GTH Investor presentation March 2017 =GN=...2017 Investor Presentation March 2017. 2 ... •Right...
Transcript of GTH Investor presentation March 2017 =GN=...2017 Investor Presentation March 2017. 2 ... •Right...
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Holding2017 InvestorPresentation
March2017
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Holding2017
Disclaimer
This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy shares in Global Telecom Holding S.A.E. (the"Company"). Further, it does not constitute a recommendation by the Company or any other party to sell or buy shares in the Company or any other securities.
This presentation includes statements that are, or may be deemed to be, "forward-looking statements". These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use offorward-looking terminology, including, without limitation, the terms "believes", "estimates", "anticipates", "expects", "intends", "plans", "goal", "target", "aim", "may", "will","would", "could" or "should" or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology. All statements other than statements of historical facts included inthis presentation, including, without limitation, those regarding the Company’s strategic priorities and objectives and the anticipated benefits therefrom, and prospects areforward-looking statements. By their nature, such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which, if any one or more ofsuch risks, uncertainties or factors were to materialize, may cause the actual results, financial condition, performance, liquidity, dividend policy or achievements of the Company,or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's present and future business strategies and the environment in which theCompany will operate in the future. Important factors that could cause the Company's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those in theforward-looking statements include, among others, the prices of the Company's products and services, the actions of competitors, the availability of credit, governmentalregulation of the telecommunications industry in countries in which the Company operates, the effects of political uncertainty and economic conditions in the relevant areas inthe world, the impact of foreign currency rates, taxation, government investigations and/or unforeseen litigation, failure to meet expectations regarding operational andnetwork development and network investment, and failure to meet expectations regarding various strategic initiatives, including, but not limited to, the performancetransformation program and/or changes to the capital structure. Forward-looking statements should, therefore, be construed in light of such factors and undue reliance shouldnot be placed on forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. The Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking (except as required byapplicable law or regulatory obligation including under the rules of the Egyptian Exchange and the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the FinancialConduct Authority), to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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GTH– establishedmarketpositioninhighlypopulatedcountries…
Pakistan38%
Algeria42%
Bangladesh20%
Algeria45%
Pakistan38%
Bangladesh17%
Pakistan43%
Algeria36%
Bangladesh21%
USD2.2billion
USD1.0billion
ServiceRevenueFY16
EBITDA FY16
OpFCF 1 FY16
USD0.9billion
1 OperatingfreecashflowdefinedasunderlyingEBITDA– Capex(excludinglicenses)3 Customermarketshare4 Source:data.worldbank.org
Algeria#1Marketposition3 (share- 36%)(3PlayerMarket)Demography4
• Population:40million• Populationbelow24years:45%Macro-economic4
• RealGDPgrowth:3.6%• GDP(PPP)percapita:USD14,310
Pakistan#1Marketposition1 (share- 38%)(4PlayerMarket)Demography4
• Population:190million(6thlargest)
• Populationbelow24years:54%Macro-economic4
• RealGDPgrowth:4.7%• GDP(PPP)percapita:USD5,320
