Holding up the Sky: Women, Population and

Climate Change

State of World Population 2009 Pakistan Supplement

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INNER TITLE

Photo Credit: United Nations Population Fund Pakistan/Asad Zaidi Design: School of Art and Design, University of Gujrat

As gratefully acknowledged, this report reflects input from a variety of Government of Pakistan and United Nations agencies, as well as research and academic organizations; however, the views expressed are solely those of the individual authors.

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Principal Investigator Prof. Dr. Mohammad Nizamuddin, Vice Chancellor, University of Gujrat Authors Abdul Qadir Rafiq, Assistant Resident Representative, UNDP (Chapter 1); Dr. M. Suleman Qazi, Project Coordinator, Nutrition Wing, Ministry of Health, GoP, and former UNFPA Provincial Coordination Officer, Quetta (Chapter 2); Dr. Sara Raza Khan, UN Reform Specialist, UNFPA (Chapter 3); Salman Asif, Gender Adviser, UN Resident Coordinator’s Office and UNFPA (Chapter 4) Editor Mustafa Nazir Ahmad, Project Manager, Modern Languages and Learning Centre, University of Gujrat Editorial Team Dr. Fauzia Maqsood, Associate Director, Centre for Population Urban and Environment Studies, University of Gujrat; and Sarmad Saeedy, Senior Consultant, Press, Media and Publications, University of Gujrat Panel of Reviewers Jawed Ali Khan, Director-General, Ministry of Environment; Mian Moazzam Shah, Director-General, Ministry of Population Welfare; Shahzad Ahmad Malik, Chief (Population), Planning Commission; Dr. Aurangzeb Khan, Chief (Environment), Planning Commission; and M. Irfan Tariq, Director, Ministry of Environment Publication Coordinator Muhammad Ajmal, Assistant to UNFPA Country Representative in Pakistan

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Acknowledgements The preparation of this report owes a great deal to many individuals and organizations. We are grateful to Prof. Dr. Mohammad Nizamuddin, a distinguished academician and an eminent expert on population and development issues, for leading this intellectual enterprise as the Principal Investigator. Prof. Dr. Nizamuddin is currently the Vice Chancellor of the University of Gujrat and former Director, Asia and the Pacific Division, UNFPA, New York.

We do not have adequate words to pay thanks to the authors and researchers who volunteered their intellectual expertise in writing the various segments of this report: Mr. Abdul Qadir Rafiq, Assistant Resident Representative, UNDP; Mr. Salman Asif, Gender Adviser, UN Resident Coordinator’s Office and UNFPA; Dr. Sara Raza Khan, UN Reform Specialist, UNFPA; Dr. M. Suleman Qazi, former UNFPA Provincial Coordination Officer, Quetta; and Ms. Farida Rehmat, Young Professional Officer, UNDP.

The production of this report is highly indebted to officials of the Ministry of Environment—especially to Mr. Kamran Qureshi, Additional Secretary; Mr. Jawed Ali Khan, Director-General; Ms. Nilofur Hafeez, Deputy Secretary; and Mr. Irfan Tariq, Director—for providing their invaluable guidance and support in the development of this timely and important initiative. We are equally grateful to the Ministry of Population Welfare for its usual support to UNFPA’s interventions in Pakistan; especially our sincere thanks go to Mian Moazzam Shah, Director-General, for his contribution in this venture. We are also obliged to the Ministries of Health, Women’s Development, and Education for their cooperation and suggestions. We are equally indebted to Mr. Shahzad Ahmed Malik, Chief (Population), and Dr. Aurangzeb Khan, Chief (Environment), of the Planning Commission for rendering their invaluable guidance during the development of this report.

We are thankful to the research and editorial team of the University of Gujrat, including Dr. Fauzia Maqsood, Associate Director, Centre for Population, Urban and Environment Studies; Mr. Sarmad Saeedy, Senior Consultant, Press, Media and Publications; and Syed Hussain Sajjad Rizvi, Executive Editor, Pakistan Journal of Social Issues. We are especially thankful to Mr. Mustafa Nazir Ahmad, Project Manager, Modern Languages and Learning Centre, University of Gujrat, who conducted extensive research for and edited the report. The report also benefitted from the services of School of Art and Design at the University of Gujrat.

Several national, regional and international institutions shared their research materials for the preparation of the report. In particular, we wish to convey our sincere appreciation to the Global Change Impact Studies Centre, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Leadership for Environment and Development Pakistan, Aga Khan Development Network, Oxfam GB-Pakistan, Meteorological Department of Pakistan, Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Initiative for Rural and Sustainable Development, Rural Support Programmes Network and Climate Action Network-South Asia. There are many individuals associated with these institutions who gave a great deal of their time for preparation of this report.

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The overall coordination for preparation of the report was provided by Mr. Muhammad Ajmal, Assistant to the Country Representative, who conceived and managed the entire collaborative initiative through all the multi-faceted aspects, from administering the logistical requirements to contributing substantive contents to different parts of the publication. Without him, the report would never have been realized.

We are grateful to the Media and Communication Team at the Asia and the Pacific Regional Office in Bangkok, especially to Mr. William A. Ryan, and to our colleagues at UNFPA Headquarters, New York, especially to Mr. Richard Kollodge, for their continuous support and guidance. The entire initiative would have never been completed without the support of our colleagues at UNFPA Country Office in Pakistan. The financial support for the report was borne by UNFPA. Daniel B. Baker UNFPA Representative in Pakistan

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Foreword This year’s global State of World Population report examines how family planning, reproductive health care and gender relations could influence the future course of climate change. To further reinforce the report’s findings, this supplement on Pakistan highlights how climate change poses threats that could worsen poverty and burden the vulnerable population of Pakistan. The supplement highlights that climate change will not only endanger the lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable groups but will also exacerbate gaps between rich and poor and amplify inequities between women and men. The report focuses in particular on Pakistani women who are, as explained in the report, especially vulnerable to climate-induced calamities.

Pakistan faces multi-dimensional challenges with respect to climate change. Rapid population growth could lead the total population to double by 2050 if urgent measures are not taken. Fertility and maternal mortality rates remain the highest in the region, and some other human development indicators are also deteriorating. Economic activities in Pakistan are facing unprecedented challenges in the wake of the global economic crisis. Security constraints have become another core issue hampering the entire development process. In short, climate change can further exacerbate the daunting challenges already faced by the country.

Through developing this report, the UNFPA Pakistan Country Office has made an effort to highlight the possible threats that climate change can pose to the most vulnerable groups in Pakistan, especially women, children and elderly. The report presents how climate change may alter the roles and responsibilities of women in Pakistan—in particular women in rural areas. The report takes into consideration several examples that show how gender equality and the empowerment of women are essential components of sustainable and long-term human development. The report serves as an awareness-raising platform among the people of Pakistan to demonstrate the human face of the effects of rising sea levels, flooding, earthquakes in heavily populated areas, internal and external migration, food shortages, environmental degradation, and increased levels of green-house emissions, among many other factors.

Another key objective of the report is to engage all the stakeholders—policymakers, decision-makers, parliamentarians, civil society and media—in an ongoing debate on how to understand, slow down and mitigate the effects of climate change. The report encompasses a set of suggestions and recommendations for policy-makers to take into account as they address the implications of climate change in the formulation of future development plans.

From the onset, the process involved a series of participatory meetings and consultations in order to seek suggestions, guidance and expertise of researchers, civil society advocates, development partners and officials of the concerned government ministries and departments. This included a consultation at the UN House with all the concerned stakeholders in August 2009. Prior to this, several meetings were held with the officials of the Ministries of Environment, Population Welfare, Health, Women’s Development and Planning Commission from March 2009 to October 2009.

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The Government of Pakistan has resolved to address the issue of climate change and has already taken certain valuable and important initiatives; but, as the report shows, this will require accelerated and sustained actions in future years. Government may need to consider a comprehensive development framework to cope with the multiple challenges being posed by climate change.

The Programme of Action that was adopted at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, or ICPD, was a milestone achievement in the history of population and development. In the succeeding fifteen years, the diverse ramifications of rapid population growth have become even more manifest. Now, as this report details, the urgent issue of global climate change is shown to be partially a result of population dynamics. Population growth is an influential factor in the increase in greenhouse-gas emissions as well as constituting a constraint on the ability of countries to adapt to the multiple impacts of climate change. Pakistan, as highlighted in this report, clearly demonstrates the cause-and-effect dynamics of population growth as a case study of what the entire world faces as it struggles to cope with rapid climate change. Daniel B. Baker UNFPA Representative in Pakistan

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Abbreviations and Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank AIDS acquired immunodeficiency syndrome AJK Azad Jammu and Kashmir AKDN Aga Khan Development Network AKPBS-P Aga Khan Planning and Building Service-Pakistan AKRSP Aga Khan Rural Support Programme AR4 Fourth Assessment Report AWEPA European Parliaments for Africa BPL below poverty line CBO community-based organization CDM Clean Development Mechanism CNG compressed natural gas CO2 carbon dioxide COP15 15th Conference of the Parties CSO civil society organization DRR disaster risk reduction ENSO El Nino-Southern Oscillation FANA Federally Administered Northern Areas FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FR Frontier Region GCISC Global Change Impact Studies Centre GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GIS geographic information systems GLOF glacial lake outburst flood GoP Government of Pakistan GIS Geographic Information System HIV human immunodeficiency virus IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICPD International Conference on Population and Development IDP internally displaced person IDS Institute of Development Studies IFRCRCS International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IIED International Institute for Environment and Development IOM International Organization for Migration IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature IWMI International Water Management Institute JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LDC least developed country LEAD Leadership for Environment and Development MAF million acre feet MDG Millennium Development Goal

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MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NGO non-governmental organization NGORC NGO Resource Centre NIPS National Institute of Population Studies NSDS National Sustainable Development Strategy NWFP North West Frontier Province Pak-EPA Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency PARC Pakistan Agricultural Research Council PILDAT Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency PPM parts per million PPP public-private partnership PWP Pakistan Wetlands Programme SDPI Sustainable Development Policy Institute SME small and medium enterprise TFR total fertility rate UN United Nations UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UK United Kingdom UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UOG University of Gujrat USA United States of America WEDO Women’s Environment & Development Organization WHO World Health Organization WWF Worldwide Fund for Nature

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Contents Acknowledgements........................................................................................ 3 Foreword………………………………………………………..................... 6

Abbreviations and Acronyms…….......……….……………………………. 8

Overview A Climate Change: A Global Challenge..................................... 13 B Pakistan’s Unique Context…….......…................................... 18 C Environmental Degradation.................................................... 20 D Population Trends…………………………………………... 24

Boxes Box 1 What Makes South Asia More Vulnerable?........................... 16 Box 2 Extreme Weather Events in Pakistan...................................... 18 Figures Figure 1 Major Causes of Land Degradation in Pakistan..................... 23 Figure 2 Eroded Lands in Pakistan (1993-2003)................................... 23 Figure 3 TFR in Selected South Asian Countries (1965-2005)............ 24 Figure 4 Estimates of Pakistan’s TFR (1994-2006).............................. 24

Chapter 1 At the Brink

A Climate Change: The Science and the Impact.………….….. 29 B Global and National Inequalities in GHG Emissions..…....... 30 C National Level Environmental Impacts.................................. 31 D Pakistan’s Vulnerability Assessment.......…………………... 37 E Bearing the Brunt: Present and Future.....…………………... 40

Boxes Box 1 Inequalities in GHG Emissions............................................... 30 Box 2 What Does Pakistan Face?...................................................... 37 Box 3 Women in Coastal Areas........................................................ 41 Box 4 Glacier Melting in Gilgit-Baltistan......................................... 42 Figures Figure 1 Agro Ecological Zones of Pakistan......................................... 31 Figure 2 Sensitivity to Climate Change Impacts................................... 38 Tables Table 1 Annual Cost of Urban Air Pollution Health Impacts.............. 33 Table 2 Indoor Air Pollution................................................................ 34 Table 3 Growth of CNG Sector........................................................... 34 Table 4 Actual Surface Water Availability (in MAF)......................... 35 Table 5 Estimated Cost of Agricultural Losses................................... 46

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Chapter 2 People on the Move

A Defining Climate Migrants..................................................... 44 B Climate Change and Migration............................................... 45 C Enormity of the Problem......................................................... 47 D The Impact.............................................................................. 48 E The Gender Dimension........................................................... 49 F Environmental Degradation and Population Movement......... 53

Figures Figure 1 Possible Scenarios of Population Movement......................... 45

Chapter 3 Women’s Resilience to Climate Change

A Resilience and Vulnerability................................................... 56 B Impacts of Climate Change on Health.................................... 57 C Impacts of Water Shortage on Women................................... 60 D Climate Change and Urban Life............................................. 62 E Building Resilience at the Community Level......................... 64

Chapter 4 Mobilizing for Change

A The Current Debate................................................................. 69 B Social Movements and Partnerships....................................... 71 C Rights, Institutions and Social Change................................... 73 D Unheard Voices....................................................................... 75 E Environment, Climate Change and Women’s Rights............. 77 F CSOs and NGOs Working on Environmental Issues............. 79

Figures Figure 1 Rights, Institutions and Social Change................................... 73

The Way Forward A Climate Change: A Global Response..................................... 82 B Government of Pakistan’s Initiatives...................................... 83 C Emerging Realities.................................................................. 85 D Towards a Climate Change Strategy for Pakistan.................. 87 E Recommendations................................................................... 90

Boxes Box 1 Government of Pakistan’s Response to Climate Change....... 83

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Bibliographic References……..........………..…....……………………….... 95

Appendices Appendix 1 A Brief History of Climate Change........................................ 104 Appendix 2 Impacts of Climate Change on the MDGs.............................. 107 Appendix 3 Carbon Dioxide Emissions..................................................... 108 Appendix 4 Dominant Physical Features and Land Use............................ 109 Appendix 5 Implications of Inequality....................................................... 118 Appendix 6 Direct and Indirect Risks of Climate Change and

Potential Effects on Women................................................... 121 INSET FOR FIRST COLUMN OF CONTENTS “There are fundamental questions about how climate change will affect women, men, boys and girls differently around the world, and indeed within nations, and how individual behaviour can undermine or contribute to the global efforts to cool our warming world.” —Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, Executive Director, UNFPA

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Overview A Climate Change: A Global Challenge Climate change is the first truly global environmental challenge. It has become a serious threat to sustainable human development, especially of women, over the last two decades. Climate change affects the environment in drastic ways, such as altering entire ecosystems, and causing more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, floods, and typhoons. These environmental changes, in turn, affect many important sectors—such as agriculture, fishing and forestry—and result in outbreak of diseases in humans, animals and plants.

Climate change, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), refers to “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (for example, using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.” It implies any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

This usage, however, differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where climate change refers to “a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”

Scientific evidence suggests that the climate is changing and that human activity is exacerbating natural changes in the climate (IPCC 2001). Over the last century, the average global temperature has risen by 0.74 degrees Celsius, and it is expected to increase by another 1.8-4.0 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. However, some recent studies warn us of much worse. For example, research from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) shows that unless there is “rapid and massive action, the problem of global warming will be twice as severe as predicted six years ago and possibly much worse.”

The climate modelling exercise used in MIT research shows that if we do too little or nothing to cut our emissions, temperatures could rise to 7 degrees Celsius or more by the end of this century. But if we act “aggressively” towards a low or zero carbon global economy, the temperature rise could be managed at or below 4 degrees Celsius (Pervaiz 2009). IPCC Chairperson Dr. Rajendra Pachauri also warned recently that the average global temperature could increase by up to 6.4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

Although scientists may differ on the exact increase in the average global temperature in the coming years, evidence is fast building that impacts are being are faced in the form of melting icecaps in the polar areas, and increased variability of temperature, rainfall and storms in virtually all regions of the world, especially the poorer ones (UNEP 2009).

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Rising temperatures on both land and sea have resulted in more frequent and intense extreme weather events: floods, droughts, earthquakes, bush fires, etc; displacement and destruction of infrastructure (dams, dykes, buildings, communication systems, etc.); and increased incidence of diseases.

However, there is little doubt that the burden of projected damages will fall disproportionately on developing countries, mainly due to their over-reliance on the environment for basic survival, high population growth rate and density, low capacity to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, and high level of poverty (Mwaura-Muiru 2008). Pakistan and other South Asian countries are no exception . Past trends suggest that for every 1.0 degree Celsius rise in average global temperatures, annual average growth in poor countries drops between 2 and 3 percentage points, with no change in the growth performance of rich countries (UNDESA 2009a).

Although some natural fluctuations—such as dynamic processes of the earth and variations in sunlight intensity—also contribute to global warming, its primary cause remains human activity, resulting in increased levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Now it has been confirmed that GHG emissions from human activity cause most of the increase in global average temperatures (IPCC 2007a).

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) makes it clear that it is no longer relevant to discuss whether the climate is changing, but rather how much change we are committed to and how fast this will occur (IPCC 2007b). In addition, the IPCC emphasizes that though climate change is a long-term issue, it needs to be considered as a medium-term problem requiring short-term action.

The total cost of limiting concentrations of GHG emissions to manageable levels will be significant. Nevertheless, when compared with the anticipated economic impacts of climate change, the cost of mitigation will amount to only a fraction of the expected growth of the world economy over the coming decades. The IPCC’s AR4, however, underlines that this statement is valid only if action is taken urgently, and that the cost will increase if action is delayed (UNEP 2009).

Another study, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (Stern 2007), commissioned by the United Kingdom Treasury, provides substantive arguments as to why paying attention to climate change now makes very good economic sense. Despite the controversy over some of the assumptions made in the report, it would be irresponsible to ignore the call for urgent global action to fight climate change (Ahmed and Patel 2007). Human Activity and Climate Change Human activity is closely linked with climate change and, in turn, climate change has a direct impact on sustainable human development. Evidently, climate change is threatening the lives, livelihoods, health and overall wellbeing of especially those vulnerable populations that lack the financial, technical and institutional resources to mitigate or adapt to its adverse impacts. In particular, income levels and assets, social and educational status, rural or urban location and physical conditions, age, ethnicity, and gender determine how vulnerable people are to the adverse impacts of climate change.

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The growing rate of industrialization, burning of greater quantities of fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil) and unchecked destruction of forest cover are resulting in increased concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. As a result, the levels of GHG emissions, which have risen drastically in the last 50 years, are projected to rise another 60% by 2030 (Population Resource Center 2009).

Scientists believe that these emissions, especially that of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the combustion of oil and other fossil fuels, contribute the most to global warming and thus accelerate climate change. While the historic increase in concentrations of GHG emissions can be attributed to rising per capita emissions in the major industrialized nations, population growth has also played a key role in increasing overall emissions.

Similarly, changes in demographic trends—such as declining rates of infant and maternal mortality, shifting patterns of fertility, and increasing urbanization—can also not be ignored. Threats to the environment are thus augmented by a combination of factors, including higher fuel consumption; increased use of groundwater, fertilizers and pesticides for enhancing production; and conditions caused by unplanned urbanization, such as increase in urban slums and poor sanitation facilities. The Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Although the entire population suffers due to climate change, women, children and the elderly are most vulnerable to its adverse impacts: women are more vulnerable to climate change shocks because of socially constructed gender roles and behaviours of societies; children because of lack of financial and social support from families; and the elderly because of their dependency on others.

Gender equality and empowerment of women are essential components of sustainable human development, which is closely linked with climate change and depends heavily on adapting to its impacts. Thus, climate change also alters the roles and responsibilities of women, especially tribal and poor rural women who depend on the natural environment for their livelihoods. Moreover, the workload of women mounts with decline in crop yields and depletion of natural resources. This makes it more difficult for women to work outside their homes for specific purposes, such as carrying and purifying water and supplying food. In this context, the gender dimension of migration (discussed in detail in Chapter 2) is also significant—men are more mobile than women, thus they can leave vulnerable areas in search of employment opportunities or social adjustments. In short, climate change is also exacerbating existing gender inequalities.

South Asia is, in particular, highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change (Bhadwal and Kelkar 2007). A large number of people in the region will eventually be displaced by the rising sea levels. The drinking water for much of India and Pakistan comes from glaciers in Himalayan-Hindu Kush-Karakoram mountain ranges, which are already beginning to melt due to warmer temperatures.

Moreover, their dependence on agriculture, which is the largest source of employment for the people in the region, makes South Asian economies particularly vulnerable to climate change (Box 1). It is heartening to note that South Asian governments have finally realized the gravity of the situation and have started devising strategies to mitigate or adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.

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Box 1: What Makes South Asia More Vulnerable? Arguably, only a few regions in the world are more at risk from climate change in terms of adverse impacts on the poor than South Asia. The reasons are easy to see when one pays attention to the possible impacts of climate change identified by the Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007b). For South Asia, these could include melting glaciers in Himalayan-Hindu Kush-Karakoram mountain ranges. According to climatologist Mark New, over the last three decades, snow and ice cover may have been reduced by 30% in the eastern Himalayas. There is now a real risk that these glaciers might disappear altogether in the coming decades. The rapid melting of glaciers is initially expected to contribute to excessive water flow and flooding in the region. Eventually, the full loss of glaciers would have a severe effect on the availability of freshwater in the three mighty rivers: Brahmaputra, Ganges and Indus. These rivers, along with their tributaries, are the lifeline for an estimated 500 million people in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The associated loss of farm production, water for human needs, fisheries, river transport and livelihoods will be devastating. Water loss would also reduce the availability of power, which is already a serious development constraint in South Asia. In addition, changing climate patterns are lowering rainfall in arid and semi-arid zones, and intensifying floods in other areas. The coastal population in South Asia is already facing a serious flooding problem from rising sea levels due to climate change. According to conservative estimates, the sea level could rise to 40 centimetres higher than the present level by the end of the century and submerge a huge area of South Asia’s coastal belt. Over 70 million people living along the coastal belt will be forced to relocate. The threat is particularly serious for Bangladesh and the Maldives. Source: Ahmed and Patel 2007

Approaches to Manage Climate Change Responses to climate change have traditionally been organized around two main types of interventions (UNEP 2009): those with a focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions (‘mitigation’) and those aimed at reducing the risks of, and improving society’s resilience to, increased climate variability and long-term climatic changes (‘adaptation’). Appendix 1 traces key milestones, scientific discoveries, technical innovations and political action related to climate change during the last three centuries.

The fact remains that adapting to climate change is essential since even the most stringent mitigation efforts cannot avoid the impacts of a changing climate, especially in poorer settings (Shanahan 2009). According to IPCC Chairperson Dr. Pachauri, though most societies have a long history of adapting to the impacts of weather, climate change as we are experiencing it today poses new risks that will require additional investments in adaptive responses (Shahid 2009). Adaptation is the action of responding to the experienced or expected impacts of changing climatic conditions, to reduce them or to take advantage of new circumstances. It is not about returning to some prior state, since all social and natural systems evolve and—in some senses—co-evolve with each other over time. A decade of research on vulnerability to climate change shows that inevitably the poor suffer the most from the impacts of changing environmental conditions (Adger and Tompkins 2003).

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What emerges is the recognition that sustainable human development is central to any climate change response strategy. Building resilience, which involves enhancing the ability of a system (social and ecological) to withstand shocks and surprises and to revitalize itself if damaged, offers the prospect of a sustainable response. Some ecological systems have the natural ability to bounce back from adverse circumstances, while others have to learn how to become resilient.

Adaptive management not only pursues the goal of greater ecological stability, but also that of more flexible institutions for resource management (Holling 1978; Walters 1986). A combination of adaptive management of social and ecological systems may provide a basis on which social and ecological resilience could be built. However, adaptive approaches require flexibility within the management framework to adapt and change as new information becomes available. The ecosystem concept requires that the complexity of the ecosystem is accepted, planning takes place over the appropriate spatial and temporal scales in line with ecosystem changes, and the interactions of human behaviour with the environment are considered (Adger and Tompkins 2003).

An adaptive ecosystem management approach can improve the resilience of people and the environment, as well as reduce their vulnerability. Under this approach, an evolving management process for the entire system is developed through an iterative learning process. It is important to build resilience through the extension and consolidation of social networks, both at the local level and at national, regional and international levels. Social acceptance of any adaptation strategy is critical and such strategies need to be responsive to the changes that occur in both the environment and society.

In this regard, institutional division of response measures in ‘mitigation’ and ‘adaptation’ may not be a useful separation of issues. In fact, it may prevent emissions-reducing adaptations from taking place. Hence, management approaches need to be: ‘iterative’, to take account of new knowledge and information; ‘flexible’, to include the new knowledge as it becomes available; ‘inclusive’, to enable collective actions to feed into the decision-making process; and ‘holistic’, to take into account the whole spectrum of options that are available to individuals and communities.

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B Pakistan’s Unique Context Pakistan is among the countries that will be severely affected by the impacts of climate change even though it contributes only a fraction to global warming, IPCC Chairperson Dr. Pachauri said at the Regional Conference on Climate Change on ‘Challenges and Opportunities for South Asia’, held in Islamabad earlier in the year (Shahid 2009). It is a known fact that, unlike some of the other most populous countries, Pakistan is not a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions due to its low production capacity.

Pakistan, with the sixth largest population in the world, produces only 0.4% of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions, which means that it is 135th on the list of global GHG emitters. Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that the country contributes very little to global warming, but it still faces the challenge of climate change in almost all its manifestations. However, this does not imply that the country is using its natural resources sustainably.

Ambassador Farukh Amil, Pakistan’s Acting Permanent Representative to the United Nations, underlined this fact in his statement at the Thematic Debate of the General Assembly on ‘Addressing Climate Change: The United Nations and the World at Work’: “Climate change poses serious risks and challenges particularly to developing countries, including Pakistan, that have contributed the least to global warming and are yet likely to suffer the most” (Pakistan Permanent Mission to the United Nations 2008). Unfortunately, these risks and challenges are likely to become more serious in the coming years, especially considering the country’s high population growth rate, which is not only one of the highest in the region but also in the world.

