Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland,...

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Hal Gordon Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Natural Resources Conservation Service Service West National Technical Service Center West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon Portland, Oregon

Transcript of Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland,...

Page 1: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Hal GordonHal GordonNatural Resources Conservation ServiceNatural Resources Conservation Service

West National Technical Service CenterWest National Technical Service Center

Portland, OregonPortland, Oregon

Page 2: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Economic Tools to Evaluate Economic Tools to Evaluate Farm/Ranch AlternativesFarm/Ranch Alternatives

Economic Tools to Evaluate Economic Tools to Evaluate Farm/Ranch AlternativesFarm/Ranch Alternatives

Page 3: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

The Goal: An Economical Farm/Ranch PlanThe Goal: An Economical Farm/Ranch Plan

Page 4: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Why Farm or Ranch?Why Farm or Ranch?

LifestyleLifestyle Income BusinessIncome Business Real Estate MarketReal Estate Market

Page 5: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Scoping

Page 6: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Stores

Money forHome

FamilyLabor

Church

In-Laws

Neighbors

Money for Retirement

Livestock Management

Farm Loan

Animal Habitat

Seed Costs

Fertilizer Costs

Taxes

Predator Management

Equipment

Death Loss

Commodity ProgramPayments

4H CLUB

Kids

Money for College

Hired Labor

Clubs (HomemakersFarm Bureau)

Pesticide Costs

Grandfather'sLog Cabin

FFA CLUB

Plant Management

Soil Erosion

NutrientManagement

Pasture management

Water Quantity

Water QualitySoil Condition

Recreation

Fishing - Hunting

Banker

Electric Power Line

Neighbors

Seed Costs

The Social The Social EnvironmentEnvironment

Equipment

The Business The Business EnvironmentEnvironment

SPOUSE

SCHOOL

Kids

The Resource The Resource EnvironmentEnvironment

Taxes

Markets

Conservation Compliance

Landlord

The Planning Environment

$ $

$

Page 7: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Green HouseSpecialty Crops

Guide Service

LivestockInternet/Computer

Markets

Row CropsHome Based Business

RecreationHunting

Repair Service

Contractor

FishingPoultry

SCOPING: Identify all opportunities and focus on those to be considered in the planning process.

Arts

Poultry

Home Based Business

Arts

Page 8: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Scoping• Identify significant ideas to evaluate• Provide a record of ideas considered• Reduces the number of alternatives

Page 9: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Developing Alternatives

Page 10: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

AlternativesAlternativesAlternativesAlternatives

List all alternatives to be consideredList all alternatives to be considered Identify concerns to addressIdentify concerns to address Evaluate positive and negative impacts Evaluate positive and negative impacts Developed with all decision makersDeveloped with all decision makers

Page 11: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Alternative Evaluation WorksheetAlternative Evaluation WorksheetAlternative Evaluation WorksheetAlternative Evaluation Worksheet

Concerns to AddressConcerns to Address AlternativesAlternatives IncomeIncome LaborLabor FamilyFamily

PoultryPoultry +3 +3 -1-1 +5 +5ArtsArts +2 +2 -2-2 +1 +1Home BusinessHome Business +3 +3 -2 -2 -1 -1

Page 12: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Effects for Decision Making

Page 13: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Effects for Decision MakingEffects for Decision MakingEffects for Decision MakingEffects for Decision Making

Benchmark(Present Condition)

Alternative(Future Condition)

Impacts(Things that Change)

Decision

Maker’s

Values

“T”ChartBenefits& Costs

Page 14: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

TREATMENT EFFECTS INFORMATION

NAME/LOCATION – Your informationDATE – Current date

ALTERNATIVE:Describe the alternative to be analyzed

BENCHMARK:Describe the current farm activities

“+” POSITIVE EFFECTS (Benefits) “-” NEGATIVE EFFECTS (Costs)

Identify all the benefits from the alternative

Identify all the costs of the alternative

“T” Chart

Page 15: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Benefit Cost Analysis

Page 16: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Benefit & Cost AnalysisBenefit & Cost Analysis

Economic analysis requires four simple steps:Economic analysis requires four simple steps:

1. Estimate Costs1. Estimate Costs

2. Estimate Benefits2. Estimate Benefits

3. Convert to “Like Terms” 3. Convert to “Like Terms”

4. Compare Costs & Benefits4. Compare Costs & Benefits

Page 17: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Benefit & Cost AnalysisBenefit & Cost AnalysisSmall Chicken Flock Example

Page 18: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Raise ChickensChicken Coop $10,000/BuildingChicken Expenses $8,030/YearNumber of Birds 600/YearBird Sale Weight 6 Lbs/BirdBird Value $2.50/LbPounds Chicken Litter 6 Ton/YearValue of Chicken Manure $50/TonEggs/Meat for Home Use $500Discount Rate 7%Time Period 10 YearsTime Managing ChickensPasture Land out of ProductionIncrease in Chicken PredatorsIncrease RiskKid Employment

Benefit & Cost AnalysisBenefit & Cost Analysis PROBLEMSFarm Profitability

SOLUTIONRaise Chickens

Page 19: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Additional CostsAdditional Costs Chicken Coop $10,000/Building Chicken Expenses $8,030/YearTime Managing ChickensTime Managing ChickensChicken Predator ControlChicken Predator Control

Reduced RevenueReduced Revenue Lost Pasture Land

1. Estimate Costs 1. Estimate Costs

Page 20: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Chicken BudgetChicken Budget

Page 21: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Reduced CostsReduced Costs Job/Experience for Kids

Additional RevenueAdditional Revenue Chicken Income $9,000/Year Fertilizer $300/Year Fresh Eggs/Meat at Home $500/Year

2. Estimate Benefits2. Estimate Benefits

Page 22: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Step 3. Convert to “Like Terms”Step 3. Convert to “Like Terms”• Convert to Dollars (If Possible)• Same Units and Time Period• $/Unit/Year

CostsCostsChicken Expenses $8,030/YearChicken Coop $10,000/Building

Page 23: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

AmortizationAmortization

Chicken Coop

Time Period 10 YearsDiscount Rate 7 Percent

Present Value $10,000

Payment ? ($/Year)

Page 24: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

AVERAGE ANNUAL COST TABLE

PER $ OF INSTALLATION COST

LIFE % INTEREST RATE

YEARS 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2 0.545 0.553 0.561 0.568 0.576 0.584 0.592 0.599

3 0.374 0.381 0.388 0.395 0.402 0.409 0.416 0.424

4 0.289 0.295 0.302 0.309 0.315 0.322 0.329 0.336

5 0.237 0.244 0.25 0.257 0.264 0.271 0.277 0.284

6 0.203 0.21 0.216 0.223 0.23 0.236 0.243 0.25

7 0.179 0.186 0.192 0.199 0.205 0.212 0.219 0.226

8 0.161 0.167 0.174 0.181 0.187 0.194 0.201 0.208

9 0.147 0.153 0.16 0.167 0.174 0.181 0.188 0.195

10 0.136 0.142 0.149 0.156 0.163 0.17 0.177 0.184

11 0.127 0.133 0.14 0.147 0.154 0.161 0.168 0.176

12 0.119 0.126 0.133 0.14 0.147 0.154 0.161 0.169

13 0.113 0.12 0.127 0.134 0.141 0.148 0.156 0.163

14 0.108 0.114 0.121 0.128 0.136 0.143 0.151 0.159

15 0.103 0.11 0.117 0.124 0.131 0.139 0.147 0.155

16 0.099 0.106 0.113 0.12 0.128 0.136 0.143 0.151

17 0.095 0.102 0.11 0.117 0.125 0.132 0.14 0.149

18 0.092 0.099 0.107 0.114 0.122 0.13 0.138 0.146

Page 25: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Step 3. Convert to “Like Terms”Step 3. Convert to “Like Terms”• Convert to Dollars (If Possible)• Same Units and Time Period• $/Unit/Year

CostsCostsChicken Expenses $8,030/YearChicken Coop $10,000/Building7% Interest, 10 Years = .142 * $10,000 = $1,420/Year

BenefitsBenefitsChicken Income $9,000/YearFertilizer $300/YearFresh Eggs/Meat at Home