Bangladesh#3Marketposition1 (share- 25%)(3PlayerMarket)Demography4
• Population:161million(8th largest)• Populationbelow24years:51%Macro-economic4
• RealGDPgrowth:6.6%• GDP(PPP)percapita:USD3,560
• ~ 400 million population• ~ 100 million customers• 50% below 24 years
…Similarmarketsandphasesofdevelopment
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Mobile-connectedsocietieswithhighgrowthpotential…
72% 73%
115%
PAK BGD ALG
421
254345
PAK BGD ALG
…traditional business still growing and appetite for
innovation
Source:Companydata,WCIS,Ciscoestimates,WorldBankGroup1 2016,basedonWCISdata2 BasedonCompanydata.Datausagecalculatedonactivecustomersinthelast3monthsasof30September20163 Penetrationcomputedassmartphoneconnectionsdividedbytotalmobileconnections4 2016,basedonCiscoestimates(monthlyusagedata)andcompanycalculations
MobilePenetration1 (%)
DataUsage2 (MB/User)
WesternEuropeAvg:121%
WesternEurope4Avg:4,041MB/User
MobileDataPenetration2 (%)
48% 50%40%
PAK BGD ALG
WesternEurope1Avg:86%
26%
12%
31%
PAK BGD ALG
WesternEuropeAvg:86%
Smartphonepenetration3 (%)
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Emergingmarketsataglance
CONCLUDEINTEGRATION,NETWORK
EXPANSIONANDDELIVERSYNERGIES
TURNAROUNDWITHGROWTHIN
SMARTPHONEANDDATAACCESS
NETWORKEXPANSIONANDDIGITALSTRATEGY
Pakistan Algeria Bangladesh
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Pakistan:fuellingmomentumasmarketleader
INTEGRATION NETWORKDEVELOPMENT DIGITALAGENDA
• Enhancingcustomerpropositionthroughnetworkdevelopment
• Focuson:
• Datacoverageincrease
• Networkmodernization
• Warid (#5)acquiredinJuly,2016
• 3GofferedtoWarid customersin30cities
• 4G/LTEofferedtoMobilinkcustomersin17cities
• On-netproducts:inthemarket
• January2017:rebrandto“Jazz”
• Synergies:68%run-rateachieved~PKR8.2billion(USD78million)
• GrowingMFSwithfocusontransactionsandwalletstop-ups
• JazzXlr8(IncubationCentre)- LargestIncubator/Acceleratorof
Pakistanlaunched- 30start-upstojointheprogram- First5start-upstorepresent
JazzXlr8atGSMA(4YFN)
…bankingtheunbanked,enhancingcustomerpropositionthroughnetwork,bringingsynergieswithintegration
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Algeria:fixingthebusiness
STRUCTURALISSUES NEWFRAMEWORK RENEWEDFOCUS
• Rightpartner(FNI– AlgeriaGovernment)
• SMPstatusliftedinQ32016• Heavyinvestmentintechnology• Majorinternaltransformation
• Legacyunder-investmentinnetwork&systems
• SignificantMarketPlayerstatus• AsymmetryinMTRs• Restrictionson3Groll-out• StagnantOrganization– Lossoftalents
• 2Gposition,3Gparity,4G/LTEleadership
• Datacentricpricing– FirstinMarket
• RefreshedBrand–Network/Emotion
• FocusonbothIndirect&DirectDistribution
• Newleadershipteam– Urgency• OrganizationRedesign–Lean/Agile
STAGNATION BACKTOBASICS GROWTH
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Bangladesh:gettingbackourpositioninthemarket…
ORGANIZATIONALTRANSFORMATION
NETWORKDEVELOPMENT
STABILIZINGMARKETPOSITION
• Focusonsubstantiallyimproving3Gnetwork
• RegionalNetworkandDistributionalignmentfocusedonROI
• Fiber transmission– LeasedCapacityModel
• ManagedservicesinFLMandCustomerService
• DesignedforSharedServices
• Movetodigitaltalentsandautomatingprocessinallareas
• Openplan,hot-deskingandrefreshedculture
• Closedthegapto#2by3pointsin2016
• Newspectrumisexpectedduring2017
• NationalIncubationcenterlaunched
• Indirectdistributionrefresh–Clustermode
…onthebackofnetworkinvestmentsanddigitalstrategy
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Strategy
Deliveringonstrategy
PerformanceTransform
ation
New
RevenuStreams
$$
$$
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4Q16FinancialHighlights
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4Q16financialhighlights
Servicerevenue(USDmillion)
736
339 44.1
- 2.2%organic1 YoY+ 7.2%reportedYoY
98.3Mobilecustomers(million)
UnderlyingEBITDA(USDmillion)
UnderlyingEBITDAmargin(%)
+ 12.8millionYoY²
+ 0.5%organic1 YoY+ 2.1%reportedYoY
- 5.6 p.p.YoY
