August 30, 2018

GWSA IAC Meeting

MA Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Sharon Weber, MassDEP

2

Primer: GHGs, GWPs, MMTCO2e

The individual gases that contribute to total greenhouse gas

(GHG) emissions in the MA GHG Inventory include:

o carbon dioxide (CO2),

o methane (CH4),

o nitrous oxide (N2O),

o sulfur hexafluoride (SF6),

o hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and

o perfluorocarbons (PFCs).

Primer: GHGs, GWPs, MMTCO2e

Not all GHGs have the same heat-trapping capacity. For

example, one ton of methane (CH4) is equivalent to greater

than 20 tons of CO2 with respect to their heat trapping

potentials. A standard, known as the global warming

potential (GWP), relates the heat trapping potential of

each GHG to an equivalent quantity of CO2 over a given

time horizon. Emissions are in units of million metric

tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCO2e).

Primer: GHGs, GWPs, MMTCO2e Current 100-year GWPs from IPCC AR4

Therefore:

o 1 million metric tons of CO2 = 1 MMTCO2e

o 1 million metric tons of CH4 = 25 MMTCO2e

GHG GWP

carbon dioxide (CO2) 1

methane (CH4) 25

nitrous oxide (N2O) 298

sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) 22,800

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and

perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

124 to 17,700

MA GHG Inventory

(complete through 2015)

92.7

70.8

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Ton

s o

f CO

2eq

uiv

alen

t

Massachusetts GHG Emissions

Actual EmissionsProjected Emissions

2020 Limit

76.3

MA GHG Inventory divided by Sectors

11/10/2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mil

lio

n M

etric

To

ns o

f C

O2

eq

uiv

ale

nt

Massachusetts GHG Emissions from Fuel Combustion(by Sector)

Transportation

Electricity Consumption

Residential

Commercial

Industrial (Fuel)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mil

lio

n M

etric

To

ns o

f C

O2

eq

uiv

ale

nt

Massachusetts GHG Non-Fuel Combustion Emissions (by Sector)

Agriculture & Land Use

Waste (Landfill & Wastewater)

Natural Gas Systems

Industrial (Process)

MA GHG Inventory

87.4%

2.4%

0.8%5.2% 4.1%

2015 MA GHG EmissionsCO2

CH4

N2O

SF6 & OtherGHG Gases

ImportedElectric Power(CO2, CH4 &N2O combined)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

All GHGs(MMTCO2e)

CO2

CH4

N2O

SF6 &Other GHGGases

1990 and 2015 GHG Emissions by

sector

16.2%

8.9%

6.1%

29.9%

32.3%

2.6%0.8%

0.4% 2.9%

% of 1990 94.4 MMTCO2e GHG Emissions by Sector

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

ElectricityConsumptionMobile Combustion

Natural Gas Systems

Industrial Processes

Agriculture & Land Use

Waste

18.0%

10.0%

4.8%

20.5%

38.9%

1.0%

5.5%

0.3% 1.1%

% of 2015 76.3 MMTCO2e GHG Emissions by Sector

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

ElectricityConsumptionMobile Combustion

Natural Gas Systems

Industrial Processes

Agriculture & Land Use

Waste

MA GHG Inventory Trends: Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

90

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

CO2 (MMTCO2e)

Agriculture & Land Use

Solid Waste (MunicipalWaste Combustion)

Industrial Processes

Electric Power

Transportation

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

MA GHG Inventory Trends: Methane (CH4)

0

1

2

3

4

5

619

90

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

CH4 (MMTCO2e)Wastewater

Solid Waste (Landfill)

Agriculture & Land Use

Natural Gas Systems(Leaks)Transportation

Solid Waste (MunicipalWaste Combustion)Electric Power

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

MA GHG Inventory Trends: Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.519

90

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

N2O (MMTCO2e)

Wastewater

Agriculture & Land Use

Transportation

Solid Waste (Landfill)

Solid Waste (MunicipalWaste Combustion)

Electric Power

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

MA GHG Inventory Trends: Sulfur hexaflouride (SF6),

hydroflourocarbons (HFCs) and perflourocarbons (PFCs)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

SF6 & Other GHGs(MMTCO2e)

Electric PowerTransmission andDistribution Systems

SemiconductorManufacturing

ODS Substitutes

DATA SOURCES

US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

State Energy Data System (SEDS) annual data

Annual Survey Form EIA-923 (utility) and (older, non-utility)

EIA-867 combustion data

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

State Greenhouse Gas Inventory Tool (SGIT) modules

GHG Facility Reporting Program (beginning 2010)

MassDEP

GHG Facility Reporting Program (2010-2015)

Website links

MA GHG Inventory

MA CECP for 2020

Electricity Projections:

Reference Case

Benjamin Miller, EEA

16

Reference Case

17

Reference Case is a scenario consisting of only existing policies

Aims to answer: Without new policies, what will GHG emissions in MA be like in 2050?

