High Canada Google Community Mobility UK Google …...• Daily Google data tracking movement trends...

1

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday October 20, 2020

High-Frequency Dashboard: Tracking the Post-Lockdown Recovery (October 20, 2020)

Shaun Osborne

Chief FX Strategist

461.945.4538

[email protected]

Follow us on Twitter @SCOTIABANKFX

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 16)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20



US Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 16)

Google Community Mobility

• Daily Google data tracking movement trends points to continued, albeit slowing, gains in economic activity but the re-imposition of some lockdown

measures in certain regions endangers the path of the recovery. While the end of strict quarantine periods led to an initial, strong, rebound in

activity the coming quarters will see growth returning to a smoother trajectory, with economic output unlikely to reach its pre-coronavirus level

before late-2021 given the economic impact and job losses resulting from the shutdowns and their spillovers. Activity in the UK seems to be

declining amid a recent quick increase in COVID-19 contagions and also following the end of the government’s restaurant subsidy scheme in late-

Aug. Canadian retail mobility also seems to have crested although this may be due to seasonal patterns to a large degree

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20



UK Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 16)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20



Germany Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 16)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20



Japan Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 16)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20



Mexico Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Oct 16)

Juan Manuel Herrera

FX Strategist

416.866.6781

[email protected]

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada


Google Community Mobility: Workplaces

% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Oct 16) -100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20



Google Community Mobility: Retail

% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Oct 16)

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20



Google Community Mobility: Transit Stns.

% change from baseline, 7-dma(Last: Oct 16)

https://twitter.com/Scotiabankfx

2


0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Topic "Unemployment Benefits"

respective peak = 100(Last: Oct 17)

Canada 7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Search Term "New Car"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Realtor"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Google Search Trends

• Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada with the recent uptick likely a result of newly

-announced employment insurance programmes. In the US, searches for unemployment benefits have fallen to their lowest point since March

after jumping in early August; which may have reflected the end of supplementary unemployment benefits in late-July and a new round of layoffs

as some businesses closed with the rebound in cases in certain states. ‘Realtor’ search interest remains elevated amid ultra-low borrowing rates

in Canada and the US but has eased as the summer buying season passes. Searches for ‘COVID test’ have surged in several countries while the

recent jump in searches in the US began around the time of the President’s positive diagnosis; the decline in Canada may be on the back of

testing restrictions in Ontario.

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Topic "Bankruptcy"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

UK FraIta MexUS Cda


Search Term "Covid Test"

respective peak = 100, 7-day ma (Last: Oct 17)

New York Fed Economic Index

• The NY Fed’s economic index which

aggregates ten daily and weekly indices

points to a year-on-year decline in GDP of

around –4.0% in mid-Oct equivalent to a

6.3% q/q increase for Q4 (very early data)

following an estimated 22.3% expansion in

Q3 after Q2’s 32.9% q/q contraction.

US Gasoline Demand

• Weekly US gasoline demand currently sits at

around 8% below last year’s levels as a

higher share of workers work from home and

mobility is reduced amid contagion concerns.

Indeed New Job Postings

• Online daily job postings on Indeed remain

practically unchanged relative to 2019 in the

US and also in Canada—although there

appears to be some seasonal variation that

has led to a divergence from last year’s

trend.

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20 10/20

US (2019)

US (2020)

CA (2019)

CA (2020)

Source: Indeed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Indeed New Job Postings

Feb 1 = 100, 7-dma (Last: Oct 9)

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

Source: DOE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Gasoline Demandmn bpd(Last: Oct 7)

2020 (Latest = 92%of 2019)

2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20


Canada and US:Topic "Restaurant"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: FRBNY, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US FRBNY WeeklyEconomic Indexy/y % GDP grow th equivalent(Last: Oct 17)

Latest = -4.0%

3


Scotiabank Canadian Merchant Data

• Scotiabank debit and credit card payments data compiled by our Economics, Customer Insights, and

Data & Analytics teams show that retail transactions across core merchant categories have rebounded

solidly in Canada from their April depths when compared to the same period last year. Total credit and

debit transactions now stand around their year-ago levels after falling by close to 30% y/y in April but

after showing a 5-10% increase through August; clothing and automotive are now roughly unchanged

year-on-year while restaurant expenses have also recently turned negative—and may worse amid

restrictions in QC and ON. For more details see here. For questions contact Nikita Perevalov

([email protected]).

