Gun Violence in St. Louis II.pdf

Firearm Violence in St. Louis: Trends, Challenges, Responses

Richard Rosenfeld University of Missouri – St. Louis

Overview •  National and local trends •  The recent increase in gun violence –  St. Louis is not alone –  Ferguson effect? – Neighborhood variation – Drug market expansion?

•  Responses – Hot spot policing –  Focused Deterrence

•  Focus on people-in-places

Trends

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Figure 1. US Homicide Rate per 100,000 Population, 1960-2013

Source: Uniform Crime Reports

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Figure 2. St. Louis and US Homicide Rates per 100,000 Population, 1985 - 2013

St. Louis US


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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Figure 3. St. Louis and Five-City Average Homicide Rate per 100,000 Population, 1985-2013

St. Louis

Five-City Average (Kansas City, Memphis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Cincinnati)

Ratio (StL/5-City Avg. Mean = 2.14 Min = 1.19 Max = 2.76



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Figure 4. St. Louis and Five-City Average Homicide Rate per 100,000 Population, 1985-2013

St. Louis

Five-City Average

The Recent St. Louis Crime Rise Homicides Gun Assaults

2014 159 1844 Chg. +39 +218 % chg. 32.5% 13.4% 2015* 136 1515 Chg. +51 +459 % chg. 60.0% 43.5% *January – August Source: SLMPD

Ferguson Effect?

Michael Brown Killing

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January February March April May June July August September October November December

Monthly Homicides in St. Louis, 2013 - 2014

2014

2013



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Ratio of Monthly Homicides, 2014 v. 2013 !


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1" 3" 5" 7" 9" 11"13"15"17"19"21"23"25"27"29"31"33"35"37"39"41"43"45"47"49"51"53"55"57"59"61"63"65"67"69"71"73"75"77"79"81"83"85"87"89"91"

Change in Homicides in St. Louis Neighborhoods, 2013 - 2014

All N'Hoods (+39) 2013: 120 homicides 2014: 159 homicides

Wells-Goodfellow (+7)

West End (+6)

Carondelet (+4) Jeff Vanderlou (+4) Kingsway East (+4) Lewis Place (+4) Mark Twain (+4) St. Louis Place (+4)

Violent Crime

(Homicide + Aggravated Assault + Robbery + Rape


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Ratio of Monthly Violent Crimes, 2014 v. 2013


Property Crime

(Burglary + Larceny + Motor Vehicle Theft)


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Ratio of Monthly Property Crimes, 2014 v. 2013


Neighborhood Variation in Gun Assault Rise

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1" 3" 5" 7" 9" 11" 13" 15" 17" 19" 21" 23" 25" 27" 29" 31" 33" 35" 37" 39" 41" 43" 45" 47" 49" 51" 53" 55" 57" 59" 61" 63" 65" 67" 69" 71" 73" 75" 77"

Change in Gun Assaults in St. Louis Neighborhoods, 2014 2015 (January - August)

O'Fallon Greater Ville

LaSalle Marine Villa

O'Fallon 37The-Greater-Ville 33Downtown 28Tower-Grove-East 28Gravois-Park 26Wells>Goodfellow 25Dutchtown 23Kingsway-West 22West-End 20Baden 19Hamilton-Heights 18Jeff-Vanderlou 16Lewis-Place 15Benton-Park-West 14Academy 12Downtown-West 12Midtown 11Old-North-St.-Louis 11Fairground 10Hyde-Park 10Kingsway-East 9Kosciusko 9McKinley-Heights 9Peabody>Darst>Webbe 9St.-Louis-Place 9

Skinker'DeBaliviere 8Walnut1Park1West 8Fountain1Park 7The1Gate1District 7Columbus1Square 6Patch 6Walnut1Park1East 6Lindenwood1Park 5Vandeventer 5North1Hampton 4The1Ville 4Ellendale 3Lafayette1Square 3North1Point 3Benton1Park 2Forest1Park1SE 2Franz1Park 2Holly1Hills 2North1Riverfront 2Southwest1Garden 2Botanical1Heights 1Clifton1Heights 1Covenant'Blu/Grand1Ctr 1Kings1Oak 1St.1Louis1Hills 1Bevo1Mill 0






Compton'Heights 0Mark'Twain 0Shaw 0Tiffany 0Wydown:Skinker 0Boulevard'Heights :1Carondelet :1Clayton:Tamm :1Hi:Point :1Near'N.'Riverfront :1Riverview :1South'Hampton :1Tower'Grove'South :1Mark'Twain'I:70'Ind. :2The'Hill :2Central'West'End :3Cheltenham :3DeBaliviere'Place :3Soulard :3Carr'Square :4Fox'Park :4Princeton'Heights :4Mount'Pleasant :5College'Hill :6Penrose :6Marine'Villa :8La'Salle :11

Change in Gun Assaults in St. Louis Neighborhoods, 2014 – 2015 (January – August)

Drug Market Expansion

•  Heroin use up – Mainly from market entrants in search of

prescription pain relievers who switch to heroin – Heroin-related deaths in St. Louis rose 661%

between 2005 and 2013 (from 31 to 236) •  More buyers attract more sellers, more

disputes, more violence

Source: CDC

US Heroin Abuse and Death Rates, 2002 - 2013

Source: Proceedings of the Community Epidemiology Work Group

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Heroin and Cocaine Related Deaths in St. Louis and St. Louis County, 2000 - 2013

