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House No. 423-A, St. No. 1, F-11/1, Islamabad. Email: [email protected]

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Gul Dad

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Monthly Security Assessment Report – May 2015 1

CMC/PICSS, Islamabad Copyright @ 2015. All Rights Reserved.

List of Acronyms

AJK Azad Jammu & Kashmir

Arst Arrested by Security Forces

C Civilian

CBA Cross Border Attack

FATA Federally Administrated Tribal Areas

GB Gilgit-Baltistan

GrA Grenade Attack

IED Improvised Explosive Device or Handmade bombs

ICT Islamabad Capital Territory

KP, KPK Khyber Pakhtonkhwa

K Kidnapping

KK Kidnapping and Killing

Kdnp Kidnappings by militants

M Militant

MA Militant Assault

MAs Militant Attacks

MC Militant Clash

MrS Mortar Shelling

Nos Number of incidents

PGR, RZ Razakar (Pro government tribal militias)

RA Rocket Attack

SFAs Security Forces Actions

SFP Security Forces Personnel

SA Suicide Attack

TK Targeted Killing



Table of Contents

List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................ 1

Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 4

Overall Violence ......................................................................................................... 6

Militant Activities ................................................................................................... 7

Security Forces Actions ........................................................................................... 9

Significant development of the Month ...................................................................... 10

India Accused of supporting militancy in Pakistan ................................................ 10

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations & Signing of ISI-NDS MoU ..................................... 11

Investigation into Safoora Incident – Some Harsh Realities ................................... 13

Mastung Massacres: A New Dimension to the Balochistan Quagmire ..................... 14

PM and Army Chief’s Visit to ISI Headquarters ...................................................... 15

Security Situation in Baluchistan .............................................................................. 17

Security Situation in FATA ........................................................................................ 18

Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtoonkha (KP) ........................................................ 20

Security Situation in Sindh ....................................................................................... 21

Security situation in AJ&K, GB, ICT, and Punjab........................................................ 22

Key Points: ............................................................................................................... 22

Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 23



List of Tables

Table 1: Category-Wise Break–Up of SFAs and MAs (May 2015) ................................. 6

Table 2: Province-Wise detail of SFAs and MAs (May 2015) .......................................................... 7

Table 3: Province wise detail of Militant Activities (May 2015) ....................................................... 8

Table 4: Nature/ Type of Militant Attacks (May 2015) ................................................................. 9

Table 5: Province-wise breakup of security forces actions (May 2015) ........................................... 10

Table 6: District wise detail of militant activities in Baluchistan (May 2015) ..................................... 17

Table 7: Type of Militant Attacks in Baluchistan (May 2015) ....................................................... 18

Table 8: Agency wise break up of Militant Activities – FATA (May 2015) .................. 19

Table 9: Type of Militant Attacks in FATA (May 2015) .............................................. 19

Table 10: District wise spread of Militant Attacks in KP (May 2015) ......................... 20

Table 11: Type of Militant Attacks in KP (May 2015) ................................................. 21

Table 14: District-Wise Breakup of MAs in Sindh (May 2015) ...................................................... 22

Table 15: Types of MAs in Sindh (May 2015) .......................................................................... 22

List of Figures

Figure 1: Geographical Spread of SFAs and MAs (May 2015) ......................................................... 6

Figure 2: Geographical distribution of MAs & their impact (May 2015)............................................. 8

Figure 3: Type of Attacks– Impact (May 2015) .......................................................................... 9

Figure 4: Month Wise Comparison of Militant Activities in Baluchistan .......................................... 18

Figure 5: Month-wise comparison of MAs in FATA ................................................... 19

Figure 6: Monthly Comparison of Militant Activities in KP ....................................... 21

Figure 8: Month-wise comparison of MAs in Sindh ................................................................... 22



Executive Summary

During the month of May, militant activities and resultant deaths in the country witnessed

relative increase as compared to previous months though government and security forces are

making continuous efforts to further improve security situation in the country. During the month,

162 overall incidents related to anti-state violence by the militants and counter-insurgency

operations by the state were monitored that caused 311 deaths, 136 others injured, three people

were kidnapped by the militants and at least 503 suspects were arrested.

Out of given 162 overall incidents, there were 75 militant activities that caused 174 deaths

while wounding 116 others. As compared to previous month (April), there has been more than

33pc increase in militant activities across the country, more than 60pc increase in number of

deaths and more than 16pc increase in number of injuries. This increase in number of militant

attacks has been witnessed across the country except FATA though this increase in Balochistan is

much higher than other regions. In Balochistan, there has been almost 62pc increase in number

militant attacks, almost 32pc increase in number of deaths and more than 37pc increase in

number of injuries. FATA witnessed 21pc reduction in number of attacks, KP 22pc increase while

Sindh witnessed 50pc increase in militant attacks.

