16  June  2010    Dear  Premier  Bligh,  Lord  Mayor  Newman,  and  Mayor  Clarke    RE:  2010  CYCLONE  HYPOTHETICAL    As  you  may  be  aware  Green  Cross  has  been  involved  in  a  significant  Cyclone  Hypothetical  on  a  national  stage  that  addressed  the  very  real  prospects  of  a  major  cyclone  hitting  Southeast  Queensland  directly.      A  discussion  of  Queensland  severe  weather  exposure  involving  Federal  Ministers,  business  and  community  leaders  is  rapidly  emerging.  The  risk  is,  as  you  know,  not  hypothetical.  

 I  am  writing  to  you  to  place  key  points  coming  out  of  the  Cyclone  Hypothetical  on  your  radar.  Please  consider  the  attached  briefing  in  this  light.  I  have  copied  business  and  community  stakeholders  engaged  in  this  dialogue  on  the  final  page.    Yours  faithfully  

       

 Mara  Bún  Chief  Executive  Officer    Green  Cross  Australia  79  Adelaide  Street,  Level  2,  PO  Box  12117  George  Street  Brisbane  QLD  4003    P:  07  3003  0644      |    M:  0448  848  860      |      F:  07  3003  0855  E:  mara@greencrossaustralia.org      W:  www.greencrossaustralia.org  |W:  www.extremeweatherheroes.org  |W:  www.greenlanediary.org        

cc:              Penny  Wong,  Minister  for  Climate  Change  Bruce  Billson,  Shadow  Minister  for  Sustainable  Cities  Caryn  Kakas,  Executive  Director,  Residential  Council,  Property  Council  of  Australia      Rod  Leaver,  CEO  –  Australia,  Lend  Lease  Tony  Coleman,  Director  Lonergan  Edwards  Andrew  Ash,  Director,  CSIRO  Climate  Change  Adaptation  Flagship  Nicole  Gamerov,  Vice  President,  Swiss  Re  Martin  Myer,  Chair,  National  Business  Leaders  Forum  on  Sustainable  Development  Molly  Harris  Olson,  Convenor,  National  Business  Leaders  Forum  on  Sustainable  Devp  Khory  McCormick,  Chair,  Green  Cross  Australia  [A  broader  group  of  copied  stakeholders  is  included  on  page  5  below]

Hon.  Anna  Bligh  Premier  of  Queensland  PO  Box  15185  City  East  Queensland    4002  Fax:  07  3221  3631  ThePremier@premiers.qld.gov.au    

Mayor  Ron  Clarke  Gold  Coast  City  Council  GCCC  Chambers  135  Bundall  Road  Surfers  Paradise  QLD  4217  Fax:  07  5581  6054  mayor@goldcoast.qld.gov.au    

   

Lord  Mayor  Campbell  Newman  Brisbane  City  Council  Office  of  the  Lord  Mayor  GPO  Box  2287  Brisbane  QLD  4001  Fax:  0734039930  lordmayor@brisbane.qld.gov.au    

    In  partnership  with    

Green  Cross  International      Mikhail  S.  Gorbachev    Founder      

Mara  Bún    CEO    

Green  Cross  Australia  BOARD  OF  DIRECTORS      

Board  Chairman    Khory  McCormick  Senior  Partner,    Minter  Ellison  Lawyers    

Brett  Godfrey  Founder,  Virgin  Blue      

Clem  Campbell    Chair,  Earth  Charter  Australia  

 

Peter  Ellyard    Director,  Preferred  Futures  Institute    

Paul  Hardisty  Executive  Director,  Sustainability,  WorleyParsons    

Tom  Kennedy    Head  of  Digital,  Omnilab  Media  

 

Kerry  Gardner    Environmental  &    social  philanthropist    

Tony  Coleman  Director,  Lonergan  Edwards  &  Associates      

Nadia  McLaren  Ecologist  &  Consultant          

Blair  Palese  CEO,  350.org    

Andrew  Ash  Director,  CSIRO  Climate  Change  Adaptation  Flagship    

ADVISORY  PANEL      

Alastair  McCracken  Angie  Cathcart  Cam  Mackenzie  Charlie  Hargroves  Cheryl  Desha  Damian  Morgan    Di  Morgan    Heather  Jeffery  Ian  Dunlop  Ian  Lowe  James  Bradfield  Moody  James  Porteous    James  Woods  Jelenko  Dragisic    John  Cherry    Judy  Magub    Kylie  Ahern  Louise  Erbacher  Max  Standage    Marianne  Hanson  Molly  Harriss  Olson    Neil  Davidson    Noel  Preston  Philip  Bangerter  Phillip  Toyne  Richard  Sanders    Ros  Kelly    Sonia  Caton  Tony  Fry    Tor  Hundloe  Wilson  da  Silva    Linda  Dreghorn  Company  Secretary    

