Heartland_Energy_Presentation

IS Wind EnergyBased on

Real Science?John Droz, jr.

Physicist & Environmental AdvocateHeartland: 7th ICCC

5/22/12 (rev 5/19/12)© john droz, jr.

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Our Energy Policies — from Lobbyists or Science

This is a presentation given at the Heartland Conference, May 22, 2012.

This is an abbreviated (20 minute) discussion about various key aspects of the US electricity grid, and the electrical power source choices we have. This is a complicated matter, so I have tried to strike a balance between being too technical and too simplified. The FULL version of this part is EnergyPresentation.Info.

The underlying message is that our energy decisions should be made on the basis of sound SCIENCE — not on what lobbyists say.

Hopefully you have already been to my website: “WindPowerFacts.Info” which has other useful supporting information.

My expectation is that after legislators get more informed — and do some Critical Thinking — that they will be in a much better position to execute informed cost-beneficial energy and environmental policies.

In my live presentation there is commentary that accompanies each slide, and this is not included here. Since I don’t have the space to include all of those, I identified the slides where the remarks were most important, and added them after those slides. [These “elaborated on” slides are identified with an asterisk in the upper right hand corner. On a few other slides I added short comments between the {...} brackets directly on the slides.]

Feel free to use this material to make a presentation to your own representatives. In any case after you go through this, I will be glad to personally respond to any emails you send me: “[email protected]”.

References and credits are on the two slides just before the end. Please see my brief “resume,” the copyright notice, disclaimer, contact information: all at the end of EnergyPresentation.Info. [Note that I will indicate updates on the material by a revision letter on the first slide.] If you like what you see, please pass it on to other open-minded people, plus your federal, state and local representatives.

— ENJOY!

john droz, jr.

© john droz, jr.

There are two things that are more difficult than making a public speech: climbing a wall which is leaning toward you, andkissing a girl who is leaning away from you.

— Winston Churchill

© john droz, jr.

A Lot More About WhatYou’ll See Today,

is Online at:EnergyPresentation.Info

© john droz, jr.

An Historical Perspective...

The basicobjective

of any con.

© john droz, jr.

How were snake oil salesmenable to take advantage of good people?

1 - By telling them what they wanted to hear, and 2 - by counting on the fact that few people take the time to properly check things out!

© john droz, jr.

We look back and sayhow could these people be so gullible?

But is it any different today?

© john droz, jr.

Yes —It’s Worse!

© john droz, jr.

There isno penalty for making unscientific

claims.

© john droz, jr.

We’ve come full circle.

The solution to almost any con is simple:

1 - don’t believe everything you hear from sales people, and

2 - thoroughly check things out!

© john droz, jr.

In short, my position is that — 1) we do have environmental and energy issues, and

2) these matters should be solved scientifically.

© john droz, jr.

It’s Lobbyists vs Science

—and Science is Losing

What Is

CriticalThinking?

A thorough, open-minded, logical effortto examine a claim,

in the light of all applicable evidence.

One of the key ingredients of true science — and critical thinking — is

SKEPTICISM© john droz, jr.

Some Relevant Carl Sagan Quotes To Ponder —

1 - We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology.

2 - We have arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for awhile, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.

3 - I am often amazed at how much more capability and enthusiasm for science there is among elementary school youngsters than among college students.

4 - Skeptical scrutiny is the means by which deep thoughts can be separated from deep nonsense.

My Three Hats Here:

#1 - Physicist

#2 - Economist

#3 - Environmentalist

© john droz, jr.

Twelve Turbines in a Rural Community

© john droz, jr.

By this I mean that:

1) wind energy is not a technically sound solution to provide us power, or to meaningfully reduce global warming, and

Wind Power Fails to Deliver the Goods

2) wind energy is not an economically viable source of energy on its own, and

3) wind energy is not environmentally responsible.

© john droz, jr.

The Soundbite:Wind Energy = High Cost, Low Benefits

© john droz, jr.

Science is a PROCESS that Works Like This:

When a new idea is proposed as a potential solution to a problem,it is up to the advocates to PROVE its efficacy (not the other way around).

© john droz, jr.

In the case of Wind Energy,this has never been done!

