Higher Education and Upward Mobility New Lessons from Big Data · 2017-02-10 · Higher Education...
Transcript of Higher Education and Upward Mobility New Lessons from Big Data · 2017-02-10 · Higher Education...
Raj Chetty
Stanford University
Higher Education and Upward Mobility New Lessons from Big Data
Photo Credit: Florida Atlantic University
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pct.
of C
hild
ren E
arn
ing m
ore
than t
heir P
are
nts
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Child's Year of Birth
The Fading American Dream Percent of Children Earning More than Their Parents, by Year of Birth
Source: Chetty, Grusky, Hell, Hendren, Manduca, Narang 2016
Higher education is widely viewed as a pathway to upward
mobility
– But little systematic data on which colleges contribute the
most to helping children climb the income ladder
Higher Education and Upward Mobility
We show how colleges shape upward mobility by constructing
mobility report cards for every college in America
– Statistics on parents’ incomes and students’ earnings
outcomes at each college
– Use de-identified attendance and income data on 30 million
students from 1999-2013 from Treasury and Dept. of Ed.
Mobility Report Cards
Source: Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, Yagan 2017
Start by examining how access to colleges varies with
parents’ household income
Low-Income Access
0
5
10
15
Perc
ent
of S
tudents
0 20 40 60 80 100
Parent Rank
Parent Income Distribution at Ivy-Plus Colleges
Note: “Ivy Plus” = Ivy League, Chicago, Duke, MIT, Stanford
14.5% of students from top 1%
0
5
10
15
Perc
ent
of S
tudents
0 20 40 60 80 100
Parent Rank
More students from the top 1% than the bottom 50%
13.5% of students from bottom 50%
Parent Income Distribution at Ivy-Plus Colleges
5.0 6.1 9.3
12.8
66.7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Perc
ent
of S
tudents
1 2 3 4 5
Parent Income Quintile
Columbia
Parent Income Distributions: Columbia vs. CUNY
5.0 6.1 9.3
12.8
66.7
28.7 26.5
19.0
14.0 11.8
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Perc
ent
of S
tudents
1 2 3 4 5
Parent Income Quintile
Columbia
CUNY System
Parent Income Distributions: Columbia vs. CUNY
Now turn to students’ earnings outcomes in adulthood
– Measure children’s individual earnings in their mid-30s
– How many students from families in the bottom fifth reach
the top fifth?
Students’ Outcomes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1 2 3 4 5
Mobility Report Card for CUNY – Hunter College
Access: Fraction of Parents from the Bottom Fifth = 21%
Pe
rce
nt o
f S
tud
en
ts
Parent Income Quintile
Success Rate: Fraction of Students who Reach the Top Fifth (>$60K) = 36%
Access: Fraction of Parents from the Bottom Fifth (<$25K) = 21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1 2 3 4 5
Mobility Report Card for CUNY – Hunter College
Pe
rce
nt o
f S
tud
en
ts
Parent Income Quintile
Mobility Rates
Measure a college’s mobility rate (MR) as the fraction of its
students who come from bottom fifth and end up in top fifth
Mobility rate equals access times success rate:
Mobility Rate = Access x Success Rate
At Hunter College: 7.5% = 21% x 36%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Success R
ate
: P
(Child
in Q
5 | P
ar
in Q
1)
0 20 40 60
Access: Percent of Parents in Bottom Quintile
Access and Success Rates Across Colleges
Hunter
0
20
40
60
80
100
Success R
ate
: P
(Child
in Q
5 | P
ar
in Q
1)
0 20 40 60
Access: Percent of Parents in Bottom Quintile
Access and Success Rates Across Colleges
