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Monthly Movements in the New Claimant Counts (CC)

Monitoring the local labour market

and business news

The Hampshire

Labour Market Bulletin

October 2016

CC Number

Up by 25 to 10,455

CC Rate

Unchanged at 0.9%

CC 16-24 Number

Up by 120 To 2,290

CC 16-24 Rate

Up by 0.1ppts To 1.1%

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Oct-16

Hampshire Economic Area Unemployed Benefit Claimant Count Number and Working Age Rates (% 16-64yrs): 1989-2016

rece

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Number Working Age Working Age %

Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) October 2016 Headlines

Nationally, and using the Government’s preferred ILO estimates, the employment rate is 74.5% for the three months to September 2016, the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971. The unemployment rate is 4.8%. Locally, the nearest equivalent HEA employment rate is 77.7% for the 12 months to June 2016, while the unemployment rate is 4.5%. The more current, but narrower monthly claimant count in the HEA is up by 25 claimants to stand at 10,455 for October 2016. The rate is unchanged at 0.9%.

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National (ILO) Dashboard (3 mths to September 2016 and change on previous quarter)

Employment Number

31.80 million (+49,000)

Unemployment Number

1.60 million (-37,000)

Economic Inactivity Number

8.89 million (+49,000)

16-24 Unemployment Number

591,000 (-36,000)

Employment Rate

74.5% (Unchanged)

Unemployment Rate

4.8% (Unchanged-0.1ppts

Economic Inactivity Rate

21.7% (+0.1ppt)

16-24 Unemployment Rate

13.1% (-0.5ppt)

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79.275.3 78.2 77.7

73.7 73.9 74.0 74.1 74.1 74.1 74.2 74.2 74.4 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5

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100.0

% e

mpl

oyed

(16+

)

Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK ILO Rates and Nearest Equivalent for the HEA

4.1 4.04.4 4.5

5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8

0.0

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% u

nem

ploy

ed (1

6+)

Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Unemployment Rate Comparison

The Government’s preferred ILO definition from the ONS Labour Force Survey is not published below the regional level. For a local comparison that provides the nearest equivalent statistic there is the Annual Population Survey. This is published quarterly covering a 12 month period. The dates in the charts refer to the LFS period not the APS.

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Employment Rate Comparison

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Employment

Number Employment numbers increased on the quarter by 49,000 to reach 31.80 million. Annually,

employment is up by 461,000.

Rate The UK employment rate is 74.5% for the three months to September 2016, and the highest since

comparable records began in 1971. This is unchanged on the quarter, while the annual rate is up by 0.7 of a percentage point. For a local comparison, the nearest equivalent employment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 77.7% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 79.5% for the Hampshire County Council area.

Status Full-time employment increased on the quarter by 26,000 to 23.24 million, while Part-time

employment is up by 24,000 on the quarter to 8.56 million. The number of employees is up by 63,000 on the quarter to 26.82 million, while self-employment decreased by 3,000 to 4.79 million. The number of unpaid family workers is up by 8,000 to 125,000, while the number on government supported training employment programmes is down by 18,000 to 65,000.

Pay and Inflation (Average Weekly Earnings and Consumer Price Index)

• Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.3% including bonuses and by 2.4% excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% in the year to October 2016, compared with a 1.0% rise in the year to September. Although the rate was slightly lower than in September 2016, it remained higher than the rates otherwise seen since late 2014.

ILO unemployment (Government's preferred measure from the LFS Survey

Number National ILO unemployment numbers are down by 37,000 on the quarter to 1.60 million for the three

months to September 2016. On the year the number is down by 146,000.

Rate The national unemployment rate is 4.8%, and down by 0.1 of a percentage point on the quarter. The

rate is down by 0.5 of a percentage point on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO unemployment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 4.5% compared to 3.6% in the Hampshire County Council area.

Youth Unemployment Number and Rate

Nationally, the number of 16 to 24 year olds out of work is down by 36,000 on the quarter to 591,000. The rate for 16-24yrs is 13.1% and down by 0.5 of a percentage point. Locally, the nearest equivalent 16-24yrs unemployment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 11.5% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 10.5% for the Hampshire County area.

Economic Inactivity

The UK working age economic inactivity rate stands at 21.7%, and is 0.1 of a percentage point higher on the quarter. The number of economically inactive people is up by 49,000 on the quarter to 8.89 million, but is down by 103,000 on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 19.0% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 17.12% for the Hampshire County Council area.

National Commentary

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Nearest Equivalent Local ILO Labour Market Statistics (next update January 2017)

Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO employment rate in the Hampshire Economic Area is 77.7% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 79.5% in the Hampshire County area.

The HEA ILO unemployment rate is 4.5% compared to 3.6% in the Hampshire County Council area. The nearest equivalent unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds in the Hampshire Economic Area is 11.5% for the 12 months to June 2016, and 10.5% for the Hampshire County Council area.

The nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 19.0% for the

12 months to June 2016, and 17.2% for the Hampshire County Council area.

New Claimant Count Number and Rates

Under the new unemployed Claimant Count measure (JSA + UC),the number of claimants for October 2016 is 10,455. This represents an increase of 25 claimants on September 2016, and 65 additional claimants compared to October 2015.

