Horizon Scanning in HSE: health and safety in the changing ... · in the changing workplace ......

www.hsl.gov.ukAn Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

www.hsl.gov.ukAn Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Horizon Scanning in HSE: health and safety in the changing workplace

Peter Ellwood, Health and Safety Laboratory

IRSST 22 May 2008

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Agenda• Introduction to HSE/HSL

• Horizon scanning and futures

• HSE’s Horizon Scanning System

• Current Issues

• HSE Scenarios 2017

• HSE Science Planning


What are HSE/HSL?

Central GovernmentHSE

Health and Safety Executive

HSLHealth and Safety

Laboratory


Where are we?


HSL’s Services

• Specialist scientific advice and consultancy

• Incident investigations• Scientific support including

environmental and biomedical analyses, projects, feasibility studies

• Research & development• Technical support to

Standards making• Training• Specialist photography and

technical services


Summary

• HSL offers a wide range of scientific and technical services

• Multidisciplinary approach brings together appropriate skills to meet customer needs

• Committed to providing a quality service for both public and private sector customers


Horizon Scanning‘Horizon scanning is defined as the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.’

Definition of Chief Scientific Adviser’s Committee, September 2004


Changing HSE Priorities• 1974-76Vinyl chloride code ofpracticeLead code of practiceDustAsbestosFire precautionsTanker marker schemeSafeguarding of machineryFlixborough reportMajor hazards branch

• 2003-04Falls from heightWorkplace transportMusculoskeletal disordersWork-related stressAgricultureConstructionHealth servicesSlips and tripsGovernment ‘setting anexample’


Predictions

• “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no use to us.” Memo in Western Union, 1878.

• “The Americans have need of the telephone. We do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, Post Office 1878.


Prediction

• “There is no way anyone would want a computer in their home.” – Ken Olsen, President, Chairman and founder of DEC 1977.


HSE Horizon Scanning System

HSE Staff Internet,journals,press etc

External networks,conferences etc

HSL Horizon Scanning Team

Chief Scientific Adviser's Group

Science Sub-Group

HSE Senior Management Team


HSE Scanning Categories• Social• Technical• Economic• Environmental• Political


Horizon Scanning Current Issues

• Demographics & Ageing• Nanotechnology• Recycling• Human Performance

Enhancement• Hydrogen Economy• Cyber Security• Carbon Dioxide

Sequestration• Pervasive Computing• Obesity

• Genetic Testing• New & Emerging Pests

& Diseases• Biotechnology• Terahertz Technology• Robots and AI• Flexible Working and

Employment Patterns• Keyboards• Complex & Ambiguous

Occupational Health Issues


More Current Issues

• Climate Change• Public Perception of

New Technologies

• Energy – nuclear, renewables, coal, CHP/ microgeneration

• Globalisation• Synthetic Biology

• Methane Gas Hydrates• RFIDs• Sustainability• Rapid Manufacturing• Molecular Manufacturing• Effects of Environmental &

Other Legislation on H&S• Virtual Worlds


Demographics• 1.3 m new jobs by

2014• Blue collar declining,

white collar increasing

• Growth in part-time and flexible working

• More women in work• Older workers• Migration• More SMEs

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Popu

latio

n (0

00s)

2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029

Year

Figure 3: Population by Age Predictions

75+60-7445-5930-4415-290-14


Human Performance Enhancement

• NBIC (Nano, Bio, Info, Cognitive)

• Genomics, stem cells, regenerative technology, life extension

• Drugs, implants, bionics• Therapeutic, augmentative,

designed evolution• Transhumanism• Safety, side effects• Inducement or compulsion?


Pervasive Computing• Embedding or

integrating computers in the everyday environment

• Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)

• Increased exposure• Potential for corruption,

accidental or malicious• Stress, Musculoskeletal

disorders (MSDs) from tracking


Futures Techniques• Horizon Scanning (Environmental Scanning)• Delphi• Trend Analysis• Driver Analysis• Scenarios• Visioning• Roadmaps• Backcasting• Models• Simulation and Gaming


Scenarios• Short stories or scenes – pictures of

what the future might look like.• Internally consistent - based on analysis

of trends and drivers.• Used to test the robustness of policies.


Key Issues from Interviews

• Social- Happiness/well-being; dependency vs self-reliance; social exclusion;- Blurring of work, home/working patterns; changing nature of living unit;- Demographics - ageing workers; gender; migration/ethnicity.