The Process of doing a Scientific assessment —

involves a: 1) comprehensive, 2) objective, 3) transparent, and 4) empirical based analysis.

© john droz, jr.

Sound Scientific Solutionsis the Umbrella position that covers

ALL important concerns:

TECHNICAL(e.g. reliability,dispatchability,transmission,

other Gridlimitations)

ECONOMIC(e.g. taxpayer cost,

ratepayer costs,agricultural impact,

property values, net jobs, etc.)

ENVIRONMENTAL(e.g. CO2 savings,

noise, flicker,birds & bats,

other health effects,raw material extraction

and processing, etc.)

© john droz, jr.

How Does Wind Energy Farein these Three Key Areas?

∫

A TeensieTechnical

Tidbit

Sound Scientific Solutions

Part 1:

There is NO SUCH THINGas wind energy by itself!

© john droz, jr.

Wind Energy MUST HAVEa fast-responding, augmenting

source of power available 24/7/365.

NO other conventional source of electricity has this requirement!

© john droz, jr.

For a variety oftechnical and economic reasons,this fast-responding, augmenting

source of power is usually gas.

© john droz, jr.

“Integrating the variable capacity of wind energy

undermines the time-tested, science driven

technology plan required of all utilities.

And that just isn’t right.”

Read what a Utility Company says:

© john droz, jr.

“Families would have to get used to only using power

when it was available, rather than constantly.”

When National Grid’s CEO was challenged about integrating wind energy, he said:

An even moredisturbing assessment

from autility executive...

© john droz, jr.

So, ALL statements about the consequences of this wind project

(calculations of cost,impact on air quality, etc.)

MUST address theWIND + GAS Package.

© john droz, jr.

The wind industry’s omissionof these (and other) technical realitiesis a misrepresentation of the situation.

EyingEnvironmental

Effects


Part 2:

Some citizens say that they supportwind projects because they are “Green.”

© john droz, jr.

Is Wind Energy Really Green?

Let’s take a quick look atjust one part of a turbine...

© john droz, jr.

Many WindTurbines use2000± Poundsof Rare Earth

Elementsper rated MW.

So what?

© john droz, jr.

The processing ofRare Earth Elements

involves dozens of steps,of caustic chemical baths,

or blast furnace separations.

Each of these resultsin a waste stream

of severely pollutedair, water, and residue.

© john droz, jr.

Read for Yourself...

© john droz, jr.

The processing of theRare Earth Elements,

for just one 300 MW wind project...

1) destroys 60,000± square meters of vegetation,

2) generates 18,000,000± cubic meters of highly toxic air pollution,

3) pollutes 86,000,000± gallons of wastewater (making it poisonous),

4) produces 1,800,000,000± pounds of contaminated tailing sands, &

5) results in 300,000± pounds of radioactive waste.

© john droz, jr.

Yes, that’s right:processing the REEs

used by just one 300 MW wind project’s turbines

result in 300,000± pounds of radioactive waste!

© john droz, jr.

Remember, the REE environmental impactis just ONE component

of these turbines.

There are otheradverse environmental consequences as well.

© john droz, jr.

LIKE THIS

© john droz, jr.

So, is Wind Energy Really Green?

An objective look says NO!

© john droz, jr.

After carefully looking intojust this ONE turbine component,

reconsider the following marketing claims:

1 - Is Wind Energy really “renewable”?

2 - Is Wind Energy really “sustainable”?

3 - Does Wind Energy really give us energy “independence”?

The inescapable answer is NO!© john droz, jr.

“Industrial wind projects don’t work. They produce a trickle of electricity at a vast cost to the consumer. They desecrate the

landscape and make people’s lives a misery. And they don’t even cut carbon emissions. They are literally a waste of space…”

As time goes on, more environmentalists are speaking out —

Struan Stevenson: Chairman of the European Parliament’sClimate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainable Development Intergroup (11/11/11)

© john droz, jr.

EnergyEconomicsExplained


Part 3:

What Wind Energy Is Really All About © john droz, jr.

E-V-E-R-Y-T-H-I-N-Gabout the economics here

is problematic!

Does wind energy provide economical electricity ?NO, not compared to conventional sources.

Look at the real economics from three perspectives — a) Total Costs = higher than conventional sources. b) Ratepayer Costs = higher than conventional sources. c) Taxpayer Subsidies = higher than all conventional sources, combined!