Extreme weather patterns have been observed in the last few years with the hottest day recorded in Pakistan after 78 years on 9 June 2007 (Box 2). Due to these fluctuations in weather patterns, monsoon rains have either started coming early or are delayed. Moreover, unlike the usual pattern, the rains mostly come in the form of short heavy bursts. The melting of glaciers in Himalayan and Hindu Kush mountain ranges also causes sudden increases in the volume of rivers, resulting in flash floods even in areas not historically prone to flooding. This affects the populations not only of mountainous areas, but also of the heavily populated plains, causing massive destruction to crops as well as lives.

Box 2: Extreme Weather Events in Pakistan Last century’s worst flood in Jhelum River in 1992. Severe urban storm flooding in Lahore, due to 500 millimetres rainfall in 24

hours on 12 July 1996. History’s worst drought in Pakistan from 1998 to 2001. Severe cyclonic storm hit the coastal areas of Pakistan in 1999. 621 millimetres rainfall in Islamabad in 10 hours in July 2001. Disastrous Cyclone Yemyin hit the coastal area of Balochistan in 2007. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) hit Gilgit-Baltistan destroying many crops,

livestock, infrastructure and property in 2007 and 2008. Source: Khan 2009

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Climate change expert Matthew Savage predicts that there will be an exceptional increase in Pakistan’s average temperature in the near future, with serious and wide-ranging implications for the population. The temperature increase in the country, according to him, will be higher than the expected global average increase. Moreover, the temperature increase in the north will be higher than in the south of Pakistan. Similarly, the temperature increase in winters will be more than that in summers (Alam 2009).

Analysis of the past climatic data also shows that Pakistan’s climate is fast changing (Farooq and Khan 2004). The maximum and minimum temperatures have dropped in the country’s north eastern mountains, while they have increased in its western parts. Generally, summer (April-May) maximum temperatures have increased in all the regions, except in the coastal belt; while summer minimum temperatures have increased in the Balochistan plateau, the coastal belt, and central and south Punjab. Precipitation has increased in all the regions during the monsoon season, except in the Balochistan plateau and coastal belt, where it has decreased (Roohi 2005).

According to another estimate, there has been an increase in the temperature by 0.5-1.0 degree Celsius in Pakistan’s northern arid mountains, western dry mountains and coastal areas (Ahmad, Bari and Muhammad 2003). In the monsoonal zone, there has been either a decrease or no change in the temperature. However, there has been an increase in extreme temperatures in the arid zones comprising plains, dry mountains and coastal areas. Similarly, there has been an increase in extreme annual rainfall in hot humid, sub-humid and semi-arid zones, while there has been a decrease in cool humid and sub-humid regions, dry mountains, and coastal areas (Roohi 2005).

Climate change poses a serious threat to Pakistan’s fragile ecosystems, because it will directly add to water and food insecurity, unsustainable infrastructure, and vulnerability of the already marginalized sections of population (discussed in detail in Chapter 1). According to the Ministry of Environment (GoP 2001), climate change is likely to reduce biodiversity, and the goods and services that ecosystems supply to Pakistan, because of:

Increased desertification in arid and semi-arid zones.

Increased seawater intrusion of the Indus delta with a consequent reduction in mangrove cover and loss of sandy beaches.

Increased summer flooding in the monsoon-affected areas.

Retreat of glaciers and an upward shift in ecological zones in Himalayan-Hindu Kush-Karakoram mountain ranges.

Desiccation and die-back of forests.

Reduced agricultural production and changes in marine fisheries.

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C Environmental Degradation Environmental degradation costs Pakistan at least 6% of gross domestic product (GDP), or about 365 billion rupees per year (by now this amount must have increased by several billion rupees). Of this, inadequate water supply, sanitation and hygiene account for 112 billion rupees; agricultural soil degradation for 70 billion rupees; indoor air pollution for 67 billion rupees; urban air pollution for 65 billion rupees; lead exposure for 45 billion rupees; and rangeland degradation and deforestation for 7 billion rupees (World Bank 2006).

The appropriate use of the environment is intrinsically linked with sustainable human development. But, in Pakistan’s case, where the use of environmental resources has traditionally not been judicious, development has become even bigger a challenge due to the likelihood of adverse impacts of climate change. Already the country’s urban areas are facing challenges of congestion, deteriorating quality of air and water, and waste management; while the rural areas are facing challenges of loss of biodiversity and habitat, crop failure, land degradation, and rapid deforestation (GoP 2009a). Now there is a need to look at the major environmental challenges for Pakistan in the context of climate change: Air Pollution In Pakistan’s urban areas, the quality of air is deteriorating due to a number of reasons (discussed in detail in Chapter 1). The foremost among them is the rapidly growing population of cities as a result of increasing migration from rural areas. In 1981, of the country’s total population of 85.09 million, 61.01 million (71.70%) lived in the rural areas and 24.08 million (28.30%) in the urban areas. In 2007, this ratio changed to 65.12% and 34.88%, respectively: of the country’s total population of 159.57 million, 103.91 million lived in the rural areas and 55.66 million in the urban areas (GoP 2008a).

Even more worrisome is the fact that the population of the country’s cities continues to grow because they offer employment opportunities, amenities and facilities that are not available in the rural areas. Pakistan is already the most urbanized country in South Asia and it also has the highest urbanization rate (4.5%) in the region (World Bank 2006). Water Pollution Access to clean drinking water is an area of major concern for the people of Pakistan. Due to poor sanitation facilities, waste material often gets mixed with the underground water, a major source of drinking water. Besides improper disposal of waste material, the use of pesticides and fertilizers in the agricultural sector and chemicals in the industrial sector also contributes to water pollution in the country. In addition, sweet groundwater is also being polluted due to the increasing lateral movement of saline groundwater (PILDAT 2003).

It is important to note here that currently only 54% of the country’s population has access to sanitation facilities and 66% to clean drinking water, while the targets for 2015—as per the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)—are 90% and 93%, respectively (GoP 2007). Another dimension of the problem is that most of water pollution in Pakistan is

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associated with urban centres, whose population is growing steadily as a result of increasing adverse impacts of climate change resulting in migration. Typically, nullahs and storm water drains collect and carry untreated sewage which then flows into streams, rivers and irrigation canals, leading to widespread bacteriological and other contamination.

It has been estimated that around 2,000 million gallons of sewage is being discharged into surface water bodies every day in Pakistan. Though there are some sewerage collection systems, typically discharging to the nearest water body, collection levels are estimated to be less than 50% nationally (less than 20% in many rural areas), with only about 10% of collected sewage effectively treated (World Bank 2006).

The substandard quality of drinking water, coupled with poor sanitation facilities and practices, is associated with a host of diseases, such as diarrhoea, typhoid, intestinal worms and hepatitis. According to World Water Forum Development Executive Caitlin Oliver Malik, water pollution is responsible for 60% of infant mortality in Pakistan and is now one of the leading causes of death in the country (The News International 2005). Deforestation Deforestation was estimated several years ago to be progressing at an annual rate of 4-6%, the second highest rate in the world (Akhter 2008). A more recent and optimistic estimate puts the rate at 0.5%, but this reduced rate might be the result of lesser forest cover left to exploit. Interestingly, some statistics indicate that the forest cover in Pakistan has accelerated rapidly since 1999, with regeneration rates in excess of 5%. However, experts observe that this figure seems to be high and exceeds the regeneration rate of most indigenous forest species (World Bank 2006).

Most of the deforestation occurs in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), Gilgit-Baltistan (made the fifth province of Pakistan in September 2009; earlier known as FANA or the Northern Areas), and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). In 1850, up to a quarter of the NWFP had forest cover, which declined to a mere 5% in 1996. Therefore, it is feared that if the current rate of deforestation continues unabated, Pakistan will be forestless within a generation.

Local communities will be immediately and most severely affected by the loss of forests, because they will be deprived of their only source of fuel and heat during the punishing northern winters, as well as the major source of fodder for their livestock. As a result, they will also become more vulnerable to landslides and other natural disasters.

A prominent theory is that population pressures of the local communities themselves are the leading causes of the rapid disappearance of forests. Several recent studies, however, point out that this is unlikely: population growth has not been tremendous in the area and has been well below the national average. They suggest that it is more likely that the problem lies not with the local communities, who have after all used forests for thousands of years, but with the increased pressure to commodify forest goods for exchange-value.

This explanation begs research into institutional arrangements for the management of forests in the country. The impacts of deforestation in Pakistan cannot only be determined on the basis of local use-value, but also ‘global use-value’: the value that a large segment

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of society derives from forests, but which is not easily captured in market valuation (or exchange-value) terms (Akhter 2008). It includes services like soil conservation, regulation of stream flow, and bolstering the life of dams and irrigation systems. Threats to Flora and Fauna Pakistan has many of the world’s major climatic and vegetation zones within a relatively small area. These consist of snow fields and cold deserts in the Karakoram mountains; alpine areas of meadows, sub-alpine scrub and forests in Gilgit-Baltistan; mount temperate forests in the NWFP, AJK, the Zhob valley in Balochistan and northern Punjab; tropical deciduous forests in the foothills of Hindu Kush and Karakoram mountain ranges; dry step vegetation in the plateau and arid zones west of the Indus River; arid and semi-arid sub-tropical scrub and tropical thorn forests in the desert areas of Sindh, Balochistan and Punjab; marsh vegetation in the riverine tracks of Indus River; and littoral mangrove forests near the Indus delta and the Balochistan coastline. In addition, Pakistan possesses a variety of wetlands (United Nations 1999).

The impacts of climate change will have severe consequences for Pakistan’s biodiversity, as a number of indigenous species of plants and animals in the country will face extinction. For example, accelerated melting of glaciers in the Himalayan mountain range is threatening the natural habitat of rare species of animals like Markhor and Ibex.

Climate change is also bringing about rapid changes in weather patterns, resulting in increased droughts and floods, as well as declined supply of freshwater. For example, Blind Dolphin is threatened by extinction due to declining water levels in Indus River and Indus Dolphin is losing its habitat due to the construction of extensive irrigation system. Similarly, along Pakistan’s coastal areas, rare coral reefs that sustain hundreds of species of marine life are threatened as a direct result of increased surface temperatures. Land Degradation Of the total area of 79.6 million hectares, a major chunk of Pakistan’s land is facing environmental problems (Farooqi 2006), such as water erosion (11.0 million hectares), salinity and sodicity (6.3 million hectares), water logging (4.11 million hectares) and wind erosion (3.5 million hectares). Therefore, in effect, only one-fourth cultivated area (21.4 million hectares) supports the country’s population of over 170 million. The provincial breakdown of land degradation in Pakistan presents an interesting scenario (Figure 1): the NWFP, Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan lead in water erosion; Punjab in wind erosion; and Punjab and Sindh in salinity and sodicity.

According to experts, Pakistan is facing severe land degradation and desertification because of its high population growth rate that forces over exploitation of natural resources. This promotes, on the one hand, injudicious agricultural practices, which become a source of many environmental problems that undermine sustainability.

On the other hand, good agricultural land for crop production is shrinking due to fragmentation of land holdings. The problem is further compounded by the rapid use of productive agricultural land for residential and industrial purposes in most parts of the country (Farooqi 2006).

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Figure 1: Major Causes of Land Degradation in Pakistan

Source: GoP 2007

The mainstay of Pakistan’s economy is agriculture, which accounts for almost one-fourth of the country’s GDP and employs 44% labour force. In Pakistan, 80% of the cropped area is irrigated with canals and tube wells, while the remaining 20% is rain-fed. Though agriculture is the main income-generating activity of most people living in the country’s rural areas, it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to earn their livelihood from it, as the cultivable land is being eroded due to the adverse impacts of global warming and climate change. In particular, there has been an increasing shortage of water for irrigation purposes (discussed in detail in Chapter 1). In Pakistan’s context, Balochistan—which accounts for almost 44% of the country’s total land area, but only 5% population—and Sindh have been hit hardest by land erosion (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Eroded Lands in Pakistan (1993-2003)

Source: World Bank 2006

0

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Punjab Sindh NWFP & FATA Balochistan

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D Population Trends Pakistan is facing the twin threats of climate change and high population growth. It was among the first countries in Asia to start a family planning programme more than five decades ago, with intermittent support from international donors, especially the United Nations. Despite this long history of support, the total fertility rate (TFR) has declined very slowly in Pakistan as compared with other countries in the region (Figure 3).

Figure 3: TFR in Selected South Asian Countries (1965-2005)

Source: UNDESA 2007

According to the United Nations medium variant projection, in 1950, Pakistan had 41.18 million people and it was the world’s 13th largest country in terms of population. However, by 2005, it had become the world’s sixth most populous country with 165.816 million people (UNDESA 2009b). It is projected that Pakistan will become the world’s fourth most populous country in 2050 (after India, China and the USA), with a population of 335.20 million.

Figure 4: Estimates of Pakistan’s TFR (1994-2006) Source: NIPS and Macro International Inc. 2008

TFR

(Chi

ldre

n pe

r W

oman

)

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Pakistan’s TFR has remained persistently high over the last decade or so (Figure 4). It is now estimated to be 4.1 children per woman. The women in the urban areas have an average of 3.3 children, while the women in the rural areas of 4.5 children (NIPS and Macro International Inc. 2008). Pakistan’s TFR has remained high due to various social and cultural reasons: the security of women is associated with the number of children they have; there is a visible preference for male children; and women have no power in deciding the size of their families. Whatever the reason may be, high population growth puts an additional burden on Pakistan’s natural resources, which are already under stress due to the adverse impacts of climate change.

High population growth has a close link with climate change in a number of ways: as population increases, needs also increase. Pakistan has not only a high population growth rate, but also a very young population. These young people will soon become adults and come into the reproductive age. So, even if there is a significant decline in Pakistan’s TFR in coming years, which seems highly unlikely, it will still lag behind other countries in population control (UNDESA 2009b). For example, according to the United Nations medium variant projection, in 2050, Pakistan (335.19 million) will have a higher population than Indonesia (288.11 million); while, in 2005, Indonesia (219.21 million) had a higher population than Pakistan (165.82 million).

Various demographic factors are directly or indirectly responsible for bringing about climatic changes. It is generally argued that the population growth rate is higher in Pakistan’s rural areas than in its urban areas. Since economic activities in the rural areas are insufficient to cater to the needs of a large number of people, migration from rural to urban areas (as discussed earlier and in detail in Chapter 2) is also on the rise. This has a considerable effect on climate due to increase in vehicle use and road infrastructures, and increase in number and energy consumption of households in the urban areas. Climate Change, Women and Population Growth Women suffer more due to scarcity of resources and happen to be at higher risk in the context of climate change. Though some experts argue that slower population growth would have significant benefits in addressing the issue of climate change, this remains open to debate because other factors such as levels of industrialization and the degree to which the industry relies on fossil fuels are also involved.

Reduction in population growth is related to expanding education, especially for girls; enhancing economic opportunities for women; and raising awareness about and providing access to voluntary reproductive health and family planning services. This objective cannot be achieved without addressing the issue of gender equality. Therefore, meeting the challenges posed by climate change needs to have a gender perspective by analyzing the roles of women as consumers of resources, as well as agents of climate change.

It is worth mentioning that at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo, which was a milestone in the history of population and development, especially women’s rights, 179 countries unanimously agreed that population is not about numbers, but about people. Implicit in this rights-based approach is the idea that every person counts. The ICPD also made it clear that empowerment of

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women is not simply an end in itself, but also a step towards eradicating poverty and stabilizing population growth (UNDESA 1994).

The participating countries adopted a 20-year Programme of Action, which focused on individuals’ needs and rights, rather than on achieving demographic targets. The recommendations and commitments of the Cairo Conference were updated at the ICPD five-year review. Concrete goals include providing universal access to education; reducing infant, child and maternal mortality; and ensuring universal access by 2015 to reproductive health care, including family planning services, assisted childbirth and prevention of sexually transmitted infections, including HIV.

Improved social, economic and health status of women is the key to reduce the population growth rate. In this regard, women’s rights are viewed as a means to the end of reducing population growth, rather than as ends in and of themselves. For example, the primary empowerment strategy is to let women have greater access to education, since female literacy is often correlated with low birth rates. Education of women is also the best way to ensure that women are not married at a young age.

The other main empowerment strategy, according to the ICPD, is the provision of reproductive health services for women, which not only include family planning, but also prevention and treatment of sexually transmitted infections, maternity care, etc. Access to improved reproductive health, including voluntary family planning, can help in mitigating climate change, reducing vulnerability to its adverse impacts and fostering adaptation (UNDESA 1994).

Another important element of population stabilization is that it can enhance women’s ability to plan their families, thus empowering them to better cope with the realities of a changing climate, including migration in the face of drought, floods and other extreme weather conditions (discussed in detail in Chapter 2). The contribution of women to meeting the challenges of a changing climate is maximized when they are able to plan their pregnancies and protect themselves from possible reproductive health complications. Nexus between Population, Poverty and the Environment Population growth is commonly assumed to be directly linked with environmental degradation and depletion of natural resources under conditions of poverty. The nexus between population, poverty and the environment is a complex one; in fact, it is cyclic in nature: generally the poor have large family size and are more dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods, whether agriculture, hunting, forestry or fisheries.

Environmental degradation is more likely to affect the poor than the rich. It is argued that poverty and the environment have a two-way relationship. Environmental degradation reduces natural resources of the poor, affects their health and exacerbates their vulnerability; while poverty affects the environment by compelling the poor to exploit natural resources. Poverty levels also compel people to promote economic growth at the expense of the environment.

Poverty has enormous influence on rapid population growth. It has been mentioned earlier that the majority of the poor, especially those living in Pakistan’s rural areas, have

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to depend on natural resources. To exploit natural resources without any help from machines, they need more hands to work. As a result, they keep on increasing their family size, which further burdens the natural environment. This vicious circle of population, poverty and the environment further adds to the adverse impacts of the climate change, particularly on those who are already vulnerable.

The adverse impacts of environmental degradation are again faced largely by Pakistan’s poor. It has major implications for their health and poverty in terms of air pollution, water contamination and inadequate sanitation facilities. These implications are manifested in terms of primary environmental diseases, such as diarrhoea, hepatitis and malaria; as well as tuberculosis and other chronic respiratory diseases to which environmental degradation contributes significantly.

Similarly, due to certain compulsions, Pakistan’s poor are severely affected by desertification, floods, storms and harvest failures. They live nearest to factories, busy roads and dangerous waste dumps. The loss of biodiversity is yet another threat to the country’s poor rural communities. Environmental degradation will only make them more vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. In short, environmental sustainability and security will ultimately depend to a significant degree on the interactions between three factors: population, development and the environment.

In 1992, the Rio Earth Summit urged the international community to focus on the critical linkages between the environment and development. Agenda 21, the principal agreement of the Summit, provided a framework for sustainable development that called for tackling poverty, development and the environment as one, by focusing on people, resources and productivity. It called for the integration of the environment, development and population in order to fulfil basic needs, improve living standard for all, and better manage and protect ecosystems. Importantly, differences in perceptions regarding the linkages between population and the environment became prominent during the Rio Earth Summit. Many environmentalists believe that population growth is a major cause of global environmental degradation, while many feminists argue that population growth by itself may not be a significant contributor to global environmental problems (Sen 1994). A leading feminist author agrees that population growth is only one of the multiple and complex factors that have resulted in environmental degradation (Germain 1995). In short, high population growth may contribute to climate change and environmental degradation, but it cannot be termed the only factor. In this context, climate change presents humankind with a historic opportunity to make development more sustainable. It affords an opportunity for developing renewable energy for growth, providing the vulnerable with resources for building adaptive capacity and reducing the risk of disaster. The responses to climate change provide an opportunity to address the inherent inequality in the climate process, and to create equity within nations and between generations. Climate Change, Population and Health The relationship between population and climate change is complex, also because the former contributes both to the causes and effects of the latter. One of the most adverse impacts of climate change relates to people’s health. With climate change, frequency of heat waves and extreme weather events are affecting the quality of life and health of

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people, particularly of the elderly and poor. Moreover, the risk of drought and flooding, food and water-borne infectious diseases is on the rise.

These changes have both direct and indirect effects on the health of a country’s population (discussed in detail in Chapter 3). Direct effects occur when weather associated with a changing climate produces health effects, such as heat-related mortality and morbidity resulting from increased temperatures. Other direct health effects include those caused by extreme temperatures, particularly in the urban areas that suffer from the ‘heat island’ effect. Extreme temperatures pose a greater risk to certain populations, such as the elderly, young children, the poor and the people with health conditions such as heart problems or asthma.

Indirect health effects include higher average temperatures and rain patterns that could prolong disease transmission seasons in locations where diseases already exist, as well as introduce diseases in previously untouched areas. Warmer temperatures could increase the reaction of chemicals that produces ground level ozone, the main component in smog, which is harmful to human health (Markham 2008). Similarly, increased average temperatures could prolong the pollen season or result in greater pollen production, which in turn exacerbates symptoms of allergy sufferers.

Climate change may also result in increased incidence of infectious diseases, including various vector and water-borne diseases. For example, changes in the temperature and surface water affect the lifecycle of mosquitoes. As a result, diseases such as malaria and dengue fever may spread in places where adequate sewerage facilities do not exist (Ayles and Sharma 2001). Although climate change affects everyone, its impacts will be distributed unevenly among different regions, generations, age classes, income groups, occupations and genders (IPCC 2001). In all likelihood, the poor (of which almost 70% are women), primarily but by no means exclusively, in developing countries will be disproportionately affected (Drexhage 2006).

Chapter 1 discusses how increasing environmental degradation makes Pakistan more vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. While Chapter 2 focuses on population migration due to alarming changes in climatic patterns and its gender dimension, Chapter 3 highlights women’s vulnerability and resilience to climate change. Chapter 4 details the efforts by various stakeholders to bring about positive environmental and societal changes. The report concludes with concrete, actionable recommendations in line with the Government of Pakistan’s vision and policy, to promote research and development on the issue.

It is important to mention here that though the State of World Population 2009 report focuses on climate change issues, the Pakistan Supplement also covers environmental issues. The reason for also addressing environmental issues in some sections of the report, especially in Chapter 1, is that the linkages between climate change and environmental degradation could not be disentangled in the context of Pakistan given the current state of research on the issue.

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Chapter 1: At the Brink A Climate Change: The Science and the Impact The Earth is warming and human activity—rather than just natural variations—is largely responsible for it (IPCC 2007a). Moreover, the Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007b) provides a comprehensive analysis of how climate change is affecting natural and human systems. The findings underscore the fact that climate change is a key development concern. Sadly, the people most at risk from its adverse impacts live in countries that have contributed the least to the atmospheric build up of CO2 and other greenhouse gases responsible for the warming of the planet. Moreover, those most affected are also least prepared to meet the challenges posed by climate change, thus making it an issue of inequality as well.

Humans have traditionally adapted to changes in the environment, including climate change and climate variability, by realigning means of living and livelihoods as ‘coping strategies’. However, such changes were largely evolutionary and required gradual adaptation. Consequently, social systems were able to draw upon their intrinsic resilience and allow for changes in environmental conditions.

However, climate change, as we understand it today, represents new challenges: the changes are rapid, more intense and frequent, thus posing higher and more complex risks to the quality of life, particularly of the poorest. The faster the rate of climate change, the greater will be its adverse impacts. Potential changes in the frequency, intensity, duration and persistency of climate extremes (such as heat waves, heavy precipitation, glacial melt and drought), and in climate variability, would result in increased vulnerability of the poor. Moreover, some of the adverse impacts of climate change may become apparent in due course of time and several of them may be irreversible.

Projected climatic changes in the current century will force larger segments of population into poverty. The adverse impacts will be particularly severe for developing countries because of their geographic and climatic conditions, dependence on natural resources, and lack of capacity to adapt to a changing climate.

The changes to which developing countries will have to adapt include an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe weather, droughts and natural disasters, higher temperatures, and rising sea levels. These changes will increase the vulnerability of the poorest to natural disasters, pose a threat to food and water security, adversely affect human health, accelerate ecosystem destruction, and jeopardize livelihoods. Appendix 2 discusses the likely impacts of climate change on the MDGs in detail.

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B Global and National Inequalities in GHG Emissions

For global carbon accounting purposes, the world has become a single country. The Earth’s atmosphere is a common resource without borders. GHG emissions mix freely in the atmosphere over time and space. It makes no difference for climate change whether carbon dioxide comes from a coal-fired power plant, from a car, or from a loss of carbon sinks in natural forests. Similarly, when greenhouse gases enter the Earth’s atmosphere they are not segmented by country of origin: a ton of CO2 from Pakistan is the same weight as a ton of CO2 from the USA!

While each ton of CO2 carries equal weight, the global account masks large variations in contributions to overall emissions. All activities, all countries and all people imprint their contribution on the global carbon account, but some register a far deeper imprint than others (UNDP 2007). The measure of this imprint is ‘carbon footprint’, defined as the releases of CO2 metric tons per capita. Appendix 3 and Box 1 show the variation between various countries and regions in terms of their contribution to CO2 emissions.

Box 1: Inequalities in GHG Emissions The United Kingdom (having a population of 60 million) emits more CO2 than

Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam together (having a total population of 472 million).

The state of Texas (having a population of 23 million) in the USA has a deeper ‘carbon footprint’ than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa (having a total population of 720 million).

The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper ‘carbon footprint’ than the 766 million people living in the 50 least developed countries.

If every person living in the developing world would have the same ‘carbon footprint’ as an average person in the USA or Canada, we would need the equivalent to nine planets to absorb the CO2 emissions.

Source: UNDP 2007

Currently, about half of the world’s CO2 emissions come from developed countries, where 20% of the global population is responsible for about 80% of overall economic output. The remaining half comes from developing countries, which account for the majority (80%) of the global population but generate only 20% of gross world product. Emissions of carbon dioxide far exceed the Earth’s absorptive capacity, which is estimated at about 5 billion metric tons of CO2 per year (UNDESA 2009c).

A similar pattern of unequal ‘carbon footprint’ becomes evident if we compare the individuals or population groups within a country. In Pakistan’s case, the people at the lowest rung of the development ladder have the lowest ‘carbon footprint’. A male member of a middle class family has a ‘carbon footprint’ 3.5 times higher than his wife. Similarly, a well-to-do urban household has a ‘carbon footprint’ 14 times higher than a poor household living in a slum, and a woman in Islamabad has a ‘carbon footprint’ 16 times higher than a woman in a rural area.

