HARISH .G

KARVY COMTRADE LTD

INTRODUCTION

AGRONOMICAL FEATURES

SEASONALITY

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

PRICE ANALYSIS

ARRIVAL PATTERN

FACTORS TO WATCH OUT

PRICE TARGET

AGENDA

“Queen of Spices” - Ginger family Zingiberaceae

Expensive spice after Vanilla and Saffron

Three typical kinds - Malabar, Mysore and Ceylon

Native of India, Sri Lanka and parts of Southeast Asia

Called as a Versatile Spice - Usage in both sweet and salty foods

Auyervedic medicine preparations

INTRODUCTION

Conditions of the evergreen forests in the Western Ghats.

Canopy of lofty, evergreen forest trees

Highly sensitive to wind and drought

Seasonality

Crop – Perennial

Yield – Starts from second year of planting

Harvesting - August to January

AGRONOMICAL FEATURES AND SEASONALITY

WORLD SCENARIO

World production of cardamom is estimated at 30000 MT

Major producer is Guatemala - An average annual production of 18000 to 20000 MT

India - second largest producer - An average production of 11000 to 12000 MT

Indian cardamom - Superior quality

About 60% of the world production is exported to Arab (South West Asia, North Africa) countries

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Cardamom production in Guatemala

3000

8000

13000

18000

23000

28000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Prod

uctio

n (M

T)

Stagnant production

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Area and Production of Cardamom in India

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

Area

(ha)

1000

3000

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

Prod

uctio

n (to

nnes

)

Area (Hects) Production (Tonnes)

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Cardamom production in India

500

2500

4500

6500

8500

10500

Production (Tonnes)

Production follows 6-7 year cyclical pattern

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Cardamom yield in India

10

60

110

160

210

260

1970

-71

1972

-73

1974

-75

1976

-77

1978

-79

1980

-81

1982

-83

1984

-85

1986

-87

1988

-89

1990

-91

1992

-93

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-01

2002

-03

Yiel

d (k

gs/h

a)

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Area under Cardamom Percentage share 2005-06

56%37%

7%

Kerala Karnataka Tamil Nadu

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Percentage share in cardamom production 2005-06

78%

14%

8%

Kerala Karnataka Tamil Nadu

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Exports of cardamom from India

676

1545

1031

650

875

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

170019

90-9

1

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

Exp

ort q

uant

ity (M

T)

DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Percentage consumption

59%16%

14%

3%3% 5%

West Asia Scandinavia Other EU Countries USA Japan Others

PRICE ANALYSIS

Annual auction prices of Cardamom (small) - Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970

-71

1972

-73

1974

-75

1976

-77

1978

-79

1980

-81

1982

-83

1984

-85

1986

-87

1988

-89

1990

-91

1992

-93

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-01

2002

-03

2004

-05

Pric

e (R

s/kg

)

PRICE ANALYSIS

Monthly average prices of Cardamom - Kerala

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Pric

e/K

g

2004-05

PRICE ANALYSIS

Annual average prices of cardamom (small) in Middle East

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

Pri

ce (U

S$/

kg)

India Guatemala

ARRIVAL PATTERN

Harvesting (Picking) pattern in cardamom

Arrivals mainly depends on percentage of picking in the growing regions

August to September – 25% to 30%

September to October – 30% to 35%

October to November – 20% to 25%

December to January – 10%

WORD OF MOUTH

Factors supporting the price rally

This year there is a gap of around 40 to 45 days in harvesting due to dropping (because of rain and wind)

Production is estimated to be lower by 17% this season

Increasing export orders from West Asia

Spurt in domestic demand due to upcoming festivals

Poor quality crop in Guatemala which is the major competitor for Indian cardamom in overseas market.

Daily QMOMc2 [Bar, EMA 10, EMA 20, EMA 50]5/23/2006 - 10/9/2006 (GMT)[Professional]

27 02 08 14 20 26 01 07 13 19 25 31 05 11 18 24 30 05 11 16 22 28 05May 06 Jun 06 Jul 06 Aug 06 Sep 06

PriceINRKg

260

280

320

340

360

380

420

440

460

480

520

540

560

580

620

640

300

400

500

600

QMOMc2, Last Trade, Bar10/5/2006 486.00 499.50 469.50 478.00QMOMc2, Close(Last Trade), EMA 1010/5/2006 543.74QMOMc2, Close(Last Trade), EMA 2010/5/2006 548.60QMOMc2, Close(Last Trade), EMA 5010/5/2006 488.84

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Short termThe bearish trend would continue in the short term as it has broken the 50% retracement (support) of 260-667 move. The next support is seen around 400-420 levels.

Medium termPrices are expected to take support around 400 levels and fresh buying can be seen which may push the prices towards t 520-550 then 650 levels.

PRICE TARGET

FACTORS TO BE TAKEN CARE OF…

If rain occurs during October and November in KERALA we can see fall in the prices as rain will boost the production of cardamom.

THANK YOU