HISTORY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CAPE VERDE:1851-2015

LUIS D. RIVERA CUBERO , DR. GREGORY S. JENKINSDEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY

THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITYUNIVERSITY PARK, PA

HURRICANE FRED

WHAT IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE(TC)?

Organize system

Atlantic (Hurricane), Pacific (Typhoon) and Indian (Cyclones) Ocean

Stages African Easterly Waves

Tropical Depression

Tropical Storm

Hurricane

CONDITIONS

Ocean temperature greater than 25 °C (77 °F) which provides an abundance of water vapor to the atmosphere.

Warm, moist air, which supplies amounts of heat as the vapor condenses and fuels the storm

The Coriolis Effect which causes the hurricane to rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere.

SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE

HURRICANE STRUCTURE

OBJECTIVES

Describe the history of tropical cyclones 1851-2015 Explain detailed history of Debbie(1961), Beryl(1982) and Fran(1984) in the Cape Verde

Islands Evaluate Debbie, Beryl and Fran using Weather Research and Forecasting model and compare them to the HURDAT database.

CAPE VERDE

West of Senegal(400 mi)• 10 volcanic islands• Divided in two group

CAPE VERDE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

Hurdat database(1851-2015) Location and intensity

WEATHER, RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (WRF)

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a numerical weather prediction (NWP) and atmospheric simulation system designed for both research and operational application

Model the Genesis of the Tropical cyclones Debbie (1961), Beryl (1982) and Fran (1984). No forecast models in 1961 for hurricane prediction No high resolution forecasts in 1982, 1984

Limited understanding of the evolution of these storms.

WRF-CAPE VERDE GRID FOR SIMULATING TCS

195 east-west points, 159 N-S points 4 km grid spacing over Cape Verde Islands Use NCEP Reanalysis to provide boundary

conditions to the WRF model every 6 hours.

CAPE VERDE 1870-2015

43 Tropical Cyclones

15 storm have pass through the Cape Verde Islands (1892-2015)

17 major Hurricane

12 Hurricanes 14 Tropical Storms

2 Hurricanes 5 Tropical storms 8 Tropical Depression

TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE

Cape Verde (Sep 6 1961) 50 knots 970 mbar Land fall (Ireland, Scotland and Wales) Caused 11 deaths Ireland

HURDAT DATABASE

Tropical Storm

Debbie

WRF GENESIS FORECASTING DEBBIE

TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE

TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE

TROPICAL STORM DEBBIE

TROPICAL STORM BERYL

Cape Verde (August 28-29 1982) 45 knots 989 mbar Heavy rain and gusty winds The islands suffered 115 deaths and 3 million dollars in damage (Wikipedia)

HURDAT DATABASE

Tropical Storm Beryl

WRF GENESIS FORECASTING BERYL

TROPICAL STORM BERYL

TROPICAL STORM FRAN

Cape Verde (Sep 15-17 1984) 45 knots 994 mbar Torrential rainfall and flooding 35 fatalities and 2.8 million (1984 USD)

HURDAT DATABASE

Tropical Storm Fran

WRF GENESIS FORECAST OF FRAN

TROPICAL STORM FRAN

CONCLUSION

Tropical cyclones (Tc) are hazard to Cape Verde Islands 43 Tc 15 Tc impacted directly

Forecasting of Cyclogenesis Limited success (Fran)

Improve Tc Genesis Forecast because the Cape Verde Islands have limited time for preparation

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This work was primary supported the Summer Research Opportunity Program(SROP). Special thanks to my mentor Gregory S. Jenkins for guiding me in the research process. Thanks to Karen Coker for helping me the first month of the program, to Moussa Gueye for helping me in the WRF models and to Ayesha Wilkerson for helping me understand the meteorology field.