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C National Level Environmental Impacts Pakistan is a geographically diverse country with a number of significant ecological features. It has a variety of mountains, deserts, riverines, wetlands and coasts that support distinct and diverse biological communities (Figure 1). The wellbeing, security and prosperity of current and future generations depend ultimately on these land, water and air resources, and on ensuring that they are used sustainably.

Figure 1: Agro Ecological Zones of Pakistan

Source: PARC 2007

An important factor in this equation is a history of unsustainable use of natural resources in most parts of the country that has made Pakistan’s environment particularly fragile, posing additional challenges for those seeking to use them sustainably. Especially in the key sectors of agriculture, energy and water, there are marked limitations to the types and extent of resource uses that can be accommodated without causing long-lasting damage.

However, despite the commitment and efforts to meet the challenges posed by climate change, there are very few areas in which even marginal improvement in environmental quality has been achieved. For all the main resources of land, water and air, as well as in terms of biodiversity, the indicators of environmental quality show negative trends. The result is a continuing decline in the ‘environmental standard of living’ for Pakistanis in both urban and rural areas (LEAD Pakistan 2008).

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In Pakistan, environmental degradation and erosion of the natural resource base, on which all economic activities ultimately depend, have reached a point where economic growth itself has become difficult. The hard fact is that increasing air and water pollution, land degradation, and loss of biodiversity are imposing additional costs on agricultural and industrial sectors.

However, an even more immediate and profound concern is that environmental degradation affects the poorest sections of society the most. In short, the people who are already vulnerable cannot escape exposure to deteriorating environmental conditions. Therefore, more and more Pakistanis are being deprived of secure access to productive land, shelter, food, and clean water and air. In particular, these basic necessities are becoming increasingly unavailable to most urban and rural poor, refugees, and internally displaced persons (IDPs). Even within these communities, women, children, the elderly and the disabled bear the brunt of the environmental impacts. An overview of the key environmental challenges faced by Pakistan, which in turn accelerate climate change, is presented in the following:

The per capita water availability has been decreasing at an alarming rate. In 1951, the per capita water availability was 5,300 cubic metres. It has now decreased to 1,105 cubic metres, touching the water scarcity level of 1,000 cubic metres.

Almost all freshwater resources have been severely polluted due to the discharge of untreated industrial and municipal wastes. Moreover, pollution of coastal waters due to waste discharges and oil spills, coupled with reduced freshwater flows, has resulted in declining fish yields.

Only 55% of population has access to relatively safe drinking water sources. Potable water quality, assessed against World Health Organization (WHO) standards, fails to meet any of the specified criteria, confirming evidence of extremely high pollutant loads.

Only 35% of population has access to adequate sanitation facilities.

Of about 54,850 metric tons of solid waste generated daily in the urban areas, less than 60% is collected. No city has a proper waste collection and disposal system.

The deforestation rate is estimated to be 0.2-0.5% per year. Forest cover, which was 4.8% of the country’s total land area in 1992, has not increased substantially despite efforts by the government and other stakeholders.

Degradation of natural forests, rangelands, and freshwater and marine ecosystems are resulting in loss of biodiversity. At least four mammal species (Indian one-horned rhinoceros, lion, swamp deer and tiger) are known to have become extinct, while at least 10 ecosystems are considered to be critically threatened.

Desertification affects over 43 million hectares of land annually. Air Pollution Urban air pollution remains one of the most serious environmental problems in Pakistan’s cities. A substantial body of research concludes that high concentrations of suspended particulates adversely affect human health, provoking a wide range of respiratory and

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heart diseases. The most hazardous are fine particulates of 10 microns in diameter or smaller. In urban Pakistan, as elsewhere, the major sources of fine particulate pollution are vehicles, combustion of fossil fuels in factories, power plants, burning of solid waste, brick kilns and natural dust (Farooqi 2006).

In the six major cities of Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta and Rawalpindi, ambient concentrations of suspended particulates lie consistently above WHO guidelines and are on average two to four times the recommended levels (World Bank 2006). However, another study, conducted by the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) with the assistance of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), paints a different picture: the average suspended particulates in Pakistani cities are 6.4 times the WHO recommended levels and 3.8 times the Japanese standards (Farooqi 2006). An exposure-response relationship exists between concentrations of suspended particulates and health outcomes. The annual health cost of ambient particulate urban air pollution (Table 1) was estimated to be 62-65 billion rupees in 2006 (by now this amount must have increased by several billion rupees).

Table 1: Annual Cost of Urban Air Pollution Health Impacts Health End-points Total Cases Total Cost (Billion Rs.) Premature mortality (adults) 21,791 58-61 Mortality (children under 5) 658 0.83 Chronic bronchitis 7,825 0.06 Hospital admissions 81,312 0.28 Emergency room/Outpatient hospital visits 1,595,080 0.80 Restricted activity days 81,541,893 2.06 Lower respiratory illness (children) 4,924,148 0.84 Respiratory symptoms 706,808,732 0 TOTAL 62-65 Source: World Bank 2006

On the other hand, the rural areas have their own health concerns with regard to the quality of air. The major concern in these areas is indoor air pollution caused by the burning of fuel-wood and biomass, to meet the day-to-day energy needs for cooking and heating. These sources of energy are not only polluting air, but are also posing a serious risk to the health of women who are mostly involved in such activities. Likewise, the children looked after by these women are also at high risk (Table 2). The annual cost of indoor air pollution for Pakistan was estimated to be 60.09-74.34 billion rupees in 2006 (by now this amount must have increased by several billion rupees).

The population growth is putting an additional burden on the available resources in Pakistan’s urban areas. For example, a mushroom growth of slums is taking place in the absence of proper residential facilities for a growing population. Moreover, a large number of small industries have been set up in residential areas to cater to the employment needs of the existing and new population. As a result, a clear demarcation of residential and commercial areas is not being taken into consideration in the urban planning process.

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Table 2: Indoor Air Pollution

Number of Cases Per Year Annual Cost (Billion Rs.)

Low High Low High Acute respiratory illness Children (under 5): increased mortality 21,933 31,060 27.83 39.40

Children (under 5): increased morbidity 29,508,800 41,788,200 4.36 6.03

Women (over 30): increased morbidity 10,754,600 15,229,800 2.04 2.89

Acute obstructive pulmonary disease Women: increased mortality 7,408 11,433 25.84 25.84 Women: increased morbidity 21,850 33,721 0.12 0.18 TOTAL 60.09 74.34 Source: World Bank 2006

The number of vehicles in the country has more than doubled in less than a decade, from 3.408 million in 1997-98 to 8.680 million in 2007-08 (GoP 2008b). In particular, the number of privately-owned vehicles has increased in the last few years, in the absence of a proper public transport system. In addition, over the last decade, the number of diesel trucks in major cities has increased substantially, creating an additional source of air pollution. The smoke emitted by these vehicles and the poisonous waste material of unplanned industries are among the major causes of air pollution in Pakistan’s big cities (Farooqi 2006).

Table 3: Growth of CNG Sector Date CNG Stations Converted Vehicles December 1999 62 60,000 December 2000 150 120,000 December 2001 218 210,000 December 2002 360 330,000 December 2003 475 450,000 December 2004 633 660,000 December 2005 835 1,050,000 December 2006 1,190 1,300,000 May 2007 1,450 1,400,000 February 2008 2,063 1,700,000 April 2009 2,760 >2,000,000 Source: GoP 2009a High content of lead in petrol is another serious problem. However, due to an unprecedented hike in petroleum prices, the use of compressed natural gas (CNG)-converted vehicles is on a constant rise in Pakistan. The sector has seen such a

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monumental growth (Table 3) since its introduction as a fuel in Pakistan, in 1992, that now the country has the world’s highest number of vehicles running on CNG. According to the International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles, the country also has the world’s highest number of CNG refuelling stations. Pakistan overtook Brazil in 2006 and Argentina in 2008 to become the world’s largest consumer of CNG in vehicles (Mughal 2009). This augurs well for cleaner environment in the country. Water Shortage and Agriculture The depletion and vulnerability of natural resources is of extreme importance for Pakistan, mainly because of the country’s huge population and its economic dependence on primary natural resources. In particular, the country’s agrarian economy is heavily dependent on river water from melting glaciers. Because global warming accelerates the melting of glaciers, this will eventually result in the shortage of water for irrigation purposes. Considering its huge population, Pakistan’s natural resources will not be sufficient to meet the needs of future generations if their consumption continues at the current pace.

The excessive use of water in household activities—mainly in major urban centres—and water loss associated with conveyance, poor storage and distribution arrangements threatens the country’s water resources. Therefore, it can safely be assumed that Pakistan is facing a serious water shortage problem, and is fast moving from being a water-stressed to a water-scarce country.

Land with low productive potential in Pakistan includes arid and semi-arid zones with unreliable rainfall; areas with steep slopes, shallow depth and sandy texture; and areas with very low temperatures. These areas are victims of severe environmental degradation because people here generally have small land holdings. Farming has thus become a part-time job in most of these areas. As discussed earlier, low income from agriculture and unemployment in the rural areas is also forcing people to move from villages to cities, putting more pressure on the scarce urban resources.

Table 4: Actual Surface Water Availability (in MAF) Period Kharif Rabi Total Percentage Increase/Decrease Average system usage 67.1 36.4 103.5 2002-2003 62.8 25.0 87.8 -15.2 2003-2004 65.9 31.5 97.4 -5.9 2004-2005 59.1 23.1 82.2 -20.6 2005-2006 70.8 30.1 100.9 2.5 2006-2007 63.1 31.2 94.3 -8.9 2007-2008 70.8 27.9 98.7 -4.6 2008-2009 66.9 24.9 91.8 -11.3 Source: GoP 2009a

Pakistan’s agriculture is suffering from acute shortage of irrigation water is evident from the fact that the availability of actual surface water has seen a decrease in six of the last

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seven years (Table 4). In this scenario, the future agricultural requirements of the country’s growing population can only be met by both extending millions of hectares unutilized cultivable land, through increased surface irrigation water storage capacity, and intensifying cultivation. Furthermore, only 75% of Pakistan’s crop water requirements are currently being met using irrigation. So, there is an urgent need to increase the supply of irrigation water and improve overall water-use efficiency, including delivery efficiency of canals that is currently only 35-40%.

In addition, inequalities in water distribution within systems also need to be addressed, because farms in tail reaches often receive less water per hectare than those in head and middle reaches. Other problems concerning irrigation systems include centralized bureaucracies, lack of accountability and transparency, lack of information-sharing, inadequate maintenance of infrastructure, and insufficient implementation of operational procedures.

Discussing the adverse impacts of climate change for Pakistan in the future, climate change expert Matthew Savage says there are chances of decline in irrigated wheat yield in Pakistan’s semi-arid areas in the range of 9-30% for a temperature increase of 1.0-4.0 degrees Celsius (Alam 2009). He further says climate change is expected to result in changes in land and water resources that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. The total average cost of agricultural losses in Pakistan is estimated to be 74.2 billion rupees (Table 5).

Table 5: Estimated Cost of Agricultural Losses

Total Loss (Billion Rs.)

Low Mean High Salinity 30.0 55.0 80.0 Soil Erosion 15.0 15.0 15.0 Rangeland Degradation 3.6 4.2 5.4 Total Loss 48.6 74.2 100.4 Source: World Bank 2006

Due to high population growth rate, Pakistan is facing severe shortage of food items and the country spends around $1 billion annually on their import (Ahmad 2005). Climate change will further aggravate this problem, because irrigated agriculture in semi-arid and arid zones is already suffering due to extremely high temperatures. Pakistan’s agricultural productivity is also being negatively affected by the changes in land and water regimes. These changes affect bio-physical relationships by altering growing periods of crops, scheduling of cropping seasons and soil characteristics; and by increasing crop stresses, irrigation water requirements, and the risk of pests and diseases.

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D Pakistan’s Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability (discussed in detail in Chapter 3) is “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.” Thus, vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity (Fussel and Klein 2006).

Terms like ‘system’, ‘sensitivity’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ are part of climate change vocabulary related to natural systems, but they also cover non-climatic—demographic, economic, political and technological—factors. The vulnerability assessments at sectoral, regional and community levels become the basis to identify the segment of society that is most sensitive to climate change. Before going into such an assessment, it is important to understand the natural systems in the context of Pakistan and then overlay non-climatic factors to assess vulnerability at various levels (Box 2).

Box 2: What Does Pakistan Face? Risks to the key sectors of agriculture, energy and water. Increased variability of the monsoons due to El Nino-Southern Oscillation

(ENSO), a periodic change in the atmosphere of the tropical Pacific region, events.

Increased risks of floods, droughts, typhoons and tropical storms, forest fires, etc.

Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid zones. More rapid melting of glaciers in Himalayan-Hindu Kush-Karakoram mountain

ranges due to increased temperature and seasonal variability. Reduction in the capacity of natural resources due to rise in snowline on

mountains. Reduction in both warm and cold water fish due to oxygen depletion.

Source: Khan 2009

Pakistan’s natural systems cover nine major ecological zones, with the main ecological determinants being arid and semi-arid conditions that prevail over most of the Indus plains and Balochistan plateau. Humid conditions exist over hills and mountains in the north. The arid and semi-arid areas are mostly bare of vegetation, while mangrove forests have emerged at riverbanks and deltas. On humid hills and mountains, there are pine and coniferous forests that change with altitude. For example, dry sub-tropical forests dominate up to an altitude of 1,000 meters above sea level. Historically, the most significant types of land use and food production have been irrigated agriculture and pastoral farming. In some semi-arid areas, they have also been combined with dry farming. The relationship between different dominant ecological features and human population determines the land use. The climatic vulnerability of the human population and coping strategies have to be aligned with ecological factors to ensure that short, medium and long-term risks are fully accounted for in a vulnerability assessment. For a country as diverse as Pakistan, a ‘north-to-south’ approach is useful for flagging climatic risks and identifying population that is exposed to them.

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Appendix 4 shows district-wise categorization of dominant physical features and land use in Pakistan. Based on the recent climatic disasters and general classification of the whole of Pakistan and AJK, 41% of the total area is extremely fragile and sensitive to climatic change, 39% fragile and 20% moderately fragile (Figure 2). The population in extremely fragile areas is 9% of the total, while 35% and 56% lives in fragile and moderately fragile areas, respectively.

Figure 2: Sensitivity to Climate Change Impacts

Source: Prepared by author of the chapter

In the last two decades, Pakistan has experienced different types of climatic events that have flagged the following risks in short to medium-term (20 to 30 years) timeframe:

Changes in precipitation patterns.

Cold waves.

Cyclones.

Degradation of grazing land.

Droughts.

Floods and flash floods.

Glacial melt and glacial lake outburst flood (GLOFs).

Heat waves.

Pests and vector diseases.

Shifting growing seasons of crops.

Snow storms.

Water shortage. The associated risks in long-term (beyond 30 years) timeframe are:

0

20

40

60

80

100

Extremely Fragile

Fragile Moderately Fragile

%

SENSITIVITY

Area (Percentage of Pakistan and AJK)

Population (Percentage) in different areas of sensitivity categories

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Acute water shortage.

Desertification.

Outbreak of human and livestock diseases.

Retreat of glaciers.

Major loss of marine fisheries and coral bleaching.

Rise in sea level. None of the areas of Pakistan are prepared for the abovementioned climatic risks. The magnitude and extent of these shocks may vary and the resilience of the ecological features, as well as the local populations, will depend on their intensity. The most fragile ecological zones are the high mountains and coastal areas. This can be verified by the fact that three districts of Gilgit-Baltistan, one district of the NWFP, and six coastal districts of Balochistan and Sindh have been hit by GLOFs and cyclones in the last three years.

The impact of these events was instantaneous and at least 25% people of the affected areas lost their livelihoods. The surveys after one to two years of similar disasters in other developing countries indicate that poor rural households lose 30-40% of their income from crop production, poverty increases by 8% and poor households lose up to 15-20% of their productive assets (UNDP 2007). There has been little research on post-climatic disasters in Pakistan, but short to medium-term damages are expected to be in the same range if not more.

The other areas of Pakistan that are extremely fragile, and have experienced the worst climatic crises such as prolonged drought, are the arid planes and mountains of Balochistan. The areas hit by drought between 1997 and 2001 were largely underdeveloped, with most of the migratory population dependent on livestock. The immediate impacts were loss of livestock and decline in agricultural produce, particularly from orchards. The prices of surviving livestock also decreased due to loss of grazing land and push for quick sale to avoid further damages.

The drought period also saw, for the first time, conflicts between migratory and sedentary populations as the area got deprived of its natural resources. The recent events in Pakistan indicate that populations living in extremely fragile areas have the least capacity to cope with climatic disasters and are thus most vulnerable to associated risks. Therefore, in order to help the people living in these areas, it is important to have local coping strategies and response mechanisms.

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E Bearing the Brunt: Present and Future In developing countries, about 5% of the total population is exposed to climatic risks. According to Human Development Report 2007/2008, in the period 2000-2004, on average annual basis one in 19 people living in developing countries was affected by climate-related disasters (UNDP 2007). Of Pakistan’s estimated population of 164 million in 2007, 8.63 million people are at the risk of being directly impacted by climate change. It is further estimated that more than 10% of Pakistan’s population will be exposed to the adverse impacts of climate change by 2050 (Appendix 4).

Applying the population sex ratio (males per 100 females) may be misleading for a country’s climate change risk and vulnerability assessment. For example, Pakistan’s population sex ratio was 106.1 in 2005 (UNDESA 2009b). Applying this ratio in the context of exposure to climatic risks will conclude that more men are vulnerable than women in Pakistan; while in reality, climate change-induced disasters may impact more women than men. According to the risk and vulnerability assessment of different regions of Pakistan, of the 8.63 million people exposed to the adverse impacts of climate change, 5.75 million are women. Moreover, the number of women exposed to climatic risks is estimated to increase to 20.5 million by 2050, while that of men to 10.2 million (Appendix 4).

This shows that women draw the shortest straw of all when it comes to the ramifications of climate change. They are at a disadvantage because of limited access to resources, limited rights, lack of access to information and limited voice in decision-making. Though these disadvantages can not be generalized, the fact is that climate change will magnify the gender inequalities that exist in most of the developing world. Appendix 5 shows the effects of climate change on the MDGs with specific reference to women.

Because women use and manage natural resources differently than men, and the degradation of natural resources affects them differently, women’s disadvantages may increase with the change in or loss of natural resources associated with climate change. For example, rural women are the principal contributors of basic foods, and the agricultural sector is highly susceptible to risks of drought and uncertain precipitation. This means that climate change may endanger food security as well as women’s wellbeing and capacity to survive. Similarly, during the drought period, women and young girls have to spend more time and energy to bring water, as Appendix 6 shows.

Gender equality and focusing on women’s issues can lead to better and long lasting solutions to the challenges posed by climate change. By meeting women’s needs—including provision of adequate reproductive-health and family planning services—we can improve the health and wellbeing of women and their families, increase resilience in the face of climate change, and slow down population growth that is associated with rising greenhouse gas emissions.

Case studies of those sections of the Pakistani society that are considered to be most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change have been given in the following: Agricultural Communities

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For most developing countries such as Pakistan, agriculture and the agro-industry are the mainstays of economy. Women are mainly responsible for the cultivation and production of agricultural crops (they make up 68% of the population active in agriculture). Already, women have to contend with environmental stress such as cultivating arid land, especially in drought-stricken areas. The adverse impacts of climate change will exacerbate this situation. It is estimated that almost half of the rural women in Pakistan, actively involved in agriculture and its allied fields in rain-fed and irrigated areas, are routinely exposed to floods and water stress. Rural women’s work ranges from crop production to harvesting operations, from livestock rearing to raising babies. In addition to their daily work routine, consisting of cooking, cleaning and other domestic chores, rural women are also involved in all aspects of the agricultural sector. Coastal Communities The problem of rising sea levels is crucial for Pakistan, especially in terms of the coastal areas in Sindh and Balochistan. These areas are inhabited by a significant percentage of human population whose main sustenance comes from its natural habitat. Considering the importance of the fishing industry for the coastal communities of Pakistan, the adverse impacts of climate change could give rise to loss of livelihoods, especially in the case of women (Box 3). They may be unable to adapt to the vagaries of weather and their efforts aimed at remunerative activities could be severely disrupted. Natural catastrophes, such as floods or cyclones, could also result in severe infrastructural damages along the coastline, as well as in large-scale population displacement.

Box 3: Women in Coastal Areas In Pakistan’s coastal areas, women now have to work much harder to make ends meet. Since the quality of water has deteriorated over the years, women have to walk up to five kilometres that takes them an average of four hours, leaving them little free time. Now that the fish catch has reduced and the communities cannot practice supplementary agriculture, women have to clean and dry some of the fish for storage purpose for leaner days as an adaptation strategy. This also takes up a considerable proportion of their time. One of the reasons cited by women for reduced activity in this area was the non-availability of good markets for selling their handiwork. They get one tenth, if not much less, the price that is charged in the shops in big cities. The entire community agreed that 20 to 30 years ago women had more time available after all their chores to do their handiwork. Now, they neither have time nor the peace of mind to do needle work, an activity that they used to do together on a regular basis. They no longer have the additional income stream that could be used in times of need. Source: Oxfam GB-Pakistan

Mountain Communities The population dynamics in the mountain areas of AJK and parts of Gilgit-Baltistan and the NWFP indicate that the earning men from the family usually work in down country, leaving behind women, the elderly and children. In such situations, women act as the head of the family and undertake all the chores from housekeeping to agriculture and rearing of domestic animals. Therefore, in the event of any climatic disaster, women of

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these areas are the ones who are hit the most. The rising glacier melting in Gilgit-Baltistan and the resulting loss of land due to floods and mudslides will take years to recover (Box 4). Women who were dependent on these lands cannot resettle over a short time. Many of them hit physically by previous floods were not taken for medical treatment and ended up in agony for life. The women in other more conservative mountain communities are totally at the mercy of men. Generally, men have better access to information and they survive floods, landslides, mudslides and snow storms because they can swim, climb trees and move to safer places. In comparison, disasters are spontaneous for most women. Many of the casualties in such events are because of their lack of ability to take a decision to flee or stay.

Box 4: Glacier Melting in Gilgit-Baltistan Due to increased melting of the Ghulkin glacier, avalanches hit the valley at least four times in the first six months of 2008, causing serious damage to the infrastructure and property. The village elders believe that with the passage of time the frequency of such events has increased. The first event occurred in the Ghulkin village on 21 May, and damaged the infrastructre and property. Another flood hit Karakoram Highway and the Chutghosth setllement on 25 May, causing huge losses to potatoe and wheat crops. The latest such event occured on 14 June, again causing serious damage to the infrastructure and property. Source: UNDP-Pakistan

Pastoral Communities In Pakistan, droughts hit the pastoral communities the most. Though these communities have traditionally been sharing grazing lands with local populations, in the event of a drought their rights to access the same are challenged. The pastoral communities are allowed to camp in wastelands that are mostly low-lying areas; after heavy rains, they are the first ones to be hit by floods. The pastoral communities migrate along different routes that cover AJK, Gilgit-Baltistan, the NWFP, Balochistan, and parts of Punjab and Sindh. They mostly move in areas that are categorized as extremely fragile. Hence, they are most vulnerable to climatic risks, both in short and long-term. The women of pastoral communities are quite sturdy, but still their capacity to survive a flood or a drought cycle is extremely low as compared with that of men. Urban Poor As discussed in the ‘Overview’ section, Pakistan is the most urbanized country in South Asia. In 1998, only seven cities of the country had a population of more than 1 million each. This number is expected to go up to 37 in 2050. By all accounts, the urban poor are one of the most vulnerable segments of the population in Pakistan. Lack of basic services, high population density and unemployment increase their vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change. The situation gets worse due to lack of adequate infrastructure to absorb extreme weather events. No big city in Pakistan has a proper storm water drainage system to evacuate rain water from the low-lying areas, which are generally taken over by low-income neighbourhoods. In the event of heavy rains, extensive damage occurs to the life and property in these areas. The women in katchi abadis (slums) are

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directly affected by extreme weather events. They usually work as maids in rich neighbourhoods of big cities. In the event of heavy rains, their mobility gets restricted and consequently results in loss of work. The adverse impacts of climate change in terms of health also affect women more than men. Men usually get preference over women in health treatment, thus the latter have to suffer longer than the former due to lack of medication. Wetland Communities Pakistan has a wide range of wetlands, starting from high alpine lakes to Indus River and coastal mangrove and marshes. These wetlands play an important role in the lives of local communities. Fishing communities along the Manchar Lake have been dependent on their wetlands resources for centuries. As a result of local pollution and incidents of floods or droughts, these communities have been marginalized to the extent of losing their livelihoods. Women of these communities depend on fish catch and local handicrafts. However, whenever a flood strikes these areas, they are the first ones to bear the brunt. The men can go to nearby cities or towns for work, but the women have to wait for the situation to improve before they can resume their work. The women of wetland communities also work in the local fish processing industry, but are paid only one-third of their male counterparts.

This chapter has explored how the adverse impacts of climate change will be particularly severe for developing countries, which contribute very little to global greenhouse gas emissions, and for the marginalized sections of population within these countries. An attempt has been made to drive home the point that the poor, especially women, are most vulnerable to climatic risks. In order to reinforce this finding, a climate change risk and vulnerability assessment has been conducted by UNDP-Pakistan (2007) that shows that more women than men are exposed to climatic risks in Pakistan. Furthermore, some of the major environmental threats to the country have been discussed in order to identify the sections of population that are most vulnerable to them. Once again, it is important to mention that the linkages between climate change and environmental degradation could not be disentangled in the context of Pakistan given the current state of research on the issue.

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Chapter 2: People on the Move A Defining Climate Migrants Anke Strauss of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) defines ‘environmental migrants’ as “persons or groups of persons who, because of sudden or progressive changes in the environment affecting adversely their livelihoods, have to move from their habitual homes to temporary or durable new homes, either within their country or abroad” (Ferris 2007). ‘Environmental migrants’ may also be defined as people who are obliged to leave their traditional or established homelands due to environmental problems (deforestation, desertification, floods, droughts, sea level rise, etc.), on a permanent or semi-permanent basis, with little or no hope of ever returning.

