Housing Market Update - Cal West Quarter 2015 Report Final...SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association...
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Produced by City of San José Department of Housing City of San José Housing Market Update Q 3 2 0 1 5
Transcript of Housing Market Update - Cal West Quarter 2015 Report Final...SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association...
Produced by City of San José Department of HousingCity of San José
Housing Market Update
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• San José is the third most expensive rental market and the second
most expensive homeownership market in the nation 1
• To date San José has met 3% of its annual affordable housing RHNA
goal and 81% of its market-rate RHNA goal2
• Rents continue to set records, growing 11% year over year (YoY)
• Renters must earn $54/hour ($112,520/year) to afford the average
rent for a two bedroom, two-bath apartment 3
• Median single-family home prices remain high, up 14% YoY
1 Based on NHC Report Paycheck to Paycheck 2015 - http://www2.nhc.org/chp/p2p/
2 San José’s Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) January 2014 – October 2022 is 35,080 units; annualized goal is 3,987 units assuming an 8.8 year RHNA cycle
3 Based on Q3 2015 realAnswers average rents, income calculation assumes rents are 30% of income , 40 hour work week ,and a single income household
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 20152
Q3 2015 San José Housing Market
SOURCE: City of San José Housing Department, Q3 2015
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 20153
2015 Multi-Family Permit Activity Trends Low
Compared to 2014
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015To-Date
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Multifamily Market Rate Multifamily Affordable
SOURCE: realAnswers – Q3 2015 - Data only includes rental projects with 50 apartments or more
$1,831
$2,257
$2,813
$3,269
$2,486
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 20154
Average Rent Up 3% Quarterly and 11% YoY
SOURCE: realAnswers Data Q3, 2015– Data only includes rental projects with 50 apartments or more
6.3%
5 %
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 20155
SJ Vacancy Rate Rises From 4.7% in Q2 to 6.3%
in Q3 2015, Above the “Natural“ Rate
5.3%
SOURCE: Zillow.com, Nov 4, 2015
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 20156
Rents in Some Areas Trend Higher than Average
Citywide Rents
Project 1BR 2BR
Average Citywide
Rents
(Q3 2015
realAnswers)
$2,257 $2,813
Crescent Village
(North SJ)$2,595 - $3,275 $3,010 - $4,070
North Park
(North SJ)$2,445 - $4,060 $2,890 - $3,635
One South Market
(Downtown SJ)$2,600 - $2,887 $3,213 - $8,831
101 San Fernando
(Downtown SJ)$2,296 - $2,632 $3,044 - $4,291
Ascent Apartments
(Edenvale SJ)$2,380 - $2,669 $2,788 - $3,813
SOURCE: Employment Development Department (EDD) – July 2015 Wages; Income to rent calculation assumes rent at 30% of income and a single income household
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 20157
Market Rents Significantly Out of Reach for
Many San José Workers
SOURCE: National Association of Home Builders, Housing Opportunity Index Q3 2015
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 2015
San José Housing Affordability Remains Low
Relative to the Nation (6th least affordable)
62%
18%
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Less than 1 out of 5 families in San José can afford a median priced home
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San Jose, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara Metropolitan Area HOI National HOI
SOURCE: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 2015
3.89%
0.14%
2.59 %
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 20159
Interest Rates Remain Low
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
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Inte
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Fixed Rate Adjustable Rate Federal Funds Rate
SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association of Realtors, September 2015
$950,000
$850,000
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 201510
Single-Family Median Home Prices Fall Slightly from
Record Highs of Q2 2015, up 14% YoY
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15
Med
ian
Sin
gle
Fam
ily H
om
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rice (
$)
Santa Clara County San José
SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association of Realtors , September 2015
$610,000
$455,000
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 201511
Townhome/Condo Median Prices Drop 5%(SCC)
and 17%(SJ) from Q2 2015 Record Highs
$175,000
$225,000
$275,000
$325,000
$375,000
$425,000
$475,000
$525,000
$575,000
$625,000
Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15
Med
ian
To
wh
om
e P
rice (
$)
Santa Clara County San José
SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association of Realtors, MLS Listings September 2015
624
534
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 201512
858
New Listings & Sales Down 12%, Total Listings
Up 22% From Q2 2015
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San
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New Listings Sales Total Listings
SOURCE: Santa Clara County Association of Realtors September 2015
27 Days
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 201513
24 Days
Days on Market Remains Low but Rises From
Record Lows of Q2 2015
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Single Family Condo/Townhomes
SOURCE: San José – PropertyRadar.com Septmeber 2015
San José Housing Market Update : Q3 201514
Foreclosure Filings Stay Low, at Pre-Recession
Levels
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Notice of Defaults Auctions Bank-owned