The unemployed claimant count rate is unchanged at 0.9% and unchanged on the year. The South East rate is unchanged at 1.1%, while the UK rate is unchanged at 1.9%. As such, the Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) rate is one percentage point lower than the UK rate.

Five of the 14 HEA and Isle of Wight local authority districts saw a monthly decrease in unemployment benefit claimants, ranging from five fewer claimants in Rushmoor to 40 fewer claimants in Southampton. Seven authorities saw a monthly increase, ranging from five additional claimants in Winchester to 70 on the Isle of Wight. East Hampshire and Gosport reported no monthly change.

New Claimant Count Number by Gender

Male unemployed benefit claimant numbers for October 2016 are up by 50 on September 2016 to 6,610. Female numbers are down by 30 to 3,845 claimants. Annual unemployment benefit claimant numbers for males are up on the year (October 2015) by 85 while female numbers are down by 25.

New Claimant Count Youth Unemployment

The level of 16-24 year olds on unemployment benefit increased on the month by 120 to 2,290. The rate is up by 0.1 of a percentage point to 1.1%.

DWP Worklessness May 2016 (next update is Feb 2017 for Aug 2016 statistics)

The Hampshire Economic Area worklessness number stood at 70,600 for May 2016, a decrease of 2,470 on May 2015. The worklessness rate is 6.2%, and down by 0.2 of a percentage point on the year. This compares to the national rate of 8.7%. The annual decrease in worklessness claimants is mostly be attributed to 1,850 fewer JSA claimants. While Lone Parent and Other income benefits are each down by approximately 500 claimants, ESA/IB claimants rose by 500 on the year to 50,900.

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) Year 12 and 13 cohort (16-17yr olds)

The new Actual NEET figure for September 2016 is 1.0%. Please note this is a change to the previous adjusted NEET figures for years 12-14 (see Glossary). September 2016 NEET are not comparable to previous figures.

Local Commentary

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Job Creation and Planned Developments Premier Inn has won approval to build a 100-bedroom hotel in Sandown on the Isle of Wight, which could

create 65 jobs. [10-Nov-2016]

MHI Vestas is to create 70 new jobs at its wind turbine blade factory on the Isle of Wight. [03-Nov-2016]

Lidl is creating up to 400 jobs at a new £55m 420,000 sq ft distribution centre in Southampton. [02-Nov-2016]

Ministry of Defence has awarded a £1.1bn contract to Aspire Defence Capital Works to build new Army accommodation and facilities at Salisbury Plain and Aldershot by 2020. [02-Nov-2016]

Ministry of Defence has announced plans for a £117m maritime technology project in Fareham, with the

creation of 150 jobs across a consortium led by Thales, including about 50 at Portchester-based ASV Global. [31-Oct-2016]

YachtProjects International is planning to expand its superyacht communications business, having relocated to

the Solent Refit site in Hythe. [17-Oct-2016 Relocations, Mergers and Acquisitions SPIE has acquired Trios, the Birmingham-based facilities maintenance firm with about 690 staff and sites in

Basingstoke, Cirencester, Enfield and Warrington, for undisclosed terms. [08-Nov-2016]

Yeomans has acquired WKB Nissan, the Waterlooville-based car dealership with 35 staff. [24-Oct-2016]

Snows Group has acquired three Citroen and Peugeot car dealerships in Basingstoke out of administration from City Motor Holdings, and will re-employ more than 30 staff. [20-Oct-2016]

Tithegrove is looking to create an unspecified number of new jobs at its landscaping office in Winchester. [19-

Oct-2016]

Hammer, the Basingstoke-based server and storage solutions distributor with 165 staff, is to be acquired by DCC of Ireland. [17-Oct-2016]

Job Losses ,Closures and Administration

Pfizer is planning to close its Hospira pharmaceuticals site at Park Royal in London by next August, and its packaging and distribution plant in Havant by 2020, casting doubt on the future of more than 370 jobs. [10-Nov-2016]Ericsson is reported to be planning to shed up to 20 jobs at its telecommunications office in Southampton. [08-Nov-2016]

Construction Partnership has gone into administration through CVR Global, with the loss of 14 jobs at its Southampton-based building business. [31-Oct-2016]

BETD Cycle Components has acquired Middleburn, the Hampshire-based cycle component manufacturer, out

of liquidation. [17-Oct-2016]

Business Activity reported between October 2016 and November 2016

Local Business News

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The International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) definitions are the Government’s preferred measure of labour market statistics, and taken as an estimate from the Labour Force Survey. A person is deemed to be unemployed if they are aged 16 and over who are without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks. The Annual Population Survey modelled data for unemployment are used for the nearest equivalent ILO estimates for Local Authorities, although the two are not directly comparable. The ILO differs to the JSA claimant data, which is an actual count of those aged 16+ who are eligible and signed on as actively seeking work.

