GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FIRST QUARTER 2020 · 2020-06-11 · Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates...
Transcript of GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FIRST QUARTER 2020 · 2020-06-11 · Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates...
1GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Namibia Statistics AgencyP.O. Box 2133, FGI House, Post Street Mall,Windhoek, Namibia
Tel: +264 61 431 3200Fax: +264 61 431 3253
Email: [email protected]
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
FIRST QUARTER 2020
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 20202
Vision Statement
“To be a high performance institution in quality statistics delivery”
Core Values
Integrity Excellent Performance
Accuracy
Team Work
Accountability
Transparency
Mission Statement
“Leveraging on partnerships and innovative technologies, to produce and disseminate relevant, quality, timely statistics and spatial data that are fit-for-purpose in accordance with international standards and best practice”
3GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Preface ................................................................................................................4
1 Introduction ...................................................................................................5
2 Revisions .......................................................................................................6
3 Data sources and timeliness ..........................................................................7
4 Key findings ...................................................................................................7
4.1 Agriculture and forestry .................................................................................9
4.2 Fishing and fish processing on board ..........................................................11
4.3 Mining and quarrying ..................................................................................13
4.4 Manufacturing .............................................................................................17
4.5 Electricity and water ....................................................................................20
4.6 Construction .................................................................................................24
4.7 Wholesale and retail trade ..........................................................................27
4.8 Hotels and restaurants ................................................................................29
4.9 Transport and storage ..................................................................................31
4.10 Information and communications ............................................................35
4.11 Financial Services activities .......................................................................36
4.12 Real Estate activities and Professional, scientific & technical Services ....38
4.13 Administrative and support service ..........................................................41
Appendix 1 Methodological Notes .................................................................46
Table of Contents
This publication presents an overview of economic developments during the first quarter of 2020. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates assist in the analysis of short-term movements in the economy, as opposed to the annual GDP that provides in-depth and comprehensive view of the changes in the economy. Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) adopts the same concepts, definitions and structure as Annual National Accounts (ANA).
The domestic economy performance remained subdued in the first quarter of 2020, recording a contraction of 0.8 percent compared to a decline of 3.3 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2019.
Albeit a contraction, the recovery in the domestic economy is due to Education, Health, ‘Electricity and water’ and Fishing sectors that registered positive growths of 5.8 percent, 2.3 percent, 1.6 percent and 3.1 percent respectively. Furthermore, improved performance was recorded in ‘Information and communication’ and Construction sectors that posted growth rates of 6.2 percent, and 19.8 percent, respectively.
However, ‘Agriculture and forestry’, ’Mining and quarrying’, ‘Transport and storage’ and Manufacturing sectors recorded declines in real value added of 13.0 percent, 3.3 percent, 7.0 percent, and 8.3 percent, respectively. Additionally, declines were also reflected in ‘Wholesale and retail trade’ and ‘Hotels and restaurants’, ‘Administrative and support services’ and Public administration sectors.
Having pursued a fiscal consolidation policy, government is showing mixed signs of relaxing this policy and is reflected in the improved performance of ‘Education’ and ‘Health’ sectors however ‘Public administration and defence’ registered a decline in real value added. All the former two sectors posted positive growth of 5.8 percent, 2.3 percent and a decline of 2.5 percent for latter.
In real terms, GDP stood at N$ 34 971 million compared to N$ 35 239 million in the first quarter of 2019, shrinking by N$268 million whereas in nominal terms, GDP slowed to N$ 43 708 million when compared to N$ 44 087 million in first quarter of 2019, showing a decline of N$ 380 million.
I would therefore like to emphasise the importance of accurate and timely delivery of data from our stakeholders in the private and public sectors to the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA), on which the compilation of quarterly GDP depends. I wish to express my appreciation to all the data providers; both institutions and individuals, without whose contributions the publication would not have been possible.
Alex ShimuafeniStatistician-General & CEO Windhoek, June 2020
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 20204
PREFACE
1 IntroductionThe main purpose of compiling quarterly national accounts is to provide a timely and frequent picture of economic developments, unlike the annual national accounts that is published once a year. Quarterly data determine the short-term movements in the series, while the annual data determine the overall level and long-term movements in the series. In principle, the only difference between quarterly and annual national accounts is the reference period and the scope of coverage, where the annual national accounts provides a more comprehensive scope of data coverage.
The definitions and conceptual frameworks, as well as the accounts and accounting identities of the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA2008) are followed for both accounts. The NSA started the compilation of quarterly GDP at constant prices as a first step in compiling full quarterly national accounts. Quarterly current prices GDP compilation has been introduced and now forms part of the quarterly compilation.
Since quarterly and annual estimates are often based on different kinds of data sources, the annual total derived from the sum of the four quarters under consideration differs from annual estimates based on more comprehensive sources of data. Therefore, in order to make them comparable, quarterly estimates are benchmarked to their annual estimates during the compilation of the quarterly GDP.
Benchmarking is the process of combining a time series of high frequency data with less frequent but more accurate data.
Table A: Sectoral growth rate revisions for the fourth quarter of 2019
SectorsFourth quarter 2019 in
percent as recordedRevised fourth quarter
2019 in percentDifference
Agriculture 7.6 8.8 1.3
Fishing -8.5 -5.6 3.0
Mining and quarrying -3.3 -3.3 0.0
Manufacturing -5.0 -4.9 0.1
Electricity and water -6.5 -6.5 0.0
Construction 4.7 13.5 8.8
Wholesale and retail trade -1.9 -1.9 0.0
Hotels and restaurants 6.3 6.3 0.0
Transport and storage -26.2 -26.3 -0.1
Information and communations 8.8 10.8 2.0
Financial service activities 6.3 6.3 0.0
Real estate activities and professional services 3.3 3.3 0.0
Administrative and support services -9.0 -9.0 0.0
Public administration 32.1 32.1 0.0
Education 5.1 5.1 0.0
Health -11.0 -1.9 9.1
Other private services -1.9 -2.1 -0.2
All industries at basic prices 2.0 2.8 0.8
Taxes on products -3.0 -3.0 0.0
GDP 1.6 2.3 0.7
* When calculating the differences in the figures above, there may occur slight differences that are due to rounding to the nearest decimal.
