Hoskins, Brian J

From: Sent: To: Cc: Subject:

Davies Trevor P

Liss Peter Prof RE: CRU Scien

Dear Br ian,

Thank you f o r t h i s endorsement, and f o r t h e adv ice on Mike K e l l y - l e t ' s hope he can do i t .

Best Wishes

Trevor

Hoskins, B r i an

Sub jec t : RE: CRU Science Assessment Panel (SAP) Members

Dear Trevor& Mar t i n I t h i n k t h i s i s an e x c e l l e n t l i s t and support a l l t h e people on i t and t h e arguments g iven . I would go f o r Mike K e l l y i n t h e f i r s t p lace f o r t h e ' u n s p e c i f i c wisdom'. Best wishes B r i a n

To: Davies Trevor P ro f Cc: Hoskins, B r i an I; Sub jec t : Re: CRU Scien

Dear Trevor, Th i s seems t o me (as a non-expert i n t h e re l evan t f i e l d s ) a s t r o n g l i s t

- - bu t o f course you w i l l be cons t ra ined by a v a i l a b i l i t y and t h e need t o ensure an app rop r i a te range o f expe r t i se .

O f those on t h e l i s t , I suppose F r i end and K e l l y a re t h e two who cou ld o f f e r no more . .

t han ' unspec i f i c wisdom' - - bu t t h e r e i s perhaps > case f o r one such person. I ' m sure B r i an w i l l have views - - and I ' m copying t h i s message a l s o t o But l e t me j u s t add my admi ra t ion f o r t h e way you a r e hand l i ng t h i s exercise.

Best wishes M a r t i n

--On 27 February 2010 12:56 +0000 "Davies Trevor P ro f (ENV)" <x.x.xxxxxx@xxx.xx.xx> wrote:

> Dear Mar t in , > > Ron and we s e t t l e d on a l i s t o f 13 poss ib l e candidates f o r SAP

1

> membership. The t a r g e t w i l l be -6 b u t we w i l l need t o have a l a r g e r > c h o i c e t o account f o r n o n - a v a i l a b i l i t y . > > Our l i s t i s :

ed by t h e p h e r i c s c i e n t i s t (ETH ,Zu r i ch ) - FRS, h i g h atmosphere phys ics , s o l a r

> v a r i a b l i t v . ~-~ -, > (Reading) - a l r e a d y approved. n c l i m a t e > (Southampton) - a l r e a d y approv , l a k e sediments, > p o l l e n (UCL) - a l r e a d y approve , a p p l i e d maths > > FRS, ocean geochemisty (Cambridge) > i c s (Cambridge) M i c h a e l K e l l y FRS, > (Cambridge) P r o f Dav id Hand FBA, s t a t i s t i c s > P r e s i d e n t o f t h e Roya l S t a t i s t i c a l S o c i e t y > c y c l i n g , e s p e c i a l l y v e g e t a t i o n (Ed inburgh) > t r e e - r i n g s , D i r e c t o r o f Tree R i n g Labora to r > L i s a ~ r a u m l i c h , t r e e - r i n g s , ~ i r e c t o r schoo l - o f Nat Resources, U n i v > A r i zona > > > We see

> > We t h i n k i t i m p o r t a n t t o have t r e e - r i n g e x p e r t i s e , s i n c e t h e r e a r e > some d e t a i l e d t e c h n i c a l i s s u e s t o examine. The t r e e r i n g community i s > s m a l l and most have c o l l a b o r a t e d w i t h CRU. and Grauml ich have > n o t . They a r e n o t Members o f NAS, b u t t h e y h l y respec ted . > > i s s i m i l a r l y h i g h l y respected, a l t h o u g h n o t an FRS. He > be a b l e t o make s e n s i b l e i n p u t i n t o t h e t r e e - r i n g assessment. > > w i l l be ' i n f o r m e d ' about t r e e - r i n > a i l e d t e c h n i c a l knowledge. > > C r e s > a and

r -I+ > e i t y > > Out o f t h e s e 13, we would hope t o g e t 6 w i t h a s u i t a b l e range o f > e x p e r t i s e s , and a range o f ' a t t i t u d e s ' towards r e c e n t > warming/greenhouse gases - f r o m t h o s e who a l r e a d y y see i t as a > problem, b u t w i t h o u t b e i n g r i g h t i n t h e m i d d l e o f t h e c l i m a t e s c i e n c e > community, t o t hose wh ich w i l l come t o i t w i t h a q u e s t i o n i n g o b j e c t i v i t y . > v~.L4'4 BpC 34;+ > We e f u l i f you (and B r i a n ) would scan t h i s l i s t , and l e t > us you f e e l i t i s a s u i t a b l e l i s t t o wh ich t o s t a r t > i s s u i n g i n v i t a t i o n s . > > Bes t Wishes