ILO Unemployment as percentage of economically-active population (seasonally adjusted) Jul 2016 –Sep 2016

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

South East region 87,000 3.5 83,000 3.8 170,000 3.6 -3,000 -13,000

United Kingdom 876,000 4.9 728,000 4.7 1,604,000 4.8 -37,000 -146,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Estimates are taken from a three quarter rolling average with seasonal adjustments. Quarter difference compared to previous non-overlapping three month quarter average. Change on year refers to the same quarter period from the previous year.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Labour Market Indicators (next update January 2017)

12 months to June 2016

Labour Supply Labour Demand Employment Modelled Unemployment Economic Inactivity Jobs 2014 Total 000’s % Total

000’s %a %b Total 000’s % Total

000’s Density

Hampshire (CC) 689 79.5 28 3.6 3.3 142 17.2 697 0.85

Basingstoke & Deane 92 79.3 4 3.7 3.9 18 16.8 88 0.80

East Hampshire 56 74.0 2 3.3 3.9 16 22.1 56 0.79

Eastleigh 71 82.0 2 3.1 2.5 13 15.5 67 0.83

Fareham 57 77.5 2 3.7 5.2 12 17.3 59 0.85

Gosport 43 78.3 2 4.1 5.0 9 16.7 27 0.51

Hart 47 79.7 1 2.7 1.7 10 18.6 51 0.89

Havant 57 74.9 3 5.1 4.1 15 21.0 54 0.74

New Forest 87 80.9 3 3.3 2.6 17 16.5 80 0.79

Rushmoor 55 86.8 2 3.0 4.2 6 9.0 54 0.85

Test Valley 59 78.0 2 3.2 3.0 14 19.0 70 0.96

Winchester 64 83.1 2 2.5 0.0 12 16.9 92 1.26

Portsmouth 100 70.9 7 6.3 4.0 35 25.1 122 0.86

Southampton 128 73.4 9 6.3 4.4 38 22.2 131 0.78

Hampshire (HEA) 918 77.7 43 4.5 3.3 215 19.0 950 0.83

Isle of Wight 61 75.5 3 5.4 3.9 16 20.6 59 0.74

South East region* 4,462 77.3 192 4.1 3.5 1,061 19.2 4,678 0.85

United Kingdom* 31,327 73.7 1,684 5.1 4.0 9,116 22.3 33,469 0.82 Source: ONS Modelled Unemployment/Annual Population Survey. Totals represent '000s. Data are not seasonally adjusted.‘a’ Unemployment rate using 16+ population. ‘b’ Unemployed rate derived from Employed and Economically Inactive rates *Data from APS. **HEA unemployed rates are derived by aggregating from the ONS model based unemployment data and the latest APS 16+ unemployment denominator. The Modelled count and rate will be different (and lower) to the APS count and rate.

National and Regional ILO Labour Market with Local ILO Nearest Equivalents

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The Office for National Statistics produces adjustments to take account of seasonal variations in demand for labour, but only at the national and regional level. This measure is commonly quoted by the national media. The second set are seasonally unadjusted claimant count published at the local level. This local measure is most commonly used by local authorities as the more timely, but narrower measure of unemployment. Seasonally adjusted National and Regional Claimant Counts 18+ Number* and % working age** (experimental) October 2016 Male Female Total Change On The

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year South East region 39,679 1.4 23,209 0.8 62,888 1.1 705 3,360

United Kingdom 515,568 2.5 287,690 1.4 803,258 1.9 9,824 9,911

Source: ONS. *ONS First Release JSA seasonally adjusted + Universal Credit seasonally adjusted. **ONS First Release use Jobseeker's Allowance + out-of-work Universal Credit + Workforce jobs as the denominator.

The Universal Credit (UC), a single payment for people who are looking for work or are on a low income, was first piloted in 2013, and then rolled out in phases nationally to Jobcentre Plus offices (JCPs). Local JCPs in Hampshire started to go ‘live’ in April 2015 (Southampton), while all of Hampshire’s JCPs are scheduled to go ‘live’ by April 2016. In light of the number of JCPs recording ‘live’ Universal Credit data, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the new experimental Claimant Counts on 11 November 2015. This data records eligible persons claiming Jobseeker's Allowance plus new or transferred claimants who are out of work and claiming Universal Credit. The ONS called the new dataset the Claimant Count. The previous claimant counts based only on JSA are still collected and published, but referred to as the Jobseekers Allowance. Users need to be aware of these differences. The ONS decided to replace the number of people claiming only Jobseeker's Allowance as the headline indicator for the number of people claiming benefits, principally for the reason of being unemployed, and use the new Claimant Count as the headline i.e. JSA + Universal Credit. This changes will impact on those areas where Universal Credit data has already gone ‘live’. Locally, this will be in Southampton and Eastleigh, where collection has taken place over a longer period. For other areas, there will be no immediate or noticeable difference between the ‘old’ JSA and the new claimant count. Eventually, all unemployed claimants will be transferred to the Universal Credit. The new Claimant Count dataset does not currently publish claimants by duration or sought occupation. The two tables in the Labour Market Bulletin that captures this data will continue to be published, but using the JSA only data i.e. it will not include any new Universal Credit (UC) claimants.

