Hope for High Tech?Hope for High Tech?Innovation and theInnovation and the

Path to GrowthPath to Growth

Chris HamlinChris HamlinChief Technology OfficerChief Technology Officer

LSI LogicLSI Logic

© LSI Logic 2003

The Current UncertaintyThe Current Uncertainty

Many Sources of VolatilityMany Sources of VolatilityMany Contradictory VoicesMany Contradictory VoicesSemiconductor Down Cycle: Unprecedented Depth Semiconductor Down Cycle: Unprecedented Depth and Durationand DurationMany Disparate Forces are Operating in ConcertMany Disparate Forces are Operating in Concert

MacroeconomicMacroeconomicGeopoliticalGeopoliticalTechnologicalTechnologicalSociologicalSociological

It all needs to be taken into accountIt all needs to be taken into account‘Business as usual’ doesn’t exist‘Business as usual’ doesn’t exist

© LSI Logic 2003

Source: SIA, November 2002

Semiconductor Market CycleSemiconductor Market Cycle

0.1

1

10

100

1000

'59 '61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Growth Rate Current Market

$ Billions (U.S) % Growth

© LSI Logic 2003

The End of HighThe End of High--Tech?Tech?

© LSI Logic 2003

Hope or Despair?Hope or Despair?

Sources of Change and Volatility:Sources of Change and Volatility:Dot Com Bust: Dot Com Bust:

Russian DefaultRussian DefaultLong Term CapitalLong Term Capital

End of PC BoomEnd of PC BoomCustomer DissatisfactionCustomer DissatisfactionCyclical BehaviorCyclical BehaviorRecessionRecessionRise of Chinese High Technology IndustryRise of Chinese High Technology IndustryMoore’s LawMoore’s LawNanotechnologyNanotechnology

Complexity: Opportunity and ChallengeComplexity: Opportunity and Challenge

© LSI Logic 2003

450,000,000,000,000,000 Transistors 450,000,000,000,000,000 Transistors Produced in 2001Produced in 2001

Source: SIA

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Worldwide Production of Transistors on all ICs

2 x 1017

0

1 x 1017

5 x 1017

3 x 1017

4 x 1017

© LSI Logic 2003

How Did We Get Here?How Did We Get Here?

Perfect Storm?Perfect Storm?DotDot--Gone + Recession + Cycle + Defaults + War + Gone + Recession + Cycle + Defaults + War + New Paradigm New Paradigm The Pessimists’ View:The Pessimists’ View:

All the PCs have been sold alreadyAll the PCs have been sold alreadyand if not, they’re commodities without profitand if not, they’re commodities without profit

No one wants cell phones with unworkable gadgetsNo one wants cell phones with unworkable gadgetsThe Internet was a fraud (and the equipment wasn’t The Internet was a fraud (and the equipment wasn’t needed)needed)

© LSI Logic 2003

Chip Price / Performance IndexChip Price / Performance Index

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

01/0

7/20

00

01/2

1/20

00

02/0

4/20

00

02/1

8/20

00

03/0

3/20

0003

/17/

2000

03/3

1/20

00

04/1

4/20

00

04/2

8/20

00

05/1

2/20

00

05/2

6/20

00

06/0

9/20

00

06/2

3/20

0007

/07/

2000

07/2

1/20

00

08/0

4/20

00

08/1

8/20

00

09/0

1/20

00

09/1

5/20

0009

/29/

2000

10/1

3/20

00

10/2

7/20

00

11/1

0/20

00

11/2

4/20

00

12/0

8/20

00

12/2

2/20

0001

/05/

2001

01/1

9/20

01

02/0

2/20

01

02/1

6/20

0103

/02/

2001

03/1

6/20

01

03/3

0/20

0104

/13/

2001

04/2

7/20

01

05/1

1/20

01

05/2

5/20

01

y = y = --0.1936x + 7242.10.1936x + 7242.1

Week EndingWeek EndingSource: VLSI Research

Week CPPIWeek CPPIMoore's LawMoore's LawLinear (Week CPPI)Linear (Week CPPI)

© LSI Logic 2003

Eras of Productivity Improvement Eras of Productivity Improvement

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

TTL

Gate Array

Cell Based ASIC

Cell Based SOC

Platform ASIC

Desig

ner P

rodu

ctivi

ty

© LSI Logic 2003

Worldwide Internet UsersWorldwide Internet Users

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

PC / NC Internet

Mobile Internet

Source: Ericsson

Millions / Subscribers

© LSI Logic 2003

Duality of Globalization's RoleDuality of Globalization's Role

Expansion of MarketsExpansion of MarketsCreation of New MarketsCreation of New MarketsCommodificationCommodificationNarrowing CreativityNarrowing Creativity

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The Role of the PCThe Role of the PC

The PC Plays a Contradictory Role:The PC Plays a Contradictory Role:Economies of Scale…Economies of Scale……with Enforced Conformity…with Enforced ConformityVery Low Costs…Very Low Costs……with Loss of Innovation:…with Loss of Innovation:

ProcessorsProcessorsO/SO/SStorageStorageMemoryMemory

But Great Advances in ManufacturingBut Great Advances in Manufacturing

© LSI Logic 2003

End of an Era?End of an Era?

