HDIL - Alchemy

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    Bloomberg code ASSB

    Financial Highlights (Rs mn)

    Initiating coverageReduceRs63

    12 March 2009

    HDILHigh dependence on TDR market and weak macro outlookmakes us bearish. Initiating coverage with a Reduce rating

    Sastha Gudalore

    91-22-6639 9177

    [email protected]

    March end FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E

    Net sales 12,165 24,323 17,425 11,538 12,540

    Net profit 5,416 14,104 7,303 2,099 2,788

    EPS (Rs) 30.1 68.0 33.8 7.6 10.1

    PER (x) 2.0 8.9 6.7

    ROE (%) 118.8 64.6 18.0 4.6 5.8

    ROCE (%) 72.9 35.9 9.4 2.3 3.0

    EV/EBITDA (x) 2.5 2.5 6.5 17.3 14.4

    We believe that HDIL will underperform due to continual reduction invalue generated by the Mumbai airport project and a deterioratingtransfer of development rights (TDR) market. A large portion of its landbank (~70msf) is located in the Vasai/Virar region where we expectdevelopment to be slow. We initiate coverage on this stock with aReduce rating and a price target of Rs56/share.

    TDR prices still have more downside

    While home prices and commercial values have corrected by over20%, TDR prices have crashed over 75% from Rs4,200psf toRs1,000psf. We believe that oversupply and lack of demand in thismarket could push down prices even further. As HDILs FSIinventory depletes, it would be significantly dependent on TDRsales to generate revenues. TDRs comprise ~25% of HDILs landbank and the Mumbai airport project alone is expected to generate~50msf of TDR.

    Mumbai Airport Project has lost significant valueWe value the Mumbai Airport Project at Rs16/share which makes23% of its net asset value. The loss in value (compared to whatwas expected previously) is mainly due to an unprecedented fall inTDR prices and lack of demand/oversupply of commercial space.Currently, we believe that most of the project value will begenerated by the saleable portion of ~6.3msf (of the 53 acre PhaseI plot) which has a FSI of 4 (even for the saleable portion). Thecompany has announced residential development of 0.75msf in theplot. However, we believe that value will be created only if weassume commercial development in this plot. Given the crash inTDR prices, we do not believe that Phase II and Phase III of theproject will generate any meaningful value. Therefore, we believeHDIL could try and exit the project after Phase I, if it is allowed bythe contract.

    HDIL looking to de-risk its business model from SRS and mega

    structuresHDIL has opted out of bidding for Dharavi SRS project and haschanged its plan to launch a residential project in Kurla (instead of acommercial development). The management indicated that it willnot invest in SEZs for the next three years. We believe this is abetter strategy in this environment though HDIL still has some megastructure projects (Eveready, Bombay Oxygen, Kilburn land) in itspipeline which may require considerable capital investment.

    Valuation

    We estimate HDILs NAV at 69/share. We have arrived at our 12-monthprice target of Rs56/share after applying a discount of 20%. This impliesan 12% downside from current levels. We initiate coverage with aReduce rating.

    Reuters code HDIL.BO

    Bloomberg code HDIL IN

    Shares o/s 275.49 mn

    Mkt Cap Rs17bn / US$337mn

    52 week high/low Rs679/63

    Avg daily trading volume 21.70mn shares

    BSE Sensex 8160

    Nifty 2573

    Shareholding pattern (%)

    Promoters 61.5

    Flls 10.0

    Banks/FIs/MFs 0.5

    Public/Others 28.0

    Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m YTD

    Absolute -21.7 -29.0 -86.8 -51.2

    Relative to Sensex -8.0 -20.3 -74.2 -42.3

    Share Price Movement

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    Why should you read this report?