Although militants are still not able to plan and execute attacks on major targets like

military installations (except targeted killing of police officers in Karachi) they have been found

quite active in targeting general population/ soft targets. The month witnessed two high profile

attacks including a sectarian Safoora incident in which Ismaili community was targeted in Karachi

(Sindh) while the other was massacre of Pasthun passengers in Mastung. In addition, the son of

President Manmoon Hussain was also targeted in an IED blast in Hub (Balochistan) but he

remained safe.

Balochistan has witnessed increase in militant activities wherein 34 militant activities were

reported that caused 44 deaths and 51 injuries. Given the allegations of Indian intelligence agency

RAW’s involvement in Balochistan and acknowledgement of such policy by Indian defence

minister, the latest upsurge in violence in the province seems to be externally driven, which is

apparently aimed at sabotaging Pakistan-China Economic Corridor. The incident of Mastung

passenger killings, who were ethnically Pashtun in origin, brought about a new dimension to an

already fragile security situation of the province. Targeting Pashtun population is meant to pit



ethnic communities of Baloch and Pashtuns which could have far reaching implications on security

and social condition of the province.

The month witnessed some increase in IED based attacks as 28 incidents were reported in

May in which militants resorted to use of IED against 22 incidents in the previous month. The

month also witnessed phenomenal increase in incidents of targeted killing during the month of

May as 21 incidents of targeted killing were reported during the month against 11 in the previous

month. This increase in targeted killing was more pronounced in Balochistan though KP also

witnessed some increase while number of incidents of targeted killing remained same in Sindh

and FATA as compared to previous month.

There has been slight reduction in security forces actions. During May, 87 security forces

actions were carried out in which 137 people were killed, 12 injured and more than 501 suspects

were arrested. While intensity in ongoing military operation in North Waziristan has been

increased where security forces have targeted militants (including foreigners) in Shawal valley,

there have been some less activities reported from Khyber where forces have cleared most part of

the agency in operation Khyber II, which is a sequel to operation Khyber-I in the agency.



Overall Violence

The month of May witnessed increase in overall violence (anti-state activities by militants

and counter-insurgency operations by the state) as compared to April. In 162 incidents of overall

violence, 311 people were killed including 30 SFPs, 10 PGRs, 166 militants and 105 civilians while

136 others were injured including 68 SFPs, 11 militants and 57 civilians. 503 suspects were

arrested while three people were kidnapped by the militants. Balochistan once again witnessed

highest number of incidents although the highest number of deaths were reported from FATA.

Breakup of overall violence is given in Table-1, detailed break-up of violence in Table-2 and

geographical spread/ impact of violence is given in Figure-1.

Table 1: Category-Wise Break–Up of SFAs and MAs (May 2015)

Category Nos Killed Injured

Arst Kdnp SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

SFAs 87 1 0 136 0 137 9 0 3 0 12 501 0

MAs 75 29 10 30 105 174 59 0 8 57 116 2 3

Total 162 30 10 166 105 311 68 0 11 57 136 503 3

Figure 1: Geographical Spread of SFAs and MAs (May 2015)



Table 2: Province-Wise detail of SFAs and MAs (May 2015)

Region Nos Killed Injured


Balochistan 73 3 0 19 41 63 23 0 3 33 59 202 3

FATA 24 13 8 114 6 141 30 0 8 7 45 4 0

ICT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0

KPK 34 9 2 4 8 23 10 0 0 7 17 127 0

Punjab 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0

Sindh 24 5 0 29 50 84 5 0 0 10 15 146 0

Total 162 30 10 166 105 311 68 0 11 57 136 503 3

Militant Activities

May witnessed increase in militant activities. As compared to April, there has been more

than 33pc increase in violent militant activities while more than 60pc increase in number of

deaths. In 75 militant activities across the country, 174 people were killed including 29 SFPs, 10

PGRs, 30 militants and 105 civilians while 116 others got injured including 59 SFPs, eight militants

and 57 civilians. Two suspected militants were arrested during these militant activities while three

people were kidnapped by the militants. As compared to previous month, there has been more

than 33pc increase in militant activities across the country, more than 60pc increase in number of

deaths and more than 16pc increase in number of injuries. This increase in number of militant

attacks has been witnessed across the country except FATA though this increase in Balochistan is

much higher than other regions. In Balochistan, there has been almost 62pc increase in number

militant attacks, almost 32pc increase in number of deaths and more than 37pc increase in

number of injuries. FATA witnessed 21pc reduction in number of attacks, KP 22pc increase while

Sindh witnessed 50pc increase in militant attacks. Detailed break up of militant activities across

geographical regions is given in Table-3, type of attacks in Table-4, geographical impact of militant

activities in Figure-2 and impact with reference to attack type is given in Figure-3.

