Greenbrier Hotel, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia June 17, 2011
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Greenbrier Hotel, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia June 17, 2011 Situation and Outlook for Corn and Soybeans Presented to: National Chicken Council Board of Directors
description
Situation and Outlook for Corn and Soybeans Presented to: National Chicken Council Board of Directors. Greenbrier Hotel, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia June 17, 2011. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand. U.S. Corn Yield. May WASDE forecast based on expected planting progress as of May 15 th. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Greenbrier Hotel, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia June 17, 2011
Greenbrier Hotel, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia
June 17, 2011
Situation and Outlook for Corn and Soybeans
Presented to:National Chicken Council
Board of Directors
May 11, 2011
U.S. Corn Supply and Demand2010/11 estimate
2011/12 forecast
Change from 2010/11Percent
Planted area (million acres) 88.2 92.2 4.5Harvested area (million acres) 81.4 85.1 4.5Yield (bushels per acre) 152.8 158.7 3.9
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 1,708 730 -57.3Production 12,447 13,505 8.5Total supply 14,180 14,255 0.5
Feed and residual 5,150 5,100 -1.0Food, seed, and industrial 6,400 6,455 0.9Ethanol 5,000 5,050 1.0Domestic use 11,550 11,555 0.0
Exports 1,900 1,800 -5.3Total use 13,450 13,355 -0.7
Ending stocks 730 900 23.3Percent
Stocks to use ratio 5.4 6.7Dollars per bushel
Average market price 5.10/5.40 5.50/6.50 14.32
3
U.S. Corn Yield
157.4
161.7
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bu./ac. Actual yield 1960-10 Trend 1990-10 Trend May 2011 WASDE
1960-10 trend
1990-10 trend
158.7
May WASDE forecast based on expected planting progress as of
May 15th
May 11, 20114
5
6
Planting Progress, July Temps, and Corn Yields2009, 2010, & 2011P
Units 2009 2010 2011P
Mid-May planting progress
Percent planted 50 92 66
Avg. July temperature
Deg. f. 70.0 76.8 74.6
Final Yield Bu./ac. 164.7 152.8 158.7
Deviation from 1990-10 trend
Bu./ac. + 7.7 - 6.6 - 3.0
May 11, 20117
June 9, 2011
U.S. Corn Supply and Demand2010/11 estimate
2011/12 forecast
Change from last month
Change from 2010/11
Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 88.2 90.7 -1.6 2.8Harvested area (million acres) 81.4 83.2 -2.2 2.1Yield (bushels per acre) 152.8 158.7 0.0 3.9
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 1,708 730 0.0 -57.3Production 12,447 13,200 -2.3 6.1Total supply 14,180 13,950 -2.1 -1.6
Feed and residual 5,150 5,000 -2.0 -2.9Food, seed, and industrial 6,400 6,455 0.0 0.9Ethanol 5,000 5,050 0.0 1.0Domestic use 11,550 11,455 -0.9 -0.8
Exports 1,900 1,800 0.0 -5.3Total use 13,450 13,255 -0.7 -1.4
Ending stocks 730 695 -22.8 -4.8Percent
Stocks to use ratio 5.4 5.2Dollars per bushel
Average market price 5.20/5.50 6.00/7.00 8.3 21.5
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June 9, 20119
Planting Progress and Changes in Acreage
• Model results indicate changes from intended acreage:
• Declines totaling 1.95 million acres in following States:
• Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin
• Increases totaling 0.45 million acres in following States:
• Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska• Illinois unchanged
• Net decline in planted area 1.5 million acres
June 9, 201110
Flood Events• May flooding along the lower Ohio and
Mississippi River valleys
• Early information suggests corn acreage losses from 100,000 to 150,000 acres
• June flooding in Missouri River valley
• Emergency discharges by Army Corps of Engineers through summer
• Early information suggests corn acreage losses of 250,000-300,000 acres
• Additional reduction in harvested area projected at 400,000 acres
June 9, 201111
Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, June 8, 2011, http://omaha.com/assets/images/OW599664.JPG
Forecast Missouri River Flood Zone
June 9, 201112
Renewable Fuel Standard
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Bil. gal. Conventional Biofuel RFS Total RFS
Source: Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.
