HATHWAY CABLE & DATA COM - Business...

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Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited We recently interacted with Mr. G Subramaniam, CFO, Hathway Cable & Datacom (Hathway). The company is confident of seeding boxes within the October 31 deadline. It is well placed for digitisation as 75% of its subscriber base lies in Phase 1 & 2 areas. However, the full benefit of digitisation on subscription revenues in Phase 1 will be apparent only from Q1FY14 (lag of two quarters). With rapid digital subscriber additions, Hathway continues to execute the best amongst all MSOs. Maintain ‘BUY’. ARPUs to surge post digitisation Hathway intends to seed ~2.2mn boxes (1.2mn done) in Phase 1 cities of Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata. Once the entire digitisation process is complete, ARPUs are expected to surge to INR225 for Hathway vis-à-vis current secondary ARPU of INR160. The company has chalked out a strategy for its broadband business and intends to invest further in it post digitisation. As per management, apart from the issue of branding where MSOs lose out to DTH players, cable technology is superior to DTH and digital cable subscriber additions will outnumber DTH additions. Phase 1 digitisation on track in 3 cities Digitisation has been progressing at a rapid pace in Mumbai, followed by Kolkata and Delhi, while Chennai remains a laggard. Currently, Hathway has sufficient inventory of boxes (0.5mn). Recently, the subscription packs have been made public by the company. The Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (MIB) has upped the ante in terms of government-run publicity campaigns in electronic and print media. Outlook and valuations: Execution remains key; maintain ‘BUY’ Hathway is the best placed MSO to capitalise on the huge digitisation opportunity. Due to the ongoing digitisation process, the company’s EBITDA is likely to fluctuate on account of call centre expenses, ad expenses and LCO commissions. Hence, we value Hathway based on EV/sales multiple. Currently, the stock is trading at EV/sales of 3.3x and 2.7x FY13E and FY14E, respectively. Maintain ‘BUY/Sector Outperformer’. VISIT NOTE HATHWAY CABLE & DATACOM Uninterrupted reception EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS Absolute Rating BUY Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium Sector Relative to Market Equalweight MARKET DATA (R: HAWY.BO, B: HATH IN) CMP : INR 233 Target Price : INR 272 52-week range (INR) : 238 / 80 Share in issue (mn) : 142.9 M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 33/ 633 Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 615.8 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Current Q4FY12 Q3FY12 Promoters % 49.6 49.6 49.6 MF's, FI's & BK’s 19.4 19.4 14.2 FII's 24.3 24.3 24.3 others 6.7 6.7 11.9 * Promoters pledged shares (% of share in issue) : NIL PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Stock Nifty EW Media Index 1 month 29.7 6.9 0.9 3 months 27.9 10.8 23.3 12 months 139.9 15.3 10.5 Abneesh Roy +91 22 6620 3141 [email protected] Alankar Garude +91 22 6623 3301 [email protected] India Equity Research| Media October 3, 2012 Financials (consolidated) Year to March FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Revenues (INR mn) 8,827 10,121 12,097 14,390 Rev. growth (%) 20.4 14.7 19.5 19.0 EBITDA (INR mn) 1,501 1,676 2,189 2,686 Net profit (INR mn) (286) (458) (480) (302) Share outstanding (mn) 143 143 143 143 Diluted EPS (INR) (2.2) (3.4) (3.4) (2.1) EV/EBITDA (x) 24.0 22.6 18.0 14.7 EV/Sales (x) 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.7 ROAE (%) (2.8) (4.7) (4.9) (2.7)

Transcript of HATHWAY CABLE & DATA COM - Business...

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Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com,

Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset.

Edelweiss Securities Limited

We recently interacted with Mr. G Subramaniam, CFO, Hathway

Cable & Datacom (Hathway). The company is confident of seeding

boxes within the October 31 deadline. It is well placed for

digitisation as 75% of its subscriber base lies in Phase 1 & 2 areas.

However, the full benefit of digitisation on subscription revenues in

Phase 1 will be apparent only from Q1FY14 (lag of two quarters).

