Hot HouseGlobal Climate Change and the Human Condition

Robert G. Strom, Professor EmeritusDepartment of Planetary Sciences and Lunar and Planetary Laboratory

University of Arizona

Introduction

The Science Consensusand

American Attitudes on Global Warming

Reliability of Global Warming Parameters

• Global warming• Rise in greenhouse gases• Cause of global warming• Long term consequences

of global warming• Solution to the problem• Prospects of

implementing a solution

• Firmly Established (100%)• Firmly Established (100%)• Firmly Established (>95%)• Many known, but other

consequences probable• Well understood• Extremely uncertain

Some Science Organizations that Support the Findings on Global Warming and its Human Cause

• U.S. National Academy of Sciences

• American Geophysical Union

• American Meteorology Society

• American Association for the Advancement of Science

• British Royal Society

• At least 27 other international scientific societies

Figure: Courtesy of IPCC

IPCC Main Conclusions

• Global warming is “unequivocal”.

• Human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are the primary cause of global warming.

Key Scientific Findings• Global Warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.• Climate changes are underway and are projected to grow.• Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are

expected to increase.• Climate change will stress water resources in some places.• Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.• Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm

surge.• Risks to human health will increase.• Climate change will interact with many social and environmental

stresses.• Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and

ecosystems.• Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made

TODAY.

Main Statements of World Science Community to G8 Nations (2008)

• A concrete timetable and coordinated plan to build a substantial number of carbon capture and storage demonstration plants.

• Better preparedness for problems climate change may cause, including assessments of the vulnerability of developing countries.

• A faster transition to a low-carbon economy, boosted by the promotion of greener lifestyles.

• Heavy investment in carbon-removing technology and ways to "leapfrog" from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy sources.

• Governments to support research on greenhouse gas reduction and climate change impact.

American Attitudes on Global Warming

Pew Research Center (July 2006) and ABC News (March 2006) Polls

• 70% believe there is “solid evidence of global warming” but only 41% believe it is caused by human activities. (Pew Research Center)

• 64% perceive “a lot of disagreement among scientists” on global warming. (ABC)

• Only 33% think scientists agree that global warming has begun. (ABC)

Americans are much less concerned about global warming than others…

• How “personally concerned” are you about global warming? (Pew Research Center)

• Those who said “a great deal”…• Japan ----- 66%• Spain ----- 51%• France --- 46%• China ---- 20%• U.S.A. --- 19%

Latest Pew Research Poll (2009)• Only 32% of the public agree that

humans and other living things have evolved over time through evolution by natural selection, compared to 87% of scientists who believe so.

• Just 36% of the public agree that Earth is growing warmer because of human activity, compared to 84% of scientists.

The Denial Syndrome• The Denial Syndrome is when people or

organizations refuse to accept a principle that has been proven by overwhelming evidence.

• Sometimes this is due to self-interest, ignorance, or political and religious beliefs.

• In other cases they apparently do not want to face reality, possibly because of irrational fear.

The Denial Syndrome Used on Some Well Understood Subjects

• Global Warming• Ozone Depletion• Apollo Moon Landings• Plate Tectonics• Evolution• Spherical Earth• Copernican Theory (Earth orbits Sun, etc.)• The Holocaust• The Adverse Effects of Smoking

In the U.S., the Denial Syndrome, disinformation, and Science

Illiteracy are Leading to a Disregard of the Dangers of Global

Warming and the Urgency of Mitigating the Problem.