    We have valued the Mumbai Airport project

    separately

    Sensitivity of TDR prices on Mumbai Airport

    project

    Financial Highlights

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    Contents

    Mumbai focused land bank a positive.............................................................................................. 3

    Mumbai airport project: HDIL does not have any incentive to go beyond Phase I ......................... 3

    Mumbai Airport project and Phase I rehabilitation location ............................................................. 4

    Phase I details and valuation ...................................................................................... ..................... 4

    Key risks of Phase I............................ .............................................................................................. 5

    Complete project details and valuation............................................................................................ 5

    Key takeaways...................................................................................... .......................................... 5

    Projects under progress .............................................................................................. ..................... 8

    Valuation................ .............................................................................................. ............................ 9

    About HDIL............................................................................. ....................................................... 10

    Business Structure of HDIL......................................................................................... ................... 10

    SRS - Slum Rehabilitation Scheme .................................................................................. ............. 11

    Slum rehabilitation process .................................................................................... ........................ 12

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    MUMBAI FOCUSED LAND BANK A POSITIVEHDIL has a Mumbai focused land bank with over 87% in the MMR region. Transfer of

    development rights (TDR) forms a substantial portion of its land bank. Nearly 50msf of

    TDRs is expected to be generated by the Mumbai airport project itself. However, we

    note that ~70msf of its land bank lies in Vasai/Virar region where development is

    expected to be slow.

    Table 1: Large concentration of TDRs in land bank

    Land reserves Established

    developable area (msf)

    % of developable

    area

    Land owned by the company 95 48

    Land over which company has sole development 67 34

    MoU/agreements to acquire/letters of acceptance 21 11

    Joint development with partners 14 7

    Total 196 100

    Source: Company

    Although prices in the Mumbai market have corrected substantially recently, we view

    large land concentration in Mumbai as a positive as 1) Mumbai is a land locked region

    with limited free land available and 2) long term growth prospects in Mumbai look

    brighter as it is the financial hub of India.

    Chart 1: Overwhelming focus on Mumbai for future planned launches (133msf)

    81%

    11%7% 1%

    MMR Kochi Hyderabad Pune

    Source: HDIL, Alchemy Research

    MUMBAI AIRPORT PROJECT: HDIL DOES NOT HAVE ANY INCENTIVETO GO BEYOND PHASE IAbout the project

    The Mumbai Airport Project is the largest urban rehabilitation scheme in India. It

    involves rehabilitation of 80,000 to 85,000 slum families. The objective of the project

    (apart from rehabilitating slums) is to free up land for modernization of the Mumbai

    international airport.

    The project envisages clearance of 276 acres of land currently occupied by slum

    tenements close to the airport. The timeline of the project is 5 years. Phase I of the

    project involves rehabilitation of 18,000 to 20,000 families with a construction timeline

    of 15 to 18 months (completion by the end of CY09).

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    MUMBAI AIRPORT PROJECT AND PHASE I REHABILITATION LOCATION

    Source: HDIL, Google Maps, Alchemy Research

    PHASE I DETAILS AND VALUATION For phase I, HDIL is rehabilitating slum dwellers in 53 acres of land that it owns

    in Kurla (Premier Auto Factory). 38 acres will be used for rehabilitation while

    the remaining will be used for building residential/commercial developments forsale. HDIL will get an FSI of 4 for the entire plot including its residential and

    commercial saleable developments.

    Phase I rehabilitation development is scheduled to be completed by the end of2009.

    The company has launched a residential development at Kurla (a total of 756flats) last week at a price of Rs5,251psf. The company indicated that they had

    sold around 400 flats in the first two days of launch. Our assumptions of sale

    price are Rs5,250psf as it already at a significant discount to market rates.

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    We have assumed that the rest of the saleable area (5.55msf) in phase I willbe used for a commercial development.

    From Table 2, we get the per share value of Phase I to be Rs21/share.

    KEY RISKS OF PHASE IOversupply of commercial space and lack of capital may make the company decide

    to build residential apartments in the rest of the 5.55msf saleable area. This may

    result in a significant loss in value.

    Table 2: Phase I valuation results in a per share value of Rs21

    Phase I Comments

    No of families 18,000 18,000 to 20,000

    Land used for rehab (acres) 38

    Rehab area built (msf) 6.3 269sqft per tenement. Loading of 30%.

