Gross Domestic Product Developments GDP Team: Richard Morrison John Dowens David Jack SNAP Team:...
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Transcript of Gross Domestic Product Developments GDP Team: Richard Morrison John Dowens David Jack SNAP Team:...
Gross Domestic Product Developments
GDP Team: Richard Morrison
John Dowens
David Jack
SNAP Team: Andrew Mortimer
Table of Contents
• Updated Chainweights
• Panel Methodology replaced by ratio estimates in production
• Stratification Review in Services
• Routine Review of sources and methods across the board– Including refresh of seasonality models
• Benchmarking of Historic Series
Updated Chainweights
• Reflects new Input-Output tables for Scotland published on 13th October 2010– 1997 – 2004 Weights revised– 2005, 2006 and 2007 weights introduced
• This update is a standard methodological procedure first established in 2004.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
20.17 17.9 17.11 17.09 14.78 15.72 17.91 16.79 10.02 11.92 16.85
Construction 57.77 58.81 59.72 64.13 60.17 63.28 68.04 67.68 67.96 72.12 76.06Services 654.15 656.73 674.47 689.21 710.82 723.8 731.96 735.52 742.31 735.72 736.54
Production 267.92 266.55 248.7 229.57 214.23 197.2 182.09 180.01 179.71 180.24 170.55
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Production
Services
Construction
Agriculture, Forestryand Fishing
New Weights - ConstructionConstruction
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
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row
th
New - No Benchmark Published
Index of Production
• Panel Method replaced with ratio estimates– Panel of representative companies is
replaced with statistical estimation of each industrial sector
– Enhances coverage and improves estimate quality – better exploitation of sample
– Reviewed and consolidated some subseries
• Methodology change was approved at SESCG in October 2008
Production - Effect of move to Ratio Estimates (with New Weights)
Production
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
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th
New Estimates without Benchmark Published
Services Stratification and other general review
• Service sector sample strata have historically been based on turnover strata.
• Moved now to employment– More stable over time– Structural sources have better employment data– Consistent with Production
• All seasonal modelling has been reviewed– Confirming and honing existing models and
parameters
• Introduced long trailed Atkinson Health Measure
Services – Effects of ChangesServices
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
nu
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row
th
New - No Benchmark Published
Benchmarking GVA to IO• Output method is a short termshort term indicator
• IO more reliable in the long run– Although doesn’t have quarterly resolution
• Benchmarking IO totals improves long term estimates while retaining resolution
• Series are benchmarked 1994 to 2007
• This methodology was approved by SESCG in the October 2008 meeting.
Effects - ServicesServices
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
nu
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row
th
benchmarks ON benchmarks OFF Published
Effects– ProductionProduction
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
nu
al G
row
th
Benchmarks ON Benchmarks OFF Published
Effects - ConstructionConstruction
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
nu
al G
row
th
Benchmarking ON Benchmarking OFF Published
Effects Agriculture Forestry and Fishing
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
nu
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row
th
Benchmarks ON Benchmarks OFF Published
Effects - HeadlineTotal GVA
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
nu
al G
row
th
benchmarks ON benchmarks OFF published
• Please keep an eye on ScotStat mailings as we plan to review the format of our publication and will welcome feedback
Total GVA
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
An
nu
al G
row
th
benchmarks ON benchmarks OFF published