Hard Choices Ahead - What UEA is doing. 面临的选择 -UEA 如何做

CRedcarbon reduction

Hard Choices Ahead - What UEA is doing.面临的选择 -UEA 如何做

Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Global Warming: 全球变暖：

29th June 2007 （ 2007年 6月 29日）Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

CRed

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region

– Nasa satellite imagery

Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

24 年内减少了 20% 19792003

CRed

夏天的北极区域冰盖—Nasa （美国国家航天局）卫星照片

20% reduction in 24 years

气候变化：北极冰盖融化 1979-2003

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

Comparison of emissions of different countries

不同国家的排放比较

Raising Awareness 知识提升

Electricity Generation in China is dominated by coal

Carbon Emission factor 0.870 kg/kWh

cf 0.52 kg/kWh in UK

中国主要使用煤炭进行发电

碳排放数据 0.870 kg/kWh

在英国这一数据是 0.52kg/kWh

(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)

Norwich 诺威奇

Consequence of ~ 1m rise

1 米的海平面升高

Consequence of ~ 6m rise

6 米的海平面升高

Norwich City would be playing water polo!

在诺威奇市将可以打水球了！

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

2020 年内发电选择—非可再生能源

Gas CCGT天然气0 - 80% (currently 35%

)(目前是35%)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade目前可行，英国将在10年内用完天然气

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure much

higher目前趋势还将增加

potential contribution in 2020潜在的电力供应

costs in 2020成本

Wholesale Price of Electricity since NETA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Bas

eloa

d P

rice

s (£

/MW

h)

first 5 years

last 12 months



Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently

35% )

available now, but UK gas will run out within 10-15 years

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

potential contribution in 2020

costs in 2020

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

核裂变（长期）0 - 60% (法国 80%) -

(目前20-50%并在增加)

新型安全设计-需要一些实践

2.5 - 3.5p



Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently

35% )

available now, but UK gas will run out within 10-15 years

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

potential contribution in 2020

costs in 2020

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal 40 -

50%

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

核聚变不可行至少在2040年前不可行

清洁煤煤能提供40-50%的能源

目前还可使用-没有碳收集技术不可行

2.5 - 3.5p

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km

But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.


10+ p

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.


10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project 太阳能 - BroadSol 项目

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh 年太阳能产生 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

2004年 1月 27 日安装

Our Choices: They are difficult 选择 - 比较困难Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

我们是否需要选择适合的可再生能源，如内陆 / 海岸风力电厂和生物能源。但太阳能发电、潮汐能、波涛能在以后 20 年将不会被选择。

如果我们的答案是否定的

我们需要更新核能吗？ •我们满意这种选择或是其他风险？

Our Choices: They are difficult 选择 - 比较困难

如果答案是：否我们是否从新使用煤炭？• 那么二氧化碳排放将会增加• 除非我们发展碳捕获技术并在 10 年内运用到我们所有的火电站

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely.

如果答案是：否我们是否需要放弃尝试，继续开采天然气用于加热和发电？

Our Choices: They are difficult 选择 - 比较困难

If our answer is YES

By 2020

• In UK we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• China is also looking towards Russia for supplies of GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

如果答案是：是

到 2020 年•英国 70% 的供热和发电将会来自于天然气 •中国也将会从俄罗斯进口天然气•从俄罗斯、伊朗、伊拉克、利比亚、阿尔及利亚进口

我们满意这样做吗？

Our Choices: They are difficult 选择 - 比较困难If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –

Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead the UK down the GAS option

route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. In China it will be coal and the issues of Global Warming.

如果不满意我们需要减少能源消耗

– 或者我们使用煤炭，造成全球变暖并牺牲我们的将来？ - 如使用北 Norfolk 、 Aylsham Colliery 、北 Walsham 煤田？

我们需要考虑可再生能源吗？如果不行动或拖延，都将使英国的能源安全问题增加，对于中国来说则是煤炭使用和全球变问题。

5 hot air balloons per person per year. 相当于每人排放 5 个热气球

In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person 在发展中国家，这一水平低于 1 个热气球

Is this Fair? 这公平吗？

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

每一个英国人每年排放 9吨CO2

“Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little.” ‘ 没有人犯的错误比他不做任何事更大，因为他认为他的行动微不足道

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Raising Awareness 知识提升• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.

Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 克二氧化碳相当于一个派队气球

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• 烘干机使用 4 倍于洗衣机的能源。一星期使用 5 次将 1 年耗费 £100仅仅只是烘干并排放出半吨 CO2

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

Raising Awareness 知识提升

• Standby on electrical appliances 40+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.

• A Mobile Phone charger: up to 10 kWh per year

~ 500 balloons each year. 5 kg CO2

• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles 英里

• 电器待机40+ kWh 每年 - 4000 气球 .

