Hiroko Kawai, Principal - University of Manitoba · 2020-05-25 · Mega Fleets Trailer OEMs Source:...
Transcript of Hiroko Kawai, Principal - University of Manitoba · 2020-05-25 · Mega Fleets Trailer OEMs Source:...
Transformational Trucking Beyond the Great Recession
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Real Coordination and Collaboration are Key to Innovation
Hiroko Kawai, PrincipalTransportation Practice
www.nacfe.orgwww.rmi.org
Truck Drivers Carry Almost Everything You Need In Your Life
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncz3vK9MZEU&feature=related
High Points
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1. Trucking Industry Is Finally Getting Good, Long Overdue Attention:
2. Identify Real Opportunities to Work with Policy Makers and Regulatory Bodies--Push the Boundaries of Traditional Collaborations and Move Forward with Unconventional Collaboration and Collaboratory
3. Continue to Support and Fund Both Technology R&D (e.g. SuperTruck) and Market Incentives
4. Use the Industry’s Conservatism to Its Advantage and Make Calculated, Well-planned out Transformation
Trucking is the backbone of our economy. But do we really embrace that?
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Life of a Trucker
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... yes, it is the backbone of the economy, and the sector consumed nearly 44B gallons of diesel in 2008!
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Light-Duty Vehicles
61%
Freight Trucks16%
Air9.8%
Shipping 3.0%
Military Use 2.4%
Pipeline Fuel 2.1%Lubricants 0.5%
Recreational Boats 0.7%
Rail 2.0%
Bus 0.9%
Comm
ercial Light Trucks 2.2%
Transportation67 %
Electrical Power2 %
Residential and Commercial
6 %
Industrial25 %
Source: EIA. Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030. Tables 2 and 7. Report #:DOE/EIA-0383(2007). http://www.eia.doe.gov 8/6/07
U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector
What Is Going to Happen to Long Haul Trucking in 2035?
What happened [or what has NOT happened]?
8Source: www.hankstruckpictures.com/whitetrks.htm, http://myconstructionphotos.smugmug.com, US DoT Transportation Energy Book, www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/intensityindicators/index.html
2007
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
truc
ks in
use
(tho
usan
ds)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
1975 1985 1995 20050
2
4
6
8
10
1
3
5
7
9
average fuel eco
nom
y (mp
g)
Designed in 1936 with 135 HP and a top speed of
50 mph
500 HPLess than 6 miles
to the gallon
1965
pro
duc
tivi
ty (t
on-
mi/
gal
)
$2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50
Budget Advantages in Fuel Cost
cost
/ m
ilediesel price ($/gal)
However, fuel efficiency is recognized as a major driver of competitive advantage for carriers
9Source: RMI Analysis, NPTC, 2008 Benchmarking Survey
75%
ROBUST ADVANTAGE
Efficient Carrier
Average Carrier
Transport system optimization is a 3-axis minimization.
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Distance Travelled
Num
ber o
f
Vehicle
s
Vehicle Fuel Consumption
Source: Woodrooffe, John; UMTRI, 2009
RMI studied highlighted proven boundaries of efficiency/productivity, towards 2x ton-mile/gal
Nuclear Power11
8.7 mpg335 ton-mile/gal
12.5 mpg275 ton-mile/gal
6.5 mpg130 ton-mile/gal
Reduce energy consumption of the vehicle
Maximum delivered cargo per vehicle and trip
1. Cargo: Volume 5%, Weight 7%2. Aerodynamic Drag: 50%3. Rolling Resistance: 30%4. Engine Thermal Efficiency: 6%
• Permit “turnpike doubles” on highways (63% of U.S. ton-miles)• Increase weight from 80,000lb on 5 axles, to 120,000lb, 9 axles• Better safety than todayʼs doubles: C-dollies + Active Safety
Source: RMI Analysis
LCVs offer overall business advantages.
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FACTOR BENEFIT
Truck VMT reduction 44%
Cost saving to shipper 29%
Reduction in fuel, CO2 and NOX emissions 32%
Reduction in road consumption 40%
Exposure crash reduction 44%
Policy-affected crash rate reduction (excluding VMT exposure reduction benefits) 500%
Source: Alberta LCV Safety Study, Woodrooffe & Associates, 2009
Regulations and policies play an important role in the heavy trucking industry, whether by mandates, or its absence
13Source: RMI Analysis, recovery.gov, 3/6/09
Compounded by the bleak economic outlook, market pressures threaten to bankrupt this struggling industry
14Source: RMI Analysis, above sources as presented
More than 2,500 owner/operator trucking
companies went bankrupt in 2008
While there are some key players that we can collaborate with, it is important to involve most of the value chain given its fragmentation
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Engineering Firms, Innovation Start-ups
and Design Firms
Service End-Users
External Ind
ustry Influencers
Governm
ent Regulators, N
on-profit
Organizations, and
Industry A
ssociations
Tractor OEMs
Truck LeasorsPrivate Haulers
Owner-Operators
Small-Medium Fleets
Third-partyLogistics
Services
End-User Engagement
Weak Relationship
Strong Relationship
Mega Fleets
Trailer OEMs
Source: RMI Analysis
LEV
EL
OF
INFL
UE
NC
E
Engine OEMsComponent
Suppliers
Equipment
1. Bring scattered value chain together2. Work with either Tractor OEM or Engineering Firms (with Federal money) + Mega fleets
.