Although IED remained the favorite weapon of militants but sudden rise (with intensity) of

militants’ physical assault is quite alarming. Operationally, physical assault is considered to be

most risky type of attack but increase in this type of attacks could either present motivation of the

militants (which is mostly ideologically driven) or it could be due to poor law & order situation

that help militants to roam freely. Another notable development is increase in number of targeted

killings across the country particularly in Balochistan and Sindh (Karachi).

Highest number of militant activities was reported from Balochistan where militants have

tried to pit ethnic communities against each other while incidents of sectarian violence also



continued unabated. Highest number of deaths resulting from militant activities was reported

from Sindh where some footprints of Islamic State (IS) have increasingly emerged and militants

targeted Ismaili community.

Latest increase in militant activities seems to be internally as well as externally driven.

Internally, signs of IS gaining ground in the country are visible posing serious challenge for the

security forces in days to come. Attached to this development is the level of radicalization in the

society particularly in the educated and well-off families, which is an issue of serious nature with

its nightmarish consequences. Externally, fingers are increasingly being pointed towards India and

its intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) for fomenting trouble in Pakistan

including Balochistan, FATA and Karachi. The accusations came from Pakistan’s top political and

military leadership and somehow “acknowledged” by the Indian Defence Minister when he said

that India will fight terrorism through terrorism. Pakistan also alleged India for carrying out anti-

Pakistan activities with the view to sabotage Pakistan-China Economic Corridor (PCEC).

Figure 2: Geographical distribution of MAs & their impact (May 2015)

Table 3: Province wise detail of Militant Activities (May 2015)


Arst Kdnp SFP PGR M C Tot SFP PGR M C Total

Balochistan 34 2 0 1 41 44 18 0 0 33 51 2 3

FATA 15 9 8 19 6 42 28 0 8 7 43 0 0

KPK 18 13 2 2 8 25 11 0 0 7 18 0 0

Sindh 8 5 0 8 50 63 2 0 0 10 4 0 0

Total 75 29 10 30 105 174 59 0 8 57 116 2 3



Figure 3: Type of Attacks– Impact (May 2015)

Table 4: Nature/ Type of Militant Attacks (May 2015)

Type Nos Killed Injured


GrA 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 0

IED 28 5 8 1 12 26 42 0 0 16 58 0 0

K 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

KK 1 0 0 0 22 22 0 0 0 1 1 0 0

MA 18 18 0 28 51 97 16 0 8 19 35 2 0

RA 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SA 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 4 0 0

TK 21 6 2 0 19 27 1 0 0 13 14 0 0

Total 75 29 10 30 105 174 59 0 8 57 116 2 3

Security Forces Actions

In May, some reduction in security forces actions and resultant deaths was observed when

compared to previous month. In 87 security forces actions, 136 suspects were killed (along with

one security forces personnel) while 12 people were injured including nine SFPs and three

militants. 501 suspects were arrested by security forces in intelligence based operations across

the country. Detailed break up of security forces actions is given in Table-5. Highest number of

security forces actions was reported from Balochistan where security forces are opting for strong-

armed tactics to address insurgency, sectarian violence and other forms of militancy. After

showing intensity in their operation in Khyber Agency, there has been some respite during May as

only one aerial strike was observed in the month. Comparative reduction of aerial strikes in



Khyber Agency suggests that the agency has been cleared and the forces are trying to consolidate

their positions. On the other hand, forces intensified their actions in North Waziristan under

Operation Zarb-e-Azb and aerial strikes were observed in Shawal valley where some local as well

as foreign nationals were killed. Moreover, US drone strikes were also observed in the Shawal

valley.

Table 5: Province-wise breakup of security forces actions (May 2015)


Arst SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

Balochistan 39 1 0 18 0 19 5 0 3 0 8 200

FATA 8 0 0 95 0 95 0 0 0 0 0 4

ICT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8

KPK 17 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 127

Punjab 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16

Sindh 16 0 0 21 0 21 3 0 0 0 3 146

Total 87 1 0 136 0 137 9 0 3 0 12 501

Significant development of the Month

India Accused of supporting militancy in Pakistan

In the recent past, top military and government officials in Pakistan have pointed fingers

towards Indian intelligence agency RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) for its alleged involvement

in fomenting trouble in the country through sponsoring and financing militants. Security and

intelligence agencies claimed to have identified footprints of RAW’s involvement in creating

unrest in the country particularly in Balochistan, FATA and Karachi. Defence Minister Khawja Asif

went to an extent to state that RAW was backing a political party to achieve its objectives in

Pakistan. Defence Minister claimed of having irrefutable evidence of such Indian involvement in

Pakistan.

