The New Interactive Verification Program at WGRFC

Gregg Waller

Our Involvement…Volunteered to be an test site – installed under

ATAN…

Ran Apr 2007 national statistics with old verification system

Installed new IVP and re-ran April- achieved comparable results

Provided feedback to developer

Continue to run to provide monthly stats, and gain experience

What we have learned… OB8.2 IVP Beta Test Site…

New Statistics: Error – Root Mean Square (RMSE), Max Error (MAXERR), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Error (ME) Categorical – Probability of Detection (POD), Hydrologic False Alarm Rate (HFAR), Traditional False Alarm

Rate (TFAR), Over Forecast Rate (OFR), Under Forecast Rate (UFR), Critical Success Index or Gilbert Score (CSI)

Quantile and Extremum - Minimum, 25% Quantile (QUAN 0.25), Median, 75% Quantile (QUAN 0.75), and Maximum

Lead Time Statistics – Average Lead Time of Detection (AVGLDTM) Sample Size – Statistic Sample Size (NUM SAMPLES)

Ease of Use of existing statistics Better/enhanced GUI

Group manager Graphics

More detail “Customizable”

Can Identify pairs for use in graphic generation  Ease of Use

We ran side by side with existing IVP suite…OB8.2 is both easier and quicker for WGRFC

  There will be a workshop to train familiarize the verification focal points August 14 th – 16th. 

New Statistics…Error – Root Mean Square (RMSE), Max Error

(MAXERR), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Error (ME)

Categorical – Probability of Detection (POD), Hydrologic False Alarm Rate (HFAR), Traditional False Alarm Rate (TFAR), Over Forecast Rate (OFR), Under Forecast Rate (UFR), Critical Success Index or Gilbert Score (CSI)

Quantile and Extremum - Minimum, 25% Quantile (QUAN 0.25), Median, 75% Quantile (QUAN 0.75), and Maximum

Lead Time Statistics – Average Lead Time of Detection (AVGLDTM)

Sample Size – Statistic Sample Size (NUM SAMPLES)

Example…

Ease of Use and the GUISet Times

Set Lead Times

Set Issuance

Set TS

Select Locations

Select the Location Manager

Location Manager

Choose Your LocationChoose Your TSSelect “Choose” ButtonClose“Create Display”

Graphics…More detail“Customizable”

Can Identify pairs for use in graphic generation  

Ease of generation

Examples…GNLT2 and VICT2

More on GNLT2 and VICT2

You can identify specific pairs from specific forecasts if needed…

More Examples

More Examples

More to come…There will be a workshop to train familiarize

the verification focal points August 14th – 16th.

Questions or comments.