$500/Year

------------------------------

Page 26: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Net Benefit: $350/Year

Step 4. Compare Costs & BenefitsStep 4. Compare Costs & Benefits

CostsCostsChicken Expenses $8,030/YearChicken Coop $1,420/Year

$9,450/Year

BenefitsBenefitsChicken Income $9,000/YearFertilizer $300/YearFresh Eggs/Meat at Home $500/Year

$9,800/Year

Page 27: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Partial Budgeting

Page 28: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Partial BudgetingPartial Budgeting

Systematically displays the Benefits and CostsSystematically displays the Benefits and Costs Only “things that change” are consideredOnly “things that change” are considered Simplifies data collectionSimplifies data collection Use a “T” chart to display the “effects”Use a “T” chart to display the “effects”

Page 29: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Raise ChickensChicken Coop $10,000/BuildingChicken Expenses $8,030/YearNumber of Birds 600/YearBird Sale Weight 6 Lbs/BirdBird Value $2.50/LbPounds Chicken Litter 6 Ton/YearValue of Chicken Manure $50/TonEggs/Meat for Home Use $500Discount Rate 7%Time Period 10 YearsTime Managing ChickensPasture Land out of ProductionIncrease in Chicken PredatorsIncrease RiskKid Employment

“T” Chart Example“T” Chart Example PROBLEMSFarm Profitability

SOLUTIONRaise Chickens

Page 30: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

“T” Chart“T” Chart

Level I Qualitative Statements Level II Units of Measurement, Dollars Level III Economic and Financial Analysis

Page 31: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

TREATMENT EFFECTS INFORMATION

NAME/LOCATION – Hal Gordon, Rocking Raindrop Ranch, Aloha, OregonDATE – 7/12/2004

ALTERNATIVE:Build chicken coopSell chicken to local shops

BENCHMARK:Small hobby farm:1-Ac garden, 2-Acs woodlot 5-Acs pastureSmall green houseLooking for on-farm income opportunities

“+” POSITIVE EFFECTS (Benefits) “-” NEGATIVE EFFECTS (Costs)

Chicken Income

Fertilizer for green house & garden

Job/experience for kids

Fresh eggs/meat at home

Chicken Coop

Chicken Expenses

Time managing chickens

Less pasture land

Risk of chicken predation

Level I

Page 32: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Level II

TREATMENT EFFECTS INFORMATION

NAME/LOCATION – Hal Gordon, Rocking Raindrop Ranch, Aloha, OregonDATE – 7/12/2004

ALTERNATIVE:Build chicken coopSell chicken to local shops

BENCHMARK:Small hobby farm:1-Ac garden, 2-Acs woodlot 5-Acs pastureSmall green houseLooking for on-farm income opportunities

“+” POSITIVE EFFECTS (Benefits) “-” NEGATIVE EFFECTS (Costs)

Chicken Income = $9,000/Year

Fertilizer for green house & garden

6 ton chicken litter @ $50/ton = $300/Year

Job/experience for kids

Fresh eggs/meat at home = $500/Year

Chicken Coop = $10,000/Building

Chicken Expenses = $8,030/Year

Time managing chickens

Less pasture land

Risk of chicken predation

Page 33: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Level III

TREATMENT EFFECTS INFORMATION

NAME/LOCATION – Hal Gordon, Rocking Raindrop Ranch, Aloha, OregonDATE – 7/12/2004

ALTERNATIVE:Build chicken coopSell chicken to local shops

BENCHMARK:Small hobby farm:1-Ac garden, 2-Acs woodlot 5-Acs pastureSmall green houseLooking for on-farm income opportunities

“+” POSITIVE EFFECTS (Benefits) “-” NEGATIVE EFFECTS (Costs)

Chicken Income = $9,000/Year

Fertilizer for green house & garden

6 ton chicken litter @ $50/ton = $300/Year

Job/experience for kids

Fresh eggs/meat at home = $500/Year

Total Benefits = $9,800/Year

Chicken Coop = $10,000 *.142 = $1,420/Year (7% Interest, 10 Years = .142 Amortization)

Chicken Expenses = $8,030/Year

Time managing chickens

Less pasture land

Risk of chicken predation

Total Costs = $9,450/Year

Net Income = $350/Year

Page 34: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Investment Analysis(Time Value of Money)

Page 35: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Time Value of MoneyTime Value of Money

Total installation costTotal installation cost Annual benefitsAnnual benefits The loan paymentsThe loan payments Years to “break-even”Years to “break-even” Rate of return on investmentRate of return on investment Etc.Etc.

