1Help wanted: salaries, affordability and the exodus of labour from Metro VancouverMay 2015

Highlights MetroVancouversfuturegrowthisdependentontheavailabilityofhigh-qualitylabour,whichisnowthreatened

bytherapidincreaseinthecostofliving,drivenprimarilybyunaffordablehousing.

Millennialsarethenextgenerationofworkersandarehighlyeducatedandverymobile.Upto93percentofMillennialsplantoownahomesometimeinthefuture.MetroVancouvershousingcrisiswillmotivatethisgrouptomigrateawayinsearchofbetteropportunities,leadingtoalabourcrisis.

Oneprimarycauseisthatsalariesarenotkeepingpacewithincreasedhousingcosts.Between2001and2014,thecostofMetroVancouverhousingincreasedby63percent,whilesalariesonlyroseby36.2percent.

Thehighcostofhousingisalreadypricingmanyin-demandworkersoutofMetroVancouver.Onaverage,thesalaryrequiredtomaintaintheaveragemortgageintheregionis$78,088.Manyoccupationsthattheprovincereliesuponforitseconomicenginedonotmeetthisthreshold.

Inthefuture,Vancouverhousingisprojectedtoriseby4.87percentayear,butslowsalarygrowthwillcontinue:wagerategrowthforin-demandoccupationswillriseonlybetween0.6percentand3.2percent.

By2020,82of88in-demandjobswillbeunabletoaffordasingle-familyhomeinMetroVancouver.

By2025,85of88in-demandjobswillbeunabletoaffordtoliveinMetroVancouver.Onlythoseindividualsworkingasseniorbusinessmanagers,seniorconstructionmanagersandengineeringmanagerswillbeabletomaintainaffordablehousing.

Intenyears,mostindividualsmayforgoacareeropportunityintheregionandrelocatetoadifferentlabourmarket.Ifthereisanabundanceofoutwardmigration,alabourcrisiswilloccur.

Make Good Money (TM) is a trademark of Vancouver City Savings Credit Union.

2Agrowingandvibranteconomycreatesincreaseddemandforworkerstofuelthatgrowth.High-quality,highlyskilledlabourisavitalfactorofproduction,especiallyinaknowledge-intensiveeconomysuchasVancouvers.MorethanonemillionnewworkersareexpectedtobeneededinBritishColumbiaby2022,witharound640,000requiredintheMainland/Southwestregionalone.iBusinessgrowthandmaintenanceofqualitypublicservicesaredependentuponaddingthesejobstotheworkforce.Butwhatiftherearenoworkerstofillthesenewpositions?

Labourisrequiredtoturncapitalintogrowth.However,aconcerningtrendisemerging:anever-increasingcostoflivinginMetroVancouver,ledbythehighcostofhousing,isthreateningtheregionsabilitytoattractworkers.BecauseofthecurrentcrisisinMetroVancouvershousing

economics,thefuturelabourmarketholdsasignificantriskofdecreasedsupplyifnothingchanges,fewerandfewercandidateswillbeansweringemployersHelpWantedsigns.

The impact of housing on the job market for MillennialsTheemergingclassofMillennialsthosebornfromabout1980to2000areknowledgeworkersthatareincreasinglymobile.Oneoftheprimaryfactorsthatpotentialemployeesconsiderwhenpursuinganewjobisnetincome,notgrosssalary.Ifthecostoflivinginaparticularareaistoohigh,thenworkersarelikelytolookelsewheretomaximizetheirdisposableincome.Theprimaryindicatoroflong-termcostoflivingishousingaffordability.

Thereisampleevidencelinkinghousingaffordabilityproblemswithlabourshortages.InmanyoftherecentlabourmarketdemandandsupplyanalysesconductedbyRoslynKuninandAssociates,oneofthemajordetrimentsinemployeerecruitmentandretentionhasbeenthehighcostofhousing.iiForexample,arecentnewsarticlereportedthatbodyarmourmanufacturerPacificSafetyProductsInc.[is]closingitsremainingoperationsinKelownaandmovingtoOttawa,citinglabourshortagesduetothesoaringcostofhousinginBritishColumbia.iii

Contrarytopopularbelief,Millennialsarejustaslikelytoaspiretohomeownershipaspreviousgenerations.Lastyear,MillennialsmadeupthelargestgroupofrecentbuyersintheU.S.market(32%)andover80%ofmillennialandGenXbuyersconsiderhomepurchaseagoodfinancialinvestment.ivThistrendismirrorednorthoftheborder:Yconic/Uthinksurveyed1,538English-speakingCanadians

aged15to33,andalmostallthosesurveyedsaidtheyplantobuyahomeatsomepointintheirlives.v