    Construction TDR (msf) 8.4 1.33X rehab area built

    Land TDR (msf) 2.2 1.33X land area used

    Total TDR (msf) 10.6

    Revenues (Rs mn)

    Residential component value (0.75msf) 2,047 Selling price of 5,250psf

    Commercial component value (5.55msf) 26,229 Capital value of Rs10,000psf, disc over 3.5yrs

    TDR sales (Rs mn) 8,987 Assuming PV of selling price of Rs850psfTotal sales (Rs mn) 37,557

    Costs

    Cost of land (mn) 19,000

    Construction cost (mn) 6,924 Taking Rs1,100psf construction cost

    SG&A (10% of revenues) (mn) 3,756

    Total costs (Rs mn) 29,680

    Income (Rs mn) 7,877

    Tax @ 25% 1,969

    Net present value (Rs mn) 5,908

    Net Value per share (Rs/share) 21

    Source: Alchemy Research Estimates

    COMPLETE PROJECT DETAILS AND VALUATION Project involves clearing 80,000 to 85,000 families from 276 acres of land.

    The current estimated timeline for the entire project is five years.

    Valuation of the entire project is just Rs16/share. (see table 3)

    Key takeawaysUnless the TDR market picks up, HDIL may not be very keen on completing the entire

    project as there is destruction in value of Rs5/share if it goes ahead with Phase II & III.

    It would therefore look to exit after completing Phase I. The government may have to

    give some incentives to keep HDIL interested in the project.

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    Table 3:Valuation of the entire project at Rs16/share implies destruction in value in Phase II&IIIMumbai Airport SRS project

    Assumptions

    Total land to be cleared (acres) 276

    A Nos of families 82,500 (around 80,000 to 85,000)

    B Carpet Area/family (sqft) 269

    Airport project cost

    Land CostC Land required for rehabilitation (acres) 165 (as per management guidance 150 to 180 acres)

    D Cost of land/acre ( Rs mn) 220 (220 as per management guidance)

    E Total land cost (mn) = C*D 36,300

    F Amount paid (Rs mn) 30,000 (Rs19bn paid in FY08 and Rs11bn is in loans & advances)

    Remaining cost to be paid (mn) 6,300

    G NPV of remaining cost 4,839 (discounted at 14% for two years)

    Rehab Construction Cost

    H Rehab Construction cost (psf) 1,100

    Rehab Construction cost (mn) = A*B*H*1.3 31,735 (loading of 30%)

    I PV value of construction cost (mn) 24,374 (discounting over an average of 2.5 years @ 14%)

    J Total cost of Airport project = F+G+I 59,213

    TDR generation

    Construction TDRConstruction TDR is based on the progress of construction at

    the rehab land rather than clearing of slums

    Rehab area constructed (msf) = A*B 22.2

    Loading 30%

    K Built-up area (msf) 28.9

    L Construction TDR (msf) = K*1.33 38.4 1.33X rehab area as this is a difficult project

    Land TDR

    M Area used for construction (acres) 165

    N Land TDR received (msf) = M*1.33*43560 9.6 1.33X (as this is land in the suburbs, you automatically get 1.33

    FSI Total TDR received (msf) = L+N 47.9

    O NPV of TDR revenues 30,266 (Using TDR prices of Rs900psf), sold over period of 10yrs

    P Residential development at Kurla (0.75msf) 2,047 (Selling price of 5250psf)

    Q Commercial component value (5.55msf) 26,229 (Capital value of Rs10,000psf), discount by 3.5 years

    R MIAL land (65 acres) 13,370 (Assuming land sale at Rs43crore an acre), discount by 5.5years

    Gross income of airport project (mn) O+P+Q+R 72,205

    minus:Total land + rehab construction cost 59,213

    minus:SG&A & other costs (10% of GI) 7,221

    Value of airport project 5,772mn

    Tax @ 25% 1,443

    Net present value of airport project 4,329mn

    Value per share (Rs) 16

    Source: Alchemy Research Estimates

    We have valued the Mumbai Airport redevelopment project as a whole at Rs16/share.

