Household projections in Scotland
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Transcript of Household projections in Scotland
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General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Household projections in Scotland
Esther RoughsedgeGeneral Register Office for Scotland
(GROS)
www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/household-estimates-projections/index.html
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General Register Office
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Talk outline
• How we produce household projections
• What they show
• Potential ways to improve them
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General Register Office
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Purpose of household projections
• Mainly used to inform local authority decisions about future housing and service need – Need to know projected number of households, and
type.
• GROS produces projections in a consistent way across the country.
• Local projections may be used in strategic plans, where this can be justified.
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How they are produced
• Produced every 2 years, to cover a 20-year period.
• Based on population projections;
• Subtract communal establishment population (from Census);
• Project household composition information from the 1991 + 2001 Censuses.
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Categories used
• 32 local authorities in Scotland• 7 household types:
• 10 age groups for the head of household:16-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
1 adult (male) 1 adult (female)2 adults 2+ adults, 1+ children
1 adult, 1 child1 adult, 2+ children3+ adults
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Household composition
• ‘Head of household’ = first person on Census form.
• The number of heads of households = the number of households.
• Headship rates: the proportion of people who head a household within an age group, by household type and LA.
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Example of headship rates:Aberdeen, 2001: age 35-44
Household type Number Proportion
(= headship rate)
1 adult: male
1 adult: female
2 adults
1 adult, 1 child
1 adult, 2+ children
2+ adults, 1+ children
3+ adults
People who are not a head of household
Total number of people in age group
3,460
1,857
2,451
898
972
8,353
796
12,693
31,480
0.110
0.059
0.078
0.029
0.031
0.265
0.025
0.403
1.000
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Aberdeen: households with 2 adults Headship rate × household population = households
Age group Headship rate Household population
No. households
16-24
25-29
30-34
35-44
45-54
55-59
60-64
65-74
75-84
85+
0.101
0.183
0.138
0.078
0.152
0.265
0.315
0.324
0.258
0.162
25,931
14,883
15,051
30,397
27,366
12,291
9,498
17,027
10,901
2,541
2,623
2,728
2,071
2,378
4,147
3,252
2,987
5,522
2,812
411
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General Register Office
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Advantages / disadvantages of this methodology
• Advantages– Robust– Fairly easy to understand and interpret– The data we require are available
• Disadvantages– Based on past trends– Reliant on Census data
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Differences from other parts of UK
• England and Wales:– Different household types (include marital status, but
not necessarily children).
– Incorporate Labour Force Survey results.
– Include age cohort effects.
– Projections produced every 4-6 yrs.
• Northern Ireland:– Similar to Scotland, but use household propensities
rather than headship rates – based on household size.
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General Register Office
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Results of household projections for Scotland: 2004-2024
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Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2031
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
1 2004-based projection.
Projected 1
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Projected change in population by age group: 2004-2024
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85+
Age group
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Population projections 2004-2024Average 1% increase in population; wide geographic variations
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Abe
rdee
n C
ity
Dun
dee
City
Eile
an S
iar
Inve
rcly
de
She
tland
Isla
nds
Eas
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Wes
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Ren
frew
shire
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Gla
sgow
City
Ang
us
Eas
t Ayr
shire
Sou
th A
yrsh
ire
Mid
loth
ian
Dum
frie
s &
Gal
low
ay
Ork
ney
Isla
nds
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Eas
t Ren
frew
shire
Hig
hlan
d
Mor
ay
Arg
yll &
But
e
Sou
th L
anar
kshi
re
Stir
ling
Per
th &
Kin
ross
Fal
kirk
Abe
rdee
nshi
re
Fife
Edi
nbur
gh, C
ity o
f
Eas
t Lot
hian
Sco
ttish
Bor
ders
Wes
t Lot
hian
Scotland average
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Household projections 2004-2024Average 13% increase in households
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Abe
rdee
n C
ity
Dun
dee
City
Eile
an S
iar
Inve
rcly
de
She
tland
Isla
nds
Eas
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Wes
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Ren
frew
shire
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Gla
sgow
City
Ang
us
Eas
t Ayr
shire
Sou
th A
yrsh
ire
Mid
loth
ian
Dum
frie
s &
Gal
low
ay
Ork
ney
Isla
nds
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Eas
t Ren
frew
shire
Hig
hlan
d
Mor
ay
Arg
yll &
But
e
Sou
th L
anar
kshi
re
Stir
ling
Per
th &
Kin
ross
Fal
kirk
Abe
rdee
nshi
re
Fife
Edi
nbur
gh, C
ity o
f
Eas
t Lot
hian
Sco
ttish
Bor
ders
Wes
t Lot
hian
Scotland average
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Household type, 2004 & 2024: Average household size is getting smaller
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1 adult 2 adults 1 adult withchild(ren)
2+ adults withchild(ren)
3+ adults
2004
2024
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Age of head of household, 2004 & 2024:Greatest increase in older age groups
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85+
Age of head of household
2004
2024
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Percentage of people living alone, 2024: 1 in 4 will live alone
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
16-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Age group
MalesFemales
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Summary of household projections results, 2004-2024
• Overall number of households up 13%, despite smaller change in population.
• Average household size decreasing.• More people living alone.• Ageing population – more households with
older people, fewer households with children.
• Large geographical variations.
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Media coverage
• ‘Lonely future for Scots as one-person families soar’ - Scotsman
• ‘1 in 4 will live alone’ - Herald
• ‘City to grow a quarter by 2024’ - Edinburgh Evening News
• ‘Church says Labour policies to blame for death of the family’ - Mail
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Notes on household projections
• Projections are based on past trends.• They don’t take account of future policy
initiatives / planned housing developments (or bird flu).
• There is some demand to include additional information, e.g., economic predictions, or plans for future housing developments. But it would be difficult to do this consistently.
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Potential ways to improve our household projections
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Incorporate survey results
• Information on household type is based on last 2 Censuses.
• Household estimates constrain the figures – But no information on household type
• Could include results of surveys (e.g., Scottish Household Survey, Labour Force Survey) to update this at national level.
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Different geographic areas
• Current household projections are for: – Councils
– Structure plan areas
• Changes to planning system need projections for ‘city regions’ and national parks.
Require small area households estimates, to form ‘building blocks’ for projections for different areas.
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Other potential improvements
• Update communal establishment information.
• Review the household types and age groups used.
• Produce variant projections?
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Future PhD
• Ashley McCormick will start a PhD supervised by Paul Williamson on incorporating social trends into household projections.
• Combine headship rates at sub-national level with dynamic micro-simulation to project household and family formation.
• Experiment with different headship definitions.
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Summary: potential improvements
• Incorporate survey results to update information on household composition.
• Produce projections for different areas.• Update communal establishment
information.• Variant projections. • Potential alternatives to projections
methodology and headship definitions.
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Any questions?