Millennialsareverymobileandthemosthighlyeducatedgenerationever,viandfuturelabourmarketsdependonwooingtheseworkers.Areaswithahighcostoflivingduetoincreasinglyunaffordablehousingwillbeatasignificantdisadvantageinthenearfuture.ItisentirelylikelythatthisdesirewillmotivateMillennialstomigrateawayfromMetroVancouverinsearchofbetteropportunities.Infact,theknifeedgeofthattrendhasalreadystarted:in2013,Vancouversufferedanetlossof1,571residentsinthe20to30agegroup,upfrom770theyearbefore.viiThisnetoutflowisnotsurprisingwhengrowthinincomesissodramaticallylaggingbehindgrowthinkeyexpenses.

Incomes: salary growth stagnating in B.C. Between2001and2014,averagehourlywageratesforfull-timeworkintheprovincehavegrown36.2%,whichequatesto2.2%peryear.viiiHowever,duetotheunderlyinglabourmarketperformanceofdifferentsectors,certainoccupationalgroupshaveexperiencedahigherthanaveragewagerategrowth.

The top five occupational groups for growth are in:

art, culture, recreation and sports (59.9%) management (46.2%) senior management (39.2%) primary industry (38.8%) the health professions, including nurse supervisors and

registered nurses (38.0%) total employed, all occupations

170.0

150.0

130.0

110.0

90.02001 2013201020072004

index(2001=100)

Highest five wage growth

Source:StatisticsCanada.Table282-0070-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS)

3Althoughsomeoccupationshaveexperiencedabove-averagewagegrowthduringthistimeperiod,notalllabourershaveseentheirincomesgrowatthislevel.Thebottomfiveoccupationalgroupsforgrowtharelistedbelow.

Furthermore,salarygrowthseemstobeslowing.Five-yearpeakgrowthduringtheperiodwasbetween2005and2009,withsalariesrisingonaverage3%peryear.Yetthelastfiveyears(2010to2014)haveonlyseengrowthof1.3%peryear.Thistrendrevealsstagnatingsalarygrowthprovince-wide,resultinginlessdisposableincomeforresidentsasexpensesrise.

Expenses: salaries are not keeping pace with the housing market Whileaveragewageshaveincreased36.2%between2001and2014,averagehomeresalevalueinMetroVancouverhasrisenbyalmost63%overthesameperiod.ThisissueismoststarkintheCityofVancouver,wherevalueshaverisenby211%.ThismeansthatmortgagepaymentsonanewlypurchasedhomeinVancouverarecostingtheaveragehouseholdalmost76%ofitsgrossannualincome.Thefactthatthehousingmarketissodramaticallyoutpacingwageincreasesiscauseforconcern.Asaresult,theremaybedemandforcertainoccupationsinMetroVancouverbutthoseoccupationsmaynotpayemployees

Lowest five wage growth

140.0

130.0

120.0

110.0

100.0

90.02001 2013201020072004

index(2001=100)

Source:StatisticsCanada.Table282-0070-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS)

In Vancouver, between 2001 and 2014:

Average wages have increased 36.2% Average home values have increased 211%

enoughtofinanceasustainablelifestyle.Comparingcurrentmarketratesforhousingandforlabourcandeterminewhichoccupationscanorcannotaffordtoliveintheregion.

BasedontheB.C.governmentsrecentemploymentoutlook,ixsomeofthejobsthatareprojectedtogeneratethehighestdemandinMetroVancouverincludesuchoccupationsascomputerprogrammers,tradescontractors,registerednursesandadministrativeofficers.Butiseconomicgrowthpossibleiftheseworkerscannotaffordhousinginthearea?Tomeasurethis,amodelwassetuptocomparemedianemploymentincomeofoccupationswithaveragehousingcost.

In2014,theaverageMetroVancouverresalepropertycost$713,125.xAftera20%down-payment,thispurchasepricetranslatesintoamonthlymortgagecommitmentof$3,280atcurrentrates.Tomaintaindebt-loadatanaffordablelevel,thehouseholdwouldneedtomake$123,000peryear.Correctingforthefactthat57.5%ofBritishColumbiahouseholdsaredual-earning,theaffordabilitythresholdperearnerbecomes$78,088.1AnalyzingjobsthathaveamedianincomeoverthisthresholdcandeterminewhichoccupationscanactuallyaffordrealestateinMetroVancouver.

