HEW PROJECT PURPOSE, TRAJECTORY AND RESULTS · Causal loop diagrams theme of causal loop direction...
Transcript of HEW PROJECT PURPOSE, TRAJECTORY AND RESULTS · Causal loop diagrams theme of causal loop direction...
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
4th stakeholder workshop
HEW PROJECT PURPOSE, TRAJECTORY AND RESULTS
Nici Zimmermann
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
4th stakeholder workshop
Team members unable to be here today
RobertMuetzelfeldt
ShaneCarnohan
AlexMacmillan
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
4th stakeholder workshop
Summary of HEW
Aims
• Addressing dynamic complexity
• Getting to futures we want
Journey
• A process of transparent and collaborative learning together
• Bring together different kinds of knowledge
• Set of causal diagrams for learning together about the system
• Strategic pieces of simulation to support integrated policy-making– Green Deal
– Heating, ventilation and rebound
• Exploring methods of change
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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HEW themes and policy criteria
carbonemissions from
housing
fuel poverty
housingaffordability
housingadaptation to
climate change
physicalwellbeing /
health
social andincome equity
policycoherence
communitysocial
connection
mental andemotionalwellbeing
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Causal loop diagrams
theme of causal loop direction
carbon emissions from housing stock (iffy) weak impact
housing affordability
(regional rental affordability)
housing affordability
(home ownership)
physical and mental wellbeing
(household crowding )
community social connection8/10 3.5/10
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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The project‘s trajectory
Pilot projectParticipatory
mapping
Quantitativesystem
dynamicsmodelling
DECCEMSDstudent
Funded andsubmittedprojects
Colleagues‘work
3 PhDs
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Papers directly related to the HEW project from 2016
Accepted submissions: International System Dynamics Conference 20161. System dynamics model of heating, ventilation and rebound2. Fragmentation in housing construction and retrofit3. Group model building and simulation platforms in the built environment4. What are system dynamics insights?5. PhD colloquium: Socio-economic structure of the London housing crisis6. PhD colloquium: Homeowners' energy efficiency renovation decisions
Journal• Submission: Using textual data in system dynamics model conceptualization• Publication: Integrated decision-making about housing, energy and wellbeing
Working paper• Framework and method for housing policy
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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UCL System Dynamics Group
Mentoring on work in progress, 13.00–14.00 every other Monday
11/03 Nici Zimmermann Group initiation meeting
21/03 Katya Bobrova Homeowners‘ decision-making
11/04 Shane Carnohan Interactive simulation environment
25/04 Kalliopi Fouseki Heritage retrofit
09/05 Bernard Tembo Investment decisions in the copper industry
23/05 Lucy Campbell Vicious cycles in NHS vending machine services
06/06 Daniela Flor Water efficiency in households
20/06 Kaveh Dianati UK/London housing crisis
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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DECC Demand Reduction Obligation (DRO)
• Supported DECC in investigating the DRO idea
• Small participatory system dynamics workshop
• DECC’s decision: not to pursue
• Work revealed
– Complexity of the issue
– Difficulties in setting the target
– Risks to suppliers
– Possibility to increase bills
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Interest in similar work?
• Greater London Authority (GLA)
• CO Impact Group
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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• Moisture central to IAQ and unintended consequences in the HEWproject
• CBES funded Neil May to establish centre
• UK Centre led by UCL, BRE, Heriot Watt, LSHTM
• Advisory working groups from industry, government, academics, publicinterest bodies
• Participatory organisation based on systems thinking
• Practical aims and engagement: improving moisture safety of UK builtenvironment
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Five themes of UKCMB
Use
HealthBuildings
Context
Process
www.ukcmb.org
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Housing Crisis Project
• CBES funded research paper on the context of the housing crisis and itseffect on energy and well being: Miriam Morris and Neil May
• Complexity of the system not fully understood in public discourse (oracademia)
• Impossibility of “solving”the crisis within this system
• Multiple and severeunintended consequencesof Business As Usual
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Housing Crisis Project
• Seminar Sept 2015 with IEDE, EI and School of Planning
• UCL Grand Challenges adopts work
• London public seminar April 2016
• Paper: Prof N Gallent, D Durrant, N May
• Kaveh Dianati PhD: SD model of housing crisis
• Seminar programme with Institute for Global Prosperity using“regeneration” of East London to explore housing system, effects,paradigms and options for change
• Centre of Housing and Change?