Investors Want to Know:

Page 36: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Time Value of MoneyTime Value of Money

““Value” depends on when you receive Value” depends on when you receive somethingsomething

We prefer $100 today over $100 next yearWe prefer $100 today over $100 next year Invest and receive “interest”Invest and receive “interest” May not get $100 next yearMay not get $100 next year

““A bird in the hand is A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”worth two in the bush”

Page 37: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Time Value of MoneyTime Value of Money

Time Period Time Period (Years)(Years)

Discount Rate Discount Rate (%)(%)

Present Value Present Value ($)($)

Future Value Future Value ($)($)

Payment Payment ($)($)

Page 38: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Time Value of MoneyTime Value of Money

Money has a time value attached to itMoney has a time value attached to it $1 today = $1 $1 today = $1 + interest+ interest tomorrow tomorrow Comparison of $ today to $ futureComparison of $ today to $ future Useful to compare $ in different time periods Useful to compare $ in different time periods Use amortization and discountingUse amortization and discounting

Page 39: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

$

Years

Years

$

Years

$

Present Value• One-time value• Today• Installation Cost

Annuity• Average annual values• Annual costs• Annual benefits• O&M costs

Future Value• One-time value• In the Future• Replacement cost

Page 40: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

AmortizationAmortization

The payment to pay off a loanThe payment to pay off a loan Spread the cost of an investment over it’s lifeSpread the cost of an investment over it’s life ““Periodic” can be in years, quarters, monthsPeriodic” can be in years, quarters, months

Page 41: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Amortization ExampleAmortization Example

Used TruckTime Period 10 Years

Discount Rate 5 Percent

Present Value $5,000

Payment ?

Page 42: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

AVERAGE ANNUAL COST TABLE

PER $ OF INSTALLATION COST

LIFE % INTEREST RATE

YEARS 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2 0.538 0.553 0.561 0.568 0.576 0.584 0.592 0.599

3 0.367 0.381 0.388 0.395 0.402 0.409 0.416 0.424

4 0.282 0.295 0.302 0.309 0.315 0.322 0.329 0.336

5 0.231 0.244 0.25 0.257 0.264 0.271 0.277 0.284

6 0.197 0.21 0.216 0.223 0.23 0.236 0.243 0.25

7 0.173 0.186 0.192 0.199 0.205 0.212 0.219 0.226

8 0.155 0.167 0.174 0.181 0.187 0.194 0.201 0.208

9 0.141 0.153 0.16 0.167 0.174 0.181 0.188 0.195

10 0.130 0.142 0.149 0.156 0.163 0.17 0.177 0.184

11 0.120 0.133 0.14 0.147 0.154 0.161 0.168 0.176

12 0.113 0.126 0.133 0.14 0.147 0.154 0.161 0.169

13 0.106 0.113 0.127 0.134 0.141 0.148 0.156 0.163

14 0.101 0.114 0.121 0.128 0.136 0.143 0.151 0.159

15 0.096 0.11 0.117 0.124 0.131 0.139 0.147 0.155

16 0.092 0.106 0.113 0.12 0.128 0.136 0.143 0.151

17 0.089 0.102 0.11 0.117 0.125 0.132 0.14 0.149

18 0.086 0.099 0.107 0.114 0.122 0.13 0.138 0.146

Page 43: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Amortization ExampleAmortization ExampleUsed TruckTime Period 10 Years

Discount Rate 8 Percent

Present Value $5,000

Payment $650/Year

(.130 X $5,000)

Present X Amortization = PaymentValue Factor (i, Yrs)

Page 44: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

$750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750

-$5,000

-$6,000

-$5,000

-$4,000

-$3,000

-$2,000

-$1,000

$0

$1,000

$2,000

Years

Do

llars

One-Time Cost and Annual BenefitsHow do you compare costs and benefits over different time periods?