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On  May  28  2010  a  “Southeast  Queensland  Cyclone  Hypothetical”  took  place  in  Parliament  House  Canberra  as  part  of  the  National  Business  Leader’s  Forum  on  Sustainable  Development.  Green  Cross  Australia  addresses  community  resilience  in  the  context  of  mitigating  environmental  stresses.  To  address  Queensland  cyclone  exposure  risk,  Green  Cross  and  the  Property  Council  of  Australia  invited  Radio  National  Breakfast’s  Fran  Kelly  to  moderate  a  frank  dialogue  between  government,  business  and  community  leaders.  Outcomes  of  this  exchange  are  outlined  below,  with  the  following  background  in  mind.      

Queensland  policy  context  Green  Cross  has  been  selected  as  “Foundation  Partner”  of  the  Bligh  Government,  to  assist  in  reducing  household  greenhouse  emissions  by  30%  by  2030  through  our  post-­‐disaster  “Build  it  Back  Green”  program.  We  are  grateful  for  the  Brumby  government’s  support  for  our  “Build  it  Back  Green”  initiative  in  Victoria  –  this  work  is  modelled  after  a  successful  green  recovery  effort  in  the  Ninth  Ward  of  New  Orleans  led  by  our  US  affiliate.    In  Queensland  Green  Cross  and  our  business,  research  and  community  partners  are  preparing  for  a  similar  sustainable  recovery  following  on  from  the  next  major  weather  event.  We  work  in  a  bi-­‐partisan  fashion  consistent  with  our  role  of  catalysing  and  convening  collaborative  initiatives.      Our  post-­‐disaster  engagement  occurs  within  the  context  of  Queensland’s  Natural  Disaster  Resilience  Program.  Green  Cross’s  youth  emergency  volunteering  program  

“Extreme  Weather  Heroes”  is  dedicated  to  building  community  severe  weather  resilience  led  by  young  people  in  their  communities.      SEQ  major  weather  event  cycles  Gold  Coast  City  Council  funds  an  important  research  facility  at  Griffith  University  led  by  Roger  Tomlinson  who  has  researched  coastal  vulnerability  in  SEQ  for  over  20  years.      I  encourage  you  to  watch  this  short  video.  It  stresses  that  major  weather  events  occur  in  this  region  in  30-­‐year  cycles.  The  last  major  event  happened  in  1967.  The  video  highlights  the  risk  of  a  cyclone  impacting  on  the  shallow  water  environment  of  Moreton  Bay  then  building  into  a  storm  surge  that  comes  through  the  Broadwater,  possibly  reaching  over  4  metres  in  height  as  it  flows  through  exposed  canal  developments.      Historical  cyclone  tracking  patterns.  This  Bureau  of  Meteorology  slide  shows  a  100-­‐year  profile  of  cyclone  activity  around  Australia.  Historically  cyclones  tend  to  veer  off  the  Queensland  coast.      Cyclone  activity  has  been  predicted  by  CSIRO  to  decrease  by  up  to  44%  in  some  areas  of  Australia.  The  number  of  extreme  cyclone  events  (Category  3-­‐5)  is  expected  to  increase  with  intensities  increasing  by  over  100%  by  2070.  On  the  east  coast  of  Australia  cyclones  are  projected  to  be  longer  lived  and  the  average  decay  location  of  cyclones  is  predicted  to  move  southwards  by  up  to  3  degrees  of  latitude.1  

                                                                                                             1  Climate  Change  in  Australia  (2007).  CSIRO,  Australia.    

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cS2HJv8p5kk    

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-­‐bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1906&eyear=2006&cyclone=all&loc=0      