In this context, the term ‘climate migrants’ may be considered as a sub-category of ‘environmental migrants’: it implies displacement caused by climate change-induced environmental disasters. Such disasters are an evidence of human-induced ecological change and disruption to Earth’s climate system, primarily through greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007a).

However, it is important that one does not confuse ‘environmental migrants’ with ‘environmental refugees’. In fact, reservations have been expressed over the use of the term ‘environmental refugees’ because it has no basis in international law and it distorts the picture of environmentally-induced migration. In addition, the term has the potential to detract focus from those people protected under the 1951 Geneva Convention of the United Nations (Black 2001; Piguet 2008). The Geneva Convention defines a ‘refugee’ as “a person who is outside his/her country of nationality or habitual residence; has a well-founded fear of persecution because of his/her race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion; and is unable or unwilling to avail himself/herself of the protection of that country, or to return there, for fear of persecution” (UNHCR 2007).

In short, the term ‘environmental refugees’ has generated a whole new debate in political, development and academic circles—mainly because it tends to create a separate category of refugees, as opposed to political and economic migrants. Therefore, the term ‘environmental migrants’ has been used in this report instead of ‘environmental refugees’ when referring to the people who have been forced to dislocate due to some sudden or progressive changes in the environment. Similarly, the term ‘climate migrants’ has been used instead of ‘climate refugees’ when referring to the people who have been forced to dislocate due to some climate change-induced environmental disaster.

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B Climate Change and Migration There can be at least five possible scenarios of population movement associated with climate change (Figure 1). The movement can occur across national or international geographic and/or administrative boundaries. When climate change is human-induced, people may shift from the affected area to a geographical territory perceived as safe (Scenario ‘a’); however, this has adverse effects on the host community. When the affected people cross international boundaries, they are termed ‘migrants’; but when their movement is within a national boundary, they are called ‘IDPs’. There can be movement of whole families and groups of people as a result of the adverse impacts of climate change, manifesting themselves in the form of environmental problems at the local level (Scenario ‘b’). In certain local socioeconomic contexts, the family can split; some of the family members migrate for work, while others stay back (Scenario ‘c’). In the aftermath of a disaster, the affected families can also leave their native areas on a temporary basis and then return after the situation improves (Scenario ‘d’). The movement of people can follow a seasonal pattern as well (Scenario ‘e’). The seasonal migrants have a deeper imprint of their presence on their temporary settlements.

Figure 1: Possible Scenarios of Population Movement

Source: Prepared by author of the chapter

In Pakistan’s big cities, rural to urban migration, and the resultant land conversion for residential and commercial facilities, has triggered an entire set of unique land use patterns called ‘sprawl’. This expansive development generally occurs around cities and town centres, and in the adjoining neighbourhoods. This type of development has spurred many activities that are linked with global warming. Some major examples include increase in per capita vehicle use and miles travelled, because of the large area that needs to be covered due to sprawling communities; relatively high energy use and fossil fuel burning, because of the increased use of vehicles and from more houses, to maintain heat and cool; and high level of traffic congestion adding to air pollution.

Another key factor associated with dense population and climate change is the increased ‘heat island’ effect. In the urban areas, this effect is an outcome of several factors, including displacement of trees and vegetation whose shade and evaporation rates have natural cooling abilities; the trapping of heat between congested, tall buildings and

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narrow streets that reduce air flow; and the addition of waste heat from vehicles, factories, and air conditioners into the surrounding air. The elevated temperatures have increased peak energy demand for air conditioning. In cities, the use of air conditioners has dramatically increased, which, in turn, has caused more burning of fossil fuels that contribute to climate change.

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C Enormity of the Problem Climate change can be associated with rapid and incremental changes, resulting in a growing number of ‘climate migrants’ around the world. Identifying the areas that are most likely to encounter human displacement requires a thorough assessment of geographical vulnerability to climate change, as well as of social, economic and political structures. Declaring a group of people as ‘environmental migrants’ is a complicated and often controversial issue, because of the conceptual differences on causation (the immediate and underlying causes of migration), the size of the population directly or indirectly affected and the geographical zones concerned.

Migration is a multi-causal phenomenon and its different causes cannot be isolated from each other. Predicting the number of migrants is also difficult not only because of lack of baseline data, uncertainty of population growth and quantity of emissions, but also because of the fact that “the ability to migrate is a function of mobility and resources (both financial and social). In other words, the people most vulnerable to climate change are not necessarily the ones most likely to migrate” (UNDP 2007).

Experts estimate that by the end of this century, the number of ‘environmental migrants’ will reach 150 million (Myers 2005). Others fear that by 2050 climate change and environmental degradation could push well over 200 million people to migrate (Stern 2007). According to the World Disasters Report 2001, more people are now forced to leave their homes because of environmental disasters than war. The report also puts the number of ‘environmental migrants’ at about 25 million (IFRCRCS 2001). Similarly, a global comparative field study reveals that environmentally-induced migration and human displacement currently affect at least 24 million people (Warner 2009).

Estimates of the likely number of climate change/environmental migrants are made through mapping of likely impacts, though this exercise does not help much in understanding how migration might be sensitive to these impacts. As opposed to economic, social or political factors, the extent to which climate change will act as a predominant factor in influencing human migration is not clear. Without a proper method of classification, there is no way to track the number of affected people.

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D The Impact The physical attributes of climate change have socioeconomic and in turn possible security consequences that will present new challenges to governments trying to maintain domestic stability (Abbott 2008). Forced migration hinders development in four ways: 1) by increasing pressure on urban infrastructure and services; 2) by undermining economic growth; 3) by increasing the risk of conflict; and 4) by resulting in worse health, educational and social indicators among migrants themselves (Brown 2007).

Climate change is expected to adversely affect developing countries, especially by increasing poverty and hindering their growth towards achieving the MDGs. The scale of migration, both internal and cross-border, is also expected to rise, with unprecedented impacts on lives and livelihoods. Therefore, huge financial resources would be required to help people in the affected areas to adapt to changes in their environment.

Migration in response to climate change has proved to be both ‘successful adaptation’ and ‘adaptation failure’. As concerns ‘successful adaptation’, research has documented improvements in living conditions through migration. Adaptation to worsening environmental conditions can be made possible through improved financial or livelihood security, such as remittances from rural-to-urban migrants. Families, especially those whose livelihoods depend heavily on the environment, send their members to urban areas to earn a living. These migrants send remittances to help support family members who are still living in rural areas. Steady remittance income is a way to balance variations in environmental cycles that affect agriculture and other sources of livelihood.

As concerns ‘adaptation failure’, households with fewer assets and lesser capacity to meet environmental challenges may have to accept worsening standards of living if they cannot access financial support or afford to migrate. It fact, environmental challenges can contribute to complex social and political pressures that fuel conflict and drive migration.

A recent United Nations report indicates that already climate change has not only resulted in displacement and migration of people, but it could also uproot millions more in the future and that displacement will increase “unless vulnerable populations, especially the poorest, are assisted in building climate-resilient livelihoods” (Warner 2009).

Of the more than 2,000 migrants from various parts of the world to the USA who were recently interviewed, the majority submitted that the environment had influenced their decision on where and how to live. This shows that, above all, the need for viable livelihoods and safety forces people to leave their homes. In coming decades, human migration and displacement could reach a scope and scale that vastly exceed anything that has occurred before, resulting in a massive humanitarian crisis.

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E The Gender Dimension Although climate change affects whole population, it is not a gender-neutral phenomenon. A lot of evidence is available to prove that in terms of ‘adaptability’, ‘vulnerability’ and ‘mitigation’, men and women take climate change impacts differently (Zahur 2008). Like men, women also serve both as a contributor to and a victim of these changes. The temporary or permanent displacement of population as a consequence of climate change has specific implications for both genders. Women can be positive agents of change and contributors to livelihood adaptation strategies.

Changing climate and failure of traditional coping mechanisms may force people to sell off their assets and move. If there is exclusive male migration, women will have to assume responsibilities traditionally associated with men also, though they might not have the same access to various financial, technical and social resources as men. Moreover, since women are responsible for family cohesion, they are unable to leave for paid employment and are, hence, particularly vulnerable to economic and social risks. If a woman migrates, she is denied of her human and labour rights, she is paid less than her male counterparts for the same work and she has to face sexual violence.

As family heads, men have the responsibility to take care of all socioeconomic and financial matters. In the aftermath of a natural disaster, they have their own vulnerabilities. In case a man becomes unemployed, the whole family is affected. He is then compelled to migrate to seek income sources and some woman in the family has to face the additional burden of income generation, besides fetching water and food from far distances.

The women left behind by male migrants experience more autonomy and exercise greater decision-making power. However, this apparently improved status in fact increases their burden of responsibilities. Male migrants send remittances that can financially empower the women back home. But at the same time, as a result of disasters, the women running small businesses lose permanent buyers of their products. Sometimes, they take loans for resuming normal life, but subsequently they have to put in extra work hours to ensure repayment.

Disasters can be approached in many ways, and men and women devise different strategies to cope with them. In fact, there is a significant difference in the way men and women tackle disasters, especially in terms of adopting remedial measures. On account of differences in the distribution and variability of labour among them, men and women possess different sensibilities, behaviours and qualities.

However, the vital role played by women in mitigating the situations arising out of disasters is generally ignored, though at the domestic/local level their services and expertise play an important role. Therefore, it should be recognized that women are not only helpless victims, but they also possess capabilities, skills, tolerance and appropriate knowledge to combat disasters (Ariyabandu 1999). In fact, women make preparations to prevent against disasters, save lives in difficult situations and restore the systems of earnings after disasters are over.

The climate change debate strongly advocates the due role of women in developing strategies for mitigating or adapting to its adverse effects (discussed in detail in Chapters

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3 and 4). Since roles and responsibilities of men and women are different in every society, their contribution and adaptation to climate change also varies. Women are more severely affected by climate change and natural disasters because of their low social, cultural and economic status.

A study of disasters in 141 countries provides decisive evidence that gender differences in deaths from natural disasters are directly linked with women’s economic and social rights. In inequitable societies, women are more vulnerable to disasters: for example, boys are likely to receive preferential treatment in rescue efforts, and both women and girls suffer more from shortages of food and economic resources in the aftermath of disasters (Neumayer and Pluemper 2007).

Although there is paucity of data regarding gender roles in addressing the issue of climate change in Pakistan, it is now recognized that women have an important role in meeting the challenges posed by climate change. Before discussing what role women can play in mitigating or adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change, it is important to have an understanding of how women are vulnerable and what adverse effects are they facing.

In Pakistan, women are responsible for taking care of all household activities, ranging from collection of fuel-wood for cooking to feeding. At the same time, they are also involved in paid or unpaid labour, thus making a contribution to family sources and playing a significant role in combating poverty. If they do not get cash in lieu of their service while working on family fields, they do save the money that otherwise would go to hired labour.

Climate change puts an additional burden on women by increasing the volume of their responsibilities in many ways. In some areas, climate change generates resource shortages and unreliable job markets, which result in increased migration of male members of the family. As a consequence, more women are left behind with additional agricultural and household duties. In particular, poor women bear a disproportionate burden of the adverse impacts of climate change.

In Pakistan, women help men on land and in taking care of livestock, thus any negative change in natural resources is most likely to affect them. The exhaustion of natural resources and decline in agricultural productivity, for instance, increases the time that has to be devoted to growing and harvesting plants and crops. Women’s marginalized status and dependence on natural resources makes them particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, as a result of which their domestic burdens are increased, including additional chores like fetching water, or collecting fuel and fodder.

Poor women’s lack of access to and control over natural resources, technologies and credit mean that they have fewer resources to cope with seasonal and episodic weather and natural disasters. Consequently, traditional roles are reinforced, girls’ education suffers and women’s ability to diversify their livelihoods (and, therefore, their capacity to access income-generating jobs) is diminished. Climate Change and Gender-specific Health Hazards Climate change causes additional stress on human health. Women are particularly affected because of their socially ascribed roles, resulting from entrenched feudal-

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patriarchal discrimination against them. As a result of their physical vulnerability and role in caring for families, women have to face serious health hazards. Unfortunately, females, particularly girls, are also discriminated against in allocation of food within the house. As a consequence of this discrimination, their immune systems are weakened and they become especially vulnerable.

Especially in Pakistan’s rural areas, where health services are inadequate, women are more liable to suffer from climatic calamities. Their limited adaptive capacities arise from prevailing social inequalities and ascribed social and economic roles manifesting in differences in property rights, access to information, lack of employment and unequal access to resources. Furthermore, changes in the climate usually impact areas that are traditionally associated with women, such as paddy cultivation, cotton and tea plantation, and fishing. This means increased health and nutritional concerns for women.

As stated earlier, climate change does not affect women and men in the same way, and it has a gender-differentiated impact. Therefore, all aspects related to climate change (mitigation, adaptation, policy development and decision-making) must include a gender perspective. However, women are not just helpless victims; their leadership is critical to meet the challenges posed by climate change and they can become powerful agents of change (discussed in detail in Chapter 3). Women as Active Agents of Climate Change Women are viewed as consumers of natural resources and thus as primary victims of climate change. These perceptions many a time ignore women’s contribution to the sustainability of their households. Women invariably are responsible, particularly in rural areas of developing countries, for responding to the needs of care seekers in the family, nursing children and the elderly, sick and disabled. Women’s position in the household magnifies their duties. In meeting their responsibilities, they manage to accumulate and distribute resources according to the needs of the family.

In the process, they are trained as good managers who know how to save resources for rainy days. At the same time, they develop capacity for exploring alternative resources that can be used in the time of need. But, unfortunately, women are underrepresented in decision-making processes at all levels: within households, families and communities. This impedes their ability to contribute to climate change perspective by sharing their experiences, despite the fact that they have a strong body of knowledge and expertise that can be used in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Women’s productive and reproductive roles have a profound impact on their relationships with their family and children. Their concern for the wellbeing of their families represents a serious commitment to resist any negative development that threatens the future of their children. This strong feeling of commitment can and should be translated into tangibles effort to manage environmental degradation and climate change.

Women can also be critical agents in mitigating and adapting to climate change. Their responsibilities in households and communities position them well to develop strategies for adapting to changing environmental realities. They can play an essential role in the climate change negotiation process, as well as in the development of sustainable and

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ecologically sound consumption and production patterns and approaches to natural resource management.

Climate protection needs women’s expertise, their perspective, their political support and their engagement as key agents of change (Nampinga 2008). Empowering women with education about the environment, and giving them the skills to diversify their livelihoods in an environmentally conscious way, can lead to significant success in managing climate change.

For instance, diversification of women’s income resources and reduction in wood cutting will mitigate the future threat of intensified climate change and weather-related hazards, such as flooding, landslides, drought and desertification. In addition, initiatives involving women—such as those aimed at increased tree plantation and use of more efficient stoves—can contribute significantly to climate change mitigation through better management of resources.

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F Environmental Degradation and Population Movement Pakistan has faced a number of natural and man-made disasters in the recent past. The spells of drought in Balochistan and Sindh (1997-2001), earthquake in AJK and the NWFP (2006), floods in Balochistan (2007), earthquake in Balochistan (2008), and the military operation in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and NWFP (2009)—the last resulted in the largest known human migration ever, involving more than 3 million people—are some of the major examples in this regard. Some important case studies of population migration due to extreme weather events in the last few years have been presented in the following. In particular, an attempt has been made to highlight the impacts on women. Drought in Balochistan During the drought that lasted for almost five years (from 1997 to 2001), 80% of Balochistan’s area (23 of the province’s 26 districts) was affected and 84% of the population was declared calamity-hit. In this situation, for want of a better option, many men migrated for work. In the absence of male family members, the responsibilities of women left behind increased manifold.

They found it increasingly difficult to take care of the children, because they were now overburdened with various chores that were earlier performed by the men. Still, they had no say in the decision-making. Because of prevailing cultural norms, being a woman was also a barrier in accessing relief services. In addition, there was an acute shortage of female-specific health services.

On the other hand, the migrant males had to face problems of their own: for example, their wages were governed by the supply-and-demand rule; they had to live in poor conditions; etc. Another significant change was observed regarding schooling of children. The parents, who were unable to pay for the education of their children, took them out of schools and admitted them in madrassas (seminaries). The women who migrated along with male members of their families had to face a different set of challenges: for instance, living in an alien environment resulted in increased psychological pressures on them. Moreover, they had to face sexual harassment while fetching water and doing other chores. The life in refugee camps also imposed inhuman and gender-insensitive conditions on them (Zahur 2009).

Many drought-hit families of the Batozai area migrated to Qila Saifullah District. It is no secret that some of the poor parents had to sell their daughters for a few bags of flour, to ensure the family’s survival. Similarly, some families from the Kakar Khurasan and Qamar Din Karez areas migrated to Nasai, Qila Saifullah District, where drinking water was available. To wash clothes, the women of these migrant families gathered and hired a truck every Friday to pay a joint visit to a tube well about 20 kilometres away in the Kan Mehterzai area. Movement of Residents of Coastal Areas of Sindh (Suburbs of Karachi) The construction of mega irrigation infrastructures upstream and declining rainfalls have led to drastic reduction in waters from Indus River. The declining flows of freshwater in

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the Indus delta have resulted not only in massive degradation of land, agriculture, forestry and other natural resources, but also buffering of the highly saline water in the deltaic area by freshwater of Indus River. The inland intrusion, encroachment and erosion of creeks and fertile land by the seawater have damaged the livelihood base for the local communities, particularly in Badin and Thatta Districts of Sindh. As the sea intrusion extends, the drinkable water is lost and the residents are left with no option but to migrate.

Among the fishing communities of coastal areas, women have always been involved in post-harvest activities, such as drying and cleaning fish. The women have also been working in fishmeal plants, producing fishmeal or powder sold to poultry farms. They have been involved in processing crabs for export as well.

However, jobs of the local women in fish-processing factories and fish-cleaning sheds have been taken over by the arrival of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and Burma (now Myanmar). Desperate for work, the immigrants are willing to work for even half the wage and outside the terms of formal employment. Illegal immigrants who have settled along the coastal areas of Karachi have thus affected the earnings of the women of local fishing communities (Shah 2002). Floods in Jhang District (Punjab) In Jhang District, people adopt various preventive measures against floods. For example, the men take the cattle to far flung areas where fodder is available. During this period, the women look after other family members, besides making arrangements for saving whatever little they can from the ravages of flood. In addition, they procure seeds for the next crop. After the flood recedes, the men return and start the reconstruction work, while women look after agriculture and the cattle.

However, the latter also help in the reconstruction of damaged houses. In fact, it is a tradition that Pakistani women fully participate in the reconstruction process after disasters. After the flood, the affected area experiences an acute shortage of edibles, because the agricultural land is covered with water. In this situation, the women and girls get lesser food than their male counterparts. Therefore, they are more prone to various illnesses and diseases (Hameed 2000). Flood in Balochistan The July 2007 flood wrought unprecedented havoc on many of Balochistan’s districts. In Kharan District, a 45-year old woman lost her three male relatives to flood, which swept away everything from houses to livestock. A number of individuals exploited non-governmental organizations (NGOs) on her behalf and took away relief goods because she was unable to speak for herself.

In the rain-fed areas, the coping strategies at the household level included selling livestock and its products, trees and other household items to meet the demands of daily life. Some of the displaced families also took loans at high interest rates to support their daily living. The poverty-stricken masses had to change their dietary habits too, shifting from three meals to two meals a day (Akhtar and Qureshi 2003).

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Drought in Tharparkar (Sindh) Disasters have a severe effect on division of labour and time, as well as on gender relations. When water sources dried up during the 1997-2001 drought cycle in Tharparkar, the men started shouldering the responsibility of bringing water for the cattle with the women. However, in some parts of Tharparkar, as soon as the effects of drought became eminent, the men migrated to towns and cities located near barrages, while the women stayed behind to take care of remaining family members. The migrating men mostly left the boys behind so that they could continue their education. On the contrary, for security reasons, the girls were not left behind (Ariyabandu and Wickramasinghe 2003). Bengali Migrants (Sindh) Bangladeshi fishing communities settled in Sindh migrated from sea intrusion-affected areas of Bangladesh. Evidence shows that environmental factors, in one way or the other, contributed to their migration from Bangladesh to Pakistan. The arrival of Bengali migrants burdened the economy and natural resource base of the coastal belt. It also resulted in a competition between the natives and the migrants over economic and natural resources with a potential for conflict.

The case studies referred above are but few of the many instances where extreme weather events made it inevitable for communities to leave their homes for relatively safer destinations. Five possible scenarios of population movement associated with climate change have been presented in evidence of the fact that such a change is likely to result in rural-to-urban or rural-to-rural migration. However, in absence of sufficient scientific data, it has been deemed premature to determine the extent to which climate change will act as a predominant factor in influencing human migration. After discussing the enormity and impact of the problem of climate change-induced population migration, the chapter has also focused on its gender dimension. Finally, some important case studies of population migration due to extreme weather events in the last few years have been presented, highlighting the adverse impacts particularly on women.

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Chapter 3: Women’s Resilience to Climate Change A Resilience and Vulnerability Resilience means the capacity of a system to withstand and overcome shocks, and rebuild itself in response to change, even if unanticipated. Resilience is also the capacity of a system to absorb shocks while undergoing change and still retain essentially the same function, structure and identity. Climate change resilience is the capacity of an individual, a community or an institution to dynamically and effectively respond to shifting climatic conditions while continuing to function at an acceptable level. In other words, it is the ability to survive and recover from the effects of climate change. It includes the ability to understand potential impacts and take appropriate action before, during and after a particular climatic disaster to minimize the adverse effects and maintain the ability to respond to changing conditions.

Historically, the term ‘adaptation’ has been used to describe the individual actions required to respond to climate change. The Fourth Assessment Report defines adaptation as an “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, an adjustment that moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2007c).

The term ‘resilience’, on the other hand, refers to “the capacity over time of a system, an organization, a community or an individual to create, alter and implement multiple adaptive actions” (Rockfeller Foundation 2009). Therefore, ‘resilience’ is a more accurate, positive and comprehensive term than ‘adaptation’, describing the dynamic and systemic transformation that is needed to respond to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those which are difficult to predict.

As discussed in preceding chapters, one of the ironic features of climate change is that even though it has been caused largely by greenhouse gas emissions by the industrialized countries, its most severe impacts will be felt in developing countries. Within the developing world, climate change will affect the poorest communities the most; and within those communities, it will hit hardest the most vulnerable—women, children and the elderly.

Vulnerability, which can be defined simply as the probability of falling below poverty line (BPL), due to climate change can be observed at different levels in Pakistan. At the first level, there is general vulnerability of a given population (both men and women) related to its living in a particular climatic or geographic zone: for example, areas prone to flooding, drought, water shortage, etc. At the second level, there is vulnerability within groups. Certain groups are more vulnerable than others, based on their physiological needs (as men or women) or their role in society (for example, excluded groups).

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B Impacts of Climate Change on Health Gender-based social exclusion is a norm in the country and it results in multi-faceted vulnerabilities, including poverty, lack of access to social services and information, and lack of ability to exercise rights in political and social domains. In particular, health-related vulnerabilities are very common in Pakistan.

A healthy population helps divert resources consumed by healthcare to other productive purposes. It has been observed that high birth rate raises maternal and child mortality. Air and water pollution, unsafe water disposal, land degradation and exposure to agro-industrial chemicals are among the other leading causes of maternal and child mortality in developing countries. Direct Impacts on Women’s Health Changes in climate and our immediate environment have direct and sometimes instant effects on health, especially of women and children, as explained in the following:

Thermal Extremes Men and women differ in their response to extreme heat. Women sweat less, have a higher metabolic rate and have thicker subcutaneous fat that prevents them from cooling themselves as efficiently as men. Therefore, women are less able to tolerate heat stress. For example, in August 2003, a heat wave struck France killing 14,802 people in all age groups; however, the female mortality was 15-20% higher than male mortality (Duncan 2007). Heat waves occur regularly in Pakistan, but the lack of data makes it difficult to make a similar comparison.

Fortunately, heat-related health complications can be reduced through behavioural adaptations, such as increasing fluid intake, avoiding being under direct sun in the hottest hours of the day or establishing local mechanisms to send out district-wide heat or cold wave warning. With the existing means of communication, many of the health problems related to extreme temperatures can now be avoided if dealt at the local government or community level (for example, by lady health workers or clerics of local mosques).

In an increasingly warmer world, heat waves are expected to become more frequent and severe. Women, the elderly, the poor and those living in urban slums or in top floors of residential apartment buildings in crowded big cities are most vulnerable to them. Urban areas will be more affected by rising global temperatures than rural areas, because solar radiation is absorbed by concrete urban surfaces (walls, roofs, pavements, etc.) and transformed into heat. Because urban surfaces trap more heat than gardens, forests and fields, urban areas have higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas.

Although even slums in big cities of Pakistan have access to electricity, the power cuts are greater in less affluent neighbourhoods than in posh localities. Until the late 1990s, power cuts used to take place during summers only (because of the increased electricity used by fans and air conditioners), but the country has since been facing severe power shortages in winters too. This has not only caused huge economic losses to both large and home-based industries, but has also resulted in greater heat-related health problems during summers, with hospitals full of people suffering from various ailments.

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Nutritional Health In Pakistan, women produce 70-80% of household food, which may be undermined either directly because of climate change or indirectly because of plant and animal losses in regions vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, in case of food insecurity, women are likely to experience a greater decline in nutritional health than men, because they are often the first to go hungry in an attempt to protect their families. The high food inflation in Pakistan has already made it difficult for many households to make ends meet. Reduction in agricultural yield, as is being feared for both wheat and rice, would mean a further increase in the prices of food items, which will then be available to only those who can pay for them.

In the rural areas, goods are sometimes exchanged without resorting to the use of cash. Some families have already reported having less food items to exchange with other commodities, again as a result of lower crop yield; hence they have to pay in cash to procure necessary items and that often results in debt accumulation. This has a direct effect on the nutritional health of the entire family, but women, particularly pregnant or lactating women, are affected more severely.

