Hans P. L’Orange Director, SHEEO/NCES Network and Director of Data and Information Management
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Hans P. L’OrangeDirector, SHEEO/NCES Network andDirector of Data and Information Management
David L. WrightSenior Research Analyst
AIR National ForumAIR National ForumSan Diego, CaliforniaSan Diego, California
May 30, 2005May 30, 2005
SState tate HHigher igher
EEducation ducation FFinanceinance
FY 2004FY 2004
SState tate HHigher igher
EEducation ducation FFinanceinance
FY 2004FY 2004
State Higher Education Executive Officers
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Making Sense of Interstate Higher Education Finance Data
SHEF can help educators and policy makers:SHEF can help educators and policy makers:
Understand the extent to which state resources for colleges and universities have kept pace with enrollment and cost increases;
Examine and compare how state higher education spending is allocated for different purposes;
Assess trends in how much students are paying for higher education;
Gain a perspective on the funding of their state’s higher education system in the context of other states; and
Assess the capacity of their state economy to generate revenues to support public priorities.
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Diverse Perspectives on State Higher Education Finance Data
What SHEF contributes to the national What SHEF contributes to the national conversation:conversation: Annual, ongoing; continuous time series from FY 1980 forward;
Captures state tax and non-tax support (lottery revenue, lease income, earnings on state endowments);
Adds revenue from local government and student sources; and
Interstate comparisons “as valid as possible.”
Accounts for inflation and enrollment growth;
Sets aside special purpose appropriations for research, agriculture, and medicine; and
Adjusts interstate comparisons for differences in state cost of living and public system enrollment mix.
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Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA):Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA):
Attempts to reflect provider “market basket” without being self-referent.
Components federally maintained and routinely updated; transparent, accessible.
Serves as a benchmark rather than descriptive measure of higher education cost inflation.
75% of the index is based on Employment Cost Index for white-collar workers (BLS).
25% based on GDP Implicit Price Deflator (BEA).
reflects general price inflation in total U.S. economy
current $ GDP / constant $ GDP
“As Valid As Possible”
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Enrollment Mix Index (EMI):Enrollment Mix Index (EMI):
Average instructional expenses per student vary by institution type.
“As Valid As Possible”
Enrollments are distributed differently across states’ public HE systems.
The EMI adjusts operating revenues to account for both factors.
Average Instructional Expenses per FTE, Fiscal 2001
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State Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA):State Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA):
Driven primarily by housing costs.
Adopted index developed by Berry et al (2000).
One value per state, ranging from 0.88 to 1.16.
Hawaii and Alaska assigned value of the next highest state (Massachusetts)
“As Valid As Possible”
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State Cost of Living and Public Higher Education System Enrollment Mix Index Values
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Dollars per FTE are adjusted upward the most in states with an inexpensive enrollment mix and low cost of living.
The reverse is true for states with a more expensive enrollment mix and high cost of living.
In some states, the two factors cancel each other.
“As Valid As Possible”
US
WY
WI
WV
WA
VA
VT
UT
TX
TN
SD
SC
RI
PA
OROK
OH
NDNC
NY
NM
NJ
NH
NV
NEMT
MO
MS
MN
MI
MA
MDME
LA KY
KSIA
IN
IL
IDHI
GA
FL
DE
CT
CO
CA
AR
AZ
AK
AL
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20
State Cost of Living Index (US Avg = 1.0)
En
roll
men
t M
ix I
nd
ex (
US
Avg
= 1
.0)
COST OF LIVING: below avgCOST OF PUBLIC H.E. SYSTEM ENROLLMENT MIX: above avg
COST OF LIVING: above avgCOST OF PUBLIC H.E. SYSTEM ENROLLMENT MIX: above avg
COST OF LIVING: below avgCOST OF PUBLIC H.E. SYSTEM ENROLLMENT MIX: below avg
COST OF LIVING: above avgCOST OF PUBLIC H.E. SYSTEM ENROLLMENT MIX: below avg
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6.7%
31.2%62.1%
Current Status
Distribution of State, Local, and Net Tuition Revenue, U.S.Fiscal 2004
Net Tuition
Local Taxes
State Support
(Tax and Non-Tax)
Source: SHEEO SHEF
State and local governments provided $69.4 billion for public and independent higher education in 2004.