Heroin

Cocaine

Responses

Hot Spots Policing •  Logic model

– Crime is spatially concentrated – Criminals tend to avoid the police – Increase police presence where crime is heavily concentrated

•  Two roles of the police –  Sentry role –  Apprehension role

•  Single most effective enforcement strategy for reducing crime

•  How does it work? –  Deterrence through opportunity reduction

Hot Spot Policing in St. Louis – I

St. Louis Public Safety Partnership and the “315” Field Experiment

Design and Results* •  32 firearm violence hot spots randomly allocated

to treatment and control conditions – Treatment = elevated police patrols and related activity

•  Nine-month intervention (March – November 2012)

•  Substantial reduction in firearm assaults –  71% drop in treatment areas v. 14% drop in control

areas •  No reduction in firearm robbery attributable to the

experiment •  No displacement effects

* See Rosenfeld, Deckard, and Blackburn (2014)

Hot Spot Policing in St. Louis - II

SLMPD Homicide Deterrence Initiative

Design •  12 areas selected for intervention based on incidence of

firearm violence •  Patrols enhanced during peak crime hours –  Vehicle checkpoints used in some areas

•  Intervention lasted one month (August 24 – September 23, 2012)

•  Evaluation strategy –  Crimes in HDI areas during intervention compared with

crimes in Non-HDI areas over same period 2011, prior month, 12-month average

–  Crime trends during evenings/nights compared with crime trends during daytime in HDI areas

Results for Target Crimes* •  HDI Areas – 68% reduction over same period 2011 – 68% reduction over prior month – 64% reduction over prior 12-month average

•  Non-HDI Areas – 12% reduction over same period 2011 – 7% reduction over prior month – 12% reduction over prior 12-month average

*Homicide, firearm assault (non-domestic), firearm robbery

Source: St. Louis Public Safety Partnership and SLMPD Crime Analysis

74# 72#67#

42#

48# 47#

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73#76#

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Aug24/Sep23#

Oct24/Nov23#

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Feb24/Mar23#

Ap24r/May23#

Jun24/Jul23#

Aug24/Sep23#

Target#Crimes#in#HDI#Areas#by#Month,!!August#24,#2011#/#September#23,#2012#

HDI#Target#Crimes##=#Non/DomesMc#Homicide,#Firearm#Assault,#Firearm#Robbery#

Source: St. Louis Public Safety Partnership and SLMPD Crime Analysis

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Aug24/Sep23"

Oct24/Nov23"

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Ap24r/May23"

Jun24/Jul23"

Aug24/Sep23"

Target"Crimes"in"HDI"and"Non/HDI"Areas"by"Month,"August"24,"2011"/"September"23,"2012"

"

Target"Crimes""="Non/DomesNc"Homicide,"Firearm"Assault,"Firearm"Robbery"

Non/HDI"Areas" HDI"Areas"

HDI"

198$

175$

74$

24$

76$

189$

Avg.$=$198$

Avg.$=$66$

Conclusions

•  HDI effective in reducing firearm violence – Reductions in target crimes in HDI areas 5-10

times greater than in Non-HDI areas •  Smaller reductions in other crimes •  Challenge to hot spots enforcement: Sustaining

crime reductions over time with available resources

Focused Deterrence

Logic Model

•  Focus on a particular community problem (e.g., gun violence)

•  Focus on particular problem groups (e.g., gangs) •  Create interagency enforcement and support

group (e.g., police, prosecutors, judges, corrections, service providers, family, clergy)

•  Hold community meetings to strengthen and disseminate antiviolence “norms and narratives”

Logic Model, cont.

•  Communicate directly and repeatedly with members of the target group (e.g., home visits, “call-ins”) – Special deterrence – General deterrence (“spill-over” effects) – Opportunity enhancement (e.g., education,

training, treatment, housing assistance, job placement)

•  Evaluate outcomes, preferably by randomized controlled studies

Hot Places, Hot People

Combining the Insights and Strategies of Hot Spots Policing and Focused Deterrence

Focus on People-in-Places

•  Identify gun violence hot spots •  Identify most active offenders and associates

in those places •  Enhance place-based police patrols •  Focused interventions with most active

offenders – Criminal opportunity reduction – Legitimate opportunity enhancement

Conclusion •  Basic principles – Go directly and repeatedly to the problem places and

problem people –  Stay until the problem abates – Return periodically to limit “regression to the

mean” (backsliding) – Evaluate, recalibrate, repeat

•  The dual hot-places, hot-people strategy can be adapted to any crime problem, not just gun assault

•  Consider ways to reward officers for crime reduction

Further Reading Maxwell, Jane Carlisle. 2015. The pain reliever and heroin epidemic in the

United States: Shifting winds in the perfect storm. Journal of Addictive Diseases 34: 127-140.

Braga, Anthony A., and David L. Weisburd. Focused deterrence and the prevention of violent gun injuries: Practice, theoretical principles, and scientific evidence. Annual Review of Public Health 36: 55–68.

Kennedy, David M. 2009. Deterrence and Crime Prevention. New York: Routledge.

Rosenfeld, Richard, Michael Deckard, and Emily Blackburn. 2014. The effects of directed patrol and self-initiated enforcement on firearm violence: A randomized controlled study of hot spot policing. Criminology 52: 428-449.

Weisburd, David, Elizabeth R. Groff, and Sue-Ming Yang. 2012. The Criminology of Place: Street Segments and Our Understanding of the Crime Problem. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Gun Violence in St. Louis II.pdf

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