Respiratory Health Climate change is likely to increase acid precipitation, particulates and smog. The WHO estimates that globally 4.6 million people die each year from causes that can be directly attributed to air pollution. Many of these deaths are caused by indoor air pollution or the fine particulate pollution from vehicles in urban areas. Health impacts of air pollution range from milder or more common events (respiratory disorder, acute bronchitis, pneumonia, asthma, throat irritation, etc.) to more severe, uncommon events (lung cancer, pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases, etc.) and even death.

A study conducted in New Zealand concludes that the average annual (1996-1999) number of people estimated to die from air pollution is approximately twice the number of people dying annually from motor vehicle accidents. The study provides additional evidence that long-term exposure to poor air quality, even at levels below current standards, is a hazard to public health (Scoggins et al. 2003).

As discussed in preceding chapters, Pakistan is the most urbanized country in South Asia. It is projected that by 2030, half of the country’s population will be living in cities. In Pakistan’s urban areas, the major sources of fine particulate pollution are smoke emitted from vehicles, and combustion of fossil fuels in factories and power plants. The problem is augmented by an ageing fleet of vehicles in poor mechanical conditions and low levels of fuel efficiency. In addition, the number of diesel trucks in major cities has increased manifold in the last few years (World Bank 2006).

Indoor air pollution is another major cause of respiratory illnesses among women and children living in slums, because they are most likely to be exposed to poorly-ventilated cooking areas. Yet indoor air pollution is hardly discussed outside of public health circles. Therefore, it remains silent but deadly, because lack of awareness remains one of the primary obstacles to wider implementation of existing health interventions by the government and civil society organizations (CSOs).

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In most of Pakistan’s rural areas, as well as slums in the urban areas, people use biomass fuels such as wood, dung and coal for cooking and heating—the major causes of indoor air pollution. Indoor smoke contains a range of hazardous pollutants, such as small particles and carbon monoxide, and their levels may be 20 times higher than the globally accepted standards. In Pakistan, CSOs have piloted biogas plants in several rural locations (detailed case study in Section E of this chapter). The initiative has been appreciated by the beneficiary communities and needs to be replicated in other areas to have a wider impact.

Vector-borne Diseases Malaria, cholera, dengue fever, hepatitis and a number of other vector-borne diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity. They are known to thrive in warmer climates. Malaria is particularly sensitive to the temperature; weather and precipitation determine the presence or absence of mosquito-breeding sites. It is feared that the epidemic potential of malaria will increase by 12-27% and that of dengue fever by 31-47% due to rising global temperatures (Focks, Jetten and Martens 1997). In 2006, Pakistan suffered its worst outbreak of dengue fever, resulting in 52 deaths. The following year, 22 people died of it. However, in 2008, the number of fatal victims of dengue fever dropped to only five. Between October 2006 and January 2008, there were 3,242 laboratory-confirmed cases of dengue fever. While much lesser cases of dengue fever have been reported this year, the government would have to keep working hard in collaboration with other stakeholders to keep the epidemic at bay.

In recent years, the Pakistani media’s reporting of dengue fever has to some extent overshadowed malaria, though all models used in the country predict an increase in the transmission of malaria because of a warmer climate. Pregnant women are more susceptible to malaria on account of their reduced immunity to infections. Maternal malaria increases the risk of spontaneous abortion, premature delivery, stillbirth and low birth weight, which is a leading cause of child mortality.

This means that climate change will have direct negative impacts on the poor’s budget. Either because of exposure to urban pollution, heatstroke or cholera, the poor will have to spend more on their healthcare. In addition, climate change will also increase the prevalence of various diseases among livestock, which will again have an impact on food security. This demonstrates that sometimes very obvious but fragile links exist between various facets of the same problem and press home the fact that climate change cannot be tackled only by the government; it needs a broader, multi-sectoral partnership.

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C Impacts of Water Shortage on Women Pakistan is largely arid and uniquely disadvantaged by its dependence on a single river—the Indus—for surface water. The country is thus more vulnerable to basin degradation and water pollution than its neighbours. It is now universally acknowledged that water is going to be a key commodity in future, both in terms of quantity and allocation, and lack of it a major obstacle to improved health standards.

In the water-scarce areas of Pakistan, people are increasingly being deprived of a precious natural resource. This also causes ‘water conflicts’ within the community, and affects the dynamics of social relations, work patterns, health status and the environment in general. In the context of Pakistan, patriarchal values determine the social position of women and restrict them to traditional roles, though they have the responsibility of supplying and managing water in their homes (Khoso, Nizamani and Rauf 1998).

The finite nature of freshwater calls for the need to examine the issue in the context of population growth and climatic changes. The soil, topography and climate in Pakistan are generally suitable for round-the-year agriculture. The country’s major agricultural areas lie within the basin formed by Indus River and its tributaries, namely Chenab, Jhelum, Kabul, Ravi and Sutlej. Therefore, many parts of Pakistan, especially in Balochistan and Sindh, have limited water availability for agricultural purposes.

In all probability, agricultural water consumption will continue to dominate overall water requirements of Pakistan. Agriculture accounts for 21% of the country’s GDP and 80% of its exports, and employs 54% of its labour force. The sector not only ensures food security, but also provides raw material for the industry. However, a high population growth is resulting in increased water stress in Pakistan.

Moreover, the incidence of rainfall is highly variable in Pakistan, ranging from less than a few millimetres in some parts of the country to more than 500 millimetres in others. Most of the rains occur during the monsoons and the water is not available for agricultural use later because of rapid runoff. In this scenario, agricultural production in Pakistan has largely been dependent on groundwater over the last two decades. Pakistan’s demand of water for domestic and industrial use is 3,032 million gallons per day, while the water available for this purpose is 2,369 million gallons per day (Bhatti 1999). This means that there is a net deficiency of 22% of total water.

Another significant cause of projected decline of water resources is the rapid retreat of the Himalayan glaciers as a result of precipitation and rising temperatures. In the short-run, the accelerated glacier melting is expected to increase water flows into river systems and cause greater incidents of flooding from glacial lakes. But as the glaciers recede, so will the river water, resulting in the long-run in severe water shortages. Drinking Water According to Pakistan’s National Drinking Water Policy, 65% of the country’s population has access to safe drinking water (GoP 2007). However, huge disparities exist in drinking water coverage between urban and rural areas, as well as between provinces and regions. The Policy aims at improving the quality of life by reducing incidence of death and illness caused by water-borne diseases. It also aims to improve water supply to

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un-served and under-served areas, both urban and rural, including slums, disadvantaged areas, brackish water zones and those areas where there is shortage of sweet water in the underground aquifers.

The urban centres that depend on surface water for their drinking water needs include, among others, Hyderabad, Islamabad and Karachi. Almost all major cities of Pakistan that depend on surface water supplies are facing an acute shortage, though the situation in Lahore and Peshawar is slightly better due to the presence of a high-yielding aquifer. The rural areas mostly depend on groundwater for domestic water supplies; however, where it is unavailable, canal water is used to meet domestic needs. It is important to mention here that irrigated areas are witnessing a continuous increase in brackish water.

In a study conducted in three villages of rural Sindh (Ali Mohammad Parhiyar, Khakoo Machi and Hamid Mir Bahar), women reported that “fetching water was an additional responsibility that we were not prepared for” (Khoso, Nizamani and Rauf 1998). These women have to carry water twice a day, which takes up to two to three hours. The distance from which they have to fetch water varies from two to 10 kilometres. Mostly middle-aged women are responsible for bringing water. If young girls are assigned to fetch water, they are accompanied by older married women. Though male family members also share the responsibility of fetching water, they never carry pots like the women and instead use donkeys or camels. Agriculture and Livestock Women in the rural areas of most South Asian countries share at least half of the workload in the sectors of agriculture, horticulture and livestock. Pakistan’s agricultural yield has increased by three times over the last six decades, but this increase is insufficient to cater to a population that has grown a little over five times during the same period.

Although the link between population growth and agricultural yield of a country is easy to understand, it has to be translated into tangible interventions for farmers (both men and women) to enable them to increase their per acre yield and grow crops that are more resistant to climatic changes.

Livestock rearing is another important component of women’s life in Pakistan’s rural areas. It is an additional asset for women who have no access to the markets. In addition, it requires no technology. In the developed world, grazing has become institutionalized and reserved areas are designated for the purpose in consultation with the community, and sometimes by the community itself. However, this is not yet the case in South Asia.

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D Climate Change and Urban Life The 21st century is the ‘Century of the City’. Half of the world’s population now lives in urban areas and by the middle of this century most regions of the developing world will be predominantly urban (UN-HABITAT 2008). The level of urbanization in Pakistan went up from 17.8% in 1951 to 32.5% in 1998. The current level of urbanization in the country is not high by global standards, but it still is the highest in South Asia (as discussed in earlier chapters).

Another report focuses on three major threats to the safety and security of urban residents: crime and violence; insecurity of tenure and forced eviction; and natural and man-made disasters (UN-HABITAT 2007). As cities continue to grow rapidly, they are particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. Rising global temperatures and the resultant changes in weather patterns and sea levels have direct impacts on cities. In particular, the cities located along Pakistan’s coastline will face an increased number of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, flooding and heat waves.

To give a recent example, Karachi, the biggest city of Pakistan, was flooded following a heavy downpour on 18 July 2009. The power system in the city remained inoperative for up to two to three days, followed by an acute shortage of water. Several incidents of violence were reported during that time. The city’s transport system also collapsed completely and the roads were inundated. At least 53 people were reported dead, as a result of electrocution or due to collapsed roof or walls. In some areas, residents complained of stagnant water in their streets even 10 days after the rains. Experts believe that urban planners in Pakistan have not yet started taking into account preventive measures to combat the challenges posed by such climatic disasters. As a result, roads and underpasses constructed with billions of rupees change into pools of stagnant water after just half an hour of downpour.

Karachi is one of the largest cities in the world and it continues to grow rapidly. The city’s population—estimated by City District Government Karachi officials to have already reached 18 million—will double by 2025, if the current rate of population growth is sustained. About 1.5 million automobile drivers are officially registered and the traffic density is likely to increase by 10% annually. This implies that the city’s residents are exposed to particulate pollution from an increasing number of vehicles on the roads. The sheer mass of people in the city reflects that an ordinary event can affect the lives of thousands off people if not millions, which is why the local government needs to urgently undertake mapping of both natural and man-made hazards, and integrate disaster risk reduction (DRR) and mitigation strategies with its regular development plans.

“The west and east coasts of Karachi are already low-lying, and even a slight sea level rise would adversely impact the population of these areas,” says Tahir Qureshi, Director, Coastal Ecosystem, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Pakistan. “The highest tide is very close to the astronomical high tide. Thus, any increase in sea level as a result of climate change will inundate large areas along Pakistan’s coastline,” warns Prof. Shahid Amjad, Dean, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences.

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Karachi has been used as an example here, but the fact remains that almost all big cities of Pakistan are growing at a fast pace. Opportunities for disaster reconstruction funding, to contribute to the building of urban resilience, have too often been missed by national and international agencies. When funds are not available for disaster management, funds earmarked for development are likely to be diverted to finance reconstruction and mega construction schemes. This also increases the vulnerability of urban populations to the adverse impacts of climate change. Building Resilience in Urban Centres Actions in urban areas have a major influence on whether the risks arising from the direct and indirect effects of climate change can be mitigated. Well planned and well-governed urban areas can greatly reduce risks, while unplanned and poorly governed cities can greatly increase them. Many countries and cities have managed to urbanize without placing a huge environmental burden on the world’s resources, thereby mitigating climate change. The challenge for cities is to implement policies that encourage lower energy consumption and emissions, and to reduce vulnerability of urban populations.

World Bank estimates indicate that in metropolitan areas, the transport sector accounts for a third or more of total greenhouse gas emissions. The growth of cities or urban ‘sprawl’ continues to put pressure on existing transport networks. The trend towards increased motorization results in longer travel time for surface public transport (buses)—which, in turn, induces more auto and taxi use—and in poor traffic safety, economic inefficiency of increased fuel use and degradation of the quality of life.

In Pakistan, buses play a significant role in commuting a large number of poeple from one point in a city to another. Since 2000, the government has undertaken a comprehensive initiative to modernize its existing fleet of buses, with a view to having minimum imapct on the environment. This public-private partnership (PPP) venture would gradually introduce 8,000 CNG buses throughout the country, of which 800 buses would be in Karachi. This venture is expected to ensure high standards of energy efficiency and air cleanliness.

Intercity buses run by private owners are in a better shape than the ones used within cities and are owned by the goverment. As a result, many people prefer to use their own vehicles and rely on public transport only when necessary. According to International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles, as of December 2008, Pakistan has the world’s highest number of vehicles (2 million) running on CNG. Pakistan also has the world’s highest numer of CNG refuelling stations—2,941(as of 29 July 2009). This growth is phenomenal, especially considering that CNG as a fuel was introduced in Pakistan in as late as 1992.

However, Pakistan still has to develop mass transit systems of transport for its rapidly growing population. The Karachi Circular Railway, which started in the early 1940s, is still the only functioning mass transit system in Pakistan. In 1976, Karachi was to begin work on an underground rapid trasit system, but plans have been put on hold since. Similarly, the Lahore Metro project, scheduled to be completed by 2020, is still in the planning stage.

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E Building Resilience at the Community Level The only way to build resilience of communities is to engage them on issues of climate change, especially those that are relevant to their daily lives. These discussions or skill-enhancement trainings can be intricately woven into the designs of most community-based programmes in both rural and urban areas. Though the contribution of Pakistani CSOs and NGOs towards this end has been discussed at length in Chapter 5, it is important to first share a few case studies of resilience at the community level, to set the context and to better situate the problem. Northern Pakistan: Community Empowerment In the northern areas of Pakistan, home to one of the remotest and most disadvantaged mountain regions of the world, living conditions are harsh, with winter temperatures dropping below -30 degrees Celsius. Spread over 75,000 square kilometres of rugged terrain with a population of over 1.2 million, the average household income in this area is only $0.50 per day, even less than the national average. With its mission to enhance the quality of life of rural populations, the Aga Khan Planning and Building Service-Pakistan (AKPBS-P)—an agency of the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN)—has focused many of its initiatives on building resilience of the communities in Gilgit-Baltistan and in Chitral District.

Discussions with local villagers and community elders reveal that gradually the locals are realizing the effects of climate change on their lives. They express concern over drying springs and water sources. The women fear that with every season they may have to cover longer distances in search of clean drinking water to cater to the needs of their families.

The AKPBS-P’s ‘Water and Sanitation Extension Programme’ is the direct result of several years of research conducted by the AKDN to provide infrastructural solutions related to water supply needs of the rural communities. These solutions include water storage reservoirs, local filtration plants, pipes to route water from the source to the household, tap stands, drainage systems, latrines, soakage pits, septic tanks, etc. These interventions help ensure potable water supply and hygienic sanitation facilities for the locals, especially women and children.

The AKPSB-P stresses the importance of upholding local traditions for development organizations working at the community level. This makes interventions acceptable to the locals, as well as ensures their sustainability. Women were consulted during the project design phase concerning their hardships and challenges in relation to fulfilling water and sanitation needs. Provision of potable piped water at their doorsteps has reduced the time spent by them in collecting water from an average of two to three hours per day to almost none. Generally, women in villages have to wait to go to the open fields for defecating because of the presence of men. The Programme has addressed a major quality-of-life issue for women by constructing latrines for each household in the target villages.

To encourage the local communities to build resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change, such as depleting natural resources, the Programme facilitates establishment of water and sanitation committees in all the target villages. These community-based

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committees, which focus on the participation of women, are entrusted with the task of securing sustainable water sources to cope with population growth and increasing demand. Focusing on investments in self-management, together with the provision of a high standard of capacity building and physical infrastructure, the Programme helps the local communities enhance resilience to climate change.

It is no surprise that, even when fulfilling domestic energy needs, climate change has a disproportionate impact on women. The northern areas of Pakistan do not have access to supply of gas for energy, so the locals have to rely heavily on fuel-wood and open stoves for cooking and heating their homes. Not only does this practice result in indoor air pollution (to which women are most exposed) and high workload related to fuel-wood collection (again impacting women the most), it is also one of the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, as a result of changing weather patterns, the winters in the northern areas of Pakistan have witnessed a sharp increase in both severity and duration. This places an additional burden on women to collect more firewood and, as a result, on natural resources.

The AKPBS-P, through its ‘Building and Construction Improvement Programme’, has introduced a series of energy-efficient products and technologies for the local communities to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change. These products, ranging from fuel-efficient stoves to water-warming facilities, endeavour to improve the lives of women; and empower them socially, economically and physically. In particular, they reduce the workload of women by helping them save the time spent in collecting wood, cleaning the house and doing other household chores.

Intervening at the household level to promote energy-efficient technologies, the Programme has worked to develop enterprises to deal with growing energy needs. By training manufacturers and entrepreneurs, it has targeted both the demand and supply side of the market, subsequently using market forces to build local capacity in coping with heating and insulation needs due to increased changes in climatic patterns. The physical fitness and health of the women has improved because of the adoption of the Programme’s technologies that promote ventilated, well-insulated and clean homes. Moreover, making women partners in the decision-making process and giving them a say in the planning of their homes has helped uplift their social status.

Gilgit-Baltistan consists of more than 150,000 traditional dwellings of rubble stone masonry or earthen construction, offering ample evidence of high vulnerability to natural hazards. In the absence of good quality wood for construction, the majority of houses in the area have used materials that do not have sufficient strength to withstand a major earthquake. Making heavy and thick roofs of domestic structures and inappropriate protection measures against rain penetration and rising dampness also pose serious challenges to the safety of residents. In addition, lack of awareness regarding mitigation measures further enhances vulnerabilities to disasters.

The ‘Habitat Risk Management Programme’, initiated by the AKPBS-P to serve as a catalyst for DRR, aims at promoting gender equality by involving women in decision-making from the programme planning to execution stage. This policy objective has been translated into action by imparting training to local female youth in village mapping, documentation, hazard mapping and vulnerability assessment in several disaster-prone

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villages of Gilgit-Baltistan. The direct focus on reducing gender inequalities not only serves to empower women by facilitating opportunities for decision-making, but also provides them with life-saving skills so that natural hazards do not necessarily turn into natural disasters.

Acknowledging that DRR and prevention techniques are the most cost-effective for rural populations, the Programme places strong emphasis on enhancing the communities’ indigenous resilience to natural hazards by increasing among them awareness about both structural and non-structural risk mitigation practices. These include support in construction and retrofitting of structures to make them seismic-resistant; technical advice in land-use planning; development of cost-effective material supply mechanisms; etc. These interventions help the communities to build on their strengths to effectively cope with the effects of increasing natural hazards.

The AKPBS-P’s interventions, ranging from provision of integrated water and sanitation facilities to making energy-efficient innovations and constructing safer houses and schools, address a range of social issues: natural resource management, poverty alleviation, improved health and hygiene, community empowerment, etc. Perhaps the most critical effort that binds these interventions together for a sustained impact on the wellbeing of local communities is the emphasis placed on gender dimension of the various problems that perpetuate inadequate living conditions. There is little doubt that the same formula for strengthening and empowering women can save many households against the adverse impacts of climate change. Village Chauntra, Islamabad: Biogas Plants Saeeda, 37, lives in the village Chauntra on the outskirts of Islamabad. She teaches Urdu and organizes extra-curricular activities at the local girls’ high school. Saeeda never married and she lives with her mother and three brothers and their families in a joint family setup. When staff of the Initiative for Rural and Sustainable Development visited the village more than 12 years ago to inform the local community about the benefits of biogas, Saeeda’s family was one of the first households that agreed to install the plant.

“Initially no one in the village believed that we could produce gas from manure and it took us about a month to convince others. Now we do no have to collect wood unless there is a big ceremony in the house. The food is cooked faster on gas. We no longer have cough or watery eyes from the smoke of burning wood. Moreover, the walls of kitchen and pots do no get blackened. Earlier we had to plaster our kitchen with mud every month. The best thing is that now we can do other things while cooking; you cannot do anything else when wood is burning because you have to keep prodding or adding more twigs to keep the flame alive. Moreover, our children do not get sick as frequently as they did in the past,” Saeeda narrates.

The slurry (mixture of used manure and water) that comes out of the biogas plant can be used in vegetable gardens or in the fields. “Last year we used slurry in our fields, while our neighbours used urea fertilizer. It rained and their maize was completely destroyed, but we had a good crop,” Saeeda mentions. Slurry improves the physical characteristics of the soil, because manure obtained from biogas is rich in humus, and it prevents water logging and ensures good aeration of the soil.

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Biogas is a clean fuel, but it is not a solution for the poor families: one needs to have livestock for manure and around 50,000 rupees to set up a biogas plant. It is important to emphasize the recharge capacity of a healthy soil, because it allows water to permeate and ensure a healthy groundwater. On the other hand, the urea that is generally used by the poor rural people hardens the topsoil and enhances the runoff of rainwater, rather than absorbing it. Village Hunjarai, Muzaffargarh District: Community Participation The village council of Hunjarai (Muzaffargarh District), located on the banks of Indus River, believes in classless inclusion of the entire community in discussion and decision-making. This initiative of the Pakistan Wetlands Programme (PWP) makes it possible for the villagers to gather each month for a guided discussion on socioeconomic and environmental issues, so that they could develop joint strategies to address them. The Programme is being implemented in villages throughout the ‘Central Indus Wetlands Complex’, an important wetlands region that spans from Chashma in Punjab to Sukkur in Upper Sindh.

The community members actively discuss everything from agricultural and water problems to depleting fish stocks. It is an informal but planned meeting that ensures that everyone gets a chance to speak. Not far from the venue of the meeting, a similar gathering of the women is also being held. At the face of it, these meetings are not different from conventional community meetings common in many parts of rural Pakistan. However, there is a fundamental difference between traditional village meetings and the ones held in the village of Hunjarai. While a traditional village meeting is strictly patriarchal, the reserve of the male village elders and community gatekeepers, the village council of Hunjarai has no established hierarchy, because it primarily aims at providing a platform to all community members to have a voice in the development of their area.

The discussions reflect the rich topography of the area, including braided and meandering river channels, islands, oxbow lakes, and seasonal depressions. The discussions encompass mounting climate change threats to the region’s rich and diverse wildlife, home to 66 different species of birds only. The villagers also exchange information and suggest solutions to safeguard the surviving population of the endangered Indus Dolphin.

Hunjarai, comprising about 200 economically impoverished households, is largely bereft of basic amenities of life. Indus River is its only source of livelihood for its residents. Despite being poor, the local community has made some extraordinary decisions. It is safeguarding threatened wildlife, and is acquiring new fishing methods that prevent wastage and untimely catch. The women are making use of modified clay stoves that conserve energy and have dramatically reduced cutting down of scant forests around the village. After the PWP installed more than 100 efficient stoves in the village this year, the women are now devising strategies to boost their socioeconomic condition by utilizing the time that they save because of the new stoves. Baltistan: Glacier Grafting Some communities in Baltistan have a unique way of preserving their water resources. Glacier grafting or glacier growing is a community initiative practiced since centuries. It

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is based on the premise that humans can influence the lives of glaciers, just as glaciers can influence the lives of humans. Glacier grafting is thus recognized by the local people as an important aspect of how they manage their water resources.

Vital to the local understanding of ice and glaciers are the categories of female glacier and male glacier. Attributing gender categories to glaciers implies a view that glaciers are animated and they give birth. In local understanding, a ‘female glacier’ grows quickly and gives off a lot of water. A male glacier, on the other hand, grows slowly and gives little water. The locals believe that a combination of female and male glaciers was necessary for glacier grafting. Sometimes they walk for a whole day (one way) to make sure that both female and male glaciers are mixed. This journey usually involves ascent from lower lying valleys around 3,000-5,000 metres above the sea level up to altitudes around 6,500-8,000 metres above the sea level.

The local people mostly undertake this journey in October and November, when the temperature is dropping and the risk of ice melting is minimal. An appropriate site for glacier grafting is selected following certain parameters, such as altitude, presence of permafrost, and exposure to and relief from sun. Locations below steep mountain cliffs are the primary consideration, so that avalanches and snow-slips arriving from the cliffs could also contribute to the growing of the glacier.

The local branch of the Aga Khan Rural Support Programme (AKRSP) in Skardu became involved in this community initiative to overcome water scarcity and has so far supported glacier grafting projects in 15 villages of Baltistan. The AKRSP sees this initiative as a way to support indigenous knowledge, as something that is inherently scientific and based on accumulation of knowledge by observation.

This chapter’s main focus has been on the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on women’s health. In addition, the impacts of water shortage on particularly women have been discussed. The chapter has also underscored the problems being faced by urban populations, especially those living in slums. Finally, case studies of resilience at the local level have been presented to highlight that community participation is the key to meeting the increasing challenges being posed by climate change.

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Chapter 4: Mobilizing for Change A The Current Debate The current discourse around the Kyoto Protocol and global climatic changes recognizes mobilizing the creativity and knowledge of local communities as the cornerstone of international responses to climate change and environmental depletion. This notion is supported by a growing discourse on ‘climate justice’, arguing that those most affected by the increased climate-related disasters around the world are usually the least responsible for causing disruptions to the climate. Any initiative seeking a comprehensive response to climate change and trying to enhance civic potential must therefore call for creating spaces for the voices of the least contributing yet the most affected communities.

Many peoples around the world are simultaneously impacted by climate disruptions and also by the emerging corporate ‘solutions’ to climate change that are neither people-centred nor sustainable. These ‘solutions’ include carbon trading and off-sets, the destruction of forests to create bio-fuel (agro-fuel) plantations, large-scale hydroelectric developments, and nuclear power that often expand commodification and privatization, whether of land, waterways or the atmosphere itself, largely at the expense of the affected communities.

Against this backdrop, processes for inclusive community and stakeholder dialogue based on democratic participation with attention to social justice are essential for a successful transition from a threatened environment to a safer world (Fleay 2006). Some basic principles critical to meaningful civic engagements include:

Governments’ commitment to listen to divergent voices, especially of those populations most effected by the adverse impacts of climate change and environmental degradation.

Stakeholders’ ability to listen to other actors while preparing responses to climate change.

Governments’ efforts to ensure that the engagement is reflective of the community: that the aspirations of special interest groups are calibrated against a cross section of the community.

