Henk van Schaik - Water and Climate Change, Bridging Gaps
Transcript of Henk van Schaik - Water and Climate Change, Bridging Gaps
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Water and Climate Change
AQUA 2009Integrated Water Resource Management and Climate
ChangeCali, November 9, 2009
Water and Climate Change
Bridging Gaps
Henk van Schaik
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CPWC� Started 2001 after Third Assessment Report of IPCC
� 2001 – 2005: Building awareness on climate variability and change– International events: WWF, WWW, IWA
– Documentation: books and films
– Local dialogues
� Since 2005: Towards operational responses– International events: WWF, WWW, COP, IWA, WASH, Mediterranean– International events: WWF, WWW, COP, IWA, WASH, Mediterranean
– Information and expertise: Expert Pools and clearing houses WCC, Nairobi Work Programme. DFID, EC,
– Network building of practitioners: Connecting Delta Cities
– Adaptation programmes: Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Bangladesh
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Coping with climate change:top priority
Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. No issue is more fundamental to long-term global prosperity. And no issue is more essential to our survival as a species is more essential to our survival as a species Summit on Climate Change for Heads of States and Governments,
New York, 22 September, 2009
IPCC 2007: By 2020 50 % yield loss in rain fed agric; by 2050 200 million
people displaced because of climate; snow melt affecting one billion
people.
Climate change became a top priority in less than 10 years
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C(H)openhagen???
� Commitments to mitigation ……how much and by whom? % of reduction and finance
� Adaptation: vulnerability of LDCs� Adaptation: vulnerability of LDCs
� Finance: polluter pays or from ODA budgets
� Europe agreed on 20 billion/annum from 2020 and 5-7 billion for developing countries on voluntary basis immediately for mitigation and adaptation
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COP-15 and Adaptation policies …
COP-15:
� NAPAs regularly to be updated
� Vulnerable areas including:– Least Developed Countries
– Small island Developing States– Small island Developing States
– Countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods
� Capacity building: Nairobi Work Programme
� Adaptation Fund: 70 % for LDCs, SIDS and countries in Africa, and 30 % for Disasters
Water as medium, water as sector….
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Water is the medium……..
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WE NEED MORE THAN JUST
LOOKING AT THE PROBLEM
RES8552
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Climate Change and Water:
Facts and Forecasts
Climate Change and Water:The IPCC Technical Report
June 2008reviewed scientific articles till end 2005
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What is the IPCC?Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Scientific intergovernmental body set up by WMO and UNEP
- governments are members of IPCC
- scientists contribute to IPCC assessments
IPCC does not conduct research: it’s role is to IPCC does not conduct research: it’s role is to assess research
IPCC reports are policy-relevant, but policy-neutral
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Emission scenarios Globalisation
A1 Balanced
A1 Fossil
A1 TechnologyB1
Economic Golden Age Sustainable development
Globalisation
A1 Balanced
A1 Fossil
A1 TechnologyB1
Economic Golden Age Sustainable development
Emphasis on sustainability
and equityEmphasis on material wealth
Regionalisation
B2A2 Regional solutions
Cultural diversity
Emphasis on sustainability
and equityEmphasis on material wealth
Regionalisation
B2A2 Regional solutions
Cultural diversity
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Future projections of climate change
� Best estimate of low emission scenario (B1) is 1.8 ºC (range 1.1-2.9)
� Best estimate of high emission scenario A1F1 is 4.0 ºC (range 2.4-6.4)
� Hardly any differences between scenarios for the scenarios for the near future
IPCC 2007
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Climate change effects on water resources
Growth in population, energy demand, changes in technological and land-sue/cover
Greenhouse gases emissions
Energy-economy models
Carbon cycle and other chemical
Atmospheric GHGs concentrations
Future hydrological projections
Carbon cycle and other chemical models
Climate models
Future climate projections
Hydrological + hydraulic models
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� Precipitation will probably – Increase in the high latitudes
– Decrease in most sub-tropical regions
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Change in average runoff
A1b emissions scenario, multi-model ensemble mean, change by 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999. White areas denote regions with little agreement
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• 80% of future stress frompopulation
& development,
Water Stress Changes
to 2025
Vörösmarty et al. 2000
& development, •Climate change additional!