Collaboration is the key to change:
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Equal representation and communication of freight efficiency technologies and practices...
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VISION
A rapidly evolving, more profitable, efficient, and safe freight industry that ensures the environmental sustainability of North American goods movement.
MISSION
The NACFE will drive the development and adoption of efficiency-enhancing, environmentally beneficial, and cost-effective technologies, services, and methodologies in the North American freight industry by establishing and communicating independent and performance-based benefits.
PROJECT START SCOPE STAKEHOLDERS
Logistics Management,
Inc.2004
President of this bulk carrier redesigned a Class-8 tractor-trailer with major OEM for 25% more payload (25% fewer trips), better safety/ergonomics, state-of-the-art aerodynamic technology
Logistics management, confidential OEMs, confidential delivery client
Cascade Sierra
Solutions2004 Finance and lease energy efficiency devices (APU, aerodynamic add-ons, tires,
etc.) to truck owner-operators and fleets. 2000 trucks upgraded already.Freight Wing, Department of Energy, All SmartWay product suppliers
EPA SmartWay Partnership
2004“...a voluntary public-private initiative designed to improve the environmental performance of the freight delivery system in the United States through money saving, market-based approaches.”
EPA, Carriers, Logistics Companies, Dealers, Service Centers, Shippers, and Original Equipment Manufacturers across the country.
Wal-Mart Fleets 2005
State-of-the-art equipment for 25%+ fleetwide efficiency increase.Fifteen reclaimed grease fuel trucks that will run on cooking greaseNine Peterbilt Model 386: 5 heavy-duty hybrids, 4 running on liquid natural gas
Wal-Mart, Peterbuilt, Eaton, Arvin Meritor, other component suppliers
DOE-Navistar 2006 Aerodynamics and tire advancement implications on OEM integrated design
International, Frito Lay, Kentucky Trailer, Freight Wing and Michelin
21st Century Trucking
Partnership2007 Advanced technologies, hybridzation, safety measures, reliability of technology
adoption
Departments of Energy, Transportation, and Defense; the Environmental Protection Agency; and 15 industrial partners
Solid Oxide Fuel Cell APU Development
2008 Successful demo of SOFC units installed on Peterbuilt tractors generating electricity for hotel loads from a variety of fuels without combustion.
Delphi, Peterbuilt, US DoE
SuperTruck 2010 Create integrated class 8 tractor/trailer with 50% fuel efficiency by 2015. Fuel consumption reduction will be 30%
Cummins, Navistar, Daimler, US DoE
Several organizations are already working towards some of the solution RMI highlighted in its research
18Source: GreenCarCongress.com, www.epa.gov/smartway, Sharon Banks, RMI Analysis
But these initiatives are more incremental than transformative
What’s possible in theory often has market challenge...
19Source: RMI Analysis
8.7 mpg335 ton-mile/gal
12.5 mpg275 ton-mile/gal
6.5 mpg130 ton-mile/gal
Reduce energy consumption of the vehicle
Maximum delivered cargo per vehicle and trip
1. Cargo: Volume 5%, Weight 7%2. Aerodynamic Drag: 50%3. Rolling Resistance: 30%4. Engine Thermal Efficiency: 6%
• Permit “turnpike doubles” on highways (63% of U.S. ton-miles)• Increase weight from 80,000lb on 5 axles, to 120,000lb, 9 axles• Better safety than todayʼs doubles: C-dollies + Active Safety
Truck Drivers: Real Issues of Efficiency Technology Market Adoption
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“If any one of the stakeholders fails to see value in the implementation, it will not prevail.” - Greg Skjodal, Ward N.A.
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Volvo clip
“The Promise Is Evident, the Course Unamibiguous, and the Need Unmistakable.” (IBM Trucking 2020)
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Call for an Aggressive Private-Public-Academia Transformative Strategy
Vehicle Technologies
Funding for R&D and Market Adoption Incentives
Funding for Infrastructure--not just expanding and repairing of our highways, but embed traffic controlling technologies and efficiency enabling technologies (ITS, freight security enhancement, intermodal)
Collaborations among vehicle manufacturers, trucking industry stakeholders including shippers/retailers, Governments, and utilities
Leverage the Industry’s Traditional Conservatism to its Future Advantage: We can make a calculated, coordinated, yet transformative change
To See a Vastly Different Trucking by 2020:
How do we educate others about the impact of our industry?
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“The Promise Is Evident, the Course Unamibiguous, and the Need Unmistakable.” (IBM Trucking 2020)
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Call for an Aggressive Private-Public-Academia Transformative Collaboration Strategy
Vehicle Technologies
Funding for R&D and Market Adoption Incentives
Funding for Infrastructure--not just expanding and repairing of our highways, but embed traffic controlling technologies and efficiency enabling technologies (ITS, freight security enhancement, intermodal)
Collaborations among vehicle manufacturers, trucking industry stakeholders including shippers/retailers, Governments, and utilities
Leverage the Industry’s Traditional Conservatism to its Future Advantage: We can make a calculated, coordinated, yet transformative change
To See a Vastly Different Trucking by 2020:
Thank you very much
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Hiroko Kawai, PrincipalTransportation [email protected]
www.nacfe.orgwww.rmi.org