• Technical- Increase in disruptive technologies;- New materials, chemicals – nanotechnology.



• Economic- Hour glass economy; manufacturing - services shift;- decentralisation, SMEs, outsourcing, offshoring;- Effects of H&S on competitiveness;- Role of TUs and employer organisations;- Globalisation – competition and effects on UK; conflict/war on terrorism.

• Environmental- Climate change – effect on legislation and regulation, on energy provision and on working environment.



• Political- Joined up government- Attitudes to risk - Attitudes to privacy- Regulation/deregulation vs enlightened self- interest- Changing nature of democracy


Scenario Planning

Scenario Building20-21 July 2006



Key Issues from InterviewsJune 2006



Ongoing HSE ScanningJanuary 2005 - present

Ongoing HSE ScanningJanuary 2005 - present

Hot topics,Emerging change

Participant ExpertiseJuly 2006



Scenario Drafts:August - November 2006Scenario Drafts:August - November 2006Scenario Drafts:August - November 2006

Confirming scan dataConfirming scan data

Input from Related ScenariosAugust 2006 - present



Participant ExpertiseNovember - December 2006




Scenario Axes

Low High

High

Low

Uncertainty 2

Uncertainty 1


HSE Scenarios for 2017

Decreased UK global competitiveness

Increased UK global competitiveness

Personal responsibility, pro-active adoptionof technology, management of risk

Blame culture, resistance to new technology, rejection of risk


HSE Scenarios for 2017

Decreased UK global competitiveness

Increased UK global competitiveness

Personal responsibility, pro-active adoptionof technology, management of risk

Blame culture, resistance to new technology, rejection of riskTough Choices Boom and Blame

Digital Rose GardenA Virtue of Necessity


Scenario OutputsCommon issues from November 2006 Conference:

• Need for improved education of next generation of stakeholders re: emerging risks, risk management and communication

• What is the future role of regulation ?

• Crossovers - blurring between home/work, health & safety/ environment/social services

• Links to well-being - should not look at health and safety in isolation

• Divides - haves and have nots, skills and not, wills and not


HSE Scenarios & Hot Topics

Tough Choices

A Virtue of Necessity

Boom and Blame

The Digital Rose Garden

*Human Performance Enhancement: use of designer drugs and technological augmentation to enhance human capability and potential.

• Human Performance Enhancement*: used for extreme sports pursuits and as a lifestyle choice.• ‘Green de luxe’: sustainability for design elegance and parsimony of system solutions.• RFIDs: ubiquitous as data sources for the seamless, immersive digital data/media environment which overlays the real world and everyone accesses constantly.

• Human Performance Enhancement: used to cope with demands of two jobs and senior care responsibilities.• ‘Shabby green’: sustainability forced by economic limitations - don’t have much so you don’t use much: reduce, re-use, recycle.• RFIDs: used by those who can afford them for senior telemedicine and home health and environment monitoring.

• Human Performance Enhancement: distributed by organisations as a key competitive edge enhancing productivity.• ‘Success first, sustainability later’: only a wealthy, expanding economy can afford sustainability -- the ‘trickle down’ approach.• RFIDs: implants with the ability to track worker wellness, environment, and productivity, are available.

• Human Performance Enhancement: suggestions that some workers are being compelled to use to boost productivity. • ‘Conserving to cope’: no available capital to invest in green retrofitting or entrepreneurial initiatives.• RFIDs: used increasingly to monitor people and their movements.


HSE Science Planning

• Series of workshops by programme• Cross-cutting workshops• External review workshops


Emerging Themes• To respond effectively to health and safety challenges

arising from changing work patterns, demographic changes and new technologies

• To deliver effective interventions, underpinned by robust and up to date knowledge and evidence

• To ensure policies and regulation are based on sound evidence

• To enable improvements in workplace risk and control through behavioural and cultural changes

• To be an exemplary communicator of risks and solutions

• To deliver improved health and safety through partnerships


Summary• HSE has established a Horizon Scanning

system to identify issues likely to have an impact on the health and safety system

• A range of topics of interest have been identified and scenarios for 2017 prepared

• Contributions and suggestions welcome:

www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/[email protected]


And Finally

• “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr

• “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” – Alan Kay, Apple

Horizon Scanning in HSE: health and safety in the changing ... · in the changing workplace ......

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