Governments’ openness with the process of engagement and with its sharing of information.

Governments’ commitment to implementing the outcomes of the process.

Establishment of permanent channels of feedback from participants to ensure that the broader community stays engaged.

Leadership’s ownership of the agreed upon principles.

Climate change is complex and unpredictable. In order to address its often self-perpetuating complexity, staying on course and not steering off the mark in exploring sustainable solutions to climate change, a new paradigm is needed to guide our thinking. Exercising ‘Deliberate Democracy’ in mobilizing communities for change is considered

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as a proven approach for ‘steering’ the system towards a more sustainable direction. The ‘Deliberative Democracy’ approach combines three basic tenets (Carson and Hartz-Karp 2005):

1. Representation and Inclusion: In most cases, an opportunity exists for a representative group of ordinary citizens to come together to deliberate on issues important to society. However, those deliberations need to include citizens regardless of gender, age, wealth, education race and religion. Random sampling is still the best known method of inclusion.

2. Deliberation: Disparate people have the opportunity to engage in egalitarian discourse on a public issue, taking into account multiple views and comprehensive, balanced information. The hope is that through respectful dialogue, participants will solve problems creatively and find common ground.

3. Influence: This tenet requires a reversion back to or introduction of democratic basics—heeding the informed will of the people, particularly when their ideas have been tested out against others—by creating an environment that seeks to discover aggregate, communitarian viewpoints.

Taking this debate and the underlying principles as premise, now we move on to two fundamental questions: first, what has been the significance of mobilizing communities for change against the backdrop of climate change-induced vulnerabilities; and second, what are the lessons learned in Pakistan?

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B Social Movements and Partnerships A sustainable response to climate change and environmental depletion is now a shared global objective, which recognizes that its attainment is impossible if not attempted by the people themselves. In fact, for a development strategy to be sustainable, it must enhance the affected populations’ ability to become ‘experts of their own conditions’, to be able to identify their vulnerabilities and unsustainable responses and initiate measures to correct them at the local level.

In this context, change is a human process, with its roots in peoples’ initiative and preparedness for change. This is testified by development case studies from around the world, which demonstrate that no development can sustain even with colossal costs of implementation, if people do not own the process; and government efforts, however well-intentioned, alone may not yield fruitful results if people do not participate in the process.

This is so because people are both the means and the end of development. For any impact on their lives, change efforts must be demand-driven, responsive to local needs and sustainable through local resources. In short, the key to a sustainable development strategy is that efforts must be directed towards mobilizing and empowering the local community.

Individuals gathering for a common cause, either synergized through mutual reflection or motivated by external stimuli or both, form social movements. These movements become critical vessels for citizens acting collectively to pursue their common interests. It has long been identified that large-scale changes seed and sprout through movement groups, which may range from small ad hoc local networks to large-scale national advocacy organizations (Putnam 2000).

The relationship between social movements and socio-environmental change is a longstanding area of inquiry. Hundreds of organized and spontaneous environmental organizations have evolved across the world in response to increasing environmental degradation. These social movements play a key role in determining how a society will respond to environmental change and are critical to structuring societal responses to environmental problems.

Since social movements spring from deliberations of their members, they may remain largely independent of the direct control of market forces’ institutional dynamics and the political power of the state. This sense of autonomy is the key to the capacity of civil society to serve as a vital force for change from within (Skocpol 2003).

In recent times, social movement organizations and networks in the developing world, including Pakistan, have increasingly become more cognizant of their central role in mobilizing change within their primary stakeholders, and inducing shifts among external actors and forces. Many of these organizations and networks have become professionalized and the environmental movement is no exception (Brulle and Jenkins 2008).

Mobilizing for change is a cultural process too—social movements percolate within a cultural milieu that can either be supportive or prohibitive to their emergence, affecting their ability to achieve the desired change. It often entails crucial cultural shifts, adoption of novel perspectives and being receptive to new ideas. Major thinkers indicate the need

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for examining the cultural contexts in which movements grow, flourish and wither. The channeling power of culture proposes examination of a number of distinct sets of relationships. At the same time, political opportunities are critical for translating environmental mobilization into concrete and tangible policies. This often requires changes in norms and beliefs—in short, a cultural revolution. Developing Partnerships Since the adverse impacts of climate change and environmental degradation have severer implications for the poor than the rich, policies aimed at ensuring environmental sustainability should involve the former. While governments’ track record of involving citizens in environmental and planning portfolios demonstrates sporadic and often unsustainable pattern, the achievement rate of their efforts will ultimately depend on the active involvement of indigenous populations.

Perhaps recognizing this fact is the first step towards harnessing general public’s potential to meet the challenges posed by climate change. On the one hand, this process is about empowering individuals and communities at the grassroots level. On the other, it is about giving them a voice and letting them take the lead. This necessitates more effective partnerships between people and governments in the process of development, leading to mutual empowerment: people are empowered, and governments become efficient and responsive to their needs. This is a proven approach. For four decades, development partners, globally, have been tapping into this vital human resource, often through the fielding of skilled and experienced professionals to mobilize change. Evidence suggests that community engagement strategies can contribute to improving climate change policy outcomes by:

Assisting citizens and communities in developing an informed understanding of climate change trends and impacts.

Maximising opportunities for citizens and communities to contribute to public debate about climate change issues and actions.

Helping in the development and implementation of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies by individuals, households, communities and CSOs.

Strengthening local ownership of climate change policy decisions and actions.

Informing the development and implementation of locally-tailored and sustainable structures, support networks and actions.

Encouraging social innovation and skill building informed by indigenous knowledge and tailored to local conditions.

Broadening and deepening input into government policymaking processes.

Strengthening the private sector’s support for governments to effectively respond to the challenges posed by climate change.

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C Rights, Institutions and Mobilizing for Change Debates and discourses on equality of political, civic and social rights for every individual abound in the present times. From its very genesis of entering into formal theoretical thinking in the 1950s, the notion that all citizens have not only political and civic rights, but also social rights highlighted the links between social and economic inequality, and called for political and civil rights by groups with little power and resources (Gaventa and Jones 2002).

Historically, the idea of ‘rights’ continued to lend itself beyond development: for example, it has been the basis for liberation struggles throughout the global South. The idea is also firmly anchored in the debate around the right to development. In 1986, the United Nations explicitly linked human rights with development when it passed the Declaration on the Right to Development, which is based on the five core principles of participation, accountability, transparency, equity and non-discrimination.

Figure 1: Rights, Institutions and Social Change

Source: Kelleher and Rao 2005

Central to this thinking process is the effort to bring about change in relations of power, which means changing formal and informal rules that determine who does what, who gets what, what counts, and who decides. The concept of human rights provides the ethical, normative structure for development processes in two directions: from top-down, as a

Social Change: transforming inequitable relationships and structures of power

Informal Institutions/ Invisible Power Ideology and

culture

Unequal power relations

Formal Institutions/ Visible Power: Civil society, political parties, other organizational actors and their cultural, accountability, cognitive and political systems 1. Mobilization and voice

2. Rights and choice 3. Capabilities, assets and resources

Empowerment

Human Rights Framework

1. Economic, social and political opportunities for participation

2. Transparency and accountability 3. Decentralization of resources

Human Rights Framework

Opportunity Structure

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foundation for policy and institutional reform processes and resource decentralization with greater social and public accountability; and from bottom-up, as a foundation for processes of mobilization and voice (Figure 1).

The link between rights-based approach and issues around the environment and climate change offers a new perspective. At the development level, the ‘rights-based’ backdrop offers a specific filter to view local populations, especially women, from all regions of the world not only as dependent on the natural environment but also seriously undertaking their role as custodians of its healthy continuity. Their rich and detailed traditional knowledge reflects and embodies a knowledge base manifest in their cultural and historical relationship with the land, ocean and wildlife.

It is evident that while human activity is being affected by climate change, it is also an active agent of changing the world’s climate and altering the natural environment to which these populations are so closely attached and on which they rely so heavily. There is little doubt then that local communities are on the frontlines of climate change. They observe and experience climate and environmental changes firsthand, all along summoning their traditional knowledge and survival skills to resist these changes as best as they can and, in many cases, adapt to them.

The communities facing climate change and environmental degradation have to deal with a fundamental and pervasive problem. In fact, their struggle against disproportionate odds is being carried out on uneven grounds at a time when their cultures and livelihoods are already undergoing significant shifts and ruptures due, in part, to the fast development of natural resources in their areas, stimulated by trade liberalization and globalization.

Drawing upon their timeless traditional wisdom—the crux of their cultural resilience—local populations continue to be the first ones to beseech national governments, multi-nationals and civil society to do more to protect the Earth and human society from the spoils of environmental degradation. This is particularly true for women, who produce most of the food in developing countries. As agricultural workers and family providers, they are responsible for up to two-thirds of household food production in some parts of Pakistan.

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D Unheard Voices Inclusion of a broad range of stakeholders is often part of policy responses to climate change. Related literature also alludes to expressions and approaches such as ‘participation’, ‘stakeholder engagement’, ‘bottom-up’ processes and other terms associated with inclusive governance. However, in actual practice, such approaches are found few and far between.

While the term ‘participation’ has been subject to considerable interpretation, it principally refers to securing active involvement of a broad range of stakeholders in decision-making and action. Such participation encompasses input into formal decision-making structures, as well as into the deliberative democratic fora that have been advocated strongly in environmental governance in recent years, strongly influenced by Habermas’ notion of ‘communicative rationality’ (Mitchell and Parkins 2005). This public participation in decision-making processes could either be coordinated by governmental institutions and other agencies, or emerge directly from the grassroots.

The other important point to take into account in this discourse is as to who gains ‘voice’ as a result of participatory approach. It is important for the simple reason that communities are seldom consensual, homogeneous entities in which people have equal capacity to articulate their concerns (Brosius and Tsing 1998).

Different social actors have variable access to a participatory process: while the already empowered, elite or special interest groups can attain wider spaces and exert disproportionate influence on the decision-making process and outcomes (Bloomfield et al. 2001), the disempowered and the excluded may find themselves continually marginalized in this process. Therefore, it is not unusual for development partners to face difficulty in determining whether more active participants of a meeting, including organized pressure groups, fairly represent the views of less active community members. Other Challenges Despite best efforts, there are cases where community involvement and mobilization remain pretty much a cosmetic overlay, rather than an integrated and inclusive approach. Some of the ongoing challenges in this regard include the following:

Community involvement has become a clinical component of technocratic, managerial systems of governance. Ironically, much of the decision-making sponsored by development partners is often handed down to ‘experts’, who have the power to determine what knowledge is and what it is not. While policymakers are prepared to accept the views of such ‘experts’, the views of ordinary citizens are treated with suspicion.

Most forms of community consultation tend to attract those who are already empowered or those with vested interests. The marginalized community members generally have no encouragement to participate in such consultations; when they do participate, their voices are rarely heard. Unsurprisingly, therefore, most consultations often fall short of addressing the ‘real’ issues, identifying the most vulnerable and involving a communitarian outlook.

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Hierarchical setups in government institutions make gateways to decision-making guarded and exclusive; those with extraordinary influence may enter, but ordinary citizens are often excluded. While the ordinary members of community are painstakingly mobilized to ‘have a say’, there is rarely any indication of how their views have been considered during the policy formulation process.

The unintended consequences of bolting community engagement on to such a system have been the alienation of ordinary citizens, who feel either unwelcome or unable to participate in the decisions that directly affect their lives; and the disconnect between policy developers/decision-makers and ‘practical wisdom’: the experience, insight, understanding and local knowledge of ordinary citizens (Booth 2006).

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E Environment, Climate Change and Women’s Rights Unchecked and escalating population growth, increasing land degradation and shrinking agricultural land, along with overall environmental depletion, are all resulting in an ecological crisis. Therefore, the need to consider alternative strategies to promote ecological sustainability, particularly at the rural community level, has never been greater.

This calls for bringing the idea of ‘rights’ to the centre of remedial processes through an approach that is both inclusive and holistic. In real terms, this means incorporating issues around the environment, women and population into all policy-planning and implementation processes. The link between the three also needs to be better understood by policymakers and programmers to improve their efforts to address climate change and environmental degradation as an integrated reality that affects entire communities.

However, a crucial component of the solution is a much more serious attention to women’s needs, rights and inherent capacities for resisting environmental threats. This, in effect, means designing policies that correct gender biases in social, economic and technological contexts. On ground, this means replacing single-sector approaches with cross-sectoral ones that link the environment, population and women with all other development policies and programmes.

For Pakistani rural women, in particular, vulnerabilities emanating from environmental degradation and climate change are exacerbated by the lack of infrastructure, functional literacy and current information and by their poor living conditions, mostly overlooked by policy and decision-makers. Subsequently, the rural women are in jeopardy because of these factors.

While women continue to be the major producers of food as well as cash crops, this unrecognized and unpaid contribution means that they never quit fulfilling their responsibilities; instead, they continue to work for long hours every day to make sure they have enough for their families. Despite that, the rural women remain grossly under-represented in decision-making institutions, both at the local and national levels. Because of their invisibility in many spheres of decision-making, their concerns about and responses to environmental changes go unnoticed.

With the realization growing that women are important partners in the development process, women can now begin to understand their experiences and the kind of strategies they employ to face environmental challenges. Women’s poverty, their comparative lack of leadership and participation in decision-making, and their lack of control over resources are attributed to a number of factors, such as low literacy and skills, financial insecurity, and lack of awareness of their rights. It would be foolish to continue to ignore and deny the existence of women’s agency: their ability to critically understand their reality, to have their concerns be heard and to express their assessment of desirable changes, all of which are often restricted by social and political factors (Chen, Germain and Sen 1994).

Largely poor, Pakistan’s rural women continue to use their life skills in ‘making something out of nothing’. Their ability to withstand multiple environmental and climate change-related shocks testifies to their as yet unacknowledged capacity for resilience.

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Their deprivation often transcends into developing innovative ways of maximising meagre resources and their utility. A pertinent example of this ability is women’s negotiated use of available resources turning a waste by-product into fuel (biogas plants case study in Chapter 3).

In most rural areas of Pakistan, women’s exclusion and marginal social status make them more prone to using indigenous knowledge of exploiting alternative resources usually ignored by the mainstream economy. This also explains why, in these rural communities, women’s knowledge of biodiversity is often more comprehensive than that of men. Their traditional knowledge, for instance, of local plants helps them to separate edible plants from inedible or poisonous ones that can be used for medicinal purposes after processing. This is in contrast with men’s botanical knowledge that tends to focus on plants that can be used as staples or marketed as cash crops. Moreover, women’s ability of ‘making something out of nothing’ is nonetheless labour-intensive.

With environmental degradation and disappearance of botanical diversity, the reservoir of timeless wisdom and knowledge is also withering. The loss of indigenous knowledge is a permanent loss of a precious resource. An entire bank of data, time-tested information, collected over thousands of years in indigenous knowledge systems, has much to offer to scientific explorations for sustainable solutions to the adverse impacts of climate change.

“The disappearance of local knowledge through its interaction with the dominant western knowledge takes place at many levels. First, local knowledge is made to disappear by simply not seeing it, by negating its very existence in the wake of an emerging, globalizing dominant system. The western systems of knowledge have generally been viewed as universal. However, the dominant system is also a local system, with its social basis in a particular culture, class and gender. It is not universal in an epistemological sense. It is merely the globalised version of a very local and parochial tradition. Emerging from a dominating and colonising culture, modern knowledge systems are themselves colonizing” (Shiva 1993).

Pakistani CSOs and NGOs have documented ample evidence that supports the view that women’s indigenous knowledge and resilience to climate change emanates from their multiple roles and responsibilities, and their own survival as the most marginalized members of an inequitable society. The major development challenge, however, remains not just women’s disadvantageous positions within communities, but their virtual absence from mainstream decision-making and development discourse.

Despite playing a spectrum of critical roles in society, women largely remain a social and political minority whose needs and views are seldom included at the macro level. While, on the one hand, there is a growing realization of the need to ensure that women participate in and benefit from socioeconomic development processes; on the other, it is becoming obvious that developmental, demographic and environmental issues cannot be sustainably addressed without taking into account views of almost half of the population.

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F CSOs and NGOs Working on Environmental Issues In Pakistan, while the role of communities in becoming dynamic agents of addressing environmental issues remains largely fragmented, the space for civil society engagement has been increasing over the last few years, more in some sectors than others. This engagement is primarily because of increasing recognition by politicians and government that CSOs and NGOs can be valuable partners in development. According to a study, there are about 10,000 registered and 50,000 unregistered development organizations in Pakistan (NGORC 2001). Of these, 56% are working on education, 39% on health and 39% on women’s development. Other major areas of intervention include early childhood development, sports and recreation, and community development. However, very few Pakistani CSOs and NGOs are working specifically on climate change, though the number of those working on the environment and DRR is higher.

Within the formalized sectors, there has been a paradigm shift in the role of civil society in meeting environmental challenges, from being primarily advocates of reform to becoming partners of the government in delivering social services. Because of their networks at the grassroots level and intimate knowledge of environmental issues, CSOs and NGOs have an advantage over government agencies or the private sector in delivering services to communities.

Pakistani CSOs and NGOs working on environmental issues focus mainly on biodiversity and wildlife conservation; ecosystem management; energy efficiency and renewables; sustainable forestry; and water supply and management. In comparison, much lesser attention is paid to urban issues, such as air pollution and disposal of industrial waste. In addition, most environmental initiatives undertaken by CSOs and NGOs tend to be geographically-constrained, resulting in difficulties in scaling-up impacts from pilots and demonstrations.

However, at the same time, it is satisfying to note that all stakeholders are approaching climate change from different angles, which is helping in looking at the scenario in a holistic manner. For example, some CSOs and NGOs are working at the policy level, while others have launched initiatives at the community level. Similarly, these organizations are addressing mitigation and adaptation issues in different geographic zones of the country. In the following, activities of three leading Pakistani organizations working on environmental issues, especially on climate change, have been discussed: Leadership for Environment and Development Pakistan Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD) Pakistan has identified a range of factors contributing to critical levels of climate change vulnerability in the country: growing water scarcity, excessive dependence on local agricultural productivity, ecological fragility, poor health indicators and widespread poverty. In view of these, it has designed a five-year (2009-2014) Climate Action Programme that envisions building Pakistan’s capacity to effectively deal with climate change at the policy, institutional and grassroots level, engaging key stakeholders in the public, corporate and civic sectors.

Engagement for promoting sectorally-integrated and informed climate change policies is a key objective of LEAD Pakistan, which also trains decision-makers on mainstreaming

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climate change into development policies. Based on the successful experience of establishing multi-stakeholder platforms, such as the Knowledge Network on Climate Change and All Foresters Forum, it is forging an alliance of 100 community-based organizations (CBOs) across Pakistan. The National Alliance for Climate Action aims to build capacities for climate change adaptation and mitigation at the grassroots level, as well as enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities.

LEAD Pakistan notes that some of the local farming communities are already trying to adapt to the impacts of climate change without even realizing it: altering cropping schedules, changing seed and crop varieties, testing water conservation and harvesting schemes, or, as a last resort, switching to non-agrarian forms of trade and livelihood. These communities are thus attuned to the changing climatic trends, but their experiences and knowledge need to be adequately documented. The organization expects to improve such documentation through the alliance of CBOs it is forging, and hopes to raise the profile of issues and concerns relevant to the local stakeholders. Oxfam GB-Pakistan Climate change is the biggest campaign for Oxfam GB at the global level, being implemented in 80 countries throughout the world. The organization has been working on DRR in Pakistan since 2003. In 2008, under its new National Change Strategy (2009-2014), it incorporated climate change into its ongoing DRR projects. The programme includes disaster preparedness and management activities for affected communities, as well as introduces livelihood enhancement interventions for them, especially women. Oxfam GB-Pakistan started working on climate change by undertaking a stakeholder mapping and power analysis exercise. The organization has the additional advantage that its extensive work at the grassroots level helps in collecting case studies that highlight the adverse impacts of climatic variability on communities.

Importantly, Oxfam GB-Pakistan recently conducted a study titled Climate Change: Impacts on Coastal, Flood and Drought Prone Areas of Pakistan, which looks into how communities are being affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. The study also gives preliminary recommendations for developing sample climate change monitoring indicators, which will then be used by communities to monitor changes that are occurring in their immediate environment (for example, Layyah District reported its first hailstorm in 30 years in March 2009 and Badin District, which has an average annual rainfall of 125 millimetres, received 100 millimetres of rain in a single day in July 2009). The Oxfam GB-Pakistan study also recommends developing a climate change adaptation programme including the components of livestock, water resources, rangeland management, fisheries, and health and hygiene. Global Change Impact Study Centre Global Change Impact Study Centre (GCISC) was established in May 2002 by the Planning Commission and it is now a part of the Ministry of Environment. Its main objective is to understand the phenomenon of climate change, scientifically determine its likely adverse impacts on various socioeconomic sectors in Pakistan and devise strategies to counter them. Another objective of GCISC is to establish itself as a national focal point

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for providing cohesion to climate change-related activities. The Centre studies the adverse impacts of climate change, especially on agriculture and water, and develops Pakistan-specific scenarios based on weather data obtained from the Meteorological Department. The scientists at GCISC use special models to generate past trends across different climatic zones of Pakistan to make climate change projections for the present and future. This research is crucial for determining climate change adaptation measures for different climate zones of the country.

Effective community engagement and participation are imperative for improving climate change policy outcomes in Pakistan. However, the already empowered, elite or special interest groups can attain wider spaces and exert disproportionate influence on the decision-making process and outcomes. This calls for ensuring that the views of all stakeholders are given equal importance in the policy formulation process. The idea of ‘rights’ must be brought to the centre of remedial processes through an approach that is both inclusive and holistic. Finally, it is encouraging to note that more and more CSOs and NGOs that were working earlier on environmental issues have incorporated climate change into their agendas.

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The Way Forward A Climate Change: A Global Response Despite the fact that most people in the developing world are not yet fully aware of its ramifications, the response to climate change has been truly global. As the United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen draws closer, governments and CSOs around the world have started advocating for their demands; at times in ways as diverse as the challenges posed by climate change itself.

For example, the president of Maldives and his Cabinet wore scuba gear and used hand signals at an underwater meeting on 17 October 2009, to highlight the threat climate change poses to the archipelago nation. At the meeting, the Cabinet signed a declaration, which will be presented at the Copenhagen Conference, calling for global cuts in carbon emissions.

The United Nations has also initiated the ‘Seal the Deal’ campaign that aims to galvanize political will and public support for reaching a comprehensive global climate agreement in Copenhagen. Kofi Annan, the former United Nations Secretary General, is spearheading a movement to raise awareness about climate change—and more specifically, to gain support for establishing a global treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol in Copenhagen. To accomplish this, he founded the open source ‘tck tck tck’ campaign, which called on NGOs, climate activists and other groups from around the world to rally people to the cause. More than one million people have already pledged support for forging a global climate treaty.

But this is not all. Many events have been held in preparation of the Copenhagen Summit where serious scientific work was undertaken. Such initiatives have focused mainly on the extent of global warming, level of greenhouse gas emissions, sharing of the climate burden by developed countries, cost of adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change, etc. At the same time, various sectors ranging from agriculture to transport are advocating for their demands and coming up with ‘increasing scientific evidence’ to show that their needs in a rapidly changing world require more attention than of others.

Many regional conferences and summits are also being organized to develop common positions for the Copenhagen Conference and promote cooperation to tackle climate change. For example, from 31 August to 1 September 2009, Nepal hosted a Regional Climate Change Conference titled ‘Kathmandu to Copenhagen’ for South Asian countries, which are considered among the nations most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change.

Likewise, many rights-based groups have emerged on the scene. Foremost among them, women’s rights groups are working to secure a place for gender in the new global commitments on climate change. As this publication highlights, the role of gender is crucial to any understanding of, and adaptation to and mitigation of, the effects of climate change; and women’s voices are the key element in enabling the planet to cope with this phenomenon.

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B Government of Pakistan’s Initiatives Pakistan’s status as a developing country, dependent mainly on agriculture, makes it particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. In addition, like most developing countries, Pakistan does not have adequate monitoring systems for predicting the occurrence of extreme events, or the assessment of possible changes in weather patterns, thus making the task of developing short-term responses or disaster mitigation strategies extremely difficult (GoP 2003). As a result, the country is now on the edge of being deemed at extreme risk from climate change (Maplecroft 2009).

Research on the issue is still in its infancy in Pakistan, and is focused mainly on understanding the past trends and current variabilities. In this context, the Government of Pakistan has started adopting concrete measures to counter the growing threat of climate change (Box 1), though additional resources will be required to materialize these efforts.

Box 1: National Response to Climate Change Obvious threats notwithstanding, the issue of climate change, even though considered to be important, has not generated an adequate public response. However, the Government of Pakistan has started to communicate internationally on the subject and is keen to adhere to international legal instruments on climate change. Pakistan’s government has adopted the following measures in this regard: Formation of Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change as a policy and

review forum. Establishment of Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) to carry out

research on climate change and suggest appropriate adaptation measures. Establishment of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Cell under the

Climate Change Wing of the Ministry of Environment to facilitate approval of CDM projects in the country.

Launching of a mega forestry project worth $240 million for carbon sequestration.

Launching of the Programme for Mountain Areas Conservancy, Pakistan Wetlands Programme and Sustainable Land Management Project to contribute to climate change adaptation.

Source: Pakistan Permanent Mission to the United Nations 2008

Especially during the last couple of years, the government has taken some concrete steps for managing climate change. For example, 2009 was designated as the ‘National Year of the Environment’. Besides the initiatives outlined in Box 6.1, the Ministry of Environment has formed a Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change, which is being coordinated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Pakistan, to provide technical advisory services on issues related to climate change, including national position briefs for international negotiations. Moreover, a Task Force on Climate Change has been formed in the Planning Commission. More recently, a Core Group on Climate Change has also been formed in the Ministry of Environment.

Importantly, the Ministry of Environment—in consultation with the IUCN Pakistan, other relevant ministries and CSOs—is in the process of formulating a comprehensive strategy to cope with the threats posed by climate change. Moreover, a National Sustainable

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Development Strategy (NSDS), which stresses formulating and implementing complementary policies that address both environmental and social issues, has been prepared.

