Gross domestic product - Statistics South Africa 2019 Q4... · GDP Q4: 2019 Manufacturing: Weak...
Transcript of Gross domestic product - Statistics South Africa 2019 Q4... · GDP Q4: 2019 Manufacturing: Weak...
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GDP
Q4: 2019
@StatsSA
#GDP
GDP
Q4: 2019
Gross
domestic
product4th quarter 20193 March 2020
Embargo: 11:30am
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GDP
Q4: 2019
GDP
Q4: 2019
GDP production
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GDP
Q4: 2019
-0,6%
in Q3: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
-0,8%
Previous Revised
in Q3: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Revisions for Q3: 2019GDP production
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Revisions for Q3: 2019GDP production
The differences between previous and revised data may not necessarily add up due to rounding-off.
Previous Revised Difference
General government services 2,4 2,4 0,0
Electricity, gas and water -4,9 -4,9 0,0
Finance, real estate and business services 1,6 1,6 0,0
Mining and quarrying -6,1 -6,1 0,0
Personal services 0,4 0,4 0,0
Trade, catering and accommodation 2,6 2,6 0,0
Transport, storage and communication -5,4 -5,4 0,0
Manufacturing -3,9 -4,4 -0,5
Agriculture, forestry and fishing -3,6 -4,5 -0,9
Construction -2,7 -6,9 -4,2
-0,7 -0,9 -0,2
0,8 0,1 -0,6
-0,6 -0,8 -0,3
Total value added at basic prices
Taxes less subsidies on products
GDP at market prices
IndustryQ-Q growth
Dow
nN
o c
hange
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Growth figures for Q4: 2019
-1,4%
in Q4: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
-0,5%
in Q4: 2019(year-on-year)
unadjusted
Real GDP
0,2%
Real GDP Real GDP
in 2019(compared with 2018)
Sum of four quarters
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Quarter-on-quarter percentage growth in GDP production, seasonally adjusted and annualised
The economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter in Q4: 2019Transport, wholesale, motor trade and accommodation were the biggest drags on growth
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
-1,0%-0,4%
-2,9%
All three sectors
reported negative
growth in Q4: 2019
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GDP
Q4: 2019
0,6
0,1
0,0
GDP
-1,4%
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
Industry growth
rates in Q4: 2019Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally
adjusted and annualised
-0,2
-0,5
-0,1
-0,2
-0,6
-0,2
-0,1
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Agriculture: Decreased production was reported for field crops and horticultural products
Mining: Increased production was reported for the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold
Q/Q growth in Q4: 2019, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Manufacturing: Weak production reported for the automotive and wood and paper industry were the main drags on growth
Electricity, gas and water: A fall in both electricity distributed and water consumption pulled overall growth down by 4,0%
Construction: Declining activities were reported for residential buildings, non-residential buildings and construction works
Q/Q growth in Q4: 2019, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Trade: A fall in activity was reported for wholesale trade, motor trade and accommodation services
Transport: Decreased activity in land transport, air transport and transport support services contributed to the fall
Finance: Financial intermediation and auxiliary activities contributed positively to growth
Personal services: Increased spending on health and recreational activities
Government: The fall was partly attributed to a decline in employment numbers in higher education institutions, national and provincial government
Q/Q growth in Q4: 2019, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Nominal GDP values for Q4: 2019
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Trade was up by R24 billion to R192 billion
Finance was up by R4 billion to R228 billion
Electricity, gas and water was down by R9 billion to R36 billion
Agriculture was down by R17 billion to R12 billion
Nominal GDP was estimated at R1,31 trillion in Q4: 2019,
up by R19 billion from Q3: 2019
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Finance and
business
services
20%
Government
18%
Trade
17%
Manufacturing
13%
Transport
10%
Mining
9%
Personal
services
6%
Electricity,
gas and
water
3%
Construction
4%
Agriculture 1%
Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100%
Which are the largest (and smallest) industries in South Africa?Percentage contribution to total nominal value added in Q4: 2019
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GDP
Q4: 2019
GDP
Q4: 2019
Expenditure on GDP
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GDP
Q4: 2019
-0,3%
in Q3: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
-0,4%
Previous Revised
in Q3: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Revisions for Q3: 2019Expenditure on GDP
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Revisions for Q3: 2019Expenditure on GDP
The differences between previous and revised data may not necessarily add up due to rounding-off
Previous Revised Difference
Government final consumption expenditure 1,3 1,4 0,1
Household final consumption expenditure 0,2 0,3 0,1
No change Exports of goods and services 3,5 3,5 0,0
Gross fixed capital formation 4,5 4,1 -0,4
Imports of goods and services -6,8 -8,9 -2,1
-0,3 -0,4 -0,1
-9,5 -13,9 -4,4
Up
Q-Q growth
Expenditure on GDP
Change in inventories (R billion)
Component
Down
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Growth figures for Q4: 2019
-1,2%
in Q4: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
-0,1%
in Q4: 2019(year-on-year)
Unadjusted
Expenditure
on GDP
0,1%
Expenditure
on GDPExpenditure
on GDP
in 2019(compared with 2018)
Sum of four quarters
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Quarter-on-quarter percentage growth, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDPe contracted for the second consecutive quarter in Q4: 2019A drawdown in inventories contributed negatively to growth
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GDP
Q4: 2019
0,7
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
Change in inventories: -R40,3 billion (contribution: -3,3 percentage points)