Comparingthisthresholdwiththeprovincialestimationofhighdemandjobsto2022,itbecomesobviousthatthesalarylevelsofjobsrequiredforeconomicgrowtharetoolowtoallowtheseworkerstoliveaffordably.Thefollowingisalistoftheseprojectedhigh-demandoccupations.Thoseshadedcurrentlydonotmeettheaffordabilitythresholdtopurchaseahome.

clerical occupations, including supervisors (27.6%) some sales and service occupations (25.0% ) technical, assisting and related occupations in health (24.5%) childcare and home support workers (21.8%) labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities (10.4%) total employed, all occupations

1Couple-familyhouseholdswithchildren:24.4%;Couple-familyhouseholdswithoutchildren:30.2%;Multiple-familyhouseholds:2.9%.StatisticsCanada,CensusmetropolitanareaofVancouver,BritishColumbia.AccessedMay15,2015.www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/fogs-spg/Facts-cma-eng.cfm?LANG=Eng&GK=CMA&GC=933

4Management occupations

Seniormanagers-financial,communicationsandotherbusinessservices $143,624.90

Seniormanagers-construction,transportation,productionandutilities $131,237.15

Engineeringmanagers $124,047.11

Managersintransportation $82,355.81

Constructionmanagers $81,453.03

Facilityoperationandmaintenancemanagers $69,307.84

Accommodationservicemanagers $51,384.82

Homebuildingandrenovationmanagers $49,146.35

Restaurantandfoodservicemanagers $41,793.54

Business, finance and administration occupations

Professionaloccupationsinbusinessmanagementconsulting $71,155.54

Humanresourcesprofessionals $70,261.86

Financialauditorsandaccountants $64,403.74

Professionaloccupationsinadvertising,marketingandpublicrelations $60,241.77

Purchasingagentsandofficers $58,926.99

Executiveassistants $58,807.16

Propertyadministrators $53,098.52

Administrativeofficers $50,005.63

Legaladministrativeassistants $49,177.61

Accountingtechniciansandbookkeepers $45,073.18

Administrativeassistants $44,119.94

Accountingandrelatedclerks $44,045.97

Generalofficesupportworkers $43,887.03

Receptionists $35,695.17

Natural and applied sciences and related occupations

Electricalandelectronicsengineers $95,522.54

Civilengineers $86,711.29

Mechanicalengineers $86,073.48

Inspectorsinpublicandenvironmentalhealthandoccupationalhealthandsafety $76,148.74

Computerprogrammersandinteractivemediadevelopers $74,319.05

Constructioninspectors $72,821.16

Electricalandelectronicsengineeringtechnologistsandtechnicians $68,663.57

Draftingtechnologistsandtechnicians $57,453.54

5Health occupations

Specialistphysicians $112,056.12

Generalpractitionersandfamilyphysicians $82,863.43

Medicalsonographers $76,668.65

Registerednursesandregisteredpsychiatricnurses $74,710.22

Medicalradiationtechnologists $72,450.23

Physiotherapists $70,083.52

Medicallaboratorytechnologists $69,467.98

Audiologistsandspeech-languagepathologists $68,511.97

Occupationaltherapists $63,166.47

Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services

Lawyers $109,333.80

Universityprofessorsandlecturers $95,972.54

Policeofficers(exceptcommissioned) $92,485.99

Firefighters $85,754.04

Collegeandothervocationalinstructors $76,931.33

Socialworkers $65,995.49

Businessdevelopmentofficersandmarketingresearchersandconsultants $65,707.57

Healthpolicyresearchers,consultantsandprogramofficers $64,887.59

Family,marriageandotherrelatedcounsellors $58,916.76

Socialandcommunityserviceworkers $44,157.19

Earlychildhoodeducatorsandassistants $31,662.68

Homechildcareproviders $19,713.63

Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport

Authorsandwriters $54,063.06

Interiordesignersandinteriordecorators $45,307.09

Programleadersandinstructorsinrecreation,sportandfitness $32,135.33

Sales and service occupations

Retailandwholesalebuyers $50,116.85

Chefs $40,331.16

Retailsalessupervisors $38,358.03

Retailsalespersons $34,915.73

Securityguardsandrelatedsecurityserviceoccupations $34,723.05

Bakers $33,150.66

Cooks $29,163.50

Foodandbeverageservers $20,008.35

6Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations

Industrialelectricians $85,786.04

Contractorsandsupervisors,heavyequipmentoperatorcrews $77,215.62

Constructionmillwrightsandindustrialmechanics $76,786.87

Heavy-dutyequipmentmechanics $76,580.35

Steamfitters,pipefittersandsprinklersysteminstallers $75,784.15

Craneoperators $70,790.26

Gasfitters $67,947.53

Machinistsandmachiningandtoolinginspectors $65,552.11

Heavyequipmentoperators(exceptcrane) $65,435.53

Electricians(exceptindustrialandpowersystem) $65,366.36

Contractorsandsupervisors,carpentrytrades $64,657.71

Contractorsandsupervisors,otherconstructiontrades,installers,repairersandservicers

