Creating Robust Business Models:

Business model stress testing

Timber Haaker (timber.haaker@novay.nl)

3de H-lab The Future Now’, 3 juli 2013

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Those who can’t adapt disappear

..no need to know the future, but to be prepared for it..

Creating Robust Business Models

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Voorbeeld STOF beschrijving Playlist tv

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Service design: business model variables Description

Customers and/or end-users C: Tv kijker

Value proposition

Auto aggregatie (zelf en automatisch)Community buildingVerrijking

Service offering

Persoonlijke keuze kunnen makenBeperkte keuzestressHigh quality contentNooit meer niets op TV

Context of use Any time Any where

Technology design: business model variables

Technical functionality Content is digitaal beschikbaarContent is afspeelbaar Device onafhankelijk

Applications integratie van Social Media

Mogelijkheid tot delenOrganization design: business model variables

Actors Omroepen, mediaproducenten, kabelaars, internetpartijen

Actor’s resources and capabilities Content aanleveren en gebruiksklaar makenFinancial design: business model variables

Costs Ontwikkeling

Revenues Producenten, Advertenties

Pay per view (?)

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Business Model Succes

Realiseerbaarheid

Levensvatbaarheid

Robuustheid

Business model testen

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Heat SignatureService design : business model variables

Customers and/or end-usersTarget group (primary; secondary)Value propositionService offeringContext of useEffort for the customerCustomer relationships

Technology design : business model variablesApplicationsDevicesService platformsChannelsAdditional functionalities

Organization design : business model variablesActorsActors' resources & capabilitiesActors' strategic interestsOrganizational ArrangementsValue activities

Financial design : business model variablesInvestmentsCostsRevenuesRisksFinancial arrangements

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Bu

sin

ess

mo

del

StressTest Heat Signature

Viable and feasible business model

Service design : business model variablesCustomers and/or end-usersTarget group (primary; secondary)Value propositionService offeringContext of useEffort for the customerCustomer relationships

Technology design : business model variablesApplicationsDevicesService platformsChannelsAdditional functionalities

Organization design : business model variablesActorsActors' resources & capabilitiesActors' strategic interestsOrganizational ArrangementsValue activities

Financial design : business model variablesInvestmentsCostsRevenuesRisksFinancial arrangements

Success Factors

Succesfa ctoren

Toekomstscen a r i os

Eva lua ti e i n d i ca toren

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Business model stress test met succesfactoren

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Create heat signature

Confront Business Model with factors

Select success factors

Describe Business Model

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Bu

sin

ess

mo

del

StressTest Heat Signature

viable and robust business model

Service design : business model variablesCustomers and/or end-usersTarget group (primary; secondary)Value propositionService offeringContext of useEffort for the customerCustomer relationships

Technology design : business model variablesApplicationsDevicesService platformsChannelsAdditional functionalities

Organization design : business model variablesActorsActors' resources & capabilitiesActors' strategic interestsOrganizational ArrangementsValue activities

Financial design : business model variablesInvestmentsCostsRevenuesRisksFinancial arrangements

Future

Succesfa ctoren

Toekomstscen a r i os

Eva lua ti e i n d i ca toren

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Business model stress test met onzekerheden (scenarios)

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Create heat signature

Map Business Model to uncertainties

Select uncertainties

Describe Business Model

Geïntegreerdecosysteem

GescheidenEcosysteem

Positie van mediaconsumptie

• Omroepen• Mobile operators• Kabelaars• Electronica giganten

• In concurrentie met zichzelf• Op één van de kanalen

• Concurrentie met rest• Begeleiding kijker naar content• integratie zorgt voor concurentie

• Platform onafhankelijk• Distributie via internet• In concurrentie met al het

andere op alle kanalen

Black box Zuilen

Modista TV Yes we can

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Select uncertainties

• High capture, many new entrants• Low Capture, incumbents rule

Market capture for new entrants

• Conservative• Progressive

Regulatory flexibility

• Chinese walls• Commercial use

Personal data and privacy

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Create Heat Signature

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Low market capture

High market capture

Conservative, inflexible, discourages change

Progressive, flexible, encourages change

“Chinese Walls” for customerdata, limited data availability

Extensive commercial use of customer records, people at ease to release personal data

Service design : business model variablesCustomers and/or end-usersTarget group (primary; secondary)Value propositionService offeringContext of useEffort for the customerCustomer relationships

Technology design : business model variablesApplicationsDevicesService platformsChannelsAdditional functionalities

Organization design : business model variablesActorsActors' resources & capabilitiesActors' strategic interestsOrganizational ArrangementsValue activities

Financial design : business model variablesInvestmentsCostsRevenuesRisksFinancial arrangements

New entrants into FS Regulatory flexibility on new players and new business

Personal data and privacy issues

Double red anomaly

Alternating colors

Double green daisy

Favourable futures

Tooling

Stress test tooling based on STOF and CANVAS

business model description

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Input for stress test

Mapping and heat signature

Analysis and subviews

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Android: tinyurl.com/d4z3tz5Apple/iOS: tinyurl.com/cea2rdc

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Take away

• Stress testen van business modellen::• …geeft inzicht in de sterke en zwakke elementen van je

business model

• ...leidt tot communiceerbare aanbevelingen

• ...vormt de basis voor ontwikkelen van een business

model roadmap

• …biedt een aanpak voor ‘shared understanding’

• Inzetten in de analyse fase van service engineering

• Handboek, Excel tool en App beschikbaar om proces

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Contact

Timber Haaker

Principal advisor

timber.haaker@novay.nl

T: 053 485 03 48

m: 06 511 982 80

@timberhaaker

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