Harvest Control Rules in different fishery contexts Workshop on Harvest Control Rules for...

Harvest Control Rules in different fishery contexts

Harvest Control Rules in different fishery contexts

Workshop on Harvest Workshop on Harvest Control Rules for Control Rules for

Sustainable Fisheries Sustainable Fisheries ManagementManagement

Bergen 13-15 September 2004 Bergen 13-15 September 2004

Kjartan Hoydal Kjartan Hoydal

Workshop Harvest Control Rules Bergen 13-15 September 2004 2

Personal profilePersonal profile

In former lives I have worked as scientist in In former lives I have worked as scientist in Denmark and Faroe Islands, as a fisheries manager Denmark and Faroe Islands, as a fisheries manager and negotiator and as officer in international and negotiator and as officer in international organisations like ICES, Nordic Council of organisations like ICES, Nordic Council of Ministers and NEAFC. I have recently evaluated Ministers and NEAFC. I have recently evaluated the strategy for Nordic Fisheries Cooperation.the strategy for Nordic Fisheries Cooperation.

At present Secretary, NEAFC in LondonAt present Secretary, NEAFC in London

However, this presentation is in a personal However, this presentation is in a personal capacity and does not reflect NEAFC positionscapacity and does not reflect NEAFC positions


Main suggestions of the presentationMain suggestions of the presentation Harvest control rules make sense, but they are Harvest control rules make sense, but they are

generally, to a too large extent, weighed towards generally, to a too large extent, weighed towards ecological criteria in the North-East Atlanticecological criteria in the North-East Atlantic

The focus on fish stocks in the scientific advice in The focus on fish stocks in the scientific advice in recent years makes it difficult or impossible to recent years makes it difficult or impossible to establish sensible rules for many complex fisheries establish sensible rules for many complex fisheries and to bring social, economic and ethical dimensions and to bring social, economic and ethical dimensions into playinto play

There are in many cases problems There are in many cases problems with determining with determining where we are with respect to reference points or where we are with respect to reference points or indicatorsindicators..


The search for sustainable developmentThe search for sustainable development

Sustainable development is “development that Sustainable development is “development that meets the needs of the present generation meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" generations to meet their own needs" (WCED, 1987).(WCED, 1987).


Definition SustainabilityDefinition Sustainability

is to is to plan, develop and manageplan, develop and manage fisheries fisheries

in a way that addresses the in a way that addresses the multiple needs multiple needs and and

desires of society;desires of society;

without jeopardising without jeopardising the the options for future benefitsoptions for future benefits from the full from the full range of range of goods and servicesgoods and services provided by provided by marine ecosystemsmarine ecosystems

FAO 1999FAO 1999


Optimal use of natural resources The Economist’s point of view Optimal use of natural resources The Economist’s point of view Social importance implies the need for Social importance implies the need for

optimal useoptimal use

Optimal use = maximization of flow of Optimal use = maximization of flow of benefits from the resources over timebenefits from the resources over time (Nota bene: market and non-market benefits) (Nota bene: market and non-market benefits)

Optimality is crucialOptimality is crucial Anything else implies social wasteAnything else implies social waste


Optimal use and SustainabilityOptimal use and Sustainability

Optimal use may or may not imply sustainabilityOptimal use may or may not imply sustainability Renewable resources onlyRenewable resources only Optimality sometimes implies depletionOptimality sometimes implies depletion

However…..However….. Maximum present value of benefits usually implies sustainabilityMaximum present value of benefits usually implies sustainability Communities’ desire to last implies sustainabilityCommunities’ desire to last implies sustainability International pressure for sustainable resource useInternational pressure for sustainable resource use

Fishing communities become the custodians of their natural resources on behalf of the global community

Sustainability! Ragnar Árnason 2001Ragnar Árnason 2001


Several Nordic Fisheries are highly rated with respect to management

Several Nordic Fisheries are highly rated with respect to management

A recent book “The end of the line” by A recent book “The end of the line” by Charles Clover gives the Icelandic ITQ Charles Clover gives the Icelandic ITQ system 8 out of 10 points, the Faroese ITQE system 8 out of 10 points, the Faroese ITQE system 6 and Norway’s management of system 6 and Norway’s management of Barents sea cod 3 Barents sea cod 3