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Potential  financial  impact  of  a  major  cyclone  event  The  global  re-­‐insurance  industry  is  acutely  aware  of  growing  severe  weather  risks  associated  with  a  warming  planet  and  growing  coastal  population  growth  and  economic  development.      This  slide  shows  Munich  Re’s  assessment  of  the  estimated  insured  losses  if  the  1967  event  referred  to  by  Roger  Tomlinson  had  taken  place  100  to  150  kilometres  further  south.  Potential  losses  could  reach  US$8-­‐14billion  –  which  does  not  take  into  account  un-­‐insured  economic  losses.  This  factor  becomes  increasingly  important  as  the  price  of  residential  severe  weather  insurance  becomes  prohibitive  for  SEQ  residents  exposed  to  flooding  and  storm  surge.      Gold  Coast  exposure  This  image  borrowed  from  Jim  McNoulty’s  presentation  to  the  Queensland  Growth  Summit  helps  to  focus  the  mind  on  the  dramatic  changes  that  have  taken  place  on  the  Gold  Coast  (not  to  mention  across  Brisbane  and  the  Sunshine  Coast)  since  our  last  major  weather  event  took  place  in  the  1960s.    Within  this  context,  the  Hypothetical  unfolded  in  Parliament  House  with  the  following  participants  and  background  setting.    The  event  was  conducted  without  media  coverage  to  encourage  an  open  exchange,  and  took  place  in  the  presence  of  an  audience  of  200  business  sustainability  leaders  from  across  manufacturing,  service  and  resource  sectors.  We  were  delighted  that  Climate  Change  Minister  Penny  Wong  and  Shadow  Minister  for  Sustainable  Cities  Bruce  Bilson  were  able  to  participate  in  our  vibrant  discussion.    

 

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Key  points  arising  from  the  2010  Cyclone  Hypothetical    

Risk  mitigation  -­‐  Katrina  proved  to  be  an  abject  failure  of  integrated  severe  event  response  and  government  leadership.  We  have  learned  important  lessons  from  Black  Saturday  that  now  need  to  inform  community  resilience  strategies  and  methods  for  fully  integrated  responses  from  all  tiers  of  government.  Stakeholders  copied  in  this  open  letter  need  to  talk  constructively  before  our  next  major  weather  event,  not  afterwards.  We  look  to  government  to  assist  engaged  community  and  business  sector  leaders  in  developing  integrated  response  strategies.  We  look  to  all  stakeholders  to  improve  community  understanding  of  and  resilience  to  severe  weather  risks.    

Information  asymmetry  –  Compared  to  government  and  business  stakeholders,  the  community  at  large  is  ill  informed  about  coastal  severe  weather  risks.  Conflicting  reports  about  the  extent  of  sea  level  rise  and  severe  weather  trends  make  it  challenging  for  informed  investment  decisions  to  be  made.  Many  residents  in  storm  surge  exposed  areas  do  not  understand  under  what  circumstances  they  are  insured.  As  digital  elevation  mapping  information  becomes  more  readily  available  through  research  investments  by  all  level  of  governments,  communities  need  to  access  this  in  better  ways.      

Retrofitting  for  resilience  –  Modest  investments  in  practical  resilience  measures  can  reduce  building  damage  rates  significantly.  For  example  during  Cyclone  Larry  buildings  built  to  the  post  1980  building  code  level  incurred  much  less  damage  than  pre  1980  buildings.  Poorly  maintained  buildings  also  incurred  significantly  more  damage.  The  opportunity  to  incentivise  retrofitting  for  resilience  at  the  same  time  as  encouraging  household  energy  efficiency  measures  should  be  explored.    

Invest  in  coastal  protection  -­‐  Investments  in  protective  infrastructure  can  deliver  significant  savings  in  light  of  growing  severe  weather  risk.  A  $1b  investment  in  raising  levy  walls  in  New  Orleans  identified  in  2001  could  have  saved  losses  of  $125  billion  from  Hurricane  Katrina  in  2005.  A  1991  US  EPA  study  quantified  the  cost  of  protecting  resorts,  coastal  developments  and  prominent  wetlands  from  a  1-­‐metre  sea  level  rise  at  US$471  billion  (in  1991  dollars).  Australia  should  quantify  coastal  adaptation  priorities  and  cost  these  to  identify  immediate  “value  for  money/life”  investment  priorities.      

Harmonising  standards  and  aligning  them  to  research  trends  –Standards  and  building  codes  vary  across  geographies  in  Australia,  and  this  makes  it  challenging  for  developers  and  planners  to  achieve  uniform,  best  practice  results.  At  the  same  time  research  findings  are  out-­‐pacing  code  development  so  more  flexible  mechanisms  are  needed  to  encourage  resilient  new  developments  in  response  to  population  growth  and  housing  shortages.    

Integrating  mitigation  into  adaptation  investments  –  Unless  all  retrofitting,  new  building  and  protective  infrastructure  is  delivered  through  low  emissions  technologies  and  materials,  the  greenhouse  cycle  will  be  refuelled.  Given  affordability  challenges  a  revitalised  focus  on  incentives  for  affordable  sustainable  solutions  is  needed.  The  combination  of  sustainability  and  resilience  must  be  applied  with  particular  emphasis  in  post-­‐disaster  recovery  efforts  to  achieve  ECO-­‐RESILIENT  outcomes  consistent  with  Green  Cross’s  “Flowerdale  Build  it  Back  Green”  sustainable  bushfire  recovery  initiative.    