2 RevisionsRevisions are part of good national accounts compilation best practices because they provide users with more accurate data. It provides an opportunity to incorporate new and more accurate information, and thereby improve the accuracy of the estimates without introducing breaks in the time series. Depending on the extent of availability of more comprehensive data, revisions are made to estimate quarters up to the last three years.
The revisions made in the fourth quarter of 2019 are outlined in Table A. Based on the revised changes, real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2019 posted a positive growth of 2.3 percent from a growth of 1.6 percent reported in the Preliminary National Accounts 2019 publication. The major revisions were observed in the following sectors: Health (9.1 percentage points) and Construction (8.8 percentage points). The revision in the sector was mainly necessitated by the updated data received from sources.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 20206
3 Data sources and timelinessThe sources for quarterly national accounts data are quarterly economic surveys and administrative data. Quarterly GDP estimates are released with a time lag of maximum 90 days from the reference quarter.
4 Key findings
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020GDP 3.7 5.0 3.9 10.3 8.2 5.1 4.8 0.4 2.9 -2.4 -1.6 0.1 -1.6 0.7 -1.6 1.6 1.9 4.1 0.7 -3.7 -3.3 -2.1 -0.6 2.3 -0.8
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Perc
enta
ge
Figure 1: GDP growth rate
The real GDP contracted by 0.8 percent during the period under review, compared to a decline of 3.3 percent in the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 1). The recovery in the domestic economy is due to Education, Health, ‘Electricity and water’ and Fishing sectors that registered positive growths of 5.8 percent, 2.3 percent, 1.6 percent and 3.1 percent respectively. Furthermore, improved performance was recorded in ‘Information and communication’ and Construction sectors that posted growth rates of 6.2 percent, and 19.8 percent, respectively.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020GDP 3.7 5.0 3.9 10.3 8.2 5.1 4.8 0.4 2.9 -2.4 -1.6 0.1 -1.6 0.7 -1.6 1.6 1.9 4.1 0.7 -3.7 -3.3 -2.1 -0.6 2.3 -0.8
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Perc
enta
ge
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020GDP 3.7 5.0 3.9 10.3 8.2 5.1 4.8 0.4 2.9 -2.4 -1.6 0.1 -1.6 0.7 -1.6 1.6 1.9 4.1 0.7 -3.7 -3.3 -2.1 -0.6 2.3 -0.8
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Perc
enta
ge
7GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
However, ‘Agriculture and forestry’, ’Mining and quarrying’, ‘Transport and storage’ and Manufacturing sectors recorded declines in real value added of 13.0 percent, 3.3 percent, 7.0 percent, and 8.3 percent, respectively.
Additionally, declines were also reflected in ‘Wholesale and retail trade’ and ‘Hotels and restaurants’, ‘Administrative and support services’ and Public administration sectors. Figure 2 shows the growth rates of the selected sectors for the period under review.
-13.0
-8.3-7.0
-4.1-3.3
-2.5
-0.5
1.1 1.62.3 2.4 2.4
3.1
5.8
19.8
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Agricu
lture
Manufa
cturin
g
Transp
ort & st
orage
Hotels &
Restau
rants
Mining and q
uarryin
g
Publi
c Adm
.
Wholesal
e & Re
tail Tr
ade
Taxe
s on p
rodu
cts
Electr
icity
& wate
rHea
lth
Inform
ation
& commun
icatio
ns
Fin se
rvice
s actv
.
Fishing
Educ
ation
Constr
uctio
n
Perc
enta
ges
Figure 2: Selected sectors value added performance growth rates
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 20208
4.1 Agriculture and forestryThe Agriculture and forestry sector recorded a deeper contraction of 13.0 percent in real value added during the first quarter of 2020, relative to a contraction of 5.1 percent registered during the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 3).
The contraction was predominantly driven by the persistent drop of the Livestock farming subsector that was estimated to have registered a decline of 21.5 percent in real value added, during the quarter under review relative to a contraction of 7.8 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2019.
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Perc
enta
ge
Value Added Agriculture Value Added Liv estock
Figure 3: Agriculture real value added growth rate
The poor performance of the Livestock farming subsector emanates from a decline in both cattle and small stock marketing. Cattle export to South Africa and Angola registered a contraction of 22.9 percent during the first quarter of 2020 relative to a contraction of 26.5 percent in 2019, whereas, Cattle export to butchers and abattoirs registered even a deeper contraction of 49.2 percent during the quarter under review compared to a growth of 5.9 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2019.
Similarly, small stock marketed to abattoirs and butchers slowed, registering a contraction of 59.9 percent relative to a growth of 3.7 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 4). Moreover, export of small stock to South Africa and Angola contracted, registering a double-digit decline of 51.6 percent relative to a growth of 28.9 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2019.
9GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Num
ber o
f Liv
esto
ck In
dex
2015
= 1
00
Figure 4: Number of livestock marketed, volume index 2015 = 100
The Crop farming subsector on the other hand, performed relatively well during the quarter under review, registering a double digit growth of 17.2 percent in real value added relative to a growth of 3.6 percent recorded in 2019. The robust performance in the subsector comes on the backdrop of good rainfall received.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202010
4.2 Fishing and fish processing on board
The sector ‘Fishing and fish processing on board’, registered a growth of 3.1 percent in real value added in comparison to a decline of 0.4 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 5).
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percen
tage
Figure 5: Fishing and fish processing on board real value added growth rate
The growth witnessed in the sector is mainly driven by the positive performance of both demersal and midwater fisheries landings, respectively (Figure 6).
11GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Volu
me
inde
x 20
15 =
100
Figure 6: Fish landings, volume index 2015= 100
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202012
4.3 Mining and quarrying
Mining and quarrying sector declined by 3.3 percent in real value added during the first quarter of 2020, compared to a decline of 6.5 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 7).
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percen
tange
Figure 7: Mining and quarrying real value added growth rate
The contraction in the Mining and quarrying sector is attributed to the Uranium mining and ‘Other mining & quarrying’ sub-sectors that recorded declines in real value added of 31.8 percent and 12.6 percent, respectively. The poor performance in the Uranium subsector is reflected in the reduction of production when compared to same quarter of last year (Figure 8).
13GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
-
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
3,750
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Shor
t Ton
s
Figure 8 Uranium production in short tons
However, Diamond mining and Metal ores subsectors recorded positive growths in real value added of 6.3 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. The performance in the Diamond mining subsector is attributed to an increase of 6.5 percent in production during the period under review (Figure 9).