UNH
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IPCC Technical Paper on Water
Figure 5.8: Trends in annual rainfall in (a) South America (1960–2000). An increase is shown by a plus sign, a decrease
by a circle; bold values indicate significance at P ≤ 0.05 (reproduced from Haylock et al. (2006) with permission from
the American Meteorological Society). (b) Central America and northern South America (1961–2003). Large red triangles
indicate positive significant trends, small red triangles indicate positive non-significant trends, large blue triangles indicate
negative significant trends, and small blue triangles indicate negative non-significant trends (reproduced from Aguilar et al.
(2005) with permission from the American Geophysical Union. [WGII Figure 13.1]
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Areal extent of Chacaltaya Glacier, Bolivia, from 1940 to 2005. By 2005, the glacier had separated into
three distinct small bodies. The position of the ski hut, which did not exist in 1940, is indicated with a
red cross. The ski lift had a length of about 800 m in 1940 and about 600 m in 1996 (shown by a
continuous line in 1940 and a broken line in all other panels) and was normally installed during the
precipitation season. After 2004, skiing was no longer possible.
Photo credits: Francou and Vincent (2006) and Jordan (1991). [WGII Figure 1.1]
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Current trends in precipitation (WGII Table 13.2)
Change shown in % unless otherwise indicated
Period Percentage
Amazonia – northern/southern (Marengo, 2004) 1949–1999 -11 to -17 / -23 to
1949-1999 -11 to – 17/-23 to +18
Bolivian Amazonia (Ronchail et al., 2005) Since 1970 +15
Argentina – central and north-east (Penalba and Vargas, 2004)
1900–2000 +1 SD to +2 SD
Uruguay (Bidegain et al., 2005) 1961-2002 +20
Chile – central (Camilloni, 2005) last 50 years -50
Colombia (Pabón, 2003) 1961–1990 -4 to +6
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Table 5.6: Increase in the numbers of people living in
waterstressed watersheds in Latin America (million) based on the
HadCM3 GCM (Arnell, 2004). [WGII Table 13.6]
1995 2025 2055
Scenario and GCM
Without With Without With
A1 22,2 35,7 21,0 54,0 60
A2 22,2 55,9 37-66 149,3 60 - 100
B1 22,2 35,7 22 54,0 74
B2 22,2 47,3 7-77 59,4 62
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Conclusions IPCC …
Climate change is unequivocal; it is another driver of change such as population growth and economic development.
IPCC also identifies knowledge gaps:
paucity of information particularly hydrological information
understanding of links between global climate models and local
hydrological models
Knowledge on groundwater resources
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Camarón que se duerme, se lo lleva la changada
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A New Planning Uncertainty
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Joint Egyptian-Dutch Water Conference Towards the new Long Term Strategy for Water in the MediterraneanCairo, Egypt 2 and 3 November 2009Organised by Egypt, Netherlands, CPWC, APP and GWP-Med
Cairo Message to COP-15
Coping with climate change is managing water for life
A strong and fair agreement in Copenhagen at the fifteenth Conference of Parties (COP-15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change is crucial for water resources, water services and for life.
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Issues
Climate and Water– Development, Water and Climate
– Beyond the water box
– Governance
– Information
– Adaptive Management
– Finance
See Stockholm message
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Climate change in the context of water and development …
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Population projection Nile countries
Projected population (million)
100
120
140
160
180 Egypt
Ethiopia
Eritrea
Sudan
Uganda
0
20
40
60
80
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Uganda
Congo
Kenya
Tanzania
Burundi
Rwanda
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1950
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
Analysis by Munich ReData:
U.N. Population Division
2015
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4000
5000
6000Water Use in km̂3 per year
AgricultureIndustryHouseholdsReservoiresTotal
Meeting growing global water demands
0
1000
2000
3000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Water Use in km̂3 per year
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Worldwide Water Use by Region
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
EuropeNorth AmericaAfricaAsiaSouth AmericaAustralia& Pacific
31
0
500
1000
1500
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
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120
140
160
180
200
Direct economic losses [mld. US$]
economic losses
(in values of 2006)
insured losses
(in values of 2006)
trend economic losses
trend insured losses
Historic losses from weather disasters 1950-2005
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© 2007 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re
0
20
40
60
80
100
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Direct economic losses [mld. US$]
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…and realities
Developing countries and countries in transition: – MDGs and poverty alleviation are the priority
– Barely able to cope with present climate variability;
– Improving operations (leakages, payments, water efficiency) a step towards coping with CC
– Need for more storage (No Regret measures)
Climate specific measures in hot spots– Climate information and hydrological information scarce
– Limited professional/sectoral capacity
– Need for technology transfer
– Need for better planning (bankable)
– Needs additional funding and external support
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local, country and regional adaptationcategories
1. Best practises and no regret in– Irrigation
– Drinking water
– Water for energy
2. Climate specific measures in “ hot spots” including”– Arid areas
– Low lying coastal delta’s
– Mountainous areas affected by glacier melt
– Small islands
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Elements for developing an
adaptation strategy .