1 Revenueorganicgrowtharenon-GAAPfinancialmeasuresthatexcludetheeffectofforeigncurrencytranslationandcertainitemssuchasliquidationsanddisposals²CustomersnumberincludesWarid customers
• Servicerevenuedeclinedorganically2.2%YoY dueto:
► Double-digitgrowthinPakistan
► WeakperformanceinAlgeriaandBangladesh
• Mobiledatarevenuesignificantorganicgrowthof75%YoY
• UnderlyingEBITDAwasorganicallystableasaresultof:
► StrongperformanceinPakistan
► OffsetbyadeclineinAlgeriaandBangladesh
• ContinuedstrongunderlingEBITDAmarginof44%andreportedEBITDAmarginof31%
• Continuedcustomergrowthof14%,with12millioncustomersaddedYoY duetostrongperformanceinPakistanandtheconsolidationofWarid
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10.9
15.413.5
40.5% 40.0% 34.9%
4Q15 3Q16 4Q16
4Q16Pakistan:doubledigitgrowthcontinued,integrationongoing
• Mergerintegrationexecutionaheadofschedule:► annual run-rate of PKR 8.2 billion (USD 78 million)
synergies already achieved
► Mobilink and Warid rebranded as “Jazz” in January 2017
• Doubledigitrevenuegrowth,supportedbyallrevenuestreams,resultinginrevenuemarketsharegain
• InQ42016mobiledatarevenueorganicgrowthof61.7%YoY;MFSrevenuegrowthof34.2%YoY
• InQ4UnderlyingEBITDAmargin1ofmergedentity,excludingtransformation/integrationcosts,of40.3%
• FY2016OCFmargin2of26%
• Firstdividenddeclaredin11years► Gross amount ~PKR 5 billion (~USD 50 million)
7.2
10.1
23.5% 16.6%
4Q15 4Q16
EBITDAANDEBITDAMARGIN(PKRBILLIONAND%)
CAPEXEXCL.LICENSESANDLTMCAPEX/REVENUE(PKRBILLIONAND%)
36.2 41.3
10.3 10.3
4Q15 4Q16
+42.4%YoY+14.0%YoYorganic
+24.3%YoY+14.9%YoYorganic
+41.0%YoY+34.2%YoYorganic
0.52.4 9.62.0
2.2 1.012.5
MOBILECUSTOMERS(MILLION)
46.5
25.3 28.4 29.0
7.8 7.7 7.7
4Q15 3Q16 4Q16
+45.0%YoY+14.6%YoYorganic
SERVICEREVENUE(PKRBILLION)
36.736.1 51.6
Warid contribution;Q42015totalfiguresarepro-forma,includingintercompanytransactionswithMobilinkOrganicYoYchangerepresentsstandaloneperformanceofMobilink1Q42016EBITDAnegativelyimpactedbyone-offsoftransformation/integrationcostsofPKR2.1billion;Q42015EBITDAnegativelyimpactedbyaone-offofPKR0.2billionrelatedtotransformationcosts
2 OperatingCashflowmargin=(UnderlyingEBITDA-Capexexcl.licenses)/Totalrevenue
13.28.9
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4Q16Algeria:continuedpressureonresults
• ServicerevenuecontinuedtodecreasedoubledigitYoY,notwithstandingstrongdatarevenue(+70%YoY)
• NewCEOonboardsince26January,leadingarenewedmanagementteamcommittedtotheturnaround
• Keyfocalpointsofthemid-termturnaround:► strengthening the organization, focus on commercial
► distribution, both direct and indirect
► keeping positive momentum in 4G/LTE roll-out, alreadycompleted in 20 willayas, keeping Djezzy ahead ofcompetition
• CustomerbaseincreasedQoQ
• UnderlyingEBITDAmargincontinuedtobeabove50%,asaresultofPerformanceTransformationprogram
• FY2016OCFmargin2of38%
17.3 14.9 13.954.3% 51.3% 50.9%
4Q15 3Q16 4Q16
7.36.2
15.3% 16.0%
4Q15 4Q16
31.2 28.9 26.9
4Q15 3Q16 4Q16
17.0 16.3
4Q15 4Q16
-4.2%YoY
-19.9%YoY-24.4%YoYunderlying1 -15.6%YoY
-13.7%YoY
1 Q42016EBITDAnegativelyimpactedbyone-offs,duetotransformationcosts,ofDZD0.2billion;Q42015EBITDAnegativelyimpactedbyone-offs,duetotransformationcosts,ofDZD1.3billion
2 OperatingCashflowmargin=(UnderlyingEBITDA-Capexexcl.licenses)/Totalrevenue
MOBILECUSTOMERS(MILLION)
EBITDAANDEBITDAMARGIN(DZDBILLIONAND%)
CAPEXEXCL.LICENSESANDLTMCAPEX/REVENUE(DZDBILLIONAND%
SERVICEREVENUE(DZD BILLION)
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4Q16Bangladesh:customergrowth inacompetitve market
• Servicerevenuedecreased2%YoY:► aggressive competition on price and offers, accelerated
after the SIM-verification and in-market consolidation
► additional supplementary duties introduced in H1 2016
► gap in 3G network especially in semi-rural and urban areas
• Sustainedstronggrowthindatarevenueof51%YoY
• Customergrewby1.4millionQoQ;excludingtheSIMre-verificationimpactof3.8millionSIMblocking,thecustomerbasein4Q16wouldhaveincreasedby~6%YoY