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cara
ts in
thou
sand
s
Diamonds Production Diamonds Sales
Figure 9: Diamond production and sales in thousands of carats
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202014
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Volu
me
inde
x 20
10=1
00
Min ing Total Mining Index 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Mining Total Mining Index)
Figure 10: Total mining production volume index 2015 = 100
The subsector Metal ores registered a strong growth of 5.3 percent in real value added compared to a decline of 5.9 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The performance in metal ores is attributed to growth in gold and lead productions that registered (11.1 percent and 40.9 percent), respectively (Figure 11).
15GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Volu
me
inde
x 20
10=1
00
Figure 11: Metal ores volume index 2015 = 100
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202016
4.4 ManufacturingThe manufacturing sector recorded a decline in real value added of 8.3 percent during the first quarter of 2020 compared to a growth of 5.9 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 12).
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percen
tage
Figure 12: Manufacturing real value added growth rate
The contraction in the sector is observed in real value added of the subsectors Beverages, Basic metals, and Diamond processing that recorded negative growths of 2.1 percent, 9.5 percent and 18.4 percent during the first quarter of 2020 compared to strong growths of 14.6 percent, 20.5 percent and 16.1 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019, respectively (Figure 13).
17GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Perc
enta
ge
Beverages Basic metals Diamond processing
Figure 13: Beverages, basic metals and diamond processing real value added growth rate1
Similarly, subsectors such as Non-metallic mineral products, Meat processing and Fabricated metal products also recorded negative growth rates of 20.6 percent, 53.5 percent and 11.7 percent in real value added in the first quarter of 2020 compared to strong growths of 8.3 percent, 7.5 percent and 9.3 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 14).
1 Figure 13, In order to improve read-ability, is limited the chart scale to 40 percentage points and 80 percentage points
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202018
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Perc
enta
nge
Non-metallic minerals Fabricated metal products Meat processing
Figure 14: Non-metallic minerals, fabricated metal products and meat processing real value added growth rate
Other subsector’s such as Dairy products, ‘Textiles and wearing apparel’, ‘Chemicals and chemical products’, ‘Paper products, publishing and printing’, and Fish processing also registered negative growths in real value added of 5.6 percent, 59.3 percent, 13.6 percent, 5.2 percent and 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, respectively.
However, subsectors Grain mill products and Other food products registered positive growths of 10.3 percent and 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2020.
In addition, ‘Rubber and plastic products’, ‘Leather and leather products’ and ‘Wood and wood products’ subsectors registered positive growth of 5.9 percent, 4.2 percent and 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2020, respectively.
19GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
4.5 Electricity and waterThe electricity and water sector registered a positive growth in real value added of 1.6 percent during the first quarter of 2020 relative to a double digit contraction of 10.2 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 15).
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percen
tage
Figure 15: Electricity and water real value added growth rate
The performance of the sector is attributed to the water subsector that registered a growth 3.7 percent in real value added relative to a contraction of 22.1 percent recorded in first quarter of 2019. The electricity subsector registered a flat growth of 0.0 percent during the quarter under review relative to a growth of 1.8 percent recorded during the same quarter of 2019.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202020
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Perc
enta
ge
Electricity Value Added Water Value Added
Figure 16: Electricity and water subsectors real value added growth rate2
The volume of electricity sales stood at 845 033 kWh, a contraction of 4.5 percent (Figure 17).
2 Figure 16, in order to improve read-ability, is limited the chart scale to 40 percentage points and 30 percentage points.
21GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ions
KW
H
Figure 17: Total units of electricity sold in millions of KWH
During the quarter under review, the country imported 596 284 kWh of electricity, a contraction of 19.7 during the first quarter of 2020 (Figure 18).
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202022
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ions
of
KWH
Own generation Imports
Figure 18: Sources of electricity in millions of KWH
23GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
4.6 Construction3 The construction sector recorded a strong growth of 19.8 percent in real value added for the first quarter of 2020 compared to a negative growth of 26.6 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 19).
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Perc
enta
ge
Figure 19: Construction real value added growth rate
The strong performance in the sector is attributed to buildings completed, that posted a strong growth in real value of 54.5 percent during the first quarter of 2020 compared to a reduction of 35.8 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 20).
In addition, the production of cement also posted a strong growth in real value added of 30.6 percent compared to a growth of 2.2 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
3 The methodology to estimate value added for construction uses a simple moving average of two quarters of government construction, import of cement, and building completed as construction spans over time
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202024
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ions
N$
Figure 20: Real value of buildings completed – millions N$
However, the government expenditure on construction recorded a negative growth in real value added of 5.6 percent compared to a decline of 9.0 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 21).
25GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ions
N$
Figure 21: Real value of Government Expenditure on construction– millions N$
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202026
4.7 Wholesale and retail trade
The wholesale and retail trade sector registered a decline of 0.5 percent in real value added during the first quarter of 2020, compared to a decline of 5.7 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 22).
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percen
tage
Figure 22: Wholesale and retail trade real value added growth rate
The improved performance of the sector is reflected in the sales of retail and wholesalers subsectors that recorded improved sales compared to same quarter last year, (Figure 23).
27GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ions
N$
Figure 23: Total revenue of wholesale and retail trade – millions N$
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202028
4.8 Hotels and restaurantsThe hotels and restaurants sector recorded a decline in real value added of 4.1 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to a decline of 5.1 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2019 (Figure 24).
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percen
tage
Figure 24: Hotels and restaurants value added growth rate
The performance in the sector is emanated both from hotels and restaurants subsectors that registered declines in real value added of 2.6 percent and 10.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to declines of 14.3 percent and 5.8 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. (Figure 25).
29GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percen
tage
Hotels Restaurants
Figure 25: Growth rate in number of bed nights and room nights sold
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202030
4.9 Transport and storageThe ‘Transport and storage’ sector recorded a decline of 7.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 in real value added, compared to a growth of 17.3 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 26).
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percen
tage
Figure 26: Transport and storage real value added growth rate
The poor performance of the sector is mainly attributed to ‘Air transport’, ‘Airport services’, ‘’Post and ‘Couriers services’, ’Port services’ and ‘Railway transport’, which recorded declines of 53.5 percent, 18.4 percent, 12.0 percent, 11.0 percent and 5.2 percent in real value added, respectively.