Seasonally and Non-Seasonally adjusted Claimant Count Trends

New (experimental) Claimant Count and Jobseekers Allowance Only Local Data

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Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Counts

Oct 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 3,795 0.9 2,315 0.6 6,110 0.7 40 110 Basingstoke & Deane 525 1.0 355 0.6 875 0.8 20 45 East Hampshire 260 0.8 180 0.5 440 0.6 0 -10 Eastleigh 325 0.8 185 0.5 510 0.6 -10 5 Fareham 265 0.8 165 0.5 430 0.6 0 15 Gosport 375 1.4 210 0.8 585 1.1 25 0 Hart 140 0.5 90 0.3 225 0.4 -10 -25 Havant 615 1.7 370 1.0 985 1.4 -20 -50 New Forest 410 0.8 235 0.5 645 0.6 15 20 Rushmoor 340 1.1 205 0.7 545 0.9 -5 -15 Test Valley 280 0.8 175 0.5 455 0.6 15 45 Winchester 255 0.7 150 0.4 405 0.5 5 65 Portsmouth 1,260 1.7 745 1.1 2,005 1.4 25 -60 Southampton 1,560 1.7 780 0.9 2,340 1.4 -40 15 Hampshire (HEA) 6,610 1.2 3,840 0.7 10,455 0.9 25 65 Isle of Wight 845 2.1 465 1.1 1,310 1.6 70 -20 Enterprise M3 LEP 3,625 0.7 2,275 0.4 5,900 0.6 155 510 Solent LEP 5,590 1.1 3,150 0.6 8,740 0.9 25 -110 South East region* 37,080 1.3 23,000 0.8 60,080 1.1 710 3,635 Great Britain 459,450 2.3 274,180 1.4 733,635 1.8 -1,050 16,805 United Kingdom 482,460 2.3 284,840 1.4 767,300 1.9 -2,560 10,715 Source: ONS.

Claimant Counts Relative to the UK and South East region (October 2016)

New Claimant Counts and Change on Month and Year

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Total Claimant Count Number change on previous month

Source: ONS

Total Claimant Count Number Annual Change

Source: ONS The ONS monthly claimant count numbers at this geographic level are seasonally unadjusted i.e. do not factor in naturally occurring underlying cycles in seasonal demand for labour. To compare on a like-for-like basis to the same period in the previous year should be looked at to gauge if unemployment is better or worse. At the national and regional level ONS produce seasonally adjusted JSA that take account of seasonal variations, although these are not comparable to the local data (see page 8).

Solent (LEP), 25Enterprise M3 (LEP), 155

Isle of Wight, 70Hampshire (HEA), 25

Hampshire (HCC), 40Southampton, -40

Portsmouth, 25Winchester, 5

Test Valley, 15Rushmoor, -5

New Forest, 15Havant, -20

Hart, -10

Gosport, 25Fareham, 0

Eastleigh, -10East Hampshire, 0

Basingstoke & Deane, 20

-200 -100 0 100 200 300

October 2016 unemployment claimant count (JSA+UC) change on September 2016

Solent (LEP), -110Enterprise M3 (LEP), 510

Isle of Wight, -20Hampshire (HEA), 65

Hampshire (HCC), 110Southampton, 15

Portsmouth, -60Winchester, 65

Test Valley, 45Rushmoor, -15

New Forest, 20Havant, -50

Hart, -25Gosport, 0

Fareham, 15Eastleigh, 5

East Hampshire, -10Basingstoke & Deane, 45

-300 -100 100 300 500 700

Oct 2016 unemployment benefit claimant count (JSA+UC) change on Oct 2015

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UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Jul 2016 to Sep 2016

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

16-17 years 64,000 30.1 54,000 22.5 118,000 26.0 -28,000 -17,000 16-24 years 349,000 15.6 187,000 10.4 591,000 13.1 -36,000 -60,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (16-24yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update Jan 2017). 12 months to Jun 2016

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 10,200 10.5 2,300 2.2

Portsmouth 2,300 13.3 -600 -2.8 Southampton 4,000 13.6 800 -0.4

Hampshire (HEA) 16,500 11.5 2,400 1.2

Isle of Wight 1,500 15.0 0 0.0

Enterprise M3 LEP 11,100 11.4 4,500 4.6 Solent LEP 13,900 13.3 1,200 0.1 South East region 79,400 12.6 -1,600 -0.9 Great Britain 622,100 14.1 -70,100 -1.6 United Kingdom 640,700 14.1 -75,500 -1.8 Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points)

Seasonally unadjusted New Claimants Counts (16-24yrs) – The more up to date, but much narrower definition of youth unemployment.