    However, we note that there are several fluid assumptions in this valuation and the mostcrucial is sensitivity to TDR prices. We did a sensitivity of the value of airport project

    by varying TDR prices. The results are listed in the table below. As can be seen from

    Table 4 we believe that the value of the project could be zero if TDR prices fall to

    Rs675psf.

    Table 4:Sensitivity of airport project value to TDR prices

    TDR prices (Rs psf) 1,200 1,000 900 800 700 675

    Airport project value/share (Rs) 37 23 16 9 2 0

    Source: Alchemy Research

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    HDIL looking to diversify risk from SRS does not bid for Dharavi SRS

    HDIL has opted out of bidding for Dharavi slum redevelopment but will look to

    participate in the project through sub-contracting by the eventual winners of the bid.

    HDILs application was always in doubt after its financial partner Lehman Brothers

    went bankrupt. We see this as a sign that all is not fine with the Mumbai Airport project

    and that the company believes that the Dharavi project would not be viable in the

    absence of a strong financial partner. SRS redevelopment projects require substantial

    capital for upfront construction of rehab houses. Although HDIL has restructured mostif the debt which was due over the next year (see section on HDIL making progress in

    restructuring debt), we estimate that it would have struggled to raise incremental debt

    for this project. HDIL is the largest player in the SRS space and has the best

    understanding of dynamics and capital requirements of these projects.

    Currently, we believe there is too much focus on large scale SRA developments and

    integrated townships. We believe that HDIL needs to change its business model to move

    away from parking funds in mega structure projects in the current environment.

    Demand has rapidly fallen off and so has the appetite for large scale projects.

    HDIL is currently working towards including residential developments in its product

    mix. If pre-launches of residential projects are even party successful, the project could

    receive some funds which can be utilized to fund construction.

    Dependence on TDR will pressure near term revenues

    A large portion of HDILs revenues are expected to be generated from TDRs which is a

    business to business (B2B) transaction where a developer buys incremental development

    rights through TDR. The company is expected to generate close to 50msf of TDR from

    the Mumbai Airport Project. TDR prices have fallen over 75% from Rs4200psf in

    March, 2008 to Rs900-1000, currently.

    TDR prices and demand for TDR has been affected by the following factors

    In March 2008, the government of Maharashtra increased the base FSI insuburbs to 1.33 from 1. A maximum FSI of upto 2 is allowed in the suburbs

    through the usage of TDR. The incremental FSI above the base FSI could be got

    through use of TDR. Now after the new rule, just 0.67msf of TDR is required (2

    minus 1.33msf) compared to 1msf of TDR previously (2 minus 1msf) to buildupto the maximum permissible FSI.

    TDR can only be used in the suburbs and north of where TDR was generated.As land available for development is limited in the suburbs and a huge quantum

    of TDR supply has entered the Mumbai market demand is lesser than supply

    which will pressure rates.

    A large number of developers have shelved new construction plans and scaleddown existing plans. This has reduced demand for TDR.

    TDR outlook continues to be weak

    TDR prices are down to around Rs900-1000psf. HDIL said that its cost of generating

    TDR works out to around Rs850psf which may indicate that TDR prices may be close

    to bottoming out. However, we believe that TDR prices could further trend downwardsas 1) demand is limited as developments are being pushed back or cancelled and 2)

    HDIL is dependant on TDRs to generate cash near term to fund its interest payments

    and hence will be willing to sell at discounted prices.

    Project completion methodology to recognize revenues is a positive

    HDIL recognizes revenues using the project completion methodology compared to

    percentage of completion methodology. The latter is widely followed in the real estate

    sector. While this leads to lumpiness in revenues, it is a much more conservative method

    of accounting. We believe this is a positive for the company as companies which follow

    POCM may have to write back revenues recognized if sales booked dont materialize.

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    DLF already expects to write down Rs200mn of revenues due to retrospective price cuts

    in Chennai.