In an unprecedented development, the statement issued after Corps Commanders

Conference in GHQ squarely blamed Indian intelligence agencies for supporting anti-state

elements in Pakistan. Since Pakistan-India dialogue process is suspended for quite some time,

both sides are trading accusations through media. Since it is now an open secret of Indian

involvement in dismemberment of Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh in 1971, Pakistan has

worst apprehensions that India is working on similar strategy in Balochistan.



Foreign Secretary and Foreign Office spokesman categorically mentioned that Indian

intelligence agency was behind many militant activities across the country. Foreign Secretary has

said that Pakistan had taken up with India this issue several times in the past during diplomatic

engagements. Sindh CM Qaim Ali Shah has claimed that intelligence agencies have irrefutable

evidence of such involvement of Indian intelligence agency in creating unrest in Karachi. PM

Nawaz Sharif also hinted at such involvement of foreign forces when he said that some internal

and external forces are hell bent to derail China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

The statement of Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar that India will use terrorism to

counter terrorism from other countries has confirmed not only Pakistan’s assertions of RAW’s

involvement in anti-Pakistan activities but also thinking pattern of Indian government. In the

meanwhile, China has also reportedly conveyed to Pakistan about RAW’s efforts for sabotaging

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Indian nervousness on development of Gwadar as deep sea

port and providing access to China is now an open secret as India perceives this against her

economic and strategic interests in the region. Moreover, some other regional countries are also

viewing skeptically the development of Gwadar. Increase in militant activities in Balochistan in

recent past has clearly pointed that hostile forces have become quite active in creating serious

doubts about security situation in the country particularly Balochistan region to block speedy

movement of China and Pakistan on development of required infrastructure. At the time when

region is increasingly slipping into the fold of IS and other transnational militant groups, such

policies of state actors and states could be highly counter-productive not only for Pakistan but

also for entire region.

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations & Signing of ISI-NDS MoU

Prime Minister accompanied by Chief of Army Staff and ISI Chief paid an official visit to

Afghanistan where he held talks with top Afghan political and military leadership. While

addressing a press conference in Kabul along with President Ashraf Ghani, PM Sharif strongly

condemned the surge in attacks by the Afghan Taliban under their spring offensive, which he

termed as acts of terrorism. He said, “All sanctuaries, when found, will be eliminated by direct

action, and will be monitored by the existing mechanism” adding “Any effort by any militant or

group to destabilise Afghanistan will be dealt with severely and such elements will be outlawed

and hunted down”. He further said, “In case of terrorist activity, both Pakistan and Afghanistan

retain the right of counter actions in conjunction...We agreed that peace and stability in the



region will remain elusive until the menace of terrorism afflicting the region is comprehensively

addressed". He said, “We stand in strong solidarity with Afghanistan. I assure you that the

enemies of Afghanistan cannot be friends of Pakistan...We both recognise that an enduring peace

in Afghanistan will be a distant dream without an inclusive intra-Afghan reconciliation”. Nawaz

also reaffirmed Pakistan's full support for an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led peace and

reconciliation process and assured President Ashraf Ghani of making all possible efforts in this

regard. Separately, Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif said that the territories of Pakistan

and Afghanistan will be not be used against each other. The COAS also extended full support for

Afghan led peace efforts and added that Pak-Afghan relations will strictly adhere to a policy of

non-interference.

In the recent past, a major shift in Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan has been

witnessed. This is the first time that Pakistan has openly offered support to Afghan leadership in

fight against Taliban and criticized Afghan Taliban’s spring offensive amidst peace talks. This is an

extension of the policy that Pakistan is following nationally. The announcement from Pakistani

leadership that militants will be targeted in its area again suggest that Pakistan does not want to

make any distinction between good or bad Taliban and will continue to hunt down militants in the

buffer zone of Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Although Afghan issue can only be resolved through

negotiations as it cannot be resolved through military means yet such stance of Pakistan, with

reciprocity from Afghan side, is not only meant to send a strong signal to Afghan Taliban but also

help improve bilateral relations between the two countries, which is pivotal for Pakistan’s own

offensive against home-based militants in tribal belt where military operations are in full swing.