Oct 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 840 1.2 525 0.8 1,365 1.0 70 35

Basingstoke & Deane 85 1.0 65 0.8 155 1.0 15 5 East Hampshire 65 1.1 35 0.6 100 0.9 5 -5 Eastleigh 90 1.4 50 0.8 140 1.1 10 15 Fareham 55 0.9 40 0.8 95 0.8 10 0 Gosport 95 2.0 65 1.5 160 1.8 -5 10 Hart 15 0.3 10 0.3 25 0.3 -5 -30 Havant 145 2.2 90 1.4 240 1.9 15 -15 New Forest 105 1.3 55 0.7 160 1.0 15 15 Rushmoor 80 1.4 50 1.0 125 1.2 0 20 Test Valley 65 1.1 45 0.8 110 1.0 10 25 Winchester 40 0.6 20 0.3 60 0.4 5 -5 Portsmouth 230 1.2 150 0.9 380 1.1 35 5 Southampton 355 1.5 195 0.9 545 1.2 20 20

Hampshire (HEA) 1,420 1.3 870 0.8 2,290 1.1 120 60

Isle of Wight 220 3.2 115 1.8 335 2.5 45 40 Enterprise M3 LEP 690 0.8 425 0.5 1,115 0.7 65 160 Solent LEP 1,275 1.2 750 0.8 2,025 1.0 135 50 South East region 7,980 1.6 4,905 1.0 12,880 1.3 565 895 Great Britain 105,090 2.9 61,615 1.7 166,710 2.3 2,245 1,155 United Kingdom 110,790 2.9 64,280 1.8 175,070 2.4 1,590 -1,315 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Young People (16-24) ILO unemployment and New Claimant Counts

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UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Jul 2016 to Sep 2016

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

18-24 years 286,000 13.6 241,000 11.0 473,000 11.7 -8,000 -43,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

There is no 18-24 APS Unemployment by age category to give a nearest equivalent.

Seasonally unadjusted New Claimant Counts (18-24yrs) - The more up to date, but much narrower definition of unemployment Few 16 or 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA/UC, so the 18-24 year measure is often used as an alternative.

Oct 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 835 1.6 525 1.1 1,360 1.3 70 35

Basingstoke & Deane 85 1.4 65 1.1 150 1.2 10 0 East Hampshire 65 1.5 35 0.9 100 1.2 5 -5 Eastleigh 90 1.8 50 1.1 140 1.4 10 15 Fareham 55 1.2 40 1.1 95 1.1 10 0 Gosport 95 2.5 65 2.0 160 2.3 -5 10 Hart 15 0.5 10 0.4 25 0.4 -5 -30 Havant 145 2.8 90 1.9 240 2.4 15 -15 New Forest 105 1.7 55 1.0 160 1.4 15 15 Rushmoor 75 1.7 50 1.3 125 1.5 0 20 Test Valley 65 1.5 45 1.1 110 1.3 15 30 Winchester 40 0.7 20 0.3 60 0.5 5 -5 Portsmouth 225 1.3 150 1.0 375 1.2 30 0 Southampton 355 1.6 195 1.0 545 1.3 20 25

Hampshire (HEA) 1,415 1.6 865 1.0 2,280 1.3 125 60

Isle of Wight 220 4.2 115 2.5 335 3.4 45 40 Enterprise M3 LEP 685 1.0 420 0.7 1,110 0.9 70 160 Solent LEP 1,270 1.5 745 1.0 2,015 1.3 135 50 South East region 7,950 2.0 4,870 1.3 12,820 1.7 570 890 Great Britain 104,730 3.6 61,260 2.2 165,990 2.9 2,215 1,055 United Kingdom 110,415 3.7 63,920 2.2 174,335 3.0 1,560 -1,405 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5. The 18-24 year old claimant count is sometimes preferred over the 16-24 age group as few 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA or Universal Credit, with the majority of 16-24yr old claimants falling within the 18-24 broad age group.

Young People (18-24) ILO unemployment and New Claimant Counts

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Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (25-49yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update Jan 2017) 12 months to Jun 2016

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 11,900 3.2 1,300 0.5

Portsmouth 2,200 3.6 -100 -0.1 Southampton 2,800 3.6 -100 -0.2

Hampshire (HEA) 17,000 3.3 1,300 0.3

Isle of Wight 1,100 3.6 -800 -2.9

Enterprise M3 LEP 11,900 2.8 -1,700 -0.3 Solent LEP 10,800 3.2 -300 0.0 South East region 77,300 3.0 -7,100 -0.3 Great Britain 707,000 3.9 -82,500 -0.5 United Kingdom 730,600 3.9 -82,800 -0.5 Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points) Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (25-49yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment

Oct 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 1,845 0.9 1,155 0.5 3,000 0.7 -45 -70

Basingstoke & Deane 275 0.9 185 0.6 460 0.7 10 -10 East Hampshire 110 0.7 95 0.5 200 0.6 -15 -10 Eastleigh 160 0.8 100 0.5 260 0.6 -5 5 Fareham 135 0.8 80 0.4 215 0.6 -10 10 Gosport 195 1.4 95 0.7 290 1.1 25 -20 Hart 80 0.5 45 0.3 125 0.4 0 5 Havant 290 1.7 175 1.0 460 1.3 -40 -45 New Forest 180 0.8 120 0.5 300 0.6 0 -10 Rushmoor 165 0.9 100 0.5 265 0.7 0 -35 Test Valley 130 0.7 75 0.4 205 0.6 0 5 Winchester 130 0.8 90 0.5 220 0.6 -10 35 Portsmouth 705 1.9 425 1.2 1,130 1.6 -5 -55 Southampton 825 1.8 445 1.1 1,270 1.5 -35 -10