In a recent survey by the SAUP North In a recent survey by the SAUP North Atlantic fisheries managements also gets Atlantic fisheries managements also gets high markshigh marks


SAUP sustainability rankingSAUP sustainability rankingRegion Country Aggr. Rank

Nordic Non-EU Faroe Is. 63.3 1Non-EU Greenland 61.6 2Non-EU Norway 57.4 3Non-EU Iceland 55.1 4

North America USA 52.6 5

EU Germany 51.6 6

Nordic EU Denmark 49.7 7

EU UK&Wales 48.5 8

North America Canada 47 9

EU Spain 45.3 10

EU Netherland 40.7 11


The purpose of regulating the exploitation of fishery resourcesThe purpose of regulating the exploitation of fishery resources To establish long term sustainable To establish long term sustainable

frameworks which keep the impact of frameworks which keep the impact of fisheries inside certain levelsfisheries inside certain levels

Reduce the risk of avoidable and Reduce the risk of avoidable and irreversible changes to the ecosystems irreversible changes to the ecosystems

Create a basis for profitable fisheries the Create a basis for profitable fisheries the essential part being to “calibrate” the essential part being to “calibrate” the fishing fleets to the resourcefishing fleets to the resource


Harvest control rules. What for ? Harvest control rules. What for ? A cynic would say they are an attempt to move decisions A cynic would say they are an attempt to move decisions

on catch/effort levels out of annual political horse tradingon catch/effort levels out of annual political horse trading A more favourable interpretation is that they are an attempt A more favourable interpretation is that they are an attempt

to agree on a medium or long term target for fisheries in to agree on a medium or long term target for fisheries in advance advance

For shared and straddling stock the allocation problem is a For shared and straddling stock the allocation problem is a prerequisite for establishing robust harvest control rulesprerequisite for establishing robust harvest control rules

Without proper implementation and enforcement – forget Without proper implementation and enforcement – forget about itabout it


NEAFC Medium and Long Term Management Plans NEAFC Medium and Long Term Management Plans Management plans have been agreed by the Management plans have been agreed by the

relevant coastal states forrelevant coastal states for Norwegian spring spawning (Atlanto-Scandian) Norwegian spring spawning (Atlanto-Scandian)

herringherring MackerelMackerel Blue whitingBlue whiting For the pelagic fishery for S. mentella there are no For the pelagic fishery for S. mentella there are no

agreed common objectives and the same is the agreed common objectives and the same is the case for deep sea fisheries case for deep sea fisheries


Herring Herring 1. Every effort shall be made to maintain a level of 1. Every effort shall be made to maintain a level of

Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) greater than the Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) greater than the critical levelcritical level((BBlimlim) of 2 500 000 t.) of 2 500 000 t.

2. For the year 2001 and subsequent years, the 2. For the year 2001 and subsequent years, the Parties agreed to restrict their fishing on the basis Parties agreed to restrict their fishing on the basis of a TAC consistent with a fishing mortality rate of of a TAC consistent with a fishing mortality rate of less than 0.125 for appropriate age groups as less than 0.125 for appropriate age groups as defined by ICES, unless future scientific advice defined by ICES, unless future scientific advice requires modification of this fishing mortality rate.requires modification of this fishing mortality rate.


Herring Herring 3. Should the SSB fall below a reference point of 5 000 3. Should the SSB fall below a reference point of 5 000

000 t 000 t ((BBpapa), the fishing mortality rate referred to under ), the fishing mortality rate referred to under paragraph 2, shall be adapted in the light of scientific paragraph 2, shall be adapted in the light of scientific estimates of the conditions to ensure a safe and rapid estimates of the conditions to ensure a safe and rapid recovery of the SSB to a level in excess of 5 000 000 t. recovery of the SSB to a level in excess of 5 000 000 t. The basis for such an adaptation should be at least a The basis for such an adaptation should be at least a linear reduction in the fishing mortality rate from 0.125 linear reduction in the fishing mortality rate from 0.125 at Bat Bpapa (5 000 000 t) to 0.05 at B (5 000 000 t) to 0.05 at Blimlim (2 500 000 t). (2 500 000 t).

4. The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise 4. The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these management measures and strategies on the basis these management measures and strategies on the basis of any new advice provided by ICES.of any new advice provided by ICES.


