Highlights

Overview Project ActivityJuly 2005 – August 2006

Theme 1: Patterns and Variability

Multiple Constraints Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation

Rayner et al. 2005

• Transport Model• Atmospheric CO2

1 constraint

2 constraints

Trace Gas Transport Model InterComparison

• Transport Model• Terrest. Biosphere• AVHRR-PAR• Atmospheric CO2

(Parameter Estimation) Optimization InterComparison10 participant groups[CSIRO-ESA funded]

Final synthesis 20062 papers

Optimization InterComparison

Carbon Fusion: UK-NERC and other partners

Data Assimilation:US-NSF proposal (submitted)

Contributing to:

Theme 1 Lead by Raupach

Dynamic Regional Carbon Budgets and MethodologiesConference: Beijing, 16-19 August 2006 - International

Workshop: Beijing, 20 August 2006 – Focus on Asia Pacific

Theme 1

1. Synthesis Papers (in preparation) for special Issue2. Model intercomparsion on regional carbon budgets:

• 1st stage: China (2006-07)• 2nd stage: Asia Pacific (2007-08)

Lead by GCP-Beijing Office, Canadell

Regional Project on Carbon and Water Issues in SE Asia

Theme 1

1. "Regional project on carbon and water issues in SE Asia" has funded 7 projects with PIs from Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines in 2006.

2. "Advanced training workshop on carbon and water issues in SE Asia" An international team of 18 lecturers from 8 countries provided training to 33 junior faculty and senior technician/staff from 13 countries in Southeast Asia (including Australia) and South Asia. A new workshop will be held next November. The Workshop was organized by the Southeast Asia Regional Committee for START (SARCS) and sponsored by the GCP.

Lead by Chen

Annual Update of the Global Carbon Budget

Lead by Lequere, Canadell Theme 1

Short News in Science/EOS

Media event with Press Release

Website

Theme 2: Processes and Feedbacks

Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century

Permafrost

HL PeatlandsT PeatlandsVeg.-Fire/LUC

CH4 HydratesBiological PumpSolubility Pump

Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate-Human System

Oceans

Land

GCP 2005

1. To updated Geo-referenced database on frozen carbon stocks.

2. To develop a conceptual framework with all processes and feedbacks to understand future dynamics.

3. To synthesize century-scale permafrost dynamics from GCMs and 1-D models.

4. Overall Synthesis: Vulnerable in permafrost carbon.

Vulnerability of Frozen Carbon

Workshop Series 2006-08Funded by:

European Science Foundation;National Center for

Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS-NSF);

ICSU grant to IGBP

Theme 2

Partnership:Global Carbon Project (GCP)International Permafrost Association (IPA) Climate and Cryosphere (CliC-WCRP)

1st meeting Santa Barbara, CAFebruary 2006

Lead by Field & Canadell

Vulnerability of Carbon in Tropical Peatlands

Workshop Series (2006-08)Funded by:Asia Pacific Network, GCP, GEC, CIFOR1st Wk: January 2006, Sumatra, Indonesia

Theme 2

Partnership:Global Carbon Project (GCP)Global Environment Center-Malaysia (GEC)CIFOR-Bogor (Indonesia)

Undertaken Research & Synthesis:

• Update on extent and C stocks• Land use change impacts• Fire impacts• Future C emissions (scenarios)

Special Issue in ECOSYSTEMS (submission 2007)

New Research:

• Carbon transport by water in Kalimantan (Chen’s Program)• Mitigation and Adaptation: reducing vulnerability through conservation and sustainable use of peatland (APN, CIFOR)• EU – to sponsor 2007-10 Wks

Lead by Canadell, Parish, Murdiyarso

Vulnerabilities of the C cycle to Drought and Fire

Theme 2

• Theme 1: Observations of Climate Change, Variability and the Carbon Cycle• Theme 2: Processes and Controls of Coupled Carbon-Water Cycles• Theme 3: Modeling Present and Future Interactions of Carbon and Hydrological Cycles• Theme 4: Vulnerability and Ecosystem Services of Carbon-Water Cycles

Are regional drying trends weakening the terrestrial carbon sink?