$5,000 farm improvement creates $750/Year income benefit

Page 45: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

-$5,000

-$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648

-$6,000

-$5,000

-$4,000

-$3,000

-$2,000

-$1,000

$0

Years

Do

llars

Amortize the One-Time Cost$5,000 One Time Cost = $648 Annual Cost (10-Year, 5% Interest)

Page 46: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

$750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750

-$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648

-$5,000

-$6,000

-$5,000

-$4,000

-$3,000

-$2,000

-$1,000

$0

$1,000

$2,000

Years

Do

llars

Compare Annual Benefits to Annual CostsThe Annual Benefits are Greater than the Annual Costs

$750 Benefit - $648 Cost = +$102/Year

Page 47: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

DiscountingDiscounting

Converts future values to a one-time present valueConverts future values to a one-time present value Present value is the value today, here and nowPresent value is the value today, here and now Net Present Value analysisNet Present Value analysis

Page 48: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

$5,791

$750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750

-$5,000-$6,000

-$4,000

-$2,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

Years

Do

llars

Compared One Time Cost to One Time BenefitDiscount $750 Annual Benefit to $5,791 Present Value (10-Year, 5% Interest)

$5,791 Benefit > $5,000 Cost

Page 49: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

-$6,959

-$2,500

$5,791

$750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750

-$8,000

-$6,000

-$4,000

-$2,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

Years

Do

llars

Compare “One Time” and “Future One-Time” Costs to One Time Benefit

Discount $2,500 Cost to $1,959 Present Value (5-Year, 5% Interest)$5,000 + $1,959 = $6,959

Page 50: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Discount RateDiscount Rate

Interest rate to borrow moneyInterest rate to borrow money Bank, credit union, family loan, etcBank, credit union, family loan, etc Federal project discount rateFederal project discount rate Includes risk and inflationIncludes risk and inflation

Page 51: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Break Even Analysis

Page 52: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Break-Even AnalysisBreak-Even Analysis

Solve forSolve for:: ““How much can I afford”How much can I afford” ““How long to get my money back”How long to get my money back” ““Return on the investment”Return on the investment”

Page 53: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Present Value = $10,000 (Build New Chicken Coop)

Payment = $1,770 (Net Income)

Interest Rate = 7%

Present Value X Amortization Factor (i, Yrs) = Payment

Amortization Factor (i, Yrs) = Payment / Present Value

Amortization Factor (i, Yrs) = $1,770 / $10,000 = .177See Amortization Chart at 7% and intersection .177 = 7.5 Years

How many years to break-even on my chicken coop?

Page 54: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

AVERAGE ANNUAL COST TABLE

PER $ OF INSTALLATION COST

LIFE % INTEREST RATE

YEARS 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2 0.545 0.553 0.561 0.568 0.576 0.584 0.592 0.599

3 0.374 0.381 0.388 0.395 0.402 0.409 0.416 0.424

4 0.289 0.295 0.302 0.309 0.315 0.322 0.329 0.336

5 0.237 0.244 0.25 0.257 0.264 0.271 0.277 0.284

6 0.203 0.21 0.216 0.223 0.23 0.236 0.243 0.25

7 0.179 0.186 0.192 0.199 0.205 0.212 0.219 0.226

8 0.161 0.167 0.174 0.181 0.187 0.194 0.201 0.208

9 0.147 0.153 0.16 0.167 0.174 0.181 0.188 0.195

10 0.136 0.142 0.149 0.156 0.163 0.17 0.177 0.184

11 0.127 0.133 0.14 0.147 0.154 0.161 0.168 0.176

12 0.119 0.126 0.133 0.14 0.147 0.154 0.161 0.169

13 0.113 0.113 0.127 0.134 0.141 0.148 0.156 0.163

14 0.108 0.114 0.121 0.128 0.136 0.143 0.151 0.159

15 0.103 0.11 0.117 0.124 0.131 0.139 0.147 0.155

16 0.099 0.106 0.113 0.12 0.128 0.136 0.143 0.151

17 0.095 0.102 0.11 0.117 0.125 0.132 0.14 0.149

18 0.092 0.099 0.107 0.114 0.122 0.13 0.138 0.146

Page 55: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Present Value = $10,000 (Build New Chicken Coop)

Payment = $1,770 (Net Income)

Years = 10

Present Value X Amortization Factor (i, Yrs) = Payment

Amortization Factor (i, Yrs) = Payment / Present Value

Amortization Factor (i, Yrs) = $1,770 / $10,000 = .177See Amortization Chart at 10 Yrs and intersection .177 = 12%

Return on investment (i%) on my chicken coop?