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Travel RestaurantsHardware AutomotiveClothing EntertainmentHealth Tota l

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Oct 9)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

-50

0

50

100

150

200

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Telecom Computer network

Computer software Grocer ies

Digital goods Tota l

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Oct 9)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

Scotia FX Risk Appetite Index

• Our daily risk appetite index—a factor of

financial risk variables such as CDS spreads

and market volatility—is trading just between

its 40– and 100-day moving averages.

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Mfg FinanceProf/Biz svcs Educ/HealthLeisure/Hosp Total

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Burning Glass,

Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Job Postings by Industry

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 9)

Affinity Solutions US Card Spending Data

• Affinity Solutions debit and credit card payments data show that retail sales in the US remain

slightly below their baseline in early-2020—but on a slight upward trajectory—with grocery

purchases remaining elevated as individuals spend more time at home while spending on

recreation and transportation remains quite depressed at ~ 50% lower than baseline, while

accommodation and food spending is about 25% lower. Spending on general merch. & apparel

has rebounded to only ~5% below baseline. The data show tentative signs that the stalling from

June through most of August has ended with the latest jump in expenses led by bottom-income-

quartile areas.

Burning Glass US Jobs Postings

• Weekly Burning Glass data show that US job

postings were down ~10% y/y, compared to

their pandemic trough of –41% in late-April.

Openings in the leisure and hospitality sector

appear to have been severely impacted by

the re-imposition of lockdown measures in

certain states with steep increases in COVID

-19 cases.

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

10/19 01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Scotiabank FX Strategy Risk Appetite Index

index, 2008-present avg. = 0(Last: Oct 20)

100DMA

Risk appetite index

200DMA

40DMA

-50

-25

0

25

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

TopMiddleBottom QuartileAll

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,


US Credit/Debit Card Spending by ZIP Code Median Income Quartile% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 4)

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

HealthAcc/FoodGroceriesTrans/WHArts/Ent/RecGeneral/ApparelAll

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,


US Credit/Debit Card Spending by Sector

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Oct 4)

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.insights-views.tracking-the-canadian-economy-through-covid-19-insights-from-customer-transactions--october-15--2020-.htmlmailto:[email protected]

4


60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Thousands

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: EIA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Midwest Energy Demand

000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Oct 19)

latest: 94% of avg

22

27

32

37

42

47

52

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: TEPCO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Japan Energy Demand


latest = 98% of avg

10

12

14

16

18

20

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: SMARD, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Energy Demand


latest = 101% of avg.

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: IESO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Ontario Energy Demand


latest: 95% of avg

25

30

35

40

45

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: Cenace, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Mexico Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max

(Last: Oct 18)

latest: 99% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: ONS, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Brazil Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max (Last: Oct 18)

latest: 104% of avg

0

20

40

60

80

100

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20 10/20

China Germany UKJapan Mexico New ZealandUS Canada

Source: Hale, Webster, Petherick, Phillips, and Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government , Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Incorporates public information on 17 indicators of government responses.

Oxford Lockdown Stringency Index

100 = strictest response Lockdown Stringency Index

• Oxford University's lockdown stringency index—a useful

guideline to track containment measures around the

globe—shows the impact of the imposition and removal of

containment measures imposed in New Zealand amid a

surge in cases in the Auckland area after the country

reached 102 days without community transmission.

Germany’s restrictions remain relatively loose compared to

its peers—despite a recent uptick in contagions—which will

likely result in an outperformance of the country's economy

within the euro-bloc. Oxford’s index already reflects an

increase in restrictions in the UK amid a second wave of

COVID-19.

Energy Demand

• Hourly energy demand data shows that most economies are back to seasonal demand trends,

including Mexico which had consistently lagged its peers at about 10% below the average of

the past few years.

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

2017

2018

2019

2020

2017-19 avg

Source: RTE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

000 mw daily avg, 14-dma (Last: Oct 19)

France Energy Demand

latest: 110% of avg

5


-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

US m. vehicles & eq.US ex mveCanada m. vehicles & eq.Canada ex mve

Source: CN, AAR, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US Rail Merchandise Shipments

y/y % change in carloads(Last: Oct 10)

Rail Shipments

• Weekly rail shipments data shows that

shipments ex. motor vehicles and equipment

in Canada and the US roughly unchanged

when compared to last year but it is still too

early to tell whether the recent jump in the

data is sustained. On the flip side, US auto

shipments appear to have recovered fully vs

year-ago levels while they remain depressed

around 20-25% in Canada.

