iihs.org

Headwinds on the Road to Zero and the Promise of New Technology

Advancing Safety through DataNovember 2, 2017

Detroit, Michigan

Adrian Lund, Ph.D.

President, IIHS and HLDI

Established October 2016450 members

Motor vehicle

crash deaths have

declined significantly

in the U.S. during

the past 50+ years.

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20160

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Motor vehiclecrash deaths

Crash deaths perbillion vehicle miles traveled

201637,461 deaths

11.8 per billion

U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths

per billion vehicle miles traveled

1950-2016

Automakers can take pride in that much of the improved safety in recent years is due to vehicle designs

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Calendar year

Actual rates

Expected rates

Vehicle and non-vehicle factors and highway safetyPassenger vehicle driver deaths per million vehicles, actual vs. expected for 1985 fleet

New technology for the vehicle promises to avoid crashes altogether

Real world reductions in relevant police-reported crashesPercent change in relevant crash type for various vehicle technologies

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

forward collisionwarning

low-speed autobrake fcw with autobrake lane departurewarning

side-view assist(blind spot)

all severities injury

20 automakers have committedto make AEB a standard feature

by September 2022

99+% of U.S. market

Kia plans fully driverless cars by 2030-The Detroit News, January 4, 2016

Two auto suppliers join for self-driving cars by 2019-USA Today, August 23, 2016

BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye team up to bring

fully autonomous driving to streets by 2021-Reuters, July 1, 2016

Ford targets fully autonomous vehicle for ride sharing in 2021;

invests in new tech companies, doubles Silicon Valley team-Ford media center, August 16, 2016

Lyft predicts mostly self-driving cars by 2021-New York Post, September 19, 2016

The promise and the reality of advanced safety technology

Driver acceptance and safe useof automated systems

Percent of vehicle owners who reported driving with forward collision warning turned on

0

20

40

60

80

100

Toyota Volvo Dodge and Jeep

unknown

never

sometimes

always

On-off status of front crash prevention systemsBy manufacturer

percent with

system on

number

observed

Cadillac 92 206

Chevrolet 87 142

Honda 98 239

Lexus 50 8

Mazda 95 20

Volvo 94 52

total 93 667

Percent of vehicle owners who reported driving with lane-maintenance systems turned on

0

20

40

60

80

100

Volvolane departure warning

Infinitilane departure warning

Infinitilane departure prevention

Toyotalane departure prevention

unknown

never

sometimes

always

On-off status of lane-maintenance systemsBy manufacturer

percent with

system on

number

observed

Cadillac 57 207

Chevrolet 50 147

Ford/Lincoln 21 115

Honda 36 239

Lexus/Toyota 68 147

Mazda 77 26

Volvo 75 105

total 51 986

Active lane keeping ranked least in trustAverage rating and 95% confidence interval by system

side-view assist

(Honda, Audi, Infiniti)

lane departure warning

forward collision warning

active lane keeping

(Honda, Audi)

adaptive cruise control

strongly

disagree

disagree neutral agree strongly

agree

Technologies had different problem areasPercentage of drivers by complaint type

0

20

40

60

80

adaptive cruisecontrol

active lane keeping lane departurewarning

forward collisionwarning

side view assist

“You have to get in a wrestling match for control of

the wheel on curves.”

Participant 121SA

“I did not feel well notified by the system of when it

was on and had been working, but no longer could

identify the lines.”

Participant 329SV

“On highways this worked well, but … the constant

pressure in one direction was fatiguing.”

Participant 301SV

functionality and performance user interface circumstance none

Level 2 automated driving experience - issues

Lost lane linesOn-road testing of Tesla “Autopilot” 7.1 (hardware version 1)

Stopped lead vehicleOn-road testing – 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class

A potential role for Advancing Safety through Data

The importance of dataHeidi King, NHTSA Deputy Administrator, Automotive News, October 23, 2017

"To fulfill the promise of automated driving systems, we must give our full

consideration to safety in the testing and development of these vehicles."

"That means rigor, being transparent, learning from one another and broadening

public understanding, not only of these vehicles potential benefits, but how safety

is being addressed in their development and testing."

The Advancing Safety through Data consortium role

Develop a common database that can be searched by VIN for specific automated features

– Crash avoidance features

– Automated driving features

By level of automation

By operational domain

A standardized database across different automakers at time of manufacture would

– Facilitate answers to public questions about the safety of these features on the road

– Make it easier to share lessons learned across automakers

– Be free of privacy concerns as the vehicle has not yet been sold

Make database available to third parties through

– The ASD consortium

– NHTSA

– IIHS/HLDI

Vehicle identification number is critical for evaluating the safety of driving automation technology

Safety benefits of vehicle features can be assessed when tied to crash and

exposure data

VIN standard requires certain information to be encoded

– Driver assistance technology and automated driving systems are not included

Manufacturers can supply information linking VIN to vehicle features

Vehicle registration, police crash reports, and insurance claim data can be

connected using VIN

VIN shown to be key for evaluating the effects of driver assistance systems

on police-reported crashes and insurance claims

NHTSA should create a

public VIN-indexed

database listing vehicles

equipped with automated

driving systems

And EDR information for after the crashAdvancing Safety through Data

Already looking at sharing of information from current sources

– Warranties

– Early warning system

– Relevant information from EDRs

Develop an agreed-upon set of data elements for EDRs that would

– Enable crash investigators to determine whether and which advanced features were engaged at the time of

the crash

– Facilitate understanding of crash etiology

Publicly available tools for downloading information from the EDRs by

– ASD

– NHTSA

– Research organizations

– Insurers

Why is this important?Other Headwinds on the Road to Zero

Headwinds on the Road to Zero--The economy

Motor vehicle

crash deaths have

declined significantly

in the U.S. during

the past 50+ years.