In a watershed development following the visit of PM Nawaz Sharif and Army Chief to

Afghanistan, Pakistan premier intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has signed a

Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS)

to share intelligence and conduct coordinated operation against militants. According to the

agreement, both spy agencies will identify common enemies and carry out joint operations on

either side of the border. Media reports suggested that ISI, as per agreement, will also train and

equip the NDS. In addition, both institutions will investigate accused individuals behind any terror

incident within their respective countries.

The agreement between the two intelligence agencies has not been received well in

Afghanistan. Several Afghan MPs opposed the MoU during a session of the Wolesi Jirga (lower



house of parliament), saying it will provide no benefits to Afghanistan. As the criticism mounted,

the NDS rejected reports that its operatives would be trained and equipped by Pakistan. NDS

spokesman Haseeb Sediqi told a news conference that reports regarding the deployment of

Afghan security personnel to Pakistan for training based on the new MoU were “false”.

Regardless of nitty-gritty of the agreement, warming up of relations between the two

countries especially at the military/ intelligence levels is a good omen and could allow both the

countries to fight militancy more effectively, however, achieving this objective would require lot

of efforts on both sides and both the countries will have to prove that they buried the unpleasant

past, adopted in true letter and spirit the policy of non-interference in each other’s internal

affairs, and would remain committed to moving forward on this thorny path. It is yet to be seen

whether warmth in relationship between two countries and their security forces is really a

beginning of an end and does not prove to be end of a beginning under criticism in Afghanistan. It

is yet to be seen how President Ashraf Ghani sails through internal criticism.

Investigation into Safoora Incident – Some Harsh Realities

Karachi Police made a big stride forward and arrested four militants who, according to

police, confessed their involvement in Safoora carnage killing 45 people belonging to Shia Ismaili

community. The arrested militants included Tahir Hussain Minhas alias Sain alias Nazir alias Zahid

alias Naveed alias Khalil alias Shaukat alias Mota, Saad Aziz alias Tin Tin alias John, Hafiz Nasir alias

Yasir and Mohammad Azhar Ishrat alias Majid. An antiterrorism court remanded the four Safoora

Goth attack suspects in police custody in nine cases pertaining to an encounter, illicit weapons

and explosive material till June 5. The arrested militants confessed their involvement in various

militant activities including Safoora incident, target killing of T2F director Sabeen Mehmud (on

whose killings fingers were pointed at the intelligence agencies), failed attempt on the life of

Brigadier Basit of Rangers, bomb attack on a naval officer, killing of Bohri community persons,

murder of around 10 police officers, failed attempt of killing American academic Dr Debra Lobo,

grenade attack on schools, two bank robberies and throwing of pamphlets. Arrested militants

seem to be influenced by the Islamic State (IS). Later, police also arrested brother of Tahir

identified as Khalid Minhas from Jamshoro (Sindh).

Given the state of cleavages between various school of thoughts (sects), growing influence

of IS should ring the alarm bell in the country. Notwithstanding the success of Karachi police, the



revelation that arrested militants who were involved in Safoora incidents were educated (ranging

from matriculate to holding university degrees including that of prestigious institutions like

Institute of Business Administration -IBA) and belonged to well-off families has raised serious

concern about state of radicalization in Pakistan. Against the conventional wisdom and perception

that only economically deprived and uneducated people indulge in militancy, such revelations

should be cause of serious worry for the political as well as military authorities who are hell bent

to eradicate the scourge of militancy through hard measures like military operations, military

courts for speedy trial, arrests and encounters, etc. PICSS in its various periodicals including

Annual Security Assessment Report-2014 has already questioned the efficacy of those measures

adopted after Peshawar School Attacks in the form of National Action Plan (NAP). As it was

assessed that measures adopted under NAP would improve overall security situation in the

country (which is visible from substantial reduction in average militant activities) but would not be

sufficient to completely eradicate militancy. PICSS had proposed developing a counter-narrative

to fight this ideological battle with militants, which is still relevant and seems to be the only

workable solution. With the growing threat of IS in the region and its known profile of sectarian

nature, the need for such narrative is crucial for bridging the existing gap among various school of

thoughts/ sects in the country.

