (l) European Consumer Confidence (r)
… which is a key driver of rents
Source: Eurostat, CB Richard Ellis
CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
European Retailer Sentiment, October 2009
France
UK
Ire
SpainPor
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Russia
Latvia
Est
Lith
Belarus
Ukraine
PolandGermany
Den
NL
Bel
SwzAustria Hungary Romania
TurkeyAlb
FYRM
Gr
Bulgaria
SerbiaB&H
CrSlove
SlovaCzech
Italy
Iceland
Mol
Above average and rising
Below average and falling
Below average and rising
Above average and falling
Retailer sentiment
Source: Eurostat
CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
European Retail Themes
Peter Gold
Senior Director
Head of EMEA Cross Border Retail
CB Richard Ellis, London
The latest in our
global series of
Special Reports
focusing on the
retail sector …
The Survey
! 220 “formerly active” retailers
! 18 different nationalities
! 24 different sub-sectors across all types of retail
! 200 still actively looking to expand
Retailer Expansion Plans
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Not Specified 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 40+
Proposed Store Acquisitions to Dec 2010
Number of Stores
Retailer groups
! Luxury and Business FashionLuxury clothing, jewellery and business clothing retailers.
! Mid Range FashionFashion and casual fashion retailers.
! Value ClothingValue and discount clothing and denim retailers.
! Specialist ClothingFootwear, underwear, sportswear, childrenswear and accessories retailers.
! Grocery, Food and Beverages (F&B)Fast food, supermarkets, restaurants and coffee retailers.
! Homeware & ElectronicsElectronics, DIY retailers, dept stores and furniture retailers.
! OtherChemists, pet stores, books, music and dvd retailers.
Acquisition Index by Sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Grocery/F&B Specialist
Clothing
Other Value
Clothing
Overall
Average
Mid Range
Fashion
Homeware &
Electronics
Luxury and
Business
Fashion
Indicating relative levels of intended expansion
Retailer Expansion Plans by Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1-5 6-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 40+
Luxury and Business Fashion Homeware and Electronics
Number of Stores
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1-5 6-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 40+
Value Clothing Mid Range Fashion
Number of Stores
Retailer Expansion Plans by Sector
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1-5 6-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 40+
Specialist Clothing Grocery, Food & Beverage
Number of Stores
Retailer Expansion Plans by Sector
Countries where retailers are looking to expand
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
Spa
in
Polan
dIta
ly
Aus
tria
Unite
d Kingd
om
Rom
ania
Neth
erland
s
Russ
ia
Belgium
Cze
ch R
epubl
ic
Switz
erland
Slova
kia
Proportion of all 200 retailers targeting each country
Proportion of Retailers Targeting a Country
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
Spa
in
Pol
and
Italy
Aus
tria
Unite
d Kin
gdom
Rom
ania
Rus
sia
Bel
gium
Cze
ch R
epublic
Switz
erla
nd
Net
herla
nds
Overseas Retailers All Retailers
Strong focus on the core, mature markets
Target markets – with country groupings
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Cent
ral E
urope
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
Sou
ther
n Eur
ope
Spa
inIta
ly
Ben
elux
Aus
tria
Unite
d Kingd
om
MENA
Russ
ia
Nord
ics
Por
tuga
l
Fringe
CEE
Ireland
Proportion of all 200 retailers targeting each country/region
“Growth” sectors are more active everywhere
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ger
man
y
Cen
tral E
urop
e
Franc
e
Sou
ther
n Eur
ope
Spa