With rapid digital subscriber additions, Hathway continues to

execute the best amongst all MSOs. Maintain ‘BUY’.

ARPUs to surge post digitisation

Hathway intends to seed ~2.2mn boxes (1.2mn done) in Phase 1 cities of Mumbai,

Delhi and Kolkata. Once the entire digitisation process is complete, ARPUs are

expected to surge to INR225 for Hathway vis-à-vis current secondary ARPU of INR160.

The company has chalked out a strategy for its broadband business and intends to

invest further in it post digitisation. As per management, apart from the issue of

branding where MSOs lose out to DTH players, cable technology is superior to DTH and

digital cable subscriber additions will outnumber DTH additions.

Phase 1 digitisation on track in 3 cities

Digitisation has been progressing at a rapid pace in Mumbai, followed by Kolkata and

Delhi, while Chennai remains a laggard. Currently, Hathway has sufficient inventory of

boxes (0.5mn). Recently, the subscription packs have been made public by the

company. The Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (MIB) has upped the ante in

terms of government-run publicity campaigns in electronic and print media.

Outlook and valuations: Execution remains key; maintain ‘BUY’

Hathway is the best placed MSO to capitalise on the huge digitisation opportunity. Due

to the ongoing digitisation process, the company’s EBITDA is likely to fluctuate on

account of call centre expenses, ad expenses and LCO commissions. Hence, we value

Hathway based on EV/sales multiple. Currently, the stock is trading at EV/sales of 3.3x

and 2.7x FY13E and FY14E, respectively. Maintain ‘BUY/Sector Outperformer’.

VISIT NOTE

HATHWAY CABLE & DATACOM Uninterrupted reception

EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS

Absolute Rating BUY

Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer

Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium

Sector Relative to Market Equalweight

MARKET DATA (R: HAWY.BO, B: HATH IN)

CMP : INR 233

Target Price : INR 272

52-week range (INR) : 238 / 80

Share in issue (mn) : 142.9

M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 33/ 633

Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 615.8

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)

Current Q4FY12 Q3FY12

Promoters %

49.6 49.6 49.6

MF's, FI's & BK’s 19.4 19.4 14.2

FII's 24.3 24.3 24.3

others 6.7 6.7 11.9

* Promoters pledged shares

(% of share in issue)

: NIL

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)

Stock Nifty

EW Media

Index

1 month 29.7 6.9 0.9

3 months 27.9 10.8 23.3

12 months 139.9 15.3 10.5

Abneesh Roy

+91 22 6620 3141

[email protected]

Alankar Garude

+91 22 6623 3301

[email protected]

India Equity Research| Media

October 3, 2012

Financials (consolidated)

Year to March FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Revenues (INR mn) 8,827 10,121 12,097 14,390

Rev. growth (%) 20.4 14.7 19.5 19.0

EBITDA (INR mn) 1,501 1,676 2,189 2,686

Net profit (INR mn) (286) (458) (480) (302)

Share outstanding (mn) 143 143 143 143

Diluted EPS (INR) (2.2) (3.4) (3.4) (2.1)

EV/EBITDA (x) 24.0 22.6 18.0 14.7

EV/Sales (x) 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.7

ROAE (%) (2.8) (4.7) (4.9) (2.7)

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Key meeting takeaways

Phase 1 & 2: Hathway has already seeded ~1.2mn boxes in Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata, and

targets seeding of ~2.2mn boxes in these 3 metros. The company is specifically looking to

target Phase 1 & 2 because 75% of its ~8.9mn subscriber base lies in these areas. Phase 2

will be stretched, but Hathway is looking at options like extending vendor credit facility to

prevent dilution. If subscription revenue starts accruing on time, dilution may not be

necessary.

Upside in subscription revenues post Phase 1: Entire upside in subscription revenue due to

Phase 1 will be visible from Q1FY14.

ARPU: ARPUs are expected to stabilise at INR225 for Hathway compared to INR220-250

(like-to-like) currently for DTH players. Currently, secondary ARPU for Hathway is INR160.