> P ro fesso r T revo r Dav ies > P ro V i ce -Chance l l o r Research, E n t e r p r i s e & Engagement U n i v e r s i t y o f > East A n g l i a Norwich, UK >

> IMPORTANT NOTICE - This emai l i s in tended f o r t h e named r e c i p i e n t only . > I t may conta in p r i v i l e g e d and c o n f i d e n t i a l informat ion. I f you a r e > not t h e intended r e c i p i e n t , n o t i f y t h e sender immediately and des t roy > t h i s emai l . You must not copy, d i s t r i b u t e o r t a k e a c t i o n i n r e l i a n c e upon i t . > Whilst a l l e f f o r t s a r e made t o safeguard emails , t h e Univers i ty of > East Anglia cannot guaran tee t h a t a t tachments a r e v i r u s - f r e e o r > compatible w i t h your systems and does not accept l i a b i l i t y i n r e spec t > of v i r u s e s o r computer problems exper ienced. > >

> IMPORTANT NOTICE - T h i s e m a i l i s i n t e n d e d f o r t h e named r e c i p i e n t o n l y . > It may c o n t a i n p r i v i l e g e d and c o n f i d e n t i a l i n f o r m a t i o n . I f you a r e > n o t t h e i n t e n d e d r e c i p i e n t , n o t i f y t h e sender immed ia te l y and d e s t r o y > t h i s e m a i l . You must n o t copy, d i s t r i b u t e o r t a k e a c t i o n i n r e l i a n c e upon i t . > W h i l s t a l l e f f o r t s a r e made t o sa feguard emai ls , t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f > East A n g l i a cannot gua ran tee t h a t a t tachments a r e v i r u s - f r e e o r > compa t ib le w i t h y o u r systems and does n o t accept l i a b i l i t y i n r e s p e c t > o f v i r u s e s o r computer problems exper ienced. > >

Hoskins, Brian J

From: on behalf of Brian Hoskins Sent:

I

To: Subject: Attachments:

Hoskins, Brian J [Fwd: CRU Science Assessment Panel] SAP3.doc; SAPdraft-invitation.doc

-------- Original Message -------- Subject:CRU Science Assessment Panel

Date:Thu 4 Mar 2010 14:22:37 From:

To: CC:

Dear Martin and Brian,

Ron and we have identified the following to approach initially:

Michael Kelly Herbert Huppert Kerry Emanuel Huw Davies David Hand Lisa Graumlich.

Ron suggested that they should first be "warmed upt1 by telephone. He will approach Michael Kelly and Herbert Huppert. We wondered if Brian wou to give Huw Davies a ring. And if Martin would be prepared to approach asking him to contact Kerry Emanuel and Lisa Graumlich.

If you agree I will ask John Beddington to contact David Hand, since 1) he knows him, 2) he was keen on his membership.

I attach a draft letter which Ron will send to these people as the formal invitation. You may find it helpful background as you talk to the invitees and I also attach a list of CRU publications which we anticipate asking the P mbers to assess.

Contact details are:

I am sorry to ask you to undertake yet another chore on our behalf, but we feel that some scene-setting by the two of you would much improve our chances of getting the right people to do this job quickly.

Best Wishes

Trevor

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Professor Trevor Davies

Pro Vice-chancellor Research, Enterprise & Engagement University of East Anglia Norwich, UK

IMPORTANT NOTICE - This email is intended for the named recipient only. It may contain privileged and confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. You must not copy, distribute or take action in reliance upon it. Whilst all efforts are made to safeguard emails, the University of East Anglia cannot guarantee that attachments are virus-free or compatible with your systems and does not accept liability in respect of viruses or computer problems experienced.