The NSDS identifies climate change as an important area of strategic intervention. It calls for preparing for climate change and its accompanying uncertainties through formulation and implementation of an adaptation strategy, which should highlight the nature and extent of climatic changes, as well as develop plant and animal types and farming systems that are less vulnerable to them. Similarly, Pakistan’s 10th five-year plan (2010-2015) focuses on climate change along with water, air pollution, waste management, deforestation and energy.

At the international level, Pakistan was one of the first signatories to the UNFCC, ratifying it in 1994, and has also ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone, and the Desertification Convention. The country’s top leadership has also accorded due importance to the issue of climate change, especially in the recent past. In January 2009, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani assured a regional conference on climate change that all development plans in the country would consider climate change at the planning and implementation stage. Similarly, National Reconstruction Bureau Chairperson Dr. Asim Hussain, who represented Pakistan at the United Nations Summit on Climate Change in September this year, reaffirmed the government’s commitment to global efforts to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change.

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C Emerging Realities Through a domino effect, climate change can pose serious socioeconomic, health and security threats to human wellbeing. However, because of their variable certainty, these threats also represent opportunities to intervene for prevention, mitigation and adaptation, provided national governments, regional organizations and international institutions rapidly put in place the necessary policies.

Globally, there is a need for recognizing the rights of environmental migrants, as well as the obligations on states in realizing their rights. What is more important, the gender dimension needs to be given due consideration. Advocacy efforts must also be directed towards a more holistic legal framework, so as to ensure the inclusion of right to a healthy environment in legal instruments in relation to environmental law.

Underestimating the capabilities of women—as well as their knowledge, skills and experience—results in their non-inclusion in the decision-making process. Women have traditionally remained engaged in prevention from disasters and, on the basis of that experience, are capable of providing long-term solutions to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change. Therefore, their effective representation must be ensured while designing and executing various development projects. Besides enhancing communities’ resilience to climate change and advocating with those who are the major contributors, Pakistan needs to plan for human security, invest in sustainable livelihoods, give priority to the most vulnerable populations, and adopt adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Given the dearth of data on various aspects of climate change-associated population movement in Pakistan, research is required to identify, quantify and characterize environmentally-induced migrants. In-depth research needs to be undertaken on how, why and where people migrate and what happens to those left behind. Gender-disaggregated data need to be generated to identify potential gender-specific reasons for climate change-related movement.

Because vulnerability to environmental and climatic change depends on a combination of political and socioeconomic factors, it is equally important to enhance the resilience of human and environmental systems, and help people to adapt accordingly. Well-coordinated public-private partnerships (PPPs) are needed to achieve this goal.

Since Pakistan is considered as one of the hardest hit countries by climate change (Shahid 2009), and in past there have been climate-related in-migration, advocacy for increased international cooperation for collective burden sharing of assistance and opening of emigration channels will be imperative. Though the effects of climate change hit many sectors other than the environment, there is a need to focus on some areas on a more urgent basis, such as agriculture and water resources.

To respond to the adverse impacts of climate change, all vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, water and forestry must be identified and specific adaptation strategies should be developed for them. Moreover, a vulnerability analysis of the population in different climatic zones of the country needs to be undertaken and changes expected due to climate change within a certain zone need to be studied. Hence, area-specific planning needs to be undertaken based on gender-sensitive demographic data. GCISC might be able to

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undertake such an analysis in collaboration with National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS), and other academic and research institutions.

There is evidence to suggest that communities are well aware of their environment; they might not label it as ‘climate change’, but they can provide substantial information about the climatic changes that have occurred in the last few decades. Some people in Pakistan have already started changing the way they grow crops, build homes or manage their natural resources in order to adapt to the effects of climate change. Successful adaptation measures could be replicated throughout the country.

For this indigenous knowledge to be part of policy planning, there is a need to focus on communication with all sectors that are affected by climate change. In fact, Pakistan needs a two-way communication channel, lending voice to the community wherever there are best practices to document and simplifying the latest country-specific research on climate change to help people build resilience to it.

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D Towards a Climate Change Strategy for Pakistan No climate change policy will receive the support it needs, either formally in the political arena or at the day-to-day level, unless cultures, values and world perspectives are taken into account from the outset. The reasons are simple. First, not even the most sophisticated science-based information and risk assessments are necessarily received in the same sense as they are understood by those who produce them. Second, policies, in order to be effective, need to take into account the culturally shaped setting that pre-dates the attempt to implement the policies (University of Copenhagen 2009).

Information about climate change and local interpretations of risk assessments are culturally mediated through particular emotional ways of reasoning, typical meaning-making processes, specific conceptions of landscape and climate variability and change, and idiosyncratic notions of mitigation of risk. Local religious and spiritual beliefs, knowledge systems, understanding of nature-society relationships, and values and ethics influence how individuals and communities perceive and respond to climate change.

Research on the role of culture, values and worldviews in both the generation of and responses to climate change should thus become a top priority for Pakistan. The cultural and experiential dimensions of climate change must be integrated with more standard, systems-oriented research on the phenomenon. This conclusion argues for a new, larger role for the social sciences and humanities in addressing the challenges of climate change, and suggests the need for a truly interdisciplinary and integrated research agenda that places climate change in a much deeper societal context.

Transitioning contemporary society to a more sustainable future must occur at many scales—from individual to institutional and governmental—and at many levels—from changes in lifestyles to a re-examination of core values, beliefs and worldviews. Indeed, the language used to discuss human-induced climate change often reflects underlying worldviews. For example, a focus in the political process on greenhouse gas ‘reductions’ and ‘sharing the burden’ reinforces the view that climate change mitigation is an evil that should be avoided as much as possible. On the other hand, a focus on the benefits derived from avoiding the serious impacts of unabated climate change builds worldviews that are much more positive and optimistic.

A societal transformation will be required to meet the climate change challenge, besides overcoming a number of significant constraints and seizing critical opportunities. These include reducing inertia in social and economic systems; building on a growing public desire for government to act on climate change; reducing activities that increase GHG emissions; and enabling the shifts from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society.

The following are some of the major prerequisites for the development of a comprehensive climate change strategy in Pakistan:

A common public perception that we have an issue that needs to be addressed on an urgent basis.

A mutual agreement between various stakeholders that there has to be an equitable sharing of the costs for addressing the issue.

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Realistic and actionable solutions: for example, introduction of technologies that can create a more resource-efficient industry and economy, and development of tools to implement regulations, standards, economic instruments, etc.

Financial support for actions such as research and technology development and deployment, as well as restructuring of the infrastructure.

Willingness of all economic actors to adopt more sustainable lifestyles. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Addressing the climate change challenge must include both ‘adaptation’, to address the inevitable, and ‘mitigation’, to prevent the avoidable (World Bank 2009). However, effective adaptation poses many policy challenges for Pakistan. Responses have to be developed in the face of uncertainties on the timing, location and severity of climate impacts. Looking to the future, the scale of these impacts will be contingent upon global mitigation efforts undertaken in the next few decades. Delayed or limited emission stabilization will necessitate considerably greater investment in risk management and climate change adaptation. These uncertainties need to be factored into the development of adaptation strategies and financing plans.

A climate change ‘adaptation strategy’ for Pakistan may be guided by the following five pillars (World Bank 2009):

1. Investing in knowledge: In a situation of uncertainty, knowledge has high value, and this makes the case for vigorous investment in information and better understanding. Adaptation to climate change is analogous to many other forms of risk management. It requires an assessment of possible threats and opportunities arising from climate variability; and incorporation of the outcomes of such assessments into policy through the appropriate mechanisms.

2. Adopting ‘no-regrets’ approach: No-regrets approaches build resilience to climate risks while generating additional co-benefits. Faced with uncertainty about future risks, no-regrets policies provide a strategy for hedging against climate risks. Issues such as irrigation supplies, healthcare, infrastructure, agriculture technology, disaster preparedness and habitat protection lend themselves to no-regrets adaptation interventions that simultaneously facilitate climate resilience and address current development needs.

3. Focusing on the poor: The poor in Pakistan have limited resources, and their assets and livelihoods are exposed to climate-sensitive factors. They are also most often employed in sectors, such as agriculture, that are exposed to high climate risks. Building resilience of these groups to current climate risks is a difficult challenge given their general lack of representation in various institutions, but one that would generate immediate development dividends as well as reduce future climate vulnerability.

4. Promoting regional cooperation to address common threats: The most severe climate threats (such as glacier retreat and sea level rise) transcend national boundaries. Finding effective solutions for flood control, irrigation and river transport will require cooperation between upper and lower riparian countries.

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This calls for coordinated solutions to jointly solve common problems. Simultaneously, effective regional cooperation through energy trade can also assist in lowering emissions.

5. Maintaining the integrity of environmental services: Recognizing that climate change is a consequence of damaged and diminished eco-services in Pakistan, remedial measures need to be aimed at protecting and restoring ecosystem integrity. Indeed, maintaining ecosystem integrity can provide a cost-effective way of building climate resilience and providing a buffer against climate impacts.

Similarly, a climate change ‘mitigation strategy’ for Pakistan may be guided by the following five pillars (IBRD 2009):

1. Ensuring that the poorest, least resilient social groups who are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change are supported in developing adaptation strategies, so the short-term wellbeing and long-term livelihoods of these vulnerable groups are not unduly compromised. This will include understanding and supporting social safety nets, providing social investment funds to rebuild communities in the advent of natural disasters, and developing weather-linked agriculture insurance schemes customized to reach the poor.

2. Taking into account that impacts are often differentiated by gender. The prevailing lack of equal rights of women to land, irrigation water and access to education renders them especially vulnerable in a future with anticipated increases in pressure on these resources. Women, therefore, may often have a lower adaptive capacity arising from prevailing social inequalities, and are ascribed social and economic roles that lead to increased hardship (for example, through reduced food security or shortage of water resources).

3. Understanding the impacts of mitigation actions on poor people’s livelihoods, through applying social analysis to the design of policies, projects, and new forms of climate action and finance, so that poor people’s assets are protected and they are included in benefit streams created by these new opportunities.

4. Supporting local institutions in helping facilitate adaptation, economic diversification and growth strategies that maintain or increase social resilience and cohesion. The spectre of increasing rural-urban migration, increasing population in urban slums, social unrest, growing unemployment, sense of exclusion and increased conflict can already be witnessed in Pakistan, particularly in the rural areas where fewer job opportunities in agriculture push people to move. While difficult to attribute to human-induced climate change, such examples highlight the possible scale of future issues.

5. Understanding the scope of health impacts caused by climate change and addressing these, including increased incidence of communicable diseases, malnutrition, food-borne illness, heat or cold-related exposure, migration-related negative health effects, mental health, drowning and other impacts on vulnerable groups differentiated by age and gender.

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E Recommendations Pakistan’s pursuit of developing an appropriate and timely response to the challenge of climate change is marred by multiple challenges. On the one hand, existing gender inequalities, high population growth, lack of access to reproductive health services and poverty create hindrances; while, on the other, the expertise and resources required to develop technologies that can rein in climate change are in short supply.

In line with the focus of the Pakistan Supplement, the recommendations have been categorized under the five cross-cutting themes of ‘Gender’, ‘Food’, ‘Water’, ‘Energy’ and ‘Human Security’. The policy recommendations, meant basically for the policymakers, are followed by three separate sets of recommendations for ‘Parliamentarians’, ‘CSOs and NGOs’, and ‘Business and Industry’. Gender-related Recommendations

1. Performing gender analysis to understand the different roles of women and men, in order to integrate gender concerns into environmental planning, monitoring and evaluation through improved data collection.

2. Enhancing women’s meaningful participation in climate change policy planning and execution by increasing their access to voluntary family planning and reproductive health services, besides investing in specialized research on the adverse impacts of climate change on their health.

3. Ensuring equal representation of women and men in all decision-making processes by investing in women’s leadership, and strengthening and scaling up women-led initiatives.

4. Drawing on and valuing women’s unique knowledge of natural resources; acknowledging the critical role that women can play in natural resource management; and using the demonstrated ability of women’s groups to mobilize their communities for responding to the challenges posed by climate change.

5. Creating mechanisms that guarantee women’s equal access to climate change financing; and providing education and training on climate change conditions and opportunities to women.

6. Developing the capacities of women’s networks at the grassroots level to undertake community research and risk mapping, propose action plans, and engage with the government and other stakeholders.

Food -related Recommendations

1. Revising policy guidelines on farming practices to develop heat and drought-tolerant, low water-requiring crop varieties that have shorter growing duration, as well as changing planting schedules to avoid heat stress or water shortage; and encouraging a crop culture that requires minimal or no tillage.

2. Reducing dependence on agro-chemicals (pesticides, weedicides, commercial synthetic fertilizers, etc.); storing and handling of farmyard manures in solid

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rather than liquid form to suppress methane emissions; and composting kitchen and farmyard refuse and other organic materials into valuable organic fertilizer.

3. Improving soil drainage to prevent soil degradation due to water logging and salinity; introducing deep planting in rain-fed areas during pre-rainy season as a soil moisture conservation measure; and promoting bio-saline agriculture in about 14 million hectares of salt-affected wasteland with brackish underground water.

4. Diversifying crops and developing resource-conserving technologies to have significant impacts on incomes of small farmers; improving farmers’ access to inputs and services for increasing agricultural productivity; and providing better climate information to farmers through improved forecasting and early warning systems.

5. Facilitating research to explore genetic solutions for increasing the climate resilience of livestock and introducing alternative feed sources.

6. Enhancing the national food storage capacity; and increasing the shelf life of perishable items through better processing and preservation.

Water-related Recommendations

1. Introducing water harvesting and conservation schemes, including waste water recycling systems for multiple usage of water; rationalizing the use of water in agriculture by encouraging more crop per drop processes; and reducing the use of river water in cities by encouraging urban desalination, recycling and reuse.

2. Constructing small and medium-sized reservoirs to increase water storage capacity and to capture water from flash floods; and promoting afforestation and reforestation programmes to increase water catchments.

3. Carrying out planning and management work on irrigation schemes with a holistic basin-wide view of natural resources; and developing the concept of agro-climatic zoning and dividing up the Indus Basin into its sub-regions to devise targeted long-term water strategies and programming for each.

4. Promoting judicious use of water by increasing awareness among consumers; strengthening legislation to conserve and protect existing water sources; and establishing systems for monitoring ground and surface water sources.

5. Designing irrigation and water resource development projects in active consultation with communities and providing them more opportunities to play a meaningful role in improving their performance.

Energy-related Recommendations

1. Promoting PPPs; supporting application of best practice codes leading to energy efficiency improvements; and studying and analyzing interrelationships between energy security and climate change.

2. Reducing reliance on fossil fuels, especially oil and coal, and increasing reliance on renewable sources of energy, especially wind, solar and advanced (non-food)

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bio-fuels; promoting waste-to-energy programmes as part of the renewable energy efforts; and creating carbon sinks by aggressively promoting forestation programmes to increase forest cover.

3. Establishing mass public transit systems; promoting CNG vehicles for emissions abatement; and introducing measures for improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles and restricting the use of ageing vehicles.

4. Developing national climate technology plans to promote markets for cleaner energy technologies and hastening the phase-out of obsolete technologies; promoting macro-economic and sectoral analysis of the costs and benefits of different policy options to foster low GHG emissions; and taking steps to reduce electricity distribution losses.

Human Security-related Recommendations

1. Studying and analyzing patterns of diseases and public health variables due to climate change; and designing diagnostic tools that can detect new infectious diseases.

2. Improving sanitation, hygiene and health through implementation of the National Sanitation Policy and other related policy instruments.

3. Conducting research to understand the specific causes and consequences of climate change-induced migration; and developing locally-specific, case study research that highlights how the drivers of existing migration streams might be impacted by or sensitive to climate change.

4. Developing climate sensitive development policies that build local resilience and adaptive capacity, reducing the need for the poor to migrate from affected areas; ensuring the protection of migrants who move from rural to urban areas or rural to rural areas; and mitigating the effects of overcrowding in major cities.

Recommendations for Parliamentarians

1. Allocating national budget resources to climate change initiatives; mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national planning; and contributing to the establishment of national and local climate change agendas through mobilizing a genuinely inclusive civil society process at all levels.

2. Participating in awareness-raising meetings on climate change and developing skills on how to advocate more effectively for legal and policy frameworks to better address climate change issues.

3. Holding national and global institutions and the private sector accountable for their actions, and ensuring that they respond to environmental concerns.

4. Contributing to the development of NAPA, ensuring that the issues of the most vulnerable sections of population (such as women) are given due consideration.

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5. Taking action at constituency level on climate change, learning from local experiences; and ensuring that the gains at the global level are translated into concrete benefits at the national and local level.

Recommendations for CSOs and NGOs

1. Supporting communities and local governments in specific geographical zones to develop integrated approaches to climate change, and facilitating dialogue between all stakeholders.

2. Facilitating the government in the development of policy and legal instruments by promoting institution-building and good governance; providing information to enable parliamentarians to become better informed on climate change issues; and assisting parliamentarians in the preparation of NAPA.

3. Establishing an indigenous body of knowledge to promote independent research on climate change with a focus on gender, increase knowledge sharing, and develop alliances and partnerships.

4. Allocating adequate resources for investment in climate change-related initiatives, in particular local adaptation strategies; and developing tools for action for parliamentarians, policymakers and businesses.

Recommendations for Business and Industry

1. Forging a new climate change agreement based on a shared vision and containing a clear regulatory framework; and developing a portfolio of fiscal instruments aimed at internalizing sustainability impacts in trade treaties.

2. Encouraging the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector to invest in cleaner technologies.

3. Developing an effective compliance system to enable transparent and verifiable comparison of climate change efforts; and working with international accounting standard setters to develop a universally applicable climate change reporting standard.

Besides these recommendations, two issues are particularly relevant to Pakistan and they would ultimately determine how the country braces for the challenges posed by climate change. First, Pakistan is a large country in terms of population, but the population density varies from one geographical region to another. As shown in Appendix 4, Balochistan’s population density in 2007 was 23, while that of Punjab was 429. According to the same projection, Balochistan’s population density in 2050 will increase to 40, while that of Punjab to 764.

At the same time, Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest province in terms of area, and is also the most disaster-prone and the least developed. In addition, a development project costs much higher in Balochistan, mainly due to the lack of infrastructure, than in other provinces. If the federal government allocates funds only on the basis of population, Balochistan may not get enough resources to cater to its environmental needs. This issue

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can perhaps be better addressed by carrying out a vulnerability assessment of the entire country and then allocating resources on the basis of it.

Second, despite a few recent good studies (LEAD Pakistan 2008; Hathaway and Kugelman 2009), there is a dearth of climate change-specific data on Pakistan, and a general lack of understanding about the complex interaction between climate change, women, population and environmental degradation. Therefore, an effective climate change strategy for Pakistan would require multi-disciplinary action-based research involving all stakeholders: academic and research institutions, and other organizations from public, private and voluntary sectors.

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Bibliographic References Overview Adger, W.N. and Tompkins, E.L. January 2003. Building Resilience to Climate Change through Adaptive Management of Natural Resources (Working Paper 27). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia: Norwich, UK.

Ahmad, S. Bari, A. and Muhammad, A. 2003. ‘Climate Change and Water Resources of Pakistan: Impact, Vulnerabilities, Coping Mechanisms’ in Proceedings of the year end Workshop on Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia: Kathmandu, Nepal.

Ahmed, S. and Patel, P. 28 November 2007. ‘Managing Climate Change’ in The Daily Star: Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Akhter, M. 31 July 2008. ‘User-value and natural resources’ in Daily Times: Lahore, Pakistan.

Alam, M. 6 May 2009. ‘Pakistan may face exceptional climate change’ in Dawn: Karachi, Pakistan.

Bhadwal, S. and Kelkar, U. 2007. South Asian Regional Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Implications for Human Development (Occasional Paper for United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report 2007/08). The Energy and Resources Institute: New Delhi, India.

Drexhage, J. 2006. International Union for Conservation of Nature Climate Change Situation (Analysis: Final Report). International Institute for Sustainable Development and IUCN: Gland, Switzerland.

Eyles, J. and Sharma, R. June 2001. Infectious Diseases and Global Change: Threats to Human Health and Security. Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS): Victoria, Canada.

Farooq, A.B. and Khan, A.H. 2004. ‘Climate Change Perspective in Pakistan’ in Proceedings of the Workshop on Capacity Building on Global Change Research: Islamabad, Pakistan.

Farooqi, A. 2006. Injudicious Agricultural Practices are a Source of Breeding Environmental Problems in Pakistan. University of Plymouth: Plymouth, UK.

GoP (Government of Pakistan). 2001. Environmental challenges and responses. Ministry of Environment: Islamabad, Pakistan.

GoP. 2007. Pakistan Economic Survey 2006-2007. Ministry of Finance: Islamabad, Pakistan.

GoP. 2008a. Pakistan Economic Survey 2007-2008. Ministry of Finance: Islamabad, Pakistan.

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Appendix 1: A Brief History of Climate Change

As the UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen approaches, BBC News environment correspondent Richard Black traces key milestones, scientific discoveries, technical innovations and political action: 1712: British ironmonger Thomas Newcomen invents the first widely used steam engine, paving the way for the Industrial Revolution and industrial scale use of coal.

1800: World population reaches one billion.

1824: French physicist Joseph Fourier describes the Earth’s natural “greenhouse effect”. He writes: “The temperature [of the Earth] can be augmented by the interposition of the atmosphere, because heat in the state of light finds less resistance in penetrating the air, than in re-passing into the air when converted into non-luminous heat.”

1861: Irish physicist John Tyndall shows that water vapour and certain other gases create the greenhouse effect. “This aqueous vapour is a blanket more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man,” he concludes. More than a century later, he is honoured by having a prominent UK climate research organization—the Tyndall Centre—named after him.

1886: Karl Benz unveils the Motorwagen, often regarded as the first true automobile.

1896: Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius concludes that industrial-age coal burning will enhance the natural greenhouse effect. He suggests this might be beneficial for future generations. His conclusions on the likely size of the “man-made greenhouse” are in the same ballpark—a few degrees Celsius for a doubling of CO2—as modern-day climate models.

1900: Another Swede, Knut Angstrom, discovers that even at the tiny concentrations found in the atmosphere, CO2 strongly absorbs parts of the infrared spectrum. Though he does not realize the significance, Angstrom has shown that a trace gas can produce greenhouse warming.

1927: Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry reach one billion tons per year.

1930: Human population reaches two billion.

1938: Using records from 147 weather stations around the world, British engineer Guy Callendar shows that temperatures had risen over the previous century. He also shows that CO2 concentrations had increased over the same period and suggests this caused the warming. The ‘Callendar effect’ is widely dismissed by meteorologists.

1955: Using a new generation of equipment, including early computers, US researcher Gilbert Plass analyzes in detail the infrared absorption of various gases. He concludes that doubling CO2 concentrations would increase temperatures by 3-4 degrees Celsius.

1957: US oceanographer Roger Revelle and chemist Hans Suess show that seawater will not absorb all the additional CO2 entering the atmosphere, as many had assumed. Revelle writes: “Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical

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experiment...”

1958: Using equipment he had developed himself, Charles David (Dave) Keeling begins systematic measurements of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa in Hawaii and in Antarctica. Within four years, the project, which continues today, provides the first unequivocal proof that CO2 concentrations are rising.

1960: Human population reaches three billion.

1965: A US President’s Advisory Committee panel warns that the greenhouse effect is a matter of “real concern”.

1972: First UN environment conference, in Stockholm. Climate change hardly registers on the agenda, which centres on issues such as chemical pollution, atomic bomb testing and whaling. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is formed as a result.

1975: Human population reaches four billion.

1975: US scientist Wallace Broecker puts the term “global warming” into the public domain in the title of a scientific paper.

1987: Human population reaches five billion

1987: Montreal Protocol agreed, restricting chemicals that damage the ozone layer. Though not established with climate change in mind, it has had a greater impact on greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol.

1988: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed to collate and assess evidence on climate change.

1989: UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher warns in a speech to the UN that “We are seeing a vast increase in the amount of carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere... The result is that change in future is likely to be more fundamental and more widespread than anything we have known hitherto.” She calls for a global treaty on climate change.

1989: Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry reach six billion tons per year.

1990: The IPCC produces its First Assessment Report. It concludes that temperatures have risen by 0.3-0.6 degree Celsius over the last century, that humanity’s emissions are adding to the atmosphere’s natural complement of greenhouse gases, and that the addition would be expected to result in warming.

1992: At the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, governments agree the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Its key objective is “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Developed countries agree to return their emissions to 1990 levels.

1995: The IPCC’s Second Assessment Report concludes that the balance of evidence suggests “a discernible human influence” on the Earth's climate. This has been called the first definitive statement that humans are responsible for climate change.

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1997: The Kyoto Protocol agreed. Developed nations pledge to reduce emissions by an average of 5% by the period 2008-2012, with wide variations on targets for individual countries. The US Senate immediately declares it will not ratify the treaty.

1998: Strong El Nino conditions combine with global warming to produce the warmest year on record. The average global temperature reached 0.52 degree Celsius above the mean for the period 1961-1990 (a commonly-used baseline).

1998: Publication of the controversial ‘hockey stick’ graph indicating that modern-day temperature rise in the northern hemisphere is unusual compared with the last 1,000 years. The work would later be the subject of two enquiries instigated by the US Congress.

1999: Human population reaches six billion.

2001: President George W. Bush removes the US from the Kyoto process.

2001: The IPCC’s Third Assessment Report finds “new and stronger evidence” that humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases are the main cause of the warming seen in the second half of the 20th Century.

2005: The Kyoto Protocol becomes international law for those countries still inside it.

2006: The Stern Review concludes that climate change could damage global GDP by up to 20% if left unchecked, but curbing it would cost about 1% of global GDP.

2006: Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry reach eight billion tons per year.

2007: The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report concludes it is more than 90% likely that humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for modern-day climate change.

2007: The IPCC and former US Vice-President Al Gore receive the Nobel Peace Prize “for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.”

2007: At UN negotiations in Bali, governments agree the two-year ‘Bali Roadmap’ aimed at hammering out a new global treaty by the end of 2009.

