Heitor Coutinho

Integrated Sustainability Assessment Tools

“The Brazilian Experience with SENSOR”

II Workshop AISE

São Carlos, 13 de abril de 2010

EESC-USP

Heitor L. C. Coutinho ([email protected])

•SENSOR (EU-FP6): Sustainability Impact Assessment: Tools for environmental, social and economic effects of multifunctional land use in European Regions

Coordinator: Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Münchberg,GermanyParticipants: 33 Institutions from 15 European countriesProject duration: Dec 2004 – Nov 2008

Project demanded by the EC to support SIA of EU policies (Bioenergy; The Common Agricultural Policy reform; biodiversity policies; the forest strategy; and European transportation policy).

ObjectiveDeliver ex-ante Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT) to

support decision making on policies related to multifunctional land use in Europe

Project SENSOR Mercosur

•Baseline project: IAI-CRN II (2006-2010) “Land use change in the Rio de la Plata Basin: Linking biophysical and human factors to predict trends, assess impacts, and support viable land-use strategies for the future”

History: Oct 2005 – visit to ZALF; March 2006 – invitation to join SENSOR – proposal submitted to FP6-TTC (international cooperation to adapt the European approach to extra European conditions in Targeted Third Countries).

Sensor TTC partners: Embrapa and UFSC (Brazil); UBA (Argentina); UDELAR (Uruguay); IGNSRR and CASS (China)


•Objectives•Test and critical review of the feasibility of transferability of SIAT from Europe to extra European regions•Review on land use related policies•Test of the SIAT developed in SENSOR in TTC•Development of a comprehensive scientific data management infrastructure and an adapted indicator framework•Identification of key issues of sustainability in sensitive areas in selected regions in TTC and identification of so called “hot-spots” of environmental degradation•Stakeholder participation and institutional analysis in TTC•Identification of driving forces in TTC•End-user identification•Definition of sustainability thresholds and sustainability choice spaces in the context of the TTC countries

Driver

Pressure

State

Impact

Response

• Socio economic drivers (demographic change,

world economic growth, world oil price, etc.)

• Policy cases

• Land use change (priority 1: Policy – Land use change – Sustainability)

• Direct effect of impact issues (priority 2: Policy – Sustainability)

• Bio-geophysical conditions

• Socio-economic conditions

• Impact issues

• „impact identification“ and „impact valuation“

• Relation to landscape function;

• Up to decision maker

• Not requested from SENSOR

Land UsePolicies

Project SENSOR – Conceptual framework


•Policy Cases•Sugarcane Expansion in Mato Grosso do Sul State

Sugarcane land occupancy in Central Brazil (2007/2008)

http://www.dsr.inpe.br/mapdsr/index.jspMartorano et al., 2008

Sugarcane ethanol plants in Central Brazil


•Policy Cases•Sugarcane Expansion in Mato Grosso do Sul State

Evolution of sugarcane land occupancy in South Brazil2003-2004

2007-2008

http://www.dsr.inpe.br/mapdsr/index.jspMartorano et al., 2008


•Policy Cases•Afforestation in the South of Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay

Jobaggy et al., 2006


•Policy Cases•Afforestation in the South of Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay

Período Cultivos Pastizales Bosques y

foresta

ciones

Cuerpos de

agua

Miscelán

eas

1985/1990º ha 4934865 15132028 1503388 738457 129463

% 21.99 67.44 6.70 3.29 0.58

2000/2004º ha 5805757 13781790 1940254 867546 41574

% 25.88 61.42 8.65 3.87 0.19

∆relativo % 17.65 -8.92 29.06 17.48 -67.89

Baldi, 2006

Brazilian Policies related with sugarcane expansion

•The Brazilian Agribusiness Policy Guidelines - 2006/2011 -Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply (MAPA)

•twenty-five per cent (25%) of the mandatory amount of anhydrous ethyl alcohol added to gasoline - CIMA (Conselho Interministerial do Açúcar e do Álcool )