Air transport subsectors registered a decline of 53.5 percent in real value added, compared to a growth of 6.9 percent registered in the same quarter of 2019. The performance of the sector is attributed the number of passengers that declined in the period under review, compared to the corresponding quarter of 2019.
While, the Airport services subsectors registered a decline of 18.4 percent in real value added of first quarter 2020, compared to a decline of 3.7 percent registered in the same quarter of 2019. This is due to the decline in the number of aircrafts landed at the airport in first quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 27).
31GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Figure 27: Value added and aircraft landed
‘Post and couriers’, ‘Railway transport’ and ‘Freight by road transport’ subsectors are also estimated to have recorded declines of 12.0 percent, 5.2 percent and 0.6 percent in real value added in 2020 first quarter, respectively (Figure 28).
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202032
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Thou
sand
s of t
onne
s
Source: Trans NamibFigure 28: Volume of freight transported in thousands of tonnes
Port services subsectors is estimated to have recorded a negative growth of 11.0 percent in real value added, compared to a positive of 11.6 percent registered in the same quarter of 2019. This is due to the decrease in the cargo handled at the ports in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 29).
33GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Thou
sand
s of t
onne
s
Source: Namibia Ports AuthorityFigure 29: Cargo handled in thousands of tonnes
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202034
4.10 Information and communicationsIn the first quarter of 2020, ‘Information and communication’ sector recorded a positive growth of 6.2 percent in real value added, compared to 6.1 percent growth registered in the same quarter of 2019 (Figure 30).
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Minutes calls Value Added
Figure 30: Information and communication value added growth rate and minutes calls
The performance in the sector is attributed to the number of minutes used that have recorded an increase under the period review.
35GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
4.11 Financial services activitiesThe ‘Financial and insurance’ sector recorded a slow growth of 2.4 percent in real value added in the first quarter of 2020 when compared to an increase of 4.2 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. (Figure 31).
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percen
tage
Figure 31: Financial services activities value added growth rate
The slow growth is attributed to the banking subsector that recorded a decline of 1.3 percent in real value added when compared to a decline of 0.4 percent estimated in the corresponding quarter (Figure 32). The poor performance is reflected in the sluggish growths of private credit extension and contraction in instalment credit.
On the other hand, the insurance subsector recorded a growth of 6.2 percent in real value added when compared to a strong growth of 9.3 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202036
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Perc
enta
ge
Value added Banking service Value Added Insurance & others
Figure 32: Banking and insurance value added growth rate
Figure 33 below shows deposits made by all sectors; claims made by the private and net claims by the government sector since the first quarter of 2014.
Year on year total deposits made by all sectors rose by 11.9 percent during the period under review. During the period under review, total stock of deposits stood at N$ 113,776 million compared to N$ 101,692 million recorded during a similar quarter of 2019.
Furthermore, claims by central government increased by 31.5 percent in the first quarter of 2020, which recorded N$ 26,979 million in comparison to N$ 20,512 million in the corresponding year.
37GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ions
N$
Deposits by all sectors Claims by private sector Net claims by central government
Source: Bank of NamibiaFigure 33: Deposits and claims
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202038
4.12 Real Estate activities and Professional, scientific and technical services
Real estate activities and Professional, scientific and technical services sectors recorded a robust growth of 2.7 percent in real value added in the first quarter of 2020 as compared to the contraction of 0.3 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Value added Real Estate Activities Value Added Professional, scientific and technical services
Figure 34: Value added growth Real Estate activities and professional, scientific and technical services
The performance is attributed to the real estate sector that recorded a growth of 3.5 percent in real value added, while the professional, scientific and technical services sector recorded a decline of 4.2 percent under the period under review (Figure 34).
39GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
4.13 Administrative and support services
Administrative and support services dropped by 5.0 percent in real value added in the first quarter of 2020 as compared to a strong growth of 7.3 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The persistent slow economic activities remain prevalent in the demand of supporting businesses (Figure 35).
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Figure 35: Value added growth Administrative and support services
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202040
4.14 Public Administration and Defence, Education and Health
Public administration and defence sector posted a contraction of 2.5 percent in real value added when compared to a decline of 14.3 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2019. The performance of the sector is driven by marginal decreases in the lower employment grades while maintaining conformity of the consolidation policy.
The Education sector maintained a positive trend by recording a growth of 5.8 percent in real value added in the first quarter of 2020 when compared to 0.2 percent observed in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
In addition, the Health sector registered a growth of 2.3 percent in real value added during the period under review compared to a decline of 6.5 percent in 2019. An increase in the number of health workers is the attributer to the performance in the sector.
41GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Table B: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Current Prices - million N$
Year QuarterAgriculture
and ForestryFishing
Mining and
quarrying
Manufac-turing
Electricity and water
Construc-tion
Wholesale and retail
trade
Hotels and restau-rants
Transport and storage
2013 1 963 1,062 2,566 3,157 701 1,141 2,729 375 699 2 2,042 945 3,350 3,132 638 917 3,388 391 728 3 778 802 2,770 2,794 566 1,307 3,584 554 848 4 1,401 825 3,238 3,045 616 1,245 3,787 497 798
2014 1 920 1,181 2,365 2,673 874 1,895 3,690 452 842 2 2,770 1,113 3,911 3,095 773 1,163 3,877 507 861 3 1,005 1,181 3,077 3,249 660 1,885 4,367 760 1,027 4 1,527 657 3,471 4,054 603 1,869 4,518 648 928
2015 1 936 1,023 2,967 3,654 719 2,320 3,890 609 1,111 2 1,779 1,017 3,303 4,332 411 1,703 4,035 630 1,067 3 894 1,072 3,035 4,085 893 1,931 4,298 798 1,238 4 1,494 753 3,660 4,454 522 2,106 4,171 728 1,211
2016 1 897 1,155 3,486 4,401 1,337 1,297 3,950 644 1,129 2 1,723 1,310 3,420 4,614 734 1,156 4,021 632 1,175 3 830 1,133 3,552 4,509 2,079 1,340 4,140 891 1,438 4 1,836 921 4,381 4,809 1,012 1,154 4,648 790 1,503
2017 1 1,045 1,343 2,882 4,504 1,767 809 4,537 651 1,523 2 3,015 958 2,972 4,894 870 732 4,626 709 1,202 3 1,384 1,201 4,195 5,206 2,158 1,194 4,516 938 1,264 4 2,027 992 3,959 5,613 978 1,259 4,863 737 1,545
2018 1 1,368 1,194 3,536 5,028 2,009 1,171 4,506 663 1,229 2 2,885 1,186 3,550 5,300 1,167 595 4,732 687 1,291 3 1,387 1,210 4,357 5,361 2,409 1,022 4,136 874 1,509 4 2,237 930 4,566 5,719 1,081 1,039 4,545 742 1,680
2019 1 1,241 1,197 4,013 5,078 1,921 915 4,474 755 1,491 2 2,026 1,349 3,386 5,712 1,018 865 4,870 896 1,317 3 1,291 1,306 4,569 4,861 2,199 1,185 4,105 1,243 1,426 4 2,288 1,119 4,604 5,330 979 1,150 4,732 1,000 1,199
2020 1 1,062 1,408 3,163 4,703 1,815 1,033 4,646 831 1,435
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202042
Table B: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Current Prices - million N$ (Cont)
YearQua-rter
Information and Commu-
nication
Financial service
activities
Real estate and
Professional services activities
Admini-strative and
support services
Public admi-
nistration
Edu-cation
Health Other All indust.