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Post workshop 3
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
4th stakeholder workshop
Workshop 3
• Issue elicitation
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Since workshop 3
• Issue elicitation
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Fragmentation
Since workshop 3
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Our process
Community Industry Policy
Model Refinement
Web-enabledInteractive Simulation
Environment
Web-enabledInteractive Simulation
Environment
Interviews with 18 stakeholders onissues of fragmentation and integration
3 groupmodel
buildingworkshops
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Confirmatory and disconfirmatory dots problem space
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Confirmatory and disconfirmatory dots problem space
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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More structure elicitation
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Results of the modelling process
• The added value of modelling for understanding
useful and efficient to understand the problem and gain insights
neutral about the clarity of the causes of the problem
• Consensus building
the integration of diverse opinions of the participants (especially WS 3)
reaching a consensus
• Take-home
supporting the conclusions of the meetings in their organizations
applicability of this approach in their organizations
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Group model building vs. normal meetings
• Insight
more insight
Positive on quicker insight in WS 1, neutral in WS 2, full agreement except 1
participant in WS 3
• Communication and shared vision
better communication
better shared vision
but not necessarily quicker
• Commitment
neutral about both more and quicker commitment
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Modelling
• Larger model
– Tool for triggering discussion
– Tool for testing our thinking
– This tool is not supposed to make predictions
– Tool for scenario analyses
• Condensed model for our Web-enabled Interactive SimulationEnvironment (WISE)
– Tool for triggering discussion
– Tool for testing our thinking
– This tool is not supposed to make predictions
– Easier to understand tool
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
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Modelling
• Larger model for analyses
• Small model for interactive learning environment
Investment in
Energy Efficiency
Effect of EEInvestment
Average EnergyEfficiency
Performance
Increase in EEperformance by
rework
EE performancechange by
compromiseDesired Energy
EfficiencyPerformance
Capabilities ofthe Indus tryIncrease in
Capabilities
Effect of Capabilitieson Performance
IndustryIntended EEPerformance
Gap betweenthe desired and
actual EEperformance
Investment in
Monitoring
Wellbeing ofResidents
CommunityConnection
CommunalSpaces
Net change incommunal
spaces
Net change incommunityconnection
Net change inwellbeing
Use ofcommunal
spaces
Availablefunding forcommunal
spaces
Communalspaces
funding gap
Annual cost ofmaintainingcommunal
spaces
Investment inCommunal
Spaces
Indicated communityconnection
Compliance ofthe industry with
the residentsHEW
Performance
Effect of communalspaces oncommunityconnection
Effect of HEWperforma nce on
community connection
IndicatedWellbeing
Effect of communalspaces on wellbeing Effect of community
connection onwellbeing
Effect of HEWperformance on
wellbeing
Average HEWPerformance of
Buildings
Increase in HEWPerformance by
rework
EE Related HEWPerformance
Industry IntendedHEW Performance
ResidentsDesired HEWPerformance
HEW performancechange by
compromise
Gap between thedesired and actualHEW performance
Monitoring effect
Ratio of communalspaces to the normal
+
-
CommunalSpaces Step
Function
Energy EfficiencyStep Function
Monitoring StepFunction
Data Wellbeing
Mean SAP Score
Ratio of VerySatisfied with Their
Accommodation
Indicative changein communal
spaces
Maximumchange incommunal
spacesMaximum HEW
Performance
Houses Des ignedand Applied for
Approval
Houses Certified inDesign
HousesConstructed and
Applied for acertificate
HousesConstructed and
CertifiedNew Houses
Designapproval
rate
Constructionstart rate
Certificationrate
Commissioningrate
Fraction complyingwith regulations
