Hispanic America 2002 New Orleans April 26, 2002.
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Transcript of Hispanic America 2002 New Orleans April 26, 2002.
![Page 1: Hispanic America 2002 New Orleans April 26, 2002.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062417/5514b663550346d36e8b6438/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Hispanic America Hispanic America 20022002
New Orleans April 26, 2002
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I. The Key Demographics of the Hispanic Electorate
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Ethnicity
3%
5%
6%
7%
8%
11%
60%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Spaniards
Dominicans
South Americans
Cubans
Central Americans
Puerto Ricans
Mexicans
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
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Country of Birth1988
78%
22%
USA
Latin America /Puerto Rico
Univision Poll - 1988
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Country of Birth2001
51%49%
USA
Latin America /Puerto Rico
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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Hispanic Immigrant VotersCitizenship Year
45%
55%
1995-2001
Before 1995
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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National TV News Preference1988
18%
80%
2%
Univision /Telemundo
CBS / ABC / NBC /CNN
No preference
Univision Poll - 1988
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National TV News Preference2000
45%
49%
6%
Univision /Telemundo
CBS / ABC / NBC /CNN
No preference
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
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Age
11%
31%
36%
22%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
65 +
45-64
30-44
18-29
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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Education
22%
26%
52%
HS diploma orless
College grad ormore
Technical school /Some college
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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II. The Mindset of the Hispanic Electorate
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A. The American Dream
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“The United States is the greatest nation on earth.”
8%
13%
76%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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“No matter how poor you start out in this country, you can make it if you work hard.”
6%
82%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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“Owning my own business is an important goal for me.”
22%
14%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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“Owning my own business is an important goal for me.”
49%
77%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
College graduate
Less than highschool graduate
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001Totally/ mostly agree answers
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B. The Discrimination Factor
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“Latinos face serious discrimination in the U.S. that prevents them from getting ahead.”
23%
21%
53%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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“Most employers do not treat their Latino employees fairly.”
24%
43%
29%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Do not agree
Somewhat agree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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C. The “Melting Pot” model may not apply to new Latino immigrants
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“Being part of the Latino or Hispanic community is extremely important to me.”
9%
86%
4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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“Do you prefer to speak English or Spanish at home?”
40%
29%
31% Spanish
English
Both
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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III. The Issues
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Latinos are divided on the primacy of economics or family values
49%
47%
4%
Creating jobs moreimportant
Moral and familyvalues moreimportant
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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Language is a point of differentiation
54%42%
5%
44%
51%
5%
Creating jobs more importantMoral and family values more importantNot sure
English Spanish
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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“Government should do more to help families, even if it means higher taxes.”
30%
20%
46%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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“Government should do more to help families, even if it means higher taxes.”
54%
39%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
55 and older
18-34
Totally/ mostly agree answersAFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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“Prayer is an important part of my daily life.”
8%
82%
9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Do not agree
Somewhatagree
Totally/ mostlyagree
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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Candidate A says that we need to get back to moral values by opposing marriages between people of the same sex and
opposing most types of abortion.Candidate B says that family values include having enough food,
good housing and a decent education and that government should help families with economic problems to provide what is
necessary for their children.
26%
69%
5%
Candidate A
Candidate B
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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Latinos favor increased spending on public education over vouchers.
69%
27%
4%
Publiceducation
Vouchers
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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Latinos favor increasing the minimum wage over a “hands-off” approach to the economy
68%
29%
3%
Increasingminimumwage
"Hands-off onthe ecenomy
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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Candidate A says that the best way to insure a strong economy is to encourage free trade with older countries and that agreements like
NAFTA, the Free Trade Agreement with Mexico, help the United States sell its products to other countries and create jobs here at
home.Candidate B says that free trade means fewer jobs for American
workers and lower pay for the jobs that are left. He says that agreements like NAFTA encourage American companies to move jobs to countries where workers are paid much less than in the
United States.
59%
33%
8%
Candidate A
Candidate B
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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Latinos support a national health insurance program over current system
76%
21%
3%
National healthinsurance
Current system
Not sure
AFL-CIO Poll - 2001
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Latino voters support Amnesty for illegal immigrants
70%
20%
10%
Amnesty
Deportation
Not sure
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
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Latino voters are split on the Abortion issue
44%
41%
15%
Illegal
Legal
Not sure
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
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Latino voters are split on the Death Penalty
42%
40%
18%
Favor
Against
Not sure
Hispanic Trends Poll - 2000
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IV. The Lessons of the 2000 Presidential Campaign
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1996 Presidential ResultsHispanic Voters
7%
21%
72%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Perot
Dole
Clinton
VNS Exit Poll - 1996
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Hispanic Voters 1996 vs. 2000
7
4
0 2 4 6 8
2000
1996
Millions of Voters VNS Exit Polls – 1996/2000
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2000 Presidential ResultsHispanic Voters
3%
62%
35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Nader
Bush
Gore
VNS Exit Poll - 2000
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41
Hispanic Voters1996 vs. 2000
3%
62%
7%
21%
72%
35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Othercandidate
Republicancandidate
Democraticcandidate
1996
2000
VNS Exit Polls – 1996/2000
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Campaign 2000 The GOP Convention and the
Hispanic mindset 234 presidential campaign stories
on the Univision and Telemundo newscasts between 7/24 and 11/5
LAIFA dominates last two weeks of presidential campaign
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V. Recent Elections
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2001 New Jersey Governor’s Race
12%
6%
6%
82%
21%
73%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
BobMenedez
JimMcGreevey
Positive
Negative
Do not recognize
Spanish-dominant voters B&A Poll – 2001
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2001 New Jersey Governor’s Race
28%
53%
72%
47%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
2001
1997 Democraticcandidate
Republicancandidate
NJ Exit Polls
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2001 New York City Mayor’s Race
50%
15%
12%
50%
85%
82%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2001 Mayor
2000Senate
2000Presidential Democratic
candidate
Republicancandidate
NYC Exit Polls
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2002 Texas Democratic Primary for Governor
26%
81%
22%
19%
52%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
March
January DanMorales
TonySanchez
Undecided
B&A Polls – 2001
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VI. Jorge Bush and the Exorcist
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The Personal Image of George W. Bush among Hispanic voters
41%
54%
5%
67%
29%
4%
82%
17%
1%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Positive
Negative
No opinion
November 2000
August 2001 January 2002
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Democrats vs. Republicans
All Latinos Voters On protecting workers’ rights +42 On respecting Latinos +39 On immigration issues +29 On improving education +20
AFL-CIO Poll – 2001
Democratic Advantage
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Democrats in Congress vs. George W. Bush
All Latinos Voters On protecting workers’ rights
+22 On respecting Latinos + 8 On immigration issues + 6 On improving education + 2
AFL-CIO Poll – 2001
Democratic Advantage
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Democrats in Congress vs. George W. Bush
Spanish-dominant Latino Voters On protecting workers’ rights +6 On respecting Latinos -11 On immigration issues - 5 On improving education -10
AFL-CIO Poll – 2001
Democratic Advantage
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The Exorcist 69% of all Hispanic voters know that
President George W. Bush and President Vicente Fox of Mexico are working closely together on important issues.
70% of all Hispanic voters feel that it is very important that Bush and Fox are good friends and are working together on many issues.
AFL-CIO Poll – 2001
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The Hispanic Electorate is one The Hispanic Electorate is one of the key battlegrounds in of the key battlegrounds in
American politics today.American politics today.Parties and candidates that Parties and candidates that best understand its culture best understand its culture and political mindset will and political mindset will benefit substantially in benefit substantially in
upcoming elections.upcoming elections.