March 2007

JOSEPH ROMMClimateprogress.org

Hell and High Water:Global Warming—

The Solution and the Politics

Our Top Climate Scientist Warns

“We are on the precipice of climate system tipping points beyond which there is no redemption.” (12/05)

“I think we have a very brief window of opportunity to deal with climate change ... no longer than a decade, at the most.” (9/06)

— James Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies

If We Delay Acting …

When will coastal property values crashbecause of impending storms and sea level rise?

When will we end the manned space programbecause we have to focus $$$ on climate?

When will we lose all soft powerbecause we are a global pariah?

When will biofuels disappear as an optionbecause drought forces a focus on land for food?

CLIMATE BOTTOM LINE

10 more years inaction ≈ Greenland goes (20 ft)20 years ≈ Serious Antarctic ice loss (80 ft)Sea level rise 6 to 12 inches per decade possiblePlus mega-droughts and super-hurricanesU.N. consensus misses most major feedbacks

If we lose the tundra, we lose a livable climateDeploying technology NOW is our only hope

PUNCHING THE CLIMATE BEASTCARBON DIOXIDE, TEMPERATURE, & SEA LEVEL

Years Ago(Slide Courtesy of Technology Review, 7/06)

June-Nov Sea Surface Temperature and Tropical Storms1880-2003, 5-year running mean

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2

4

6

8

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1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Num

ber o

f Tro

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l Sto

rms

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

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rican

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°F)

Number of Tropical Storms Sea Surface Temperature

June-Nov Sea Surface Temperature and Tropical Storms1880-2003, 5-year running mean

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1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

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79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

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Number of Tropical Storms Sea Surface Temperature

HIGH WATER

• The ice sheets seem to be shrinking 100 years ahead of schedule. —Richard Alley, 5/06

• The peak rate of deglaciation following the last Ice Age was … about one meter [39 inches] of sea-level rise every 20 years, which was maintained for several centuries. —Hansen, 04

The Greenland Ice Sheet

1) Melt area has increased 20% from 1979 to 2005.

2) Unmodeled ice loss process

3) Between 500 and 700 ppm, ice sheet disintegration likely becomes irreversible

The Greenland Ice Sheet

1) Melt area has increased 20% from 1979 to 2005.

2) Unmodeled ice loss process

3) Between 500 and 700 ppm, ice sheet disintegration likely becomes irreversible

Source: Business Week Aug. 2004

Gulf Coast (today) Courtesy Dan Schrag, Harvard

Gulf Coast with 11 feet of Sea RiseMay occur as soon as 2100,

May be unstoppable by 2025--if we don’t actCourtesy Dan Schrag, Harvard

The West is Burning Up

2000-2005 we lost a Pennsylvania of trees2006 beat 2005 record in Sept. (8.5 M-acres)Compare 1986-2003 with 70-86:

Major fires burn 37 days, versus 7.5Massive bark beetle infestationsJune-August temps in West up 1.6°F

By 2050, temps will be up 3 to 8°F!

Overpeck, 2005

THE CENTURY OF DROUGHT

“… moderate drought, currently at 25% of the Earth’s surface, rising to 50% by 2100 … and extreme drought, currently 3%, rising to 30 per cent.” — UK’s Hadley Centre for Climate

Prediction and Research (10/06)

Suggests that if we delay acting, most available land post-2050 will be needed for food, not biofuels.

This sinkhole near Fairbanks, Alaska, This sinkhole near Fairbanks, Alaska, formed due to the melting of a large formed due to the melting of a large ice pocket within permafrost that is ice pocket within permafrost that is gradually thawing as temperatures gradually thawing as temperatures warm. (Photo, U. of Alaska.)warm. (Photo, U. of Alaska.)

Drunken Forests

Anchorage Daily News

We MUST save the Tundra

The tundra has as much carbon locked in it as the atmosphere.Much of it is methane (CH4), which traps 20 times the heat of CO2.Tundra loss ~60% at 550 ppm (NCAR-2005)Stabilizing at 550 ppm (a “doubling”) may just be wishful thinking.