•The Brazilian Agroenergy Plan - 2006/2011•Sugarcane Agroecologic Zoning (ZAE CANA)

•Decadal Energy Plan (Plano Decenal de Energia – PDE) - Ministry of Mines and Energy

•Developed by the Energy Research Company (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE) - energy supply and demand forecast

•Growth Acceleration Plan (PAC)•Investment on logistics, energy and social/urbandevelopment

3.7564.387

4.8495.431

6.0786.765

7.3417.898

8.4318.970

186 346 519 702 908 1.143 1.416 1.732 2.095 2.5032.965

160 172 183 206 234 274 316 363 408 462

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Área nova projetada MS ( ha)

Área total projetada MS (mil ha)

Área projetada Brasil (mil ha)

Policy Scenario - Sugarcane expansion

Sugarcane Agroecologic Zoning (ZAE CANA)

•Based on biophysical conditionants and legal restrictions

We know how much land we need, and where it is legally and biophysically suitable to produce sugarcane. So, where will land use change take place?

•Policy response – Land Use Change Model•Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, Verburg et al., 2002, 2007)

•Simulates the spatial allocation of land use changes•Uses empirical relationships between land use classes and LUC driving forces in a dynamic modeling process

•land demand at a regional level (non-spatial component)•knowledge rules and logistic regression to estimate allocation at a local level•Land use class x driving forces variables

Estimator of land use changedistance to riverdistance to ethanol plantdistance to municipality coredistance to road

Low suitability zone;Intermediate suitability zone;High suitability zone

Land use in 2008, Mato Grosso do Sul state CLUE-S land use simulation for 2018

Ellipses denote hotspot sugarcane growth areas

1st level: World datasets

Biophysical:

• Land use

• Elevation

• Temperature

• Soils

• Ecological zones

Socio-economics:

• GDP

• Population

• Roads

Create grids for all these datasets

aggregate regions.

Brazil => micro-regions

Argentina => departamentos

Uruguay => unidades censales

Spatial Regional Reference Framework

Administrative Regions

Spatial Regional Reference Framework

Turetta et al., 2010

Sustainability Impact Indicators

Criteria:•policy relevance•analytical soundness•Measurability•availability (spatial & temporal)•simple, concise and easy to interpret•Operability

Selected Impact Issues for Mercosur

[1] IBGE – Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics.

Selected Indicators, data sources and availability

INDICATOR SOURCE COVERAGE YEAR

Consumption of pesticidesIBGE[1] – Indicators of Sustainable

Development Brazilian States 2000, 2005

Access to water supply system IBGE – Demographic Census Municipality 2000

Gini Index for the distribution of income

Atlas of Human Development - PNUD Municipality 1991, 2000

Occupied Persons IBGE - Central Company Register Municipality 1996 - 2006

GDP per capita

IBGE – Demographic CensusIBGE – Gross Domestic Product of Municipalities

IBGE – Population Estimate

Municipality 2000 - 2006

Balance of TradeMinistry of Development, Industry and

Foreign Trade, Secex Municipality 2000 - 2006

•SIAT (Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool)•a meta-modelling system•Requirements of the tool:

•Set of policy options•Quick SIA response•Transparency of indicator processing methods•Effectiveness of indicator results

SIAT Sugarcane MS

•Lessons learned•Limitations of approach

•Lack of a reliable SI indicator set (time-series) •Weakness of available modelling frameworks (too specific)• Need to develop and apply effective SIA participatory approaches

FoPIA - Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (Morris et al., 2008)•A stand alone, participation-based framework of sequenced methods for involving national, regional and local stakeholders in assessments of land use policy impacts•Participatory SIA can plug some of the gaps caused by limited data availability / modelling capacity

FoPIA - Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment

Morris & Tassone, 2008

•Future developments •Apply FoPIA•Apply the Sensor approach to a larger spatial scale•Develop knowledge rules for SI indicators•Develop a broader set of SI indicators•Apply the LUF approach

Thank You!

([email protected])

Heitor Coutinho

Technology

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