at basic prices
Taxes on products
GDP at market prices
2013 1 535 1,129 1,846 332 3,930 2,299 862 669 24,993 2,036 27,030 2 266 1,733 2,038 436 2,638 2,338 1,038 662 26,682 2,308 28,990 3 619 2,964 1,978 424 4,058 3,069 1,007 672 28,792 2,411 31,203 4 327 1,781 1,804 493 2,816 2,880 1,124 698 27,376 2,511 29,887
2014 1 792 1,001 1,921 307 3,757 2,997 1,397 740 27,805 2,242 30,047 2 399 2,137 1,645 459 3,160 3,024 954 775 30,622 2,317 32,939 3 861 2,191 2,520 402 4,444 3,438 936 801 32,805 2,679 35,483 4 475 2,538 2,034 578 3,436 3,159 1,285 818 32,597 2,914 35,511
2015 1 747 2,524 1,685 321 4,317 3,226 1,467 826 32,341 2,574 34,915 2 364 2,345 2,111 505 3,662 3,069 1,113 838 32,285 2,699 34,984 3 677 2,356 2,150 521 4,940 3,265 1,146 854 34,154 3,061 37,215 4 319 2,949 2,659 586 3,787 3,247 1,457 873 34,975 3,118 38,093
2016 1 733 2,885 1,739 340 4,615 3,908 1,588 895 34,998 2,935 37,933 2 399 2,270 2,170 417 3,602 3,510 1,316 919 33,386 2,980 36,367 3 765 2,843 2,839 391 4,908 3,734 1,258 943 37,594 3,212 40,805 4 451 2,889 2,570 594 4,520 3,732 1,473 969 38,253 3,521 41,774
2017 1 859 2,895 1,925 361 5,468 4,355 1,825 983 37,730 3,134 40,865 2 438 2,961 2,389 416 3,955 3,991 1,428 1,002 36,559 3,177 39,736 3 824 3,330 2,795 469 5,063 4,112 1,521 1,019 41,188 3,317 44,505 4 501 2,909 3,198 553 5,137 4,080 1,579 1,034 40,963 3,460 44,424
2018 1 551 3,058 2,673 308 5,966 4,253 1,936 1,045 40,493 3,278 43,772 2 446 3,578 2,360 419 4,686 4,252 1,166 1,059 39,359 3,473 42,832 3 832 3,406 2,959 542 5,063 4,412 1,503 1,069 42,052 3,293 45,344 4 630 3,802 2,779 629 5,062 4,524 1,555 1,075 42,595 3,509 46,104
2019 1 616 3,464 2,032 342 5,757 4,558 1,903 1,076 40,835 3,252 44,087 2 496 2,829 3,132 450 4,206 4,601 1,183 1,077 39,412 3,466 42,878 3 667 3,197 3,225 460 5,582 4,806 1,454 1,078 42,654 3,196 45,850 4 802 2,983 3,100 577 5,399 4,875 1,466 1,078 42,681 3,448 46,129
2020 1 797 3,161 2,702 336 5,840 4,833 1,837 1,078 40,679 3,028 43,708
43GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Table C: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Current Prices – Percentage share to GDP
Year QuarterAgriculture
and ForestryFishing
Mining and
quarrying
Manufac-turing
Electricity and water
Construc-tion
Wholesale and retail
trade
Hotels and restau-rants
Transport and storage
2013 1 3.6 3.9 9.5 11.7 2.6 4.2 10.1 1.4 2.62 7.0 3.3 11.6 10.8 2.2 3.2 11.7 1.4 2.53 2.5 2.6 8.9 9.0 1.8 4.2 11.5 1.8 2.74 4.7 2.8 10.8 10.2 2.1 4.2 12.7 1.7 2.7
2014 1 3.1 3.9 7.9 8.9 2.9 6.3 12.3 1.5 2.8 2 8.4 3.4 11.9 9.4 2.3 3.5 11.8 1.5 2.6 3 2.8 3.3 8.7 9.2 1.9 5.3 12.3 2.1 2.9 4 4.3 1.8 9.8 11.4 1.7 5.3 12.7 1.8 2.6
2015 1 2.7 2.9 8.5 10.5 2.1 6.6 11.1 1.7 3.2 2 5.1 2.9 9.4 12.4 1.2 4.9 11.5 1.8 3.0 3 2.4 2.9 8.2 11.0 2.4 5.2 11.5 2.1 3.3 4 3.9 2.0 9.6 11.7 1.4 5.5 10.9 1.9 3.2
2016 1 2.4 3.0 9.2 11.6 3.5 3.4 10.4 1.7 3.0 2 4.7 3.6 9.4 12.7 2.0 3.2 11.1 1.7 3.2 3 2.0 2.8 8.7 11.0 5.1 3.3 10.1 2.2 3.5 4 4.4 2.2 10.5 11.5 2.4 2.8 11.1 1.9 3.6
2017 1 2.6 3.3 7.1 11.0 4.3 2.0 11.1 1.6 3.7 2 7.6 2.4 7.5 12.3 2.2 1.8 11.6 1.8 3.0 3 3.1 2.7 9.4 11.7 4.8 2.7 10.1 2.1 2.8 4 4.6 2.2 8.9 12.6 2.2 2.8 10.9 1.7 3.5
2018 1 3.1 2.7 8.1 11.5 4.6 2.7 10.3 1.5 2.8 2 6.7 2.8 8.3 12.4 2.7 1.4 11.0 1.6 3.0 3 3.1 2.7 9.6 11.8 5.3 2.3 9.1 1.9 3.3 4 4.9 2.0 9.9 12.4 2.3 2.3 9.9 1.6 3.6
2019 1 2.8 2.7 9.1 11.5 4.4 2.1 10.1 1.7 3.4 2 4.7 3.1 7.9 13.3 2.4 2.0 11.4 2.1 3.1 3 2.8 2.8 10.0 10.6 4.8 2.6 9.0 2.7 3.1 4 5.0 2.4 10.0 11.6 2.1 2.5 10.3 2.2 2.6
2020 1 2.4 3.2 7.2 10.8 4.2 2.4 10.6 1.9 3.3
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202044
Table C: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2010 Prices – Percentage changes (Cont...)