• UnderlyingEBITDAdeclinedasaresultofacceleratedcustomeracquisitionactivityduringthequarter
• 3Gcoveragereached59%ofpopulation;Banglalinkisaddressingthegapversuscompetitors,aimingatsubstantiallyimprovingthe3Gnetworkin2017
• FY2016OCFmargin2of24.3%
4.0
5.74.4
33.1%46.7% 36.4%
0.0
4Q15 3Q16 4Q16
3.3
5.1
22.2% 22.1%
4Q15 4Q16
11.8 12.0 11.6
4Q15 3Q16 4Q16
32.3 30.4
4Q15 4Q16
-5.9%YoY
+9.9%YoY-10.8%YoYUnderlying1 +56.4%
-2.0%YoY
1 Q42016EBITDAnegativelyimpactedbyone-offsduetotransformationofBDT0.8billion;Q42015EBITDAnegativelyimpactedbyone-offs,includingtransformationcosts,ofBDT1.8billion
2 OperatingCashflowmargin=(UnderlyingEBITDA-Capexexcl.licenses)/Totalrevenue
MOBILECUSTOMERS(MILLION)
EBITDAANDEBITDAMARGIN(BDTBILLIONAND%)
CAPEXEXCL.LICENSESANDLTMCAPEX/REVENUE(BDTBILLIONAND%
SERVICEREVENUE(BDTBILLION)
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Debtbyentity
Asat31December2016
Netdebt/underlying1 LTMEBITDA
Grossdebt/underlying1 LTMEBITDA
Weightedaverageinterestrate
1.5x 1.9xBridgeloanpro-forma:
2.0x
8.2%Bridgeloanpro-forma:
1.6x
Outstandingexternaldebt(USDmillion)
Typeofdebt
Entity Currency Loans Bonds Other TotalGTHFinanceBV USD - 1,200 - 1,200Pakistan PKR&USD 598 66 92 757Banglalink USD - 300 5 305Algeria DZD 340 - - 340
Total principal amount 938 1,566 97 2,602
1 UnderlyingEBITDAexcludesPTcostsin2016andsimverificationcostsin2015
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BalancedmaturityprofileAsat31December2016InUSDmillion
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Bangladesh
GTH
Algeria
Pakistan621
20 17
284 286
565
717
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Netdebtevolution
ND: Net debtΔ WC: Change in working capital
1,961
( 235)9 130 46 148 ( 69)
1,990
Pro-formaNDSeptember30th16
EBITDA ΔWC NetInterest Taxes Capex ForexandOthers NDDec.31th16
Asat31December2016InUSD’000
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Appendix
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4Q16incomestatement
• GainfromsaleofZimbabweofUSD21million
• ImprovedmainlyduetounrealizedFOREXgainontaxprovisionasaresultofthedepreciationofEGPvs.USD
• Moresupportprovidedtooperations,likenetworkswapinPakistan,networkmodernization,3Gand4G/LTEroll-outinAlgeriaand3GnetworkinBangladesh..
• Substantiallylowerimpairmentsonassetsin4Q16versus4Q15
• EBITDAdeclinewasrelatedtooperationalperformanceandprovisionofUSD66millionofIraqna litigation
USDmillions 4Q16 4Q15 ReportedYoY
Servicerevenue 736.5 687.2 7.2%
-Ofwhichmobiledatarevenue 87.1 50.3 73.2%
Otherrevenue 31.3 22.6 38.1%
TotalRevenue 767.8 709.8 8.2%
Totalexpense (533.2) (415.2) 28.4%
EBITDA 234.6 294.6 (20.4%)Depreciationandamortizationofpropertyandequipment (160.5) (155.3) 3.4%
Gains/(Loss)onsoldproperty,equipment,intangibles,goodwillandscrapping 1.2 (3.0) n.m
Impairmentlossfromassets (8.6) (65.9) (86.9%)
Technicalservicesexpense (9.9) (2.4) 303.1%
OtherOperatingGain/(Loss) 13.6 (14.1) n.m
OperatingProfit 70.3 53.9 30.6%FinancialExpense (65.5) (65.1) 0.7%
FinancialIncome 3.3 2.6 25.3%
ForeignExchangeGain/(Loss) 50.1 8.7 474.0%
ProfitBeforeTax 58.3 0.2 n.m
IncomeTax (23.1) 21.6 n.mProfitforthePeriod 35.2 21.8 61.3%
Attributableto:
TheOwnersoftheParent 7.3 (12.3) n.m
Non-controllinginterests 28.0 34.1 (18.1%)
ProfitforthePeriod 35.2 21.8 61.3%
EarningsPerShare 0.01 0.00 61.3%
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ForeignExchangeRatesAppliedtotheFinancialStatements
Averagerates Closingrates
4Q16 4Q15 YoY 4Q16 4Q15 YoY
Egyptianpound 14.5 7.9 84.4% 18.1 7.8 131.8%
AlgerianDinar 110.6 106.8 3.5% 110.4 107.1 3.1%
PakistanRupee 104.8 104.9 (0.2%) 104.4 104.7 -0.3%
BangladeshiTaka 78.6 78.5 0.2% 78.9 78.3 0.9%
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Furtherinformation
InvestorRelationsOlaTayel
CairoRegisteredOffice AmsterdamHeadOffice2005CNileCityTowers- NorthTower GustavMahlerlaan 314CornishElNileRamlet Beaulac 1082MEAmsterdamCairo11221,Egypt TheNetherlandsTel:+20224615120 E:[email protected]
Visitourwebsitewww.gtelecom.com