Mastung Massacres: A New Dimension to the Balochistan Quagmire

On 29 May 2015, Balochistan witnessed yet another tragic incident in form of Mastung

massacre. As per details, at least 19 passengers were killed (later the figure went up to 22 with

three injured succumbing to injuries) when a group of armed men forced passengers off Quetta-

Karachi passenger bus near Mastung (Balochistan) and kidnapped 30 of them out of which 19

were killed. Provincial Home Minister Sarfraz Bugti said all the victims were ethnically Pashtun and

were travelling from Pishin to Karachi. According to a senior official of the Balochistan Home

Department, armed men had intercepted two passenger in Gidrang near Kadocha, Mastung – just

45 kilometres outside the provincial capital. The official said five passengers were freed. The

Balochistan home minister had previously accused the Indian intelligence agency, Research and

Analysis Wing (RAW), for being behind the attack. Later, United Baloch Army (UBA), an insurgent

Baloch group claimed responsibility of the attack. A UBA spokesperson, Mureed Baloch told

newsmen on phone that the incident “is revenge for killing of militants in Mastung and Kalat areas

by security forces”.



Previously, settlers or members of Shia community had been targeted in Balochistan and it

is for the first time that people belonging to ethnic Pasthun (Pashto) population have been

targeted. As per the 2008 Pakistan Statistical Yearbook, Pashtun population forms 25 percent of

the total in the province while Balochi speaking are 40 percent of the province’s inhabitants and

20 percent speak Brahui (the Brahui population is also considered to be Balochi in origin).

Apparently, the perpetrators of the Mastung massacre have made an attempt to pitting Balochis

and Pashtuns communities against each other, which further complicates the already fragile

security situation in the province. Previously, there was no such rift between the two major ethnic

communities though political differences were sometimes noticed.

At the moment, neither political leadership of the country nor military establishment have

a viable and workable solution of the Balochistan crisis. While political leadership of the country

has managed to clear their doubts regarding routes of Pakistan-China Economic Corridor during

an All Parties Conference called by the government/ PM, security situation is getting increasingly

complex with every passing day and issues like Mastung killings create further doubts about

possibility of implementation of the project on ground. Pakistan has already flagged India behind

anti-Pakistan activities to destabilize Pakistan while China has also reportedly conveyed concern of

Indian intelligence agency RAW efforts for sabotaging PCEC project. Irrespective of the

involvement of the hostile agencies in anti-Pakistan activities, the fact remains that a situation

exists in the province as well as across the country that provide an opportunity to external forces

to exploit.

PM and Army Chief’s Visit to ISI Headquarters

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Army Chief General Raheel Sharif visited ISI headquarters

where they were briefed on internal and external security of the country and ongoing counter-

terrorism operations by Director General ISI Lt Gen Rizwan Akhtar. Reportedly, the ongoing

successful Intelligence Based Operations (IBOs), the number of terrorist attempts averted recently

as well as terrorists networks busted across the country came under discussion during the

meeting. During the visit, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif expressed serious concern over recent

statements made by the Indian political leadership, and said that all possible measures will be

taken to counter "anti-Pakistan" acts. Earlier, Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, in a

shocking statement, asserted that terrorists have to be neutralized only through terrorists. PM

Nawaz said that terrorism and extremism are the biggest challenges to a secure and prosperous



Pakistan. He showed his concern over actions of foreign intelligence agencies in destabilizing the

country. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, Interior Minister Chaudhry

Nisar Ali Khan, Adviser to PM on National Security and Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz and Special

Assistant to PM on Foreign Affairs Tariq Fatemi accompanied PM.

The visit to ISI headquarters of the prime minister and army chief has added significance in

the wake of Pakistan’s allegations of Indian involvement in anti-Pakistan activities and

“confirmation” of Indian defence minister that terrorism will be fought through terrorism. Since

Adviser to PM on National Security and Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz and Special Assistant to PM on

Foreign Affairs Tariq Fatemi also accompanied PM, there is possibility that top military and

political leadership of the country might have devised a plan to take up the issue of Indian

involvement at international forums. Notwithstanding purported statement of Indian defence

minister, it is yet to be seen what specific evidence government had about Indian involvement in

terrorist activities in the country.



Security Situation in Baluchistan

After seeing a continuous reduction in militant activities in Balochistan during past few

months, a trend of increase in violence has been observed in May. During the month, 34 militant

activities were recorded in which 44 people were killed while 51 others were injured. Last month

poor laborers (settler) were killed in Turbat area of Kech district while this time passengers

belonging to ethnic Pasthun community faced the brunt of militants in Mastung district. Detailed

break up of district wise violence in the province is given in Table-6, monthly Comparison of

militant activities in Figure-4 and type of attacks in Table-7. Figure-4 clearly shows an upward

trend in violence in Balochistan. If accusations of external involvement in unrest in Balochistan are

correct, security situation in the province is likely to deteriorate in days to come as province

already presents fault lines on ethnic and sectarian grounds in addition to serious governance and

law & order situation, which could be exploited to further complicate existing fragile security

situation. Increase in incident of targeted killing during the month (particularly against Shia Hazara

community) clearly point to this phenomena.