1997-98 SEA Tropical

1.4 PgC

01,02,03SEA Trop.1.2 PgC

1994-2002High-Mid LatitudeSummers undo the benefits of earlier spring

2003Europe0.5 PgC

2002-present0.2 Pg C

2003Siberia0.2 PgC

1997 AmazonFire Year 2005

Amazon1 Pg C

Australian Academy of Science,

Canberra, Australia, 5-9 June 2006

Co-sponsors:GCP, Australian

AR-ESS-N, AIMES, ESF

Lead by Raupach & Canadell

Vulnerabilities: Synthesis and Integration

Theme 2

• Raupach MR, Canadell JG (2006)

Observing a vulnerable carbon cycle. In: Observing the Continental Scale Greenhouse Gas Balance of Europe (eds. H. Dolman, R. Valentini, A. Freibauer), Springer, Berlin (submitted).

• Canadell JG, Gifford R, Houghton S, Pataki D, Raupach MR, Smith P, Steffen W (2006)

Saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink. In: Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, Canadell JG, Pataki D, Pitelka L (eds.). The IGBP Series. Springer, Berlin (in press)

Theme 3: Carbon Management

Open Science Conference

Theme 3

Co-Sponsors:AIMES; START; Global Land Project; IHDP/IGBP Urbanization Project;

Industrial Transformation (IT); National Institute of Ecology (INE); and Metropolitan Autonomous University

Carbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels:Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues

Mexico City, September 4-8, 2006

Lead by Romero, Dhakal

Earth System Science Partnership

B. Relatively shorter-term carbon management perspective inside cities and regionsA. Longer-term regional carbon management perspective Diagnostic approach Solution-seeking approach

Energy use from fossil fuelHolistic analysesSectoral analyses

Land use changes

Holistic variables such as POETIC*

Specific and focused variables such as lifestyle, population etc.

Energy choice BuildingsTransportPollution management

Direct and embodied

carbon emissions and sinks

Locally, at urban and regional levelsNationallyInternational mechanisms and emerging climate regimes

Urban and regional

development scenario and assessing its

carbon consequences

Regional development

pathways and its implications on

carbon (1)

Carbon accounting

(2)

Analyzing proximate

and underlying

drivers (3)

Evaluating trade-offs/synergies of

integrating carbon mgmt in

key urban issues (4)

Studying opportunities for

re-orienting institutions and

incentive systems

(5)

Urban and Regional Carbon Management (URCM) Place-based and policy-relevant carbon management research agenda

Other activities in 2006/2007 Theme 3 Lead by Dhakal

Social Networks & Urban/Regional Carbon Management

1. Power to Change & Power to Resist2. Missing or Weak Clusters in Policy- Making or Implementation3. Shared Values for Building Consensus4. Creating Knowledge-Sharing Action Clusters5. Knitting Networks for Action6. Stakeholder Networks, Worldview Commitment to Decarbonized Future 7. Time & Place Stamps in Network Data

8. Computational Laboratories

Theme 3 Lead by Canan

Lessons from Implementing the Montreal Protocol for URCM

• Technology & Economic Assessment Panel

• Global Network of Industry, Government, Academia, NGOs

• Fostered Collaboration• Can-Do Teams• Leadership• Linked Co-Benefits

Theme 3 Lead by Canan

Carbon Sequestration and Policy

Theme 3

• Science bases for carbon accounting rules in the Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector for international negotiations. Including:

– Deforestation Avoidance.– Factoring out direct from indirect

human-induced influences on C sources and sinks.

• One workshop every year associated with COP or SBSTA meetings.

• Special Issue in Environmental Policy and Climate (in preparation).

• Deforestation Avoidance (Policy Briefing, in preparation)

NIES

Lead by Schlamadinger, Yamagata, Canadell

GCP Wide: Program Developments

PublicationsRussian

June 2005[Exe.Sum.Only]

In press20042003

English

Oct. 2003

Chinese

Nov. 2004

20042005

Japanese

March 2006

Project Wide

Policy Briefing on Carbon (in preparation)

To be published by the UNFCCC CoP 12 in Nairobi, November 2006

Exam

ple

of P

olicy

Brie

fing

only

Project Wide

SSC Rotation

Project Wide

Rotate Off:• Mike Apps, Canada• Mingkui Cao, China• Bob Dickinson, USA• Chris Sabine, USA• Riccardo Valentini, Italy• Oran Young, USA

Nominations:• Yi Qe, China• Antonio Nobre, Brazil• Guy Midgley, South Africa• Thomas Johansson, Sweden• Pierre Friedlingstein, France

Invited:• Scot Doney, USA

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