$63,939.02

Weldersandrelatedmachineoperators $59,703.09

Plumbers $57,573.65

Sheetmetalworkers $57,546.17

Transporttruckdrivers $56,251.54

Concretefinishers $49,070.25

Carpenters $47,191.03

Residentialandcommercialinstallersandservicers $45,182.69

Materialhandlers $45,155.23

Paintersanddecorators(exceptinteriordecorators) $43,646.49

Plasterers,drywallinstallersandfinishersandlathers $42,346.76

Deliveryandcourierservicedrivers $38,263.59

Taxiandlimousinedriversandchauffeurs $29,501.49

Occupations in manufacturing and utilities

Powerengineersandpowersystemsoperators $85,423.27

WiththerisingcostofhousinginMetroVancouver,manyofthemoremoderatelypaidoccupationsarealreadyfindingthemselvespricedoutoftherealestatemarket.Asmentioned,theimbalancebetweenoccupationalincomesandhousingexpensesisakeyindicatoroftheeconomicviabilityofaregion.Couldthisresultinaneconomicstagnationinthefuture?Thispossibilitybecomesevenmoreclearascurrenttrendsareprojectedforwards.

Looking forward: what professions will be able to afford Metro Vancouver? Iftrendscontinue,moreandmoreoccupationswillbepricedoutoftheMetroVancouvermarket.Thereport,

Downsizing the Canadian Dream: Homeownership Realities for Millennials and BeyondpublishedbyVancityindicatesthatifhousingmarketscontinuetheircurrentrise,theaverageMetroVancouverresalepricewillreachalmost$1.5millionby2030.xiThecityofVancouveritselfwillseeaveragepricesof$2.2million.Yet,withoccupationalemploymentdemandexpectedintheMetroVancouverlabourmarket,wage-rategrowthforin-demandoccupationswillonlyrisebetween0.6%and3.2%.Asthegapbetweenhousingcostsandsalariesincreases,fewerindividualswillbeabletoaffordtoliveintheregion.

By2020,82of88in-demandjobswillbeunabletoaffordasingle-familyhomeinMetroVancouver.Bythistime,someverynotableprofessionswillfinditsignificantlymore

Source:StatisticsCanada-2011NationalHouseholdSurvey,valuesupdatedto2014figuresbyVancity.

7difficulttoaffordproperty,includingindustrialelectricians,civilengineers,constructionmanagers,policeofficers,firefightersandgeneralpractitioners.Theoccupationswhichwillmakemorethantherequired$101,238peryeararelistedbelow.

By2025,onlythreeoccupationsremainonthelistmakingenoughfromtheiremploymenttoaffordhousinginMetroVancouver:$125,692.Atthispoint,lawyers,electricalengineersandspecialistphysiciansfalloffthelist.

Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services $ 164,095.18

Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities $ 149,941.86

Engineering managers $ 141,727.05

Specialist physicians $ 117,168.27

Lawyers $ 113,736.39

Electrical and electronics engineers $ 105,538.70

Occupation 2020 est.

Thefactistherateofprojectedwagegrowthisnotanywhereasfastastherateoftheprojectedpriceincreaseofasingle-familyhomeinMetroVancouver.Ifhousepricescontinuetheirincreaseatthespeedthathasbeenobservedduringtherecentpast,eventhebest-payingjobswillbeunabletokeepup.

Implications and costs of inaction ThehousingaffordabilityrealitiesfacedbyMillennialscouldleadtoseveralscenariosinthelabourmarket.

Giventhisresearch,mostindividualsmayforgoacareeropportunityintheregionandrelocatetoadifferentlabourmarket.Ifthereisanabundanceofoutwardmigration,alabourcrisiswilloccur.