Hampshire (HEA) 3,375 1.2 2,025 0.7 5,400 0.9 4,795 4,705

Isle of Wight 400 2.1 220 1.1 625 1.6 -2,340 -2,255 Enterprise M3 LEP 1,805 0.7 1,220 0.4 3,030 0.6 -1,565 -1,675 Solent LEP 2,870 1.1 1,645 0.6 4,520 0.9 -26,445 -25,665 South East region 18,880 1.3 12,095 0.8 30,975 1.1 -363,805 -361,170 Great Britain 243,780 2.3 146,350 1.4 390,130 1.8 -22,460 -22,510 United Kingdom 255,660 2.4 151,465 1.4 407,130 1.9 401,645 401,595 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Younger Working Age (25-49yrs) ILO unemployment and New Claimant Count

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Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (50-64yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update Jan 2017) 12 months to Jun 2016

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 4,600 2.2 200 0.0

Portsmouth 1,100 4.3 200 0.6 Southampton 700 2.6 -400 -1.0

Hampshire (HEA) 6,300 2.4 -100 -0.1

Isle of Wight ~ 1.6 n/a -2.8

Enterprise M3 LEP 5,200 2.2 -400 -0.4 Solent LEP 4,400 2.7 -1,200 -0.6 South East region 33,100 2.6 -4,500 -0.4 Great Britain 286,700 3.4 -9,800 -0.2 United Kingdom 295,500 3.4 -11,400 -0.2 Source: Annual Population Survey. ~ less than 500. PPTS (Percentage points) Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (50-64yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment

Oct 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 1,105 0.8 635 0.5 1,740 0.7 10 145

Basingstoke & Deane 160 1.0 100 0.6 260 0.8 -5 50 East Hampshire 85 0.7 50 0.4 140 0.6 10 5 Eastleigh 75 0.6 40 0.3 115 0.5 -10 -5 Fareham 80 0.7 45 0.4 125 0.5 5 5 Gosport 85 1.1 50 0.6 135 0.8 5 15 Hart 40 0.5 35 0.4 75 0.4 -5 -5 Havant 180 1.5 105 0.8 285 1.2 5 10 New Forest 130 0.7 60 0.3 190 0.5 5 15 Rushmoor 100 1.2 55 0.7 155 1.0 0 0 Test Valley 85 0.7 55 0.4 140 0.6 0 15 Winchester 85 0.7 40 0.3 120 0.5 5 35 Portsmouth 325 2.0 170 1.1 495 1.5 -5 -10 Southampton 375 2.1 145 0.8 520 1.4 -25 0

Hampshire (HEA) 1,810 1.1 950 0.6 2,755 0.8 -20 135

Isle of Wight 220 1.5 130 0.9 350 1.2 10 10 Enterprise M3 LEP 1,125 0.7 630 0.4 1,750 0.6 25 205 Solent LEP 1,445 0.9 755 0.5 2,195 0.7 -30 30 South East region 10,195 1.3 5,980 0.7 16,175 1.0 135 1,975 Great Britain 110,165 1.9 65,990 1.1 176,150 1.5 1,420 17,965 United Kingdom 115,440 2.0 68,810 1.1 184,250 1.6 1,370 17,860 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Older Working Age (50-64yrs) ILO unemployment and New Claimant Count

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Main Worklessness Measures (Hierarchical Counts*). Next update Feb 2017 (Aug 2016 data)

May 2016 Main Out of Work

Jobseekers Allowance ESA/IB Lone Parent

Other Income based

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Hampshire CC 44,100 5.4 5,070 0.6 32,470 3.9 5,550 0.7 1,010 0.1 B’stoke & Deane 5,790 5.3 770 0.7 4,140 3.8 760 0.7 130 0.1 East Hampshire 3,060 4.3 360 0.5 2,310 3.3 320 0.5 60 0.1 Eastleigh 3,820 4.8 390 0.5 2,880 3.6 480 0.6 80 0.1 Fareham 3,090 4.4 380 0.5 2,320 3.3 310 0.5 70 0.1 Gosport 4,150 7.9 470 0.9 2,980 5.7 600 1.2 90 0.2 Hart 1,730 3.0 220 0.4 1,240 2.2 240 0.4 30 0.0 Havant 6,460 8.8 880 1.2 4,480 6.1 950 1.3 150 0.2 New Forest 5,680 5.6 510 0.5 4,370 4.3 650 0.6 140 0.1 Rushmoor 3,800 6.0 460 0.7 2,720 4.3 500 0.8 130 0.2 Test Valley 3,490 4.8 300 0.4 2,670 3.7 440 0.6 80 0.1 Winchester 3,040 4.1 330 0.4 2,340 3.2 310 0.4 60 0.1 Portsmouth 12,120 8.5 1,750 1.2 8,190 5.7 1,860 1.3 320 0.2 Southampton 14,380 8.4 1,690 1.0 10,240 5.9 2,110 1.2 340 0.2 Hampshire (HEA) 70,600 6.2 8,510 0.7 50,900 4.5 9,530 0.8 1,670 0.1 Isle of Wight 8,090 10.1 1,070 1.3 5,910 7.4 890 1.1 220 0.3 Enterprise M3 LEP 47,310 4.6 5,170 0.5 35,020 3.4 6,090 0.6 1,030 0.1 Solent LEP 52,110 5.3 6,630 0.7 37,010 3.7 7,200 0.7 1,270 0.1 South East reg. 345,650 6.2 45,590 0.8 245,780 4.4 46,130 0.8 8,150 0.1 Great Britain 3,502,820 8.7 536,200 1.3 2,464,740 6.2 416,470 1.0 85,410 0.2 Source: Department for Work and Pensions *To avoid double counting the out-of-work benefit claimants are allocated to one benefit using a hierarchical system, so that a person claiming Employment Support Allowance (ESA) and Lone Parent benefits would be counted under ESA and so forth.

