GTSP Work Plan and Recent Research Results...10:45 a.m. GTSP Phase 4: Paradigm, Research Themes,...
Transcript of GTSP Work Plan and Recent Research Results...10:45 a.m. GTSP Phase 4: Paradigm, Research Themes,...
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GTSP Work Plan and Recent Research Results
Jae Edmonds and Leon Clarke
December 1, 2010
Cosmos ClubWashington, DC
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Agenda W ednesday December 01, 2010
8:30 a.m. Breakfast
9:15 a.m. Welcome and Meeting Goals
Jae Edmonds, Co-Director, GTSP
9:25 a.m. GTSP in the Context of O ther JGCRI IAM Activities Anthony Janetos, Director JGCRI
9:45 a.m. The GTSP Phase 3 Capstone Report: Update on Progress Jae Edmonds
10:45 a.m. GTSP Phase 4: Paradigm, Research Themes, Model Development, and Organization Leon Clarke
11:45 a.m. The GTSP Website and Working Lunch Leon Clarke, Co-Director, GTSP
12:30 p.m. The GTSP Phase 3 Work Plan and Research Results Since May Jae Edmonds
1:00 p.m. Model Development and Staffing Leon Clarke
1:30 p.m. Community Activities: IAMC , IPCC Impacts Scenarios Jae Edmonds
2:00 p.m. 3:00 p.m.
Community Activities: IPCC SRRE N , AM E , E M F 24 Leon Clarke O ther Issues Leon Clarke
3:30 p.m. Adjourn
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The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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The IAMCThe Integrated Assessment Consortium (IAMC) was created in 2007 in response to a call from the IPCC for an organization to lead the integrated assessment modeling community in the development of new scenarios that could be employed by climate modelers in the development of prospective ensemble numerical experiments for both the near term and long term.Leaders from 3 institutions, John Weyant (EMF), Nebojsa Nakicenovic (IIASA) and Mikiko Kainuma (NIES), invited other research organizations to join with them to form the IAMC for the purpose of developing scenarios.
These became the 4 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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Aims of the IAMCThe Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) exists to facilitate and foster the development of integrated assessment models (IAMs), peer interaction and vetting, and the conduct of research employing IAMs, including model diagnosis, intercomparison, and coordinated studies.The IAMC also exists to facilitate and coordinate IAM research with research conducted in both the Climate Modeling (CM) and the Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) research communities.The IAMC also exists to provide a point of contact with other institutions and organizations interacting with the IAM community, e.g. the IPCC.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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GovernanceThe IAMC Organization
Scientific Steering Committee (SSCs)Advisory Council
Conduct of IAMC workThe work of the IAMC is conducted through Scientific Working Groups (SWGs) chartered by the SSC and Community research programs undertaken by IAMC member organizationsCollaborations with other organizations
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
The Scientific Steering Committee
Although most of the work of the IAMC will be carried out through SWGs, the SSCprovides the leadership for the IAMC and is ultimately responsible for the governance and all of the work of the IAMC. In specific, the responsibilities of the SSC include:
Identify potential research priorities and opportunities based on input from IAMC member organizations and the IAMC Advisory Council. Identify issues to be addressed by SWGs and form, oversee, approve, and communicate work by SWGs; Review and recommend activities brought to it by IAMC member organizations and potential partner organizations; Serve as a point of contact of other external bodies, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Secure and shepherd the resources necessary to successful conduct the business of the IAMC. Establish an IAMC Secretariat to help with administrative tasks.
The SSC takes decisions by consensus.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Current (Founding) SSC Members
Sustaining SSC Members are (November, 2009):Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL
Research Institute (PNNL/JGCRI)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)
At-Large SSC Members are (November, 2009):Indian Institute of Management
China Energy Research InstitutePotsdam Institute for Climate Research
An election will be held to identify the remaining three At-Large members of the SSC.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Current Scientific Working Groups
So far the Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) has chartered four Scientific Working Groups (SWGs):
Working Group on Representative Concentration PathwaysWorking Group on Research PrioritiesWorking Group on Data Protocols and ManagementWorking Group on Narratives/Story Lines
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH PRIORITIES
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The SWG on Community Research Priorities
Chartered at the 2009 IAMC Scientific Steering Group meeting in Tsukuba, Japan.Chair: Jae EdmondsMembers:
Kate CalvinLeon ClarkeMikiko Kainuma Tom KramVolker Krey
Elmar Kriegler
Keywan RiahiDetlef van VuurenJohn Weyant
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Activities for the Scientific Working Group on Research Priorities
Catalogue of current and recent IAMC activities, includingCompleted: EMF 22, RECIPE, ADAM, Ongoing: RoSE, AME, EMF 24, CPO, AMPERE, PIAMDDI
Identify IAMC research and capacity-building prioritiesTake into account interests of external communities, such as the IPCC, the VIA community, governments decision makers and so forth
Map research priorities to existing IAMC activities.Identify gaps in the community agenda.