Employerswhoarecommittedtoattractingandkeepingthebrightesttalentwillhavetopaymoreinwagesortoprovideothercreativenon-wagebenefits,althoughitwillstillbedifficulttokeeppacewiththepriceofhousing.Thisincreasesthecostofdoingbusinessintheregion.Someofthatcostwillbepassedontoconsumers,furtherincreasingthecostofliving.

Individualsmaycontinuetolivewiththehighcostofhousing,forgoingexpensestopursueothernecessities,suchasRESPandRRSPsavings.

Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services $ 183,365.48

Senior managers - construction, transportation, production and utilities $ 167,550.08

Engineering managers $ 158,370.57

Occupation 2025 est.

Individualswithintheregionmayadopttypesofhousingarrangementswithintheregionthataremoreaffordable,suchasrenting,orfindotheruniquelivingarrangementsthatsharethehighcostofhousingamongmultiplehouseholds.

Today,Millennialsfacechallengesandbarriersthatseeminsurmountabletoovercome.Theystillfacethelingeringeffectsfromthe2008globalfinancialcrisis,havingstayedinthepost-secondaryeducationsystemlongerthanpreviousgenerationsinthehopeoffindingbetteremploymentopportunities.Inreality,theyfaceameagrelabourmarket.MetroVancouverssky-rocketinghousepricescanonlyservetobeadetrimentforthoseseriousaboutestablishingacareerintheregion.

Ahealthyeconomyisreflectedbyitscitizenswhoareproductive,byitsbusinesscommunitywhichisvibrantandprovidingarealchoiceofcareersandopportunities,byitspublicserviceswhichsupportaqualitylifestyle,andbyalabourmarketthatisfunctioningtomaximizeitsresourcesthehumancapital.

MetroVancouverisincreasinglybecomingaregionalhubfortrans-Pacifictradeandfinancialservices.Itisalsorapidlydevelopingintoatechnologycentre.xiiTodevelopintoasustainableeconomyintheseareas,theregionrequiresahealthysupplyofthehighlyskilled,highlyvalue-addingprofessionals,andoccupationsthatarelesser

8skilled,lesserpaidyetfunctionallyjustasimportant.Thisistheonlywaytocreateacompetitiveedgeinthefuture.

Pastresearchhasshownthatinefficienturbanlabourmarketsresultinanunderperformingurbaneconomy:resourcesarenotallocatedtothemostproductiveusesand,overtime,thereisalossinpotentialeconomicoutput.Theseeffectsarenotconfinedtoadepressedemploymentsectorinanurbaneconomy,inefficiencyinonesectorresultsinwidespreadnegativeeffectsforall.

Labourmarketinefficiencyoccurswhentheavailabilityoflabourorthedistributionoflabourdonotreachtheirbestallocation.Theformerreferstothelackofskilledlabourrequired.Thelatterreferstothelackofaccesstolabouratthemostefficientcost.Ineithercase,theynegativelyimpactthepaceofgrowthintheeconomyand,therefore,thecompetitivenessoftheeconomy.

TherecentConferenceBoardofCanadareport,Skills for Success: Occupations, Credentials, and Skills for a Prosperous B.C.quantifiedtheeconomicimpactofpotentialskillsgapsinthelabourmarket.Itconcludedthat:

SkillsgapsassociatedwithloweducationalattainmentamongmanyB.C.residentscosttheprovincialeconomyupto$4.7billionannuallyinforegoneGDPaswellas$775millioninfederaltaxrevenuesand$616millioninprovincialtaxrevenues.

UnderutilizationoftheskillsofhighlyeducatedBritishColumbiansmaycosttheprovinceupto$1.3billioninforegoneGDPannuallyaswellas$212millioninfederaltaxrevenuesand$169millioninprovincialtaxrevenues.

Firm-levelimpactsofskillsgapsandmismatchesincludeinconsistentproductandservicequality,lowerproductivity,lowersales,lossofnewopportunities,andlowerprofits.

Individual-levelimpactsofskillsdeficitsincludehigherunemployment,lowerearnings,poorerphysicalandmentalhealth,weakercommunityengagementandlowerlifesatisfaction.