Includes some global assumptions about ongoing non-policy trends, some examples:

Decrease in annual HDDs as the climate warms.

Gradual changes in housing stock as population grows and new housing units are built.

Ongoing macro-level trends in energy demand and consumption But no direct policy-driven changes, except what is already established.

LEAP: A quick primer

18

Not a model – an energy accounting tool

Variables, data, assumptions, and computations

are kept in open-source transparent manner.

Sums up demand across a tree-like structure

Can get very complicated very fast.

Lots of places for inputs and interactions.

“Transformation” spins up energy supply

module to meet demand.

Time-slicing available to model energy demand on an

hourly basis, but, for now, annual consumption is fine.

Major Demand Drivers (Reference)

19

Sector Category Reference Assumptions

Residential

Overall demand Driven by population & housing growth; some baseline energy intensity assumptions

for housing stocks.

Space heating, direct

electric All forecasted growth converted to heat pump.

Space heating, heat pumps Linear forecast (25% penetration by 2050)

Secondary space heating Insignificant use of cooling-sized heat pumps for partial space heating load.

Lighting 100% energy efficient bulbs by 2030.

Refrigeration 100% EnergyStar certified by 2030.

Air conditioning Expansion of both central air and heat pumps.

Water heating Increases modestly.

Commercial

Electric space heating Increases modestly.

Electric water heating,

cooking, and miscellaneous Increases modestly.

Electric appliances Exponential forecast computed historical trend of demand growth

Refrigeration Linear forecast (increases).

Industrial Electricity Remains constant from 2015 levels

Transportation EV adoption Follows LEV regulations through 2025, reaching 160,000 by 2025 before growth slows,

only reaching about 1 million vehicles by 2050.

Sample Reference Outputs

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ele

ctr

icity D

em

an

d (

TW

h)

Commercial Electricity Demand

Refrigeration

Electric Appliances

Miscellaneous

Cooking

Water Heating

Space Cooling

Space Heating

Illustrative to show the IAC how

the bottom up model produces

electricity demand outputs

Sample Reference Outputs

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ele

ctr

icity D

em

an

d (

TW

h)

Massachusetts Electricity Demand

Industrial

Commercial

Transportation

Residential

Illustrative to show the IAC how

the bottom up model produces

electricity demand outputs

LEAP: Electricity Sector Dispatch

22

Electricity sources programmed in with nameplate capacities, average availabilities (annual), efficiency factors, etc.

Electricity dispatched to according to a merit order.

Imports set with an arbitrarily large capacity and fill in any residual needs.

Major Assumptions and Drivers

(Reference Case)

23

RPS Requirement, including new 2% increase from 2020 through 2029, fulfilled.

CES Requirement, now smaller due to RPS increase, fulfilled.

MLPs 14% of production assumed to be exempt from RPS and CES through 2050.

MWCs Generation remains at 2015 levels.

Coal Retired in 2017.

Nuclear Retired in 2019.

Oil Generation declines as RPS, CES increase, cap-and-trade limits decrease.

Natural

gas Generation declines as RPS, CES increase, cap-and-trade limits decrease.

83c 1600 MW, phased in over the 2020s, entirely subsumed by RPS requirements.

83d 9.5 TWh switch flipped on in 2023; partially subsumed by CES requirement, but

some extra production logged in the 2020s and 2030s.

Imports

Takes up any residual demand not met by in-state production. Bulk emissions

factor assigned based on projected import mix, individual EFs remain unchanged

from present values.

Projected Generation (Reference)

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ele

ctr

icity G

en

era

tion

(T

Wh

)

MSW in MA

Coal in MA

Oil in MA

Natural Gas in MA

Nuclear in MA

Non-RPS Renewables

Imports

Extra 83d

CES

RPS

Historical & Projected Imports

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Imp

ort

ed E

lectr

icity (

TW

h) Maine

New Hampshire

Vermont

Connecticut

Rhode Island

New York

New Brunswick

Quebec

Historical Imported EFs

26

-

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Em

issio

n F

acto

r (M

TC

O2

e p

er

MW

h)

New Brunswick

New York

Rhode Island

Connecticut

New Hampshire

Maine

Quebec

Vermont

Projected Electricity Sector Emissions

(Reference)

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns (

MM

TC

O2

e)