Vacuum tubes to PCsVacuum tubes to PCsPCs to PlatformsPCs to PlatformsPlatforms to …Platforms to …The Lloyd Laptop?The Lloyd Laptop?

63.5 µm63.5 µm

© LSI Logic 2003

The Complexity SqueezeThe Complexity Squeeze

Exists at Many Levels as a TwoExists at Many Levels as a Two--edged Sword:edged Sword:SocialSocialHardware: Within & Between Chips and ProductsHardware: Within & Between Chips and ProductsSoftware: Applications and Systems S/W is WeakSoftware: Applications and Systems S/W is WeakSystem Structure: Networks Scale PoorlySystem Structure: Networks Scale PoorlyThe Social Sources of Competing System Products The Social Sources of Competing System Products work against Harmonious Interoperation and work against Harmonious Interoperation and Simplicity of UseSimplicity of UseReal Time Quality is Alien to the Computer/PC Real Time Quality is Alien to the Computer/PC ModelModelStands in the way of The Next Big ThingStands in the way of The Next Big Thing

© LSI Logic 2003

Times Have Changed…Times Have Changed…

19681968

19671967

© LSI Logic 2003

BeckensteinBeckenstein, Lloyd, & , Lloyd, & BremermannBremermann

The ultimate limits:The ultimate limits:2*10**47 bits / sec / gm?2*10**47 bits / sec / gm?5.4258*10**50 ops / sec?5.4258*10**50 ops / sec?10**66 bits / cm?10**66 bits / cm?

© LSI Logic 2003

How to organize complexity How to organize complexity ----Efficient irregularity?…Efficient irregularity?…

(H. Dietz)(H. Dietz)

(A. Thompson)(A. Thompson)

……but these are poor design mapsbut these are poor design mapsfor humanfor human--driven design processesdriven design processes

© LSI Logic 2003

The Device Space & The Device Space & FabFab CouplingCoupling

CoupledCoupled

DecoupledDecoupled

Gene

ral

Gene

ral Specific

Specific

ASIC / ASSPASIC / ASSP

FPGAFPGANetwork Network

ProcessorsProcessors

Standard Cell / Standard Cell / Gate ArrayGate Array

© LSI Logic 2003

What is a Platform ASIC?What is a Platform ASIC?

Platform Platform ASICsASICs Entail Some or All of:Entail Some or All of:Encapsulated IP BlocksEncapsulated IP BlocksLate metal customizationLate metal customizationI/Os and Mixed Signal BlocksI/Os and Mixed Signal BlocksProcessors and DSPProcessors and DSPProgrammable Logic BlocksProgrammable Logic BlocksMemory BlocksMemory BlocksInterconnectInterconnectReconfigurable CoresReconfigurable Cores

The Design Environment is Part and Parcel of the The Design Environment is Part and Parcel of the ArchitectureArchitecture

© LSI Logic 2003

Types of PlatformTypes of Platform

Platforms between FPGA and ASICPlatforms between FPGA and ASICNeed for Risk MitigationNeed for Risk Mitigation

Number of DesignsNumber of Designs

CellCell--Based ASICBased ASIC

Area of Area of OpportunityOpportunity

Des

ign

Com

plex

ityD

esig

n C

ompl

exity

FPGAFPGA

100s100s 1,000s1,000s 10,000s10,000s

Perf

orm

ance

Perf

orm

ance

Pow

er E

ffici

ency

Pow

er E

ffici

ency

Vol

ume

Prod

uctio

nV

olum

e Pr

oduc

tion

© LSI Logic 2003

What is What is RapidChipRapidChip??

Customer Customer Logic/IPLogic/IP

RapidChipRapidChip

LSI LogicLSI Logic“Soft” “Soft” CoreWareCoreWare

RapidChipRapidChipDesign Tools Design Tools

& Methodology& Methodology

RapidChipRapidChipDesign Tools Design Tools

& Methodology& Methodology

Application SetApplication Set

System System Architecture/DesignArchitecture/Design

LSI Logic LSI Logic CoreWareCoreWare®®

Processor(s)Processor(s)DSPDSPMemoryMemory

Programmable LogicProgrammable LogicInterconnectInterconnectCustomizable ArrayCustomizable Array

© LSI Logic 2003

Product Value StackProduct Value Stack

More softwareMore softwareHigher integrationHigher integrationLower powerLower powerHigher reliabilityHigher reliabilityEasier to useEasier to useHigher bandwidthHigher bandwidthMore storageMore storageBetter image & signal qualityBetter image & signal qualitySmaller packagesSmaller packagesLighterLighterLower costLower cost