Staten Island Brooklyn
Kingsborough
John Jay
Queensborough
Bernard Baruch
Medgar
York
City College
Borough of Manhattan
NY City Tech Lehman
Laguardia Bronx Hostos
Hunter
Queens
0
20
40
60
80
100
Success R
ate
: P
(Child
in Q
5 | P
ar
in Q
1)
0 20 40 60
Access: Percent of Parents in Bottom Quintile
Access and Success Rates Across Colleges
Princeton
Columbia
NYU
Rutgers
Mercer County CC
SUNY-Stony Brook
Essex County College Hudson County CC Monroe College
Staten Island Brooklyn
Kingsborough
John Jay
Queensborough
Bernard Baruch
Medgar
York
City College
Borough of Manhattan
NY City Tech Lehman
Laguardia Bronx Hostos
Hunter
Queens
CUNY System: Mobility Rate = 7.2%
Other NYC Colleges: Mobility Rate = 3.5%
Princeton
Columbia
NYU
Rutgers
Mercer County CC
SUNY-Stony Brook
Essex County College Hudson County CC Monroe College
Staten Island
Queens
Brooklyn
Kingsborough
John Jay
Queensborough
Bernard Baruch
Medgar
York
City College
Borough of Manhattan
NY City Tech Lehman
Laguardia Bronx Hostos
0
20
40
60
80
100
Success R
ate
: P
(Child
in Q
5 | P
ar
in Q
1)
0 20 40 60
Access: Percent of Parents in Bottom Quintile
Access and Success Rates Across Colleges
Hunter
CUNY System: Mobility Rate = 7.2%
Other NYC Colleges: Mobility Rate = 3.5%
1.9%
3.1%
8.0%
8.1%
8.3%
8.4%
8.4%
9.7%
9.9%
10.2%
11.7%
12.9%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Avg. College in the U.S.
Columbia
Technical Career Institutes
CUNY-Brooklyn
CUNY-NY City Tech
SUNY-Stony Brook
Pace University
CUNY-John Jay
Cal State-Los Angeles
CUNY-Lehman
CUNY-City
CUNY-Bernard Baruch
Top 10 Colleges in America By Mobility Rate
2.0%
2.1%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2.7%
2.9%
3.1%
3.3%
4.3%
8.3%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Average
OK
AR
SUNY
NM
LA
FL
TX
NJ
CA
CUNY
Mobility Rates for Four-Year State College Systems
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
2.1%
2.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%
2.7%
5.7%
0% 2% 4% 6%
Average
NJ
WY
NM
WV
MS
CA
LA
TX
ND
CUNY
Mobility Rates for Two-Year State College Systems
How have access and mobility rates changed in recent years?
– Are colleges like CUNY continuing to provide ladders to
opportunity?
Changes Over Time
0
10
20
30
Perc
ent
of P
are
nts
in t
he B
ott
om
Quin
tile
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year When Child was 20
CUNY System SUNY Stony Brook Columbia
Trends in Low-Income Access from 2000-2011
-10
-5
0
Change in P
ct.
of
Stu
dents
fro
m B
ott
om
Quin
tile
(pp)
Sta
ten
Isla
nd
Bro
okly
n
Bro
nx
Hunte
r
Yo
rk
Jo
hn
Ja
y
Kin
gsb
oro
ug
h
Manhattan
Me
dg
ar
Be
rna
rd B
aru
ch
Ho
sto
s
Qu
ee
ns
City T
ech
Qu
ee
nsb
oro
ug
h
Le
hm
an
City
LaG
uard
ia
Trends in Low-Income Access from 2000-2011 by CUNY Campus
How can we preserve or increase access to institutions like
CUNY for children from low-income families?
Why are mobility rates at CUNY so high, and how can this
success be replicated and expanded?
– Is CUNY successful in selecting upwardly mobile students or does
studying at CUNY increase a given child’s chance of success?
Key Questions for Future Work
Download data for every college from the Equality of Opportunity Project
www.equality-of-opportunity.org
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pct.
of C
hild
ren E
arn
ing m
ore
than t
heir P
are
nts
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Child's Year of Birth
The Fading American Dream Percent of Children Earning More than Their Parents, by Year of Birth
Source: Chetty, Grusky, Hell, Hendren, Manduca, Narang 2016