An additional $31.5 billion in net tuition revenue brought the amount available from state, local, and student sources for general operating expenses to $100.9 billion.
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From fiscal 2001 to 2004:From fiscal 2001 to 2004:
“The fiscal 2004 SHEF study documents a 4-year period when state funding for higher education failed to keep pace with normal inflation and extraordinary enrollment growth in the U.S., leaving per student state & local funding near their lowest levels nationally in 25 years.”
Recent Trends
State & local appropriations for general educational expenses in public colleges and universities were essentially flat, while:
enrollments grew by 11.8% and
higher education costs grew by 10.3% as estimated by HECA.
In inflation-adjusted terms,
Educational appropriations per FTE decreased 16.8%, from $6,874 to $5,721;
Net tuition revenue per FTE increased 10.7%, from $2,879 to $3,187; and
Total educational revenues per FTE decreased 8.7%, from $9,753 to $8,908.
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$6,094
$5,721$5,702
$6,874
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Pu
bli
c F
TE
En
roll
men
t
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
Ed
uca
tio
nal
Ap
pro
pri
atio
ns
per
FT
E
5M
6M
7M
8M
9M
10M = Recession
National Trends since 1980
FTE enrollment in public institutions has grown by more than 40% since 1980.
Enrollment growth since 2001 has already outstripped that of each of the previous two decades.
+ 11.8%
+ 6.2%
+ 8.5%
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Educational Appropriations per FTE, U.S.,Fiscal 1980-2004, Constant 2004 Dollars Adjusted by SHEEO
HECA
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$6,094
$5,721$5,702
$6,874
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Pu
bli
c F
TE
En
roll
men
t
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
Ed
uca
tio
nal
Ap
pro
pri
atio
ns
per
FT
E
5M
6M
7M
8M
9M
10M = Recession
Over the long term, state and local government funding per student has been narrowly outpaced by enrollment and inflation as estimated by the HECA, decreasing on average one-fourth of one percent annually.
The level of support has varied from year to year, at times dramatically.
National Trends since 1980
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Educational Appropriations per FTE, U.S.,Fiscal 1980-2004, Constant 2004 Dollars Adjusted by SHEEO
HECA
Economic downturns tend to depress state funding per student because budgets are constrained while enrollment grows rapidly.
In the past, state support per FTE has rebounded following a downturn.
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National Trends since 1980
The Rockefeller Institute reports that state tax revenue in the 4th quarter of 2004 grew 7.8% compared to the same period in 2003 (the strongest fourth-quarter growth since 1991), but warns of continuing cost pressures in Medicaid, elementary & secondary education, and other areas.
According to Grapevine, state tax appropriations for higher education, unadjusted for enrollment or inflation, were down 2.1% in fiscal 2004 (the first such nominal decrease in 11 years) but up 3.8% in 2005.
A SHEEO early look at FY 2006 state tax appropriations for higher education in 30 states indicated that 25 anticipated increases; only one expected a decrease.
Signs that things may be turning around:Signs that things may be turning around:
Will it be enough to offset enrollment growth and inflation?Will it be enough to offset enrollment growth and inflation?
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$6,094
$5,721$5,702
$6,874
Pu
bli
c F
TE
En
roll
men
t
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
Ed
uca
tio
nal
Ap
pro
pri
atio
ns
per
FT
E
5M
6M
7M
8M
9M
10M = Recession
Educational Appropriations per FTE, U.S.,Fiscal 1980-2004, Constant 2004 Dollars Adjusted by SHEEO
HECA
The choice of baseline year is fundamental to any analysis of long-term funding trends.