Cable versus DTH: The only issue where cable loses out to DTH is that unlike the latter cable

operators do not have a significant brand.

Joint ads: Joint ads in major newspapers in metros cost Hathway just INR2.2mn.

Multi-TV homes: Hathway expects ~15% incremental multi-TV homes in Phase 1 cities.

Inventory: The company has 0.5mn boxes in inventory. Apart from these, 0.2mn boxes have

been ordered which can be used if competitors vacate some territories. If more than 0.5mn

boxes need to be added immediately, it can be done as contracts have been signed with

Cisco and NDS.

Subscription packs: In the Basic Pay Tier, Hathway expects 5-10% penetration. In mid-tier,

the company expects 70% penetration. And, in the high level tier, Hathway expects 25%

penetration. LCO also has incentive to push high level tier as he gets directly ~35% of the

higher-end package.

FTA channels: FTA channels will also pay to be in a particular package, which will be called

packaging charges.

Role of LCOs post-digitisation: LCOs will continue to own the last mile and hence it is

essential that they be kept satisfied in the current scheme of things. Competition from DTH

will keep a tab on LCOs. LCO will make ~INR70-80 per cable subscriber vis-à-vis INR120-130

he used to make in the analog scenario. LCOs will continue to collect payments. Subscribers

will also be given the option to use online and cheque drop options. LCOs can switch

allegiance, but other MSOs do not have extra boxes. Also, most MSOs do not have

broadband facility.

Fall in carriage fees: Since the number of channels will increase, the drop in per channel

carriage fees will be balanced by increase in overall carriage fees.

Subscriber acquisition cost (SAC): SAC of Hathway is INR900. SAC of DTH is INR2,300.

Broadband: Post-digitisation, Hathway will continue to invest in broadband. A small portion

of broadband revenue (10-15%) will be shared with LCO. 4G is not a competition to

Hathway because speed of wired technology will always be higher than wireless.

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3 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Acquisition opportunities: The company is currently focused on seeding boxes and is not

actively looking at acquisition opportunities. However, if any acquisition opportunity arises

post Phase 2, the company will consider it.

Acquisition price per subscriber: As per Hathway, ~15-20x ARPU is a good price to pay per

subscriber.

D/E ratio: The D/E ratio lies at a fairly comfortable 0.4 at June end.

Free cash flow: Hathway aims to be free cash flow positive by FY15.

Depreciation policy of boxes: Hathway depreciates set top boxes over 8 years. Activation

fee of ~INR500 is charged immediately. Earlier, it used to amortize over 5 years, which has

been extended to 8 years, in line with cable industry practice.

Table 1: Depreciation policy of listed MSOs/DTH players

Source: Edelweiss research

Subsidiary structure: 48 subsidiaries fall directly under Hathway. Some of these in turn have

further subsidiaries. Hathway will look at simplifying its subsidiaries’ structure over the next

1-2 years. Going forward, it does not envisage providing corporate guarantees to its JVs.

Call centre: Hathway’s call centre will have lesser seats than DTH providers. This is because

the company has the LCO who is a point of contact with the customer.

Number of channels: As of now, Hathway offers up to 250 channels in SD format and up to

20 channels in HD channels.

Providence: Providence Equity Advisors, which has acquired ~9.9% stake post Star India’s

stake sale in Hathway, typically has 5-6 years investment horizon and specialises in

consolidation of cable businesses.

Entertainment tax: Hathway expects entertainment tax in Mumbai to dip in the future from

INR45 currently.

Competition: As of now, there has not been irrational competition. However, as per

Hathway, 1-2 MSOs can turn more aggressive.

Consolidation: In a few years, smaller MSOs like Ortel (Orissa), Manthan (Kolkata), Seven

Star (Mumbai) and Atria (Bengaluru) will consolidate. India can support a maximum of 15

MSOs. This can happen in 3-4 years. In US, there are 10-12 MSOs.

FDI hike to 74%: There is not much room for foreign direct investment in Hathway as

promoter holding is very high.