Design ApprovalApplication Rate
Planningpermission delay
Houses Refusedto be Certified
RefusalrateRework
rate
Fraction assumed tocomply with regulations
Rework fraction
Commissioningdelay
Houses underConstruction Construction
finish rate
Constructionfinish time
DesignRejection rate
DataConstruction
Start
Initial value ofhouses certified
Rate ofdiscardedprojects
Fraction ofprojects started
Totalpipeline
Datacommissioning
Data approvalData totalpipeline
<Des igned HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings>
Initial NewHouses
<HEW Performance inHousing Policy>
<Average time todesign>
Adjustment forNew Houses
Adjustment time fornew houses
DesiredAcquisition Rate
<Demolishingrate>
Desired Pipeline
Adjustment forPipeline
Adjustment timefor pipeline
Indicated DesignApplications
Initial HousesConst and Cert
Initial H Constand Applied
Initial H underConst
HousingDemandBacklog
Annual Housing
Demand
Delivery
Investment inmonitoring
<Industry compliance withbuilding regulations>
New-builtcertification fraction
Weight of actualcompliance incertificationReference
investment inmonitoring
Ratio of monitoringinvestment to the
reference
Certificationdelay
Designed HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings
Change in thedesigned HEWperformance
Average timeto design
Required DesignPerformance
Initial DesignPerformance
Difference betweenRequired and Previous
Performance
Willingness tochange multiplier
for HEWDesigners Assumed
Performance
+
DesignersPerceived
Performance
Designercommunication
multiplier
DesignersFeedback Delay
As built HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings
Post occupancyHEW
Performance
Increase in HEWperformance by
rework
Change in HEWPerformance by
compromise
Normal DesignTime
Effect of communityconnection on design
time
Time tocompromise
Intended HEWperformance
Capabilities ofthe Industry
Increase incapabilities
Fractional capabilityincrease per rework
Effect of capabilitieson performance
Maximumcapabilities
Gap between thedesign and built HEW
performance
Gap between the as builtand post occupancy HEW
performance
Postoccupancy
perception rateof HEW
performance
OccupantsPerception Delay
Normal DesignersFeedback Delay
InitialPost-occupancy
Performance
Initial As builtHEW
Performance
Initial Capabilities
<Reworkrate>
Data DecentHomes
<ResidentsDesired
Performance>
Ratio DesignersPerceived to
Assumed Perf
-
-
<HEW Performance inHousing Policy>
<CommunityConnection>
<CommunityConnection>
+
Data Avg SAP ofNew Buildings
Fractional performanceincrease per rework
<Rework rate>
As built EnergyEfficiency
Performance ofNew Buildings
Post occupancyEE Performance
of New Buildings
Increase in EEperformance by
rework
Change in EEperformance by
compromise
Intended EEperformance
Gap between thedesign and builtEE performance
Gap between the as builtand post occupancy EE
performance
Post occupancyperception rate of
EE performance
<Rework rate>
Initial As built EEPerformance
All the performance measures here refer to the performance tags associated with new buildings,implemented by the industry.
Initial Design EEPerformance
Initial Post occupancyEE Performance
Desired EnergyEfficiency
Performance ofNew Buildings
Designed EnergyEfficiency
Performance
EE Related HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings
Net Change in EEPerformance
EE to HEWmultiplier
Change in HEWdue to EE
Ratio of very satisfiedwith accommodation
Annual carbonemissions from housing
Average SAP rating ofthe housing stock
Total SAP rating ofthe housing stock
Increase in thetotal SAP rating Decrease in the
total SAP rating
Initial Total SAPRating
<Total HousingStock>
<Demolishingrate>
<Commissioningrate>
SAP increase bynew homes
SAP increase byretrofitting
<Retrofittingrate>
Avg SAP of oldhouses
<Initial HousesRetrofitted>
<Initial NewHouses>
<Initial OldHouses>
<New Houses>
<Old houses>
<HousesRetrofitted>
Average annual carbonemission of a new house
Average annual carbonemission of an old house
Average carbonemission per household
Data Avg SAPrating
Data Avg CarbonEmissions
Retrofit performancemultiplier
Housing Supply toDemand
<New Houses>
Total RequiredHousing
<Initial NewHouses>
<As built Energy EfficiencyPerformance of New
Buildings>
Avg Energy EfficiencyPerformance of Retrofitted
Buildings
Houses RetrofittedOld houses
Retrofitting rate
Total HousingStock