    HDIL is making progress in restructuring debt

    The company is currently in the process of restructuring its short term debt to match

    cash outflows with inflows.

    In its 3QFY09 conference call, the management indicated that it had

    restructured/refinanced Rs6.5bn of debt until January 20, 2009. This took care of mostof its loan liability for the next six to nine months. The management also indicated that

    it was looking to restructure Rs12.75bn of non-convertible debentures (NCDs) which

    are due in FY10. The total repayment liability for the next fiscal was ~Rs.16bn. The

    company has subsequently restructured Rs12bn of NCDs at 12.5% for duration of three

    to five years.

    HDIL has therefore substantially improved its liquidity situation over the past month

    although we note that it still has a D/E of 0.92. This may result in difficulties in raising

    incremental debt. However, we note that the company has already tied down funding for

    Phase I of the Mumbai Airport Project and does not have any land repayments due for

    the next few months, as per the company.

    Table 5:Liquidity project funding details of HDIL

    Funding requirement CommentsMumbai airport Project Phase I Land paid for and Construction cost of ~Rs7bn tied

    SEZ project in Virar/Vasai No money expected to be invested in SEZs for 3

    years

    Residential

    Project Metropolis (Andheri) Fund by pre-launch of residential (300 flats) by March

    endKurla project Pre Launch at Rs5251psf.

    Reportedly booked 400 flats.

    Balance sheet/Cash flow

    Land repayments Nothing due over the next few months

    Annual gross interest of over Rs5bn Cash from TDR sales/ profits from residential sales

    Rs 16bn debt repayments in FY2010 Rs12bn has been restructured

    Source: Alchemy Research

    PROJECTS UNDER PROGRESSHDIL is planning to develop large scale townships in the Mumbai region 1) HDIL

    heights Ghatkopar East, 2) Bombay Oxygen land in Mulund, 3) HDIL Astra Navi

    Mumbai.

    The current ongoing residential projects are Kurla project, Project Metropolis at Four

    Bungalows (Andheri West), Pantnagar (Ghatkopar), and Grand (Bandra W) .

    The HDIL management said that it does not plan to put in any money into SEZs for the

    next three years.

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    Table 6:Major projects under progressResidential

    Project Location Saleable area (msf)

    Project Metropolis Andheri (W), Mumbai 1.7

    (Four bungalow) Residential (300 Flats) 0.45

    Commercial 1

    Retail 0.25

    Project Kurla Kurla, Mumbai 0.75(more than 850 flats)

    (1,1.5, 2 bhk flats)

    Pantnagar Project Pantnagar, Ghatkopar(E),

    Mumbai

    Low cost housing Virar, Mumbai

    Commercial

    Project Location Saleable area (msf)

    Commercial complex, IT Park Nahur, Mumbai

    Commercial complex, IT Park Turbhe, Navi Mumbai 1.8

    (approx 15 acres plot)

    Commercial complex, IT Park Mulund, Mumbai 1.5

    (Commercial, Residential, Retail)

    Commercial complex, IT Park Bhandup, Mumbai

    Cyber City Kalamasserry, Kochi 8

    Commercial complex, IT City

    Pune Kharadi, Pune 1.2

    Residential -0.4, Commercial -0. 8

    Source: Company, Alchemy Research

    Valuat ionWe have valued the company using the NAV methodology and have listed our

    assumptions below. We have arrived at our price target of Rs56/share after applying a

    discount of 20% to NAV. This implies a 12% discount to current market price.