Mackerel Mackerel “ “For 2000 and subsequent years, the For 2000 and subsequent years, the

Parties agreed to restrict their fishing on Parties agreed to restrict their fishing on the basis of a TAC consistent with a fishing the basis of a TAC consistent with a fishing mortality in the range of 0.15 - 0.20 for mortality in the range of 0.15 - 0.20 for appropriate age groups as defined by ICES, appropriate age groups as defined by ICES, unless future scientific advice requires unless future scientific advice requires modification of the fishing mortality rate.”modification of the fishing mortality rate.”


Mackerel Mackerel “ “Should the SSB fall below a reference point of Should the SSB fall below a reference point of

2 300 000 tonnes 2 300 000 tonnes ((BBpapa), the fishing mortality rate, ), the fishing mortality rate, referred to under paragraph 1, shall be adapted in referred to under paragraph 1, shall be adapted in the light of scientific estimates of the conditions the light of scientific estimates of the conditions prevailing. Such adaptation shall ensure a safe prevailing. Such adaptation shall ensure a safe and rapid recovery of the SSB to a level in excess and rapid recovery of the SSB to a level in excess of 2 300 000 tonnes.”of 2 300 000 tonnes.”

“ “The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these management measures and strategies revise these management measures and strategies on the basis of any new advice provided by ICES.”on the basis of any new advice provided by ICES.”


Blue Whiting Blue Whiting 1. Every effort shall be made to prevent the stock 1. Every effort shall be made to prevent the stock

from falling below the minimum level of Spawning from falling below the minimum level of Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) of 1 500 000 tonnes.Stock Biomass (SSB) of 1 500 000 tonnes.

2. For 2003 and subsequent years, the Parties 2. For 2003 and subsequent years, the Parties agreed to restrict their fishing on the basis of a agreed to restrict their fishing on the basis of a TAC consistent with a fishing mortality less than TAC consistent with a fishing mortality less than 0.32 for appropriate age groups as defined by 0.32 for appropriate age groups as defined by ICES, unless future scientific advice requires ICES, unless future scientific advice requires modification of the fishing mortality rate.modification of the fishing mortality rate.


Blue Whiting Blue Whiting 3. Should the SSB fall below a reference point of 2 250 3. Should the SSB fall below a reference point of 2 250

000 tonnes 000 tonnes ((BBpapa) the fishing mortality rate, referred to under ) the fishing mortality rate, referred to under paragraph 1, shall be adapted in the light of scientific paragraph 1, shall be adapted in the light of scientific estimates of the conditions then prevailing. Such an estimates of the conditions then prevailing. Such an adaptation shall ensure a safe and rapid recovery of the adaptation shall ensure a safe and rapid recovery of the SSB to a level in excess of 2 250 000 tonnes.SSB to a level in excess of 2 250 000 tonnes.

4. In order to enhance the potential yield, the Parties shall 4. In order to enhance the potential yield, the Parties shall implement appropriate measures, which will reduce catches implement appropriate measures, which will reduce catches of juvenile blue whiting.of juvenile blue whiting.

5. The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these 5. The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these management measures and strategies on the basis of any management measures and strategies on the basis of any new advice provided by ICES.new advice provided by ICES.


Features of the three plansFeatures of the three plans

The mackerel plan starts with fishing mortality /fishing The mackerel plan starts with fishing mortality /fishing effort. The other start with Spawning Stock Biomass, but effort. The other start with Spawning Stock Biomass, but SSB status is the overriding concernSSB status is the overriding concern

All three plans establish a level of fishing mortality All three plans establish a level of fishing mortality which is consistent with long term spawning stock levels which is consistent with long term spawning stock levels above Babove Bpapa

The The Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these Parties shall, as appropriate, review and revise these management measures and strategies on the basis of any management measures and strategies on the basis of any new advice provided by ICESnew advice provided by ICES..

This means under current annual regime checks every This means under current annual regime checks every year of SSB levels and F levels.year of SSB levels and F levels.