Aligned  incentives  –  Eco-­‐resilient  new  developments  can  result  in  cost  savings  for  some  sectors  (eg  energy  providers)  and  extra  costs  to  others  (eg  developers).  Likewise  the  payback  on  eco-­‐resilient  investments  will  occur  over  difference  timescales  for  different  stakeholders.  In  order  to  progress  model  eco-­‐resilient  new  developments  and  retrofitting,  incentives  need  to  be  aligned  across  sectors.    

Cost  curve  for  adaptation  –  Just  as  McKinsey  and  more  recently  ClimateWorks  have  quantified  the  cost  curve  for  the  full  suite  of  mitigation  measures  required  to  deliver  emissions  cuts  across  the  Australian  economy,  adaptation  cost  curves  should  also  be  developed  to  enable  fast-­‐tracking  of  best  value-­‐for-­‐money  investments  and  provide  net  economic  benefits.  This  will  enable  practical  action  priorities  to  be  adopted  transparently.  Practical  actions  are  likely  to  include  community  behavioural  change  priorities  according  to  recent  insurance  research  and  these  should  be  encouraged.    

Novel  insurance  responses  should  be  investigated  –  The  potential  for  government  schemes  which  trigger  immediate  payout  under  specified  severe  weather  conditions  should  be  evaluated.    The  historical  debate  about  government  underpinned  flood  insurance  takes  on  a  difference  sense  of  urgency  given  climate  modelling  predictions.  In  the  US  FEMA  has  compulsory  but  affordable  flood  insurance  requirements  for  hazard  identified  high  risk  zones  –  its  time  for  Australia  to  seriously  consider  new  approaches  to  insurance  because  this  can  become  a  good  educational  tool  as  well  as  improving  preparedness.    

Public  information  campaign  –  Federal,  State  and  Local  governments  have  invested  considerable  funding  into  research  that  can  inform  households  across  Australia  about  severe  weather  resilience  challenges  in  their  local  areas.  However  less  progress  has  been  made  in  community  engagement  with  this  vital  information.  Collaborative  business/government/community  programs  that  raise  awareness  about  severe  weather  preparedness,  risk  exposure  and  response  strategies  must  now  be  prioritised.  Community  self-­‐reliance  and  informed  investment  objectives  should  underpin  awareness  campaigns.    

Greater  coordination  of  research,  public  outreach  and  stakeholder  engagement  activities  across  all  levels  of  government  and  community  action  would  strengthen  Australia’s  ability  to  become  resilient  from  and  respond  to  severe  weather  risks.    Green  Cross  encourages  stakeholders  to  consider  the  merits  of  involving  the  Australian  Carbon  Trust  in  a  greater  coordination  role  that  links  mitigation  efforts  while  improving  community  resilience.    The  UK  Carbon  Trust  has  engaged  on  resilience  and  adaptation  matters  in  the  context  of  decarbonisation  programs  and  this  is  a  model  that  could  greatly  benefit  Australia.  