Page 56: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

AVERAGE ANNUAL COST TABLE

PER $ OF INSTALLATION COST

LIFE % INTEREST RATE

YEARS 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2 0.545 0.553 0.561 0.568 0.576 0.584 0.592 0.599

3 0.374 0.381 0.388 0.395 0.402 0.409 0.416 0.424

4 0.289 0.295 0.302 0.309 0.315 0.322 0.329 0.336

5 0.237 0.244 0.250 0.257 0.264 0.271 0.277 0.284

6 0.203 0.21 0.216 0.223 0.23 0.236 0.243 0.25

7 0.179 0.186 0.192 0.199 0.205 0.212 0.219 0.226

8 0.161 0.167 0.174 0.181 0.187 0.194 0.201 0.208

9 0.147 0.153 0.16 0.167 0.174 0.181 0.188 0.195

10 0.136 0.142 0.149 0.156 0.163 0.17 0.177 0.184

11 0.127 0.133 0.14 0.147 0.154 0.161 0.168 0.176

12 0.119 0.126 0.133 0.14 0.147 0.154 0.161 0.169

13 0.113 0.113 0.127 0.134 0.141 0.148 0.156 0.163

14 0.108 0.114 0.121 0.128 0.136 0.143 0.151 0.159

15 0.103 0.11 0.117 0.124 0.131 0.139 0.147 0.155

16 0.099 0.106 0.113 0.12 0.128 0.136 0.143 0.151

17 0.095 0.102 0.11 0.117 0.125 0.132 0.14 0.149

18 0.092 0.099 0.107 0.114 0.122 0.13 0.138 0.146

Page 57: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Present Value = $10,000 (Build New Chicken Coop)

Interest Rate = 8%

Years = 5

Present Value X Amortization Factor (i, Yrs) = Payment

Amortization Factor (8%, 5 Yrs) = .250$10,000 * .250 = $2,500/Year

Net income required ($/year) to pay off chicken coop in 5 years at 8%?

Page 58: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Payment = $1,000

Interest Rate = 8%

Years = 5

Present Value X Amortization Factor (i, Yrs) = Payment

Present Value = Payment / Amortization Factor (i, Yrs)

Amortization Factor (8%, 5 Yrs) = .250$1,000/Year / .250 = $4,000

How much can I afford to spend today if my net income is $1,000/year, over 5 years at 8%?

Page 59: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Financial versus Economic Analysis

Page 60: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Financial Analysis vs. Economic AnalysisFinancial Analysis vs. Economic Analysis

Economic analysis:Economic analysis: Is it Profitable?Is it Profitable? Compare benefits & costs over the Compare benefits & costs over the project's lifeproject's life

Financial analysis:Financial analysis: Is it Affordable?Is it Affordable? Compare benefits & costs over the Compare benefits & costs over the loan periodloan period

Page 61: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

-$5,000

-$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648 -$648

$5,791

$750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750

-$6,000

-$4,000

-$2,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

Years

Do

llars

-$5,000

-$1,155 -$1,155 -$1,155 -$1,155 -$1,155

$5,791

$750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750

-$6,000

-$4,000

-$2,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

Years

Do

llars

Economic Analysis: PV $5,000 = $648 Annual Cost (10-Year, 5%)

Financial Analysis: PV $5,000 = $1,155 Annual Cost (5-Year, 5%)

Page 62: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Interest and Annuity Tables

Interest and Annuity Tables

Page 63: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Future Value of OneFuture Value of One

?

Time

Dollars

$

If I invest $100 to day, how much will I have in 20 Years at 4%?