inIta
ly
Ben
elux
Uni
ted
Kingd
om
Aus
tria
Rus
sia
MENA
Por
tuga
l
Nor
dics
Fringe
CEE
Irela
nd
Overall retailer interest
Specialist Clothing
Value Clothing
Grocery/F&B
Luxury sector is very “core focussed”
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Franc
e
Ger
man
yIta
ly
Spa
in
Ben
elux
Uni
ted
Kingd
om
Cen
tral E
urop
e
MENA
Aus
tria
Sou
ther
n Eur
ope
Rus
sia
Por
tuga
l
Irela
nd
Nor
dics
Fringe
CEE
Overall retailer interest
Luxury and Business Fashion
Number of intended acquisitions by operating model
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Less than 10 Over 20 Over 30 Over 40
Owner-operators Franchisers
Anticipated new store openings
Likely operating model by target market
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Cen
tral E
urop
e
Sou
ther
n Eur
ope
Rus
sia
Fringe
CEE
MENA
Nor
dics
Ger
man
y
Aus
tria
Franc
e
Spa
inIta
ly
Ben
elux
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Por
tuga
l
Irela
nd
More likely to franchise More likely to owner-operate
Emerging
MarketsMature
Markets
Proportion of retailers using each model targeting a particular market
Countries where retailers are looking to expand
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
Spa
in
Polan
dIta
ly
Aus
tria
Unite
d Kingd
om
Rom
ania
Neth
erland
s
Russ
ia
Belgium
Cze
ch R
epubl
ic
Switz
erland
Slova
kia
Proportion of active retailers targeting each country
Germany
Karsten Burbach
Senior Director
Head of Retail, Germany
CB Richard Ellis, Frankfurt
Countries where retailers are looking to expand
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
Spa
in
Polan
dIta
ly
Aus
tria
Unite
d Kingd
om
Rom
ania
Neth
erland
s
Russ
ia
Belgium
Cze
ch R
epubl
ic
Switz
erland
Slova
kia
Proportion of active retailers targeting each country
Spain
Alex Barbany
Director
Head of Retail, Spain
CB Richard Ellis, Barcelona
Countries where retailers are looking to expand
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
Spa
in
Polan
dIta
ly
Aus
tria
Unite
d Kingd
om
Rom
ania
Neth
erland
s
Russ
ia
Belgium
Cze
ch R
epubl
ic
Switz
erland
Slova
kia
Proportion of active retailers targeting each country
Poland
Magda Fratczak
Director
Head of Retail, Poland
CB Richard Ellis, Warsaw
Countries where retailers are looking to expand
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
Spa
in
Polan
dIta
ly
Aus
tria
Unite
d Kingd
om
Rom
ania
Neth
erland
s
Russ
ia
Belgium
Cze
ch R
epubl
ic
Switz
erland
Slova
kia
Proportion of active retailers targeting each country
France
Chris Igwe
Head of Retail, France
CB Richard Ellis, Paris
North America
Annette Healey
Senior Vice President
Retail Services
CB Richard Ellis, New York
Asia
Dominic Stead
Executive Director
Client Development, Asia
CB Richard Ellis, Hong Kong
Conclusions
! A challenging time for retailers
! Consumers will remain cautious, even as the
economy recovers as we move through 2010
! “Flight to quality” will persist for a while
! Emerging markets will recover their attraction
! Reduced development pipeline could limit entry
! For some, this is a time of opportunity
For more information ….
For further details of any of our retail or research
activities around the world, please contact:
Nick AxfordHead of EMEA Research & Consulting
CB Richard Ellis
St Martin's Court
10 Paternoster Row
London
EC4M 7HP
DDI +44 (0)207 182 3039
Mob +44 (0)7799 582226
Sw +44 (0)207 182 2000
Fax +44 (0)207 182 3332
Peter GoldHead of EMEA Cross Border Retail
CB Richard Ellis
Kingsley House
1a Wimpole Street
London
W1G 0RE
DDI +44 (0)207 182 2969
Mob +44 (0)7917 575 370
Sw +44 (0)207 182 2000
Fax +44 (0)207 182 2839
Or visit our website http://www.cbre.com
How Active Are
Retailers in EMEA?
CB Richard Ellis
European Retail Outlook
MAPIC, November 2009