• 手机充电器：每年用 10 kWh ~ 500 个派队气球： 5 kg CO2

• 给汽车使用汽油 (~£38 一箱油 – 40 升 --------- 90 kg CO2 (5% 个热气球 )

一辆家庭轿车（如 1400 cc 丰田车）开多远排放的二氧化碳与加热一个老人的房间 1小时所排放的一样？

2.6 km 公里

The ZICER Building –ZICER 楼

Main part of the building

• High in thermal mass • Air tight• High insulation standards • Triple glazing with low emissivity ~ equivalent to quintuple glazing

Won the Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005

建筑主要特点

•高性能集热•高密封性•高隔热标准•三层玻璃有效防止热散失（隔热）

2005 年荣获年度低耗能建筑奖

• Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays

• Poly- crystalline on façade ~ 6/7 kW in 3 arrays

ZICER Building ZICER楼

• 在屋顶的 M级太阳能电池 ~ 27 kW 10列• 在墙面的 P级太阳能电池 ~ 6/7 kW 3列

Use of PV generated energy 太阳能电池板

Sometimes electricity is exported 有时输出电力Inverters are only 91% efficient 变流器效率 91%

Most use is for computers 主要用于电脑

DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient 直流变流器效率只有 60%

Need an integrated approach 需要一个统一的规划

Peak output is 34 kW 峰值 34 kW

Air enters the internal occupied space 空气进入内部使用空间

Return stale air is extracted from each floor 从每层出来的回流空气

Incoming air into the AHU

空气输入

Regenerative heat exchanger

能再次产热的热交换器Filter

过滤器Heater加热器

The air passes through hollow

cores in the ceiling slabs 空气通过空心

的板层

The return air passes through the heat exchanger

空气回流进入热交换器

Out of the building

出建筑物

Operation of the Main Building建筑的使用

• Mechanically ventilated that utilizes hollow core ceiling slabs as supply air ducts to the space 机械式通风采用空心板材，能让空气通过管道进入建筑内

发电机发生器

36% 电量

50% 热

天然气

热交换器

Exhaust Heat

Exchanger

11% Flue Losses3% 热辐射损失

86%

效率

Localised generation makes use of waste heat.

本地化发电可利用废热

Reduces conversion losses significantly

减少转化损失

Conversion efficiency improvements – Building Scale CHP

改善转化效率—热电联产的运用（ CHP)

61% 管道损失

36%

Conversion efficiency improvements 转化效率改善

1997/98 Electricity Gas Oil Total

MWh 19895 35148 33

Emission factor

kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277

Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699

Before installation 安装之前

1997/98 电量天然气油合计MWh 19895 35148 33

排放因子 kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277

二氧化碳 Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699

安装之前

Conversion efficiency improvements 转化效率改善

Electricity Heat1999/2000

CHP 合计

产生输出输入锅炉 CHP 油合计

MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923排放因子 kg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277

二氧化碳 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422

Before installation:15699 tonnes 安装之前： 15699 吨

After installation

This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide

这代表了 33% 的二氧化碳减少

Electricity Heat

1999/2000

Total site

CHP generation

Export Import Boilers CHP Oil Total

MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923

Emission factor

kg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277

CO2 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422

After installation

Disposal of waste heat in summer? 在夏天如何处置废热？

More electricity could be generated 产生更多电力

CHP – A Problem?? CHP- 问题？

A typical Air conditioning/Refrigeration Unit

一个典型的空调 /制冷单元

节流阀Throttle Valve

冷凝器

绝热

Condenser

Heat rejected

蒸发器

为冷却进行热提取

Evaporator

Heat extracted for cooling

高温高压

High TemperatureHigh Pressure

低温低压

Low TemperatureLow Pressure

Compressor

压缩器

Absorption Heat Pump

Adsorption Heat pump reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated

吸收热泵可减少电力需求并增加发电量

吸收热泵

节流阀Throttle Valve

冷凝器

绝热

Condenser

Heat rejected

蒸发器

为冷却进行热提取

Evaporator

Heat extracted for cooling

高温高压

High TemperatureHigh Pressure

低温低压

Low TemperatureLow Pressure

外部热

Heat from external source

W ~ 0

吸收器

吸收器

热交换器

Absorber

Desorber

Heat Exchanger

A 1 MW Adsorption chiller

1 MW 吸附冷却器

• Reduces electricity demand in summer

• Increases electricity generated locally

• Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually

• Uses Waste Heat from CHP

• provides most of chilling requirements in summer

•从 CHP 中使用废热•在夏天提供绝大部分供冷需要

•减少夏天电耗•增加本地发电量•每年节约 ~500 吨二氧化碳

Conclusions• Global Warming and Energy Security issues will affect us all - in

next few decades.• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of

energy and small changes to behaviour. It is as much about the individual’s response to use of

energy as any technical measures Governments may take.• Sensible integrated design of buildings, incorporating innovative

use of renewable energy are also important.

• 全球变暖和能源安全将在今后几十年影响我们• 节约能源、在本地发电以及改变我们的行为

每个人可以做很多事情针对能源的使用，政府也可采取技术措施。

• 统一协调地对建筑进行设计，创新地使用可再生能源也很重要。

And Finally

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

束语老子（ 604-531BC ）中国古代思想家、哲学家

（直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”

Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington

每一个辆家庭轿车每开 50米就排放 10 克二氧化碳

Hard Choices Ahead - What UEA is doing. 面临的选择 -UEA 如何做

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