Assessments AS Herring Fishing MortalityAssessments AS Herring Fishing Mortality

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

year

F b

ar

2002 Assessement

2003 assessment

2004 Assessment

Fpa


Assessments AS Herring Spawning Stock BiomassAssessments AS Herring Spawning Stock Biomass

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

year

SS

B

2002 Assessement

2003 assessment

2004 Assessment

Bpa


Assessments Blue whiting Fishing MortalityAssessments Blue whiting Fishing Mortality

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

year

Fba

r

2002 assessment

2003 ICA assessment

2003 ISPVA assessment

2004 AMCI Assessment

Fpa


Assessments Blue whiting Spawning stock BiomassAssessments Blue whiting Spawning stock Biomass

Spawning Stock Biomass estimates Blue whiting

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

year

SSB

2002 assessment

2003 ICA assessment

2003 isvpa assessment

2004 AMCI assessment

Fpa


The State of the three stocksThe State of the three stocks

The three stocks are different with respect The three stocks are different with respect to the robustness of the assessments and the to the robustness of the assessments and the regulation of the fisheries.regulation of the fisheries.

Especially blue whiting is a problem with Especially blue whiting is a problem with respect to the assessments because of the respect to the assessments because of the lack of agreement on allocations and high lack of agreement on allocations and high varialbility in the scientific advicevarialbility in the scientific advice


Which targets should a harvest control rule aim at Which targets should a harvest control rule aim at

Fish stock targets?Fish stock targets? Economic targets? Economic targets? General targets like sustainability? General targets like sustainability? What about the other users of the sea?What about the other users of the sea?


Which targets should a harvest control rule aim at Which targets should a harvest control rule aim at Managing fisheries for sustainable development is a Managing fisheries for sustainable development is a

multi-dimensional and multi-level activity, which multi-dimensional and multi-level activity, which must deal with a wider range of considerations than must deal with a wider range of considerations than survival of the fish stocks and the fisheries alone.. survival of the fish stocks and the fisheries alone.. Changes to fisheries activity should be assessed with Changes to fisheries activity should be assessed with reference to the driving forces of economic and reference to the driving forces of economic and ecological change that bear on both the demand for ecological change that bear on both the demand for and the supply of fish. These external forces will and the supply of fish. These external forces will include competing claims on use and management of include competing claims on use and management of marine ecosystems. FAOmarine ecosystems. FAO


FAO approach FAO approach


An example of economic targets from FAO An example of economic targets from FAO

ObjectiveObjective: Economic efficiency;: Economic efficiency; CriteriaCriteria: Capital productivity; : Capital productivity; IndicatorIndicator: Financial net return/capitalized : Financial net return/capitalized

value; T-TOC-TS/CV; value; T-TOC-TS/CV; ScaleScale:: Fishery, by fleet segment, e.g. Fishery, by fleet segment, e.g.

trawlers.trawlers.


An example of economic targets from FAO IIAn example of economic targets from FAO II

Limit reference pointLimit reference point: capital productivity at : capital productivity at equilibrium as provided by a bio-economic model or equilibrium as provided by a bio-economic model or raw estimates. It is thus assumed that total trawl fleet raw estimates. It is thus assumed that total trawl fleet is calculated on the basis of a defined standard vessel, is calculated on the basis of a defined standard vessel, which implies that the fleet is equivalent to the sum of which implies that the fleet is equivalent to the sum of standard vessels. Total fleet is therefore equivalent to standard vessels. Total fleet is therefore equivalent to that of a single enterprise.that of a single enterprise.

Target reference pointTarget reference point:: is set on the basis of a is set on the basis of a regional development policy in accordance with the regional development policy in accordance with the reference point.reference point.


Economic DataEconomic Data

Information Examples of data Source of data

Capitalized value (CV)

Investment; replacement value of vessel; deprecia-tion rate; inflation index

Banks, administration, Treasury, industry, boat- builders

Turnover (T) Landings; prices Administration, auctions, processors, industry

Total operation costs (TOC)

Fuel consumption; wages; access fees

Administration, industry, insurance companies

Taxes and subsidies (TS)

Value added tax; Taxes on income; fuel subsidies; interest refund

Administration, Treasury, banks


Ecological and economic limits Ecological and economic limits

Economic limits

Ecological limits


The present advisory hierarchy in the North AtlanticThe present advisory hierarchy in the North Atlantic

Fish stocks EcologyFish stocks Ecology

Ecosystems EcologyEcosystems Ecology

Fishing fleets Technical interactionFishing fleets Technical interaction Economy, but not based on science adviceEconomy, but not based on science advice


What does the scientific advice really imply? What does the scientific advice really imply?