Table 6: District wise detail of militant activities in Baluchistan (May 2015)

District Nos Killed Injured


Barkhan 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0

Dera Bugti 7 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 2 2 0 0

Gwadar 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Jhalmagsi 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kech 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 0

Kohlu 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lasbella 1 0 0 0 3 3 5 0 0 12 17 0 0

Loralai 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 3 2 0

Mastung 1 0 0 0 22 22 0 0 0 1 1 0 0

Nasirabad 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0

Nushki 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 4 0 0

Panjgur 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Qallat 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Qila Abdullah 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

Quetta 10 1 0 0 10 11 3 0 0 14 17 0 0

Sibi 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0

Sohbatpur 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zhob 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 34 2 0 1 41 44 18 0 0 33 51 2 3



Figure 4: Month Wise Comparison of Militant Activities in Baluchistan

Table 7: Type of Militant Attacks in Baluchistan (May 2015)



GrA 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 0

IED 16 0 0 1 8 9 15 0 0 16 31 0 0

K 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

KK 1 0 0 0 22 22 0 0 0 1 1 0 0

MA 3 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 3 6 2 0

RA 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TK 9 1 0 0 11 12 0 0 0 9 9 0 0

Total 34 2 0 1 41 44 18 0 0 33 51 2 3

Security Situation in FATA

With intensity in security forces actions first in operation Khyber-II in Khyber Agency

followed by airstrikes in Dattakhel and Shawal valley of North Waziristan, militants have not been

able, so far, to show much of the coordinated resistance but they remained successful in attacking

security forces across the tribal region including some cross-border attacks on northern part of

the tribal belt. As compared to previous month, there has been reduction in militant attacks in

May but the rate of injuries went slightly up while the rate of casualties has almost doubled. In 16

militant activities during the month, 46 people were killed including 13 SFPs, eight PGRs, 19

militants and six civilians while 45 others injured including 30 SFPs, eight militants and seven

civilians. Self-explanatory monthly comparison of militant activities is given in Figure-5, detailed

agency wise break up of militant activities in Table-8 and break up of type of attacks is given in

Table-9.



As reflected in Table-8, five militant activities were reported from Bajour agency

suggesting that militants have spread across all the regions of the tribal belt following strong

armed tactics by the security forces. Out of 16 militant activities, half were IED based attacks that

caused 15 deaths (including five SFPs) and 22 injuries (all SFPs). On other hand, there were six

physical assaults by the militants which caused more deaths but the death rate of militants in

these attacks was higher than those who were targeted. This also suggests that security forces are

quite vigilant to thwart any attack by the militants. With an ongoing offensive of security forces in

Shawal valley, spaces for militants are likely to be further squeezed in tribal belt.

Figure 5: Month-wise comparison of MAs in FATA

Table 8: Agency wise break up of Militant Activities – FATA (May 2015)

Agency Nos Killed Injured

Kdnp SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

Bajur 5 1 8 0 1 10 5 0 0 0 5 0 Khyber 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kurram 1 0 0 2 2 4 2 0 0 7 9 0 Muhmand 1 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 11 0 North Waziristan 5 8 0 12 0 20 7 0 0 0 7 0 Orakzai 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 South Waziristan 2 4 0 5 0 9 5 0 8 0 13 0

Total 16 13 8 19 6 46 30 0 8 7 45 0

Table 9: Type of Militant Attacks in FATA (May 2015)



IED 8 5 8 0 2 15 22 0 0 0 22 0

MA 6 8 0 19 2 29 8 0 8 7 23 0

RA 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

TK 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 16 13 8 19 6 46 30 0 8 7 45 0



Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtoonkha (KP)

In May, slight increase in militant activities has been observed as compared to previous

month while number of deaths has also gone up. But the security situation was quite satisfactory

when analyzed while keeping in mind the local government elections in the province. Such

elections as well as elections campaigns have always remained prime target of militants to wreak

havoc but no such notable incident was observed in run up to elections and even on the day of

elections on 30 May.

In 17 militant activities during the month, 21 people were killed including nine SFPs, two

PGRs, two militants and eight civilians while 16 others were injured including nine SFPs and seven

civilians. Self-explanatory monthly comparison of militant activities in KP is given in Figure-6,

militancy affected districts in Table-10 and type of Attacks in Table-11. The province witnessed

only one IED blast while seven incidents of target killing and five incidents of militants’ physical

assault were reported. Some militant activities in south-western part of the province suggest that

militants in FATA are also trying spread into adjoining settled area of KP. The most worrying part

of the militant activities is the issue of targeted killing which are continuing for the quite some

time.