<New Houses>
Demolishing rate
Contactrate
Ratio of retrofittedhouses to the total
Fractionretrofitting
Solid walled oldhouses
Initial Old Houses
Initial HousesRetrofitted
Potential Cavity andLoft insulation
DataRetrofitting rate
Constantdemolishing rate
<TIME STEP>
Visibility ofretrofitprojects
<Post occupancyHEW
Performance>
Trust multiplier forretrofitting Normal fraction
retrofitting
Compliance ofindustry with
residents desiredperformance
PerceivedCompliance
ComplianceWoM Delay
+
Normal ContactRate
Subsidizationmultiplier
Investment inenergy efficiency
measures
Reference investmentin energy efficiency
Ratio of investment toreference investment
<CommunityConnection>
<ResidentsDesired
Performance>
ResidentsKnowledge of
AvailablePerformance
Industrycompliance with
buildingregulations
<HEW Performance inHousing Policy>
<As built HEWPerformance ofNew Buildings>
ResidentsDesired
Performance
Change in ClientsKnowledge
Industry drivenKnowledge Level
LA drivenKnowledge Level
AvailableKnowledge forPerformance
Ratio of LA toIndustry
Knowledge
KnowledgeAcquisition Time
LA CommunicationMultiplier
InitialResidents
Knowledge
ResidentsKnowledge Smooth
Time
<Maximumperformance>
Max of Industry andLA Knowledge
<Post occupancyHEW Performance>
HEW Performance inHousing Policy
Adjustment Rate ofHEW Performance in
Policy
Maximumperformance
Goal adjustmenttime
<Residents DesiredPerformance>
Policymakers perceptionof residents desired
performance
Policymakersperception delay
Initial HEWPerformance inHousing Policy
Competenceof PolicyTeams Competence
increase by learningCompetence decrease
by workforce circulation
Average timespent at a role
-
+
Experientallearning+
+ Average competenceby learning
Average learningtime
InitialCompetence
Discrepancy betweenpolicymakers perception and
HEW perf in policy
Discrepancy between thepolicy makers perception and
residents desired
Effect ofcompetence on
policy adjustment
CommunityConnectionchange in community
connection
Effect of thirdspaces oncommunityconnection
Effect of thirdspaces onwellbeing
Third Spaces
+
Effect of performancegap on wellbeing
Wellbeing of residents
Net change in
wellbeing
Averagehousehold
size Effect ofcrowding onperceivedwellbeing
-
-
third spacesweight
communityconnection
weight
crowding weight
performance gapweight
wellbeingadjustment time
-
Change rate ofthird spaces
Relativeuse of third
spaces
Available funding forthird s paces
- Investment inthird spaces
Annual cost ofmaintaining third
spaces
Unit cost ofmaintaining third
spaces
Third spacesfunding gap
population
<Compliance of industrywith residents desired
performance>
Effect of performancegaps on community
connection
Initialcommunityconnection
Initial wellbeing
Indicatedcommunityconnection
time to adjus tthird spaces
IndicatedWellbeing
<Total Hous ingStock>
Initial third spaces
Ratio of thirdspaces to the
initial
Communityconnection
adjustment time
Referenceinvestment inthird spaces
Effect of communityconnection on
wellbeing
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
4th stakeholder workshop
Data sources
• Literature
• Longitudinal data (especially for comparison and initial values)
• 3 group model building workshops
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
4th stakeholder workshop
BAU simulation: Comparison to historical dataAverage Energy Efficiency Performance
Data comparison energy efficiency
1
.75
.5
.25
0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Time (Year)
Pe
r
Average Energy Efficiency Performance : BAU 1 1 1 1 1
Mean SAP Score : BAU 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
4th stakeholder workshop
BAU simulation: Comparison to historical dataAverage HEW Performance of Buildings
Data comparison HEW performance
1
.75
.5
.25
0
2 2 2
2 2 2 2 22
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Time (Year)
Pe
r
Average HEW Performance of Buildings : BAU 1 1 1 1 1
Ratio of Very Satisfied with Their Accommodation : BAU 2 2 2
Integrated decision-making about Housing Energy and Wellbeing (HEW)
4th stakeholder workshop
BAU simulation: Comparison to historical dataWellbeing of Residents
Data comparison wellbeing of residents
1
.75
.5
.25
0
2 2 21
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Time (Year)
Dm
nl
Wellbeing of Residents : BAU 1 1 1 1 1 1
Data Wellbeing : BAU 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2