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Stakeholders  copied  in  this  “Open  Letter  –  Cyclone  Hypothetical”  Green  Cross’s  resilience  activities  are  reaching  a  growing  stakeholder  audience  including  guests  from  two  luncheons  hosted  by  Minter  Ellison  in  Melbourne  and  Lend  Lease  in  Queensland.  To  continue  to  catalyse  a  dialogue  the  following  individuals  are  copied  in  this  open  letter:  • Victorian Premier - John Brumby john.brumby@parliament.vic.gov.au • Victorian Environment Minister - Gavin Jennings Gavin.Jennings@parliament.vic.gov.au • Victorian Emergency Services Commissioner – Bruce Esplin oesc@justice.vic.gov.au • Vic. Building & Plumbing Commissioner (Chair Green Building Council of Australia) - Tony Arnell tarnel@buildingcommission.com.au • Victorian Bushfire Reconstruction and Recovery Authority Chair - Christine Nixon c/o Bianca.M.Davey@dpc.vic.gov.au • Victorian Bushfire Reconstruction and Recovery Authority CEO - Ben Hubbard Ben.Hubbard@dpc.vic.gov.au • Victorian Bushfire Reconstruction and Recovery Authority Senior Environment Adviser - Jane Tovey Jane.Tovey@dpc.vic.gov.au • Queensland Emergency Services Minister - Neil Roberts police@ministerial.qld.gov.au • Queensland Climate Change Minister - Kate Jones ccs@ministerial.qld.gov.au • Garry Sharman. Policy Advisor to Kate Jones garry.sharman@ministerial.qld.gov.au • Australian Carbon Trust – Rpbert Hill robert.hill.aus@gmail.com • Attorney General’s Department – Peter Channels Peter.Channells@ag.gov.au • Brisbane City Council – Greg Scroope Greg.Scroope@brisbane.qld.gov.au • Queensland Department of Community Services – Douglas Magendan douglas.magendanz@dcs.qld.gov.au • Federal Department of Climate Change – Patricia Willington patricia.willington@climatechange.gov.au • Federal Office of Climate change – Hannah Angus Hannah.Angus@climatechange.gov.au • Green Building Council of Australia - Romilly Madew Romilly.Madew@gbca.org.au • CSIRO Climate Change Adaptation Flagship (Green Cross Australia Director)- Andrew Ash andrew.ash@csiro.au • Infrastructure Australia - Mark Birrell mark.birrell@minterellison.com • Flowerdale Resident - Peter Auty peterjauty@gmail.com • Flowerdale Community Recovery Community Chair - John Burgess aandjburgess@bigpond.com • Flowerdale Community Leader (CEO Deloitte Digital) - Peter Williams pewilliams@deloitte.com.au • Property Council of Victoria - Jennifer Cunich jcunich@vic.propertyoz.com.au • Allen Consulting Group - Vince Fitzgerald c/o tsimonow@allenconsult.com.au • Environment writer – John Collee johncollee@bigpond.com • Myer Foundation (Green Cross Australia Director) - Kerry Gardner kgardner@tremarne.com.au • Worley Parsons (Green Cross Australia Director) Paul Hardisty Paul.Hardisty@WorleyParsons.com • Australian Conservation Foundation - Monica Richter m.richter@achonline.org.au • Habitat for Humanity Australia – Jo Brennan JBrennan@habitat.org.au • Alternative Technology Association – Ian Porter ian.porter@ata.org.au • Our Community - Carol Schwartz c/o lyn@schwartz.net.au • Parliamentary Secretary Victorian Bushfire Reconstruction - Bill Shorten bill.shorten.mp@aph.gov.au • Committee for Melbourne - Susan Vale c/o kbrowne@melbourne.org • Stockland - Ramana James ramana.james@stockland.com.au • Grocon Construction - David Waldren DavidWaldren@grocon.com.au • Arup - Andrew Wisdom – Andrew.wisdom@arup.com.au • Arup – Su Groome – su.groome@arup.com.au • Property Council Queensland - Steve Greenwood sgreenwood@propertyoz.com.au • Building Codes Queensland - Glen Brumby glen.brumby@dip.qld.gov.au • Bovis Lend Lease - Peter Ward peter.ward@lendlease.com.au • Bovis Lend Lease - Tony Orazio tony.orazio@lendlease.com.au • Bovis Lend Lease - Jeremy Mansfield Jeremy.mansfield@lendlease.com.au • Delfin Lend Lease - Guy Gibson guy.gibson@lendlease.com.au • Ergon Energy - Dean Comber dean.comber@ergon.com.au • Office of Climate Change – Greg Withers, John Ridgeway greg.withers@climatechange.qld.gov.au john.ridgway@climatechange.qld.gov.au • Office of Clean Energy - Travis Bates Travis.Bates@deedi.qld.gov.au • Green Building Council of Australia - Adam Beck adam.beck@arup.com.au • Architectus - Caroline Stalker caroline.stalker@architectus.com.au • IAG - Susan Hawkins susan.hawkins@iag.com.au • IAG – Nola Watson Nola.Watson@iag.com.au • Energex - Mark Paton markpaton@energex.com.au • Volunteering Queensland - Jelenko Dragisic jelenko.dragisic@volunteeringqld.org.au • Aecom - Nicole Moffatt nicole@moffatt@aecom.com • Endless Solar - Stephen Standish sstandish@endless-solar.com • Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management - michael.gerlach@derm.qld.gov.au ,, • Queensland Department of Infrastructure Mal Grierson - mal.grierson@publicworks.qld.gov.au • Local Government Association of Queensland - John Hallam Greg_hallam@lgaq.asn.au • Southeast Queensland Council of Mayors - John Cherry john.cherry@seqmayors.qld.gov.au • National Climate Change Research Facility - Jean Palutikof j.palutikof@griffith.edu.au • Griffith University - Rodger Tomlinson r.tomlinson@griffith.edu.au • Australia Industry Group - Chris Rodwell Chris.Rodwell@aigroup.asn.au • Australian National University - Michael Smith michaelharrisonsmith@yahoo.com.au • Suncorp – Gopal Edwards Gopal.EDWARDS@suncorp.com.au