    Table 7:Our NAV based valuation methodology gives a price target of Rs 56/share

    Valuation summary Rs mnMumbai airport project 40,829

    FSI /TDR sale 5,000

    Vasai/Virar/Palghar land 4,132

    Commercial & Retail 10,082

    Residential 4,164

    Gross Asset Value (GAV) 69,722

    Less: Net debt 39,579

    Less: other net liabilities 5,484

    Net Asset Value 24,660

    No of shares outstanding (millions) 275

    NAV per share 69

    Discount to value (%) 20

    Price target (Rs/share) 56Source: Alchemy Research

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    Table 8: Key assumptions driving our NAV analysis

    Parameter Assumptions

    Weighted avg cost of capital (%) 14

    Discount to NAV (%) 20

    Residential property selling prices

    Kurla 5,250 psf

    Andheri 8,000 psf

    Hyderabad 1,800 psfGhatkopar 5,500 psf

    Commercial property cap rate (%) 12

    Not valued Kochi Kalammassary as project is stuck in litigation

    SEZ

    Valued Virar/Vasai land at Rs2.5mn an acre

    Source: Alchemy Research

    About HDILThe Wadhawan group, promoter of HDIL, has over three decades of experience in the

    real estate business and have developed more than 100msf of area. HDIL went public in

    July 2007 and raised over Rs16bn of capital which was mainly used to fund construction

    of its projects, and acquisition of land and development rights. HDIL has completed 32

    projects upto December 31, 2008 which amounts to total developed area of 32.4msf.The company has established itself as a leader in the SRA business and is currently

    working on the Mumbai Airport slum rehabilitation project. It is one of the largest SRA

    projects involving rehabilitation of approximately 80,000 to 85,000 slum dwellers. The

    company currently has 15 ongoing projects of 61msf.

    BUSINESS STRUCTURE OF HDIL

    Source: Company

    New Business

    HDIL

    Core Business

    Commercial

    Residential

    Retail

    SRA/Land

    Development

    Infrastructure Entertainment

    SEZ

    Townships

    Multiplex

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    SRS-SLUM REHABILITATION SCHEMEAdvantages of slum rehabilitation projects

    Release of valuable land: Helps to release valuable land in the heart of the city.

    Low cost of land: Cost of land is only cost of construction of rehab buildingsfor the developer.

    Additional FSI: FSI of the land can range from 3 to 4 depending on the densityof slums being cleared.

    High barriers to entry as clearing slums require expertise.

    Disadvantages of slum projects

    The release of TDR through SRA adds to the already existing oversupply.

    The developer has to bear clearing and rehabilitation costs.

    SRA projects generally have large gestation periods.

    HDIL are specialists in slum redevelopment and have to date built total rehabilitation

    area of 3.31msf and saleable area of 3.6msf in slum land. HDIL has rehabilitated around

    25,000 of total 65,000 slum units in Mumbai. HDIL is also currently doing one of the

    largest SRA projects for rehabilitation of approximately 85,000 slum dwellers as a part

    of Mumbai airport modernization.

    Slum rehabilitation has tremendous scope in Mumbai given over 54% of Mumbais

    population lives in slums. However, recently many of these large projects are generating

    huge supply of TDR in the market. There is limited demand for TDR in the current

    environment.

    Table 9: As per Census 2001, 54% of Mumbai population lives in slums

    Municipal Corporation State Population Slum population % slum population

    (thousands) (thousands)

    Greater Mumbai Maharashtra 11,978 6,475 54.1

    Delhi Delhi 9,879 1,851 18.7

    Kolkata West Bengal 4,573 1,485 32.5

    Chennai Tamil Nadu 4,344 820 18.9Nagpur Maharashtra 2,052 737 35.9

    Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh 3,637 627 17.2

    Surat Gujarat 2,434 508 20.9

    Pune Maharashtra 2,538 492 19.4

    Faridabad Haryana 1,056 491 46.5

    Ahmadabad Gujarat 3,520 474 13.5

    Meerut Uttar Pradesh 1,069 472 44.2

    Bangalore Karnataka 4,301 431 10.0

    Jaipur Rajasthan 2,323 369 15.9

    Kanpur Uttar Pradesh 2,551 368 14.4

    Thane Maharashtra 1,263 351 27.8

    Source: Census 2001, HDIL

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    SLUM REHABILITATION PROCESS