Working Age Out-of-Work Benefit Claimant Rates Relative to the GB and South East region

Quarter Worklessness Statistics

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Ward (2015) Claimant Count Hotspots October 2016

Top and Bottom 25 Wards by New Claimant Count Number and Rate (Oct 2016)

25 Wards with highest Claimant Count 25 Wards with lowest Claimant Count

Ward 2015 District No. Rate Ward 2015 District No. Rate Ryde North East Isle of Wight 90 3.8 Boldre and Sway New Forest 10 0.3 Charles Dickens Isle of Wight 380 2.9 Totton South New Forest 10 0.3 Battins Isle of Wight 125 2.8 Hiltingbury West Eastleigh 10 0.3 Newport East Isle of Wight 55 2.8 Droxford, Soberton and Hambledon Winchester 5 0.3 Warren Park Havant 125 2.7 Littleton and Harestock Winchester 5 0.3 Ryde South Isle of Wight 80 2.7 Central Wight Isle of Wight 5 0.3 Sandown North Isle of Wight 45 2.5 Froxfield and Steep East Hants 5 0.3 Ryde North West Isle of Wight 50 2.4 Holybourne and Froyle East Hants 5 0.3 Town Gosport 80 2.3 Petersfield St Peters East Hants 5 0.3 Shanklin Central Isle of Wight 50 2.3 East Woodhay B & D 5 0.3 Bitterne Southampton 195 2.2 Upton Grey and The Candovers B & D 5 0.3 Bondfields Havant 95 2.2 Odiham Hart 10 0.2 Lake North Isle of Wight 50 2.2 Hill Head Fareham 10 0.2 Woolston Southampton 190 2.1 Swanmore and Newtown Winchester 5 0.2 Barncroft Havant 90 2.1 Broughton and Stockbridge Test Valley 5 0.2 Sandown South Isle of Wight 50 2.1 Downlands and Forest New Forest 5 0.2 Ryde East Isle of Wight 45 2.1 Binsted and Bentley East Hants 5 0.2 Ryde West Isle of Wight 45 2.1 The Hangers and Forest East Hants 5 0.2 Shanklin South Isle of Wight 40 2.1 Blackwater Test Valley 5 0.1 Bevois Southampton 280 2.0 Forest North West New Forest 0 0.0 Nelson Portsmouth 200 2.0 Sparsholt Winchester 0 ~ Redbridge Southampton 185 2.0 Ampfield and Braishfield Test Valley 0 ~ Newport Central Isle of Wight 50 2.0 Bramshaw, Copythorne Nth & Minstead New Forest 0 ~ Newport South Isle of Wight 45 2.0 Ropley and Tisted East Hants 0 ~ Whippingham and Osborne Isle of Wight 45 2.0 Sherborne St John B & D 0 ~ Source: NOMIS. Ranked highest to lowest by Rate and then by Number. B&D Basingstoke & Deane.~ Not available. Numbers below 3 are shown as 0 in the raw data and are equal to either 0, 1 or 2 claimants. All data are rounded to the nearest 5 and may not precisely add to the sum of the number of people claiming JSA, published on Nomis, and the number of out-of-work people claiming Universal Credit, published by DWP, due to independent rounding..

Small Area Claimant Count Hotspots

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There are several methods used to record young people who are considered to be not in education, employment or training. The three primary sources come from the annual Participation in Education, Training and Employment First Release, the Quarterly NEETS derived from the Labour Force Survey, and from local authority Client Caseload Information Systems (CCIS) as an annual adjusted average published by the Department for Education. Local Authority CCIS data is captured monthly. How to interpret the local monthly adjusted NEET data can be found on Page 20. The three sources are not comparable. The 2014 Annual Department for Education’s Statistical First Release (SFR): Participation in Education, Training and Employment by 16-18 Year Olds in England (Next update June 2017)

The primary source of national data on 16-18 year old NEETs. The latest annual provisional rate for 16-18 year olds, at end 2015, was 6.5%, a fall of 1.1 percentage points from 7.6% at end of 2014.

Quarterly Labour Force Survey (DfE LFS Series Quarter 2, 2016)

16-18 NEET % Quarter 2: Apr-Jun 2016 Change on year (Apr-Jun 2015)

Percentage points England 8.0% +0.5 (7.5%) Source: Labour Force Survey LFS allows in-year estimates to be made of NEET. The quarterly LFS estimates cannot be directly compared with the headline Participation SFR series based on more detailed but less timely data.

