Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

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Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout Allison Cowan Business Development Associate

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Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout. Allison Cowan Business Development Associate. Welcome!. Allison Cowan Business Development Associate. linkedin.com/in/allisoncowan. Allie_STR. 71%. of U.S. rooms participate with STR. STR provides monthly, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Page 1: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Hotel Industry OverviewORLA Convention:

Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Allison CowanBusiness Development Associate

Page 2: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Welcome!

Allison CowanBusiness Development Associate

linkedin.com/in/allisoncowan Allie_STR

Page 3: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

71%of U.S. rooms participate with STR

Page 4: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

STR provides monthly, weekly and daily reports to more than

worldwide hotels, which represent

rooms.

47,000

6.1 million

Page 5: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Raw Data Collected:Total Rooms Available (Supply)

Total Rooms Sold (Demand)

Total Room Revenue (Revenue)

KPIs(Key Performance Indicators)Occ(Occupancy)

ADR(Average Daily Rate)

RevPAR(Revenue per Available Room)

What We Do

Page 6: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Presentation is available for download.

To view this presentation, go to the “Data” drop-down menu on www.HotelNewsNow.com and click “Data Presentations”.

Page 7: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

AgendaOctober 14, 2013

• Total U.S. Overview

• State of Oregon

• Deeper Dive Into Oregon

• Pipeline

• Future Performance

• Q&A

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Total U.S. Review

Page 9: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Demand Growth Back to Normal. RevPAR Driven by ADR.

% Change

Supply* 1.8 bn 0.7% Demand* 1.1 bn 2.4%Occupancy 62.0% 1.7% ADR* $109 4.0% RevPAR* $68 5.8% Room Revenue* $121 bn 6.6%

Total U.S. – Key Performance Indicators12 MMA through August 2013* All Time High

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July 2013: Highest Monthly Room Revenue

EVER($12.2 Billion)

Page 11: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013-8

-4

0

4

8 Supply Demand

.7%

Favorable Supply / Demand Fundamentals for 2013

-7.1%

-0.9%

- 4.7%

Total U.S. – Supply & Demand % Change12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013

7.7%

2.3%

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199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 20112012-10

-5

0

5

Demand ADR

7.7%

2.3%

ADR Growth Stalls. Smooth Sailing From Here?

-4.5%

7.5%6.8%

-8.9%

4.0%

Total U.S. – ADR & Demand % Change12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013

Page 13: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 201120122013-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-16.8%

-2.6%

-10.1%

9% 8.6%

Total U.S. – RevPAR % Change12 MMA January 1990 – August 2013

65 Months 36 Mo.112 Months

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Inflation Adjusted ADRs Still Not Reached – Yet

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F

2014F

Nominal ADR2000 / 2008 Grown by CPI

2000 ADR Grown By CPI

Total U.S. – ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2014F2000 – 2012 CPI from bls.gov, 2013– 2014 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators

$85

$101

$104

$85

$107 $116

$107

$1192008 ADR Grown By CPI

$111

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State of Oregon

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High Growth, Surpassing Peak

Neighboring States: %Change & Actual OCCYTD August 2013

Idaho

Montana

Wyoming

Nevada

Oregon

Washington

California

3.1%

-0.5

-1.8%

3.1%

4.6%

2.7%

2.7%72.3%

62.3%

61.5%

58.8%

63.5%

66.9%

63.4%

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California At Least $20 Higher Than Neighbors

Neighboring States: %Change & Actual ADRYTD August 2013

Idaho

Montana

Wyoming

Nevada

Oregon

Washington

California

3.9%

3.6%

3.3%

1.9%

4.8%

4.9%

5.7%

$87.04

$93.18

$104.99

$96.88

$99.08

$109.66

$130.67

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Oregon Close To Double Digit RevPAR Growth

Neighboring States: %Change & Actual RevPARYTD August 2013

Idaho

Montana

Wyoming

Nevada

Oregon

Washington

California

7.1%

3.2%

1.4%

5%

9.6%

7.6%

8.6%$94.42

$73.35

$62.79

$61.54

$61.78

$57.27

$54.26

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Deeper Dive Into Oregon

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Portland Market

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Portland Market

Hotels 263Rooms 25,924Sample 89%

Supply 6.3m 0.0%Demand 4.5m* 3.9%Occupancy 72% 4.0%ADR $107* 6.7%RevPAR $77* 11.0%Room Revenue $482m* 10.9%

