Hot products seminar presentation adrian beck
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Transcript of Hot products seminar presentation adrian beck
Understanding and Identifying Hot Products: The Top 50
Background, Plans and VisionAdrian Beck, University of Leicester
Defining Hot Products
Defining Shrinkage Malicious and Non-malicious Known and Unknown Parameters of Loss Prevention Function
Understanding Shrinkage
intended sales income that was not and cannot be realised
Defining Hot Products
Measuring Shrinkage Total value? Percentage of retail turnover? Margin?
Why Margin Matters
Factors Low Margin Item
High Margin Item
Selling Price €10 €10
Number of Items Sold 100 100
Unit Cost €9 €1
Total Sales €1,000 €1,000
Shrinkage Rate (Units Lost)
10 10
Value of Shrinkage (at Cost)
€90 €10
Profit After Costs and Shrinkage
€10 €890
Percentage Profit 1% 89%
The ‘Hot’ Concept
Risk is not evenly distributed.
Crime hot spots
3% of locations in some cities account for 50% of recorded
crime
Products
Places
People
Processes People
Places
Products Processes
Value of Understanding the ‘Hot’ Concept
Avoids spreading valuable resources too
thinly
Focus on the vital few amongst the trivial
many
Rapid impact
Greatest return
Possible diffusion of benefits
Hot Products Example
Understanding Hot Products: The Rise of the Acronym
CRAVED AT CUT PRICES SERV
CRAVED
Concealable – easy to hide Removable – easy to get out of store Available – on open display Valuable – easy to sell on Enjoyable – high demand and reputation Disposable – good market for them
AT CUT PRICES
Affordable – easily purchased with cash Transportable – easy to move around Concealable – easy to hide Untraceable – few auditable markings Tradeable – easily exchanged for cash or other
commodities Profitable – have value Reputable – good brand placement Imperishable – long lasting Consumable – need to be replaced regularly Evaluable – quality can be verified Shiftable – regular market for items
Ability to Affect
Factors High Medium LowAffordable
Transportable
Concealable
Untraceable
Tradeable
Profitable
Reputable
Imperishable
Consumable
Evaluable
Shiftable
CRAVED AT CUT PRICES
Influencing Offender Decision Making
Increasing Risk What are the chances of being caught?
Reducing Reward What are the benefits?
Increase Consequences What will happen to me if I am caught?
Understanding the Dominance of the Malicious Agenda
Dominance of Security as Loss Prevention
Lack of Engagement with Known Losses Prioritisation by Technology Providers Planned Shrinkage Lack of Data
SERV – Non-malicious Shrinkage Sensitive to time – time limited Expectations of consumers – any
damage unacceptable Reprocessing – opportunity for error Vulnerability of packaging – likely to
generate damage
Hot Products Lists
Hugely Difficult Variance in Recording Variance in Categorisation Variance in Detail Variance in Definition Dominance of Lowest Common
Denominator
Methodology
Request to ECR Members for Information Limited Response – not willingness but ability Top 50 Items Across Agreed Categories
Food Beer, Wines and Spirits Health and Beauty
Limited to 3 UK Retailers: Supermarkets Combined 40.7% of Total Turnover Sales of €109.9 billion
Methodology
Normalisation of Categories Indexing of Data to Enable Parity in
Ranking Variance from Company Category Average Percentage of Sum Total of Combined
Variance: Risk Value All Data For 12 months – Previous Year Only Unknown Data Total of €72 million of losses – only top 50
items per retailer
Hot Product Categories
FoodBeers, Wines & SpiritsHealth & Beauty
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
53%
33%
13%
Categories
Ris
k S
co
re
Food Categories
Fresh Meat
Meat Counter
Milk
Strawberries
Vegetables
Peppers
Leeks
Cheese
Fish
Potatoes
Eggs
Bananas
Bread
Drinks
Sandwiches
Other Berries
Fruit Other
Berries Other
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
33.8
16.3
5.1
5.1
5.1
4.9
3.7
3.1
2.9
2.6
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.1
1.1
0.5
6.2
3.2
Risk Score
Ca
teg
ory
Food: Fresh Meat
Beef
Chicken
Lamb
Pork
Bacon
Turkey
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
46.2
25.4
12.8
9.5
3.6
2.6
Risk Score
Ca
teg
ory
BWS: Category Type
Branded Own0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
97
3
Type of Category
Ris
k R
an
kin
g
BWS: Hot Categories
Spirit
Beer
Wine
Sparkling
Liqueur
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00
49.86
25.10
14.45
8.71
1.87
Risk Ranking
Ca
teg
ory
BWS: Top 10 Brands
Jack Daniels
Smirnoff Red Label Vodka
Stella Artois
Moet et Chandon
Famous Grouse Whisky
Bacardi
Courvoisier VS Cognac