A2010reportalsobytheConferenceBoardofCanadaconcludedthat:

Currently, there is an appreciable shortage of good-quality, advantageously located, and affordable housing in Canada. This shortage is having a detrimental effect on Canadians health, which, in turn, reduces their productivity, limits our national competitiveness, and indirectly drives up the cost of health care and welfare.xiii

WhiletheConferenceBoardofCanadastudyemphasizedthesocio-economicimpactoflackofaffordablehousing,anAustralianstudyhasshowndirectlinksbetweenhousingaffordabilityandlabourmarketefficiency,orhousingunaffordabilityandlabourmarketinefficiency:

Housing markets, it is feared, are pricing low and moderate income households out of job-rich areas and injecting a spatial dimension to supply-side constraints on economic growth. Moderately paid workers essential to the smooth functioning of the urban economy are less able to find and keep employment. Spatial dislocation of housing and labour markets also increases the probability of job informational deficits and asymmetries and job search costs, imposing further efficiency costs on the economy. Poor housing affordability, in this view, results in both increasing housing stress (housing-related poverty) and urban economic inefficiency.xiv

Recommendations Asthisreporthasfound,oneoftheprimarycausesofalabourcrisisinMetroVancouverwillbethehighcostoflivingdrivenbyunaffordablehousing.Toavoidthis,policyandbehaviourresponsesshouldfocusonwaysofimprovingaccesstofutureworkers,bothbyreducingthecostofhousingaswellasincreasingsalaries.Theseresponseswillnotaddresstheequallypressingissueofensuringthateducationandskillsmatchfuturesupplyanddemand.

For government:

Inclusionary zoning: Buildaffordabilitytargetsintomunicipalzoningbylawsrightfromtheoutsetthroughinclusionaryzoning.Thisgivesdeveloperstherighttodevelopmarkethousingonlyiftheyincludeacertainamountofnon-markethousinginthedevelopment.Inclusionaryzoningdiffersfrombonusdensity,whichrewardsdeveloperswithadditionalmarket-ratedevelopmentdensitytodevelopmarketcondosinexchangeforbelow-marketratecontributionstheymaketodeliveringaffordablehousingunits(and/orothercommunityamenitieslikelibraries,childcare,publicart,etc.).Integratingbelow-markethousingoptionsintodevelopmentrightshelpstomanagethelandvalue.

Rental housing tax incentives:Thefederalgovernmentshouldproviderentalhousingtaxincentivestoownersoflong-term,purpose-builtrentalhousingtomakedevelopmentofrentalhousingascompetitiveasmarketcondominiums.Thisformofincentivewouldencouragebetterlocationandmaintenanceofrentalhousingbyenablingcompetitionbetweendevelopersfortaxcredits.

9Land lease renewals:Manyexistingaffordablehousingdevelopmentsinparticular,not-for-profithousingco-operativeswerebuiltonlandsecuredunderlong-termleasesfrommunicipalitiesorothergovernmentagenciesandarecomingupforrenewalinthenext10to15years.Theleasesforaffordablehousingstockthatexistonpubliclandsshouldberenewedand,whereappropriate,coupledwitharedevelopmentapproachthatmaximizesaffordableandcommunity-ownedunitsonthesite.

Repurposing public and community-owned land: Thereissignificantinventoryofurbanlandownedbypublicagenciesandcommunity-basedorganizations(includingchurches,legions,not-for-profitorganizations,etc.).Thislandbaseshouldbeinventoriedandcreativeincentivesshouldbedevelopedtorepurposethatlandtodeliverfinanciallysustainablemixed-tenureandmixed-usedevelopmentsthatmaximizeaffordableresidentialunits.

Workforce housing inclusion: Whenlargenewfirmsestablishthemselvesinurbancentresandinjectsignificantnumbersofnewemployeesintotheregion,thereshouldbeastrategicwayofaddressingtheirassociateddemandonhousing.Thiscouldrangefromincentivesforthoseentitiestodevelopworkforcehousingaspartoftheirattractionpackagethroughtoinclusionaryrequirementstodeliverhousingunitscommensuratetoanynewofficeorindustrialdevelopments.

Focus on supply: Provincial,regionalandmunicipalgovernmentsneedtoworkwiththeircommunitiestocreateincentivesthatmaximizetheefficientuseofexistinghousingstocktoservehousingneeds.Mucheffortisplacedonthedemandforaffordablehousing,butneweffortscouldbefocusedonmanagingthesupplyside.

Harmonize affordable housing strategies:Regionalauthoritiesshouldcontinuetoworktoharmonizeaffordablehousingzoningstrategiesamongtheirmembermunicipalities.TheProvinceofBritishColumbiahaspublishedasetofguidesformunicipalgovernmentstobrokercommunityamenitycontributionsinalegallysoundwaythatfollowsgoodplanningpracticeandavoidsincreasinghousingcoststhroughtheprocess.Regionalandprovincialgovernmentsshouldcontinuetosupportmunicipalitiestoincreasetheirsophisticationinrealestateeconomicsandbrokeringinclusionaryresidentialdevelopments.