Choosing a “peak” or “valley” would lead to dramatically different conclusions about trends in revenues per student.
National Trends since 1980
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Baseline year chosen for remaining analyses
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Net Tuition as a Percentage of Total Educational Revenues, U.S., Fiscal 1991-2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
In public institutions, net tuition tends to grow as a percentage of total revenues when the state appropriation per student decreases in economic downturns.
Nationally, net tuition accounted for 26% of total educational revenues in 1991; remained fairly constant at about 30% from 1993 to 2002, then increased each of the last two years to its current level of 36%.
National Trends from 1991-2004
26.2%
30.9% 31.4% 31.2% 31.7% 31.2% 30.7% 30.2%29.4% 29.5%
30.3%
33.1%
35.8%
28.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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Total Educational Revenues per FTE, by Component, U.S., Fiscal 1991-2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
In constant 2004 dollars adjusted by the HECA, educational appropriations per FTE in public institutions dipped during the early 1990s recession but had recovered by the end of that decade.
However, recent constant dollar decreases in educational appropriations result in a net decrease of 12% for the period, from $6,499 in 1991 to $5,721 in 2004.
National Trends from 1991-2004
Figure 2Total Educational Revenues per FTE by Component, U.S., Fiscal 1991-2004
(Constant 2004 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment)
6,4996,126 5,917 5,985 6,185 6,258 6,451 6,648 6,815 6,854 6,874 6,639
6,0765,721
2,487 2,646 2,7342,808 2,907
2,9302,944
2,948 2,858 2,8792,892
3,0033,187
2,307
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Net TuitionEducational Appropriations $8,908$8,805
$9,753
In the post-recession periods of the early 1990s and early 2000s, increases in net tuition per student have been unable to offset decreasing levels of state & local government support.
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Full-Time Equivalent Enrollment, Percent Change by State, Fiscal 1991-2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Enrollments in public institutions increased 21.8% from 1991 to 2004. Over half of this increase occurred since 2001, the beginning of the current downturn.
Changes in enrollment ranged from an 86.9% increase in Nevada to a decline of 8.5% in Missouri.
Interstate Comparisons from 1991-2004
Figure 5Full-Time Equivalent Enrollment in Public Higher Education,
Percent Change by State, Fiscal 1991-2004
-8.5%
86.9%
21.8%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
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Educational Appropriations per FTE, Percent Change by State, Fiscal 1991-2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
In constant dollars, educational appropriations per FTE in public institutions declined by an average of 12% from 1991 to 2004.
The change in educational appropriations ranged from 27.3% growth in Georgia to a decrease of 42.2% in Vermont.
Interstate Comparisons from 1991-2004
-12.0%
-42.2%
27.3%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
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Net Tuition Revenue per FTE, Percent Change by State, Fiscal 1991-2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
In constant dollars, net tuition per FTE increased by an average of 38.2% from 1991 to 2004, and all but six states experienced increases.
Decreases in net tuition revenue may be associated with institutional discounting, increases in the state financial aid program, or student migration to lower-cost institutions.
Interstate Comparisons from 1991-2004
132.5%
-30.4%
38.2%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
95%
105%
115%
125%
135%
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Net Tuition as a Percentage of Total Educational Revenues, by State, Fiscal 2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
The average share of educational revenues represented by net tuition in 2004 was 35.8%, ranging from a high of 79% in Vermont to a low of 16% in Georgia.
New England and Midwestern states tended to exceed the national average on this measure, and Western states were beneath it.
Interstate Comparisons from 1991-2004
15.5%
78.7%
35.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
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Net Tuition Increase Needed to Offset a 1% Decrease in State Government Support for Public Higher Education, by State, Fiscal
2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Notes: State dollars include Research-Ag-Med. Net tuition revenues are from all levels (undergraduate, graduate, first professional) except medical schools.
A state’s vulnerability to state appropriation decreases is largely determined by its reliance on tuition as a revenue stream.