2.191 * $100 = $219.10

Page 64: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Present Value of OnePresent Value of One

Time

Dollars

?

$

If I get $1,000 in 5-Years, what is that worth today at 6%?

.747 * $1,000 = $747.00

Page 65: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Future Value of an Annuity of OneFuture Value of an Annuity of One

Time

Dollars

?

$ $ $ $ $

If I invest $5,000 each year for 20 years, how much will I have at 6%?

36.786 * $5,000 = $183,930

Page 66: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Amount of an Annuity for Future ValueAmount of an Annuity for Future Value

Time

Dollars$

? ? ? ? ?

If I get $50,000 in 15 years, how much could I have received each year at 8%?

.037 * $50,000 = $1,850/Year

Page 67: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Present Value of Annuity of OnePresent Value of Annuity of One

Time

Dollars

?

$ $ $ $ $

If I get $2,500 each year for 10 years, what is that worth today at 10%?

6.145 * $2,500 = $15,362

Page 68: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Amount of Annuity for a Present ValueAmount of Annuity for a Present Value

Time

Dollars$

? ????

If I get $100,000 today, how much can I spend each year for the next 20 years at 10%?

.102 * $100,000 = $10,200/Year

Page 69: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Economic DataEconomic DataIt is more important to know “where” to get economic data, than It is more important to know “where” to get economic data, than

to “have” economic data, economic data is only good “today”to “have” economic data, economic data is only good “today”

NRCS Economic Tools Website:

http://www.economics.nrcs.usda.gov/

State Information – Alaska:University of Alaska, Department of Resources Management Alaska Cooperative Extension Service Extension Service Agriculture and Natural Resources publications University of Alaska, Anchorage, Resources/Environment Publications University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Research Resources Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Agriculture Alaska Agricultural Statistics Service - USDA NRCS Alaska State Office Field Office Technical Guide (eFOTG)

Page 70: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

The EndThe End

Page 71: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Class Exercise

Page 72: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

Pasture Improvement

Brush Control $50/Acre

Reseed Pasture $65/Acre

Discount Rate 7%

Time Period 10 Years

Weed Control $15/Acre/Year

Forage Increase 3 AUMs/Acre/Year

Forage Value $12/AUM

Forage Quality Improvement

Migratory Spring Goose Habitat/Grazing

Reduced Erosion (2 Tons)

Water Quality Improvement

“T” Chart Example“T” Chart ExamplePROBLEMS

Plant Productivity, Erosion, Profitability

SOLUTIONPasture Seeding, Brush

& Weed Control

Page 73: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

CONSERVATION TREATMENT EFFECTSINFORMATION

NAME – LOCATION – DATE –

SETTING –

CONSERVATION TREATMENT: RESOURCE PROBLEMS:

POSITIVE EFFECTS (Benefits) NEGATIVE EFFECTS (Costs)

Class Exercise: “T” Chart

Page 74: Hal Gordon Natural Resources Conservation Service West National Technical Service Center Portland, Oregon.

CONSERVATION TREATMENT EFFECTS INFORMATION

NAME – H. Gordon, Rocking Raindrop LOCATION – Aloha, Oregon DATE – 7/12/2004CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT UNIT – Pasture, Willamette Valley, Oregon

CONSERVATION TREATMENT:Pasture Seeding, Brush & Weed Control

RESOURCE PROBLEMS:Plant Productivity, Erosion, Profitability

“+” POSITIVE EFFECTS (Benefits) “-” NEGATIVE EFFECTS (Costs)

Forage Quality ImprovementReduced Erosion, 2 Tons/Acre

Water Quality Improvement

Goose Habitat Improves Bird Watching

Forage Increase

3 AUMs Year X $12/AUM = $36/Ac/Year

Total Benefits = $36/Ac/Year

Goose Habitat Increases Trespassing

Brush Control $50/Acre

Reseed Pasture $65/Acre

$115/Acre

7% Interest, 10 Years = .142 X $115 = $16.33

Annual Installation Cost = $16.33/Acre/Year

Weed Control $15.00/Acre/Year

Total Costs = $31.33/Acre/Year

“T” Chart