Vet this with the larger IAMC community.Discussions at the annual meeting.Make the draft report available for comment by all IAMC members.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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Timeline for Scientific Working Group on Research Priorities
Preparation for next IAMC meetingPrepare a short paper to spur discussionPrepare slides for discussion
Meet in DC and discussRevise the material
Produce material for the IAMC websiteWrite a paper for publication
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
IAMC Research PrioritiesTechnology and mitigation scenarios (Clarke/Riahi) Policy scenarios (imperfect and perfect) (Kriegler)Second-best worlds (Kriegler)Regional scenarios (Calvin)Development, Demographics, and Urbanization Integration between energy, economy, land use and water (van Vuuren/Edmonds)Interactions between climate mitigation, climate adaptation, residual impacts (van Vuuren/Edmonds)RCPs, Post-RCP replication and storylines (Kram, Van Vuuren, and Edmonds)Uncertainty (Kriegler/Bosetti)
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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IAMC Capacity-Building Priorities
Diagnostic scenarios (Weyant/Kriegler)
Model Validation and Data Development (Edmonds)
Standardized Data Template and Community Data Base (Krey/Calvin)
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Technology and Mitigation Scenarios
Background: Technology and policy are the two largest determinants of feasibility and cost.Scientific Question: Are there any essential technologies, e.g. nuclear or CCS? Are present technologies sufficient?Why This Is A Community Research Priority?While any individual modeling team can explore these questions, results from a community activity help determine the generality of findings.Developing A Community Activity: We have begun this investigation in EMF 24 and AME and other community activities e.g. RoSE. Potential to do more.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Policy scenariosBackground: increasingly called for. Investigation of long-term climate policy require policy specifications across all regions out to 2050-2100.Scientific Question: How can generic, but still regionally differentiated scenarios be identified? How can different types of policy scenarios be characterized (including a discussion of policies included in the baseline)?.Why This Is A Community Research Priority? Individual modeling teams and projects are all confronted with the request for more policy realism. Exchanging experience and establishing a set of useful policy scenarios improve results and help determine generality of findings. Developing A Community Activity: We have begun this investigation in EMF 22, 24 and other community activities such as RoSE. Potential to do more.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Second-best Worlds
Background: Second best worlds include imperfect markets. GHG pricing in isolation is sub-optimal. Can have a large impact on feasibility and mitigation costs Scientific Question: What type of market failures are key factors and how can they be tackled in IAMs. What are the implications for costs and feasibility of mitigation policies?Why This Is A Community Research Priority?Richer description of real world situation. Large implications on mitigation strategy and costs need to be considered. IPCC WGIII calls for deeper investigation of 2nd best worlds.Developing A Community Activity: Exchange experience on existing 2nd best analyses. Build common understanding which and how 2nd best situations can be studied. We have begun this investigation in EMF 22, 24 and other community activities such as RoSE. Potential to do more.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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Regional ScenariosBackground: Emissions mitigation and climate change occur at regional scales. We use the term region in two different contexts elements of IAMs and geographic areas at finer spatial scales than in IAMs.Scientific Question: What is the role of individual regions in shaping emissions and emissions mitigation? How does climate mitigation and adaptation take place at local scales consistent with larger global forces?Why This Is A Community Research Priority?Community activities that link regional experts with global modelers can improve both regional and global modeling results.Developing A Community Activity: This has begun with the Asia Modeling Exercise (AME). There is potential to expand on this model. Individual IAM teams are working to develop high-resolution disaggregations regional integrated models.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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Development, Demographics, and Urbanization
Background: Most analysis use limited demographic information.Scientific Question: What difference does varying demographic assumptions make? How are demographics, urbanization and economic development related?Why This Is A Community Research Priority? Community activities could improve the quality of analysis in the community.Developing A Community Activity: Model intercomparison on alternative demographic tracks, urbanization and development (e.g. AME), development of community demographic tools.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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Integration Between Energy, Economy, Land Use and Water
