Heritage's ObamaCare In Pictures

Obamacare in PicturesVisualizing the E�ects of the Patient Protection and A�ordable Care Act

Kathryn NixJohn W. FlemingSpring 2012

Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, O ce of the Actuary, January 2012 report.

Obamacare dumps millions into Medicaid and creates new federal subsidies for government-approved coverage. As a result, by the end of the decade most Americans will receive health coverage through government programs.

Obamacare expands dependence on government health care

heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures

Health Care Enrollment in 2020

Exchange Subsidies:

7.3%

Medicare:18.3%

Medicaid and CHIP:

25.1%

Other49.3%

Government50.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Millions remain uninsured under ObamacarePresident Obama promised universal coverage under his health care overhaul. However, even with Obamacare, millions of Americans will remain uninsured. Those who do gain coverage will do so primarily through government exchanges or Medicaid.

Source: Congressional Budget O�ce, March 2012 report.

Note: Figures have been rounded.


Health Coverage, With and Without Obamacare (2016)

MEDICAID

(+17million)

32million

49million

GOVERNMENT EXCHANGES

n/a

(+20million)

20million

WithoutObamacare

WithObamacare

WithoutObamacare

WithObamacare

WithoutObamacare

WithObamacare

UNINSURED

56million

26million

(–30million)

If you like your health care, can you really keep it?President Obama promised reform would not a�ect existing coverage. While it remains uncertain exactly how many Americans will lose employer-sponsored plans under Obamacare, studies show it will be millions.

Sources: Congressional Budget O�ce, March 2010; CMS O�ce of the Actuary, April 2010; The Lewin Group, June 2010; and the American Action Forum, May 2010.

Estimated Loss of Employer Coverage After Full Implementation


CMS O�ce of the Actuary

14million

Congressional Budget O�ce 11 million

The Lewin Group

17.2 million

American Action Forum

35 million

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust, Employer Health Benefits 2011 Annual Survey.

President Obama promised premiums would fall under his health law, but Americans continue to pay more every year. In fact, Obamacare is responsible for a portion of the increase in cost.

Premiums continue to rise under Obamacare


$0

$3,000

$6,000

$9,000

$12,000

$15,000

Average Annual Cost of Employer-Based Health Insurance

Family Policy20112010 20112010

Individual Policy

$15,073$13,770

+9.5%

+7.5%

$5,429$5,049

States: Obamacare is unconstitutionalTwenty-eight states have filed suits against the individual mandate and the Medicaid expansion. The issue will be settled by the Supreme Court in 2012.

Source: Independent Women’s Forum, healthcarelawsuits.org.

States joining Florida v. Dept. of Health and Human Services suitStates filingsuits separately

WY

WV

WI

WAVT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RIPA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MDDC

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZAR

AK

AL


A Medicaid monsterObamacare increases coverage by adding millions of Americans to the low-quality, low-access Medicaid program, requiring billions of dollars from state budgets.

Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Kaiser Family Foundation’s statehealthfacts.org.

Increase in Medicaid Population Under Obamacare by 2014

32.3%

23.9%

17.7%

22.8% 11.2%

40.7%34.5%

56.7%

25.1%

28%

36.1%

21.8%

17.6%

49.5%

30.7%

24.7%

17.3%

65.6%

34.5%

42.8%

24.3%

36.1%

32.5%

36.8%

43.4%

36.3%

30.8%

21.1%

23.5%

12.1%

30.9%13.3%

8.7%

29.5%

31.4%39.6%

25.7%24.7%

35.8%

22.3%

13.1%U.S. total:

30.4%

41.1%

42.6%

18.1%

21.0%

44.2%30%

36.4% 28.3%

34.3%

26.2%

WY

WV

WI

WA VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RIPA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MDDC

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZ AR

AK

AL

0% to 20%20.1% to 30%30.1% to 40%40.1% to 70%


Medicaid expansion burdens state budgetsThe cost of Obamacare’s huge Medicaid expansion will burden both federal and state governments, and states are already struggling to a�ord the program.

Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Kaiser Family Foundation’s statehealthfacts.org.

Estimated State Costs for Medicaid Expansion, 2014-2020 (millions)

$47

$166

$351

$509 $32

$754$197

$4,229

$674

$60

$523

$82

$841

$443

$389

$988

$1,884

$339

$306

$919

$72

$150

$41

$1,084

$89

$471

$524

$321

$835

$68

$515

$235

$609

$508$246

$513$1,336

$155

$188

$65U.S. total:

$33.48 billion

$1,314

$2,439

$72

$229

$533$5,419

$851 $330

$71

$425

WY

WV

WI

WA VT

VAUT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD$38DC

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZ AR

AK

AL

$30–$99$100–$499$500–$999$1,000–$1,999$2,000–$5,500


–1,000,000

–800,000

–600,000

–400,000

–200,000

0

+200,000

+400,000

+600,000

Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Establishment Survey/Haver Analytics.

Month-to-Month Net Change in Private-Sector Jobs

Jan.2009

Jan.2010

Between the recession’s low point in January 2009 and April 2010, net private-sector job growth improved at a rate of 67,000 jobs per month. After Obama signed his health care legislation into law at the end of March 2010, the improvement stalled. Over the next two years private-sector job growth improved at a rate of just 4,600 jobs per month.

Did Obamacare slow private-sector recovery?

Jan.2011

Jan.2012

TrendActual


BEFORE OBAMACAREMonthly improvement

in job-growth rates:+67,000 jobs/month

AFTER OBAMACAREMonthly improvement

in job-growth rates:+4,600 jobs/month

Taxed Enough Already? Just wait until Obamacare kicks inTo pay for generous subsidies to purchase health insurance, a huge expansion of Medicaid, and other new spending, Obamacare raises taxes and adds 17 new taxes or penalties that will a�ect all Americans.

Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Joint Committee on Taxation, March 2010 report. heritage.orgObamacare in Pictures

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

Increase in Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) tax and extension to investment income for high-income earners

Revenue from 8 other taxes

Individual and Employer Mandate penaltiesHealth insurance premium tax

Excise tax on “Cadillac” employer health plans

Fee on pharmaceutical companiesNew restrictions on HSA, FSA plansExcise tax on medical devices

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

million

Total Annual Costs of Obamacare

Taxes, 2010–2019:$502 BILLION

Obamacare’s bundle of budget gimmicks

When Obamacare was enacted, its proponents said it would reduce the deficit by $143 billion in its first decade …

… but after accounting for these budget gimmicks, the health law actually adds $698 billion to the deficit.

Source: Senate Budget Committee.

–$143billion


Double-counted

Medicare savings

+$400billion

Unpaid-for “doc fix”

+$208billion

Unaccounted-for cost of

implementation

+$115billion

Revenue from the

failed CLASS

program

+$70billion

Double-counted savings

from Social Security payroll taxes

+$29billion

Unrelated student

loan savings

+$19billion

The Health Care Intiative is one of 10 Transformational Initiatives making up The Heritage Foundation’s Leadership for America campaign. For more products and information related to these Initiatives or to learn more about the Leadership for American campaign, please visit heritage.org.

The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institution—a think tank—whose mission is to formu-late and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.

As conservatives, we believe the values and ideas that motivated our Founding Fathers are worth conserving. As policy entrepreneurs, we believe the most effective solutions are consistent with those ideas and values.

214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE • Washington, DC 20002-4999(202) 546-4400 • heritage.org

Heritage's ObamaCare In Pictures

News & Politics

Transcript of Heritage's ObamaCare In Pictures