Hoskins. Brian J

From: Sent: To : Cc: Subject:

Hoskins. Brian J

Dear T revo r I am n o t aware o f a l l t h e papers t h a t cou ld be i n c l u d e d i n t h e l i s t , b u t I do t h i n k t h a t t hese papers do cover t h e i s s u e s o f major concern. Best wishes B r i a n

Sent: 12 March 2010 To: Davies T revo r P r o f (ENV) Cc: Hoskins, B r i a n 3 ; S u b j e c t : Re: CRU ~ c i e n m

Dear Trevor, It seems t o me t h a t t h e scope o f t h e p a n e l ' s work i s a m a t t e r p r i m a r i l y

f o r Ron, b u t i f B r i a n i s a l s o happy w i t h t h i s cho ice o f papers (as you know, I have no r e l e v a n t e x p e r t i s e m y s e l f ! ) I see no prob lem w i t h say ing t h a t t h e l i s t was drawn up i n c o n s u l t a t i o n .

b e s t wishes M a r t i n

07 +0000 "Davies T revo r P r o f (ENV)" w r o t e :

> Dear M a r t i n and Br ian , > > The UEA Press O f f i c e adv i ses us t h a t t h e Panel and UEA w i l l come under > enormous p ressu re f o r d e t a i l s o f t h e p u b l i c a t i o n s t o be assessed when we > announce t h e membership o f t h e Pane l (p robab ly Thursday). I n i t i a l l y we > d i d n o t w ish t o do t h i s b u t we have now been persuaded t h i s i s p r o b a b l y a > good i d e a and i t may, indeed, d e f l e c t o t h e r d i s r u p t i v e e f f o r t s by some i n > t h e media/b logosphere. Ron i s comfo r tab le w i t h t h i s , b u t i s keen t h a t we > can say t h a t i t was c o n s t r u c t e d i n c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h t h e Roya l S o c i e t y . > > I d i d send you t h i s l i s t e a r l i e r , which I a t t a c h a g a i n he re . They > rep resen t t h e co re body o f CRU work around which most o f t h e a s s e r t i o n s > have been f l y i n g . They a r e a l s o t h e p u b l i c a t i o n s wh ich f e a t u r e d h e a v i l y > i n o u r submission t o t h e P a r l i a m e n t a r y I n q u i r y , and i n o u r answers t o t h e > M u i r R u s s e l l Review's q u e s t i o n s . > > > I would be v e r y g r a t e f u l if you would be prepared t o a l l o w us t o use a > fo rm o f words a l o n g t h e l i n e s : " t h e p u b l i c a t i o n s were chosen i n > c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h The Roya l S o c i e t y " . > > Best Wishes > > > Trevor >

> P r o f e s s o r T revo r Davies > P r o V i ce -Chance l l o r Research, E n t e r p r i s e & Engagement > U n i v e r s i t y o f East A n g l i a > Norwich, UK > > IMPORTANT NOTICE - T h i s e m a i l i s i n t e n d e d f o r t h e named r e c i p i e n t o n l y . > I t may c o n t a i n p r i v i l e g e d and c o n f i d e n t i a l i n f o r m a t i o n . I f you a r e n o t > t h e i n t e n d e d r e c i p i e n t , n o t i f y t h e sender immed ia te l y and d e s t r o y t h i s > e m a i l . You must n o t copy, d i s t r i b u t e o r t a k e a c t i o n i n r e l i a n c e upon i t . > W h i l s t a l l e f f o r t s a r e made t o sa feguard emai ls , t h e U n i v e r s i t y of East > A n g l i a cannot guarantee t h a t a t tachments a r e v i r u s - f r e e o r compa t ib le > w i t h y o u r systems and does n o t accept l i a b i l i t y i n r e s p e c t o f v i r u s e s o r > computer problems exper ienced. > >

Hoskins, Brian J

From: Sent:

Tom Sheldon [

To : ~om'sheldon Cc: All at SMC Subject: Oxburgh report - in confidence Attachments: Report of the Science Assessment Panel.pdf; University response to Oxburgh report.doc;

EDWARD ACTON STATEIVIENT.docx

Importance: High

Dear all

Please find attached the Oxburgh report and statements from the UEA and Edward Acton, all embargoed until 11:OO today, Wed 14 April. Please keep these documents private until that time; they are not for general distribution.

Your comments on the findings are very welcome; please get them to me as soon as you can, as the press will be reporting on this right away.