YearQua-rter
Information and
Commu-nication
Financial service
activities
Real estate and
Professional services activities
Admini-strative
and support services
Public admi-
nistration
Edu-cation
HealthOther
private services
All indust. at basic prices
Taxes on
pro-ducts
GDP at market prices
2013 1 2.0 4.2 6.8 1.2 14.5 8.5 3.2 2.5 92.5 7.5 100.02 0.9 6.0 7.0 1.5 9.1 8.1 3.6 2.3 92.0 8.0 100.03 2.0 9.5 6.3 1.4 13.0 9.8 3.2 2.2 92.3 7.7 100.04 1.1 6.0 6.0 1.6 9.4 9.6 3.8 2.3 91.6 8.4 100.0
2014 1 2.6 3.3 6.4 1.0 12.5 10.0 4.7 2.5 92.5 7.5 100.0 2 1.2 6.5 5.0 1.4 9.6 9.2 2.9 2.4 93.0 7.0 100.0 3 2.4 6.2 7.1 1.1 12.5 9.7 2.6 2.3 92.5 7.5 100.0 4 1.3 7.1 5.7 1.6 9.7 8.9 3.6 2.3 91.8 8.2 100.0
2015 1 2.1 7.2 4.8 0.9 12.4 9.2 4.2 2.4 92.6 7.4 100.0 2 1.0 6.7 6.0 1.4 10.5 8.8 3.2 2.4 92.3 7.7 100.0 3 1.8 6.3 5.8 1.4 13.3 8.8 3.1 2.3 91.8 8.2 100.0 4 0.8 7.7 7.0 1.5 9.9 8.5 3.8 2.3 91.8 8.2 100.0
2016 1 1.9 7.6 4.6 0.9 12.2 10.3 4.2 2.4 92.3 7.7 100.0 2 1.1 6.2 6.0 1.1 9.9 9.7 3.6 2.5 91.8 8.2 100.0 3 1.9 7.0 7.0 1.0 12.0 9.2 3.1 2.3 92.1 7.9 100.0 4 1.1 6.9 6.2 1.4 10.8 8.9 3.5 2.3 91.6 8.4 100.0
2017 1 2.1 7.1 4.7 0.9 13.4 10.7 4.5 2.4 92.3 7.7 100.0 2 1.1 7.5 6.0 1.0 10.0 10.0 3.6 2.5 92.0 8.0 100.0 3 1.9 7.5 6.3 1.1 11.4 9.2 3.4 2.3 92.5 7.5 100.0 4 1.1 6.5 7.2 1.2 11.6 9.2 3.6 2.3 92.2 7.8 100.0
2018 1 1.3 7.0 6.1 0.7 13.6 9.7 4.4 2.4 92.5 7.5 100.0 2 1.0 8.4 5.5 1.0 10.9 9.9 2.7 2.5 91.9 8.1 100.0 3 1.8 7.5 6.5 1.2 11.2 9.7 3.3 2.4 92.7 7.3 100.0 4 1.4 8.2 6.0 1.4 11.0 9.8 3.4 2.3 92.4 7.6 100.0
2019 1 1.4 7.9 4.6 0.8 13.1 10.3 4.3 2.4 92.6 7.4 100.0 2 1.2 6.6 7.3 1.0 9.8 10.7 2.8 2.5 91.9 8.1 100.0 3 1.5 7.0 7.0 1.0 12.2 10.5 3.2 2.4 93.0 7.0 100.0 4 1.7 6.5 6.7 1.3 11.7 10.6 3.2 2.3 92.5 7.5 100.0
2020 1 1.8 7.2 6.2 0.8 13.4 11.1 4.2 2.5 93.1 6.9 100.0
45GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Table D: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2015 Prices - million N$
Year QuarterAgriculture
and ForestryFishing
Mining and
quarrying
Manufac-turing
Electricity and water
Construc-tion
Wholesale and retail
trade
Hotels and restau-rants
Transport and storage
2013 1 1,202 908 3,269 4,205 660 1,133 2,854 481 865 2 2,452 968 3,434 4,312 563 1,085 3,477 522 821 3 994 1,144 3,566 3,994 526 1,164 3,591 738 987 4 1,339 866 3,525 4,092 542 1,287 3,707 650 849
2014 1 963 1,169 3,120 3,833 617 1,484 3,488 547 948 2 2,722 1,152 3,463 4,235 584 1,462 3,577 583 880 3 992 1,184 2,997 4,262 588 1,640 4,031 834 1,104 4 1,408 751 3,498 4,716 620 1,985 4,243 694 938
2015 1 885 1,126 3,222 3,897 701 2,054 3,758 609 1,215 2 1,855 1,098 3,300 4,369 605 2,066 3,988 626 1,067 3 889 1,005 3,350 4,028 580 1,939 4,338 795 1,246 4 1,475 635 3,094 4,231 659 2,003 4,310 733 1,097
2016 1 780 1,215 3,103 4,465 816 1,525 4,060 638 1,145 2 1,814 1,283 2,463 4,544 742 1,054 4,085 619 1,099 3 747 1,062 2,990 4,581 706 1,084 4,093 866 1,336 4 1,373 756 3,020 4,617 834 1,084 4,400 759 1,245
2017 1 873 1,312 3,322 4,218 791 891 3,932 606 1,225 2 2,168 1,180 2,894 4,438 633 760 3,868 651 1,021 3 928 1,062 3,325 4,613 579 911 3,713 876 1,174 4 1,338 797 3,683 4,755 587 1,090 3,980 711 1,171
2018 1 875 1,277 3,984 4,393 849 1,016 3,681 680 1,063 2 1,885 1,198 4,024 4,507 752 747 3,873 714 1,004 3 899 1,111 3,725 4,530 672 729 3,354 884 1,123 4 1,457 772 3,617 4,781 660 840 3,618 704 1,240
2019 1 830 1,273 3,723 4,651 763 747 3,472 645 1,247 2 1,340 1,372 2,998 5,164 780 746 3,724 716 1,017 3 853 1,249 3,432 4,491 614 884 3,105 953 1,102 4 1,586 729 3,496 4,546 617 953 3,550 749 914
2020 1 722 1,312 3,602 4,263 775 894 3,455 619 1,160
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202046
Table D: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2015 Prices - million N$ (Cont)
YearQua-rter
Information and Commu-
nication
Financial service
activities
Real estate and
Professional services activities
Admini-strative and
support services
Public admi-
nistration
Edu-cation
Health Other All indust.