© john droz, jr.

Financial Comparison “a”

Total Costs(Capital + Operation

+ Fuel + Transmission)

Power Sources Total Costs

Nuclear Geothermal Gas w CCS Coal w CSS Onshore Wind Offshore Wind

Capital Operation Fuel Transmission

EIA — Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources, 2016

{Wind costs here do NOT take into accountany costs: for backup generation,

OR for extra transmission lines needed,OR for other ancillary requirements,

OR for decommissioning.}

© john droz, jr.

Financial Comparison “b”

Utility Ratepayer Costs

More real world evidencefrom NC utility experts,about the real cost of

wind energy:onshore = 2-3 times moreoffshore = 4-5 times more

© john droz, jr.

Germany

Spain

US

Canada

Denmark

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Bad Renewables %¢/KWH (2007 Data)

What’s the Correlation withHigher Wind Energy Usage

and Residential Electricity Rates?

© john droz, jr.

Now that you know that, is this an honest claim?

© john droz, jr.

Financial Comparison “c”

Taxpayer Costs

$1,189 M $2,234 M $654 M $215 M$4,981 M

Coal Nuclear Nat Gas Hydro Wind

Annual Federal TAXPAYER Subsidies of Electrical Energy Sources: Totals

2010 US Energy Information Administration Subsidy Report: July 2011[Direct + Tax + R&D +Electricity Support]

$4,981 M

Note that the total 2010 subsidies for wind energy

exceed the totals for all the other conventional sources

COMBINED!

© john droz, jr.

Now that you know that, is this an honest claim?

© john droz, jr.

But what about regional economics?

Remember What Your Dad Said:

There’s No Free Lunch!

To begin with,

all “enticements” are with your own money!

© john droz, jr.

To ACCURATELY know regional economics,we need to get valid answers to four questions:

1) Exactly how much of the jobs and economic claims are guaranteed?

2) Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits will go to local citizens?

3) What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to the region?

4) Are there other resulting benefits or liabilities from such a project?

© john droz, jr.

Question #1: Exactly how much of the developer’s job and economic claims are guaranteed?

Answer: None.

Answer: We have no idea. Most initial jobs will be to imported specialists.

Question #2: Specifically how much of the guaranteed jobs and economic benefits will go to local citizens?

Question #3: What are the NET jobs and economic benefits to the region?

Answer: There will be NET job and economic losses. See next slides!

One likely consequence is that a few of the farmers who have leases, will scale back their operation, or

stop farming entirely. Here is one of many examples where this is exactly what happened.

© john droz, jr.

Typical Wind Development Impact:

Net Annual Job Loss

Net Annual Economic Loss

Question #4: Are there other benefits or liabilitiesresulting from such a project?

Answer: Yes, there are other substantial liabilities. For example, the many millions of dollars being given to this developer (e.g. through tax credits): a) increase our country’s indebtedness, and b) is money borrowed from China.

Are either of these in our interest to support?

© john droz, jr.

The United States can be a National Leader in:

1) Eighteenth century ideas like horse transportation and wind energy(buggy whip manufacturing, blacksmith and windmill jobs)

OR

2) State-of-the art, Scientifically Sound energy solutions (like geothermal energy or Small Modular Reactors)

© john droz, jr.

The Wind Project Developer has ONE Objective:to squeeze the County & the Leaseholdersfor EVERYTHING they can get out of them.

We can chosethe path thru the

dark green forest.

After all,the marketeers

assured usthat it would be

an easy shortcutto get some

“found money.”

© john droz, jr.

The salesmen promised us that

the trip will be pleasant and successful.

Any animalsalong the way

will be our friend!

© john droz, jr.