Information needs
Policy, legal and institutional framework
Understand the vulnerability
Information needs
Policy, legal and institutional framework
Understand the vulnerability
Convention of the Protection and Use of
Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes
Impact assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Financial arrangements
Evaluate
Development of measures
Impact assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Financial arrangements
Evaluate
Development of measures
h1
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Diapositiva 35
h1 hvanschaik, 06/04/2009
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Netherlands: Climate proofing concept in water….
“The climate is changing and we should make our country climate proof. The national
government together with science, policy and other stakeholders”
Jan-Peter Balkenende - DutchPrime Minister, november 2005”
Science - Policyinteraction
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Assignment
W Advice on protecting the coast and
the entire low lying part of the
Netherlands against the
consequences of climate change
on a time scale of 2100 –2200on a time scale of 2100 –2200
W Wider scope than only safety, multifunctional approach
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Committee on Sustainable Coastal Development
� Advice on protecting the coast and the entire low lying part of the Netherlands against the consequences of climate change on a time scale of
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change on a time scale of 2100 –2200
� Wider scope than only safety, multifunctionalapproach
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Opening the
“water box”
Decision-making affecting water
(Figure 1.1)
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Global Earth Observation System of Systems Global Earth Observation System of Systems
(GEOSS)(GEOSS)
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Lack of information and data
at a time when we need it more than ever to
deal with increasing complexity
Distribution of Global Runoff Data Centre streamflow gauges (Figure 13.1)
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World Climate Conference31 August – 4 September 2009, Geneva
� Decides to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and and application of science-based climate prediction and services.
� But no silver bullet on climate information…..
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National adaptation strategies
� Colombia: – Andean highlands ecosystems
– Sea level rise 2-5 mm/year
– Vector born diseases e.g. Dengue
� Peru:– Local projects, no indication of specific issues
� Brazil– Agriculture
– Coastal
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Sea level rise: “plausible high end scenarios”
� 2100: + 0.55 - 1.20 m
� (0.65 – 1.35 incl. soil subs.)
� Key importance of adaptive
management: adapataion
measures must be flexible,
no-regret (robust) and hand
in hand with monitoring &
ability to incorporate new
scientific insifghts
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Concept of water security
Probability of
ThresholdThreshold Water security
Probability of
low extremesProbability of
high
extremes
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± 1 SDThreshold Threshold
Probability of
high extremesProbability of
low extremes
An increase in mean and variance of run off imply a nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes, which requires to adjust design criteria
Mean T0
LJM,2002
New Mean
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� Precise and exact information on impacts is not and will never be made available. N o silver bullet.
� Adaptation is about dealing with uncertainties and risks
� Principles for adaptation measures for credible future:– Robustness
– Flexibility
– Resilience
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Adaptation measures:
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� Protection by a “ring of floodgates”
� New perspectives for nature restoration, outside the dikes
� Development of urban waterfronts
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Costs< 2050:
1,2 tot 1,6 billion euro /yr
2050 – 2100:
0,9 tot 1,5 billion euro /yr
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0,9 tot 1,5 billion euro /yr
Beach nourishment for coastal land reclamation: 0.1 – 0.3 billion euro/yr
(GNP = 550 billion euro/yr)
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52a global network for water professionals
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Membrane Bio-Reactors
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Climate change and water management
� Climate change is additional to other changes including population growth, economic development, natural variability.
� Ensure availability and make use of credible climate scenario relevant to the specific hot spot need (coastal protection, agriculture, navigation, the specific hot spot need (coastal protection, agriculture, navigation, hydropower, drinking water supply, ecosystems).
� Political debate (beyond water) on risk management is essential at local (urban), national, regional (transboundary) and global level.
� Adaptive Management is top down structural and engineering measures in combination with bottom up building with nature, stakeholder involvement
�
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mitigate... .. and adapt!Prevent
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www.waterandclimate.orgThank You