Company

Set-top box activation

revenue recognition

Depreciation policy of

set top boxes

Dish TV 5 years 5 years

Hathway In the 1st year 8 years

Den Networks In the 1st year 8 years

WWIL In the 1st year 5 years

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HD recorder: Hathway’s HD recorder is likely to be launched by FY13 end.

Delhi: Due to distributor model in Delhi, extra 2-3% of ARPU has to be shared with

distributors.

Digitisation: On the right track

The latest review of digitisation by the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (MIB)

suggests that ~73% digitisation has been achieved in four metros. The data shows a healthy

addition of ~1.7mn boxes during the past three months in metros. MIB has upped the ante

in terms of government-run publicity campaigns in electronic and print media. Also, in our

view, joint ads issued by major MSOs and individual ads by DTH players, apart from the

firmness of MIB in meeting the deadline, augur well for the progress of digitisation.

Without relying on industry estimates, this time around MIB has relied on 2011 Census data

with respect to total households, TV penetration and households having TV sets. Because of

this revised calculation methodology, the potential subscriber base in Phase 1 stands at

~6.8mn vis-à-vis ~12.5mn. Following are the key takeaways from the latest MIB review:

• As per 2011 census, there are ~10.4mn households in four metros.

• 80% average TV penetration assumed, which means ~8.3mn TV households.

• ~8.3mn TV households: ~2.6mn are DTH and ~5.7mn cable TV households.

• By making a 20% incremental provision for multi-TV cable households, total cable TV

subscribers in metros stand at ~6.8mn.

• Out of these ~6.8mn cable TV subscribers in metros, ~5mn boxes have already been

installed, a penetration of 73%.

• Out of its ~1.9mn potential subscriber base, Mumbai has achieved 95% penetration and

seeded ~1.8mn boxes vis-à-vis ~1.2mn boxes at May end.

• Currently, Kolkata has seeded ~1.3mn boxes vis-à-vis ~0.6mn at May end. The

penetration level in Kolkata now stands at ~70%.

• Delhi has seeded ~1.3mn boxes, up from ~0.8mn boxes at May end. The penetration

level in Delhi is ~60%.

• Digitisation has not moved forward in Chennai at all with 0.25mn digital subscribers.

In another significant development for digitisation, four large MSOs (Hathway, Den

Networks, WWIL and Digicable) have announced their consumer packages. We expect the

announcement of packages to bring further clarity to subscribers about subscription charges,

and speed up the digitisation process. Lack of consumer packs was a major product gap in

comparison to DTH. In our view, signing of the inter-connect agreements and

announcement of consumer packages signal the crossing of two significant hurdles in the

completion of Phase 1 of digitisation before the October 31, 2012 deadline. Amongst MSOs,

Hathway will be offering three packs of 135, 198 and 242 channels for INR160, INR220 and

INR275, respectively. Similarly, Den Networks has announced three packs offering 112, 219

and 235 channels for INR180, INR225 and INR270, respectively. WWIL will charge INR100 for

the basic package of 118 channels and INR150 for the other three packages, each of which

are specific to Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata. Apart from these packages, consumers will also

be given the option of choosing channels from an a la carte list. All the above packages are

exclusive of entertainment and service taxes. In comparison, Dish TV offers 205 channels for

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Hathway Cable & Datacom

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INR200 (as per our analysis INR178 ex-service tax), 235 channels for INR255, 245 channels

for INR305, 270 channels for INR380 and 280 channels for INR400. All of Dish TV’s pack

prices are inclusive of service tax.

Table 2: Consumer packages of different MSOs and Dish TV

Source: Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, Edelweiss research

Also, Ms. Ambika Soni, I&B Minister, had recently met the Delhi Chief Minister, where the

latter assured that Delhi will meet the deadline and the state government will take steps in

this direction (Delhi has been a laggard compared to Mumbai). Ms. Soni has again reiterated

that the Phase 1 deadline will not be extended. According to Ms. Soni, ~90% TV households

(including DTH homes) in Mumbai have installed set top boxes, followed by Kolkata with

~77% and Delhi and Chennai both with ~70% TV households each having set top boxes. Even

though Delhi remains a laggard, the Delhi government has assured that digitisation will be

completed in the city by the Phase 1 deadline, and it will launch a campaign soon to educate

subscribers about the approaching deadline.