Best wishes Tom

Tom Sheldon Science Media Centre

2 1 Albemarle Street, London W1S 4BS

Hoskins, Brian J

From: Sent: To: Subject:

Fiona Fox 14 A ~ r i l 2 0 ~osk ins, Brian J RE: SMC Roundup VERSION 2: Oxburgh report - immediate release

Hi Brian -well he specifically mentioned a leaflet published in 1999 by WMO which used a graph without any of the caveats that sed. But to be fair he also cited NGOs and the media as being amongst those who take CRU's work and struggle to include the caveats ... he was specifically asked if governments have mis-used it and he ducked the question

Cheers Fiona

Fiona Fox

Director Science Media Centre

Registered Charity No 227938

Sent: 14 April 2010 1 3 : m To: Fiona Fox Subject: RE: SMC Roundup VERSIOIV 2: Oxburgh report - immediate release

Fiona

Many thanks.

I n the bullet: There are lots of uncertainties in this area of science and CRU should be commended for highlighting these at every turn - but not everyone who has used thier work has highlighted the range of uncertainty and that is unfortunate - the blame for mis-representation of CRU's work is spread very widely

did he elaborate on the last phrase?

Brian

From: Fiona FOX-

--

Subject: FW: SMC Roundup VERSION 2: Oxburgh report - immediate release

For your interest. If any of you need the full report let me know

Cheers Fiona

Comments I picked up that from Lord Oxburgh and David Hand may be of interest at the press conference (pleas don't quote these -they are just my recollection of some of the key points having chaired the conference)

- This was 'non-trivial' i f we had found CRU guilty as charged the scientists would have probably never worked again

- Our job was not t o judge their conclusions - in fact the climate change aspect was incidental to us - i t was t o look at the scientific integrity o f these scientists

- We did not find them guilty as charged -we found no evidence of impropriety whatsoever- we were absolutely satisfied that they were doing their job well..indeed I would say that they cared not about the outcome of their work but about the quality of their work

- There are lots of uncertainties in this area of science and CRU should be commended for highlighting these at every turn - but not everyone who has used thier work has highlighted the range of uncertainty and that is unfortunate - the blame for mis-representation of CRU's work is spread very widely

- This kind of data is extraordinarily messy(by i t s nature!)UEA are to be commended for the emphasis on the caveats.

- Yes they could have used other statistical approaches and maybe they should have done but there is no evidence that their conclusions would have been any different

- The elephant in the room is that the question o f which data you use and which data you don't use is always complex

- Lovely conclusion by Lord Oxburgh calling on the media to look at their role in all this and to try to represent the 'contingent' nature of science

Cheers Fiona

Subject: SMC Roundup VERSION 2: Oxburgh report - immediate release

Science Media Centre Round-up FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Wednesdav 14 April 2010

Expert reaction to the Oxburgh report on UEA Climatic Research

Dr Myles Allen, Head o f the Climate Dynamics Group at the University o f Oxford, said:

"It comes as no surprise that the panel found no evidence of a conspiracy - anyone familiar with the way science works would know it would be quite impossible for a group o f scientists to maintain a conspiracy for 20 minutes, never mind 20 years.

"While we'd all agree that it is a good idea to document and archive computer code as thoroughly as possible, people should appreciate that science generally progresses by taking different approaches t o problems, and either confirming or refuting published results, not by "auditing" old calculations. There is a danger, i f climate science starts t o be treated as a bookkeeping exercise, that this would actually impede progress in understanding how the real Earth system works,"

Prof Sir Brian Hoskins, Director o f the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, said:

"i welcome this thorough and fair review. The picture painted by it of a dedicated smail group trying to do the best science and with no hidden agenda to their work is consistent with my knowledge o f the people involved at CRU and o f their research. The review should help shape aspects of the continuing progress of climate science, in particular the need to make use of the latest statistical techniques."

Lord Martin Rees, President of the Royal Society, said:

"We should all be grateful to Lord Oxburgh and his expert colleagues for a thorough report offering an authoritative assessment of the CRU's research and making clear recommendations. Climate science currently attracts enormous public interest. It is therefore crucial that research sustains the highest standards of rigour and openness."