US Steel Production

• Weekly US steel production data suggests

that activity in the manufacturing and

construction sectors has not yet significantly

improved for steel mills to notably ramp up

production, which stands at about 83% of

year-ago output compared to 60% in early

May. The trend is nevertheless encouraging

as 2020 levels continue to rise toward normal

production.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

• Chinese industrial output appears to have

recovered quickly as steel inventory levels in

the country are depleted from record-highs

as reflected by weekly Shanghai storage

data for both traders and steel mills. Steel

mill inventories are around year-ago levels.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Source: Antaike, Mysteel, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

mn tonnes(Last: Oct 16)

2020traders

(LHS)

2019traders

(LHS)

mn tonnes(Last: Oct 16)

2020steel mills

(RHS)

2019steel mills

(RHS)1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Source: AISI, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Steel Production

mn short tonnes(Last: Oct 16)

2020(Latest = 83% of 2019)

2019

Germany Truck Mileage Index

• Daily truck mileage data for Germany—a

close indicator of industrial production—

shows a sharp rebound in economic activity

in Europe’s largest economy. As of Oct 5,

miles traveled by trucks in Germany were

around their year-ago level. This series and

other data again point to the German

economy recovering at a fast pace as

lockdown measures are lifted.

Retail Traffic

• ShopperTrak and Prodco retail foot traffic

data show that retail activity has stabilised in

France and Germany after a quick rebound

through May and June. Retail traffic in the

US and the UK has also recently reversed

course, while it has accelerated in Hong

Kong.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

UK France

Germany Hong Kong

US

Source: Shopper Trak, Prodco Analytics,Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Retail Foot Traffic

y/y % change(Last: w eek of Oct 5)

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20 10/20

Source: Destatis, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Truck Mileage Index

y/y % change(Last: Oct 8)

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

10/19 01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Source: Bundesbank, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index

3m/3m % implied change in real GDP(Last: Oct 18)

Latest: +2.8% 3m/3m

Bundesbank Activity Index

• The Bundesbank’s high-frequency economic

activity index estimates that the German

economy is expanding by 2.8% on a 3m/3m

basis, as of Oct 5, up from –6.1% roughly

four months ago, reflecting the increase in

activity in the country’s industrial and

services sectors. The most recent data,

however, shows a plateauing of growth as

we kick off the third quarter. Note that

Germany’s economy contracted by –9.7% in

Q2, compared to the Bundesbank WEI

estimate of -4.2% at end-June.

6


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

Source: Flight Radar, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Flight Radar TrackedCommercial Flights Globally

000s per day(Last: Oct 19)

2020 7-dma(Latest = 58% of 2019)

2019 7-dma

TSA Checkpoint Throughput

• Daily US TSA shows that traffic through US

airports remains heavily subdued at about a

third when compared to 2019. The recent

rise in cases in the country may explain the

plateauing of US travel since early-June. As

domestic and international restrictions are

lifted we should see a more important pick-

up in travel activity.

Flight Radar Commercial Flights

• Daily flights data from Flight Radar points to

an unsurprising massive decline in air travel

(about 40-45% lower compared to last year)

owing to travel bans and other strict

restrictions on domestic and international

travel. As some countries eradicate (or

sharply limit the spread of the virus) some

travel will resume between ‘COVID-free’

nations.

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

• Daily OpenTable restaurant foot traffic data

points to a solid rebound in restaurant visits

in Australia while other major economies see

reduced gains, notable the UK with the end

of the government’s “eat out to help out” 50%

discount scheme on Aug 31; the UK has also

recently imposed a 10pm curfew on the

hospitality sector. Certain regions of Quebec

and Ontario recently banned indoor dining as

well. Restaurant visits in Mexico and the US

are showing an upward trend.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

DrivingWalkingTransitBaseline

Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Apple Mobility Trends

routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Oct 10)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