Table 10: District wise spread of Militant Attacks in KP (May 2015)



Bannu 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 4 0

Charsadda 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 4 0

DI Khan 1 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0

Hangu 3 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 0

Mardan 2 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 0

Peshawar 4 2 0 0 2 4 1 0 0 2 3 0

Tank 2 4 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 1 1 0

Swat 3 1 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 17 9 2 2 8 21 9 0 0 7 16 0



Figure 6: Monthly Comparison of Militant Activities in KP

Table 11: Type of Militant Attacks in KP (May 2015)

Type Nos Killed Injured Kdnp

SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

IED 4 0 0 0 2 2 5 0 0 0 5 0

MA 5 6 0 1 4 11 3 0 0 1 4 0

RA 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 4 0

TK 7 3 2 0 2 7 1 0 0 2 3 0

Total 17 9 2 2 8 21 9 0 0 7 16 0

Security Situation in Sindh

Although overall security situation in the Sindh (Karachi) continues to improve due to

ongoing operation by Police/ Rangers yet retuning of the city to normalcy might take some time.

This time militants have managed to target Shia Ismaili community in a high profile attack in

Safoora chok killing 45 people. The incident, having many dimensions, has once again exposed the

cracks that exist in the society and security challenges that Pakistan’s financial capital is facing.

Detail of incident and various dimensions of the attack have already been covered under the

section “Significant Development of the Month”. In addition to Safoora incident, militants have

managed to successfully execute their plan of targeted killing in the city killing two senior police

officers including an SSP. Such incidents clearly point to militants undiminishing capabilities and

intent. Monthly comparison of militant activities in Sindh is given in Figure-7, affected districts in

Table-14 and type of attacks in Table-15.



Figure 7: Month-wise comparison of MAs in Sindh

Table 12: District-Wise Breakup of MAs in Sindh (May 2015)



Karachi 8 5 0 8 50 63 2 0 0 2 4 0

Total 8 5 0 8 50 63 2 0 0 2 4 0

Table 13: Types of MAs in Sindh (May 2015)



MA 4 3 0 8 45 56 2 0 0 0 2 0

TK 4 2 0 0 5 7 0 0 0 2 2 0

Total 8 5 0 8 50 63 2 0 0 2 4 0

Security situation in AJ&K, GB, ICT, and Punjab

Security situation in AJ&K, Islamabad Capital Territory, and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) remained

stable while situation in Punjab has also witnessed positive change except an incident of targeted

killing in which a member of Punjab Assembly Rana Shamshad was killed along with his son and a

party worker in Kamoki area of Gujranwala. TTP claimed responsibility of the attack but the

claimed could not be confirmed from independent sources.

Key Points:

May witnessed increase in overall violence across the country while this increase in

overall violence is clearly attributable to militant activities as security forces actions

have gone down as compared to previous month.



Increase in militant activities was observed in almost all regions including

Balochistan, KP and Sindh.

Safoora incident in Karachi has rung the alarm bells with signs of IS coming into

play. The involvement of educated and well-off youth in the incident has also put

forward some harsh questions regarding radicalization of society, which needs to

be addressed at top priority.

With incident of killing of Pasthun passengers in Mastung, a new dimension to

Balochistan issue has been added wherein effort has been made to pit two major

ethnic communities against each other (Baloch versus Pashtuns).

An increase in incidents of targeted killing has been observed almost across the

country.

Fingers are being pointed towards India for its involvement in anti-Pakistan

activities in the country. The statement of Indian Defence Minister “confirms” such

Indian involvement. Pakistan believes that such involvement of Indian intelligence

agency is aimed at sabotaging Pakistan-China Economic Corridor.

Pakistan-Afghanistan bilateral political and security relations are improving and a

watershed development took place in the form of MoU between ISI and NDS for

intelligence sharing. Given the reaction of Afghan lawmakers, it is yet to be seen

how President Ashraf Ghani treads on improving bilateral relations between the

two countries.

Conclusion

After seeing a constant reduction, the month has witnessed increase in militant activities.

The militants have not only targeted Shia Ismaili community in the form of Safoora incident in

Karachi but also made an effort to pit ethnic communities in Balochistan while kidnapping and

killing Pashtun passengers in Mastung. Safoora incident in Karachi has demonstrated growing

influence of Islamic State in the region in addition to demonstrating how educated and well-off

youth are being attracted to violence in the country.

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