MSO Package

Number of

channels

Rate exclusive of

taxes (INR)

Rate per

channel (INR)

Hathway Basic 135 160 1.2

Medium 198 220 1.1

Premium 242 275 1.1

Den Networks Pack 1 112 180 1.6

Pack 2 219 225 1.0

Pack 3 235 270 1.1

WWIL Janta 118 100 0.8

Popular 1 (Kolkata) 151 150 1.0

Popular 2 (Mumbai) 153 150 1.0

Popular 3 (Delhi) 142 150 1.1

Digicable Basic 145 180 1.2

Gold 151 200 1.3

Premium 165 250 1.5

DTH operator Package

Number of

channels

Rate inclusive of

service tax (INR)

Rate per

channel (INR)

Dish TV Super Family 205 200 1.0

Super Gold 235 255 1.1

Super World 245 305 1.2

Super Platinum 270 380 1.4

Paradise 280 400 1.4

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Outlook and valuations: Execution remains key; maintain ‘BUY’

Hathway is the best placed cable company to capitalise on the huge digitisation opportunity.

Due to the ongoing digitisation process, EBITDA is likely to fluctuate due to call centre

expenses, ad expenses and LCO commissions. Hence, we value Hathway based on EV/sales

multiple. Currently, the stock is trading at EV/sales of 3.3x and 2.7x FY13E and FY14E,

respectively. Assigning Hathway a FY14E EV/sales target of 3.0x, we derive a target price of

INR272. We maintain ‘BUY’ recommendation and rate it ‘Sector Outperformer’.

Chart 1: Quarter-wise digital subscriber base—On the rise

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

Fig. 1: Hathway’s SD and HD set top boxes

Source: Company website

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Fig. 2: Joint ads by leading MSOs in newspapers

Source: Company

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Company Description

Hathway is one the largest MSOs as well as one of the leading cable broadband service

providers in India. Having entered the cable and entertainment business in 1995, the

company offers three broad services—analog cable television, digital cable television and

broadband internet. Its key promoter is the Rajan Raheja Group with a ~49.6% stake. While

Hathway currently provides analog TV services in 140 cities, it is the largest digital cable TV

provider in India. It is also the first cable TV service provider to offer broadband services in

19 cities. The company has bagged the ‘Best Cable TV Operator of the Year’ award by the

Indian Television Awards eight times. Hathway has launched a channel Hathway Music

(music channel).

Investment Theme

The compulsory digitisation mandate will lead to digitisation of cable TV services across

India by CY14 end. Converting its existing analog subscriber base on the digital platform will

provide Hathway a huge opportunity to increase subscription revenue due to lower under-

declaration and higher ARPU. Hathway’s digitisation progress is on track and the company

will be looking to build on to its broadband subscriber base as well.

Key Risks

• DTH players can leverage on first mover, stronger brand advantage

• Fund raising may be required in subsequent phases

• Loss of subscribers if LCOs shift loyalties

• Intense competition may limit ARPU growth

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Hathway Cable & Datacom

Financial Statements

Key Assumptions

Year to March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Macro - GDP(Y-o-Y %) 8.4 8.4 6.5 6.4 7.0

Inflation (Avg) 3.6 9.9 8.8 7.0 6.0

Repo rate (exit rate) 5.0 6.8 8.5 7.3 6.8

USD/INR (Avg) 47.4 45.6 47.9 53.5 50.0

Company - Paying subscribers (mn) 1.6 1.7 1.9 3.0 4.0

Primary subscribers' ARPU (INR) 183 176 177 186 195

Broadband subscribers (mn) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7

Pay channel costs (% of rev.) 39.9 40.6 40.8 40.7 41.0

Income statement (INR mn)

Year to March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Net revenue 7,332 8,827 10,121 12,097 14,390