MSW in MA

Coal in MA

Oil in MA

Natural Gas in MA

Imports

Renewables

Deliberative Policy Document

Creating a Clean, Affordable and Resilient Energy Future for the Commonwealth

Comprehensive Energy Plan

Updates to IAC

August 30, 2018

Deliberative Policy Document

Overview of Stakeholder Process • Three Meetings

– Boston on July 17, – Westborough on July 18, and – Westfield on July 19

• Introduction to the goals and process of the CEP

– “Commonwealth’s energy demands for electricity, transportation, and thermal conditioning”

– “strategies for meeting these demands in a regional context”

• Feedback from stakeholders on – Assumptions about supply and demand drivers included in the CEP

modeling – Challenges and possible policy pathways

• DOER received 76 written comments, reviewed for report

• Leading into the 2030 CECP and 80 x 50 Study

29

Deliberative Policy Document

Overview of Scenarios

• Modeling Assumptions

– Project different possibilities for Massachusetts’ energy future through modeling

– Analyzing multiple scenarios to understand how different policies drive differences in costs, reliability, and emissions

• Key Levers

– Efficiency – Renewables – Electrification (electric vehicles, heat pumps)

• Key Differences from LEAP Analysis

– 2030 vs. 2050 – True electric sector modeling – Market costs – Updates from new legislation

30

Deliberative Policy Document

Modeling

• Electric Sector

– Synapse and the Encompass Model

• Production-cost and capacity-expansion model

• Includes costs, scheduling, environmental compliance, etc.

• Unit-specific and regional

– Renewable Energy Market Outlook model and Sustainable Energy Advantage

• Scenario-specific renewable energy build-outs

• Renewable energy certificate (REC) and clean energy certificate (CEC) price forecasts

31

Deliberative Policy Document

Modeling

• Thermal and Transportation Sector

– Synapse and Multi-Sector Emissions Model (M-SEM)

• State-specific information on energy use and emissions in the electric, residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors

• Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) State Energy Data System (AEO) and Annual Energy Outlook 2018

32

Deliberative Policy Document

Building the Sustained Policies Scenario Electric Sector

• Demand – Drivers

• Population and GDP

• Energy efficiency programs and new codes and standards for lighting and appliances

• Electrification

– Assumptions • ISO-NE 2018 CELT Report: projections of annual

electricity sales from 2018 to 2027

• Annual projection of the impacts of energy efficiency

• Current deployment of heat pumps

• 160,000 electric vehicles in MA specifically by 2025

33

Deliberative Policy Document

Building the Sustained Policies Scenario Electric Sector

• Supply

– Pre-2018 Legislation RPS and CES – 1% and 2% increases

– 83D (hydroelectric) and 83C (offshore wind) as filed

– Additional offshore wind in CT and RI

– Additional demand met by the results of the EnCompass modeling

34

Deliberative Policy Document 35

Sustained Policies – New England

80x50 Study

Hong-Hanh Chu, EEA

36

Overview

37

Long-range comprehensive study outlining strategies to achieve 80 percent reductions by 2050.

Tentative scope: 1) 2-6 cross-sectoral scenarios that outline plausible futures for the

Electric, Buildings, Transportation, Land use, and Non-energy sectors in 2050.

2) GWSA compliant emissions reduction pathway for each plausible scenario.

3) Viable suite of recommended policies (including market-based mechanisms and with a specific focus on policy solutions for the Transportation sector) and when to implement them in each plausible scenario.

4) Stakeholder process to gather feedback on potential policies including those impacting freight, land use and zoning, and the low-income and rural communities.

Overview

38

Key Analyses: Energy demand in each sector and across-sectors

Energy supply and cost

Key actors and decision points, strategic transitions

Drivers of price and non-price behavioral change

Indirect benefits and social-economic equity concerns of potential

policies

Main Variables: Technology growth and deployment

Land use development (where people live and work, commercial centers)

Fuel price

Process

39

Connection to existing studies and efforts:

Incorporates results and recommendations from the Comprehensive Energy Plan, Commission on the Future of Transportation, and State Hazard Mitigation and Climate Action Plan.

Connection to Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2030:

Emissions reduction pathways to 2050 in various plausible scenarios could inform what GHG emissions limits the EEA Secretary should set for 2030;

Recommended policies and implementation timeline could inform what policies should be included in the CECP for 2030 that would allow us to achieve the emissions limits in 2030 and put us on a path toward 80% reduction regardless of what scenario we may encounter in 2050.

Process

40

Timeline:

Stakeholder feedback on study scope, today and Fall 2018

RFR or RFQ posted, Winter 2018/2019

Consultants contracted, Winter/Spring 2019

Stakeholder engagement throughout

Study concludes, Summer 2020

IAC involvement:

Feedback on scope of study

Additional feedback as the study progresses

Recommendation of strategies and policies for consideration in the study and CECP for 2030