13
U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption
Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).
130
135
140
145
150
155
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F 2014F 2016F
Bil. gallons Actual EIA AEO Dec. 2007 EIA STEO Jun 2011
8.9 bil. gal.
14
U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sep 2006 Sep 2007 Sep 2008 Sep 2009 Sep 2010 Sep 2011
Bil. gallons/year
Growing production capacity
Calendar Year Conventional Biofuels RFS
Source: Production capacity from Renewable Fuels Association. RFS from Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.
20072006
2008
2009 20102011 2012
15
Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs / Spot prices
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
9/7/07 3/21/08 10/3/08 4/17/09 10/30/09 5/14/10 11/26/10 6/10/11
$/gal.
Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices.
- 15 cents / gal. (6/10/11)
16
Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
9/1/09 1/9/10 5/19/10 9/26/10 2/3/11 6/13/11
$/gal.
Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures.
Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB)
Ethanol
$0.23
17
Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Spreads
-0.90
-0.70
-0.50
-0.30
-0.10
0.10
0.30
0.50
0.70
9/1/09 1/9/10 5/19/10 9/26/10 2/3/11 6/13/11
$/gal. Spread Blender Credit
Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures.
45-cent blender credit
(Ethanol – RBOB)
Blending incentive (6/13/11) = $0.68
18
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jan 06 May 07 Sep 08 Jan 10 May 11
Mil. gallons All Finished Blends Ethanol Blends
U.S. Weekly Gasoline ProductionAll Finished Blends and Ethanol Blends
Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration.
19
6
1114
24
31
3537 38
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1999/00 2002/03 2005/06 2008/09 2011/12P
Bil. bushels
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45PercentEthanol corn use Ethanol share of corn use (%)
U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 9, 2011.
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U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand2010/11 estimate
2011/12 forecast
Change from last month
Change from 2010/11
Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 53.6 57.7 -0.5 7.7Harvested area (million acres) 47.6 47.8 -0.6 0.3Yield (bushels per acre) 46.4 43.1 1.4 -7.1
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 976 809 -3.6 -17.1Production 2,208 2,058 0.7 -6.8Imports 100 110 0.0 10.0Total supply 3,284 2,977 -0.5 -9.3
Food use 930 945 0.0 1.6Seed 80 75 0.0 -6.0Feed and residual 170 220 0.0 29.4Domestic use 1,180 1,240 0.0 5.1
Exports 1,295 1,050 0.0 -18.9Total use 2,475 2,290 0.0 -7.5
Ending stocks 809 687 -2.2 -15.1Percent
Stocks to use ratio 32.7 30.0Dollars per bushel
Average market price 5.70 7.00/8.40 2.7 35.1
June 9, 201121
Wheat (SRW) vs. Corn FuturesCBOT July 2011 Contracts
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 Jun 11
Wht $/Crn $
Source: USDA-AMS.