Philip Epp painting - Wild Horses (www.philepp.com/Paintings/paintings.html)Slide 6: Winsten Churchill quote (www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/w/winston_churchill.html)Slide 15: Pinnochio (savevestas.wordpress.com/2009/10/25/new-vestas-campaign-postcard-take-and-distribute/ed_miliband-sw-1-2/)Slide 20: Critical Thinking - several sources, e.g. (www.criticalthinking.org/about/mission.cfm)Slide 21: Carl Sagan quotes (www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/c/carl_sagan.html)Slide 26: Scientific Methodology - several sources, e.g. (teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy_labs/appendixe/appendixe.html)Slide 41: Rare Earth elements in a Turbine (www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?oid=83419&sn=Detail)Slide 42: China Environmental Issues with REEs (tinyurl.com/4u2xjst)Slide 44: Impacts of REEs - several sources, e.g. (fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/rareearth.pdf)Slide 44: Impacts of REEs - several sources, e.g. (www.vetiver.org/ICV4pdfs/BA09.pdf)Slide 44: Impacts of REEs - several sources, e.g. (www.sdcleanwateralliance.org/RareEarthElements.html)Slide 46: Wind Turbine Fire (epaw.org/multimedia.php?lang=en&article=a7)Slide 47: Wind Turbine with Birds (sfist.com/2010/12/07/altamont_pass_to_get_less-deadly_wi.php)Slide 50: Struan speech (www.struanstevenson.com/media/speech/national_follies/)Slide 58: Power Sources Total Cost (www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.html)Slide 62: IEA 2007 World Energy Statistics (tinyurl.com/bwx9pl) + data sent from IEASlide 65: Federal Subsidies - EIA 2010 Report (www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/)Slide 65: State Wind Energy Subsidies, etc. (www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1837)Slide 69: “He Has Your Wallet” (www.floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/he-has-your-wallet.jpg)Slides 74 & 75: Scottish Tourism Study (scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/03/07113554/0)Slide 77: Turbine Effects on Local Meteorology (www.atmos.illinois.edu/~sbroy/publ/jweia2011.pdf)Slides 78 & 79: Agricultural Effects of Turbine Bat Deaths (www.fort.usgs.gov/Products/Publications/23069a/23069a.pdf)Slides 80, 81 & 82: Assessment 1 of NJ Offshore Wind project (www.state.nj.us/rpa/docs/FACWReport%20v14%20(PUBLIC%20VERSION).pdf)Slides 83: Assessment 2 of NJ Offshore Wind project (www.njspotlight.com/assets/12/0228/1839)Slide 86: Statue of Liberty w Sickle (nocureforthat.wordpress.com/2010/06/02/hedges-this-country-needs-a-few-good-communists/)Slide 92: Little Red Riding Hood drawing (osw.deviantart.com/art/Little-Red-Riding-Hood-81798342)Slide 93 & 94: Little Red Riding Hood photos (www.shlominissim.com/inner_gallery.asp?id=271#UploadedFiles/Galleries/5_271_main.jpg)

Other unattributed observations are the result of private research.

Some References (for main data, quotes, etc.) —

© john droz, jr.

http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/OFR/2006/OFR06_11/index.html

http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/OFR/2006/OFR06_11/index.html

http://www.criticalthinking.org/about/mission.cfm

http://www.criticalthinking.org/about/mission.cfm

http://tinyurl.com/bwx9pl

http://tinyurl.com/bwx9pl

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1837




John Droz, jr. is a physicist and has been an environmental activist for over 25 years. He has been a leading individual on four NY statewide issues (electrical energy, water extraction, water quality, and property taxes) and is currently working on NC issues (like electrical energy and sea level rise).

He received undergraduate degrees in physics and mathematics from Boston College, and a graduate degree in physics from Syracuse University. He has been a participating member of several environmental organizations (like the Adirondack Council, Adirondack Wild, Protect, and Sierra Club). [The science oriented views expressed in this presentation may not necessarily reflect the political agenda of these organizations.] Due to his love of nature, he has a Summer lakefront cottage in the Adirondacks (NY).

These areas of interest and expertise (science & environmentalism) have merged with his focus on energy matters, especially wind energy. John’s basic position is that we should be taking aggressive measures to solve our energy and pollution issues, but should not be wasting time and money on illusionary solutions — which are primarily promoted by those with vested financial interests in them.

This slide presentation is copyrighted and is for personal use only. Any reproduction, quoting, referencing, or other use of this material is prohibited without the author’s express written consent. Such consent will usually be granted for the purpose of putting on an educational community presentation.

All information is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. If errors are noted, please email John the scientific evidence of same and a correction will be made.

For questions, comments or permission to use any material in this presentation, please email John at:[email protected]

© john droz, jr.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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