2008: Half a century after beginning observations at Mauna Loa, the Keeling Project shows that CO2 concentrations have risen from 315 parts per million (ppm) in 1958 to 380ppm in 2008.

2008: Two months before taking office, incoming US president Barack Obama pledges to “engage vigorously” with the rest of the world on climate change.

2009: China overtakes the US as the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter, though the US remains well ahead on a per-capita basis.

2009: 192 governments convene for the UN climate summit in Copenhagen.

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Appendix 2: Impacts of Climate Change on the MDGs MDG 1 (Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger): Agricultural production and food security, access to clean and abundant water resources, and gainful employment that underpin the solution to extreme poverty and hunger are vulnerable to climate change.

MDG 2 (Achieve Universal Primary Education): Climate change stresses put additional burdens on agricultural production and other subsistence activities such as water collection, which may burden families enough to remove children from schools. Livelihood activities must become more resilient to future climate for education goals to be met. Climate change also threatens to destroy infrastructure (for example, schools) and increase the displacement and migration of families, thus disrupting and limiting education opportunities.

MDG 3 (Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women): Women, the majority of the world’s poor, are most vulnerable to climate change. Their traditional roles as the primary users and managers of natural resources, primary caregivers and unpaid labourers mean that they are involved in and dependent on resources that are put most at risk by climate change. Moreover, women lack rights and access to resources and information vital to overcoming the challenges posed by climate change.

MDG 4 (Reduce Child Mortality): Climate change will worsen health primarily through increased vulnerability to poor health due to reduced food security and water security; water-borne diseases associated with reduced water quality due to floods and drought; more favourable conditions for the spread of vector-borne and air-borne diseases; and the direct link between temperatures and heat stress.

MDG 5 (Improve Maternal Health): Climate change will worsen health primarily through increased vulnerability to poor health due to reduced food security and water security; water-borne diseases associated with reduced water quality due to floods and drought; more favourable conditions for the spread of vector-borne and air-borne diseases; and the direct link between temperatures and heat stress.

MDG 6 (Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases): Climate change will worsen health primarily through increased vulnerability to poor health due to reduced food security and water security; water-borne diseases associated with reduced water quality due to floods and drought; more favourable conditions for the spread of vector-borne and air-borne diseases; and the direct link between temperatures and heat stress.

MDG 7 (Ensure Environmental Sustainability): Climate change threatens environmental sustainability because it will cause fundamental alterations in ecosystem relationships, change the quality and quantity of available natural resources, and reduce ecosystem productivity. The poor depend on these resources for their day-to-day survival and livelihoods in many parts of the developing world.

MDG 8 (Develop a Global Partnership for Development): Climate change threatens to exacerbate current challenges to the achievement of the MDGs. Therefore, funding for development and adaptation must be greatly increased to meet the needs of the poor.

Source: UNDP 2009a

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Appendix 3: Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Total Emissions (Carbon Dioxide in Metric Tons)

CO2 Emissions Annual Change (Percentage)

CO2 Emissions Share of World

(Percentage)

Population Share (Percentage)

CO2 Emissions Per Capita

(Metric Tons) Emitters 1990 2004 1990-2004 1990 2004 2004 1990 2004 United States 4,818.3 6,045.8 1.8 21.2 20.9 4.6 19.3 20.6 China 2,398.9 5,007.1 7.8 10.6 17.3 20.2 2.1 3.8 Russian Federation 1,984.1 1,524.1 -1.9 8.8 5.3 2.2 13.4 10.6

India 681.7 1,342.1 6.9 3.0 4.6 17.4 0.8 1.2 Iran 218.3 433.3 7.0 1.0 1.5 1.1 4.0 6.4 Pakistan 68.0 125.6 6.0 0.3 0.4 2.4 0.6 0.8 Nepal 0.6 3.0 27.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 Maldives 0.2 0.7 26.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 Bhutan 0.1 0.4 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Global Aggregates High Income (OECD) 10,055.4 12,137.5 1.5 44.3 41.9 14.3 12.0 13.2

South Asia 990.7 1,954.6 7.0 4.4 6.7 24.4 0.8 1.3 Medium Human Development

5,944.4 10,215.2 5.1 26.2 35.2 65.1 1.8 2.5

World 22,702.5 28,982.7 2.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.3 4.5 Source: UNDP 2007

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Appendix 4: Dominant Physical Features and Land Use

Serial No.

Dominant Physical Features/Land Use

Province/ Region/District

Area (in Square km)

Population Population Density 1998 2007 2050 1998 2007 2050

Gilgit-Baltistan 76,928 870,347 1,036,517 1,845,506 11 13 24 1 High Alpine/Grazing

Pastures/Snow Ghizer 9,635 120,218 143,170 254,913 12 15 26

2 High Alpine/Grazing Pastures/Snow

Gilgit 26,300 243,324 289,780 515,950 9 11 20

3 High Alpine/Grazing Pastures/Snow

Astore 8,657 71,666 85,349 151,962 8 10 18

4 High Alpine/Cold Desert

Ghanche 6,400 88,366 105,237 187,373 14 16 29

5 High Alpine/Cold Desert

Skardu 15,000 214,848 255,868 455,569 14 17 30

6 High Alpine/Cold Desert

Diamer 10,936 131,925 157,113 279,737 12 14 26

AJK 13,297 3,082,501 3,671,023 6,536,212 232 276 492 1 High Alpine

Pastures/Temperate Neelum 3,621 106,778 127,164 226,415 29 35 63

2 High Alpine Pastures/Temperate

Muzaffarabad 2,496 638,973 760,968 1,354,894 256 305 543

3 High Alpine Pastures/Temperate

Bagh 1,368 393,415 468,527 834,207 288 342 610

4 High Alpine Pastures/Temperate

Poonch 855 411,035 489,511 871,569 481 573 1,019

5 High Alpine Pastures/Temperate

Sudhnoti 569 334,091 397,877 708,415 587 699 1,245

6 High Alpine Kotli 1,862 563,094 670,602 1,193,999 302 360 641

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Pastures/Temperate 7 Temperate Mirpur 1,010 333,482 397,152 707,124 330 393 700 8 Temperate Bhimber 1,516 301,633 359,222 639,590 199 237 422 NWFP 74,521 17,735,912 21,122,118 37,607,673 238 283 505 1 High Alpine/Grazing

Pastures/Snow Chitral 14,850 318,689 379,534 675,756 21 26 46

2 High Alpine/ Temperate

Upper Dir 3,699 575,858 685,803 1,221,064 156 185 330

3 High Alpine/ Temperate

Swat 5,337 1,257,602 1,497,708 2,666,651 236 281 500

4 Temperate Kohistan 7,492 472,570 562,795 1,002,049 63 75 134 5 Temperate Lower Dir 1,582 717,649 854,665 1,521,721 454 540 962 6 Temperate Shangla 1,586 434,563 517,531 921,458 274 326 581 7 Temperate Batagram 1,301 307,278 365,945 651,560 236 281 501 8 Temperate/

Plantations Malakand 952 452,291 538,644 959,049 475 566 1,007

9 Plantations/ Irrigated Agriculture

Mardan 1,632 1,460,100 1,738,868 3,096,033 895 1,065 1,897

10 Plantations/Rain-fed Agriculture

Buner 1,865 506,048 602,665 1,073,037 271 323 575

11 Plantations/Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Mansehra 4,579 1,152,839 1,372,943 2,444,509 252 300 534

12 Plantations/Irrigated Agriculture

Charsadda 996 1,022,364 1,217,558 2,167,846 1,026 1,222 2,177

13 Plantations/Irrigated Agriculture

Nowshera 1,748 874,373 1,041,312 1,854,042 500 596 1,061

14 Irrigated Agriculture Swabi 1,543 1,026,804 1,222,845 2,177,261 665 793 1,411

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15 Plantations/Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Haripur 1,725 692,228 824,391 1,467,818 401 478 851

16 Temperate/Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Abbottabad 1,967 880,666 1,048,806 1,867,386 448 533 949

17 Urban/Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Peshawar 1,257 2,019,118 2,404,615 4,281,388 1,606 1,913 3,406

18 Rain-fed Agriculture Kohat 2,545 562,644 670,066 1,193,044 221 263 469 19 Rain-fed Agriculture Hangu 1,097 314,529 374,580 666,935 287 341 608 20 Rain-fed Agriculture Karak 3,372 430,796 513,045 913,471 128 152 271 21 Rain-fed Agriculture Bannu 1,227 675,667 804,668 1,432,701 551 656 1,168 22 Rain-fed Agriculture Lakki Marwat 3,164 490,025 583,582 1,039,061 155 184 328 23 Irrigated and Rain-

fed Agriculture Tank 1,679 238,216 283,697 505,119 142 169 301

24 Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Dera Ismail Khan 7,326 852,995 1,015,852 1,808,712 116 139 247

FATA and FR 27,220 3,179,173 3,786,152 6,741,198 117 139 248 1 Arid Mountains/

Rain-fed Agriculture Bajaur 1,290 595,227 708,870 1,262,134 461 550 978

2 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

Mohmand 2,296 334,453 398,308 709,183 146 173 309

3 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

Khyber 2,576 546,730 651,114 1,159,300 212 253 450

4 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

Orakzai 1,538 225,441 268,483 478,031 147 175 311

5 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

Khurram 3,380 448,310 533,903 950,608 133 158 281

6 Arid Mountains/ North Waziristan 4,707 361,246 430,216 765,995 77 91 163

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Rain-fed Agriculture 7 Arid Mountains/

Rain-fed Agriculture South Waziristan 6,620 429,841 511,908 911,446 65 77 138

8 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

FR Bannu 745 19,550 23,283 41,454 26 31 56

9 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

FR Dera Ismail Khan

2,008 39,373 46,890 83,487 20 23 42

10 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

FR Kohat 446 90,806 108,143 192,547 204 242 432

11 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

FR Lakki Marwat 132 6,955 8,283 14,748 53 63 112

12 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

FR Peshawar 261 53,902 64,193 114,295 207 246 438

13 Arid Mountains/ Rain-fed Agriculture

FR Tank 1,221 27,339 32,559 57,970 22 27 47

ISLAMABAD 906 805,235 958,973 1,707,441 889 1,058 1,885 PUNJAB 208,305 75,031,290 89,356,540 159,098,231 360 429 764 1 Rain-fed Agriculture/

Shrub-lands Attock 6,857 1,274,935 1,518,350 2,703,404 186 221 394

2 Urban/Rain-fed Agriculture

Rawalpindi 5,286 3,363,911 4,006,161 7,132,921 636 758 1,349

3 Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Mianwali 5,840 1,056,620 1,258,354 2,240,484 181 215 384

4 Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Bhakkar 8,153 1,051,456 1,252,204 2,229,534 129 154 273

5 Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Jhelum 3,587 936,957 1,115,844 1,986,747 261 311 554

6 Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Gujrat 3,192 2,048,008 2,439,021 4,342,648 642 764 1,360

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7 Rain-fed Agriculture Sialkot 3,016 2,723,481 3,243,458 5,774,937 903 1,075 1,915 8 Urban/Irrigated and

Rain-fed Agriculture Gujranwala 3,622 3,400,940 4,050,260 7,211,439 939 1,118 1,991

9 Irrigated Agriculture Mandi Bahauddin 2,673 1,160,552 1,382,129 2,460,864 434 517 921 10 Irrigated Agriculture Sargodha 5,854 2,665,979 3,174,978 5,653,009 455 542 966 11 Irrigated and Rain-

fed Agriculture Khushab 6,511 905,711 1,078,633 1,920,492 139 166 295

12 Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture/ Shrub-lands

Chakwal 6,524 1,083,725 1,290,634 2,297,958 166 198 352

13 Desert/Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture

Layyah 6,291 1,120,951 1,334,967 2,376,893 178 212 378

14 Irrigated Agriculture Hafizabad 2,367 832,980 992,016 1,766,272 352 419 746 15 Desert/Irrigated and

Rain-fed Agriculture Jhang 8,809 2,834,545 3,375,727 6,010,440 322 383 682

16 Irrigated Agriculture Toba Tek Singh 3,252 1,621,593 1,931,194 3,438,466 499 594 1,057 17 Urban/Irrigated

Agriculture Faisalabad 5,856 5,429,547 6,466,176 11,512,948 927 1,104 1,966

18 Irrigated Agriculture Nankana Sahib 2,960 1,410,000 1,679,202 2,989,799 476 567 1,010 19 Irrigated Agriculture Sheikhupura 5,960 3,321,029 3,955,092 7,041,993 557 664 1,182 20 Rain-fed Agriculture Narowal 2,337 1,265,097 1,506,634 2,682,543 541 645 1,148 21 Urban/Irrigated

Agriculture Lahore 1,772 6,318,745 7,525,143 13,398,425 3,566 4,247 7,561

22 Irrigated Agriculture Kasur 3,995 2,375,875 2,829,486 5,037,865 595 708 1,261 23 Irrigated Agriculture Sahiwal 3,201 1,843,194 2,195,103 3,908,355 576 686 1,221 24 Irrigated Agriculture Khanewal 4,349 2,068,490 2,463,414 4,386,078 476 566 1,009 25 Irrigated Agriculture Muzaffargarh 8,249 2,635,903 3,139,159 5,589,235 320 381 678 26 Irrigated and Rain- Dera Ghazi Khan 11,922 1,643,118 1,956,828 3,484,109 138 164 292

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fed Agriculture 27 Irrigated and Rain-

fed Agriculture Rajanpur 12,319 1,103,618 1,314,325 2,340,139 90 107 190

28 Urban/Irrigated Agriculture

Multan 3,720 3,116,851 3,711,932 6,609,049 838 998 1,777

29 Desert/Irrigated Agriculture

Lodhran 2,778 1,171,800 1,395,524 2,484,714 422 502 894

30 Irrigated Agriculture Vehari 4,364 2,090,416 2,489,526 4,432,571 479 570 1,016 31 Irrigated Agriculture Pakpattan 2,724 1,286,680 1,532,338 2,728,309 472 563 1,002 32 Irrigated Agriculture Okara 4,377 2,232,992 2,659,323 4,734,892 510 608 1,082 33 Desert/Irrigated

Agriculture Bahawalnagar 8,878 2,061,447 2,455,026 4,371,144 232 277 492

34 Desert/Irrigated Agriculture

Bahawalpur 24,830 2,433,091 2,897,626 5,159,187 98 117 208

35 Desert/Irrigated Agriculture

Rahim Yar Khan 11,880 3,141,053 3,740,754 6,660,368 264 315 561

BALOCHISTAN 347,190 6,563,885 7,817,086 13,918,227 19 23 40 1 Arid Mountain/

Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Zhob 20,297 275,142 327,673 583,418 14 16 29

2 Arid Mountain/ Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Musakhel 5,728 134,056 159,650 284,256 23 28 50

3 Arid Mountain/ Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Killa Saifullah 6,831 193,553 230,507 410,415 28 34 60

4 Arid Mountain/ Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Pishin 7,819 367,183 437,287 778,584 47 56 100

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5 Arid Mountain/ Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Killa Abdullah 3,293 370,269 440,962 785,128 112 134 238

6 Arid Mountain/ Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Loralai 9,830 295,555 351,983 626,702 30 36 64

7 Arid Mountain/ Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Barkhan 3,514 103,545 123,314 219,559 29 35 62

8 Arid Mountain/ Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Quetta 2,653 744,802 887,002 1,579,297 281 334 595

9 Arid Mountain/ Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Ziarat 1,489 33,340 39,705 70,695 22 27 47

10 Arid Mountain/ Snowmelt or Rain-fed Agriculture

Kohlu 7,610 99,846 118,909 211,716 13 16 28

11 Arid Plains/ Mountains

Sibi 7,796 180,398 214,840 382,520 23 28 49

12 Arid Plains/ Mountains

Mastung 5,896 179,784 214,109 381,219 30 36 65

13 Desert Chagai/Naushki 50,545 202,564 241,238 429,522 4 5 8 14 Arid Plains/

Mountains Kalat 6,622 237,834 283,242 504,309 36 43 76

15 Arid Plains/Desert Bolan/Mach 7,499 288,056 343,053 610,801 38 46 81 16 Arid Plains/Desert/

Mountains Dera Bugti 10,160 181,310 215,926 384,454 18 21 38

17 Arid Plains/Desert/ Mountains

Jhal Magsi 3,615 109,941 130,931 233,122 30 36 64

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18 Arid Plains/Desert/ Mountains

Jaffarabad 2,445 432,817 515,452 917,756 177 211 375

19 Arid Plains/Desert/ Irrigated Agriculture

Nasirabad 3,387 245,894 292,841 521,400 73 86 154

20 Arid Plains/Desert/ Mountains

Khuzdar 35,380 417,466 497,170 885,205 12 14 25

21 Arid Plains/Desert Kharan 48,051 206,909 246,413 438,735 4 5 9 22 Arid Plains/Desert/

Mountains Panjgur 16,891 234,051 278,737 496,288 14 17 29

23 Arid Plains/Desert/ Mountains

Awaran 29,510 118,173 140,735 250,577 4 5 8

24 Arid Plains/Coast/ Coastal Mountains

Lasbela 15,153 312,695 372,396 663,046 21 25 44

25 Arid Plains/Coastal Mountains

Turbat/Kech 22,539 413,204 492,094 876,168 18 22 39

26 Arid Plains/Coast/ Coastal Mountains

Gwadar 12,637 185,498 220,914 393,335 15 17 31

SINDH 135,306 30,439,893 36,251,590 64,545,513 225 268 477 1 Irrigated Agriculture/

Riverine/Arid Mountains

Sukkur 5,165 908,373 1,081,803 1,926,137 176 209 373

2 Irrigated Agriculture/ Riverine/Desert

Ghotki 6,083 970,549 1,155,850 2,057,976 160 190 338

3-4 Irrigated Agriculture/ Desert

Jacobabad and Kashmore

5,278 1,425,572 1,697,747 3,022,819 270 322 573

5 Irrigated Agriculture/ Desert/Arid Mountain

Shikarpur 2,512 880,438 1,048,534 1,866,903 350 417 743

6-7 Irrigated Agriculture/ Larkana and 7,423 1,927,066 2,294,989 4,086,199 260 309 550

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Riverine Qambar 8 Irrigated Agriculture/

Riverine Khairpur 15,910 1,546,587 1,841,867 3,279,422 97 116 206

9-10 Irrigated Agriculture/ Riverine

Dadu and Jamshoro

19,070 1,688,811 2,011,245 3,580,997 89 105 188

11 Irrigated Agriculture/ Riverine

Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto

4,502 1,071,533 1,276,114 2,272,105 238 283 505

12 Irrigated Agriculture/ Desert

Sanghar 10,728 1,453,028 1,730,445 3,081,037 135 161 287

13 Irrigated Agriculture/ Desert

Naushero Feroze 2,945 1,087,571 1,295,214 2,306,113 369 440 783

14-17 Urban/Irrigated Agriculture

Hyderabad, Matiari, Tando Allahyar and Tando Muhammad Khan

5,519 2,891,488 3,443,542 6,131,184 524 624 1,111

18-19 Urban/Irrigated Agriculture/Desert

Mirpur Khas and Umerkot

2,925 1,569,030 1,868,595 3,327,011 536 639 1,137

20 Urban/Coastal Karachi 3,527 9,856,318 11,738,123 20,899,584 2,795 3,328 5,926 21 Coastal/Agriculture Thatta 17,355 1,113,194 1,325,729 2,360,444 64 76 136 22 Coastal/Agriculture Badin 6,726 1,136,044 1,352,942 2,408,896 169 201 358 23 Desert Tharparkar 19,638 914,291 1,088,851 1,938,686 47 55 99

Source: Prepared by author of Chapter 2

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Appendix 5: Implications of Inequality

MDG Effects of Climate Change Implications (Especially for Women) 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

The main solutions proposed to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger may be affected by and impede, among others, agricultural subsistence; commercial production; food security; access to safe drinking water; and use of forests.

Loss of plant and domestic animal species used by women to ensure that their families are fed.

Drop in production of cereals and basic grains due to droughts and floods.

Reduction, mobilization or disappearance of marine species used by women as part of their diet and as a productive activity.

In many parts of the world, women are responsible for agricultural production, and climate changes could affect production and crop susceptibility to disease. This will not only reduce productivity, but will increase the burden on women.

Many women collect forest products and use them for fuel, food, medicines or food for livestock; the reduction or disappearance of these products endangers their own and their families’ welfare and quality of life.

2. Achieve universal primary education

Climate change increases the work of agricultural production and other subsistence activities such as collecting water and firewood, which could put pressure on families to take their children out of school. Increased migration of families because of extreme climate changes and disasters could interrupt and limit educational opportunities.

It is generally women and girls who are responsible for collecting water and firewood. Extending the time they need for these tasks puts their ability to attend school at risk.

According to UNHCR, 80% of the world’s refugees are women and children, which is one reason why the younger generations have limited access to education. A study by the IPCC in 2006 calculated that, by 2050, the number of possible climate change refugees could reach 150 million.

As men migrate more often than women, many households are headed by women and need girls to help out with family work, preventing them from attending school.

3. Promote gender equality and empower women

Deaths and injuries are effects of extreme climate events such as floods, landslides and storms, and they may affect women and men in different

In different regions of the world, restrictions on the independence and empowerment of women hamper their access to shelter or medical care during cyclones, earthquakes and floods.

Loss of natural resources and agricultural productivity increases

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ways, depending on their independence and the means they have at their disposal to ensure their own safety.

women’s workload and leaves them less time to participate in decision-making processes, and conservation and income-generating activities.

4. Reduce infant mortality & 5. Improve maternal health

Climate change will harm health because it will heighten people’s vulnerability to diseases caused by poor nutrition, poor quality water, increase in vectors, and more favourable conditions for spreading viruses associated with temperature and heat.

Due to women’s traditional role of taking care of family health, their workload will increase and so will their probability of catching infectious diseases.

Loss of medicinal plants used by women impedes their traditional capacity to treat ailments.

Pregnant women are particularly susceptible to water-borne diseases and malaria. Anaemia, as an effect of malaria, causes one-quarter of maternal mortality.

The high index of mortality of mothers/women during disasters causes an increase in infant mortality and more children to be orphaned.

6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

In less developed countries, the poorest households affected by HIV/AIDS have fewer resources to adapt to the effects of climate change. For example, it is harder for households headed by women and with family members suffering from AIDS to adopt new crop strategies or rear cattle. Increase in climate change-related disasters has consequences that add to the risk of the spread of HIV/AIDS.

In less developed countries, the poorest households affected by HIV/AIDS have fewer resources to adapt to the effects of climate change. For example, the need to adopt new strategies for crops or cattle rearing is more acute for households headed by women and with family members suffering from AIDS.

Post-disaster increase in the number of girls getting married at an early age, school dropouts, sexual harassment, trafficking in women and prostitution with more risk of transmitting sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV/AIDS.

Because families are separated and people are forced to crowd together, migration following climate change increases the risk of HIV/AIDS infection.

7. Ensure environmental sustainability

Climate change causes species extinction, changes in their composition, alterations in symbiotic relationships and trophic chains, and other phenomena. Such alterations change the quantity and the quality of

Without secure access to and control over natural resources (land, water, cattle, trees, etc.), women are less likely than men to be able to confront climate change.

Limited availability of drinking water increases the work of collecting, storing, protecting and distributing it, and has negative impacts on the work done by women.

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available natural resources and reduce the productivity of ecosystems. Climate change affects natural patterns of floods, droughts and glacier recession as well as the polar ice cap.

Measures to adapt to climate change, including those related to combating desertification, generally require long, hard working days.

At all levels (local, national, regional and international), women are not represented or do not participate in decision-making on climate change.

Most policies on climate change do not reflect women’s ideas, needs and priorities.

Decrease in forestry resources used by women; rural women in developing countries collect forest products and use them as fuel, food, medicines or food for their livestock. The reduction or disappearance of these products will have a negative impact on the wellbeing and quality of life for them and their families.

Environmental degradation in areas where women obtain their resources may lead them to illegally exploit resources in protected areas.

8. Create a global development partnership

Climate change increases the challenge of complying with this MDG. There is a need to increase financial resources for adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

Incorporate the gender approach when transferring technology and promoting programmes and projects in order to improve mitigation and adaptation.

The response to climate change to support national adaptation and mitigation efforts must include principles of gender equality and ethnicity. Building capacities and management of South-South and North-South assistance and cooperation are vital for developing adequate responses.

Investment in preventive infrastructure with a gender approach will lower rehabilitation costs.

Source: UNDP 2009b

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Appendix 6: Direct and Indirect Risks of Climate Change and Potential Effects on Women Potential Risks Examples Potential Effects on Women Direct Risks

Increased drought and water shortage

Increased extreme weather events

Morocco had 10 years of drought from 1984 to 2000; northern Kenya experienced four severe droughts between 1983 and 2001. The intensity and quantity of cyclones, hurricanes, floods and heat waves have increased.

Women and girls in developing countries are often the primary collectors, users and managers of water. Decreases in water availability will jeopardize their families’ livelihoods and increase their workloads, putting their capacity to attend school at risk. An analysis of 141 countries in the period 1981 to 2002 found that natural disasters (and their subsequent impacts) on average killed more women than men in societies where women’s economic and social rights are not protected, or they killed women at a younger age than men.

Indirect Risks

Increased epidemics

Loss of species

Decreased crop production

Climate variability played a critical role in malaria epidemics in the East African highlands and accounted for an estimated 70% of variation in recent cholera series in Bangladesh. By 2050, climate change could result in species extinctions ranging from 18 to 35%. In Africa, crop production is expected to decline 20-50% in response to extreme El Niño-like conditions.

Women have less access to medical services than men, and their workloads increase when they have to spend more time caring for the sick. Adopting new strategies for crop production or mobilizing livestock is harder for women-headed and infected households. Women often rely on crop diversity to accommodate climatic variability, but permanent temperature change will reduce agro-biodiversity and traditional medicine options. Rural women in particular are responsible for half of the world’s food production and produce 60-80% of the food in most developing countries. In Africa, the share of women affected by climate-related crop changes ranges from 48% in Burkina Faso to 73% in Congo.

Source: Aguilar 2009

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