Pay channel cost 2,924 3,622 4,295 5,133 6,116

Employee costs 748 898 926 1,270 1,511

Operating expenses 2,406 2,806 3,224 3,505 4,077

Total operating expenses 6,077 7,326 8,445 9,908 11,703

EBITDA 1,254 1,501 1,676 2,189 2,686

Depreciation and amortisation 1,111 1,249 1,409 1,804 2,008

EBIT 143 252 268 385 679

Other income 68 255 165 169 173

Foreign exchange gain/(loss) 6 - - - -

Interest expenses 556 452 520 602 686

Exceptionals 167 167 148 148 148

Profit before tax (506) (112) (235) (195) 18

Provision for tax 156 127 153 183 218

Net profit (662) (239) (388) (378) (200)

Extraordinary income/ (loss) (47) 23 32 - -

Minority interest 92 71 102 102 102

Profit after minority interest (801) (286) (458) (480) (302)

Shares outstanding (mn) 120 143 143 143 143

Diluted EPS (INR) (6.3) (2.2) (3.4) (3.4) (2.1)

Common size metrics - as % of net revenues

Year to March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Employee expenses 10.2 10.2 9.1 10.5 10.5

Direct Cost 72.7 72.8 74.3 71.4 70.8

EBITDA margins 17.1 17.0 16.6 18.1 18.7

Net profit margins (9.0) (2.7) (3.8) (3.1) (1.4)

Growth ratios (%)

Year to March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Rev. growth (%) 10.6 20.4 14.7 19.5 19.0

EBITDA 21.3 19.7 11.7 30.6 22.7

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Balance sheet (INR mn)

As on 31st March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Equity capital 1,429 1,429 1,429 1,429 1,429

Employee stock option O/S 19 - - - -

Reserves & surplus 7,378 7,090 6,598 6,118 5,816

Shareholders funds 8,826 8,518 8,028 7,547 7,245

Minority interest (BS) 1,280 1,484 1,802 1,904 2,007

Secured loans 4,482 3,197 3,727 4,800 5,500

Unsecured loans 125 337 213 213 213

Borrowings 4,607 3,533 3,940 5,013 5,713

Deferred tax liability 82 90 103 103 103

Sources of funds 14,796 13,625 13,873 14,568 15,068

Gross block 13,487 15,350 17,623 19,823 21,823

Depreciation 3,991 5,046 6,463 8,267 10,274

Net block 9,497 10,304 11,160 11,556 11,548

Capital work in progress 274 512 1,005 1,000 1,200

Investments 4,183 1,861 158 300 500

Inventories 42 47 55 42 75

Sundry debtors 1,955 2,529 2,492 3,540 3,635

Cash and equivalents 1,004 390 976 408 957

Loans and advances 1,484 1,843 1,923 2,268 2,697

Total current assets 4,485 4,809 5,445 6,257 7,365

Sundry creditors and others 2,112 1,225 1,583 1,773 2,269

Others current liabilities 1,412 2,501 2,203 2,661 3,166

Provisions 119 136 110 110 110

Total current liabilities & provisions 3,643 3,862 3,896 4,545 5,545

Net current assets 842 947 1,550 1,712 1,819

Uses of funds 14,796 13,625 13,873 14,568 15,068

Book value per share (INR) 73.7 59.6 56.2 52.8 50.7

Free cash flow (INR mn)

Year to March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Net profit (801) (286) (458) (480) (302)

Depreciation 1,111 1,249 1,409 1,804 2,008

Deferred tax 30 10 14 - -

Others 1,019 597 1,119 534 615

Gross cash flow 1,359 1,571 2,084 1,858 2,320

Less: Changes in WC (9) 500 448 730 (442)

Operating cash flow 1,368 1,071 1,636 1,128 2,762

Less: Capex 1,232 2,101 2,766 2,195 2,200

Free cash flow 136 (1,030) (1,129) (1,067) 562

Cash flow metrics

Year to March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Operating cash flow 1,368 1,071 1,636 1,128 2,762

Investing cash flow (5,644) 777 (1,515) (2,167) (2,227)