Based on 2004 SHEF data, net tuition revenues would have had to increase 1.9% on average to offset a one percent decrease in state support.
Interstate Comparisons from 1991-2004
Figure_ Net Tuition Increase Needed to Offset a One Percent Decrease in State Government Support
for Public Higher Education, by State, Fiscal 2004
1.9%
5.8%
0.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
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Total Educational Revenues per FTE, Percent Change by State, Fiscal 1991-2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
When aggregated nationally, increases in net tuition revenue offset decreases in state appropriations to yield an average 1.2% increase in total educational funding per FTE.
Individual state circumstances, however, varied substantially around that mean.
Interstate Comparisons from 1991-2004
1.2%
-25.9%
37.1%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
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Percent Change by State in Enrollment and in Educational Appropriations per FTE, Fiscal 1991-2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Plotting the SHEF data along two dimensions can bring state fiscal policy findings and trends into sharper relief.
Here, data points on the vertical axis represent public higher education enrollment growth from 1991-2004. The horizontal axis shows each state’s percent change in educational appropriations per student over the same period.
Putting the Pieces Together
Of the 27 states with above average enrollment growth from 1991 to 2004, only three – Louisiana, Kentucky, and Nevada – increased educational appropriations per student on a constant dollar basis for the period.
Figure 8Percent Change by State in Enrollment and in Educational Appropriations per FTE,
Fiscal 1991-2004
ALAK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CTDE
FL
GAHI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MIMN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJNM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VTVA
WA
WVWI
WY
US
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
-45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Percent Change in Educational Appropriations per FTE
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
in P
ub
lic H
igh
er E
d E
nro
llmen
t
APPROPS CHANGE: below avgFTE CHANGE: above avg
APPROPS CHANGE: above avgFTE CHANGE: above avg
APPROPS CHANGE: below avgFTE CHANGE: below avg
APPROPS CHANGE: above avgFTE CHANGE: below avg
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Total Educational Revenues per FTE by State: Percent Change and Current Standing Relative to U.S.
Average
Source: SHEEO SHEF
The next two-dimensional analysis allows states to assess total educational revenues per FTE relative to the national average currently (on the horizontal axis) and over time (on the vertical).
The six states in the upper left quadrant lag the U.S. average but have been catching up. The six in the lower right quadrant exceed the national average but are losing ground.
Putting the Pieces Together
Total Educational Revenues per FTE by State:Percent Change and Current Standing Relative to U.S. Average
AL
AK
AZ
ARCA
CO
CT
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KSKY
LA
ME
MD
MAMI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD TNTX
UT
VTVA
WA
WV
WI
WY
US
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
Indexed to the U.S. Average in FY 2004
Per
cen
t C
han
ge,
FY
199
1 -
2004
% CHANGE: above avgCURRENT: below avg
% CHANGE: below avgCURRENT: below avg
% CHANGE: below avgCURRENT: above avg
% CHANGE: above avgCURRENT: above avg
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Percent Change by State in Educational Appropriationsand Net Tuition Revenues per FTE, Fiscal 1991-2004
Source: SHEEO SHEF
Putting the Pieces Together
This figure shows each state’s rate of change in the two components of total educational revenues per student – educational appropriations and net tuition – relative to the national average.
States in the upper right quadrant have exceeded the national average on both dimensions.
US
WY
WI
WV
WA
VA
VT UT
TXTN
SD
SC
RI
PA
OR
OK
OH
ND
NC
NY
NM
NJ
NH
NV
NE
MT
MO
MS
MN
MI
MA
MD
ME
LA
KY
KS
IA IN
IL
ID
HI
GA
FL
DE
CT
CO
CA
ARAZ
AK
AL
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
-45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Percent Change in Educational Appropriations per FTE
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
in N
et T
uit
ion
Rev
enu
e p
er F
TE
APPROPS % CHANGE: below avgNET TUIT % CHANGE: above avg
APPROPS % CHANGE: above avgNET TUIT % CHANGE: above avg
APPROPS % CHANGE: below avgNET TUIT % CHANGE: below avg
APPROPS % CHANGE: above avgNET TUIT % CHANGE: below avg
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Net Tuition Revenue per FTE and Total State Student Grant Aid per FTE, Fiscal 2004
Sources: SHEEO SHEF
States that rely heavily on net tuition revenues might also try to fund a balanced state financial aid program.