Background: IAMs do not presently include water, yet water could be an important constraint on energy systems.Scientific Question: Do emissions mitigation results change when water is explicitly included. This could be particularly important for bioenergy, and power plants which need cooling.Why This Is A Community Research Priority? The community would benefit from coordinated activities to assemble models and data.Developing A Community Activity: Individual teams have begun to develop research efforts. No present activities have been developed yet.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Interactions Between Climate Mitigation, Climate Adaptation, Residual Impacts
Background: Emissions, climate change and impacts-adaptation occur concurrently.Scientific Question: How are climate mitigation and adaptation affected by the presence of the other? Why This Is A Community Research Priority? Large investments will need to be made to link state of the art human systems models with state of the art climate models, but coordination would benefit all.Developing A Community Activity: Several modeling teams have begun working on this problem. Coordination would be beneficial.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
RCPs, Post-RCP replication and storylines
Background: The Noordwijkerhout plan calls for RCPs and a jump start to the next assessment cycle, but needs to be followed by replications and efforts to develop scenarios that would be useful to the IAV community.Scientific Question: Can these RCPs be replicated by other teams? Can we better organize linkages between the IAM and VIA community? How can the information resulting from the climate modeling experiments be used to enrich the representation of the climate system and carbon cycle in IAMs?Why This Is A Community Research Priority? RCPs are a core mission of the IAMC.Developing A Community Activity: RCPs are complete. Replication and new scenarios for IAV use under development.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Uncertainty
Background Prediction is difficult, particularly attributed to various sources.
Most work is deterministic.Scientific Question: How do results change when uncertainty is treated explicitly? Why This Is A Community Research Priority?Researchers have traditionally developed uncertainty as individual teams, but no coordinated project has been organized since early EMF work.Developing A Community Activity: This would require a lead organization.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Diagnostic Scenarios
Background: IAMs are complex, but contain modules that perform common functions.Scientific Question: How well do individual model components perform? Why This Is A Community Research Priority?The IAM community could benefit from comparing component performance.Developing A Community Activity: This would require a lead organization.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Model Validation and Data Development
Background: Models use a variety of data sources. Models also have, in general not gone through any formal validation process.Scientific Question: How well would IAMs do, if they were given the challenge of predicting the present starting 50 to 100 years in the past?Why This Is A Community Research Priority? IA models have been criticized for not back casting or validating. The community would benefit if it could put this issue to rest.Developing A Community Activity: Would require development of data bases for the models, consistent with the long-term nature of the models. Procedures and protocols would need to be developed. Diagnostic work. Who would sponsor?
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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Standardized Data Template and Community Data Base
Background: Each modeling team has traditionally developed its own reporting conventions.Why This Is A Community Research Priority? Use of a common format for community activities would greatly improve model comparability.Developing A Community Activity: Work is currently underway through the IAMC SWG on Working Group on Data Protocols and Management.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
-
Where Are We Going From Here?-
On each of the priorities.On existing community activities.
Summaries will be put up on the IAMC web site for information and comment.
community activities.Summaries will be used as the basis for an IAMC research priorities document.
IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM
http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Founded 2007
Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems
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DATA PROTOCOLS AND MANAGEMENT
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Data Protocols and Management
Kate Calvin, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi
with contributions from many other people
IAMC Annual Meeting, 28-29 October 2010, Washington DC
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Why is this a priority?
Modeling comparison exercises and scenario reviews have expanded over the past yearsHandling the data requests has become a pain for the modeling teamsManual data processing due to varying templates is error-proneIncorporate quality control mechanismsData availability improves transparency and credibilityEasy data access can foster interesting analysis of scenario data (follow the example of the climate modeling community)
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What happened so far?