Is a harvest control rule a promise of a certain Is a harvest control rule a promise of a certain result i.e. if you maintain your spawning stock result i.e. if you maintain your spawning stock biomass above a certain level you will be biomass above a certain level you will be guaranteed healthy stocks or if you keep your guaranteed healthy stocks or if you keep your fishing mortality inside certain limits you will fishing mortality inside certain limits you will be guaranteed stable and profitable fisheries?be guaranteed stable and profitable fisheries?

The doubt about what ecological based The doubt about what ecological based management plans and HCRs promisemanagement plans and HCRs promise causes causes confidence problems. confidence problems.


The problem: How to measure compliance with the harvest control rule.The problem: How to measure compliance with the harvest control rule.

Statisticians and economists cannot yet make Statisticians and economists cannot yet make accurate forecasts. accurate forecasts. Their guesses occasionally turn Their guesses occasionally turn out to be quite wrong. Nonetheless, people insist out to be quite wrong. Nonetheless, people insist that they do their best. Why? that they do their best. Why? Because lack of any Because lack of any forecast usually itself involves an forecast usually itself involves an implicitimplicit forecast, and non-economists have an even worse forecast, and non-economists have an even worse long-run average score at making a forecast than long-run average score at making a forecast than do trained statistical economists.do trained statistical economists.

P. Samuelson, Economics 1980P. Samuelson, Economics 1980


How to measure compliance with the harvest control rule IIHow to measure compliance with the harvest control rule II

With the dominant reliance on stock With the dominant reliance on stock assessments it is at best possible to make a assessments it is at best possible to make a firm statement that 5-6 years ago we firm statement that 5-6 years ago we adhered to HCRadhered to HCR

That is not what we do. We use the That is not what we do. We use the notorious fickle predictions to establish notorious fickle predictions to establish where we are and determine corrective where we are and determine corrective actions.actions.


Would control of effort do better? Would control of effort do better? It would probably be easier and less demanding It would probably be easier and less demanding

job to monitor fishing effort directlyjob to monitor fishing effort directly However, if fishing effort is calculated as a However, if fishing effort is calculated as a

function of certain vessel characteristics, outcomes function of certain vessel characteristics, outcomes are probably even more uncertain that the are probably even more uncertain that the predictions of stockpredictions of stock

If fishing effort is based on historical fishing If fishing effort is based on historical fishing power –or mortality power – of fleet segments the power –or mortality power – of fleet segments the result may be differentresult may be different


Harvest control rules and integration of fisheries and environmental policiesHarvest control rules and integration of fisheries and environmental policies

Fisheries and their environmental Fisheries and their environmental impact impact (OSPAR)(OSPAR)

Many commercial fish stocks are being exploited Many commercial fish stocks are being exploited beyond their safe biological limit, or are being beyond their safe biological limit, or are being exploited within that limit to an extent that risks exploited within that limit to an extent that risks the limit being breached. By-catch of undersized the limit being breached. By-catch of undersized or unwanted commercial species, mortality of non-or unwanted commercial species, mortality of non-target species, including benthic animals and target species, including benthic animals and marine mammals, and high levels of discards are marine mammals, and high levels of discards are continuing problems in many areas. continuing problems in many areas.


Some final remarksSome final remarks Harvest control rules that secure moderate fishing Harvest control rules that secure moderate fishing

pressures should ensure that ecosystems are not pressures should ensure that ecosystems are not irreversible alteredirreversible altered

Different industry sectors make use of the Ocean. User Different industry sectors make use of the Ocean. User rights are in one way or another allocated to different user rights are in one way or another allocated to different user groups. These uses may conflict with and ruin the groups. These uses may conflict with and ruin the possibilities of other sectorspossibilities of other sectors

Healthy fisheries demand clean oceans and productive and Healthy fisheries demand clean oceans and productive and resilient ecosystemsresilient ecosystems

If property rights or limited access is introduced for one If property rights or limited access is introduced for one user group, but not for others, what are the consequences?user group, but not for others, what are the consequences?

The end The end

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