Guy Rousseau, Modeling Manager, Atlanta Regional Commission Atlanta Travel Forecasting Methods:...
-
Upload
kevin-cooper -
Category
Documents
-
view
224 -
download
3
Transcript of Guy Rousseau, Modeling Manager, Atlanta Regional Commission Atlanta Travel Forecasting Methods:...
Guy Rousseau, Modeling Manager, Atlanta Regional Guy Rousseau, Modeling Manager, Atlanta Regional CommissionCommission
Atlanta Travel Forecasting Methods:
Traditional Trip-Based
&
Activity-Based Model
AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group, Nov. 4, 2010
ARC Model Applications: Using Radar Graphs to Visualize Performance Measures
1Coordinated Travel-Regional Activity-Based Modeling Platform
ARC Activity-Based Modeling System
• Based on the CT-RAMP1 family of ABMs developed in New York, NY, Columbus OH (MORPC) and others
- Explicit intra-household interactions - Continuous temporal dimension (Hourly time periods)- Integration of location, time-of-day, and mode choice models- Java-based package for AB model implementation
• Implemented with the existing Cube-based networks, GUI and ancillary models (external model, truck model, assignments, etc)
• Households: 1.7 million in 2005, 2.7 million in 2030
• Model development parallel effort with MTC
The ARC CT-RAMP Cluster4 8-processor dual-core Dell servers with 32 GB RAM each
ARC Activtiy-Based Model
Hardware and Software Setup
• Three Windows Server 2003 64bit Machines:• Two Dual Quad Core Intel
Xeon X570 2.93 GHz Processors 16 threads
• 32 GB of RAM• Cube Voyager + 8 seat
Cube Cluster license
• Total cost ~ $30,000 in 2009
ARC Activity-Based Model
Hardware and Software Setup
• 64 bit OS for large memory addresses• 64 bit Java for CT-RAMP• 32 bit Java to integrate with Cube’s native matrix I/O DLL• Cube Base for the GUI• Cube Voyager + Cluster for running
the model, assignment, etc• Java CT-RAMP software• 64 bit R for reporting/visualization
ARC’s Activity-Based Model• Provides results similar to 4-step trip based
model• Ok, so then why bother with an ABM?• Because ARC’s ABM provides additional details,
more info about travel patterns & market segments
• ABM allows to answer questions the 4-step model is not capable to provide
• For internal use only, not for official purposes, hence dual/parallel track of models
Synthesized Population: Person Age Share
Trip-Based Model Mode Share Compared to ABM Mode Share
Line Boardings: Trip Based Model Versus ABM
AM SOV Free:Trip Length Frequency Distributions
VMT by Time Period
ARC’s ABM Year 2005 Volume/Count Scatterplot
Line Boardings (Routes > 10,000 Boards)
Station Boardings By Number of Boards
External Model ResultsTBM ABM
2030HOV2HOT 2030HOV2HOTPassenger ODRelation Trips TripsWork IE 390,787 388,150 Non-Work IE 510,557 507,103 Passenger Cars EE 80,219 80,563 TruckTrucks II 2,518,171 2,518,837 Trucks IE 234,545 233,478 Trucks EE 25,573 40,793
What Sort of Performance Measures & Visuals are Possible with an Activity-Based Model?
ABM results in a complete activity diary for all ARC residents
•A wealth of activity/travel results
•Just about any custom report/query/visual is now possible
•Performance Measures also available by Age, Gender & Household Types
Mean Delay, Peak Period Travel
Travelers By Age
Persons Not At Home By TAZ and Hour
Persons By TAZ and Hour
Conclusions
• Overall, the ARC ABM model appears to be displaying appropriate sensitivities when compared to the base year results and the existing trip based model runs.
• Compared with the trip based model run, the ABM required increased prices in the peak periods in order to provide 1600 vphpl performance given the significant amount of toll eligible demand that could use the facilities
• VMT results by time-of-day suggest that the addition of a trip time-of-day departure choice model would help reduce the over predicted night period demand
Potential Improvements
• The population synthesizer works at the household level. Adding more explicit functionality for person level information and controls would be useful.
• The ABM does not have a model to calculate the departure hour for each trip within the tour time window. Adding a model, or simply a distribution of probabilities by tour purpose and hour, would be an improvement
Questions / Comments
Guy Rousseau (404 463-3274) [email protected]
Atlanta Regional Commission
40 Courtland Street, NE
Atlanta, Georgia 30303
www.atlantaregional.com
Acknowledgements: PBS&J, AECOM, Parsons Brinckerhoff, John Bowman, Mark Bradley, Bill Allen