September 2009: Initial Discussions at the IAMC Annual Meeting 2009, TsukubaOctober/November 2009: Series of Conference Calls with interested people from PNNL, PBL, NIES, IIASADecember 2009: 1st AME data templateMay 2010: 2nd AME data templateJuly 2010: database prototype shown at SnowmassAugust 2010: 1st EMF24 data templateSeptember 2010: Launch of EMF24 online database based on the 1st EMF24 data template
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The Data Template
People involved: Kate Calvin (PNNL), Leon Clarke (PNNL), Tatsuya Hanaoka (NIES), Mikiko Kainuma (NIES), Peter Kolp (IIASA), Volker Krey (IIASA), Keywan Riahi (IIASA), Bas van Ruijven (PBL) Objectives in designing the template:
Prescribe a structure that can easily be parsedFormat should be adaptable to future needsKeep the barrier low: format should be manageable manually as well as in an automated fashion
Results: Data container (spreadsheet) and sets of variables (core and extended)
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The Data Template Time Series
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The Data Template Variables
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The Database
RCP database served as a starting pointAdded functionality
User/group managementInteractive scenario uploads
Some initial quality checks (model, variable and region names)
First prototype presented at Snowmass 2010First application in EMF24
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Improvements in EMF24 SubmissionStability
Servlet and importer decoupledMore resistant against changes in original template
PerformanceImports ~50 times faster than initiallyRule of thumb: ~1 second per scenario and region
Some ChecksRegion submission check (similar to variables spelling differences, etc.)
Improved communicationMessages upon queuing and completion of import
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Plans for the EMF24 Database
Additional historical dataAutomatic quality checks
Match with historical data (+/- x%)Consistent primary energy and fossil & industrial CO2 emissionsPredefined scenario names?
History
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The Way Forward: Issues and Ideas (1)
extended list of variables including documentationEstablish process for updating the template
collect proposals for new variables continuouslyrevisit regularly (e.g. once a year)
Extension to spatial data setsbuilding on initial work done in the RCP process
Look at examples in other communities, for example Program for
Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)
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The Way Forward: Issues and Ideas (2)
Developing a community database beyond specific applications such as EMF24 or AME
Useful region definitions for public datadevelop criteria for submission (e.g. peer-reviewed publication)include references to underlying publicationssuggested citation for database
Other applications of the database platformcollect input data sets (e.g. technology database) as a community resource
Explore potential links to other research prioritiesStorylines and RCP replicationModel validation
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Access and Legal Issues
Who should be able to access data?Internal data access in specific applications (e.g. EMF24)Public access to finalized/published data
Agreement between modeling groups, database host and data users
DisclaimerTerms of use Licensing (e.g. Creative/Scientific Commons License)
Build on experience of climate modeling communityCMIP5 website, etc.
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THE STORYLINES SWG: IMPACTS SCENARIOS
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The MatrixThe IAV community wants a variety of scenarios.
Different climate forcingDifferent socioeconomic assumptions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs)Different climate scenarios
Two different groups developed approaches to creating new pathways.
Van Vuuren, et al.Kriegler, et al.
The approaches were very similar.
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Scenarios for the IAV community
The SSP would be defined by quantitative measures like population, GDP.The mitigation scenario would generate additional information, e.g. energy, agriculture, land prices. (consistency with land-use?)A qualitative storyline would allow local IAV studies to fill in the rest.
IMPACT = Exposure + Vulnerability!
high low
low mid high
2.6
4.5
6
8.5
Clim
ate
sign
al
VulnerabilitySSP or
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A Strategic Plan
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Lots of operational questions remainWho will produce these new scenarios?
Presumably the IAM community, but who?If there are lots of IAM models, will any two IAV studies be comparable?
Which climate model outputs?No thought has gone into trying to decide what to do with the ensemble nature of climate model numerical experiments.
Is the proposed time line remotely possible?
Will there be any relationship between this process and the U.S. National Assessment?
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Agenda W ednesday December 01, 2010
8:30 a.m. Breakfast
9:15 a.m. Welcome and Meeting Goals
Jae Edmonds, Co-Director, GTSP
9:25 a.m. GTSP in the Context of O ther JGCRI IAM Activities Anthony Janetos, Director JGCRI
9:45 a.m. The GTSP Phase 3 Capstone Report: Update on Progress Jae Edmonds
10:45 a.m. GTSP Phase 4: Paradigm, Research Themes, Model Development, and Organization Leon Clarke
11:45 a.m. The GTSP Website and Working Lunch Leon Clarke, Co-Director, GTSP
12:30 p.m. The GTSP Phase 3 Work Plan and Research Results Since May Jae Edmonds
1:00 p.m. Model Development and Staffing Leon Clarke
1:30 p.m. Community Activities: IAMC , IPCC Impacts Scenarios Jae Edmonds
2:00 p.m. 3:00 p.m.
Community Activities: IPCC SRRE N , AM E , E M F 24 Leon Clarke O ther Issues Leon Clarke
3:30 p.m. Adjourn