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science, said:

"These are very important findings that should be conveyed around the world. The Panel has conducted a rigorous investigation and found no evidence to support the allegations made by some climate change 'sceptics' that the research carried out by the Climatic Research Unit is fraudulent. In short, the emails that were posted on the internet in November do not represent the 'smoking gun' that was claimed by so-called sceptics.

"The Panel has carried out a thorough investigation of the evidence, and anybody who simply rejects these findings will show that they are motivated by prejudice and ideology rather than by scepticism and a desire to uncover the truth. I think those so-called sceptics and commentators in the media who have attempted t o undermine the credibility of climate change science on the basis o f the hacked emails now need to apologise for misleading the public about their significance."

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And here are the journalists who we had in the Centre this morning!

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Hoskins. Brian J

From: Sent:

OXBURGH, Lord 14 A ~ r i l 201 0 15: 1

To : ~osk ins , Brian J Subject: RE: review Attachments: review

Thanks, Brian - I don't have the IPCC stuff to hand but as a good example, take the WMO brochure 'WMO statement on the status of the Global Climate in 1999' - the cover has a temperature scale between present and 1000AD. Three curves shown - one attributed to Jones, one to Briffa and one to Mann - no error bands in the illustration and a rather cursory reference in the text inside! We all understood how and why this happened, it's just not fair to blame this on CRU!

Best, Ron

Hoskins. Brian J

From: Sent: To: Dr ~ i s a Graumlich; Hand, David J; Prof Herbert HuDDert; Prof Huw Davies; Prof Kerry

Cc: Su biect:

. . . ichael Kelly (VCO); Liss Peter Prof (ENV); Davies Trevor Prof (ENV)

ientific Assessment Panel ReD0I-t ~tt ichments: Report of the Science Assessment Panel.doc;'~indin~s-~ann-lnquiry.pdf; University

response to Oxburgh report.doc

Dear All, As most of you are probably aware our report was published yesterday. A press conference was held at the

Science Media Centre in London yesterday morning. To my surprise, in spite of the fact that we are in the middle of general election and a party manifesto was being launched yesterday, the occasion was very well attended with standing room only for the late comers. In view of the importance of statistics in the whole process and our comments I invited David Hand to join me. The occasion seemed to go reasonably well and David was able to give the jounalists a three minute course in elementary statistics that they seemed to enjoy. The questions were not hostile but one question that came up and recurred in other interviews during the day was whether we had taken enough time to do a proper job. My reply was that the University had asked us to report as soon as possible and that with everyone working hard and our remit limited to the honesty of the research, we did have enough time for a very experienced group to be quite clear and unanimous about the outcome.

I did a number of other interviews during the day and I have not looked at today's press coverage but my guess is that with other competing claims a good news story - which ours essentially is -will not retain press interest for long. My early impression is that our report contained just enough comfort to the more reasonable sceptics for them to accept that we had had made a fair and critical evaluation of the Unit's work. I have already had one piece of US sceptic feedback to that effect - 'judicious and balanced'. But it is early days. During the day I did three TV interviews and around seven radio pieces.

The University had prepared a response to our report that was published along with it and the last third of the conference was used by UEA to present their response and answer questions. I think that that went pretty well too.

There are three enclosures with this message. The first is the final report which except for minor editing is the version we agreed before we left Norwich. The second is the University response. The third, for general interest, is the outcome of a university inquiry into the work of Professor Mann.

I know that the University is grateful to you all and will be writing to you personally to thank you for your work but may I offer my personal thanks for agreeing to participate so readily, rearranging your diaries to accommodate the tight timetable and then for working hard in such a collegial and collaborative way to arrive at a clear result.

Thanks and kind regards, Ron

.. . , , , . . . . . . . . . . .

IJK Parliarr-ent Disclaimer: ' i 1 - i ~ f-138: is con:;dcntl& ;o :I-c ir.:endcd recipient. if yc;ci rece:ved it cri.oc-, plc~ass no;:fy (tie s c i i d ~ r 21-d dc1c.r~ 11 rrcr?i .jcllr systen;. Any ~l!;auttior~sed us?, dlsclos~rrc., or cc:Jying is :lot ncrnittcd. 'Tl>:s c-i:iail has been ciieckari for viruses, but no !t.Dllity is accepted fa.- any damage causcd by any virus !i.ar-sr?:i!tcd by i i f s e - m ~ i i