HonorVise Overview
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Transcript of HonorVise Overview
Giving You The Best Opportunity For Success
Applying Scientific Research to the Real World of Investing
Agenda
Review of common investment challenges and approaches
– Randomness of returns
– Picking winning stocks
– Timing the market
– Picking active managers
– The Cost of Indexing
Our investment approach
– Strategic partnership with institutional investment managers
– Academically sound portfolio construction
– Keeping costs low
– Honorvise portfolios
2
The Randomness of Returns
US Large Cap is the S&P 500 Index. US Large Value is the Fama/French Large Value Index (ex utilities). US Small Cap is the CRSP 9-10 Index. US Small Cap Value is the Fama/French Small Value Index (ex utilities). US Real Estate is the
Dow Jones Wilshire REIT Index. International Large Value is the Fama/French International Value Index. International Small Cap and International Small Cap Value compiled by Dimensional from Style Research securities data; includes
securities of MSCI EAFE countries in the 10%-1% of ME range; market-capitalization weighted; each country capped at 50%; value defined as the top 30% of book-to-market; rebalanced semi-annually. Emerging Markets is the MSCI
Emerging Markets Index (gross dividends). One-Year Fixed is the Merrill Lynch One-Year US Treasury Note Index. Five-Year Government Fixed is the Lehman Brothers Treasury Bond Index 1-5 Years. Five-Year Global Fixed is the Citigroup
World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years.
The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of Russell data. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago.
Fama/French data provided by Fama/French. Dow Jones Wilshire data provided by Dow Jones Indexes. See MSCI disclosure page for additional information. Lehman Brothers data provided by Lehman Brothers, Inc. The Merrill Lynch
indices are used with permission; copyright 2007 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Cit igroup bond indices copyright 2007 by Citigroup.
Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Picking Individual Securities
“Here’s a buy-and-forget portfolio to
capitalize on the
10 Stocks To Last The Decade.”
Return on whole portfolio through August 18, 2008?
(34.72)%
$1,000,000 to $652,800
1. Broadcom
2. Charles Schwab
3. Enron
4. Genentech
5. Morgan Stanley
6. Nokia
7. Nortel Network
8. Oracle
9. Univision
10.Viacom
Returns as of 8/18/2008
(81%)
(33%)
Oops!
152%
(40%)
(33%)
(99%)
(38%)
(26%)
Kind of hard to explain…
4
Source: Motley Fool Stock Advisor: “10 Stocks to Last the Decade, Revisited”, By Bill Barker, August 19, 2008
Selecting Mutual Funds
“All the time and effort that people devote
to picking the right fund, the hot hand, the
great manager, have in most cases led to
no advantage.”
- Peter Lynch, Beating the Street (New York, Simon
And Shuster, 1993) 60
The Difficulty With Fund
Selection
“Unless you are lucky, or extremely skillful in the selection of managers, you’re going to have a much better experience going with the index fund…”
Bill Miller, manager of the Legg Mason Value Trust Fund,
Money Magazine Interview, July 2007
Average Annual Total Returns
(%)
Quarter End as of June 30, 2008
3MO 1YR 3YR 5YR 10YR INCEP
Legg Mason Value Trust -11.07 -36.41 -8.62 -0.40 2.18 13.29
6
The performance shown represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower
than the performance shown. Principal value and investment returns will fluctuate, and investors' shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than
the original cost. Source: http://www.leggmason.com/individualinvestors/products/mutual-funds/performance/LMVT.aspx
Trying to Time the Market
The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. US bonds and bills data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually
updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the
management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that
an investor may lose money.
Performance of the S&P 500 Index
January 1970-December 2006
7
$51,299
$47,021
$38,105
$23,970
$16,232
$8,613
Growth of
$1,000
Total
Period
11.23%
Annualized
Compound Return
Missed 1
Best Day
10.97%
Missed 5
Best Days
10.34%
Missed 15
Best Days
Missed 25
Best Days
7.82%8.97%
One-Month
T-Bills
5.99%
Separately Managed Accounts
Advantages:
Tax Efficiency
Customization
Manager Selection
Disadvantages:
The fees are high
No advantage to choosing portfolio managers vs. mutual funds
No compelling tax management advantages vs. low cost highly tax efficient ETF’s or passively managed portfolios
Higher minimum account size making diversification difficult
Source: Seeking Alpha: Stock Opinion and Analysis, July 2006
8
Hedge Funds
Features:
May be aggressively managed
Can be riskier due to concentration of investments
Open to Accredited Investors only
Not required to register with the SEC
Hard to value
High fees
Since mid-2007, 67 distinct funds from 37 major hedge fund providers have
“imploded*”.
Source: Hedge Fund Implode-O-Meter, http:// hf-implode.com
* The "imploded" list contains hedge funds (or other unregulated and autonomous speculative investment funds) which have gone through some sort of permanent adverse change. This is a somewhat subjective call, and does not necessarily mean total shutdown or bankruptcy. It can also mean steep and rapid mark-downs in net asset value; or abnormal "bail-out" by corporate parents or peers in order to avoid write-downs and provide liquidity. The funds are of any type and sector.