Wheat =Corn lb. for lb. (1.07 price ratio)
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June 9, 2011
U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand2010/11 estimate
2011/12 forecast
Change from last month
Change from 2010/11
Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 77.4 76.6 0.0 -1.0Harvested area (million acres) 76.6 75.7 0.0 -1.2Yield (bushels per acre) 43.5 43.4 0.0 -0.1
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 151 180 5.9 19.3Production 3,329 3,285 0.0 -1.3Imports 15 15 0.0 0.0Total supply 3,495 3,480 0.3 -0.4
Crush 1,650 1,655 0.0 0.3Seed and residual 125 115 0.0 -8.3Domestic use 1,775 1,770 0.0 -0.3
Exports 1,540 1,520 -1.3 -1.3Total use 3,315 3,290 -0.6 -0.8
Ending stocks 180 190 18.7 5.7Percent
Stocks to use ratio 5.4 5.8Dollars per bushel
Average market price 11.40 13.00/15.00 7.7 22.8
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China Soybean Imports
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/1
20
10
20
30
40
50
60Million Tons
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June 9, 2011
U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand
2010/11 estimate
2011/12 forecast
Change from
last month
Change from
2010/11Thousand short tons Percent Percent
Beginning stocks 302 300 0.0 -0.5Production 39,683 39,285 0.0 -1.0Imports 165 165 0.0 0.0Total supply 40,150 39,750 0.0 -1.0
Domestic use 30,600 30,800 0.0 0.7Exports 9,250 8,650 0.0 -6.5Total use 39,850 39,450 0.0 -1.0
Ending stocks 300 300 0.0 0.0Dollars/short ton
Average market price 350.00 375/405 6.8 11.4
25
U.S. Meat Production
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
130
135
140
145
150Index
26
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/1210
20
30
40
50
Soybean Other Corn by-products
U.S. Protein ConsumptionMillion Short Tons
27
Soybean Meal Prices
Oct-0
0
Mar-
01
Aug-01
Jan-02
Jun-02
Nov-02
Apr-03
Sep-0
3
Feb-0
4
Jul-04
Dec-0
4
May-0
5
Oct-0
5
Mar-
06
Aug-06
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-0
8
Feb-0
9
Jul-09
Dec-0
9
May-1
0
Oct-1
0
Mar-
11
Aug-11
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Dollars/Ton
28
Soybean Meal – Corn Price Ratio
Oct-0
0
Mar-
01
Aug-01
Jan-02
Jun-02
Nov-02
Apr-03
Sep-0
3
Feb-0
4
Jul-04
Dec-0
4
May-0
5
Oct-0
5
Mar-
06
Aug-06
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-0
8
Feb-0
9
Jul-09
Dec-0
9
May-1
0
Oct-1
0
Mar-
11
Aug-11
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Ratio
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June 9, 2011
U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand
2010/11 estimate
2011/12 forecast
Change from
last month
Change from
2010/11Million pounds Percent Percent
Beginning stocks 3,358 2,823 14.2 -15.9Production 19,090 18,900 0.0 -1.0Imports 175 185 0.0 5.7Total supply 22,623 21,908 1.6 -3.2
Domestic use 16,600 17,950 0.0 8.1Methyl ester 2,400 3,500 0.0 45.8Food, feed, other 14,200 14,450 0.0 1.8
Exports 3,200 1,800 12.5 -43.8Total use 19,800 19,750 1.0 -0.3
Ending stocks 2,823 2,158 7.5 -23.6Cents per pound
Average market price 54.00 58.00/62.00 3.4 11.1
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U.S. Biodiesel Production
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
0
510
15
20
2530
35
40
4550
55
60
Mandate SBO Share
Million gallons percent SBO
31
Soybean Oil Price and Stocks-to-Use
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Cents per lbPercent
32
June 9, 2011
U.S. Meat Production and Prices2011
forecast2012
forecastChange from
last monthChange from
2011Production Billion pounds Percent PercentBeef 26.27 25.01 -0.3 -4.8Pork 22.61 22.91 -0.2 1.3Broilers 37.39 38.04 -0.3 1.7Turkey 5.73 5.78 -0.7 0.8Total meat 92.78 92.53 -0.3 -0.3
Prices Dollars/cwtSteers 112.39 115.75 0.0 3.0Hogs 63.36 63.75 0.0 0.6
Cents/lbBroilers 83.1 85.0 -1.2 2.3Turkey 99.2 96.3 0.0 -2.9
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June 9, 2011
U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds
2011 forecast
2012 forecast
Change from
last month
Change from 2011
Exports Percent PercentBeef 2,593 2,515 2.7 -3.0Pork 4,872 4,775 0.0 -2.0Broilers 6,480 6,700 0.0 3.4Turkey 635 620 3.3 -2.4Mature Chickens 87 90 0.0 3.4Total Meat 14,683 14,714 0.6 0.2
ImportsBeef 2,181 2,475 0.0 13.5
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June 9, 2011
End of Presentation