Local NEET

DfE Annual Local Authority 16- 18-year olds Not in Education, Employment or Training (2015) 16-18 NEET Estimated NEET Estimated NEET %

Hampshire CC 1,230 3.0% Portsmouth CC 330 5.6% Southampton CC 320 4.7% Isle of Wight 120 2.8% South East region 10.870 3.9% Source: Department for Education. Published March 2015. The ‘local authority NEET figures’ provides an annual estimate, based on average figures for November 2013 to January 2014 each year.

Actual NEET Monthly Local Authorities’ Client Caseload Information System (CCIS) – Sept 2016 (yr. 12 and13 cohort only – see Glossary) Local Education Authorities capture monthly NEET for the DfE. These are not comparable to the SFR or LFS series above. See Glossary for further guidance.

NEET Yrs 12 and 13 Sep 2016

Actual NEET % Actual NEET* EET

Hampshire (CC) 1.0% 282 22,234 Basingstoke & Deane 1.4% 52 3,390 East Hampshire 0.8% 20 1,838 Eastleigh 0.6% 16 2,152 Fareham 0.6% 15 2,096 Gosport 1.0% 19 1,516 Hart 0.5% 10 1,565 Havant 1.6% 41 2,101 New Forest 0.7% 22 2,517 Rushmoor 1.8% 29 1,217 Test Valley 1.6% 41 1,759 Winchester 0.7% 17 2,083 Isle of Wight 1.1% 31 1,450 Source: Hampshire County Council. EET (Employment, Education or Training). *Figures are NEET figures by academic age and based on residential postcode not location of educational setting..

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

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Labour Force Survey (LFS)/Annual Population Survey (APS) definitions Economically Active: People aged 16 and over who are either in employment or unemployed. The Economically active rate is the percentage of people aged 16 and over who are economically active. Employment: People aged 16 or over who did paid work in the reference week (whether employed or self-employed); those who had a job that they were temporarily away from; those on government supported training and employment programmes; and those doing unpaid family work (a person who works without pay in an economic enterprise operated by a related person living in the same household). The rate is the percentage of total in employment of all people in the relevant age group. ILO Unemployment: All people aged 16 and over who are:

without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two

weeks; or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks.

The unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active who are unemployed. Economically Inactive: People who are neither in employment nor unemployed. This group includes, for example,

those looking after the family and/or home Long term ill Students or retired.

The inactive rate is expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 16 and over, but can be calculated for an population group, such as those of working age. Department for Work and Pensions definitions (New) Claimant Count: Based on the administrative records of people claiming unemployed benefits. Since November 2015 this has been the number of people previously claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) and new or transferred unemployed claimants on Universal Credit. The claimant count consists of all people claiming JSA+UC at Jobcentre Plus local offices. They must declare that they are out of work, capable of, available for and actively seeking work during the week in which their claim is made. Nationally and regionally, the claimant rate is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a percentage of the sum of claimants and workforce jobs in the area (mid-year estimates are used). Sub-regionally, the claimant count is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a proportion of the resident population of working age. As at August 2010 working age is now 16-64 for both females and males. Worklessness: Benefits that are paid to client groups subject to labour market activation policies, including: Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA); Employment Support Allowance (ESA) or Incapacity Benefit (IB); Lone parent; and Income support (IS). Sought occupations: are the types of occupations claimants are seeking when they register.

Glossary

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Interpreting Local Actual NEET data

Local NEET data follows a common pattern over the course of an academic year, with spikes occurring naturally each September. Young people are in transition over this period and school/college destination records not returned and recorded until October. Thereafter, rates and levels are fairly stable to August. As of September 2016 the NEET are limited to just years 12 and 13 rather than years 12-14 as before. • Local authorities will only be required to include information about young people up to the end of the academic year in which they have their 18th birthday (academic age 16 and 17). Authorities will no longer be required to track young people of academic age 18. From September 2016 the DfE will no longer publish local authority statistics about academic age 18-year-olds. – The DfE will continue to publish annual LA NEET statistics, but these will only cover academic age 16 and 17-year-olds and not academic age 18-year-olds. The NEET figure will be the Actual NEET rather then the Adjusted NEET previously published. The data is not comparable to previous NEET figures and time series will resume in November 2017 with the publication September 2017 NEET. Geography Hampshire (HCC) refers to the County Council area only. The Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) includes Hampshire County Council, Portsmouth City Council and Southampton City Council. Using the ONS definition as at January 2013: The Enterprise M3 LEP covers: New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, East Hampshire, Basingstoke and Deane, Hart, Rushmoor, Guildford, Surrey Heath, Waverley and Woking. The Solent LEP covers the New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, Southampton, Eastleigh, Fareham, Gosport, Portsmouth, East Hampshire, Havant and the Isle of Wight. Four Hampshire districts overlap with Solent: New Forest, East Hampshire, Test Valley and Winchester. The ONS LEP definitions may differ to definitions being used locally and based on other geographies. This publication is produced by Social and Economic Research (SER), Hampshire County Council. For further information on the bulletin or to subscribe please contact Gareth Henry (Senior Research Officer) E-mail: gareth.henry@hants.gov.uk Telephone:01962 846791

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

September peaks September peaks