Are Index Funds the Answer?
“Most investors, both institutional and
individual, will find that the best way to own
common stocks is through an index fund that
charges minimal fees.”
Warren Buffet, Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. 1996 Annual
Report chairman’s letter in www.berkshirehathaway.com
The Effect of Index Reconstitution on Stock Prices
S&P 500 data source: Anthony Lynch and Richard Mendenhall, “New Evidence on Stock Price Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 Index,” Journal of Business 70, no. 3 (July 1997): 351-83. MSCI
EAFE Index data source: Rajesh Chakrabarti, Wei Huang, Narayanan Jayaraman, and Jinsoo Lee, “Price and Volume Effects of Changes in MSCI Indices: Nature and Causes,” Journal of Banking and Finance
29, no. 5 (May 2005): 1237-64.
For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
S1740.2
S&P 500 Index
MSCI EAFE
Index
One-Day Return after
Announcement (%)
3.2 3.4
Run-Up to Effective Date (%) 3.8 4.5
Decay after Effective Date (%) -2.1 -2.6
Announcement Effective
Price
Time
• Stocks rise on
announcement of inclusion.
• Index funds are forced to buy
high on effective date.
• Buying and selling to track
index changes reduces
tracking error but generates
transaction costs.
Volume of Additions Around Effective Date
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors
12
Market Cap Weighted Relative to S&P 500 Index
1996-2003
Agenda
Review of common investment challenges and approaches
– Randomness of returns
– Picking winning stocks
– Timing the market
– Picking active managers
– The Cost of Indexing
Our Investment approach
– Strategic partnership with institutional investment managers
– Academically sound portfolio construction
– Keeping costs low
– HonorVise™ portfolios 13
Investor Needs
Diversify Portfolio
Reduce expenses
Minimize Taxes (and turnover).
Stay Disciplined (long term horizon)
Risk and return are related
14
Strategic Partnership
Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA)
The mission of Dimensional Fund Advisors is to deliver the performance of capital markets
and increase returns through state-of-the-art portfolio design and trading.
– Founded in 1981
– $152 Billion in AUM (as of December, 2007)
– Investment Pioneers
• Rex Sinquefield – Co-founder of DFA, credited with inventing index investing
• David G. Booth – Co-founder of DFA, pioneer of indexing and small cap investing
• Eugene F. Fama – Efficient Markets Hypothesis, Multifactor Asset Pricing Model and Value
Effect
• Kenneth R. French – Capital Markets Research, Multifactor Asset Pricing Model and Value
Effect
15
Structured Management
Active Management Index Management
Attempts to beat the market through
security selection and market timing
Undermines asset class exposure to only
buy “underpriced” securities
Generates higher fees, trading costs, and
tax consequences due to increased turnover
Targets index returns
Delivers asset class returns minus indexing
costs
Accepts high transaction costs and turnover
in favor of tracking
Structured Asset Class Investing
Combines qualities of active and passive investing
Grounded in the theory of the efficiency of capital markets
Captures specific dimensions of risk identified by academic research
Seeks to minimize transaction costs and enhance returns through trading
and engineering
16
A Partial List of DFA’s Institutional Clients
17
Progress through Scientific Principles
The Maturity Risk/Return Tradeoff
Source: One-Month US Treasury Bills, Five-Year US Treasury Notes, and Twenty-Year (Long-Term) US Government Bonds provided by Ibbotson Associates. Six-Month US Treasury Bills provided by CRSP
(1964-1977) and Merrill Lynch (1978-present). One-Year US Treasury Notes provided by CRSP (1964-May 1991) and Merrill Lynch (June 1991-present). Ibbotson data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation
Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The
Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2008 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved.
Indexes are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.
Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk because the prices of fixed income securities tend to move in the opposite direction of interest rates. In general, fixed income
securities with longer maturities are more sensitive to these price changes and may experience greater fluctuation in returns.
S1270.4
• Not all investors define risk as
standard deviation. Some
investors may seek to hedge
long-term liabilities using long-
term bonds.
• Historically, longer-maturity
instruments have higher
standard deviations and have
not provided consistently
greater returns.
10.846.182.331.711.32Annualized Standard Deviation (%)
7.497.386.716.535.78Annualized Compound Return (%)
Twenty-Year US
Govt. Bonds
Five-Year US
Treasury Notes
One-Year US
Treasury Notes
Six-Month US
Treasury Bills
One-Month US
Treasury BillsMaturity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Annualized
Compound Returns
Annualized
Standard Deviation
Quarterly: 1964-2007
• Equity Market
(Complete Value-weighted universe of stocks)
Stocks have higher expected returns than
fixed income.
• Company Size
(Measured by market capitalization)
Small company stocks have higher expected
returns than large company stocks.