Carling Lager
Bells Whiskey
Wine
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00
11.27
9.54
7.26
5.19
5.05
4.15
4.08
3.87
3.11
14.87
Risk Ranking
Pro
du
cts
BWS: Specific Brands All
Smirnoff Red Label Vodka 1l
Jack Daniels 70cl
Jack Daniels 1l
Bells Whiskey 1l
Moët et Chandon Brut Impérial NV 75cl
Courvoisier VS Cognac 1l
Bacardi Superior Rum 1l
Carling Lager 15x440
Stella Artois 18x284
Carling Lager 24x440
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
7.4
6.7
4.6
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.2
1.9
Risk Rating
Sp
ecifi
c B
ran
d
BWS: Specific Spirit Brands
Smirnoff Red Label Vodka 1l
Jack Daniels 70cl
Jack Daniels 1l
Bells Whiskey 1l
Courvoisier VS Cognac 1l
Bacardi Superior Rum 1l
The Famous Grouse Scotch Whisky 1l
Martell VS Cognac 70cl
Smirnoff Red Label Vodka 70cl
High Commissioner Whisky 70cl
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
14.8
13.5
9.2
6.2
5.4
5.0
3.9
3.5
3.5
2.9
Risk Rating
Sp
irit
Ca
teg
ory
BWS: Specific Beer Brands
Carling Lager 15x440
Stella Artois 18x284
Carling Lager 24x440
Fosters Lager 15x440
Stella Artois 20x440
Budweiser 20x330
Carlsberg 24x440
Carlsberg Lager 15x440
Fosters Lager 24x440
Own Brand Lager 12x440
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
9.6
8.8
7.4
6.9
5.8
5.5
4.1
3.6
3.3
3.3
Risk Rating
Be
er
Ca
teg
ory
BWS: Specific Wine Brands
Ogio Pinot Grigio 70cl
Villa de Moreschi Pinot Grigio 75cl
Oceans Edge Sauvignon Blanc 70cl
McGuigan Estate Shiraz 75cl
Via Vecc Pi Grigio 70cl
Blossom Hill White Zinfandel 70cl
Lindemans Sydney Cove Red 70cl
Lindemans Sydney Cove Chardonnay 70cl
Dion Pinot Grigio 70cl
McGuigan Estate Chardonnay 75cl
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
7.7
5.3
5.3
5.3
4.8
4.8
4.3
4.3
4.3
3.8
Risk Rating
Win
e C
ate
go
ry
BWS: Manufacturers
Diageo
Brown Forman
InBev
LVMH
The Edrington Group
Coors
Bacardi
Fortune Brands
Own Brand
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
15.7
12.6
9.7
6.6
5.0
4.3
4.1
4.1
3.7
Risk Rating
Ma
nu
factu
rers
Health & Beauty: Top 10 Type
Health GroomingPain Relief Baby CosmeticOral Health Beauty Perfume0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
30
22
12 11
97
5 5
Type
Ris
k R
ati
ng
CreamsShampoo
BladesSprays
RemediesSun
creamTesters
Toothpaste
BrushesMascaras
Baby FoodWipes
Nappies
Health & Beauty: Top 10 Brand
Fusio
n
Nurof
en
Max
Fac
tor M
asca
ra
SMA B
aby Fo
odLy
nx
Oral B
Arman
i
Mac
h 3
Dulco
lax
Cow &
Gat
e Bab
y Fo
od0
2
4
6
8
10
12 11
9
5 4 4 4 4 43 3
Brand
Ris
k R
ati
ng
Health and Beauty: Specific Brands
Gillette Fusion Power 8 Pack
Gillette Fusion Blades Manual 8 Pack
Dulcolax x40
Max Factor False Lash Effect Mascara Black
Lynx Bodyspray Africa 150ml
Anadin Extra x16
Gillette Fusion Power 4 Pack
Gillette Mach 3 Blades 8 Pack
Nurofen Express Liquid Capsules x16
Rimmel Volume Flash Mascara
0 1 2 3 4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Risk Rating
Sp
ecifi
c B
ran
d
Health & Beauty: Top 10 Manufacturer
P&G
Reckit
t Ben
ckise
r
Glaxo
Smith
Kline
Pfize
r
Unileve
r
Boehr
inge
r Ing
elhe
im
Max
Fac
tor
Arman
i
Nutric
ia Ltd
Max
imus
cle0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00 24
12
7 6 65 5 4 3 3
Manufacturer
Ris
k R
ati
ng
Health & Beauty: By Category
Fusion
Lynx
Mach
3Su
re
Quattr
o Ti
tani
um B
lade
s0
1020304050
50
20 1810
2
Grooming
Brand
Ris
k R
ati
ng
Dulco
lax
Cyclo
ne
Optre
x
Zovira
x
Durex
Zanta
c
Niqui
tine
Adios
Clear
blue
Seno
kot
0
2
4
6
8
10
12 1110
77 6 6 6
5 5 5
Health
Brand
Ris
k R
ati
ng
Health & Beauty: By Category
Nurofen Anadin Panadol0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
78
17
5
Pain Relief
Brand
Ris
k R
ati
ng
SMA B
aby
Food
Cow &
Gat
e Bab
y Fo
od
Own Bra
nd B
aby
Wip
es
John
sons
Wip
es
Pam
pers
Huggi
es N
appi
es
Own Bra
nd N
appi
es0
10
20
30
40
40
28
10 95 4 4
Baby
Brand
Ris
k R
ati
ng
Health & Beauty: By Category
Max Factor Mascara
Rimmel Mascara Loreal Mascara0
10
20
30
40
50
60 53
32
16
Cosmetic
Brand
Ris
k R
ati
ng
Oral B Colgate Toothpaste
Blanx Toothpaste
Pulsar 35 Toothbrush
0
10
20
30
40
50
6058
29
6 6
Oral Health
Brand
Ris
k R
ati
ng
Health & Beauty: By Category
Armani Boss In Motion Jean Paul Gautiere0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Perfume
Brand
Ris
k R
ati
ng
Olay Bio-Oil Sally Hansen
Simple Kind
Pantene NFM Skin
Essence
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Beauty
Brand
Ris
k R
ati
ng
Conclusions
Note of Caution Difficulty of standardising and normalising
data More clarity required on categorisation
Need for a broader range of companies
Watch out for Smirnoff vodka drinking beef eaters who like shaving and have a
headache!