Portland Mkt: Key Performance IndicatorsAugust YTD 2013*All time high

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Supply Not An Issue, Strong Demand Growth Continues

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

6.4

-2.3

4.0

-4.4

6.3

-9.8

9.2

3.6 %

Supply % Change Demand % Change

Portland Mkt: Room Supply & Demand %Change12MMA 2001 to August 2013

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Year After Year of (almost) Continuous Growth

OCC % Change ADR % Change RevPAR % Change

6.9

-1.9

4.9 5.2 4.5

9.9

4.4 5.6

10.3

4.0

6.7

11.0

2010201120122013

Portland Mkt: ADR, OCC & RevPAR %ChangeAugust YTD 2010– 2013

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Weekday= Sunday-Thursday

Weekend= Friday & Saturday

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Weekday OCC: Chart Topping Rooms Sold

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec40

50

60

70

80

52.7

83%

2007 2010 2011 20122013

Portland Mkt: Actual Weekday OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13

Page 26: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Weekday ADR: Highest August Rate On Record

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec80

90

100

110

120

$96.07

$116.65

2007 2010 2011 20122013

+$15.80

Portland Mkt: Actual Weekday ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13

+$6.87

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Weekend OCC: August Selling 9 Out Of 10 Rooms

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec40

50

60

70

80

90

100

52.8

93.6%

2007 2010 2011 20122013

Portland Mkt: Actual Weekend OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13

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Weekend ADR: Strong Rate Growth

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec75

85

95

105

115

$87.29

$117.44 2007 2010 20112012 2013

Portland Mkt: Actual Weekend ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13

+$18.88

+$6.81

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Portland Submarkets

Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West:Hotels: 35 Rooms: 2,975

Lake Oswego/ I-5 South:Hotels: 47 Rooms: 3,718

Portland Airport/ Vancouver:Hotels: 84 Rooms: 8,315

Portland Downtown:Hotels: 50 Rooms: 7,499

Portland I-84/ I-205 East:Hotels: 47 Rooms: 3,417

Portland Submarkets: August YTD 2013

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Downtown & Beaverton With Strong Performance

Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West

Lake Oswego/ I-5

Portland Airport/ Vancouver

Portland Downtown

Portland I-84/ I-205

10.1

6.4

5.7

7.3

3.7

1.8

5.7

3.9

3.6

5.3

OCC % Chg ADR % Chg

Portland Submarkets: OCC & ADR %ChangeYTD August 2013

62%$75

80%$145

70%$88

68%$96

78%$101

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9%+ RevPAR Growth Across the Board

Beaverton/Sunset Hwy West

Lake Oswego/ I-5

Portland Airport/ Vancouver

Portland Downtown

Portland I-84/ I-205

12.2

12.5

9.8

11.2

9.2

Portland Sub-Markets – RevPAR % ChangeYTD Ending August 2013

$45.94

$113.68

$61.06

$64.56

$77.54

Page 32: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Oregon Area Market

Page 33: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Oregon Area Market

Hotels 652Rooms 38,973Sample 55%

Supply 9.4m* 0.4%Demand 5.5m* 5.7%Occupancy 57.9% 5.3%ADR $92* 3.1%RevPAR $53* 8.5%Room Revenue $503m* 9.0%

OR Area Mkt: Key Performance IndicatorsAugust YTD 2013*All time high

Page 34: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Strong KPI= Favorable Supply/Demand

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -10.0

-4.0

2.0

8.0

2.4

-0.7

2.2 -0.8

-7.1

5.3

0.5

4.5

Supply % Change Demand % Change

Oregon Area Mkt: Room Supply & Demand %Change12MMA 2001 to August 2013

Page 35: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Positive OCC/ADR Mix Across The Board

OCC % Change ADR % Change RevPAR % Change

3.0

0.8

3.8

1.0 1.1

2.2

0.2

2.9 3.1

5.3

3.1

8.5

2010201120122013

Oregon Area Mkt: ADR, OCC & RevPAR &ChangeAugust YTD 2010– 2013

Page 36: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Weekday= Sunday-Thursday

Weekend= Friday & Saturday

Page 37: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Weekday OCC: Still Playing Catch Up From 2007

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec30

40

50

60

70

80

72.2% 2007201020112012

Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekday OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13

Page 38: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Weekday ADR: Breaking Records

