Health and Safety Executive - UK Data Service...UK Data Service; 2016-11-25; Labour Force and Annual...
Transcript of Health and Safety Executive - UK Data Service...UK Data Service; 2016-11-25; Labour Force and Annual...
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Health and Safety Executive
© Crown Copyright, HSE 2016 HSL: HSE’s Health and Safety Laboratory
Spatial and temporal modelling of Great Britain’s workforce25th November 2016
Oliver Gunawan and Kirsty Forder
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• HSE is the governmental body for regulation of health and safety in the workplace
AND• Regulation of workplace
activities that may affect the health and safety of the general public.
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HSL: HSE’s Health and Safety Laboratory © Crown Copyright, HSE 2016 © Crown Copyright, HSE 2016
Data Analytics
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HSL: HSE’s Health and Safety Laboratory © Crown Copyright, HSE 2016 © Crown Copyright, HSE 2016
The National Population Database
• HSE undertakes major hazard modelling and societal risk work as part of COMAH (Control of Major Accident Hazards) and LUP duties
• Societal risk is a measure of likelihood of harm to a group of people, its estimation requires a knowledge of the density and distribution of populationDevelopment of the National Population Database
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NPD example
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NPD Workplace layer
• Based on Inter‐Departmental Business Register (IDBR) from ONS
• Population and industrial category information
• Mapped to postcode
BUT• Commercial sensitivity
• Assumes employees work 24/7
• Assumes all employees work in a single location
@Crown copyright and database rights (2016) Ordnance Survey 100021025
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HSL: HSE’s Health and Safety Laboratory © Crown Copyright, HSE 2016 © Crown Copyright, HSE 2016
Labour Force Survey (LFS)
• During LFS Q2, work pattern questions are asked.
Normal period of work includes:Day, Evening, NightResponder usually works Saturday, Sunday
Industry sector in main jobSIC2007 letter A‐U
Where do you work?Governmental Office Region 2 and 3 combined (10 regions)
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Labour Force Survey
• Employment proportions were calculated for each region, industry category and working time.
Category Industry types
Primary • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing• Mining and Quarrying
• Electricity, Gas…• Water, sewage, waste
Secondary • Manufacturing • Construction
Services
• Wholesale and retail trade• Transportation• Accommodation and food• Information and communication• Finance and insurance
• Real Estate• Professional, scientific, tech.• Admin and support• Arts and entertainment• Other services
Public Services
• Public admin• Education
• Human health and social work
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Working patterns by industry
0.0
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days evenings nights weekends
Prop
ortio
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PrimarySecondaryServicesPublic Services
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Geographies for population modelling
• To preserve data sensitivity, population data has been attached to boundaries.
• 2011 census Workplace Zones were selected for use.
• Workplace Zones are a new output geography that align with other census geographies.
MSOAOAWZ
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Creating the NPD workplace layer
1. Use LFS to create workplace multipliersBy time of day/week, industry group & region
2. Join LFS multipliers to IDBR pointsBy industry group & region
5. Disclosure controlAs agreed with ONS.By workplace zone & industry
6. Aggregate populations to workplace zoneBy location:point-in-polygon
3. Calculate workforce populationsUsing IDBR total population and LFS multipliers
4. Assign workplace zone codes toIDBR pointsBy location: point-in-polygon
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NPD layer overview
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Temporal populations
Day
Eve
Night
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Applications – Impact assessment
Natural hazard impact assessment: a 1953 type flooding event
•Impacted populations calculated
•Multi‐Coloured Manual used to estimate economic cost of damage based on flood depth
•Commuting costs and loss of employment calculated
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Applications – Economic assessment
• Economic impact assessment of industrial accidents
•Gross Value Added used to estimate economic impact due to closure and rebuild
• Input‐output tables used to estimate indirect costs due to business closure.
@Crown copyright and database rights (2016) Ordnance Survey 100021025
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Summary
• The LFS Q2 data has improved NPD workforce population modelling.
• The latest NPD workforce layer now has populations projected for different times of the day and week.
• Future work will look at:– Adjusting populations based on shift work.– Delocalised employees.
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Questions and contacts
http://www.hsl.gov.uk/what‐we‐do/better‐decisions/geoanalytics/national‐population‐database