at basic prices
Taxes on products
GDP at market prices
2013 1 437 2,120 1,894 366 4,306 2,741 877 788 29,107 2,381 31,488 2 446 2,212 2,012 475 2,862 2,693 1,015 776 30,125 2,598 32,723 3 519 2,294 2,002 457 4,317 3,470 958 777 31,500 2,682 34,182 4 434 2,379 2,022 523 2,916 3,227 1,051 791 30,201 2,762 32,963
2014 1 444 2,397 1,988 326 3,727 3,110 1,301 819 30,278 2,384 32,662 2 429 2,450 2,030 474 3,046 3,143 893 838 31,961 2,406 34,367 3 514 2,545 2,056 420 4,267 3,579 890 850 32,751 2,769 35,520 4 502 2,577 2,118 595 3,351 3,302 1,253 852 33,403 2,967 36,369
2015 1 523 2,501 2,035 332 4,310 3,244 1,482 847 32,741 2,606 35,347 2 525 2,517 2,135 510 3,681 3,083 1,132 845 33,403 2,707 36,110 3 528 2,566 2,184 515 4,955 3,264 1,151 847 34,181 3,042 37,223 4 531 2,590 2,251 575 3,761 3,216 1,417 852 33,430 3,098 36,528
2016 1 539 2,539 2,146 325 4,150 3,469 1,747 860 33,523 2,834 36,358 2 538 2,538 2,199 393 3,761 3,132 1,308 867 32,438 2,809 35,248 3 583 2,582 2,172 358 5,093 3,343 1,210 872 33,679 2,957 36,637 4 574 2,629 2,228 546 3,681 3,304 1,424 876 33,350 3,207 36,557
2017 1 553 2,609 2,179 320 4,247 3,398 1,692 871 33,039 2,733 35,772 2 543 2,648 2,192 365 3,922 3,307 1,273 869 32,732 2,749 35,480 3 615 2,688 2,276 415 4,962 2,951 1,210 868 33,165 2,876 36,042 4 657 2,710 2,265 486 3,915 3,367 1,766 868 34,147 2,987 37,134
2018 1 571 2,606 2,254 264 4,622 3,007 1,647 867 33,656 2,784 36,440 2 571 2,622 2,279 360 4,084 3,319 1,226 867 34,033 2,919 36,952 3 593 2,678 2,265 458 5,113 3,358 1,166 865 33,523 2,771 36,294 4 580 2,747 2,311 517 3,341 3,405 1,374 860 32,824 2,927 35,751
2019 1 605 2,715 2,247 284 3,962 3,013 1,540 853 32,568 2,671 35,239 2 610 2,786 2,282 371 4,022 3,406 1,166 848 33,346 2,824 36,170 3 656 2,875 2,328 376 5,139 3,444 1,099 844 33,447 2,613 36,060 4 643 2,919 2,386 471 4,414 3,579 1,348 842 33,742 2,838 36,580
2020 1 643 2,779 2,308 269 3,863 3,188 1,576 842 32,270 2,702 34,971
47GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Table E: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2015 Prices – Percentage changes
Year QuarterAgriculture
and ForestryFishing
Mining and
quarrying
Manufac-turing
Electricity and water
Construc-tion
Wholesale and retail
trade
Hotels and restau-rants
Transport and storage
2013 1234
2014 1 -19.9 28.8 -4.6 -8.9 -6.6 31.0 22.2 13.5 9.5 2 11.0 19.0 0.8 -1.8 3.8 34.7 2.9 11.7 7.2 3 -0.2 3.5 -16.0 6.7 11.8 40.9 12.2 13.0 11.8 4 5.2 -13.3 -0.8 15.2 14.5 54.3 14.4 6.7 10.6
2015 1 -8.2 -3.7 3.3 1.7 13.7 38.3 7.7 11.5 28.2 2 -31.9 -4.7 -4.7 3.2 3.6 41.3 11.5 7.4 21.3 3 -10.4 -15.1 11.8 -5.5 -1.4 18.3 7.6 -4.6 12.9 4 4.7 -15.4 -11.6 -10.3 6.2 0.9 1.6 5.6 16.9
2016 1 -11.9 7.9 -3.7 14.6 16.4 -25.7 8.0 4.7 -5.7 2 -2.2 16.9 -25.4 4.0 22.6 -49.0 2.4 -1.1 3.0 3 -16.0 5.7 -10.7 13.7 21.7 -44.1 -5.7 8.9 7.2 4 -6.9 19.0 -2.4 9.1 26.7 -45.9 2.1 3.6 13.5
2017 1 11.9 7.9 7.1 -5.5 -3.1 -41.6 -3.1 -5.0 7.0 2 19.5 -8.0 17.5 -2.3 -14.7 -27.9 -5.3 5.1 -7.1 3 24.3 0.0 11.2 0.7 -17.9 -16.0 -9.3 1.1 -12.1 4 -2.5 5.5 21.9 3.0 -29.7 0.6 -9.6 -6.3 -5.9
2018 1 0.2 -2.6 19.9 4.2 7.3 14.1 -6.4 12.2 -13.3 2 -13.1 1.5 39.0 1.5 18.8 -1.7 0.1 9.8 -1.7 3 -3.1 4.5 12.0 -1.8 16.0 -19.9 -9.7 1.0 -4.4 4 8.9 -3.1 -1.8 0.5 12.5 -23.0 -9.1 -1.0 5.9
2019 1 -5.1 -0.4 -6.5 5.9 -10.2 -26.6 -5.7 -5.1 17.3 2 -28.9 14.6 -25.5 14.6 3.7 -0.2 -3.8 0.2 1.3 3 -5.2 12.5 -7.8 -0.9 -8.6 21.3 -7.4 7.8 -1.9 4 8.8 -5.6 -3.3 -4.9 -6.5 13.5 -1.9 6.3 -26.3
2020 1 -13.0 3.1 -3.3 -8.3 1.6 19.8 -0.5 -4.1 -7.0
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202048
Table E: Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity in Constant 2015 Prices – Percentage changes (Cont...)