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec60

70

80

90

100

110

$ 75.84

$ 102.28

2007 2010 2011 20122013

Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekday ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13

$9.82

$9.33

Page 39: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Weekend OCC: Finally Surpassing Peak

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec30

40

50

60

70

80

90 86.9%

2007 2010 2011 20122013

Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekend OCC by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13

Page 40: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Weekend ADR: Breaking Records…Again

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec60

70

80

90

100

110

120

$77.24

$ 112.33

2007 2010 20112012 2013

Oregon Area Mkt: Actual Weekend ADR by Month2007 & Jan 10’- Aug’13

$9.94

$8.64

Page 41: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Bend/Redmond: Hotels: 60 Rooms: 3,983

Oregon West Area:Hotels: 280 Rooms: 16,462

Eugene MSA:Hotels: 71 Rooms: 4,711

Medford/ Grants Pass:Hotels: 89 Rooms: 5,137

Oregon East Area:Hotels: 152 Rooms: 8,680

Oregon Area Submarkets

Oregon Area Submarkets: August YTD 2013

Page 42: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

3 of 5 Submarkets Surpassing Peak

Oregon East Area

Eugene MSA, OR

Oregon West Area

Medford/Grants Pass

Bend/ Redmond

1.6

1.1

2.8

4.1

7.7

6.4

6.3

2.8

6.8

10.3

OCC % Chg ADR % Chg

Oregon Area Submarkets: OCC & ADR %ChangeYTD Ending August 2013

63%

$104

61%

$81

57%

$98

63%

$87

53%$83

Page 43: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Strong RevPAR Growth Across the Board

Oregon Area Sub-Markets – RevPAR % ChangeYTD Ending August 2013

Oregon East Area

Eugene MSA, OR

Oregon West Area

Medford/Grants Pass

Bend/ Redmond

8.1

7.5

5.7

11.2

18.8$66

$49

$56

$55

$44

Page 44: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

PipelineIn Construction: Ground has been broken

Final Planning: Construction will begin within 12 months

Planning: Construction will begin within 13-24 months

Pre-Planning: Construction will begin in more than 24 months

Page 45: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Total U.S. – Rooms in Active Pipeline%Change From Last Year

Phase August 2013 August 2012 Difference % Change

In Construction 78,739 66,071 12,668 19.2%

Final Planning 124,591 106,281 18,310 17.2%

Planning 126,337 132,259 -5,922 -4.5%

Active Pipeline 329,667 304,611 25,056 8.2%

Rooms in the Active Pipeline Accelerating

Page 46: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments

Luxury Upper Upscale

Upscale Upper Midscale

Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

4,690.07,633.0

29,480.0

21,644.0

3,311.01,091.0

10,890.0

Total U.S. – Rooms Under Construction‘000s Rooms, by Scale, August 2013

Page 47: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Portland Market Pipeline Snapshot

Page 48: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Oregon Area Market Pipeline Snapshot

Page 49: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Forecasts

Page 50: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Total U.S. Forecasts (%Change vs. Prior Year)2013 - 2014

2013Forecast

2014Forecast

Supply 0.8% 1.1%

Demand 2.2% 2.4%

Occupancy 1.4% 1.3%

ADR 4.2% 4.6%

RevPAR 5.7% 6.0%

Total U.S.: ADR to Drive RevPAR for the Next 2 Years

Page 51: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Portland Market-STRA Custom Forecast

2013Forecast

2014Forecast

%Chg. %Chg.

Occupancy 70% 4.1 70% 0.5%

ADR $107 7.0% $114 6.8%

RevPAR $75 11.4% $80 7.3%

Page 52: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Oregon Area Market-STRA Custom Forecast

2013Forecast

2014Forecast

%Chg. %Chg.

Occupancy 56% 5.2% 57% 0.5%

ADR $91 3.0% $94 3.3%

RevPAR $50 8.4% $53 5.5%

Page 53: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout
Page 54: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

5 Things to Know

1. Total U.S.- Positive Demand, Rate Driven Recovery

2. Oregon- Strong Performance Across the Board

3. Portland- Setting KPI Highs

4. Oregon Area- Demand Recovering, Rate Driven

Recovery

5. Outlook- Steady As She Goes

Page 55: Hotel Industry Overview ORLA Convention: Oregon Lodging Industry Trends Breakout

Allison [email protected]

615-824-8664 x3420