• Company Price
(Measured by ratio of company book value to market equity)
Lower-priced “Value” stocks have higher expected returns than
higher-priced “growth” stocks
Multifactor Analysis
The Dimensions of Stock Returns
Three Dimensions Around the World
Growth(Low BtM)
Value(High BtM)
Large
Small
Total
Stock
Market
The Risks Worth Taking - Equities
20
S1220.2
Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of
future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Small company risk: Securities of small firms are often
less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Emerging markets risk: Numerous emerging countries have experienced serious,
and potentially continuing, economic and political problems. Stock markets in many emerging countries are relatively small, expensive, and risky. Foreigners are often limited in their ability to invest
in, and withdraw assets from, these markets. Additional restrictions may be imposed under other conditions. Foreign securities and currencies risk: Foreign securities prices may decline or fluctuate
because of: (a) economic or political actions of foreign governments, and/or (b) less regulated or liquid securities markets. Investors holding these securities are also exposed to foreign currency risk
(the possibility that foreign currency will fluctuate in value against the US dollar).
In US dollars. Developed markets value and growth index data provided by Fama/French, ex utilities. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by
the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. International Small Index data: 1970-June 1981, 50% UK small cap stocks provided by the London Business School and 50%
Japan small cap stocks provided by Nomura Securities; July 1981-present, compiled by Dimensional from StyleResearch securities data; includes securities of MSCI EAFE Index countries, market-
capitalization weighted, each country capped at 50%; rebalanced semiannually. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2008, all rights reserved; see MSCI disclosure page for additional information. Emerging
markets index data compiled by Fama/French from countries in the IFC Investable Universe; indices are free-float weighted both within each country and across all countries. Standard deviation is a
statistical measure of risk. Generally speaking, the higher the standard deviation, the greater the risk.
Annual Index Data
Size and Value Effects Around the World
Risk Factors Have Periods of
Under- and Over- Performance
• From year to year, stocks with
high book-to-market ratios and
smaller market caps do not
always produce higher returns.
• Over longer time periods, the
size and value premiums are
more prevalent.
S1240.3
Multifactor data provided by Fama/French. SmB and HmL research factors.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. Securities of small firms are
often less liquid than those of large companies. As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Even a long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. Economic, political, and
issuer-specific events will cause the value of securities, and the funds that own them, to rise or fall. Because the value of investments will fluctuate, there is a risk that investors will lose money.
US Value Premium
US Size Premium
Annual: 1927-2007
A Structured Approach to
Asset Allocation
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3
Lehman Government / Credit Bond Index 40%
S&P 500 Index 60% 30% 7.50%
One-Year US Treasury Note Index 40% 40%
CRSP 9-10 Index 30% 7.50%
Fama/French US Small Value Index 7.50%
Fama/French US Large Value Index 7.50%
Fama/French International Value Index 15%
Dimensional International Small Cap Index 15%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Annualized Portfolio Return 10.31 11.00 12.24
Annualized Standard Deviation 10.94 12.51 10.87
23
Quarterly Data: 1973 – 2006
For illustrative purposes only. Lehman data provided by Lehman Brothers, Inc. The S&P Data are provided by Standard & Poors Index Services Group. One-Year Treasury Note index provided by Merrill
Lynch. CRSP 9-10 Index data provided for the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Fama/French data provided by Fama/French. International Value data provided by
Fama/French (January 1975 – January 2004) and MSCI EAFE index (net dividends) (January 1973 – December 1974), data copyrighted MSCI, 2006. All rights reserved. International Small Cap Index,
June 1970 – June 1981. 50% UK Small Cap stocks and 50% Japan Small Cap stocks (1981 – present). Simulated by Dimensional from StyleResearch securities data, includes securities of MSCI EAFE
countries, market capitalization weighted, each country capped at 50%. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of
an actual portfolio.
Dimensional Has Relatively Low Expenses
24
The Value of Low Fees
$4,983,951
$3,745,318
$2,806,794
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years
Time
1% Fee
2% Fee
3% FeeD
oll
ars
Assumed 6.5% Annualized Return over 30 Years
• Fees Matter.
• Over long time periods, high
management fees and related expenses
can be a significant drag on wealth
creation.
• Passive investments generally
maintain lower fees than the average
actively managed investment by
minimizing trading costs and
eliminating the costs of researching
stocks.
25
The Results – Positive Alpha
Source: Which Fund Families Have the Best Managers? Ranked by Their 3 Year Alpha. Reprinted with permission from the January/February issue
Broker/Dealer Journal TM
The Results – Positive Alpha
The Impact of Volatility
Year 1
Return
Year 2
Return
Average
Return
Compound
Return
Value at End
of Year 2
Portfolio #1 50% -50% 0%
Portfolio #2 10% -10% 0%
Impact on a Hypothetical $100,000 Portfolio
For illustrative purposes only.
S1010.2
-13.4%
-0.5%
$75,000
$99,000