Financing cash flow 4,828 (1,713) (147) 471 14

Net cash flow 552 135 (26) (568) 549

Capex (1,232) (2,101) (2,766) (2,195) (2,200)

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11 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Hathway Cable & Datacom

Peer comparision valuation

CMP M. Cap

Company (INR) (INR bn) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Dish TV 82 87 NM NM 14.8 10.9 4.1 3.2

Hathway Cable & Datacom 233 33 NM NM 18.0 14.7 3.3 2.7

Jagran Prakashan 92 29 10.6 12.2 8.0 6.7 1.8 1.5

PVR 216 6 10.9 10.9 6.7 6.4 1.0 0.9

Sun TV Network 359 141 19.9 17.4 8.6 7.4 6.5 5.6

Zee Entertainment 197 190 28.4 24.1 19.9 16.1 5.2 4.6

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/sales (x)

Profitability & efficiency ratios

Year to March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

ROAE (%) (11.6) (2.8) (4.7) (4.9) (2.7)

ROACE (%) 1.4 2.3 2.1 2.8 4.7

Inventory day 3 3 2 2 2

Debtors days 95 93 91 91 91

Payable days 152 95 68 71 72

Current ratio 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3

Debt/EBITDA 3.7 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1

Fixed asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2

Debt/Equity 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8

Adjusted debt/equity 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8

Interest coverage 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0

Operating ratios

Year to March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Total asset turnover 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0

Fixed asset turnover 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2

Equity turnover 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9

Valuation parameters

Year to March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

Diluted EPS (INR) (6.3) (2.2) (3.4) (3.4) (2.1)

CEPS (INR) 3.2 6.7 6.5 9.3 11.9

Price/BV (x) 3.2 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6

EV/Sales (x) 3.2 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 22.8 24.0 22.6 18.0 14.7

FCFPS (INR) 1.1 (7.2) (7.9) (7.5) 3.9

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12 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Company Absolute

reco

Relative

reco

Relative

risk

Company Absolute

reco

Relative

reco

Relative

Risk

Dish TV India BUY SP M Hathway Cable & Datacom BUY SO M

Jagran Prakashan BUY SP M PVR BUY SP M

Sun TV Network UNDER REVIEW UNDER REVIEW M Zee Entertainment Enterprise BUY SO M

RATING & INTERPRETATION

ABSOLUTE RATING

Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months

Buy More than 15%

Hold Between 15% and - 5%

Reduce Less than -5%

RELATIVE RETURNS RATING

Ratings Criteria

Sector Outperformer (SO) Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Performer (SP) Stock return > 0.75 x Sector return

Stock return < 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Underperformer (SU) Stock return < 0.75 x Sector return

Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe

within the sector

RELATIVE RISK RATING

Ratings Criteria

Low (L) Bottom 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Medium (M) Middle 1/3rd percentile in the sector

High (H) Top 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Risk ratings are based on Edelweiss risk model

SECTOR RATING

Ratings Criteria

Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return

Equalweight (EW) Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return

Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return

Underweight (UW) Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return

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13 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Hathway Cable & Datacom

Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.

Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected]

Vikas Khemani Head Institutional Equities [email protected] +91 22 2286 4206

Nischal Maheshwari Co-Head Institutional Equities & Head Research [email protected] +91 22 4063 5476

Nirav Sheth Head Sales [email protected] +91 22 4040 7499

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Media

Dish TV India, Hathway Cable & Datacom, Jagran Prakashan, PVR, Sun TV Network, Zee Entertainment Enterprise

Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap

Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe

Rating Distribution* 113 53 19 186

* 1 stocks under review

Market Cap (INR) 114 58 14

Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos

Recent Research

01-Oct-12 Media MSO packs: Another cog in

digitisation wheel;

EdelFlash

24-Sep-12 Media HITS: Will DTH/MSOs be

impacted?; Sector Update

21-Sep-12 ZEE Bangla movie channel to firm

up regional efforts;

EdelFlash

Buy 185

> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn

Buy Hold Reduce Total

Rating Interpretation

Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period

Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period

Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period

Rating Expected to

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14 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Media

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