YearQua-rter
Information and Commu-
nication
Financial service
activities
Real estate and
Professional services activities
Admini-strative and
support services
Public admi-
nistration
Edu-cation
Health Other All indust.
at basic prices
Taxes on products
GDP at market prices
2013 1234
2014 1 1.6 13.1 4.9 -11.0 -13.4 13.4 48.3 3.8 4.0 0.1 3.7 2 -3.7 10.8 0.9 -0.3 6.4 16.7 -12.0 8.1 6.1 -7.4 5.0 3 -1.1 11.0 2.7 -8.2 -1.2 3.1 -7.1 9.4 4.0 3.2 3.9 4 15.6 8.3 4.8 13.8 14.9 2.3 19.2 7.7 10.6 7.4 10.3
2015 1 17.8 4.4 2.4 2.0 15.6 4.3 13.9 3.5 8.1 9.3 8.2 2 22.3 2.8 5.2 7.7 20.9 -1.9 26.8 0.8 4.5 12.5 5.1 3 2.8 0.8 6.2 22.8 16.1 -8.8 29.3 -0.3 4.4 9.9 4.84 5.9 0.5 6.3 -3.3 12.2 -2.6 13.1 -0.1 0.1 4.4 0.4
2016 1 3.0 1.5 5.5 -2.2 -3.7 6.9 17.9 1.6 2.4 8.8 2.9 2 2.5 0.8 3.0 -23.1 2.2 1.6 15.5 2.6 -2.9 3.8 -2.4 3 10.4 0.6 -0.5 -30.4 2.8 2.4 5.1 3.0 -1.5 -2.8 -1.6 4 7.9 1.5 -1.1 -5.1 -2.1 2.7 0.5 2.8 -0.2 3.5 0.1
2017 1 2.6 2.7 1.5 -1.6 2.4 -2.1 -3.2 1.2 -1.4 -3.6 -1.6 2 0.8 4.3 -0.3 -7.1 4.3 5.6 -2.7 0.2 0.9 -2.2 0.7 3 5.6 4.1 4.7 15.8 -2.6 -11.7 0.0 -0.5 -1.5 -2.7 -1.6 4 14.5 3.1 1.7 -11.0 6.4 1.9 24.0 -0.9 2.4 -6.9 1.6
2018 1 3.3 -0.1 3.5 -17.5 8.8 -11.5 -2.7 -0.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 5.2 -1.0 3.9 -1.3 4.1 0.4 -3.7 -0.2 4.0 6.2 4.1 3 -3.6 -0.4 -0.5 10.4 3.0 13.8 -3.6 -0.4 1.1 -3.7 0.7 4 -11.7 1.3 2.0 6.4 -14.7 1.1 -22.2 -0.9 -3.9 -2.0 -3.7
2019 1 6.1 4.2 -0.3 7.3 -14.3 0.2 -6.5 -1.5 -3.2 -4.0 -3.3 2 6.8 6.2 0.1 3.0 -1.5 2.6 -4.9 -2.2 -2.0 -3.3 -2.1 3 10.6 7.4 2.8 -18.0 0.5 2.6 -5.7 -2.4 -0.2 -5.7 -0.6 4 10.8 6.3 3.3 -9.0 32.1 5.1 -1.9 -2.1 2.8 -3.0 2.3
2020 1 6.2 2.4 2.7 -5.0 -2.5 5.8 2.3 -1.4 -0.9 1.1 -0.8
49GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Appendix 1 Methodological NotesSystem of National Accounts 2008:
The SNA 2008 is an internationally agreed methodology used for compilation of national accounts estimates published by the United Nations in co-operation with other international organizations. This means that the methodology, concepts and classifications are in accordance with the latest guidelines of an internationally agreed system of national accounts.
Quarterly GDP estimates:
Quarterly estimates of value added in real terms are less comprehensive and therefore need to be aligned to the annual real estimates. Short-term indicators are used to estimate the quarterly GDP. In terms of coverage, quarterly indicators are not as reliable as in instances where the results of annual estimates are used. Therefore, the quarterly estimates must be adapted to the independent annual estimates when such estimates become available. To this extent, the Proportional Denton Method, which is a technique that generates a series of the quarterly estimates as proportional to the indicator as possible subject to the restrictions provided by the annual data is used.
Classifications:
The estimates of value added by industry are classified according to the fourth revision of the International Standard
Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities (ISIC), with suitable adaptations for Namibian conditions. FISIM: Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured
Regional breakdown:
The following regions are represented by municipalities and town councils in respective towns that are surveyed by the NSA;Central region: WindhoekNorthern region: Okahandja, Otjiwarongo, Outjo, Grootfontein, Tsumeb, Ondangwa, Oshakati, Ongwediva, Okakarara, Rundu and Katima-MuliloEastern region: GobabisWestern region: Swakopmund, Walvis Bay, Henties Bay, Karibib, Usakos and OmaruruSouthern region: Keetmanshoop, Mariental, Karasburg, Nami≠Nüs (Lüderitz) and Rehoboth
Rounding off:
There may be rounding off differences that may occur when manually calculating figures as compared to the values published in this report. This report used the MS Excel to round off to the nearest decimal. Please refer to the excel tables.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202050
51GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Notes
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202052
Notes
53GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 2020
Notes
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - FIRST QUARTER 202054
Namibia Statistics AgencyP.O. Box 2133, FGI House, Post Street Mall,Windhoek, Namibia
Tel: +264 61 431 3200Fax: +264 61 431 3253
Email: [email protected]