StatiSense

AN OVERVIEW OF 2016

HEALTH SECTOR

BUDGET PERFORMANCE

NO. BUDGET COMPONENTS AMOUNT PERCENTAGE

1 Debt Services 1,475,320,000,000 24.34%

2 Statutory Transfer 351,370,000,000 5.80%

3 Recurrent Expenditures 2,646,389,236,196 43.66%

4 Capital Expenditures 1,587,598,122,031 26.20%

TOTAL BUDGET 6,060,677,358,227

2 0 1 6 A P P R O P R I A T E D B U D G E T

NO. ITEM PROJECTION ACTUAL

1 Average Oil Production (mbpd) 2.2 1.93

2 Average Oil Price Benchmark ($) 38 42.9

3 Non-Oil Revenue BaselineCustoms Collections, Company Income Tax,

Value Added Tax, FGN Independent Revenue

4 Exchange Rate ($) 197 305

5 Inflation (%) 9.81 18.39

We Spend more Dollar than we EARN

2 0 1 6 B U D G E T A S S U M P T I O N S

August 2016

2016 BUDGET ASSUMPTIONS: OIL PRODUCTION

2,241,6922,181,416

2,082,9242,149,252

2,041,405

1,954,875 1,985,317

1,688,3801,768,844

1,654,366

1,502,083

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16

Projected: Average Oil Production (mbpd) = 2.2

Actual: Average Oil Production (mbpd) = 1.93

Oil Production (mbpd)

Source: NNPC

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

4-Jan-16 4-Feb-16 4-Mar-16 4-Apr-16 4-May-16 4-Jun-16 4-Jul-16 4-Aug-16 4-Sep-16 4-Oct-16 4-Nov-16 4-Dec-16

Projected: Average Oil Price Benchmark ($) = 38

Actual: Average Oil Price Benchmark ($) = 42.9

2016 BUDGET ASSUMPTIONS: OIL PRICE

Oil Price Benchmark ($)

Source: http://www.investing.com

B U D G E T S H O R T F A L L S

NO. ITEM PROJECTION ACTUAL

1 Average Oil Production (mbpd) 2.2 1.93

2 Average Oil Price Benchmark ($) 38 42.9

3 Non-Oil Revenue BaselineCustoms Collections, Company Income Tax, Value Added

Tax, FGN Independent Revenue

4 Exchange Rate ($) 197 305

5 Inflation (%) 9.81 18.39

Projected

Actual

Oil (mbpd) Oil Price ($)

2.2

1.93

38

42.9

$83.6m

$82.8m

Without considering other unmet projections, clearly there is

shortfall in Nigeria’s financial projection, which automatically leads to the variableness in funding the 2016 Budget!

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

1,587,598,122,031

RELEASED

635,770,642,465

RELEASEDHEALTH (CAPITAL)

28,650,342,987

RELEASED

18,472,539,524

% RELEASED

40%

%

64%

October 21, 2016

COMPONENT TOTAL %

Recurrent Expenditures 221,412,548,087 89%

Capital Expenditures 28,650,342,987 11%

Total Budget 250,062,891,075

HEALTH BUDGET

4%of National

Budget

2 0 1 6 C A P I T A L B U D G E T R E L E A S E S

Source: Budget Office

HEALTH

AGENCY BUDGETED RELEASED %

National Primary Health Care Development 15,694,635,719 12,673,590,715 80.75%

Federal Medical Centre, Nasarawa State 131,452,712 105,458,068 80.23%

Federal Ministry of Health - Hqtrs 5,214,252,356 2,506,093,423 48.06%

Other Agencies 80,957,470 33,908,482 41.88

What aboutBUDGET IMPLEMENTATION?

2 0 1 6 C A P I T A L B U D G E T R E L E A S E S

YEARNATIONAL(Trillion)

HEALTH(Billion)

CAPITAL(Billion)

IMPLEMENTED(Billion)

IMPLEMENTED %

2015 4,493.36 259.75 22.68 16.45 72.52%

2014 4,695.19 264.46 49.52 20.47 41.34%

2013 4,987.22 282.50 60.05 34.78 57.93%

2012 4,749.10 282.77 60.92 45.00 73.87%

2011 4,484.74 257.87 38.79 32.17 82.93%

PAST BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORTS

Average of 65.72% Implementation over the last 5 years

Source: Budget Office

NATIONAL BUDGET HEALTH BUDGET CAPITAL BUDGET IMPLEMENTED

4,493,363,957,158 259,751,742,847 22,676,000,000 16,445,053,729

5.78% 8.73% 72.52%

8%N259.75bn

N16.45bn

N6.23bn

Health Budget

Health Capital Budget

Implemented Budget

Unimplemented

N22.68bn

5.78%

8.73%

72.52%

27.45%

National Budget

2015 BUDGET IMPLEMENTATION REPORTS

Budget

Enactment

Budget

Implementation

Budget

Monitoring

& Auditing

Executive & Legislature Executive & Legislature Executive & Legislature

2014Audit

Report

Drugs were haphazardly arranged in the store, instead of arranging them according to each programme.

Most of the drugs like malaria; Narcotics, Mosquito nets, etc. were left in the store undistributed even though they were almost at their expiring dates.

“The Permanent Secretary failed to respond to my audit observations sent to him”

– Auditor-General of the Federation

M I N I S T RY O F H E A LT H AU D I T R E P O RT S

2Quarterly Budget Releases and project by project Implementation Reports;

3Adopt conservative assumptions in drafting the MTEF & FSP document;

4 Access and use the Health Ministry Audit Reports for oversight functions.

1Improved budgetary allocation to Health, especially to Capital Expenditures;

I N C O N C L U S I O N …

Analyst: Wale Micaiah

e: walegate@yahoo.com

m: 08078001800

w: www.statisense.com

Freely share, freely use and

freely acknowledge the

source – © Wale Micaiah