© LSI Logic 2003

Cautionary NotesCautionary Notes

Systems’ complexity makes them less usableSystems’ complexity makes them less usableBlue Screen of DeathBlue Screen of DeathCell Phone Dropouts Cell Phone Dropouts Viruses and WormsViruses and WormsSpamSpamIdentity Theft & Security Tower of BabelIdentity Theft & Security Tower of BabelMediocre Audio/Video on PCsMediocre Audio/Video on PCs

Even as HDTV comes on StrongEven as HDTV comes on Strong

DRM Must be solvedDRM Must be solved

© LSI Logic 2003

4.0 12.425.0

61.5

94.3

126.5160.6

191.4

221.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Millions / Subscribers

Source: In-S tat/MDR, 2003

WW Broadband SubscribersWW Broadband Subscribers

© LSI Logic 2003

New FunctionsNew Functions

For Instance, For Instance, AI for WirelessAI for WirelessDigital EntertainmentDigital EntertainmentBB--toto--B NetworksB NetworksAerospaceAerospace

GUI SophisticationGUI SophisticationSignal Management for ConsumersSignal Management for ConsumersThe Shift to System Integration:The Shift to System Integration:

Functional Density vs.Functional Density vs.Packaging Density Packaging Density vs. gates or transistorsvs. gates or transistors

Methodology Must Keep UpMethodology Must Keep Up

© LSI Logic 2003

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

WW Mobile Subscribers Growth WW Mobile Subscribers Growth Exceeds TV and PCsExceeds TV and PCs

Source: Sonera / GoldmanSachs, February 2000

Millions / Units

TV Households

Mobile SubscribersPersonal Computers

© LSI Logic 2003

Hope Springs EternalHope Springs Eternal

High Tech Industry’s Response:High Tech Industry’s Response:R&D InvestmentsR&D InvestmentsAcademic Vitality and VigorAcademic Vitality and VigorNew Departures in Architectures:New Departures in Architectures:

Platforms and MethodologyPlatforms and MethodologySystems and CommunicationsSystems and CommunicationsYield and ErrorYield and Error

The Art of the Small:The Art of the Small:Quantity drives Quality: New StructuresQuantity drives Quality: New StructuresThe Advent of the Quantum SystemThe Advent of the Quantum SystemBiobricksBiobricks and and NanotubesNanotubes

Singularity Ahead?Singularity Ahead?Ambient IntelligenceAmbient IntelligenceDigital Entertainment AvalancheDigital Entertainment AvalancheService Industries depend on high tech completelyService Industries depend on high tech completely

© LSI Logic 2003

Platforms Beyond ComputersPlatforms Beyond Computers

Content Will RuleContent Will RuleCommunication is the FocusCommunication is the FocusPlatforms will Support Security, Real Time Platforms will Support Security, Real Time Quality, and ReliabilityQuality, and Reliability‘Computation’ Yields to ‘Convolution’‘Computation’ Yields to ‘Convolution’The Signal is the DatumThe Signal is the DatumRotating Memory…Rotating Memory……Gives way to Solid State…Gives way to Solid State…and Beyond…and BeyondPersonal Databases will AboundPersonal Databases will Abound

© LSI Logic 2003

The Realm of the SmallThe Realm of the Small

Small Means ComplexSmall Means ComplexComputer Dust?Computer Dust?Complexity isn’t just technical:Complexity isn’t just technical:

RFIDsRFIDsCf. GilletteCf. Gillette

The Singularity and the Proteome/Silicon CollisionThe Singularity and the Proteome/Silicon CollisionStructural Problems must be resolved before these Structural Problems must be resolved before these technologies can flourishtechnologies can flourish

© LSI Logic 2003

PostPost--CMOS StructuresCMOS Structures

Nanotechnology is Progressing so Fast Nanotechnology is Progressing so Fast It’s Impossible to Forecast Reliably It’s Impossible to Forecast Reliably ––

Synthetic RNA StructuresSynthetic RNA StructuresQuantum ComputingQuantum ComputingCarbon Carbon NanotubesNanotubes, etc., etc.…new breakthroughs daily!…new breakthroughs daily!

Main challenge is scaling Main challenge is scaling manufacturing for high yieldmanufacturing for high yield

© LSI Logic 2003

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

World to Consume 1 Billion Transistors World to Consume 1 Billion Transistors Per Capita by 2008Per Capita by 2008

Source: SIA, World Bank

Per Capita Consumption Increases 55% Per YearMillions of Transistors

Per Person

© LSI Logic 2003

In Conclusion… High Tech Lives!In Conclusion… High Tech Lives!

Complexity will drive us to Complexity will drive us to ----Integrate from molecule to user interfaceIntegrate from molecule to user interfaceUnify hardware and software designUnify hardware and software designUse higher level abstractionsUse higher level abstractionsFocus on structureFocus on structure

While markets demandWhile markets demandQuicker time to marketQuicker time to marketGreater ease of useGreater ease of useFaster / better / cheaperFaster / better / cheaperMore reliability, security, quality of serviceMore reliability, security, quality of service

Platforms help solve this…Platforms help solve this…But a new integrated system paradigm is also required.But a new integrated system paradigm is also required.

© LSI Logic 2003

®