0,8
0,0
2,7
-2,0
Expenditure
on GDP
-1,2%
Component growth
rates in Q4: 2019Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally
adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Household final
consumption
expenditure (HFCE)
1,4%
in Q4: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDP
Q3 2016
GDP
Q2 2017GDP
Q4: 2019
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GDP
Q4: 2019
The rise in Q4: 2019 was in line with retail trade sales
Quarter-on-quarter percentage growth in HFCESeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q4: 2019
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,1
-0,5
0,2
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
1,4%
HFCE by
purpose
0,0
0,0
0,0
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GDP
Q4: 2019
0,5
0,6
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
1,4%
HFCE by
durability
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
-0,1
0,3
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Government final
consumption
expenditure (GFCE)
-0,2%
in Q4: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDP
Q3 2016
GDP
Q2 2017GDP
Q4: 2019
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Decreased employment in all levels of government except local government contributed to the fall in Q4: 2019
Quarter-on-quarter percentage growth in GFCESeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Gross fixed capital
formation (GFCF)
in Q4: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
-10,0%
GDP
Q3 2016
GDP
Q2 2017GDP
Q4: 2019
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GDP
Q4: 2019
The fall in Q4: 2019 was largely a result of decreasing investment in machinery and equipment, transport equipment and non-
residential buildings
Quarter-on-quarter growth in GFCFSeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q4: 2019
0,1
-4,6
-2,2
-1,6
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
-10,0%
GFCF by
asset type
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
-0,4
-0,3
-0,9
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Change in inventories
-R40 330
million
in Q4: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDP
Q3 2016
GDP
Q2 2017GDP
Q4: 2019
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Change in inventories(R million)
In Q4: 2019, large inventory drawdowns were reported for the mining industry and trades
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GDP
Q4: 2019
in Q4: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
in Q4: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Exports Imports
2,3% -8,5%
GDP
Q3 2016
GDP
Q2 2017GDP
Q4: 2019
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Exports increased by 2,3% in Q4: 2019, largely influenced by an increase in exported precious metals and stones
Quarter-on-quarter percentage growth in exportsSeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Imports decreased by -8,5% in Q4: 2019, largely influenced by a fall in imported machinery and equipment, as well as vehicles
and transport equipment
Quarter-on-quarter percentage growth in importsSeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDP
Q4: 2019
GDP production: annual figures
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GDP
Q4: 2019
0,2%
in 2019(compared with 2018)
Sum of four quarters
Real GDP
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GDP
Q4: 2019
The South Africa economy
grew by 0,2% in 2019Annual GDP growth rate
Constant 2010 prices
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GDP
Q4: 2019
0,5
0,3
0,1
0,0
0,0
-0,1
-0,1
-0,2
GDP
0,2%
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
0,0
Industry growth
rates in 2019
-0,1
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GDP
Q4: 2019
GDPe: annual figures
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GDP
Q4: 2019
0,1%
in 2019(compared with 2018)
Sum of four quarters
Expenditure
on GDP
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Annual GDPe growth rate
Constant 2010 prices
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GDP
Q4: 2019
GDPe
0,1%
Growth in
2019
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
0,3
0,1
-0,7
-0,2
0,6
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GDP
Q4: 2019
GDP
Q4: 2019
Provincial estimates
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Which provincial economies
grew in 2018?Annual change: constant prices
LP
0,6%
MP
0,6%
KZN
0,7%
EC
0,6%
FS
-0,2%
NW
0,6%
NC
0,5%
WC
0,8%
GP
1,1%
South Africa
0,8%
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Provincial
contribution to
the national
economy- 2018 -
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Which industries drive your provincial economy?Top four largest industries in each province, 2018
Mining is the dominant industry for the following provinces, North West, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Northern cape.
Finance is the dominant industry in Gauteng and Western Cape
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GDP
Q4: 2019
How is each industry distributed across the country? (2018)
National agriculture production is concentrated in Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal
Industrial activity for eight of the ten industries is concentrated in Gauteng
Low High
Share of national production
WC
Agriculture
EC NC FS KZN NW GP MP LP
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity
Construction
Trade
Transport
Finance
Personal
Government
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Recap
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDP and expenditure on GDP growth rates
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Growth figures for Q4: 2019
-1,4%
in Q4: 2019(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
-0,5%
in Q4: 2019(year-on-year)
unadjusted
Real GDP
0,2%
Real GDP Real GDP
in 2019(compared with 2018)
Sum of four quarters
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GDP
Q4: 2019
Employment shares
Employment and GDP share per industry, Q4: 2019
Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100% Employment shares: Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), 4th quarter 2019
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Community and social services
0,7%
2,6%
5,4%
6,2%
7,8%
8,2%
10,5%
15,6%
19,8%
23,1%
Share of
nominal GDP
24,0%
16,6%
19,9%
13,0%
3,6%
9,8%
1,0%
8,9%
3,2%