US Apple Mobility Trends


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


Germany Apple Mobility Trends


Apple Mobility Trends

• Daily Apple data tracking Apple Maps routing requests shows that driving and walking mobility in Canada, the US, and Germany now exceeds

their respective baseline levels of mid-January. However, only in Germany has there been a significant and sustained increase in transit usage

that points to a faster return to economic normality than in North America as lockdown measures are lifted; see Oxford U’s lockdown stringency

index that shows Germany’s restrictions are now significantly more relaxed than in most of its peers. The recent decline in Canadian, US, and

slightly less so in German, mobility may have reflected a concern over increasing cases and/or a lull in mobility around the school year re-start—

i.e. normal seasonal patterns.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

02/20 04/20 06/20 08/20 10/20

GermanyMexicoAustraliaUKCanadaUS

Source: Opentable, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

OpenTable Restaurant Visitsy/y% change (Last: Oct 17),7-day ma

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20

Source: TSA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

TSA Checkpoint Travelers

000s, 7-day ma(Last: Oct 20)

2020(Latest = 36% of 2019)

2019

7


Dallas Fed State Mobility and Engagement Index, 7-day ma (Last: Oct 10)

Source: Dallas Fed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 9, Jan-Feb avg. = 0 (difference from baseline).

WA (-39)

OR (-34)

CA (-49)

ID (-22)

NV (-37)

UT (-29)

AZ (-36)

MT (-26)

WY (-16)

CO (-34)

NM (-34)

ND (-40)

SD (-26)

NE (-28)

KS (-33)

OK (-26)

TX (-41)

MN (-49)

IA (-31)

MO (-28)

AR (-26)

LA (-37)

WI (-48)

IL (-49)

KY (-33)

TN (-29)

MS (-27)

MI (-34)

IN (-27)

OH (-31)

WV (-23)

NC (-34)

AL (-30)

PA (-38)

VA (-45)

SC (-25)

GA (-31)

NY (-46)

NJ (-55)

MD (-55)

DC (-60)

FL (-37)

VT (-44)

MA (-53)

CT (-49)

DE (-46)

ME (-31)

NH (-43)

RI (-45)

HI (-56)

AK (-26)

ALL (-38)

8


New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by US State and Canadian Province, 7-day ma (Last: Oct 19)

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is March 3.

WA

OR

CA

HI

ID

NV

UT

AZ

MT

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

AR

LA

KY

TN

MS

OH PA

VA

SC

GA

MD

NJ

NY MA

VT

CT

DE

NH

ME

RIWY

WV

NC

AL

DC

MI

IN

IL

WI

FL

BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS

NLPE

AK

9


Card Spending, Opportunity Insights Affinity Solutions, 7-day ma (Last: Oct 4)

Source: Opportunity Insights, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 24, Jan = 0 (% difference from baseline).

WA (-2.5)

OR (-4.4)

CA (-9.9)

ID (9.2)

NV (-10.2)

UT (-9.0)

AZ (-2.5)

MT (0.1)

WY (-2.9)

CO (-10.1)

NM (-5.8)

ND (-2.9)

SD (-1.6)

NE (-4.0)

KS (0.2)

OK (2.0)

TX (-3.0)

MN (-5.7)

IA (-5.9)

MO (3.5)

AR (4.7)

LA (10.1)

WI (-5.8)

IL (-5.0)

KY (3.4)

TN (1.7)

MS (18.5)

MI (15.1)

IN (3.6)

OH (1.0)

WV (12.1)

NC (-3.1)

AL (6.3)

PA (5.4)

VA (0.0)

SC (6.7)

GA (-4.8)

NY (-4.4)

NJ (-6.6)

MD (0.6)

DC (-28.9)

FL (-2.2)

VT (-0.1)

MA (0.0)

CT (-2.6)

DE (-2.1)

ME (-13.4)

NH (5.2)

RI (14.0)

HI (-12.2)

AK (-7.8)

ALL (-3.2)

10


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This report is prepared by Scotiabank as a resource for clients of Scotiabank for information and discussion purposes only. This report should be considered a marketing

communication and has not been prepared by a member of the research department of Scotiabank, it is solely for the use of sophisticated institutional investors, and this

report does not constitute investment advice or any personal recommendation to invest in a financial instrument or “investment research” as defined by the UK Prudential

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research. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions

contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from publically available sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to

their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Scotiabank or any of its employees incur any re-

sponsibility. Neither Scotiabank nor its representatives accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not, and is

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inherently subject to uncertainties beyond the control of Scotiabank including but not limited to economic and financial conditions globally, regulatory development in Canada

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