Leadership 0510

Leadership in Uncertain Times

Peter Dickens, MTSDirector: Tyndale Centre for Leadershippdickens@tyndale.ca

Heifetz on LeadershipClarity of the Problem

UnclearClear

Clarity of the

Solution

Unclear and Unavailable

Clear and Available

Type I

Technical Work

Management and Leadership

Leaders……• Set direction• Align people with the

vision• Motivate and and

inspire

Managers……• Plan and budget• Organize and staff• Provide controls and

solve problems

Kotter, J. (2001) What Leaders Really Do. HBR On Point

Heifetz on LeadershipClarity of the Problem

UnclearClear

Clarity of the

Solution

Unclear and Unavailable

Clear and Available

Type I

Technical Work

Type II

Technical/ Adaptive

Work

Type III

Highly Adaptive

Work

Type IV

Wishful Thinking Dogma

Reflections on certaintyMany of us develop partial understandings that we see as complete. The more certain we feel of them, the more they limit our freedom to think. We may have spent years building up these certainties, and beneath the fear of letting go of them is the fear of having nothing underneath.

Peter Senge et al. The Dance of Change

Residual Uncertainty• If you want to develop better strategic choices

under conditions of uncertainty, you have to understand the uncertainty you face

• Certainty is not binary• Residual uncertainty: What’s left after the best

possible analysis to separate the known from the unknowable

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

Levels 1 Uncertainty

• Relatively clear view of the future

• One or two obvious options

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

Leadership Strategies

1. Traditional• SWOT• Benchmarking• Competency-based

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

Summary of “Industrial” Leadership

• Framed by level 1 uncertainty• These industrial age leadership theories have been:• management-oriented• Focused on the leader• goal-achievement-dominated• male-oriented• utilitarian and materialistic in ethical perspective• Rationalistic

– Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century

Level 2 Uncertainty1. Relatively clear view of

the future2. Alternate futures

• Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive

• One will occur

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

Level 2 Leadership Strategies

1. Traditional2. Qualitative decision

analysis

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

Leadership as Process

Leadership is process whereby an individual influences a group of individuals to achieve a common goal. Peter Northouse. Leadership

Level 3 Uncertainty1. Relatively clear view of

the future2. Alternate futures3. Range of futures

– Not mutually exclusive

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

Level 3 Leadership Strategies

1. Traditional2. Qualitative decision

analysis3. Decision tree/cost-

benefit analysis

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

Level 3 Strategy

• Diversification• Insurance• A decision on where

you will place your bets

Level 4 Uncertainty

1. Relatively clear view of the future

2. Alternate futures3. Range of futures4. True ambiguity

– The future is unknown and unknowable

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

Peter Vaill: Permanent White Water

– Conditions are full of surprises

– Complex systems tend to produce novel problems

– Conditions feature events that are “messy” and

– Events are often very costly

Emerging Norms re: Uncertainty

• Constant change• Collaborative focus• Possibility –

orientation• Complex systems• Self-organizing

agents

Self-organizing Systems

• Innumerable variables determine outcomes• Small changes can change everything• The whole emerges out from the parts• Direction is determined by emergence and the

participation of many people• Individual or systems behavior is unknowable,

unpredictable, and uncontrollable

Leadership Strategies

1. Traditional2. Qualitative decision

analysis3. Decision tree/cost

benefit analysis4. Work backwards

Hugh Courtney. 20/20 Foresite

Working Backwards?

• Start with a strategy• Is it aligned with our mission and values?• What do we have to believe about the

future to support a defined strategy?• Do we believe that is likely?• Are we willing to bet on it?

Emerging Leadership Theory

Leadership is not a position. To my knowledge, a promotion never made anyone a leader. Leadership is a fiduciary calling. Max DePree. Leadership is an Art.

Focus on Intent

Leadership is an influence relationship among leaders and followers who intend real changes that reflect their mutual purposes.Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century

Transformative Leadership

Transformative leadership occurs when one or more people engage with others in such a way that leaders and followers raise one another to higher levels of motivations and morality.

Burns. Transformative Leadership

Leadership as Service

Leadership begins with the natural feeling that one wants to serve, to serve first .... The best test is: Do those served grow as persons; do they, while being served, become healthier, wiser, freer, more autonomous, or more likely to become servants themselves?

Bob Greenleaf. Servant Leadership.

Leadership and Action

Leadership means initiating action towards shared values and purpose.

Dick Couto

Leadership in Self-Organizing Systems

• Define the boundaries• Invite diversity• Create transforming

exchanges• Serve the system

Reflection

• What does this mean for your area of ministry?

• What would you have to embrace?

• What would you have to let go of?