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20160

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Motor vehiclecrash deaths

Crash deaths perbillion vehicle miles traveled

201637,461 deaths

11.8 per billion

U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths

per billion vehicle miles traveled

1950-2016

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

Motor vehicle crash deaths

20%

U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate1950-2015

20155% rate

35,092 deaths

Unemployment rate

10%

15%

0%

U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled and unemployment rate1950-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

5

10

15

20

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Unemployment rate

Crash deaths perbillion vehicle miles traveled

11.2 per billion

5 percent

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Crash deaths perbillion vehicle miles traveled

Unemployment rate

Change in U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths per billion miles traveled and unemployment rate1950-2015

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

80%

40%

0%

-40%

-80%

Motor vehicle crash deaths, 1990-2015With projections for 2016-24

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

motor vehicle crash deaths

if unemployment remains steady at 4.9

if unemployment declines by 1.7% each year

if unemployment declines by 8.0% each year

Headwinds on the Road to Zero

--Rising speed limits

Maximum speed limitsOctober 2017

MD

DE

DC

MA

OR

RI

NJ

NH

ME

PA

WV

SC

GA

FL

OH

MI

INIL

WI

IA

MO

LA

NM

CO

SD

ID

CA

WA

TN

VT

MS

MT ND

NV

AZ

UT

WY

NE

KS

OK

TX

AR

AL

KY VA

NY

CT

AKHI

NC

MN

70 mph

75 mph

80 mph

85 mph

65 mph

60 mph

55 mph (DC only)

Effects of National Maximum Speed Limit

55 mph NMSL

– 3,000-5,000 fewer deaths in 1974

– 2,000-4,000 fewer deaths in 1983

Partial repeal

– 19 percent increase in deaths on rural interstates

– 2,000 more deaths during 1987-90

Full repeal

– 17 percent increase in fatality rates on interstates

– 1,000 more deaths during 1996-97

– 12,545 more deaths during 1995-2005

Deaths and expected deaths if maximum speed limits had not increased1993-2013

28,000

32,000

36,000

40,000

44,000

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

deaths

expected

1,900deaths

33,000 deaths

Legalizing recreational use of marijuana

--Another headwind?

Combined evaluation of legal recreational-use states

MD

DE

DC

MA

OR

RI

NJ

NH

ME

PA

WV

NC

SC

GA

FL

OH

MI

IL

WI

IA

MO

LA

NM

CO

SD

ID

CA

WA

TN

VT

MS

MT ND

NV

AZ

UT

WY

NE

KS

OK

TX

AR

MN

AL

KY VA

NY

CT

AKHI

IN

study states

control states

correlation with CO

correlation with WA

correlation with OR

0.480.380.70

0.610.440.58

0.690.550.68

0.540.680.80

0.530.530.55

Collision claims after legalization of recreational marijuana useCombined analysis of Colorado, Oregon, and Washington – HLDI 2017

study states Colorado, Washington, Oregon

additional control states Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming

calendar years January 2012-October 2016

exposure49,225,462 vehicle years

for vehicles up to 33 years of age

total number claims 2,494,668

outcome measurechanges in collision claims per insured

vehicle year

result2.7% increase in collision claims

(statistically significant)

Competing studies leave haze of uncertainty connecting marijuana to traffic accidents Colorado Politics, July 3, 2017

After-legalization traffic studies draw conflicting conclusions Ganjapreneur, June 26, 2017

Two U.S. studies differ over effects of marijuana on drivers U.S. News & World Report, June 22, 2017

Two studies about driving and marijuana have very different results Emerald Report, June 29, 2017

Studies offer conflicting conclusions on marijuana legalization’s role

in car crashes, fatalitiesThe Cannabist, June 23, 2017

Studies differ over impact of legalized pot on highway crash numbers Portland Press Herald, June 26, 2017

The jury is still out on legalizing marijuana impacting road collision rates Auto Evolution, June 28, 2017

Pre-period correlations of collision claim rates between study states and control states used by Aydelotte et al. 2017, AJPH

MD

DE

DC

MA

OR

RI

NJ

NH

ME

PA

WV

NC

SC

GA

FL

OH

MI

IL

WI

IA

MO

LA

NM

CO

SDID

CA

WA

TN

VT

MS

MT ND

NV

AZ

UT

WY

NE

KS

OK

TX

AR

MN

AL

KYVA

NY

CT

AKHI

IN

study states

control states0.03-0.15

correlation with CO

correlation with WA

-0.21-0.13

0.620.62

-0.030.37

0.470.22

0.01-0.07

-0.22-0.17

0.790.32

Crash deaths after legalization of recreational marijuana useColorado and Washington – Aydelotte et al. 2017, AJPH

study states Colorado and Washington

control states

Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri,

South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas,

Wisconsin

calendar years January 2009-December 2015

outcome measurechanges in annual motor vehicle crash

fatality rates per billion miles traveled

result2.7% increase in fatalities

(not statistically significant)

Established October 2016450 members

More information and links to our YouTube channel and Twitter feedat iihs.org

iihs.org

Adrian Lund, Ph.D.President

alund@iihs.org