Green schemes 2012_npe_eo_y lecture perth v9

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© Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 2012 1

Australia’s Green Electricity Schemes

Costs and BenefitsPerth

13 February 2013

Dr Robert Barr

Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd

2012 National Professional Electrical Engineer of the Year - National Lecture Tour

Perfect Storm of Rising Electricity Costs

• Conventional Generation

• AEMO Market Charges

• Metering

• Network Charges– N-1 type regulatory requirements

– Somerville Report (2004)

– P.M. says “gold plating”

• Green Electricity Schemes– Carbon Tax

Electric Power Consulting Pty Ltd 2

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Solar Photovoltaic


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Wind


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Hydro


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6 x 50MW Peaking Plant – Snowy Hydro

Valley Power, Latrobe Valley, Victoria Australia 300MW Open Cycle Natural Gas


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Eraring Power Station


4x 660 MW Black Coal

Yallourn Power Station


1,490 MW Brown Coal – 4 units

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Tallawarra Power Station


435 MW Combined Cycle Natural Gas

Muja Power Station


2 x 200 MW + 2 x 227 MW Coal

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Electricity Green Schemes

• National Schemes– Large Renewable Energy Target (LRET)

• includes large wind, solar & hydro

– Small Scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES)• including solar water heaters, heat pumps, solar panel

systems, small-scale wind systems, small hydro

– Carbon Tax


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Electricity Green Schemes

• NSW Schemes– Energy Saving Scheme (ESS)

• incentives to save energy

– Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme (GHGR)• CO2 abatement scheme – targets with penalties

– Solar feed-in tariff (was gross – now net)

• Other States– Solar feed-in tariffs

– Others?


Energy Environmental Objectives

• Resource Sustainability– How many years can we keep up our current use of resources

before they run out?

• Reduced Carbon Emissions– How many tonnes of CO2 emissions/year can be saved?

• National Energy Independence – Can we sustain our energy needs without undue dependence on

overseas supplies?


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Australian Fuel Sustainability

Fuel

Proven Reserves (approximate)

At current production rates

At Australian usage rates

Brown Coal 1,000 years 1,000 years

Black Coal 100 years 240 years

Natural Gas 72 years 112 years


Carbon Intensity

FuelTonnes of CO2 /MWh

Brown Coal 1.4

Black Coal 0.9

Natural GasOpen Cycle Gas

Turbine0.65

Natural GasCombined Cycle Gas Turbine

0.4

Hydro 0

Wind 0

Solar PV 0


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Construction Cost


$ Capital Construction Cost/MW

Brown Coal 1.4 High

Black Coal 0.9 High


Turbine0.65 Low


0.4 Medium

Hydro 0Extremely

high

Wind 0 High

Solar PV 0 Very high


Dispatch



Dispatch Capable

Brown Coal 1.4 High Yes

Black Coal 0.9 High Yes


Turbine0.65 Low Yes


0.4 Medium Yes

Hydro 0Extremely

highYes

Wind 0 High No

Solar PV 0 Very high No


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Ability to Rapidly Change Output



Dispatch Capable

Ability to RapidlyChange Output

Brown Coal 1.4 High Yes No

Black Coal 0.9 High Yes No


Turbine0.65 Low Yes Yes


0.4 Medium Yes Moderate

Hydro 0Extremely

highYes Yes

Wind 0 High No Nil

Solar PV 0 Very high No Nil


Wind• Every 100MW of wind generation requires

about 90 MW of conventional generation for backup

• All wind generation needs a “dancing partner”

• Wind is only financially viable with LRET

• Will most likely be the main method of reaching the 20% renewable target for 2020


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Solar Photovoltaic• Lends itself to distributed use at the

domestic level

• At 60 c/kWh and other green scheme subsidies it becomes attractive to customers

• Is causing network stress


• Benefits– Reduce network losses

– Delay augmentations?

– Voltage support?

– Green kWhs?

Embedded Generation Issues

Negatives◦ Voltage rise◦ Cold load pick up◦ Dual power flow analysis◦ Some network

augmentations required

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Modeled Conventional Dispatch


Modeled Small Wind


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Modeled Large Scale Wind


13% Wind

SA Wind


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Modeled Large Scale WindConstant Load – Dancing Partner


30% Wind

70% of 0.65 Tonnes CO2/MWH OCG= 0.45 Tonnes CO2/MWH

Compare with 0.4 Tonnes CO2/MWH for CCG

CO2 Emissions


+ >

Wind OCG CCG

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AEMO Data


Carbon Tax

Conclusions• Renewables are only viable with government

legislated green schemes

• Wind and solar PV generation require large scale conventional “backup” power generation –dancing partners

• Economics will drive much of the “back up” generation to be open cycle gas:– Capital cost

– Higher CO2 producing plant


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Conclusions

• The current policy settings are increasing the use of natural gas

– reducing Australia’s sustainability in terms of energy reserves

• Greenhouse gas savings are coming mainly from:

– the switch from coal to natural gas

– Less energy use due to high energy prices and price elasticity

• Wind and solar PV in their present form are making little or no direct contribution to CO2 savings

• New energy storage breakthroughs are required to make renewables viable


Important Issues• Increased focus needed on:

– end use energy efficiency

– Using less electricity

– electricity network losses

• Research

– energy storage

• Change of emphasis from:

– “feel good” green schemes to policies that have some solid engineering logic

• Electricity Network costs

– getting away from feast and famine capital investments

– improved performance of regulators

– taking a longer term view


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Questions?


Green schemes 2012_npe_eo_y lecture perth v9

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