In this figure, the horizontal axis shows FY04 net tuition revenue per FTE for each state. The vertical axis shows FY04 state-funded financial aid per FTE. States in the upper right quadrant exceed the U.S. average on both.
Putting the Pieces Together
US
WY
WI
WVWA
VA
VT
UT TX
TN
SDSC RI
PA
OR
OK OH
ND
NC
NY
NM
NJ
NHNV NE MT
MO
MS
MN
MI
MA
MD
ME
LA
KY
KS
IA
IN
IL
ID
HI
GA
FL
DE
CT
CO
CA
ARAZ
AK
AL
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000
Fiscal 2004 Net Tuition Revenue per FTE
Fis
cal 2
004
Tuit
ion
Aid
per
FT
E
TUITION AID: above avgNET TUITION: below avg
TUITION AID: below avgNET TUITION: below avg
TUITION AID: below avgNET TUITION: above avg
TUITION AID: above avgNET TUITION: above avg
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Net Tuition Revenue per FTE and Total State Student Grant Aid per FTE, Fiscal 2004
Sources: SHEEO SHEF and NASSGAP
According to NASSGAP, 72.9% of all state grant aid dollars were awarded on the basis of student financial need in 2002-03.
The 29 states displayed in green exceeded the U.S. average on this measure.
Putting the Pieces Together
AL
AKAZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IAKS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MTNENV NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OHOK
OR
PA
RISC SD
TN
TXUTVT
VA
WA WV
WI
WY
US
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000
Fiscal 2004 Net Tuition Revenue per FTE
Fis
cal 2
004
Tuit
ion
Aid
per
FT
E
TUITION AID: above avgNET TUITION: below avg
TUITION AID: below avgNET TUITION: below avg
TUITION AID: below avgNET TUITION: above avg
TUITION AID: above avgNET TUITION: above avg
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Perspectives on Taxes and State Support of Higher Education
Taxable Resources and Effective Tax Rate Indexed to the U.S. Average,
by State, Fiscal 2002
Source: SHEEO SHEF
States whose effective tax rate exceeds the national average are plotted above the horizontal axis, and states with above average wealth (total taxable resources per capita) are plotted to the right of the vertical line.
US WY
WIWV
WA
VA
VT
UT
TX
TNSD
SC
RI
PA
OR
OKOH
ND
NC
NY
NM
NJ
NH
NV
NEMT
MO
MSMN
MI
MA
MD
ME
LA
KY
KSIAIN
ILID
HI
GAFL
DE
CT
CO
CAAR
AZ
AK
AL
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
Total Taxable Resources Index (US Avg = 1.0)
Eff
ecti
ve T
ax R
ate
Ind
ex (
US
Avg
= 1
.0)
STATE WEALTH: below avgEFFECTIVE TAX RATE: above avg
STATE WEALTH: above avgEFFECTIVE TAX RATE: above avg
STATE WEALTH: below avgEFFECTIVE TAX RATE: below avg
STATE WEALTH: above avgEFFECTIVE TAX RATE: below avg
Shaded states have actual tax revenues per capita within +/-10% of the national average.
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In making funding decisions, a state must In making funding decisions, a state must answer the following key questions:answer the following key questions:
What kind of higher education system do we want?
What will it take, given our circumstances, to obtain and sustain such a system?
Are we making effective use of our current investments?
What can we afford to invest in order to meet our goals?
Conclusion
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REPORTS & PRESENTATIONS:www.sheeo.org
DATA:www.higheredinfo.org
CONTACT:[email protected]
David Wright,Senior Research Analyst
(303) 299-3677