For business:

Living wage: Wagesshouldbeatanadequateleveltomeetafamilysbasicneeds.Thisratevariesbycommunitybecauseitreflectscostsassociatedwithaspecificplace.Businessesshouldknowthelivingwageoftheiremployeesandseektoraisewagesifrequiredtoallowforsustainablework.

Benefits:Flexiblebenefitscouldalsobringhouseholdincomesandexpensesintogreateralignment.Flexibleworkhourscanhelphomeownersmaximizehouseholdincomebyhelpingacoupletobothengageinfull-timeemployment.Jobsharingcanimprovehouseholdincomebyallowingasecondearnertoentertheworkforce.Transitbenefitscanhelpdecreaseexpensesbytakingacarofftheroad.

Relocating:Inthemediumterm,businessescouldmoveofficestohigherdensitybusinesscoresservicedbypublictransit.

Advocate for affordable housing:Labourisakeycostofproductioninaknowledgeeconomy.Inadequatesupplyofworkerscanincreasecostswhereasadequatesupplyofworkerscanreducecosts.Businessesshouldadvocateforaffordablehousingsolutionstoattractandretainworkersbyreducingthecostofliving.

Explore options for investing in affordable housing:Businesses,eitheraloneortogether,couldexploreoptionsforinvestinginaffordablehousingfortheirworkforce.Thiscouldgenerateaninvestmentorrevenuestreamatthesametimeasprovidingreducedcostsforworkers.

For individuals:

Evaluate renting versus buying: Millennialsshouldseriouslyconsiderthefinancialcostsandbenefitsofownership.Ifownershipdoesnotcurrentlymakefinancialsense,instituteanautomatedsavingsandinvestmentplanthatcanbuildequityoverthelongterm.

Embrace multi-family living: Residentsshouldworktogetherandembracenewformsofmulti-familylivingandowningarrangements,suchashousingco-operatives,co-housingandco-ownership.

Think smaller: Householdsshouldreducetheirfootprintbyconsideringasmallerspacewithmulti-functionaluseandfurnishings.

Live with others:Householdscouldconsiderintergenerationalcommunityliving.

10

MethodologyForthisreport,RoslynKuninandAssociatesconductedextensiveresearchofsecondaryinformationandstatisticaldataavailablefromStatisticsCanada,BCStats,labourmarketinformationwebsiteshasbeenapplied.

Thefollowingdatasourceshavebeeninvestigated:

StatisticsCanada,suchasintheLabour Force Survey, National Household Survey,andtheCensuses;

BCStats,suchasEstablishment Counts by Industry;

Occupationallabourdemandoutlookavailablefromtheprovincialgovernmentspublication;

Recentmajorstudiesofemployerneedsandeducationandtrainingrequirements(forexample,theforthcomingOccupations, Credentials, and Skills for a Prosperous BC,bytheConferenceBoardofCanada);

Otheroccupational/industryanalysisassociatedwithtechnologicaladvancementandeconomicdevelopmenttrendsinregions,countriesaroundtheworld;and

Journalandnewsarticlesonhousingaffordabilityandlabourmarketmobility.

ThefollowingisadescriptionoutliningtheprocedurestoprojectthepotentialnumberofjobopeningsinMetroVancouver,andpotentialwagegrowthassociatedwiththejobs.

DetailedemploymentbyoccupationdataavailablefromStatisticsCanadas2011NationalHouseholdSurveyforestimatesofthenumberofemployedbyoccupation(usingNationalOccupationalClassificationforStatisticsNOC-S)inMetroVancouverin2011hasbeenobtained.xv

Fromthesamesourcedataonmedian(full-time)employmentincomeassociatedwitheachoccupation(usingNOC-2011)hasbeenobtained.

Thespecificemploymentgrowthrateapplicabletoafour-digitNationalOccupationalClassification(NOC-2011)codebetween2012and2022isfromtheWorkBC Labour Market Navigator Tool,fortheMainland/SouthwestDevelopmentRegion.

ThesameWorkBC Labour Market Navigator Tool alsoprovidesrangeofregionalhourlywageratesapplicabletoafour-digitNOCcodefromtheJob Bank Wage Report.AlsoavailablefromtheToolisthepercentageofthepotentialnumberofjobopeningsduetoattritionandthoseduetoincreaseinneweconomicactivity.