TIME FOR DELAY HAS RUN OUT

We’re at 380 ppm CO2, rising 2+ ppm/yrIf 500 & rising in 2050, plan on 700+ in 2100550 ppm = 3+°C warmer = plan for 80-ft sea riseGlobal emissions must peak ~2025We must cut CO2 emissions >50% by 2050.We must stop building traditional coal plantsWe must have average new car 60 mpg in 2040

Dealing with Coal and Cars

Coal strategyMinimize new coal builds with efficiencyReplace coal with renewables, CO2 capture, etc.Coal-biomass blending for gasification

Car strategyFuel efficiency for 20+ yearsThen need low-CO2 fuel that won’t undermine

efforts to deal with coalBest alt fuels minimize new infrastructure

New Coal Build by Decade

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200

400

600

800

GW

Co

al

Other Developing 43 90 128

India 16 48 79

China 150 168 226

Transition 1 11 19

OECD 12 184 218

2003-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030

221

500

670

Source: IEA, WEO 2004

>$1 trillion in misallocated capital

Unconventional Oil is Climate Disaster

Tar Sands: Use CH4 to make C-intensive fuelCoal-to-Oil: Double the CO2 emissions

Still a bad idea with carbon captureEnhanced Oil Recovery diverts captured CO2

Should NOT be valued as geologic storageShale: 1.2 GW for 100,000 barrels a day

The Hype About Hydrogen

“Total time to noticeable impact … is likely to be more than 50 years.” —Heywood, MIT, 7/05

“If I told you ‘never,’ would you be upset?”Toyota’s Bill Reinert on when H2 replaces gas, 1/05“Forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen, forget hydrogen.” — James Woolsey, 1/06After “CO2 emissions from electricity generation are virtually eliminated….” — Science, 7/03

Car of the Future: Plug in Hybrids

20-mile electric range, then reverts to hybridCould displace half of gasolineWorks best with carbon capBlend in cellulosic ethanolWhy use future clean electricity for H2?

Plug in uses electricity 3 to 4 times more efficientlyMake use of existing infrastructure/vehiclesA Boon for Utilities: Load balancing, etc.

Figure 4: What Energy Efficiency Can Really Do

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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

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Elec

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apita

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)

US Except California California

Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968

Growth = 1.5%/yr

Avoiding Climate CatastropheWEDGES: 2010 to 2060

California-style program for building efficiencySimilar program for industry efficiency plus cogenCarbon capture & storage for 800 GW coalBuild 2000 GW of wind turbines (or equivalent)Build 700 GW new nuclear plants.All cars 60 miles per gallon.All cars flex fuel plug-ins (+ 1000 GW more wind and one-twelfth of world’s cropland for biofuels).End all tropical deforestation. Double tree planting.

Global Warming Denyers and Delayers

“Global warming is real (conservatives secretly know this).” —David Brooks, 2005“Carbon dioxide—they call it pollution, we call it Life!” —Competitive Enterprise Institute, 2006“In my judgment, we need to set aside whether or not greenhouse gases have been caused by mankind or because of natural effects.”

—George W. Bush, 2006

The Technology Trap

“It's important not to get distracted by chasing short-term reductions in greenhouse emissions. The real payoff is in long-term technological breakthroughs.”“If you want to do something, [limiting emissions] is not what to do. We don't at this moment have good technology to do this, if, in fact, it's necessary to do it.”

Wither Technology?

DOE Regional offices to be shut downIndustrial efficiency to be zeroed outEfficiency: $1.18B (FY07) to $1.13B (FY11)Hydrogen fuel cells: $196M goes to $323M Energy Secretary Bodman disbands science & tech advisors

The Breakthrough Reality

What technology breakthroughs in the past three decades have transformed how we use energy today? There haven’t been any.“Typically it has taken 25 years after commercial introduction for a primary energy form to obtain a 1% share of the global market.” — Royal Dutch/Shell 2001

Private Sector R&D Investment in Health and Energy

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5,000

10,000

15,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Priv

ate-

sect

or R

&D

(200

2 $m

)

Energy

Drugs and Medicines

Kammen and Nemet, 2005

Frank Luntz Doublespeak

“The ‘international fairness’ issue is the emotional home run…. Americans will demand that all nations be part of any international global warming treaty. Nations such as China, Mexico and India would have to sign such an agreement for the majority of Americans to support it.”“We don't need an international treaty with rules and regulations that will handcuff the American economy or our ability to make our environment cleaner, safer and healthier.”

Fatal Flaws in 4th IPCC Assessment

Ignores key climate feedbacks like tundraMisses key ice sheet dynamicsToo “consensus-based”→Underestimates Impacts→Overestimates acceptable emissions

Summary: Ice Sheets (Hansen, 06)

1. Human Forcing Dwarfs Paleo Forcing

2. Sea Level Rise Starts Slowly as Interior Ice Sheet Growth Temporarily Offsets Ice Loss at the Margins

3. Equilibrium Sea Level Response for ~3C Warming (25±10 m = 80 feet) Implies Potential for a System Out of Our Control

The Gravest Security Threat to ourWay of Life for 50 Generations

We need a World War II-scale effort now or elseCoastal property values crash by 2015The U.S. becomes a global pariah by ….

It is only money!Homo sapiens sapiens?Congress: No grandfathering of new coal plantsClimateprogress.org