    Source: SRA

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    Income Statement Rs mn

    March end FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E

    Net sales 12,165 24,323 17,425 11,538 12,540

    Growth (%) 176 100 (28) (34) 9

    Total expenses 5,237 6,352 6,256 5,885 5,809

    EBIDTA 6,502 16,895 9,157 3,614 4,491

    OPM (%) 54 71 55 34 39

    Other income 12,165 24,323 17,425 11,538 12,540

    Interest 445 1,385 1,875 1,932 1,990

    Depreciation 6 14 20 21 23

    PBT 6,182 16,021 8,073 2,499 3,400

    Tax 766 1,917 769 400 612

    Net profit 5,416 14,104 7,303 2,099 2,788

    Net profit margin (%) 45 58 42 18 22

    Cashflow Statement Rs mn

    March end FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E

    Cash from operations

    Net profit before tax 25,402 16,021 8,073 2,499 3,400

    Depreciation 578 14 20 21 23

    Working capital changes 23,854 15,706 8,386 2,520 3,423

    Operating cash flow (55,673) (39,341) (12,389) (1,490) (1,718)

    Capex 1,051 (451) (1,161) (253) (266)

    Free-cash flow (54,622) (39,792) (13,550) (1,743) (1,984)

    Increase in share capital 0 16,402 0 0 0

    Debt increase/(decrease) 72,517 27,371 11,923 1,500 2,000

    Miscellaneous expenses (24,086) (534) (1,034) 0 0

    Cash flows from financingactivities

    48,431 43,238 10,889 1,500 2,000

    Net change in cash and cashequivalents

    (6,191) 3,446 (2,661) (243) 16

    Cash at the beginning of the year 1,105 48 3,494 833 590

    Cash at the end of the year(5,086) 3,494 833 590 606

    Ratios

    March end FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E

    Valuation (x)

    EPS (Rs) 30.1 68.0 33.8 7.6 10.1

    BVPS (Rs) 40.4 178.5 172.1 170.1 180.2

    PER 2.0 8.9 6.7

    P/BV 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

    EV/EBITDA 2.5 2.5 6.5 17.3 14.4

    EV/EBIT 2.5 2.5 6.6 17.4 14.5

    Profitability (%)

    EBITDA margin (%) 54.0 71.0 55.1 33.8 38.7

    Net margin (%) 44.5 58.0 41.9 18.2 22.2ROE 118.8 64.6 18.0 4.6 5.8

    ROCE 72.9 35.9 9.4 2.3 3.0

    Turnover Ratios

    Credi tors Turnover 13.8 13.7 13.1 15.7 18.2

    (In months)

    Inventory Turnover 18.2 59.1 111.6 138.3 150.6

    (In months)

    Debtor Turnover 1.9 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.6

    (In months)

    Balance Sheet Rs mn

    March end FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E

    Equity share capital 1,800 2,143 2,755 2,755 2,755

    Reserves & surplus 5,468 34,229 42,013 44,112 46,900

    Networth 7,268 36,372 44,768 46,867 49,655

    Deferred tax l iab il ity 8 15 21 21 21

    Total debt 3,757 31,127 43,051 44,551 46,551

    Total sources of funds 11,033 67,515 87,840 91,439 96,227

    Net block 236 527 561 564 566

    Capital work-in-progress 3 52 127 127 127

    Investment 1,650 2,126 4,580 4,809 5,049

    Inventories 11,525 51,028 65,376 70,279 75,550

    Sundry debtors 3,103 558 1,530 1,606 1,687

    Cash & bank balance 48 3,494 833 590 606

    Loans & advances 2,319 16,343 21,847 21,847 21,847

    Current liabilities 7,219 4,917 6,849 8,219 9,040

    Provisions 632 1,696 165 165 165

    Net current assets 9,144 64,810 82,572 85,939 90,485

    Total uses of funds 11,033 67,515 87,840 91,439 96,227

    Source: Company, Alchemy

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    Alchemy

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    SalesArun Singh [email protected] 91-22-6639 9124/5

    DealingChetan Chitroda [email protected] 91-22-6639 9134

    Disclosure of interest statementAnalyst holding of the stock NO

    Firm holding of the stock NO

    Owners holding of the stock NO

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