Potentialnumberofnewjobopeningsforeachofthefour-digitNOCoccupationsconcernedhasbeenprojectedbyapplyingtheapplicableemploymentgrowthratetothebaseemploymentnumberin2011.

Toderivepotentialnumberofjobopeningsduetoattritionneeds(toreplacethosewhowillleavetheworkforceduetoretirementordeath)everyyearbetween2011and2022,theattritionratiostoeachfour-digitNOCoccupationconcernedhavebeenapplied.

Potentialtotaljobopeningsarethesumofopeningsduetoneweconomicactivitiesandopeningsduetotheneedtoreplacetheworkerswhowillhavelefttheworkforceduetoretirementordeath.

Aratiooffull-timewagerategrowthtoemploymentgrowthforeachofthe32two-digitNOC-SoccupationalgroupingsasperdataavailablefromStatisticsCanadasLabour Force Surveyhasbeencreated.xviTheratiosallowforacomparisonofwagegrowthandemploymentgrowthforthesameoccupationalgroupinMetroVancouversince2001.

Median(full-time)employmentincomein2014dollarvalueshasbeencalculatedbasedonactualgrowthinfulltimewageratesbyoccupationalgroup(fromthesamesourceasabove)between2010and2014.

Theratiosoffull-timewagegrowthtoemploymentgrowthbyoccupationalgrouptospecificfour-digitNOCoccupationsforwhichemploymentgrowthby2022hasbeenprojectedhavebeenappliedtoprojectacorrespondingrangeoffull-timefull-yearearningsvaluesin2022andbeyond.

11

Referencesi. WorkB.C.British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook,pg10.AccessedMay11,2015.

www.workbc.ca/WorkBC/media/WorkBC/Documents/Docs/BC-LM-Outlook-2012-2022.pdf

ii. Anumberoflabourmarketstudiesinwhichthehighcostofhousinghasbeenfoundtobeadetrimenttorecruitmentandretentioncanbefoundin:Vancouver Coast & Mountain Tourism Region (excluding Sea-to-Sky Corridor) Tourism Labour Market Study, Thompson Okanagan Tourism Labour Market Study and Vancouver Island Tourism Labour Market StudyconductedbyRoslynKunin&Associates,Inc.www.go2hr.ca/research

iii. B.C.companyciteslabourshortagesformovetoOntario.CBC News.February3,2008.

iv. NationalAssociationofRealtors.2015NAR Generational Survey,AccessedMay11,2015.www.realtor.org/news-releases/2015/03/nar-generational-survey-millennials-lead-all-buyers-most-likely-to-use-real-estate-agent

v. Yconic/Uthink.Millennial Finances & Plans for the Future,AccessedMay11,2015.we.are.yconic.com/Youth%20Insights/Infographic-Millennial-Finances-and-Plans-for-the-Future.aspx#.VVDgZ_lVhBc

vi. Nielsen.Millennials prefer cities to suburbs, subways to driveways,AccessedMay11,2015.www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2014/millennials-prefer-cities-to-suburbs-subways-to-driveways.html

PewResearch.How Millennials today compare with their grandparents 50 years ago,AccessedMay11,2015.www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/03/19/how-millennials-compare-with-their-grandparents/

vii.MattKieltyka,MetroVotes:YoungVancouveritesfleeingtomoreaffordablepastures.Metro,January14,2015.

viii. DataderivedfromStatisticsCanadasLabourForceSurvey,CANSIMtable282-0070

ix. WorkB.C.British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook.

x. Source:Landcor,Central1CreditUnion

xi. Vancity,Downsizing the Canadian Dream: Homeownership Realities for Millennials and Beyond,March2015.

xii. RichardLittlemore,Vancouvershigh-techmakeover.Globe and Mail,March26,2015.

xiii. ConferenceBoardofCanada.BuildingfromtheGroundUp:EnhancingAffordableHousinginCanada,March2010,1.

xiv. MikeBerry.Housing affordability and the economy: A review of labour market impacts and policy issues,iv.

xv. StatisticsCanada-2011NationalHouseholdSurvey.CatalogueNumber99-012-X2011061.

xvi. StatisticsCanada.Table282-0133-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS),employmentbycensusmetropolitanareabasedon2011censusboundariesandNationalOccupationalClassificationforStatistics(NOC-S),annual(persons),andStatisticsCanada.Table282-0070-Labourforcesurveyestimates(LFS),wagesofemployeesbytypeofwork,NationalOccupationalClassificationforStatistics(NOC-S),sexandagegroup,annual(currentdollarsunlessotherwisenoted).